First Round Deep Dive with Coach David Thorpe
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And now, The Low Post. Welcome to The Low Post podcast. It's late Thursday night. We're about to bring on David Thorpe for our annual rapid-fire preview of the first round. We have to start with the Warriors. The Warriors. Steph, Klay, Draymond.

There's no story of a beginning this season for the Warriors. They got walloped the other night in the play-in tournament by the Kings. A lot of trash talk in that rivalry, a lot of big talk. The Kings stomped it all into smithereens, blew the Warriors out, ended the Warriors season. They're done. And...

Everyone is asking now is that is it over and if the if by that question you mean is it over for this particular core Steph clay Draymond maybe Andrew Wiggins if you count him and this particular cast of young guys like winning at a really high level together contending for a title winning winning a title storybook ending all that yeah that's over like it was probably already over.

These guys aren't going to win a title. This it's incredibly unlikely that this group of veteran players, plus this group of young players, whatever tweaks you want to make in the middle is ever going to lead to conference finals title ever again. And that's not to say they, this is like a bad year for the Warriors. They were good. It was like they won 46 games. They finished 27 and 12 over the last 39 games.

They found some stuff that worked. Trace Jackson, Davis and Draymond together, Kaminga and Draymond together. They found some real stuff. It was just never consistent enough. Like even when they were winning, it just never felt consistent enough. One week, this lineup would work. Then it wouldn't work. One week, they'd solve this weak spot in their team. Then it would break again. They were like, you could feel it watching them. They were constantly like on the verge of finding the right balance.

the right identity to their team, the right combinations. You literally felt it watching them. Like, oh, they were, that one pass was like right there, but they didn't make it. That one cut was like right there, but they didn't make it. They were so close. It was the, like the basketball equivalent of when you have a name on the tip of your tongue and you just can't, it's like right there, but you can't get it out and you just move on, you give up. And honestly, for this team to be pretty good,

It's honestly kind of a triumph. This is a dozen years of Steph, Klay, and Draymond together. This should be over by now. And it's not. It's just not good enough to contend in the West, which is loaded now, is going to be even more loaded next year when Memphis is back and the Spurs try to get better around Wemba Nyama. There's no easy outs in the West. The Warriors, just to say they keep this team together. We'll get there later.

They're good enough to make the playoffs, like the real playoffs, not just the play-in playoffs. If things break right, like this could have been a 50-win team this year if Draymond doesn't get suspended, which you can't really just if that away. Like if that thing, that was a huge thing. That was like the defining thing of their season. But to win like multiple playoff series, three playoff series in the West, that's daunting. So is it over? It depends. It depends what question you're asking. That thing, that core winning titles...

Without something massive shaking it up. And we'll get there. That's over. And this is kind of how it's supposed to be. This is what happens to aging champions who stay together. They get old. They get old together. They get old and expensive. They draft at the bottom of the league. They exhaust all their first round picks to get stopgap veterans. Which the Warriors actually didn't quite do that. But they get old. Teams pass you by. It's happened to every great team that stayed together before them. And the league just moves on.

When you get to a point when your core guys, and there is no storybook ending. Sometimes. We'll get there. But when your core is not good enough to win at the highest, highest level anymore, you have really three choices. Number one is just accept that and ride off into the sunset. And there's honor in that. Like, it would be honorable and cool to watch Steph, Klay, and Draymond win.

rage against the dying of the light together, winning 45 games. It just every week or two having a game where you're like, Oh my God, that looked like the warriors for a second. And then losing in the first round or not making out of the play and whatever that Derby cool path number path. Number two is you trade all of them. Some of them, most of them, all of them for picks and future assets before it's too late to do it. And you bought them out.

That's what the Celtics did. Other teams have done it, but most recently the Celtics did it with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Like Paul Pierce ain't Steph Curry. He's not a top 10 to 15, top eight to 15, whatever player of all time, but he's pretty damn good. He's a franchise icon. There was emotion in that trade. Like they had had deep playoff runs even after winning the title, almost playoff runs. They shoved that emotion over here.

They said, we don't, it's not best for our franchise. We're going to trade you. Got this offer from the Nets. You're gone. And it got them Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum. Warriors haven't done that. They can't do it now. That path, well, they could. I mean, they could trade Steph Curry. They're not going to, and they shouldn't. And nobody should want that. Steph Curry should remain a warrior forever and ever and ever. And that's where it should be. The other path, the third path is try and prolong your clinging to the top of the league.

With some borderline miraculous transaction that injects talent into your team without taking the key talent out of your team. To some degree, they did that with Andrew Wiggins, turning D'Angelo Russell into Andrew Wiggins in a roundabout way. Really, Kevin Durant and D'Angelo Russell and Andrew Wiggins. And for one glorious year, they got exactly what they would possibly have hoped to get. It just hasn't lasted. Like, think about this. D'Angelo Russell was better than Andrew Wiggins this year, straight up. How unthinkable would that have been?

Six months ago, a year ago. The Warriors also in that Wiggins deal, obviously, they also got the pick for Minnesota that became Jonathan Kaminga in 2021. Kaminga was and now is the most successful draft pick of the vaunted, the heralded, light years ahead, two timelines plan. You know, the plan where we're going to be awesome now. And while we're awesome now, we're going to get

These young guys who are going to help us be awesome later. And so we never stopped being awesome. There's no dip in the awesomeness between the new year, the current era and the next era. It wasn't really people like it wasn't a plan.

There was no plan to do that. There was no plan. What happened was Kevin Durant left in free agency. Klay Thompson tore his ACL. Steph Curry broke his hand and other stuff, having to play five games in one year. So that's not a plan. That's just like, oh, we suck all of a sudden. We have a high draft pick. It became James Wiseman. Now we're going to call this the two timelines plan because we have this Minnesota pick coming. Next year, we're pretty mediocre. We get another lottery pick. It's Moses Moody. Oh, yeah, two timelines. Let's call it that. It's a two timelines plan.

Well, they picked James Wiseman and they got those other guys. And now they have Brandon Pajemski and Trace Jackson Davis. That's Moses, Moody, Kaminga, Pods, Jackson Davis, Wiseman. That's five bites at the apple. Four guys are still on the team. Those four guys are doing pretty well. And it ain't good enough. And even if you are nice enough to call two timelines a plan, this was always the most likely outcome of the two timelines, plan, scenario, accident, whatever you want to call it.

The young guys aren't good enough in time to help the old guys to the storybook ending. Then the old guys leave, which is coming, whether it's this summer, two summers from now, whatever, they're going to leave soon. And then the young guys, when they get really good, they're not good enough to be the foundation of a contending team. There's good enough to be the foundation of an okay team. And you haven't been awesome now and you haven't been awesome later. That was the most likely outcome that you were going to have in this scenario because

Like everyone wants to make the Kawhi Leonard comparison. Like the Spurs had this masterstroke of a deal to get Tim Duncan, one last great team, Tim Duncan and Manu and Tony Parker, one last great team, one last title team. That was like a black Swan event. That kind of trade is it's even, it's even better in retrospect than it was at the time. It never, ever happens. And it happened. And by the way, the Spurs targeted Kawhi Leonard. It wasn't like a two timelines accident. They,

made an aggressive trade and got Kawhi Leonard. The biggest Mr. Warriors had obviously was Wiseman at number two. And if there's a what if moment, it's

not necessarily who could they have picked instead of Weisman. We all know those names. We could go through them. Yeah, like Halliburton's on the team, Alper and Shengun's on the team, whatever. This is a totally different conversation we're having, but it's more like what could they have gotten for trading that pick? And I went back and I looked at my reporting from the time, my notes from the time. Minnesota had the number one pick in that draft. The hot names in the rumor mill were Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Ben Simmons, and Drew Holiday.

And at least the Wizards and the Suns, like they put out the alert. We're not trading our guys. Number one pick, number two pick. As far as I can remember anyways, these guys were not ready to have this conversation yet. Not that the number one pick was ever in play. I didn't mean just, we're like for whatever pick, those guys aren't on the table.

