Most Intriguing Teams and Players for 2024-25 Season
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And now, The Low Post. Welcome to The Low Post podcast. It's after Labor Day. We are rapidly careening, careening I say, toward an NBA season that feels a little bit wide open considering that a 64-win team just won the NBA championship and brought everybody back. That's the Boston Celtics, of course. Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum should be coming back with chips on their shoulder. Jalen Brown got snubbed.

By the Team USA in the Olympics, Jason Tatum got benched. Rudy Gobert got benched.

Why is it that somehow Kevin Pelton, despite the fact that they have an ascendant superstar in Anthony Edwards and beat the Denver Nuggets on the road in game seven of the second round of the playoffs last year, as big a challenge as there is, I just can't quite get all the way there. I got trust issues with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Boston also has Porzingis out to start the season, and no one famously has repeated since the Kevin Durant Warriors in 2018. That said, on the other end of the bracket,

I would bet big, big, big money if betting were something I would ever do or recommend on Oklahoma City being the number one seed in the Western Conference. And yet...

When you talk about championships, they are still so young. And I don't know if I'm ready for that. The Nuggets, they have this whole Jamal Murray thing. What happened to Jamal Murray? He stunk in the playoffs other than two gigantic shots against the Lakers. He stunk in the Olympics. He still doesn't have an extension. There are rumblings, rumblings that the coaching staff in the front office or at least the head coach in the front office aren't exactly seeing eye to eye in Denver to a degree even unusual for the NBA. The Mavs.

Can the Mavs do this again? Having remade their team, Clay Thompson's and Derek Jones Jr.'s out. There's all a bunch of changes. There's even a little skepticism about the Knicks. I've heard a lot of people tell me in the last week, are the Knicks really going to be that much better? And I said to them, maybe not in win total or seeding, but in playoff equity, you're damn right. They're going to be better. They're going to be more well-prepared to have a functional offense in the playoffs. Although they do have this Julius Randle situation hanging over their head. The West is so murky.

KP, it's almost enough to make you wonder, have we given up too fast on the old guard of the Western Conference? The Lakers, their top two guys just dominated the whole Olympics for Team USA. LeBron and AD, they have a lot of continuity. The Suns.

Their two guys played quite well, especially Kevin Durant toward the end of the Olympics. Devin Booker became a Steve Kerr favorite. They added Tyus Jones. They have some pretty decent depth. If we all count it out, the Suns too fast. The Warriors just signed Steph Curry to a one-year $63 million extension. And damn right, you pay Steph Curry all the money. He is the franchise. He is the Chase Center. He is everything. He created everything there.

And they have an interesting team, DeAnthony Milton, slow-mo, Buddy Heald kind of replacing Clay, kind of interesting. They're deep. They have this Kaminga thing. Kaminga has not signed an extension yet. It's September. Could get spicy. Philly! Philly! We talked a lot about Philly, and I'll say this, Kevin Pelton. Maybe the most consequential thing that happened in the summer, other than signings, I guess,

Joel Embiid's fourth quarter against Serbia in the semifinals of the Olympics when the U.S. was down big and then crawled back in and crawled back in. And Joel Embiid, who has had a checkered big game record, a checkered crunch time playoff record, checkered, not all bad, not all good, just a little checkered. And in this past playoffs for the Sixers, admittedly playing on one knee, admittedly putting up a 50 bomb in one of the games against the Knicks.

just kind of didn't seem super comfortable with the ball in his hands late in crunch time, kind of hot potatoed it a few times. And it was like, Oh, what's going on here? He seemed damn comfortable against Serbia when right at Nikola Jokic wanted the ball played with a steel and a confidence that I don't think I've seen from him in the NBA almost ever in a moment that big, it felt like maybe the most important basketball moment of Joel Embiid's career and something that could be transformational for the Sixers. The Bucs,

If you asked 100 people, Kevin Pelton, and I've asked 25 probably in the last two days, the Bucs are either being wildly underrated or this year of the Bucs is dead or close to dead.

Many, many, many, many, many, many people, the majority easily have chosen the close to dead option, which makes me feel nervous for Bucs fans. It's going to be a fun season. And we haven't even talked about all the guys who could be available if teams like Atlanta or Cleveland or Chicago even start worse than expected. Chicago is not expected to start very well at all. It's going to be fun. Kevin Pelton, how are you?

I'm doing well. Yeah, in some ways, not a lot has happened since we last spoke. I think the last time I was on the podcast was in Las Vegas during NBA Summer League. And in other ways, obviously, with the Olympics, a lot has happened since then. Did you agree with me on the NBA? I was watching that game in the Balkans with Balkan people who thought... I'm very curious what that was like.

Oh, they were every, it was going to happen. They were, it was going to happen. They were, they, they thought, you know, the upset was going to happen. They were all morning the next day, randomly in a story that I can't even, it's too convoluted to even tell the connection. I ran into pneumonia, be Elitza's brother the next day, randomly. And he was like that three, we had an off an offensive rebound with two 35 left in the game. We had it, but I, I'm,

I was watching that game and I was looking at Joel Embiid's facial expressions, looking at his body language, looking at the results. And I was like, if I were Daryl Morey or Elton Brand or Nick Nurse, it's like, yeah, the Team USA thing was kind of rocky. He didn't play great. It's like, is he really going to start every game? For that moment alone, for that stretch from like six minutes left in the fourth quarter to three minutes left in the fourth quarter, that was like I'm doing backflips from one of those guys.

Yeah, you triggered an interesting thought because you mentioned the West's old guard and there was so much discussion, I think even going into the Olympics about this is an opportunity for Steph and LeBron and KD who might not have another chance to play for an NBA title. This could be the last like really, really big stage of their NBA career. And I hadn't really thought about Joel Embiid, this being the biggest stage

of his professional career in the same way because of the fact that I do still think he's got those opportunities ahead of him given his age and the addition of Paul George to the Sixers. But those are not guarantees and it was a really important moment. I think going back to the playoffs, I think the understated element of it is not only that he wasn't

100% physically because of the injury. It was also just the way his conditioning was off, having gone from not playing for two and a half months or whatever it was, ramping up a little bit, always ramping up at the end of the regular season, and then being thrust out there for like 40 plus minutes of extremely intense basketball against one of the league's most physical teams. And Isaiah Hartenstein defending him, you know,

Fatigue makes cowards of us all. And I think that's what happened to Embiid in the fourth quarter of those games. But as you talk about the ramping, he was, he, by the Serbia game, he had ramped. There was no more ramping to be done. That was the game the USA needed him for. He was there. He came up huge in it. And I'll tell you, I watched the gold medal game at a very crowded bar with fans from all, every country, most of them rooting against team USA, other than a select pocket of Americans that was over in the corner and

And I give France a ton of credit. Obviously, Yabusele is now a sixer. We'll talk about him. Wemby was just up for all of it. Just like you can't even... The degree to which he's exceeded the hype on every stage possible is almost kind of ridiculous given how young he is and how relatively inexperienced he is on an NBA level. And I thought...

I was texting with a bunch of people in the lead up to the game. I thought we were going to blow out France. I thought it was not even going to be a game. They just, I just didn't think they were going to be able to keep up offensively. I thought the Serbia, you knew there'd be a game. You knew there'd be a nail biter game. You knew there'd be a gut check game. And it always seems to unfold the same way. Team USA falls behind. The other team's hot from three, you know, the runs coming. And then it's just like this fury, this avalanche of like steel, dunk, steel, three steel. What just happened in 35 seconds? Team USA scored eight points.

I thought they were going to blow out France. And then Curry saved us in the end, went bananas. The whole bar was just cackling with laughter. Fans of all the teams, all the countries that were cheering against Team USA were by the third or fourth three of the last two minutes and 45 seconds were just cackling with glee. And it felt like, well, thank you, Steph, because we got out of there before Wemby leveled up another leap.

I was in San Francisco that weekend for the final and it was fascinating. I don't think it was necessarily Warriors fans because, you know, I was in touristy, walking around downtown and, you know, thereabouts, but like pockets of people just like, hey, did you see what just happened? Or like someone coming out of a bar celebrating right after it. It was fascinating.

It was a tremendous fun and like a moment that like you, I didn't expect the semifinals. My story is I was watching that and I accidentally knocked out the power to my cable box and it took me entirely too long to figure out that I could have just streamed the game using my, you know, mobile connection on my phone. But I missed like a crucial stretch of a minute during the fourth quarter, right after, you know, Serbia had taken that hugely going into the third quarter. That was the moment where I was like,

No, it's not happening. It's too big a deficit now. It's insurmountable. And the fury was there all right. That's always my favorite scenario. Like when the Warriors were in their dynastic prime, like when they were down 15 in the middle of the third quarter, it's just like... Always the third quarter. Always the third quarter. Because the third quarter was going to be where they were going to make their run. Will this... Either this is going to be a tremendously fun comeback or we're going to see an upset here. Like there was guaranteed a good entertaining outcome.

By the way, just before we transitioned into the actual podcast, although this is relevant, Gobert, I mentioned Gobert getting benched and there was some, I don't know if it was confusion, but was he injured? Was he not injured? How injured was he? Um,

Was that the reason for the decline in minutes? I just got to give Rudy Gobert credit. When it goes bad, it just goes so bad to such a comical degree. Like in every possible way from the stuff with the phones when COVID was coming to like, it's not just a buzzer beater. It's Luka Doncic hitting a buzzer beater and then talking so much nasty trash right in your face where we can all read your lips to like, he got benched, not in the NBA. He got benched for team France in the Olympics. Yeah.

And I understand they have two centers and they need to play Wemby at center. And can you imagine if they had Embiid, how crazy that would have been? But it's just, it's never just a simple sort of backsliding.

bad thing and i do have trust issues with minnesota more than i should have given what they accomplished in the playoffs given that they have anthony edwards who is ready for all of it and that leads me to my first question kevin pelton my first assignment for you was you know free agency happens it's a blur you take stock and like july 7th okay who went where let me look at the rotate blah blah blah and then you kind of put it to bed and then you come back to the teams and the

the way I get ready for the season is that I go team by team and I try to sketch out their rotation. What are their positions of strength? What's a potential stylistic weakness or position of weakness? And I've gone through all 30 teams now. And when I do that, there's always three or four teams that I'm like, Oh man,

I don't feel as good about that team now that I've really dug in as I did in the afterglow of free agency. Or, oh, maybe I kind of underestimated what that team did in the offseason. I feel a little better about them. And so I wanted you to pick a couple teams, positive or negative, that on September 4th you feel better or worse than in a real way than you did on July 7th.

Yeah, I guess I interpreted it a different way. I was looking at it more in terms of like the late stage free agency moves. And that led to two of the teams that you talked about in the intro, the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns, who both came away with incredible bargains at the minimum free agency, which is both

All both of those teams had to offer because of the fact that their second apron teams and Milwaukee getting Gary Trent jr. To fill that spot vacated by Malik Beasley, who had signed a slightly larger one-year deal with the Pistons after playing for the minimum and starting, you know, throughout the season at shooting guard for them. And then Phoenix in Tyus Jones, like they had already signed a minimum backup point guard in, in Monte Morris. And,

Jones is basically just like the better version of Monte Morris in terms of younger, a bit better as a shooter, more dynamic as a playmaker. And, you know, Phoenix, you mentioned Booker had a terrific Olympics, I think still an underrated one because people are putting Anthony Davis ahead of him in the playoffs.

you know, USA basketball pecking order from the Olympics. And I think through the group stage games, that was definitely true. But in the, the metal rounds, it was a bead playing a lot of minutes against Serbia. It was a lot of small ball against France to, to deal with their lineups. And Booker was the guy that Steve Kerr would not take off the court along with Kevin Durant, like two of the four guys who played the most minutes for USA in the Olympics were members of the Phoenix suns. And I always had questions about the idea of them, like devotee, a lot of resources, uh,

To a traditional point guard, given the challenges that that is going to present in late games defensively, can you keep Tyus Jones, Devin Booker, and Grayson Allen all out there? Probably not. I think you're going to need, whether it's Josh Okogie or Royce O'Neal or someone maybe they trade for midseason using Okogie's contract.

to be the defensive stopper alongside those units, but they didn't have to devote resources. They just took a minimum and, you know, slightly added to their luxury tax to get this guy who is exactly the kind of caretaker point guard that they really needed given their turnover woes last season. Yeah. Let's start with the sons then, because they were on my list too, as, as I, I feel like,

slightly better about them than I did two months ago. Their starting five is going to be very likely Tyus Jones, the big three in Nurkic, which means Grayson Allen now becomes a bench player and his minutes will be interesting to monitor because, and that does, I think a lot,

a little bit changed the complexion of the Suns, both because they have a traditional point guard and how defenses will guard Phoenix. Because you would see some teams put their point guards on Bradley Beal, put their smallest defenders on Bradley Beal and try to hide a bigger player on Grayson Allen.

you can't really do that anymore. The point guards are going to guard Tyus Jones, which means if you want to hunt mismatches, you're going to have to involve not Bradley Beal necessarily as often, but Tyus Jones. But the question becomes teams that have two big men or an older power forward, where is that guy going to hide? And there's really not going to be a safe hiding place for them. Some of them are going to have to guard Kevin Durant like Cat did and did decently, I thought, in Minnesota's just complete humiliation of Phoenix in the first round of the playoffs. But again,

Um, it, it does beef up their bench, which is now, as you said, Monte Morris, Grayson Allen. I have a Kogi Royce O'Neill Mason Plumlee rounding out the rotation. Obviously they'll stagger guys. So one of the big three, if not two of the big three will be on the floor at all times.

Plumlee is a big upgrade over Drew Eubanks, who just kind of shows some flashes and didn't didn't quite earn Frank Vogel's trust. You know, Bull Bull is still hanging around. They're optimistic that the rookies that they drafted can contribute. There's some decent quality depth here. It's it's it's a deeper team, a little bit more well-rounded a team.

And I do think, and I don't know if you agree, I don't know if, have you done your wind projections yet or no? Not yet. I'm still tweaking the projections because last year was not a very good year for them at all. Well, do you agree that Oklahoma City is going to be the number one seed? Oh yeah, yeah.

Yeah, I think they're going to, if not run away with the West in the regular season. I don't know if they're going to make the finals, but I think they're going to win the number one seed pretty comfortably. But I do think I went through all the teams and fair or not, there are questions about some of the teams that have been toward the top of the West. You know, this presumed top four of Oklahoma City, Denver, Minnesota, Dallas. I think you can sort of dent almost all of those teams other than Oklahoma City as a regular season wins team and as a playoff equity team. We've talked a lot about

who Denver lost in free agency and Jamal Murray struggles and all of that. There is a little bit void is too strong a word, but some, one of these teams in the next tier is going to have a better season than we expect and get further than we expect. And I think Phoenix is certainly a candidate to that. I like what they did. My question is just a, uh,

the same you know when they have Jones Beal Booker Durant on the floor at all times are they going to have the right balance in their offense and part of that is I had one scout tell me

I asked, I was talking to Scott yesterday. I said, well, what do you like? Do you really want to just like have Tyus Jones running the offense with those three guys on the floor? I know everyone thought they needed a point guard. You want to take the ball out of their hands. And he said, maybe in some half court possessions, but I expect the sons to try to run and get those other guys going in transition. I thought that was kind of interesting take. And of course we didn't mention Mike Budenholzer, who is a great, great coach, certainly a great regular season coach and has won a championship. I'm,

I guess my skepticism is both the quote one ball problem and just making sure you maximize everybody and hunt the right matchups, which they did not do. Their offense just melted down into a morass of nothingness in the playoffs. And again,

I don't know what the roadmap is here again to an above average defense. I realized they had technically an above average defense last year. I believe they were 13th, but they're just so small and so soft and so vulnerable on the glass that I don't, I like Royce O'Neal. He's undersized for, for a wing stopper and certainly for a small ball four. Um,

I like a Kogi fine. It's just, you know, you know that coaches are going to lose trust in him because he's not going to make shots. And so you mentioned he's a human trade exception, but I don't know. I feel, I feel better about this team. What do you like? What is their roadmap to a good enough defense? Or is it just our offenses are good enough defense because we're going to score all the time.

I mean, I think it's similar to last year. Like I think, you know, Frank Vogel got a lot out of this team defensively. The reason that he was fired after one season fairly or not was not about what they did defensively. It was entirely about the offense. And I think a lot of that was how high the turnover rate was. And that's where, you know, you bring in the two point guards with the best assist to turnover ratios in NBA history. You hope that is going to help that even if it, you know, takes the ball out of the hands of guys that like to play with,

in isolations a lot. And look, that's something that Milwaukee did with Chris Middleton was kind of one of the interesting tension points when Bud came, came in there was how much he liked to isolate and shoot in the mid range. And, you know, he was able to not completely transform his game, but maybe evolve a little bit, you know, more of those ISO shots became threes instead of twos, things like that. And that was part of the tweak that helped Milwaukee kind of unlock everything offensively along with,

adding Brooke Lopez at the same time that they signed Bud. So the Suns are not going to have as dramatic roster changes. It's going to be a pure test of, hey, can Mike Budenholzer just get more out of this same group than Frank Vogel was able to offensively?

What did you think of my general rundown of the landscape in the West? You know, I just sort of riffed on Minnesota, Denver, Dallas. Like what do the old guard of Golden State Lakers, Suns, whatever? I didn't mention the Kings, the Pelicans, who have a huge number of questions. Was there any team in there that you thought, huh, it seems like we disagree about that team or I'm higher or lower on them or like or just more broadly?

I think I asked you this two months ago, but who would you pick to actually come out of the West? Is it just so you're just youth youth be damned. I'm going thunder. I think you've said that it, the consensus among people you ask is either they hem and haw or they immediately pick Oklahoma city. And I'm probably in the immediately pick the thunder camp in terms of look, they, they played Dallas very close. I think that series was tied in terms of total points across all six games. Uh,

They didn't get an opportunity to play Minnesota and Denver, so we don't know what they would have looked like against them. But I don't come away from that playoffs feeling worse about them as playoff performers because of what happened to those other teams. And then they added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hardenstein and got this additional year of experience for all their young talent. So even though I would take the field over Oklahoma City, I think if I'm taking one team, it's going to be the Thunder for sure. I don't know yet.