All the Warriors, they sniffed around. Like, what could we get for number two? All they really ended up with was like, hey, you could trade back in the lottery and get this good veteran who's just like good. He's a placeholder. He could help our team now. We'll get like number two for number eight and a good veteran, number nine and a good veteran, whatever stuff I'm making up. Stuff that doesn't really change your life. They decided those deals weren't worth it. Not when the number two pick could get you.

massive, massive future star. Then they just picked the wrong guy. Missed opportunity. Maybe it wasn't a great opportunity, but it was a missed opportunity. So no storybook ending. Or was there one? I think we saw the storybook ending and we didn't really maybe realize at the time that it was the storybook ending. And the storybook ending was the 2022 title. That was magical, magical stuff. I mean, I was there. You felt it in real time. It was like, man, after all that

After all that, the injuries to Klay, Durant leaving, the weird trades, Andrew Wiggins is on the team. Steph had a lost season in 2020. After all that, these dudes are here again. Steph is shooting the Celtics into the ether again. I mean, game four was just one of the all-time great finals performances. It was the triumphal moment of Steph Curry's career. I mean, he wept. You saw it. He wept.

Draymond Green roared, roaring, controlling the defense, getting in people's faces, looking like Draymond Green. Klay Thompson, he wasn't the same guy. He wasn't Game 6 Klay anymore, the guy who could just rip your team's soul out in just a 90-second heater. But he was still a guy. He was still a guy. And it was just this all-time confluence of events that got— I mean, you saw it. They had won one title. They had won three titles in this era to that point, two with Durant.

I think they all agreed like we needed that one to wrap the era and they got it. The only young guy really who did anything in that finals, by the way, was Jordan Poole. We know what happened to him. That championship, it's gotten in two years, it seems more immense and special than it even seemed then. That was not the best or worst. It was probably like the worst of the four Curry championship teams. It's kind of like an unremarkable championship team. And I think still, despite that, that that 2022 title

Is going to be one of those kind of random titles that we all talk about more than the average NBA championship 10, 15, 20 years from now. It's kind of like the 2011 Mavs. 2011 Mavs seemed to come up in my conversations with random sports fans way more than they should because there was just something about that team and about Dirk and about what that title felt like.

And I think that's what that's going to be. That was the storybook ending. That was it. And they caught the West that year, by the way, in a little bit of a holding pattern. Kawhi was out for the season. Clippers done. Jamal Murray out for the season. Nuggets done. But you know what? Everyone else in the league had that same opportunity. Everyone else. Warriors, the only one that took advantage of it. They're the only one that seized it. They were the only team that was steady enough to

Calm enough, poise enough to win 16 playoff games. And if that was the storybook ending, it was a damn good storybook ending. It was seven years after the first Curry-Dramon-Clay championship. That's the same number of years that passed between MJ's first title with the Bulls and his last title with the Bulls.

And this same general core, Steph Draymond-Clay, with these same general young guys, they're almost certainly not going to win another one. And I suspect the front office knows that. It is going to be interesting to see now this summer, coming off this gut punch of a loss, this disappointing season, this horrible feeling they must have given what they've accomplished, even though this is their third time in five years missing the playoffs. Interesting to see how aggressive they are and how cutthroat they are to try to keep winning around Steph

While also cutting their payroll, which they've talked about having to do. I think different people in that organization, just as would be the case with any organization, a big organization, there's a lot of thinkers there, have different levels of sentimental attachment to Clay, who's a free agent, and Draymond, who has had a volatile last 24 months.

Clay's going to draw interest around the league. He's going to want a fair salary. I can tell you for sure. Both sides took note of that drew holiday extension with the, with the Celtics four years, 135 million Draymond volatile. Like I said, still one of the 10 best defense players in the league, still a basketball genius, genius. Curry loves playing with him. He makes Curry better on offense and the Warriors would never get enough for green in a trade.

Not that they're even looking to trade him or would, but they would never get enough to make them feel okay trading him. Like he just means he just means too much to them. Do they wave Chris Paul just to save money? Like, is that what it's going to come to?

If you close off some of those avenues, like you can't trade, you re-sign Clay, his salary slot stays. We can't trade Draymond. He's too important. We just have to waive Chris Paul. Like you're running out of ways to improve the roster, but they will have two unprotected firsts to trade this summer. Plus the better half of the 2030 pick, they owe Washington. They can trade picks one to 20 out of that pick. What could they get? If they put all those picks in play plus one or two of their young players,

I don't know. What if, what if that whole series of transactions, they have to lose one of Thompson and Draymond, one of Clay and Draymond either for cost cutting purposes, or they have to be in a trade or they have to lose Wiggins or they have to let Clay Thompson walk to open up some wiggle room. Do you do that? Is it worth it? They are in a brutally hard spot. It is going to take a home run of transactions, not just one transaction, a home run string of transactions, but

for Golden State to even sniff another title, I think. Not to win another title in the Curry era. You just wish there was some way to do it. As a basketball fan, you wish these three guys could play together forever. The unfortunate reality of math is that they'd probably have to take less money to do that, to all stay together. They'd probably have to all take lower salaries like the Spurs guys did to make all the financial math work.

But man, it has been such a blast to watch the three of them play together. I mean, they were born to play together. It would be hard to find three players more stylistically different than Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson, but more complimentary of each other in terms of how they compensate for each other's weaknesses and amplify each other's strength. It's just, it's magic. It's literally, it's magic. It's why we follow sports with these three guys have together.

Curry and Green are total basketball unicorns. They should play together forever. Like I said before, even if they just kept it together and they were just kind of mediocre year after year fighting, playing their way, there would kind of be honor to that. It would be kind of its own epilogue, I guess, of the storybook ending of 2022. But if they want to win another title...

And I think they want to at least put themselves in position to at least talk about maybe sniffing one somewhere along the way during Curry's remaining years. And he's that good. You got to do it. The ending may have to be something a little bit more dramatic and unexpected than that. I have no idea what it's going to be, but they're going to need that home run string of transactions that I talked about to get back into that picture. And if they never do, 2022, that was the storybook ending. And everything after that is...

anticlimactic and we'll see what happens but it was certainly eye-opening to watch the kings wallop them the other night and obviously raises a ton of questions about the team and the core that has defined the nba for the last 10 or 12 years all right let's bring on david thorpe

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By the time you listen to this, it will be tomorrow when the real games are starting. Saturday, the playoffs. This is why we do this. The biggest games, the best teams, the strategy, the X's and O's. And it's time for one of my favorite annual traditions. We used to call it 8x8, 8 minutes for each of the 8 first round series. We never actually did 8 minutes on any series except if it was like...

Bucks, Bulls, when the Bulls had no shot, we would just wipe that one away in four minutes. Now it's six by something. We'll call it six by six just for symmetry sake. It's not going to be six by six. We don't know the 1-8 series yet. David Thorpe, author of Basketball is Jazz, part of the True Hoop conglomerate. How are you, sir? I'm doing great. Yeah, it's a double-edged sword getting honored to do this with you because it

I've watched a lot of tape. I would have to anyway, but yeah, if I'm going to be on your show, I've got to, I've got to give it everything I got. So I'm going to do the best I can to keep up with you and, and,

and try to give some kind of insightful wisdom into what spectacle we're about to partake in. Yeah, sometimes the film study is not super useful. Like we're going to have some series where all the games were like before January 5th or January or before the trade deadline. You got to go back to the previous season and look at it. You're like, oh, that guy was on that team last year, that guy. But it does prime your brain to sort of look at or look for the right stuff.

When the series starts, as you know, per tradition, I order our discussion by my own personal interest level in each first round series. Let me tell you, coach, there is not a clunker so far. I mean, we'll see what happens in the first round. I guess we should pause for a second because we do have the two big news items that are going to impact potentially what the one eight series are, or even who gets to the one eight series Zion Williamson. I haven't done a podcast since that, that was, uh,

Such a bummer and such a shocker because you didn't really even see anything happen. And this was, I mean, what an arc that would have been to go from your low point against the Lakers with the nation watching, everyone questioning your conditioning, your weight as personal and as nasty as it gets after the Vegas game, all the way around to...

Doing everything you can to get your team over that Lakers team with the basketball world watching. 40 points. Brandon Ingram coming back. I'm not going to call him a no-show. It's the second game back from injury. It's a tough spot for any player, but was benched down the stretch. And it felt like they're just about to get over the hump. And now he's out with a hamstring injury. We got Pelicans Kings tomorrow. Just quick your reaction to that one, Coach. I mean, I don't know what else to say. It's just...

a gut punch. He's in much better shape now than he was three, four months ago. I don't know that you can just sort of blame it on conditioning body. I don't know. I just don't know enough about the mechanics of it, but I just know that was a pound. My pound, my fist on the table and discussed moment. I'm sure he did the same thing in the locker room, right? When he got back there. Yeah, it was, uh,

I mean, I'm, you know, Corey Brewer is like a son to me and he's really done a great job as has Willie and the staff with, with the arc of Zion. And I'm heartbroken for my, for my kid from Portland, Tennessee, who had really spent a lot of time and just breathing spirit into Zion and, and that staff had taken him and, you know, Zion, you know,

has this incredible gift as a scorer. We always get caught up in the athleticism, but he's truly a gifted bucket getter. And it kind of got away from him to start the year this year. For a good period of time, he was just okay at getting buckets, but it was coming back and you could see it in his zeal for passing and willingness to get off the ball. A little peskier on defense. I think fitness makes a difference. Jokic knows that story, as does Kevin Love.