I don't know yet. They're still so young. I mean, like you, you out, they were very good in the playoffs last year. They did catch a break in the first round, getting the Pelicans without Zion and with Brandon Ingram, just coming back from injury, a playoff series. So bad for Brandon Ingram that he is, there's been like zero real trade buzz about him in the off season. And it wiped away. What was a pretty damn good playoff series performance in his first go around in the playoffs against the sons. You know,

I would be tempted to default to Denver because they have the best player. And we're going to get into our most intriguing players quickly toward the end. But I didn't have Jamal Murray on this list because it's not... He's not... Like, I kind of know what Jamal Murray is when he's healthy. And just saying if he's healthy is not that interesting of a question. But...

He does loom as the biggest wild card, maybe in the whole league right now, both because Denver has not signed him to an extension yet. That could happen at any moment. And I still do expect Denver to sign Jamal Murray to an extension or, or I would, I don't think they want to go into the season without one. I, not a lot of people have asked the question of like, well, yeah, it's cool to be down on Jamal Murray. Like he, he was not great in the playoffs last year. He was like dismally bad for Canada, but,

What is your replacement plan for Jamal Murray with Nikola Jokic in his absolute prime? That's a harder question to answer. Yeah, I mean, I don't think there is one. I think if you don't sign him to an extension, the logic would strictly be right now he's max or nothing, but the season might happen and his market might be different and we can get him for less.

So that's the other scenario that I've talked about with people in the last couple of days is what if they just play it out and get to unrestricted free agency or whatever ends up happening and they can sign him for a better deal over more years than anyone else can offer. It's just always a risk and you rarely see teams take that kind of risk with a player like Jokic. If I were confident that Jamal Murray would get back to two years ago Jamal Murray and stay healthy, I think I might default to Denver, but that's why I call him the wild card there.

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You talked about the Bucs too. I mentioned before sort of flippantly that I've asked this either or question to lots of people. Are we sleeping on the Bucs? And by that, I don't mean like, oh, people have written off the Bucs. The Bucs are dead. It's just in the sort of excitement over what the Knicks did, what the Sixers did, and the Celtics dominance of the East in the NBA all season.

the Bucs are kind of like the fourth team that people are mentioning in the East, which is not been the case for most of Giannis Attentacupo's prime. They signed Gary Trent Jr. at the end of the off season to round out their starting five. And there's a very easy intellectual case to make for a bounce back season for the Bucs. I mean, it's so obvious involving health, although Chris Middleton did just have two more surgeries and chemistry and coaching stability. We don't really even have to go into it. And yet almost unanimously, uh,

When I ask people around the league that poll question,

are we sleeping on the bucks and they're like true blue, blue chip title contenders or are the bucks, this iteration of the bucks close to being dead. It's almost unanimous that people go with close to being dead to the point that I find myself looking at my, my sheet of paper projecting their rotation and Gary Trent jr. Shot this and Torian Prince was a nice signing at the minimum. And maybe doc will actually trust one of the young guys and that guy will pop. And Bobby Portis is still good. And I find myself asking myself, well,

Like, am I just too slow to declare this team dead? I don't know. I mean, I'm not going to pick them to get out of the East, but I've been surprised at how low people I talk to are on them. Yeah, I mean, I guess it depends whether you treat last year. I mean, the fact that they haven't won a playoff series two years in a row surely factors into this. And Giannis being hurt for both of them. Right. And look, if your take is just,

Well, Giannis has to be healthy in the playoffs. Like, does that separate them from the Philadelphia 76ers? Are they are they going far in the playoffs if Joel Embiid isn't healthy? Like, I don't know that I necessarily buy that. You should be more bullish on the Sixers and the Bucks from a health standpoint. You know, while George being a factor in that, too, I suppose Tyrese Maxey is the single safest bet among the stars of either of those two teams.

I just have to believe that there is going to be better chemistry between Damian Lillard and Giannis Adekunfo offensively in year two with Doc Rivers there for a full training camp and his staff. I do think they're being slept on a little bit. I think they belong in the same tier as the Sixers and the Knicks, which was a conversation recently on the Hoop Collective. I would put them there. I would too. I would probably, if I were ranking the tier, I would put them third behind the Sixers and the Knicks.

Just because of the collective age of Dame and Brooke Lopez and Chris Middleton, and particularly Middleton's injury history the last few years. And Giannis' too, honestly. I mean, they've been fluky injuries, short-term injuries, but at the wrong time, I guess. They're a hard team to know what to make of. But I thought that one of the last episodes I did was about Gary Trent Jr., centered on Gary Trent Jr. I thought that was a home run signing for them. All right, can I give you a team? Go for it. The aforementioned Philadelphia 76ers.

I am very high on the 76ers.

I think the big three is a perfect central casting lock, lock in the puzzle pieces, big three point guard ish player wing, big complimentary players, two great defensive players, Paul George and the perfect girl, all of it. It's, and look, we all know like, yes, health in the playoffs, Joel and beats health in the playoffs. He's got to be healthy, et cetera, et cetera. It's the depth around them that as I worked out, the rotation was, uh,

Not quite as exciting as it was as they were sort of grabbing all of these bargain basement players, including just stealing Caleb Martin from the Heat.

And it's not that the depth is bad. It's just that I'm interested to see how it works in practice. So my prediction for their starting five, and this could be wrong and this could change, is Maxie, PG, and Bede is obviously the three locked in starters. I am penciling in Kelly Oubre and Caleb Martin as the fourth and fifth starters. I think there's a chance Kyle Lowry ends up in one of those spots depending on the matchups. But let's just say that that's the starting five.

Then the bench is some combination of Kyle Lowry. Okay. He's old. Eric Gordon. You can't, you struggle to remember like a single thing he did in Phoenix last year. Gur,

Gershon Yabusele, fresh off dunking LeBron James into oblivion in the Olympics in one of the all-time great highlights at the entire bar going like, what just happened? And shooting well on threes in the EuroLeague overall on the shorter three. And Andre Drummond, who's just perfect, great backup center. Everybody loves Andre Drummond as a backup center. And then you have Reggie Jackson and another. So it trends kind of small. You have McCain, the rookie they just drafted. Ricky Council, the fourth, is incredible.

Is he the fourth? Am I right about that? Yep. He's certainly had some intriguing minutes down the stretch of last season. Kenyon Martin Jr., who's part trade exception given his salary, but I've always liked him as a player. So maybe it works itself out. And obviously, look, they're going to stagger minutes. One of Maxine and Bede is going to be on the floor at all times. Two of the three,

Could be on the floor at all times in real big games. And in fact, they have a history of when Embiid's resting, they got to throw everybody else in there that's any good. I just, the depth trend's a little small, a little unknown, and a little old in a way that

makes me not worried i still think they're awesome and and i and but makes me feel like there's definitely another move that's going to come during the season to round out the team yeah i think there has to be unless kenyan martin jr really exceeds expectations and you know i was intrigued to see what he was going to be able to do with the clippers last season never really got off the ground there because he was included in the hardened trade and like even when the sixers were as injured as they were didn't end up

last season, which makes me skeptical that he is going to be part of this roster after the trade deadline in February. Yeah. I, I considered them, uh,

Uh, Yabu Sele is really interesting. The version of him that we saw in the Olympics, like it was less about not playing Gobert and more about playing Yabu Sele and women Yamate together and the everything, the things that they were able to do with their floor spacing and the quickness that Yabu Sele has at his size, which is what made him a first round pick by Danny Ainge back in the day with the Celtics.

I did run his translations of those international EuroLeague stats, and they came out about replacement level, like a minimum guy. So the bargain that I think people are kind of thinking of him as, we'll see if that proves the case, if he can exceed those. And the biggest question mark about this team, I think, is do they have enough size at the power forward spot?

And PG, you know, compensates a little bit because he's enormous for a wing and, you know, has sort of played that role in a lot of Clippers small ball lineups over the years. But, you know, Caleb Martin's giving up size. If you're going to start him at the four, Yabusele is physical, but not, not very tall necessarily for a power forward. Martin same, you know, kind of plays bigger than he is because of his, his leaping ability. Yeah.

So if is that player they're able to add midseason, could it be a six foot nine guy who can stretch the floor and defend fours? Like, if so, I feel a lot better about the Sixers going into the offseason. It turns out there's not that many of those guys and they tend to be pretty valuable when they when they do get traded. So that'll be a tall order. Yabu may not be tall.

but he has, let's call them other dimensional advantages in his body type that are frankly astonishing to look upon when you see them at close range. Um,

I love the Sixers. I think they're going to be awesome. I just, you know, look, the Celtics are the standard and it's a very, it's a very high standard to meet despite the fact that, you know, Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum were not the apple of team USA's eye when it really counted it. We all know what that team is. We all know what they just did in the playoffs, albeit against as cake a walk as you're going to get to the finals. You know, it's, but this team has the upside of,

To finally get to the conference finals in the post Iverson era and, and actually win the title. I think that big three is that good, but I just need to see the depth. Do you have another team or do you want me to pick another one? You pick another team. I didn't, I didn't end up feeling particularly strongly about anyone else besides, you know, Phoenix and Milwaukee, I suppose. I mean, yeah. This next one is, makes me a little bit sad because I'm still very excited about them. Yeah.