This is heartbreaking. All these injuries just hit me. Just watching Embiid limp around last night wasn't any more fun. We just need you guys to help me. And the other one in that game, of course, is the Knicks are going to draw the Sixers, which is the matchup that everyone was telling them to potentially duck in the last game of the season when Tibbs was like, we're going for the win. We don't throw games here. And they got the Embiid matchup, which we'll talk about. But the flip side of that is Boston –

probably, I don't know if they're too good of a team to breathe a sigh of relief, maybe a slight just sort of exhale that Embiid is now joining the Bucs and the Knicks on the other side of the bracket from them. And into their bracket will either come the Chicago Bulls, Alex Caruso with an ankle sprain, Woj says he's going to try to hopefully maybe give it a go, game time decision kind of thing in the play-in. And the Heat, more pointedly,

You know, the team everyone fears, the team everyone will respect no matter what their seed is. Looked like they were going to do it again in Philly. Just like nobody's playing well. Somehow we might win the game. I don't know what's happening. Jimmy's not having a good game. Bam's not having a good game. We might win. This is heat voodoo again. Tyler Herosman took a million shots. Then Nick Batum has the game of his last three years, I guess. And Jimmy Butler...

Jimmy Butler with an MCL sprain is going to be out for an undetermined period of time. Certainly will be out tomorrow. Certainly would appear to be out at least the first round, if not beyond. A break for Boston. And obviously you have this

This just terror of a team that everybody on some level fears and respects that has just had its best player removed from it. And it's just hard. I mean, it's obviously like Boston. That should be a walkover. Whichever one of these teams wins this playing game should be a walkover for the Celtics. They'd walk over a lot of teams better than those guys, too, in a seven-game series. Yeah, when the game started, it was 9-2, I want to say, favor Philly.

And I just thought to myself, you know, oh, they're going to be booing at some point in this game. Miami's not going anywhere. It's who they are. And missing, you know, Duncan Robinson and Richardson and Terry Rozier. And then Jimmy gets hurt and still plays. And, of course, they're right there at the end. It's a credit to this consistency of what the Heat do. But, yeah, neither of those teams can even a full strike. Boston's a juggernaut. I really believe that.

And they've got to exercise some demons. They probably love to do it against Miami, to be honest. But either way, I think they're matured up now. They're such a veteran team, Zach. They're not – yeah, I'm sure they exhaled a little bit, but they're locked in. They've got to worry about game one. That's it. But they're definitely a loaded team. I said earlier this week, I think Boston more so than Denver even –

Because Boston had some hiccups late in the season, and there's been a little bit of like, oh, are they going in on the wrong foot? I think Kendrick Perkins kind of sounded the alarm on TV last week saying they may not be tough enough or something like that.

I think Boston is going to come out in the first two playoff games and we're all going to be sitting there like, Oh my God. Like they've, they've been, they've been saving this gear for a while now and they're going to run over whoever they're playing in the first couple of games with that. Those series are not set yet. I order our six by six in terms of my personal interest. I am a dictator. This is my fiefdom. And there, as I said before, there's not a clunker in the bunch. These are all really fun series, uh,

And every one of them has at least one, if not both teams facing immense pressure, both short-term expectations wise and what the consequence of an early loss in the playoffs could be medium, long-term wise. And we will start in that vein with the three, six series in the Western Conference, the third seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, 17th in offense, first with a bullet in defense against the six-seeded Phoenix Suns, 10th in offense, 13th in defense, and

This is just an irresistible clash of styles, a monstrously huge team that is a little shaky on offense and just tightens the grip everywhere on defense against a smaller team, a finesse team, a jump shooting team and talk about teams facing pressure. I mean, the sons are obviously all in, all in as all in as you can be. And the wolves are,

staring down this financial cliff of like, can we even come close to affording to keep this whole team together? Now that very issue has become the subject of a public and ugly disagreement between two would be majority owners or controlling owners of the team. Glenn Taylor on one side, Mark Laurie and A-Rod on the other side and a first round loss.

It's tough to justify the kind of bill they're going to have to pay for a team that loses in the first round. And what a bitter pill that would be to swallow after such a great season, the best season this team has had since Kevin Garnett left all those years ago. I love this series. I cannot wait for game one. And, you know, for me,

I started at, I'm looking at the first thing. I mean, I know what the answer is going to be, but the first thing I'm looking for is who's Carl Anthony Towns guarding.

How does Phoenix try to exploit the fact that he's probably going to be guarding Grayson Allen? He's not going to guard Beal. He's not going to guard Booker. And he's not going to guard Durant. And Rudy Gobert is going to guard Nurkic. Process of elimination, he's going to have to guard a mobile three-point shooter. How does that look for Carl Anthony Townsend? I'm just going to, before I kick it to you, I'm just going to read you numbers. Suns won this matchup 3-0 in the regular season. Cat and Gobert together, minus 24 in 37 minutes.

Reid, Nas Reid and Rudy Gobert together, minus 39 in 30 minutes. Nas Reid and Kat together, minus 9 in 20 minutes. The Suns shooting played the Minnesota double big lineups off the floor. And that's the pivot point for me. Can they do that again? And if they can...

Do the supplementary wing players, the Nikhil Alexander-Walkers, the Kyle Anderson who you mentioned in your preview could be a big piece in this series. Do they have enough to fill in the gaps? I think this is a fascinating chess match that starts at that town's defense pivot point for me. When I watched the last game they played, that was the first thing I saw. You really couldn't miss it.

He was guarding Grayson Allen, who you say is a mobile shooter. He might be the best shooter in the league this year among the top few, as you know. And he's a tough player. Forget about the old stuff in the past. He's good. He's not great. He's good. And Cat looked like he was on roller skates, and that's not a good thing. His stance is bad to begin with. He was just...

I just kind of lost as the ball moves around. But I, I, I knew you'd bring in some lineup stuff and I'm glad you did. I trusted you would do it. I keep thinking about who's, who's Bradley Beal going to be. Is he going to be Bradley Beal in April? Where if, when I tell you his stats, you're not really even going to believe it. You know, 60 something percent from three, 20 plus points a game. Who does that?

And, or is he going to be a lot more ordinary? I think that's a fair question. I feel like Booker and KD, we pretty much can bank on them to be very good, if not great. If they're superstars, Minnesota is even more trouble. Beal to me is the interesting thing. Nurk to some degree as well, obviously. I think he's,

If he's not going to do a bunch of Gortat screens, Frank Bogle should take him out of the game because he can Gortat the hell out of those big guys with his size. And he's a good screener. I love that former son, Marcin Gortat, is getting a little love in the series. And on Beal...

You know, that's the other piece. That's who Mike Conley is going to be guarding. And that's the other place that the Suns have attacked in recent matchups. And that's when the Suns are at their best. When it's not just your turn, my turn. Hey, we can win that way. But when it's like, hey, how can we get...

How can we be more than the sum of our parts? How can we go from a Durant, Grayson Allen pick and roll to attack towns, swing it to Booker to attack Conley? And then we've got the Wolves defense, the best defense in the league with Ant, Jaden and Rudy trying to run around and put out fires everywhere. They can do that, but that's when it gets tough.

The very first note I have, Zach, after I, when I do, I kind of do a 5,000 foot view statistically a little bit different than you. I don't look, I only go back to March 1st. I don't really care what happened in October, November for most of these teams, especially. But after I do all this statistical stuff that I watch film, the very first note I have is that Beal versus Conley is a tough matchup for many. He could just, I love Mike Conley, who doesn't, but he can get bullied and doesn't get any easier with Booker.

Like he can do the same thing. So that, that becomes, you know, if you can start out a defense in fail mode, meaning, all right, we're already in trouble. Now it's scrambling from there and cat's not a scrambler.

And they can pay the price scrambling because of Grayson's shooting. So Phoenix's weapons on offense, if Minnesota had to play Phoenix every night, they wouldn't be the best defensively. They're sixth best in smarts first, which is still very good. They wouldn't be that high. They're getting fat on some bad teams. Phoenix offensively is another level. They're playing well.

One of the things that Phoenix does in this matchup, to your point about how weird the sort of head-to-head matchups are, is they'll run Booker. They'll run a staggered pick and roll for Booker.

um, with Grayson Allen and Yusuf Nurkic. And they'll use those two guys because they're being guarded by both of the Minnesota big guys, Kat and Rudy. So you get them both moving around and flying around. Um, and obviously, you know, the other thing people are going to look at is this is an elite pull up jump shooting team against a Rudy Gobert defense. And I think Rudy's much better than he's given credit for it coming out to the three point arc if he has to, but it'll be, you know, you like to start back and then get forced to,

To come out a little bit. If you're a Gobert. Brooke Lopez type. I don't think he's going to have the luxury. Of starting back. Even with.

As good as Minnesota's perimeter guys are trailing around screens and not getting hit by screens. But let's talk about some of the advantages that the wolves might have too. I mean, first of all, they have Jaden McDaniels to guard Devin Booker. That's the matchup they've liked in the past more than him on Durant. They've put Anthony Edwards on Kevin Durant and, and it's actually done a pretty good job. And, you know, like that's, and, and,

who's guarding Anthony Edwards for the Suns? The answer has often been Grayson Allen. And Ant's going to have to win that matchup in a lot of different ways for Minnesota. And I think, look, he's been up to the test in the playoffs before. That's a tough matchup for them. And Ant's going to have to have a big series. And the other thing with Towns is, you know,

They'll guard him with Durant and Durant has Durant's done well defending towns. He's held his own defense, not more than held his own to considering the physical advantages that towns has Minnesota. The sons are going to switch a lot.

And Minnesota has been able to get pretty much anybody on the Suns they want guarding Carl Towns. And he's just come back from a knee injury, but he's going to get chances against pick a son. They're going to switch everybody onto him. Grayson Allen, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal. Like he's going to have to manufacture some buckets with power and not just jump shooting. He's proven he can do that, but it's a big, big series for him in like a million different ways.

Well, and like you said, it just, you don't come off from injury and he was out for a while, just rolling. It's going to take a bit. And I, you know, I don't always put a lot of faith in the importance of the first game of the series, but there's a few in this first round that I do. And this is one of them. Minnesota doesn't want to be chasing Phoenix down. Oh, one they'll get healthier with towns. You hope, but it's just a hell of a team that have to chase. And I'm glad you mentioned Edwards. I was watching him a lot.

He's averaged 14 a game against Phoenix this year. That's the lowest against any team in the West. And it's Grayson Allen and Beal guarding him. So what is Phoenix doing to make his life difficult? I literally wrote, and I think I put it in my preview. I don't know. I couldn't see anything special other than

Vogel's got them playing organized, committed defense. They're not amazing. You're not going to be pulling out your textbooks and saying, oh, compared to anything, they're really great at this. They do a nice job. OKC calls it a stick hand in the air. They get their arms up. Bobo does it. KD does it. They just, they're present. They know what they're supposed to do. They execute their plan, which would make any good defensive coordinator in the NFL very happy.

And they kind of live with what they're living with, right? They're trying to take away stuff. Minnesota plays slower than Phoenix. I think that's a mistake in this series, Zach. I think they, you know, be opportunistic, obviously. You don't force it too much. But Anthony Edwards in the open court is a different animal against this team than he is against Phoenix in just the half court. Because Phoenix is older and slower and not quite as athletic as

All right. Edwards is a remarkable talent. And I'm glad you mentioned what he's done in the playoffs. Some guys haven't proven anything. He has, he, this is, you know, I wrote this a couple of years ago when they first traded for Rudy. It's a bet on a, it's a bet on how he's going to be a superstar. Well, here we go. They were in contention for a one seat going to the last game. That's exactly what Tim Connolly had to hope for when he made the deal. And now they're in the playoffs and they're, they're playing an older 60. Like you should win this series.

I don't think they will as it happens, but they should. Kat's injury notwithstanding, Anthony Edwards has to be just remarkable a bunch of times. And it's not going to be easy unless he really pushes because in transition, he's incredible.

One thing that they will mix in, and it's hard to do with Nurkic because it's not his strong suit defensively, they will occasionally throw almost a blitz at Ant to force the ball out of his hands and make Minnesota beat you with the pass. Like if it's an Ant-Rudy pick and roll, force him to hit Gobera on the roll early and make Minnesota pass around and make plays rather than give Ant just a downhill drive.

At Nurkic, they'll mix that up. Also, Beal will guard him some. Rose O'Neal will guard him some. A couple other things for this series. The Suns are third in free throw rate. They get to the line a lot. One of the only weak points for Minnesota is they foul a decent amount. So Minnesota's got to watch their fouls. On the flip side...

Minnesota is a turnover prone offense. They had the eighth worst turnover in the league. Phoenix force is no turnover. So maybe Minnesota can have a little more ball security than they normally have. Their depth is going to be huge. I mentioned Alexander Walker. I think this could be a big Kyle Anderson series. Jada McDaniels. I mentioned taking the ball out of Ant's hands. He's going to have his three point shot has been wildly up and down. He went through a horrible slump late in the season before coming out of it. He's going to have to make shots.

I think this is going to be a really fun series with some strategic tweaks. One of the, and the other thing that Minnesota has got to find a way to punish the sons on the glass, get extra possessions on the glass. Their offensive rebounding rate against Phoenix in the regular season was almost 33%. That's huge. That's one out of every three of your misses. You get back without, without, without,

kneecapping its transition defense, which historically for the Wolves has been a tough balance to strike. They're going to have to nail it in this series. I think it's going to be a great series. I have to say, and you can add any thoughts that we've left out in a second that you want to get in.

I think this was a worst case scenario for Minnesota. I think as a first round opponent, the Suns quietly won 49 games. And other than that one, just two inexplicable losses, one to the Spurs without Wemby and another to the Clippers when they were down 35 to four, have played mostly pretty damn well for the last 20 games. And they just bring some matchup problems against the double big lineups that

have tilted toward the Phoenix strengths and not the Minnesota strengths. Minnesota's size has not won the day against Phoenix's shooting and playmaking in that small, big conflict. I'm picking Phoenix to win. And I guess since they don't have home court and I don't want to pick against Minnesota instead, I guess Phoenix and six would be my pick. I don't feel great about it. Like Minnesota could make the conference finals. I just think this is a worst case matchup for the Wolves.

Well, listen, the numbers tell us that Minnesota owns the paint top 10 in opponent scoring in the paint for reasons we all understand.

Phoenix doesn't care. They're 29th in scoring in the paint. Like they don't, it just doesn't bother them at all. And then I looked it up. Phoenix is, I think a 123 or 128.7 points per a hundred as an offensive rating against Minnesota. No one scored on Minnesota like that all year. That was number one in the West anyway, against Minnesota. So that's the definition of a bad matchup. A team that's beat you three times and scored at will against you better than anybody else.

Edwards, to me, is the one he can change everything. Obviously, we hope Kat is healthy and all that. They've got it. Phoenix has to account for Rudy rolling and all of that, too. You have to take away the lob and make those guys finish every time. And Edwards has to get off the ball some, Zach. He's 22 still. He won't be 23 until August. He's a very young man. We can forget that because of his body and his talent and his production.

But he still got, he still has to learn about the game. It took Kawhi longer to figure out how I got to get off the ball for us to score, not just me to score. And then when he did, he was the best player in the world for a while. As a healthy guy, Edwards has to get off it early. He'll get it back. Don't take it one on three and try to score in the crowd. That's what Phoenix is hoping he'll do. And I just think he's got some, still got some pain to go through before he, because they're going to win some series with him. I just don't think it'll be this year. I don't feel good picking Phoenix.

I haven't felt good about the Suns for like more than 10 consecutive days at any point in the season. They have played. They'll play two games. We're like, all right, they got it. They're figured out. They're using Grayson Allen as a screener. The ball's flying around. They're playing the right lineups. And then the next game, it'll be like, these guys like each other. Like, do they enjoy this experience? Is it just like, is this just work for them? Do they hate this?

and there's no room for that in the playoffs. There's no room for a game of that. There's no room for a game where I'm in a bad mood because I'm not getting the ball enough. I'm standing in the corner. There's just no room for that. There is no margin of error for that. There's no room for that against a team as good as Minnesota, so I don't feel good about it, but that's my pick. Okay, series number two. Woo! Amtrak Corridor Special.