I'm less, and I realize I'm saying this about the team with the next truly great young player on earth.

I'm a little less optimistic about the Spurs' ability to crash the playoff party than I was two months ago after they got all the good stuff in the DeMar DeRozan trade, including Harrison Barnes, a suitable starting power forward, and signed Chris Paul to play with Wemby and sort of direct the offense and throw lobs and do all the stuff that Jeremy Sohan could not do as point Sohan for the first half of last season and just sort of a better point guard than Trey Jones.

And the only reason I'm a little worried about it is...

Right now, I would guess their starting five is Chris Paul, Devin Vassell. Love Devin Vassell. Could not be higher on Devin. I am like the president of the Devin Vassell is awesome, potentially awesome fan club. Sohan, I think, would be my choice to start in the fifth spot with Harrison Barnes and obviously Wemby starting at center. It's a nice lineup. I think it could be a good lineup. You could start Kelton Johnson in the Sohan spot. I just kind of want to surround Sohan with as much shooting as possible so he can be like

handoff guy, screener guy, random cutter guy. And that makes my bench Trey Jones. Castle probably walks into bench minutes right away. Keldon Johnson. I'm not sure he's going to be psyched about that, but whatever. Zach Collins. And then either you stagger some minutes or I don't know who's in that other spot. And because the depth beyond like the top eight or nine, depending on your taste in the likes of Malachi Branham and Blake Wesley,

is pretty unproven. And it just makes me worry, not necessarily because I have worries about that rotation I just outlined, winning between 37 and 42 games, whatever it is. You're just one injury away from like, uh-oh, who's playing 25 minutes a game for the Spurs? So as I went through their rotation, I thought, huh, I was big on like,

I think their over-under was 34.5 or 35.5. Maybe even lower than that. Hit the over hard. They're going to push for a play-in spot. Make the play-in, whatever. All still possible because this dude may just be that good right now already. And that's the hardest reason

That's the most difficult obstacle in being slightly pessimistic about them is when Benyama may just be 40 wins by himself in terms of just what he lifts the team to. But I worried for their depth. I mean, Chris Paul's old. He's going to get hurt. Vassell's had injury issues. Harrison Barnes is getting a little old. Then you got rookies and unproven guys. I'm a little I don't know how you felt about this. I can't remember how you felt about the Spurs in the wake of free agency.

It's been pushed all the way up to 36 and a half now. They're lying at ESPN bets. So there's optimism out there about the Spurs. That's optimistic. That's optimistic. Like 90% of it is Wemby. And I think probably 10% of it is, you know, getting some bets in Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes. And, you know, I think one of the things we saw last year with the Rockets was

Like they, they imported quality players and free agency without question in, in Fred Van Vliet and Dylan Brooks. And then, you know, the vets that they sprinkled in the bench, the Jeff greens and jock Landale's. But the biggest thing was kind of, they, they stopped playing their young guys who weren't any good, you know, the Ty Ty Washington juniors. And I, I can't even remember necessarily who was, who was literally in the Houston bench, the previous couple of seasons when they were so, so bad.

San Antonio, I think when healthy has an opportunity to do something similar in terms of just taking Blake Wesley and Malachi Brant out of the rotation is going to make you a better team this year. So I think a lot of it is like, what's the goal? Are we trying to win as many games as possible right now? Are we trying to make the playoffs?

And if so, you're going to see a lot of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes. Or is it still a lot of minutes for Stefan Castle as a rookie for those guys for Sohan, who I think still falls into that category of the more minutes he plays, the better perhaps for your long-term development, but the worst for your chances of winning this season. The one guy, Julian Champagny, Erasure here, he was pretty good for them at the end of the season. He's on my deep bench list. But yeah, he was good for them. He shot it well for them too.

Sort of in that same role that I think Harrison Barnes will more effectively play for them this season. But, you know, I think he'll be plenty involved off the bench as well.

And Kelton Johnson was a consideration for my most interesting players list, because I do think there's an element where, you know, everyone talks about the way that the environment, you know, last year held Wemby back in the first couple of months of the season. They don't talk very much about, well, Kelton Johnson also could use some spore spacey around him. Like he enjoyed early in his career when the Spurs had a number of veterans and

And, you know, he, his season sort of was the inverse of Trey Jones's Trey Jones was coming off the bench when Johnson was starting earlier in the year, Johnson went to the bench, Jones became a starter. So we didn't get a lot of opportunity to play with a competent point guard. So just whether that's Trey Jones or Chris Paul this year, having the two of those guys, I think will help him a lot. Yeah. I mean, as you said, what is the goal? Um,

You know, on the one hand, the Spurs have so many draft assets from so many different places, including the in the more immediate term, the Hawks. But they have all these swaps down the line from it. Don't forget the Bulls and the Bulls to the Bulls, Minnesota and Dallas and and and Boston. I think they have a swap to from Derek White down the line, you know.

That would seem to say, well, you can have your cake and eat it too. You can pursue wins this year because you don't have to worry about tanking or draft equity because you have a bunch of draft equity. On the other hand, this is...

a pretty goddamn loaded draft and your maybe last chance if it's a chance at all of a top eight pick or whatever with victor wimby on the team we've seen with lebron and other sort of generational stars even one level below that your team gets good fast you don't get a lot of bites at the apple in the lottery you got two last year you traded one for a future draft asset from the wolves that became rob dillingham in minnesota which really when you outline the depth

there's a present day cost to that trade that I think is even greater than I understood at the time to their, because they could use another, even though you expect the eighth pick in the draft to be a net negative as a rookie, there's a place for that kind of player in this rotation. That might be better than some of the players who are going to get minutes, particularly if they're an injury. But on the other hand, it's like,

Can they lose enough games to really get in the picture? I mean, with the flattened lottery odds, maybe you just say, Hey, you know, if we, if we have to do what Utah has done the last couple of years, we have a greater chance to move up in the draft than we would have had 10 years ago or eight years ago when the lottery odds were more weighted toward the worst teams. But there's going to be some bad teams chasing ping pong balls all season. And, and,

I frankly think that's one of the reasons why Brandon Ingram has proved harder to trade than maybe the Pelicans thought. Why Julius Randle, if the Knicks ever decide to actually move him and there seems to be some stasis there, these teams do not, there are not as many teams that have an appetite for a floor raiser like that in this particular season among the rebuilding teams or middling teams. That's why it's hard to find a,

hard to find a home for those guys. By the way, just as an aside, we talked about Milwaukee. You know, all of this stuff is just chit-chat until the games start to get played. And then we get 20, 30 games in and teams are either better than we thought or worse than we thought, better than they thought they'd be, worse than they thought they'd be. And we don't mention him anymore as a trade candidate, but if Milwaukee is indeed worse than they expect to be, and I'm not saying I think that, I'm saying a lot of people I talk to think that, we'll see.

you know, Middleton is effectively an expiring contract. Who's getting older. Giannis is Giannis. If things, if things don't go well in Milwaukee, uh,

Why would the Heat not call again about Damian Lillard? Why would other teams that were interested not call again about Damian Lillard? Depending on how he's playing, he's the one that would make the most sense. I'm just putting it out into the world, but I'm done talking about the Spurs. I have nothing more to say other than Wemby is going to get wind of this probably. I love this comment after the Olympics, like the whole world should be worried because that's what it felt like watching the gold medal game. It felt like we got to get in the getaway car and get out of here before this dude –

like figures how to make out, figures out how to make more threes or whatever the next thing is. Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, San Antonio, I don't feel, yeah, I understand what you said. The other thing about the tanking teams is those are so concentrated in the Eastern Conference, whereas in the West teams are generally trying to win. It's only, you know, Portland and Utah that I think we can for sure pencil in behind San Antonio in the pecking order.

What did you think of the marketing extension? And just in terms of Utah's short and medium term planning? I thought I was a little surprised the degree to which people expected him to kind of take more of a haircut on the extension that he then he did, even with the renegotiation aspect up to the max this year. I mean, you know, people ask kind of what's the benefit? The benefit is you

keep Lowry marketing. And, you know, I know by all accounts, he wanted to be in Utah and the fact that he signed this and it became a de facto, no trade clause was a benefit of the deal, but still like, how good are you going to feel about your chances of resigning marketing is an unrestricted free agent next season. If you're coming off of another season that you're probably going to be in lottery. I, you know, I think I was partially wrong in saying that.

the deal that it didn't pass the smell test to me that they would just resign marketing and do little else in the off season because are they really going to put themselves in position again to be picking eighth, ninth, 10th, instead of really chasing a pick in one of these two drafts. And I know Danny Ainge and I remember saying, I know Danny Ainge, I know he's going to want to be at the top of these drafts. And I think what I sort of underestimated is the, the potential of resigning him.

Which they have now done or extending him and then still being pretty bad by playing the young guys and eventually offloading Clarkson Sexton. I mean, this is a plan I was aware of. People told me about it. Not that the not Utah people, just people spitballing.

And I got it cognitively. It just felt I was too impatient, I think. And so I could see that unfolding and I could see the Jazz thinking, yeah, hey, look, we might not be able to out-tank Brooklyn. Certainly not going to out-tank Washington, Portland, whatever. We could be the fifth or sixth worst team and sort of just take our shot at it under this revised lottery odds. And maybe we don't get the first pick. Maybe we get the second, third. Maybe we don't move up at all. But I could see that playing out. The subplot there is,

How long is Markkinen willing to wait in his prime on a team that is sort of perpetually searching for the next set of young guys? And maybe Keonta George makes a big leap. Maybe Cody Williams comes out of the shoot like gangbusters. Maybe Hendricks makes a big leap. Sensabaugh showed some flashes at the end of last year. They've got pieces already. So they are, though, and they obviously are loaded with trade assets.

Yeah, I think they're a team that, as we talk about that San Antonio, which way is the dial going to go? It's pretty clear that even with those veterans on the roster, the dial is going to go to, you know, your point guard duo is going to be Keontae George and Isaiah Collier. That, you know, Taylor Hendricks, who barely played in the first half of last season, is going to play a lot right away from day one. And that will kind of do to your record what it's going to do. And I do think people have been a little slow to internalize the idea

effect of the lottery changes like the discussion about how unlucky detroit is to be picking fifth every year with the worst record it's like well that's actually the most likely outcome like yes you have the best chances of being first but your relative chances your chances of being first relative to the team that enters the lottery or eighth are not that high so like i think it's even in the words we use around the lottery like detroit didn't move down when they went from first to

entering the lottery to fifth. Fifth was the default. If you get a top four pick, even is the team with the best odds of doing it, you're still moving up. I like that. It's true. It's in practice. It's true. Any parting thoughts on teams before we transition to our list of intriguing players?

You know, this is maybe related one team. I'm feeling a little bit. I don't, I guess I'm feeling a little bit better about is a team that doesn't get talked about enough, probably in the West mix. I don't think they came up earlier. The Memphis Grizzlies.

And one of the things that happened non-transactional, yeah, you're frustrated. Scotty Pippen Jr. was awesome in Summer League as part of the Grizzlies run in that. If he's just a really good backup point guard in those minutes that were Derrick Rose at the start of last season, or now John Moran, some combination of Marcus Smart and Scotty Pippen Jr., that's a pretty big upgrade for them. So yeah, I'm feeling a little more bullish on the Grizzlies. I will give you one better. I feel like...

I feel like an insane person talking about the Memphis Grizzlies because I was reading, you know, ESPN, you guys, I guess there was some voting and there was a collective win total for each team. And the Grizzlies came out. He just decided it.

The Grizzlies came out with 44 wins, I think, and in the play-in race. I had a bunch of meetings yesterday in the city. The Grizzlies, there's some skepticism about the Grizzlies. They're not meant to start listing off the contenders in the West and they don't come up. I mean, look, I get it. John Morant has got to prove it.

Uh, he's got to stay on the floor. Marcus smart was injured all of last year. We haven't seen how that all fits together. Gigi Jackson, who loomed as like maybe a bench wild card for them. And certainly a guy who can score and do some things off the bench is going to miss, I think several months with this, uh, broken foot. That's, that is a potential blow.

I they just win games the Grizzlies win lots of basketball games when they have John Moran doesn't ban Jaron Jackson Jr. and a in a viable supporting cast and I think despite the fact that they are going to maybe likely to probably will start a rookie at center this season after drafting Zach Eadie and trying to get Donovan Klingon to at some points I just think they're going to be really good and I see 44 wins and I'm like

Okay. It feels wildly low to me, but everyone I talked to is just kind of soured on the Grizzlies and their infrastructure. And obviously their superstar who's had a couple of lost seasons here. I'm could not be higher on them. That doesn't mean I'm going to pick them to win the West, but I think they're a candidate for shoot a top three, a top seeds two to five. I expect Memphis to be in the race for any of those seats.

Agreed. Yeah, we got some news, by the way, on Gigi Jack's second is we're recording this podcast. The Grizzlies announced he'll be reevaluated in approximately three months. So we'll miss at least the first month and a half of the season with that injury. But, you know, I don't know that you were necessarily penciling him into a huge role anyway. Vince Williams Jr. is another guy who like played a lot as a, you know, when they had that opportunity because of the injuries last year and proved himself to be an NBA rotation.

you know, slots back into a bench role that's more appropriate for him. But I do have another comment on the Grizzlies coming later in this podcast. Oh, okay. Clark's healthy. Aldama's good. Give me the Grizzlies stock. I'll take it. This episode is brought to you by Allstate. Some people just know they could save hundreds on car insurance by checking Allstate first. Like, you know to check you have the tickets in your wallet first before you drive two hours to the big game.

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Every year in the preseason, I write a column, my six most intriguing players or five most intriguing players, depending on how the number, depending on how industrious I'm feeling at the time of the season. And as a rule, I don't pick superstars, although I break that rule every once in a while. I had the mellow ball last year, whether he's a superstar or just a.

star star to young people is something that can be debated. And I don't pick first or second year players because yeah, like we're all intrigued by rookies and we're all, yes, I'm intrigued by Victor Wemby. I would watch every second of Victor Wemby. I'm basically doing anything in life. I'd watch him drive a car. I'd watch him go to the grocery store. I'd watch him pump gas. I'm all in. So I have my, I've, I've picked five so far, but I will give you the floor. Give me, give me one of yours to start with. And we'll just fly through these.

All right. My first, and I was trying to go with players who, you know, I don't think have been discussed a lot necessarily this off season as intriguing players and to stick with the Grizzlies theme, Jaron Jackson, Jr., because he went from an all-star two years ago, defensive player of the year to, you know, his per game averages looked pretty good last season, but from advanced staff perspective, a tremendously disappointing season.

And offensively, I can buy giving him a pass for everything else that was going on. His usage rate ballooned from around 25% to a career-high 30%. His assist rate on twos, like the percentage of those that was assisted, went way down, which is indicative of more self-created shots, more difficult attempts.

I do wonder about the three point shooting. He hit 35.5% in 2022, 23, which is right around league average, starting to feel like the outlier after we thought that this guy was going to be an Al Horford type coming into the league. He shot 32% from three, two of the last three seasons, including last year. And that seems to be closer to his typical mark. But the real thing is

Jaron Jackson Jr. went from the best rim protector in the league. Number one in terms of opponent shooting inside of five feet is the primary defender using the second spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats.

Last year, he was 17th. The 56% that opponent shot on those attempts was the highest of his entire career in a full season. And, you know, is that just the malaise of the Grizzlies being in the lottery? Just the rotating door of players who are alongside him in the front court? Or is it indicative of, I mean, is it actually a concern going into this season? That's what I'm really curious about.

Give me the Jaron Jackson Jr. stock. I'm taking it all. He's bouncing back. And bizarrely, the decline in shooting percentages that you cite, coupled with the increase in usage rate, has me optimistic for his offensive play this year. I think both him and Desmond Bain were forced to stretch their offensive games pretty much beyond the breaking point without John Morant and managed offensively.

okay, all things considered. And now they have the number one creator on the team back. And I think we'll get a more comfortable shot diet for themselves. Jaron Jackson Jr. Like not only did people think he was going to be Al Horford,

They thought he was going to be able to shoot off the dribble threes, coming off pin-down threes, be like one of the most, almost like Towns-ish in his three-point shooting, which hasn't panned out. I'm betting on a big season for him. I'm betting on malaise and horrible Team USA hangover as part of the reason for his decline in defense last year. I'm optimistic about Jaron Jackson Jr.,

I picked both. I guess we can make this the transition. I picked both USA basketball centers from the World Cup roster because Walker Kessler also had a bit of a malaise in year two and some commonalities in that, I think, in terms of he went from playing with Mike Conley Jr. as his starting point guard most of his rookie season to

you know, all of a sudden it's Keontae George is a rookie, is the primary playmaker. His assisted rate on twos intriguingly actually went up rather than down. But, you know, his shooting percentage, John Collins comes in as a starter alongside him at the start of the season. Another guy who

you know, is a role man above the rim finisher playing in kind of the same space that Walker Kessler likes to operate. So Kessler shot 61% as a starter. He shot 68% as a reserve playing less frequently with Collins is they kind of staggered those two guys. And so,

The difference here is I mentioned the drop-off in Jaron Jackson as a rim protector. I think people perceived that happening with Kessler, and it didn't. Was he number one in field goal percentage against it? If he wasn't number one, he was top three. He was not. He was, in fact, number three. Evita Zubats, recently extended by the Clippers, was number one in this category. By the way, you brought up Zoo. That's a great deal for the Clippers, and I'm happy for Zoo. I mean, that guy, again, we don't have to...

We should repeat it every time that the Lakers traded him for Mike Muscala. I mean, that's how marginal he was and how much time he spent in the G League. He has made himself one hell of a reliable starting center on both ends of the floor.