The Sixers and the Knicks, the 2-7 seed in the Eastern Conference, all my Knicks fans' friends, all of them, and I have a lot going back a long way, were rooting so hard for Miami in that playing game. They want no part of Joel Embiid. The Sixers have not lost a game since Joel Embiid came back. It would be very interesting to

This feels like a two seed against a two seed, really. And it would be very interesting to see which of these teams would actually end up with the better record if we got the current versions of them healthy for an entire season. You would default to the Sixers because they've been a number one, number two, number three seed in the East all these years. Their net rating with Maxi and a beat on the floor is monstrous. But then you look at the Knicks and it's like...

When they have Brunson and Ananobi, like Randall would be almost a bonus, they're plus 23 per 100 possessions with Brunson and Ananobi on the floor. If they had that full team for a whole season, I don't know who the better team is. I understand why Knicks fans are scared. The Sixers have, in theory at least, the best player in the series and the third best player in the series in Tyrese Maxey with Jalen Brunson in between.

That's usually a recipe for winning a series, even when you don't have home court advantage. These were two very good teams, elite teams really, went healthy. And it really starts with, well, it starts with Embiid. It starts with the way Jalen Brunson plays in the pick and roll.

the way he is going to hunt Tyrese Maxey, like Tyrese Maxey is not going to guard Jalen Brunson and Jalen Brunson is not going to guard Tyrese Maxey. And yet they're going to end up guarding each other a lot because the respective offenses will force that matchup and say, okay, go cook now. And one of the ways Jalen Brunson cooks is attack a big, like Embiid who likes to sit back in the paint and just mid range, mid range, pivoting game, whatever. And, and,

And Embiid in the past has mixed in some blitzes, mixed in some traps, gotten really aggressive against Jalen Brunson. And he does not physically look like a guy who can do that.

for 30 possessions a game and also dominate on offense and we'll see how he looks and maybe improves physically throughout the series but it starts there and it starts with that brunson maxi like matchup non-matchup of like mutual avoidance and then we're going to force each other to guard each other and then maybe we'll cook one-on-one cooking the pick and roll but i

It's a series where the Sixers really will be missed, assuming he continues to not play or only play a little bit. DeAnthony Melton, who was their primary defender on Brunson in the past. Right. And the wild card, we've only seen it in one game for the Knicks. It was on January 5th. OG Ananobi guarded Jalen Brunson. I'm sorry, OG Ananobi guarded Tyrese Maxey in that game. He did not in the recent game when he had come back from injury. That's a little wild card for the Knicks to break out if they choose to use it. But...

I just want to see what Embiid looks like, because obviously if he's 90% or better, he's by far the best player in the series. He could win it single-handedly. What are you looking for when this bad boy kicks off? Joel Embiid's health. I watched that whole game the other night, it was last night, and heard the announcers say,

He looked tired in warmups. I, you know, I don't know why, I don't know what's going on. He's very fit in terms of how he looks, you know, he's, he's, he's lean and strong, but he just, he didn't have it last night and he's amazing. So he's super skilled. He's almost playing like Jokic. He doesn't rely on athleticism the whole lot. And he just has all this incredible skill. If the Knicks played faster, I think that'd be a problem for him, but they don't. They were 30th in pace the last 15 games.

But I watched one of the games they played where Embiid was pretty healthy. The Knicks didn't really try to help too much on him. They showed here and there. They kind of dove in and dove out. They kind of let Hartenstein just battle with them, and he did well. I mean, Joel puts up nice numbers, but he didn't score 60.

He wasn't diming up everybody. The Knicks looked solid, staying home on people. I thought it caused Philly some problems. And Miami yesterday, they were doubling on the dribbler versus Bam. They were kind of doubling on the catch versus the rest of the heat.

And I think Philly is used to that. I don't think many teams feel like they can just have the integrity of their defense, stay the same when Andy has the ball in good spots on the court. And I think it makes them uncomfortable. I really do. So to me, everything goes around just how healthy when Joel Embiid, when he was healthy this year, I thought he was easily the MVP. I thought I'd been unanimous winner. I think it was that much better than everybody. And I thought Yoko was that guy for the last few years. I thought it was your well this year. And, uh,

If he can get to be that, I would think Philly has a big advantage. And I understand why the Knicks would want to avoid him. He's not that guy right now. And we'll see if he can play his way into it. There is some time between some games, but I'm not encouraged by what I saw last night. That's what the first round is good for, rest. You'll have like a random, like, oh, there are three days between games three and four in this series. That's weird. I'm glad you mentioned his passing. I can't remember which game it was off the top of my head. There was a recent Sixers game where he threw Embiid

three or four of the best passes I've ever seen him throw and out of different situations it wasn't always just like a hard double make the right read it was he was making reads way ahead of the defense and like threading needles they were incredible incredible passes um the other thing that's going to test him physically in this series is you know Brunson's going to move him around and drag him out and by the way one of the things that has as

one of the bizarre benefits of Randall being out. And I think the Knicks need Randall. They're obviously not going to have him this year, but I think to get to the finals, they would have needed Randall. Well, who knows? I mean, I'm done doubting this Knicks. I mean, I never doubted. I was high on them from the beginning, but they could surprise me. I don't know. But,

But Brunson has gotten used to the kitchen sink getting thrown at him. And the Knicks have gotten used to what are the other four guys on the floor have to do when teams are doubling Jalen 35 feet from the rim? Okay, I got to come up as a release valve. And when I do that, Jalen hits me. The defense is in rotation over here. Josh Hart makes the right play. Devin Chenzo makes the right play. There's just a connectivity that they have against aggressive defenses that is really, really encouraging if I'm a Knicks fan.

The other thing on beat, I mean, like he's the biggest, baddest guy on the floor, but he gets knocked around a lot. And when you get knocked around a lot, that's taxing. And nobody knocks you around like the New York Knicks. They just are just a physically punishing team. And they are number one in the NBA in offensive rebounding. The Sixers are 25th in defensive rebounding. They're a little bit better when Embiid's on the floor, but not that much better. Right.

He is going to need to be a one-man force field on the glass against all those dudes, the Mitchell Robinsons, the Hartensteins, that are crashing and crashing and crashing. That is physically taxing work. But no one on the Knicks – look, they have big bodies. Hartenstein's a big body. He's a really good defender. Mitchell Robinson's a huge body, really good defender. They can't guard a healthy NBA. He's putting them in the basket. You have to help even against those guys. And then they have Maxie who –

D'Vincenzo has guarded him a lot. Yeah. He's too fast for D'Vincenzo. He's way too fast for Brunson to the point that sometimes I wouldn't even... Like, if I had one of those matchups, I might not even set a screen for him. I might just say, hey, go. Just go, break down the defense, and take it from there. And McBride does an okay job on him, and Ananobi guarded him that one game. That's sort of a wild card for them. And Maxie just could go off in this series. He's that fast, and he's that explosive. They just feel...

There's a lot. It's, it's not just in beat. It's like, there it's suddenly Kelly Uber is like the third most important guy on the team. Kyle Lowry is starting. Kyle Lowry is going to guard Jalen Brunson. I bet. I mean like that, that might be the matchup to start things off. Um, it's, it's weird how much flux the Sixers are in, but they have two of the three best guys in the series and a really good coach. Knicks have a really good coach too. I think this is a fun battle and a lot of it is going to be this sort of guard versus guard warfare. Um,

That a lot of Knicks series, frankly, have devolved into almost. Yeah, I'm also looking at how DiVincenzo and McBride play. DiVincenzo, 19 a game post-all-start break. Obviously, that's huge for them. You mentioned just the way they play, you know, once Brunson gets off the ball. Hart's such a, he's just a smart cutter. He's a winner.

The way McBride played, I was watching him on tape today. He's part of their best lineup. As a starter, if he's in instead of OG, they're plus 7.4. And they've done that 14 games, not just two or three. So that definitely helped a little bit. But I still think like if Joel Embiid's you'll cook in as a healthy player, I would give the Sixers a big advantage. I don't care where they start their first two games.

I just last night really scared me. I just did not see a guy that's going to even a second round, especially, but even the first round with, I think they're two of their, their first two games only have one day in between. I think that's right. I think New York's got a real advantage there. Just playing bully ball as much as they can and make Joel just beat them almost by himself. And I think that's going to be very taxing for him to be able to do. They could really use, and I'm hesitant to say it,

They could really use Philly.