Farewell to Mike Muscala also while we're on this note. But yeah, he was just ahead of Rudy Gobert in terms of opponent shooting at the rim. He was just as dominant in that regard. His rebounding wasn't maybe quite as strong and I get why that's a concern for the Jads, but it feels like this guy is still too good to be stuck in like a 20 minute a night off the bench role and whether it

You know, him just becoming the starter in Utah, they trade Collins or if it's Utah potentially looking to trade Kessler. I expect him to bounce back and at least in terms of perception this season. Yeah, he was a popular by low candidate for teams that need a center. I think our former colleague Ian Begley reported that the Knicks kind of kicked the tires on him. That makes a lot of sense.

He is on my long list, but will not end up making my column only because I'm very confident he is going to bounce back. He couldn't bounce lower than he did last year and then playing summer league. I think the question for him is,

What is his feel level on offense? How much can he sort of he's pretty good in the short role and all that. But can you have a little bit more development in terms of his feel and his moving, moving on the ball, moving the ball on offense? But he's on my list. OK, I'm going to let you pick one more before I pick more exciting players. My players are more exciting than yours. All right. Well, you know, Jaron Jackson Jr. is an all star. I guess he's not. And also he in the year he won defense player of the year.

He would block shots like just a phantom coming out of nowhere, like a horror movie villain. He was like, wait, when Jaron Jackson Jr. was over there and then he came and blocked this poor guy's shot at the rim and damn near blocked it through the backboard. He was very terrifying to watch. Pick somebody else. He blocked so many shots at home that we had a whole Reddit thread about whether they were padding his stats. Oh my God, I forgot about that. My last two are actually more obscure. So I'll give you my last remaining big name, which is Tyler Hero.

Interesting. I'm glad you're bringing – I don't have any heatles on my list, but I'm glad you're bringing up the Heat because they are facing a potentially fraught season on a lot of different levels. Yeah, I mean, they're a team that, you know, I think –

People kind of didn't talk about them a lot in free agency because they weren't doing stuff. And other than Caleb Martin, their players weren't leaving. It was mostly status quo, but status quo has not been very good in the regular season the last couple of years. And there wasn't the playoff run along with it last year. And obviously that playoff run in 2023 came with Tyler Hero not playing.

Last year's playoff run was interesting. He did have 24 points and 14 assists as they beat the Celtics in Boston in game two. If you look at the other four games combined. After which, by the way, Jimmy Butler, Garrett basically said like, we're about to go up to, Oh, and then they were essentially never heard from again.

He had 13 total assists in the other four games of the series and averaged 15 points per game in them. So not, not a strong playoffs. I think one of the questions you've asked, I believe on the podcast is like, why is Terry Rozier here? And I think the reason is because Tyler hero hasn't necessarily developed as a score the way that he were expecting his

His usage rate has gone down since he's been starting after winning the six-man award two years ago, but his efficiency hasn't improved like you'd hope in that role. It's actually gone backwards relative to league average because it's just basically stayed the same.

did average a career high 4.8 assists per 36 minutes last season. So some playmaking improvement and also just, he's never played more than 67 games in a season. Like some of that on the front end was shortened seasons due to COVID, but the last few years has not been able to stay healthy on a consistent basis. And this is someone who's gone from, you know, you look at after that bubble run to the finals, people are thinking of him as a future all-star, maybe the next guy in the sort of this heat run of, you know,

alongside bam out of bio is another guy who's drafted in the late lottery who's going to carry them forward in the next year part of the reason the jimmy butler situation is so fraught is if it's not jimmy butler's the heat's best player then who is it doesn't look like hero is going to get to that point in his career well the answer of course is bam who's just a winner just a winner and they signed him to an extension that he richly deserves um i'm glad you brought up tyler hero

I think it was two summers ago I wrote just a deep dive on Tyler Hero when it was very clear he was going to have to be the centerpiece player in any Miami trade for whether it was Donovan Mitchell or ultimately Damian Lillard. And they didn't end up getting any of these guys. And by the way, I liked the Rozier trade for them. I don't think it was me that said, why is Tara Rozier here? Maybe at some point I said that, but I liked that trade for them.

And I comped hero in that column to CJ McCollum as sort of a scoring combo guard who was always going to be a little bit of a liability on defense and

Was never going to get you as many rim shots and free throws as you would hope, but was a damn, and maybe never would make an all-star team, but would be a damn good player for a long time in the NBA. And I think he can still get to that, to that point, but something in this brew has just not worked yet. And I don't know that that has much to do with Tyler hero other than his health. But like, I was talking to someone about the heat yesterday and,

I think they're like, if you ask me how many guys are just guaranteed starting spots right now, it might just be two. It might just be Jimmy and Bam, because I don't know what combination of Rozier, Hero, Jovic was a starter last year, and I think he's going to be a nice player for them. Jaquez might be ready to start. You might start Haywood Highsmith just to put like a low usage defense first player in there somewhere. I don't know who is going to end up in that starting five. The bench, like...

Again, you're one injury away from it being rickety. I mean, a couple of those guys we mentioned just now will be in the bench rotation. Is Josh Richardson going to be healthy? If so, when Duncan Robinson still around high Smith, they need a lot out of now. He's, he kind of seemed like a sometimes break in case of emergency guys. Sometimes, sometimes more than that. Kevin love backup center again. Like it's, they have like the names are all good and the parts mesh in some ways, but

And we all know Jimmy did not get an extension. And that could be, I still expect some resolution there, if not in the form of an extension, then maybe in a reasonable contract after the season. But you just don't know.

I mean, I think the other interesting thing with Hero is just kind of this concept of how contracts change the way that we view players. And it's so easy when a guy's on a rookie deal, particularly if they're mid first round pick like Hero was, to get very excited about their potential. And then when sort of the reality comes of paying them market value, suddenly it changes how we start to think about them. I think it's been fascinating to see that shift with Jonathan Kaminga this summer before he even signs an extension where in fact,

look, this guy is so young. Look what he's produced when he's given an opportunity. And now that this extension is looming for the Warriors, all of a sudden people are treating him as if he's got no value to the jazz in the Lowry-Markin discussions. Well, you know I'm a Kaminga fan. And yeah, on the flip side, like Pajemski is the most valuable trade ship the Warriors have. And people talk about him in Golden State like he may be an all-star someday. Maybe he will be. But part of the reason he has so much value is he has three years left

On his rookie deal. And Brandon Ingram is like a five years down the line version of what Kaminga's trade value is going through now in terms of just, yeah, good player, 25, five and five. I got to pay him how much for how many years is, you know, is he the, is Brandon Ingram the.

second best player on a great team if the answer is maybe closer to the third best player on a great team then you can't pay that guy 50 million dollars a year it just doesn't the the house of cards collapses speaking of brandon igram uh i'll give you one of mine trey murphy the third

In New Orleans, 15 points a game last year, 38% shooting, 72% of his shots were threes. And the reason I have him as interesting, intriguing is, you know, look, he's awesome to watch as a basketball player.

I'm interested. And, and I think he's going to, I said all last year, Trey Murphy, the third has to start for the Pelicans in 2024, 25. It has to, has to, has to, that's, that's going to be over. I would suspect short of a trade, which still has not happened. Um,

They're starting five. Just like if he's got to start and Herb's got to start and Ingram and Zion have to start because they're Ingram and Zion and DeJounte Murray has to start because DeJounte Murray. Well, there's your five guys right there. You're starting with Zion at center and you're going to figure it out. And that's kind of a switchy, funky lineup defensively that could be interesting. But why Trey Murphy is really interesting to me is if Brandon Ingram is traded, he's

What does it, what does Trey Murphy, the third scaling up on offense look like? Because those 15 points right now are coming on threes on a closeouts, like driving against closeouts, pump and go. He's got an incredible pump. People treat him. And I think he's earned it.

Almost like a Klay Thompson level shooter and how close people play him. And he's very smart at leveraging that sort of pressurized defense for driving opportunities. And then in transition, if you actually look up Kevin Pelton, who the most efficient pick and roll ball handler in the league was last year in terms of points produced out of their pick and rolls, minimum 100 picks, it's Trey Murphy III. Almost 1.4 points higher.

directly out of each pick and roll, but only four pick and rolls per 100 possessions. So I'm, I don't know what him scaling up is. Maybe it's using him as a screener more, and he's a great movement shooter. He can set ball screens. You hide a small guy on him. He screens for Zion. He screams for Ingram, whatever it is, but yeah,

And defensively, he's got to reach another level too. He's got to get a little more stable on defense. But it's more the how far can this scale up? Because this guy's already a really, really good role player, a really high-level role player. He's extension eligible. If he gets extended, it's going to be for a lot and deservedly so. I just am curious to see what's next in the offensive development.

Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, there's a couple of forwards who got traded together from Phoenix to Brooklyn who are kind of interesting comparisons for him because Mikhail Bridges is someone who, you know, he leaned more heavily on the D side of the three and D equation than Trey Murphy, but was able to grow past that role into someone who, you know, to some degree or another was able to be a go-to score for the Nets the last couple of seasons. And then, you know, now has all the more value when you put him back in a secondary role or tertiary role in New York.

Or is it more like Cam Johnson, who like very great role filler, you know, great, great shooter, capable defender across multiple positions, but didn't prove to have a lot more juice even when put in a situation where he, you know, more offense was potentially needed for it from him in Brooklyn.

Yeah. And Trey Murphy, I think is a little bit more explosive of an athlete than Cam Johnson. He's got it. He's got a good first step and a better second step when he gets, when he gets some momentum, he doesn't like one-on-one.

He is not someone who's going to roast bigger guys on switches. He will shoot over point guards on switches off the dribble, which is very encouraging. But if you get him, if you get him, if one person runs a pick and roll and gets him the ball and his defender even has to take a half step to close out on him, he's really good at like a little pump fake, get you up in the air and go. And once he gets a runway, he's really explosive and really good at getting to the rim and

His passing in that exact situation with sort of the floor in motion, the defense rotating has to reach another level. And that's, that's comes with experience and time. I'm really optimistic about him. I'm just curious to see what it looks like. Maybe it's just more of everything, more shooting, more roving around more. He's a very smart mover off the ball. I love treatment for the third. I'm intrigued by him. I'm going to give you another one. That's going to be near and dear to your Pacific Northwest heart. Okay. And sharp. Hmm.

Missed most of last season due to injury. Was handed a much larger role last season when he did play for a tanktastic Blazers team. He ran eight picks per 100 possessions, eight pick and rolls per 100 possessions as a rookie that shot up to almost 22 last year. His efficiency on those was awful, largely due to turnovers and missed jump shots, both missed twos and missed threes.

I was watching a lot of film on him today and I came away from it even more optimistic about his development as some kind of elite offensive weapon down the line. One of the reasons is he shot 25% on pull-up threes as a rookie, 29% last year. Catch and shoot threes, 39% last year, 46% as a rookie. I think the jump shot is going to be there soon.

starting with the catch and shoot numbers and trickling down. The second thing is like, he's not an unwilling passer and he's got some, some craft and feel to his game. When he gets the ball, catches the ball, goes around the screen and has, and has sort of his defender on his hip. He he's, he, he will hold the ball a little too long sometimes and miss passes, but that's, I think more of a, um, experiencing and less of a, I'm hunting my own points all the time thing. Like he's willing to get off the ball and,

And I think there are some interesting next steps for him. But of all the young guys on the Blazers, Scoot's going to get a ton of attention because he was number two pick in the draft. I'm not sure if you had asked me to predict the Blazers starting five right now, I don't think Scoot is in it this year. And I think that's totally fine. I would go Simons, Sharp, Denny Avdia, who they traded a lot for, including Bob Carrington, Jeremy Grant until he's traded at some point, and DeAndre Ayton. And that's fine.

I think Sharp is going to be a really good complimentary offensive player. And again, I'm interested in what the scaling up of his responsibilities looks like.

Yeah, I mean, to some degree, I'm interested in what the scaling down looks like, because so much of his season last year was, you know, Scoot was hurt for a period at the start of the season. Anthony Simons was out for a longer period. And that's when they started putting the ball in his hands a lot sort of out of necessity, as they had done in the final month of his rookie season. And we saw, you know, him really start to pop off.

And, you know, through nine games or so, that was going really well. We're shooting 38% from three, 44 from the field. Scoring was like 18 a game. And then the question that I'm curious about is like how much of the drop off and efficiency that we saw after that was about he was playing through this core muscle injury before he had the surgery that ended his season. And, you know, that was really impacting him as opposed to just kind of this being his natural level. The fascinating thing about

Shaden is a rookie when I saw him a lot more, you know, both because he played a full season and because I was in Portland more often is he's such an incredible athlete. And yet he doesn't do the things that we associate with athleticism in terms of accumulating rebounds, steals and blocks.

And that started to get a little better in the second half of his rookie season. They ticked up again, you know, overall in year two. I do want to see him continue translating that athleticism into defensive playmaking in a way that, you know, you still haven't quite gotten to. Well, that's a long project. Shaden Sharp becoming an average or better wing defender is going to take a long time, particularly off the ball. He's really struggled defensively.

And the sort of question built in to the Blazers is, is there any universe where Henderson, Simons and sharp all play together for extended minutes and the team doesn't just hemorrhage points defensively. And I I'm not optimistic about that. In fact, I think Simons is one of the more intriguing trade candidates right now in the league. And if I'm the Blazers, I'm just kind of sitting there. Like I like Anthony Simons, good contract. I think he's extension eligible again, pretty soon. Good player can really shoot it. Um,

I'm waiting for someone to bowl me over with a trade, with a trade offer that makes me say go. But on sharp,

that the defense is going to take a long time the one thing he's already really good at is anything that involves him coming off the screen on offense he's very good at that catch shoot catch drive back cut along the baseline like fake going around the screen and then come on the baseline back cut he's already he's already pretty good at that he needs to get better at passing out of those situations that's experience and you're right maybe maybe he'll never be a heavy on ball option but you can find clips of like i think he's six seven shade and sharp he's pretty big and

And there were a couple of clips I was watching where he like runs a pick and roll with Scoot Henderson and Tim Hardaway Jr. switches onto him. And without stopping, without hesitating, he just dribbles into Tim Hardaway Jr., spins off of him and lays the ball in. And this sort of like,

bully ball driving mode just using his size against smaller players that is really intriguing and I just think the shooting numbers are encouraging the athleticism like once he gets going to the rim he's got nice touch left-handed he's got good in and out dribble with both hands I just I feel very confident that Shaden Sharp is going to be a very good player at least on offense for the Blazers you know I think it's interesting you connect those two things you mentioned him being so good at coming off of screens like

That's the sort of thing that you drill a lot in practice. And Shane Sharp just hasn't played that much five-on-five basketball at a high level because he didn't play that season at Kentucky. Now he's had this largely lost second season. So I think you can sort of categorize things into like, what can you simulate in practice? And what do you have to have the five-on-five experience for? And sometimes I think in terms of the...

role of minutes in player development like we can undersell what you can drill part of it like if it was so important Joel Embiid wouldn't be as amazing as he is after you know not playing the first two seasons of his career like 30 games the first three seasons combined he was able to develop a lot of what he does in practice but it took a while for some of those field things to come for him and those are still developing you know he's still making process as a passer last season I think that's that's the development curve for Shaden as well

All right. Just, just rapid fire. Give me the rest of your names. I told you to pick five. We've gotten to two or three at this point. Just hit me with a couple more. All right. So the other two, Kiana Ellis, I think is one of the most interesting. He's on my long list. He might make my column.

uh they they just need him like without harrison barnes because of he's in san antonio as we talked about earlier they are in desperate need of guys who can both space the floor and defend alongside demar de rosa and deer and fox in the backcourt and kian ellis was that guy for them last season he's bigger than you think he's also six six like like sharp is listed at shot 42 on threes last year and well i wanted to be skeptical of that even though he was someone i was he

I was pretty high on coming out of Alabama, shot 41% the season before in the G League. Like everything indicates to me, like this guy's a really good role player. And I, the name that I would like very optimistically use for Keon Ellis is can he become Contavious Caldwell Pope? So he's on my list for all the reasons you just said.

The Kings coaches love Keon Ellis and are very optimistic about him. I think he might be the favorite to be a starter this year to kind of win that fifth starting spot and deservedly so. I mentioned Trey Murphy's pick and roll numbers. Keon Ellis's pick and roll numbers on higher volume, still not high for a guy his size, but in terms of something distinct from KCP, who's not really a pick and roll guy.

um were outstanding last season and that may not be a skill you lean into too much on a team with fox and sabonis running the offense but it's a and derosen and malik and and damar derosen but there there are a lot of indications that this is a more skilled offensive player than people think keegan murray is another name in sacramento that's an obvious fit um for for this kind of combo all right give me your give me your last one my last one is dyson daniels because i i

I think the idealized version of Dyson Daniels is a really good fit in Atlanta next to Trey Young. Give them size in the backcourt. He's terrific defending on the ball if he can shoot. And that's the big question mark. Didn't really make any progress. Was still at 31% last season. He's been working with maybe the best at this point shot doctor in the league and Fred Vinson with the Pelicans coaching staff. The fact that they weren't convinced he could go shooter is maybe a little bit of a concern for me. And I think it's interesting because...

guys who get traded on their rookie contracts is valued, like not, you know, by low trade, but he was hypothetically along with the pick. They got part of the value in return for Dejounte Murray. I don't feel like the track record of those guys is that good.

Aaron Neesmith is someone you could say succeeded in this in Indiana. Nikhil Alexander Walker, like eventually it took a while, but like the last guy who got traded before the last year of his rookie contract who really hit big on his next team, I think is Shea Gildress Alexander, who, you know, obviously that's

that's pie in the sky. We're not talking about that with Dyson Daniels. Whereas like, you can look at like RJ Hampton when he was in the Aaron Gordon trade, Romeo Langford, part of the Derek white trade, Cam Reddish, you know, going for a first round pick Dennis Smith, Jr. Landry Shamit. Like they don't usually turn out that well. Like when the other team is trading you early in your career, it's probably because they know something that the rest of the league doesn't. So I'm curious to see how that's going to play out with Dyson Daniels. Well,

It's only one thing and it's the shooting. Everything else is going to be there. I mentioned the Pelicans playing smaller and all that. They lost a ton of rebounding in the offseason between Valanciunas. Their only veteran center on the team right now is Daniel Tice, who's undersized as a five as is.