Like, can Tobias Harris just get us 25 points in a couple games? Just random supplementary offense that he has not been providing enough of. He's going to get there. Philly switches anybody on him. They don't care. I mean, the Knicks switch anybody on them. They'll switch Steven Chenzo on him. They'll say, go ahead and post him up. Like, sometimes these series come down to, can Tobias Harris, somebody like that, just get us something? Yeah, I totally agree. That's why I mentioned DDV and McBride. They're really, you know, cooking, really shooting it.

Knicks have a swagger about them. I love the fact that they try to beat the Bulls, knowing they're going to get Philly. Like, I almost feel like they were rooting for Philly last night. They bring that big fella on. Let's go. Like, that's their mentality. Like, you and your Tibbs impression. They're not ducking anybody. We have more than enough to win. Who would you pick? Yeah, I'm leaning New York just because I just didn't like what I saw with Embiid's health last night.

I'm also picking the Knicks. Knicks in seven will be my official pick. That'd be great. There's something I like. There's just something I like about this team. I'm a little worried Tibbs ran him into the ground late in the season when everybody was playing insane minutes totals. That's a fair worry. But there's just something. They, like, are eager for the fight. And...

And objectively, Joel just isn't Joel yet. I think this is a really good matchup though, but I'll pick Nixon-Sev. Church's original recipe is back. You can never go wrong with original.

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Okay, fine. It's a lot of sweat. But with HubSpot's AI-powered marketing tools, launching benchmark-breaking campaigns is easier than ever. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Okay, series number three. Another rematch. The defending champion Denver Nuggets against the Los Angeles Lakers come out of the play-in tournament again. Lakers becoming the kings of the play-in tournament. Or the kings could be the kings of the play-in tournament, actually. Rematch of last year's conference finals.

We know the Nuggets have won, I think, eight in a row against the Lakers. Swept them last year. Competitive sweep. Have to call it a competitive sweep. 3-0 this year.

This is going to be – I mean, we know what the chess match is, right? It all starts from Jokic and radiates out from there. The Lakers have mixed up coverages on Jokic. They've had Anthony Davis guard him sometimes. They seem to prefer, though, the other way of having usually Rui Hachimura guard him and have AD on Aaron Gordon lurking as a helper, disrupting passing lanes, coming across from one dunker spot to the other to block shots. They seem to like that better, and you can actually –

You can actually kind of understand why, because on the possessions where Jokic posts up AD, AD can't guard him. And then there's just no help that bothers Jokic at all. There's no help in the passing lanes. There's no help at the rim. And so you kind of understand why they favor that strategy over the other one. The Lakers, 28 and 14 in their last 42 games, they became a good team. They did. Just a good team, though.

Even in that 28 and 14 stretch, they were plus 2.8 per 100 possessions. That was 14th in the league. My reason, if I'm trying to be optimistic about the Lakers making this series...

Number one, I'm a little encouraged by Gabe Vincent and what he might offer is a wild card guarding Jamal Murray. An assignment that has gone mostly to Austin Reeves because it can't go to D'Angelo Russell who got played off the floor in this matchup last year. And number two...

It's been 40, 50 games now of the Lakers being a good offense to a very good offense. They were not that last season and Denver was able to just grind them to dust. If they can almost keep up with Denver's firepower, I think they found something with this starting five. I think they're in the best LeBron AD two man game rhythm that maybe those two guys have been in since the bubble, but

and figuring out better ways to position the shooters around it. And against Denver specifically, uh,

They have found ways because Denver likes to play aggressive, right? They like to have Jokic come up to the level of the screen and everyone's got to rotate behind them, play, rotate in, rotate out, play four on three. They found ways to sort of script it. So Jamal Murray is the last line of defense in a lot of pick and rolls and AD is just finishing over him or they're having to collapse and have extra help come from the sides and all that. If the Lakers offense can hold up,

I think they look, no one has real answers for Jokic and no one has any answers for the Murray Jokic two man game. I think they, they have some tools this year that they didn't have last year and they haven't closed the door on a Jared Vanderbilt comeback at some point in this series is another guy who could guard Murray. I'm not sure. I like the idea of introducing like a total non-shooter into this ecosystem right now, but it's, it's just out there. Um,

Look, obviously I'm going to pick the Nuggets. Everybody's going to pick the Nuggets. They have the best player in the world. They have a two-man game that has been...

I mean, I just feel like the ultimate trump card shot in the NBA is the Jokic floater. When they run that two-man game and they set that screen, like he's straddling the three-point line. It's kind of a lower screen because both of those guys don't need to get all the way to the rim. They don't need to be at the arc. And you drop and Murray just pocket pass, nine-foot floater. That's a bad shot for a lot of guys. Jokic just makes it every time. And by the way, if you like old school basketball, Denver, 30%.

30th and three point rate this year. The Lakers 28th and three point rate this year. Two of the top five and getting to the rim. This is an old school brute force series. It all starts with pick, pick either. Like is the Lakers offense real? What kind of answers do they have or what hope do they have on, on, on your pitch? So I, after they won in New Orleans, I heard LeBron say, uh,

We just have to execute. And I think what he meant, and he might've even said this part too is, you know, limit their turnovers. And so I thought, okay, maybe that's something I didn't catch when they played last. So I looked it up. They played March 2nd. The Lakers only had seven turnovers and they went 12 of 29 from three and they lost by 10. And that to me is the problem because I don't think they can solve Jokic. I,

The Nuggets had average 124.8 in the three games they played against the Lakers. That was the second best, I think, in the Western League against L.A., who's a solid defensive team. Not amazing, solid. Jokic is cheat code. He's a seven-foot slow cheat code. Everyone knows it. And so what do you do? Well, the Lakers are in second league since March 1st in points in the paint.

And the Nuggets are bottom eight, 22nd or so on defensive points in the paint. And so you think, all right, that's the way to attack, but they're not going to be efficient enough, Zach, by just killing in the paint. So to me, they don't take a lot of threes, as you said. They take, I think, 33 a game. That's 26 in the league since March 1st anyway.

And they're the third best shooting team since then, 39.5. The Nuggets are next at 39.4. That's the irony of all of this is they're two of the best shooting teams who don't really love shooting threes. They really are old school. But I think they've got to flip the script a little bit, Zach, and establish paint dominance. The Nuggets do a great job of staying home. They're trying to eliminate. They're not going to shoot a bunch of threes, but they're not going to let you shoot a lot of threes. Why? Because they know they're going to score you in twos efficiently because of who they have.

So I think the Lakers have to try to get the nuggets to do something to get more resources to help in the paint when they're getting bludgeoned in there. And then the Lakers got to be one of the bomb away and shoot 42, 43, 44, 48 threes and hope for the best, at least early in the series. Even, even one, when I was telling someone today,

You know, people forget Rocky knocked Apollo out in that first round. Like, and then Apollo was a champ. Obviously it was a movie, but that's how you beat some of these scenes sometimes that just, I feel like Denver, I wrote on my notes. The thing I'm most concerned about is Denver's casualness. They own the Lakers. I think it's eight straight over two plus seasons now. Find a way to knock in 23 threes and shoot 50 of them and beat them by one at the buzzer. And then let's see what kind of glass jaw Denver has or doesn't have.

Because they've really been roaring pretty easy coasting for a while now. Yeah, I don't think there is. And I say this as someone who's picked Denver to win the West the entire season and just loves watching this team play. I don't think they're kind of as invulnerable as some people are making them out to be. And maybe me. And...

as they were even last year. I think this is going to be a tougher playoff run for them. Their bench is just so helter-skelter up and down. Those non-Jokic minutes are an adventure. And I think the Lakers are going to be able to generate good shots. Like that LeBron AD pick and roll is getting good shots for AD. It's getting good threes that Austin Reeves is going to have to make threes. D'Lo is going to have to get back to making threes. And I think they'll be able to get good shots. Yeah, Jokic is just...

I don't, no one knows what the answer is. Like this defense that they're going to play a lot with AD is like the lurker. I call him the lurker on Aaron Gordon.

It's effective. It has moments. But Denver just has so many counters for that, some of which they have barely used this year. I think you'll see a Jokic-Gordon pick and roll more often. Like, okay, we're not going to let you just hang out AD on the baseline. We're going to bring you into the action. A Murray-Gordon pick and roll with Jokic somewhere else to receive the ball. Another thing they've liked to do is –

They'll put Jokic at the nail and just say, instead of posting up on one block with Aaron Gordon on the other, where AD can really kind of cover a lot of space around the rim, we'll just like take the post up, put it at the nail in the middle where you have a lot more vision and a lot more angles to play with.

And the other thing in this series, like as cool as Denver's half court offenses and what a chess master Jokic is, they won this series last year in transition. Every single time Jokic got a contested rebound, he was off to what is the races for him. And it was just five on four, five on four, five on four. And you just, this image of like AD panic in his eyes, trying to catch up, knowing Jokic is about to go knife to the heart to your defense. Um,

That won Denver the series more than anything else this year. Denver's got to be careful, or the Lakers have to be careful with that. And the other thing is, I forgot to mention on the Lakers pick and roll, I wonder if Denver will flirt with

Hey, we don't have to be so aggressive on this LeBron AD pick and roll. Like I know Joker, he likes to be aggressive. Like you, you might be able to sit back in a drop a little bit more and maybe we can stay out of rotation and not give up a lot of threes. Like that's one possible thing to look for, but look, it all comes down to like when it's thick,

Jamal Murray runs a pick and roll with KCP to get D'Lo on him and then flows into a pick and roll with Jokic and they get a good shot. Like that's just, I just don't know that the Lakers have an answer for that or if anybody does. Well, they don't, but they got to try to find it. They got to score them. It really has to be, you know, D'Angelo, we, we, we can criticize his defense, but he's truly an elite offensive player, spectacular offensive player. And he needs to be like, he needs to, he needs to go toe to toe with Murray and,

and outscore them sometimes. And that gives them a fighter's chance, but they're going to like, I don't see any rock fights. There's some series we're coming up here. That's going to have some rock fights. There shouldn't be in this one. And I'm glad you mentioned the fast break too. The Lakers didn't learn their lesson in the last few months of the season of 25th and opponents fast break points. They've got to get back. They, they, they've got to make Denver play five and five as much as possible. So they're not so over the top efficient.

And then they've got to out-shoot them and be willing to take more threes. If they don't, they're just going to keep doing what they've been doing. They're going to keep losing, I think. They've got to change it up a little bit. I think the Lakers are going to make this a series. Maybe I'm trying to wish it into existence. They've got to win the free throw battle by a lot. And they tend to. And Denver is 21st with 10th from worst in defensive free throw rates. So they foul a fair bit. They don't get to the line much themselves, which...

Against the Lakers actually may be a good thing because the Lakers just don't give you free throws. So if you don't need free throws, you're probably better off than a team who really subsists on free throws against the Lakers. I'm going to pick Denver. I want to pick Denver in 5.5, which I realize is impossible. So I'll pick Denver in six. I think the Lakers are getting at least a game in this series.

I wouldn't be surprised at all that they do, especially on the road or even game two. Game one's going to be tough. They've had a couple of days off, but they're at altitude. Yeah, I pick Denver, but I don't think it's going to be a sweep. I think the Lakers are a good team. Yeah, they're just not Denver. Series number four, Clippers-Mavs 3.0.

to top six offenses to just about league average defenses star power galore um and rarely do we get a series between two teams who looked like championship level teams for long portions of a season but only portions not overlapping portions right and other portions made you wonder

what the hell is going on here? And Dallas has the more recent portion of looking like a championship level team right now. That is now the Clippers have been kind of a 500 team for 35 games or whatever now, and has made everybody wonder as James Harden scoring slumps, as Kawhi starts this series, I think Lawrence Frank said today, he'll be listed as questionable with knee soreness or knee inflammation or whatever they're calling it. Um,

it feels like a long time ago that the Clippers look like a championship level team. The Dallas Mavericks look like one now. Um, obviously Luka Doncic has lit up the Clippers every which way possible, even though the Clippers have won rounds one and two of this rivalry. Uh, we know how he's going to try to sort of punish Zubats and punish the Clippers. Um,

And we know that the Clippers are going to try to make him work defensively, try to hunt Kyrie Irving down, try to hunt Luka Doncic down. They have great isolation scores. Needless to say, the stakes could not be higher for both of these teams.

Dallas has gone pretty close to all in with the Gafford and P.J. Washington trades. The Clippers, of course, are famously all in going into a new arena next year, have yet to make the finals in the Kawhi PG era. They both escaped Denver until the conference finals in terms of what side of the bracket they're on.

And one of them will be going home in two weeks and is going to feel very unhappy about it. David Thorpe, game one, first possession. What are you looking for? I want to see if the Clippers can have some real disciplined and concerted effort defensively as Luka and Kyrie come downhill. The way I teach guys, and if they're dropping or even helping,

If there's a guy running to the rim that can jump to 12, 13 feet, you have to make the guard finish no matter what. You just can't let the guard know it. You got to fake it. You got to act as if you're going to show. But the lob dunk is just almost always the higher percentage shot. It certainly is the case with Daniel Gafford. The problem with Dallas is Luke and Kyrie are two of the greatest finishers we've ever seen in this game.

But they still don't finish as successfully as the lob to Gafford would be. Luka's also, by the way, the best lob passer in the game, I think.

And yet the Clippers have no choice but to fight to try to prevent that from happening, get those guys coming downhill, and then make them finish and don't give up the easy dunk because they're going to get their points anyway. I looked it up. Luka averaged 34 this year against the Clippers and did not shoot well. Like he's going to score a bunch of points anyway. Try to make him do it inefficiently. You can't let the other guys score efficiently and productively. And I don't know if the Clippers have the collective connected ability

that they need to have defensively to just stay with the plan all the time. Understanding Ty Lue is going to switch that plan up. Whatever they switch it to, they got to execute it from opening tip. And I haven't seen that from LA in a while. When they were rolling, it was their defense that was so good. And for them to have a chance, they've got to find that kind of that zeal to defend again. Well, obviously they have...

All the options that you would ever want to guard a perimeter superstar like Luka. I mean, none of them have really worked, but because there's just no one on one coverage for him. But they actually have preferred Terrence Mann to start on Luka and play a lot of minutes because I think they like to have the other guys as help defenders. For sure. And really, it doesn't matter because Luka can get whatever matchup he wants just by calling for a screen.

I wonder, do you think they would toy with starting Zubats on PJ Washington instead of Gafford to try and keep? Yeah. Do you try and keep Zoo out of the pick and roll or make them use PJ Washington as the screener instead of Gafford? But like the Mavs have seen that movie before. Like there's no movie they haven't seen. And I don't know what kind of matchup tinkering you can do.

You know, you can they'll switch all their perimeter guys on any perimeter screen for Luka. So Kawhi will guard him. PG will guard him. Russell guard him. Norm Powell will guard him. That's not a great matchup. And some of those guys who can just go one on one with. But I just a lot of this series in the past has coalesced around Luka versus Zubats and the lines of defense behind Zubats. And I wonder if they might try from the jump.

to move Zubats out of that or off a gaffer at least, but then you're exposing offensive rebounds and others and other things, but you got to try different things. You can't just keep doing what you're doing. This is what Ty Lue strength is. And they blitz still blitz with Zubats too. Like they'll do everything. Yeah, you have to. I, and Luca has got to be patient. I'm also interested in the other side. I, I'd harden and Paul Jordan, the quiet. Well, quiet has been pretty good. 21 a game. Paul George hasn't been great against Dallas. Harden has not been great.

I don't know why they haven't been so much. They just haven't been sharp.

But this is the Razor's Edge right now. They're on the brink, and you want to see it. And I want to see what Dallas does defensively. Are they going to blitz Harden? They can do aggressive blitzing. They can do more soft blitzing. Are they going to blitz to switch a little bit? I think – I don't know the Jason kids as creative as Ty Lue. Most guys aren't. But you got to try to do different things and keep that big three for the Clippers –

just uncomfortable with what they want to do offensively because i think that's going to bleed into their defense if they're rolling offensively i can see them locking in more defensively but who doubt dallas no no la if la if la is just if they're there three guys are cooking or even just one or two of the guys are cooking i could see them really bringing it defensively better if they're struggling to score um i see that defense falling apart this was

I mean, in the last, in the last, what, eight, seven weeks or so, there were 21st in defensive rating. I mean, the Clippers, there's just no excuse for that. Well, and we, and we talked about it with the Lakers and it's been much worse with the Clippers.

The best thing Luka Doncic has done this season, and hats off to him, his adaptability, he has embraced playing at a faster pace. This team is out of nowhere for a Luka team. A lethal, fast-breaking team. And the Clippers have been abysmally bad getting back on defense. James Harden has been abysmally bad getting back on defense for 15 years. If they don't button it up, they're not going to win this series. Now...