And Dyson Daniels is a really good rebounding guard too. So that'll be interesting for the, I like Dyson Daniels. Atlanta. I wrote a little bit about them a couple months ago and, and to have some veterans, they have some young guys that feels like, and they clearly made a decision in trading to John DeMurray and not trading Trey young. I'm not convinced that that's the final decision that they're going to make with that backcourt.

And how they play could be a huge factor in, in, in where they go with Trey young going forward. Okay. I'll just read you the list, my list of other guys, other candidates. Um, I think Emmanuel quickly will probably make my column just because the Raptors bet really big on him being, if not a franchise level point guard, then something close to whatever that player looks like. Nice to Scotty Barnes. Um,

Kaminga is obvious. Tari Eason I have. Jada McDaniels I feel like is an interesting one. And then I'm going to pair these guys as one player for purposes of the column. Two super athletic, lob-catching young centers on moribund Eastern Conference franchises. Jalen Duren,

uh, who I've been mostly quite high on and Mark Williams who missed, who's played 62 games in two years for Charlotte, only 19 last year with back issues. They're optimistic. He's going to be healthy. Uh, if not that he's going to be healthy period. Um, I think he's shown flashes of being a really interesting player. Um,

for a team that needs somebody with that skillset and just is completely under the radar. Cause he's barely played. And he's, when he's played, he's played for a bad team. And like I had, I was almost tempted to put LaMelo ball in again this year because he barely played last year. But I think that's an interesting team in Charlotte that could punch a little bit above its weight. Um, maybe,

and if things go really right for them, like win more games than they really would like to. And then they can take steps to ensure that they don't win so many games, but they've got some interesting pieces there, but yeah,

I think everyone's excited about Duren. Just the level of athleticism is crazy. The intel on him as a guy is through the roof good. He's still only 20 years old, so he's very young, still learning the nuances of defense, kind of probably behind for given his minutes, but he's played for this just crazy franchise that has to decide –

Kind of which young players it really values as part of its core in which it doesn't, but they don't have anyone like him. And Mark Williams just hasn't played, but I'm super intrigued by what he can bring to Charlotte.

Yeah, Mark Williams sort of gets overlooked because all the attention is on LaMelo Ball. The time that he's missed the last two seasons, you don't think about the fact that Mark Williams didn't play after mid-December, was it even, that he made it to last year? And I think about him in the context of the guy who followed him a couple years later at Duke, Derek Lively II. And he got thrust into this just picture-perfect role in Dallas as a lob finisher from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

but also the defensive versatility we saw from Lively to be able to switch out and make plays on guards. I think Williams has some of that same ability to do that. During, to me, what's interesting is there is this archetype of the rim-running, rim-protecting center. Can he grow beyond that with his skill as a playmaker or the skill to create his own offense? And then just will his rim protection match kind of the potential he has at that end?

The bigger question to me is his defense. That's the pivot point for him as a player, because if he doesn't become a good defensive player, I don't think he's ever going to be good enough offensively to really play a role on a great team, even though we all know he can just jump out of the building and catch lobs. And to your point, I've highlighted this in 10 things before. He has more feel on offense than people I think who don't watch the Pistons might expect given his archetype as a player. He can face up. He can work off the bounce. He's a pretty good passer.

for a 20 year old center. But as always, the question is going to be like, how much of that is he engaged to do on a team that has Kate, Kate Cunningham, who I remain pretty high on, you know, we'll see how long Ivy is there, but other guys who are going to kind of control the ball, how much of that are you going to really lean into? So I think defense is the make or break for him. And you mentioned Dallas, you might as well talk about the Mavs. You know, I'm not going to, when you, I didn't hear the hoop, where did the hoop collective guys have them in terms of like contender tiers? Yeah.

I did. They just do the East. Oh, they just did the East. Okay. I think they just did the East. You know, you talk to people and yeah, they're in that sort of penciled in top four in the West. I don't hear an enormous amount of faith around the league that they could make a repeat run like they did last season.

Some of that is digesting the changes that they made, you know, out went Josh Green and Derek Jones Jr. And in came Quentin Grimes and Najee Marshall and Klay Thompson. And well, does Klay Thompson have to start because he's Klay Thompson? If so, what does that mean for your defense? Or do we have to do this thing where we play this way for 40 games? And it's like, all right, maybe now Najee Marshall has to start. Um,

I'm pretty optimistic about the Mavs. First and foremost, Luca is Luca. And still there's lingering like, is Kyrie going to be on the floor for an entire season again with no dust-ups or anything like that? I'm going to assume yes. Why not? He seems happy in Dallas. He was awesome last year. They made the finals. Another year of P.J. Washington makes me optimistic.

And just lively with a year under his belt makes me very optimistic. I think that dude's going to be really good. In fact, I, I think he's going to supply. If I had to bet, I think he supplants Gafford is the starting center. And I, you know, their depth is just okay. That's the case for most teams is if I, I like their mix of players and I don't think what happened in the playoffs was like fool's gold. I think that's a real now making the finals is a different story because

But I think that's a real legit good team. I considered Najee Marshall for my list. I just think Dallas ultimately has enough other options as wing defenders that he's not like as make or break as Keon Ellis is to Sacramento, but he's a bigger, better option than, you know, the Quinton Grimes and Dante Exums of the world. So I think it is important for them, you know, that he becomes that type of player. You could also say it's PJ Washington Jr., like he's...

his playoff run was so, you know, terrific offensively compared to even what we saw in the couple of months in Dallas after the trade that I think he's, you know, if they're going to sustain what they did in the playoffs, I think PJ Washington jr. Might be the biggest key to that. It's going to be a fun season. We got, we got what? Six more weeks before the game start. We got a lot of talk about a lot of preview content coming, a lot of intriguing players, a lot of intriguing teams, Kevin Pelton, anything we need to be on the lookout for.

for you uh not the rest of this week but uh next week scheduled to ride on the houston rockets and my intrigue around them and kind of the way they're building their team oh can you can you spoil any just i mean we all know they have a whole bunch of interesting young players and fred van vliet in the last year of his contract and two guys who are up for extensions and i was doing their rotation yesterday i was like can cam whitmore even get minutes on this team how much are they going to force feed reed shepherd right off the bat can you spoil any of it

Yeah. I mean, I haven't, I haven't written it, so I guess, because it's all spoiled at this point, but yeah, you mentioned Tari Eason potentially on your most intriguing list. Like I think he's someone who's been a little bit forgotten about because he missed so much time at the end of last season, but you know, has really popped statistically when he's been on the court. And one of the things I mentioned the last time I was on was, you know, they seem now to a degree like the model, like, Hey, we're going to get this young talent. Then we're going to import some free agents and,

and, you know, allow them to develop. And that's what, you know, Detroit would do with, you know, the, the addition of Tobias Harris and then the guys that they got via trade, Tim Hardaway, Jr., et cetera, Malik Beasley. You know, I think there's other teams that are kind of thinking this way, or I mean, even Orlando, you could say, although they were farther ahead in the process, adding KCP, like, but they also, they have some interesting decisions coming up because now Jalen Green and Elperon Shangoon are headed into rookie extension talks. And, and,

As compared to the teams that have just gone ahead and extended their players who are kind of in that range, whether it's Evan Mobley or Franz Wagner or even Cade Cunningham to a degree, the Rockets thus far seem to be playing a higher degree of hardball with Jalen Green and Alperon Shen Goon. And it's going to be interesting to see, does that result in them hitting restricted free agency next summer or do they consider trading them before that? So I think a lot of interesting decisions ahead for Houston.

Yeah, I mean, there's been this sort of counter, this not backlash, but whatever to, you know, Franz Wagner and Scotty Barnes and Kate Cunningham and Evan Mobley all just getting here's the max, take the max. Here it is. And you hear a lot of front office people being like, dude, have we forgotten what the point of restricted free agency is? The point is it's a hammer and we have the leverage. And.

On top of that, there's not going to be much cap space in free agency as things stand now, at least maybe two teams. Bobby Marks did the whole projections. It's not going to be very much that have like real legit, we can go big game hunting cap space. Houston, by the way, could be one depending on any number of things. I would find it unlikely given Jalen Green and Shen Goon. And that could also impact, like you mentioned, Denver with Jamal Murray or New Orleans with Brandon Ingram. Maybe you feel a little more emboldened

letting those guys into unrestricted free agency because you know, what, where is the giant offer coming from? But the giant offer always seems to come. Uh, DeMar DeRozan keeps getting giant amounts of money, even without cap space teams that appear interested in him. Anyway, look out for Kevin's piece on the rockets next week. They are indeed a very interesting, very interesting franchise to watch. Uh, KP, as always much appreciated. Uh, we'll talk soon. Thanks for having me.

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