You mentioned Harden and Kawhi and PG cooking. This is the one structural advantage that Clippers have against any team who is very dependent for its offense on defense.

vulnerable defenders is what I'll call Luca and Kyrie because sometimes they're not vulnerable when they dial in. I mean, Kyrie is going to have some size disadvantages against this team in particular is one of those two guys is going to have to guard one of the Clippers big three. It's just a simple math problem that they present every team like this is like Kyrie and Luca who

Whoever ends up being on a particular possession is going to be on Paul George or Harden, or, you know, they'll just run a pick and roll to get those matchups if they want. But if, if Luke is on Kawhi, like you got to go to that, or you got to run a Kawhi Harden pick and roll or a Harden, Harden Kawhi pick and roll to get those guys involved.

And they will do that. And they can't waste possessions. When they have a good matchup, they have Kyrie Irving stuck on Kawhi Leonard. They got to go to that and not waste it. And I think when they're dialed in and they're calculated, they do that. And that's the one kind of baked in advantage they have in this series. They have against a lot of teams is those guys are going to have to guard. And the Clippers, if they're thinking right, are going to make them guard and really try to punish them.

Yeah, one of my notes was they've got to be opportunistic on the break. The Clippers obviously play much slower than what Dallas has been doing, but I think it's a mistake to only walk it up. I think it's a mistake to only play 5-5 against Dallas. Gafford is a solid rim protector. They don't have much else defensively, but they're playing very connected defense collectively. All of them together are not easy to score, and Dallas has been, I think I've got them seventh defensively

and D rating since March 1st. That's, that's really impressive. I thought, and I think you may know this. I thought they won the trade deadline getting Gafford and PJ, but I thought more of the offense. It's really been defense has been such a difference for them. PJ has been, he had a good week in April. I thought, okay, I think you even said on one of your shows, like little PJ Washington. And then let's curb our enthusiasm. It didn't, it didn't take.

But I do think Harden needs to push when there's numbers are there, get the ball ahead. And we haven't even talked about it. You just mentioned at the beginning, none of it matters if Kawhi is not healthy. Like they need Kawhi. And honestly, I picked in my show earlier, I picked Dallas today.

Because when I saw Zion walk out in that tunnel, I just thought, oh man, that's going to be Kawhi at some point, isn't it? And there goes the Clippers' chances. So let's hope that's not the case, but they've got to have Kawhi at full strength to have a chance. Dallas is a very good team.

Yeah, you mentioned P.J. Washington. I think no matter what defenses the Clippers deploy against Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, and like you said, it's going to be a million different ones. Yeah. I think their goal is going to be we got to funnel as many possessions as we can

to PJ Washington shooting threes and Dante XM shooting threes and Josh Green shooting threes or, or attacking closeouts or Derek Jones jr. Shooting threes. Those guys are all capable. They've all been capable now. And then they're all capable of making plays off the dribble. Dante XM shooting over 40% from three, like they're capable. 46 from the corner. It's just, it's just the least of all evil. So like you can't be dunks and it can't be Luca just going off. And you know,

you know, I, there's no great answer to it, but I think that's the closest thing there is to a semi, at least for a third of the game that can be our attempted answer at it. Yeah. I don't, I don't have many other, other thoughts on this other than the Clippers, three guys like James Harden has not been great in the last six weeks and Kawhi Leonard, like they need those three guys to really be humming. My default pick here is,

If I knew Kawhi were healthy, I'd pick the Clippers. Cause I think, I think the Clippers are just really good. And I, I I'm not quite ready to throw the last 30 games in the garbage and flip the proverbial switch, but I think they have some advantages in this series. Um,

Without knowing what – I mean, Kawhi – who knows? Their listing is questionable. I don't believe anything they say about Kawhi Leonard's health. He could come out and dunk 10 times in game one and be like, what? Questionable? But their listing is questionable. I'm going to take it as questionable, and I'm going to pick the Mavericks win game seven –

on the road and close out the Clippers life in crypto.com arena, moving into, into a dome. Don't feel good about it. I think the Mavs are coming in. Maybe a little bit overrated. I don't, you know what? I don't like this pick, but I don't know what else to do. Okay. Cleveland, Orlando rock fight.

Or maybe a rock fight where Orlando, it's all gravy. Like this is all gravy for them. And for Cleveland, it is not quite existential, but it's because they're too young for it to be existential. But it's you better win because you tanked the last game of the season for a matchup like this. Now you tanked it more to avoid other matchups, but you like this matchup. Let's not lie. You like it.

And you have Donovan Mitchell's extension sitting there coming up as drama in the off season. And if you pooped the bed again in the first round of the playoffs against the team, that's one nothing Zippo. It's going to be changed time in Cleveland. Um,

This is going to be just a fun matchup across the board. Two teams who played a lot of big guys, not a lot of shooting for the Magic. Some perimeter shooting, obviously, for the Cavs. Some great matchups. Jalen Suggs on Donovan Mitchell. We don't really even know who the Magic are going to start. They quietly snuck Jonathan Isaac into the starting five in the last game or two of the season at center over Wendell Carter Jr.,

Wouldn't surprise me if they kept that in this series because his minutes have just been that impactful this season. Each team's got some interesting answers for the other. It's a big test of Cleveland's rebounding because this is an elite, elite rebounding team, the magic coming at them. And we saw what the Knicks did to them in the playoffs last year. It's also a team that gets the line a ton. The magic, I think their first and free throw rate for the season. Yeah.

You know, where do you want to start? What's, what's interesting to you? I mean, for, well, first of all, I'm glad you mentioned Isaac. I think I even wrote that, that, that I could see him starting my game too. He's a, he's a better corner shooter than Carter jr. Much better corner shooter. And I said on your show, when I did the most improved thing, he's the best defense player in the world. And the minutes he gets, he didn't deserve the award or anything. He didn't play enough, but yeah,

He's just an incredible defensive player and an athlete in general, and obviously really tall and long and fast and quick. I think Paolo versus Evan Mobley has caught me. I really watched a lot of tape on them.

Neither is as good as what we all want them to be. They're very young guys. I've talked to, I've done both Orlando stuff and Cleveland radio. Like you gotta be more patient with these guys. They're going to be incredible players. Amen. You're speaking. I had this whole rant last, last week, just like,

people are going like, Oh, he's never going to live up to what we expect him to be. Oh, I'm going to include where even teams are like, suddenly this guy's in trade talks and this guy's 21 years old. Right. Yeah. I have coaches telling me, yeah, but you don't understand. He doesn't do this while he doesn't do that. Well, he just, of course he was at, he was playing in the G league two years ago. Like, what do you expect him to do? Yeah. It's in me. It's a, I really, you know, Paolo, basically they're a point guard. Right.

All right. He's such a skilled guy. He doesn't really finish great except for right at the rim. And it's not even great. It's just where he's best. Well, and that's where he is their point guard. And that's one area that we're going to see like,

You know, we're going to see a lot of Paolo inverted pick and rolls with Suggs or whoever for Franz Wagner. They have a great two man action. And Max Struess has been the primary guy on Franz Wagner. They'll try to get that switch. They'll try and bring Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland into the action by having their guys screen for Paolo. And he's become a really good playmaker out of like that's a real weapon for them in this series. Go after the small guys.

I saw Paolo play in person when my son's team played at Duke. My wife and I went, and I was on the court for the game with him. And after the game, he's just huge. And he's such a gifted passer. Like, he's going to be an amazing player. He's just not there now. He and Mobley drive at each other a bunch and probably miss a lot of shots inside. I think if Cleveland played to their potential and Orlando played to their potential, I think Cleveland's a much better team.

They just haven't been that team. Darius Garland's been kind of lost at sea, very up and down. But I think I wrote this down.

26.7 points a game in the three games against Orlando. Number one versus any Eastern team. So he likes playing against Orlando. I don't know how with the defense they have, but he's done great. That would really help Cleveland a ton. We know what Mitchell can do in the playoffs. We also know what happened last year in the playoffs. And he's got the injury. It's a fair question as to what he's going to do. I thought he played really well against Indiana in the second, I think the second last game of the season. That was huge.

I thought now, now Indiana doesn't play physically on defense as Orlando does not even close, but Cleveland really beat them up in the paint. Jared Allen, especially was very, very good in the paint. I I'd like to see them make that same kind of commitment against Orlando. Won't be as easy.

because of how Orlando plays. That's where I think Jonathan Isaac can end up starting is I think he'll answer that situation better than Wendell Carter Jr. will. Wagner's shooting has been a real issue. 32 of 136, I think, since March 1st. 23%, that's a problem. He's a very good player that just isn't shooting well. So that's why I call it a rock fight. If Cleveland defends, and Zach, they've not been defending. They've almost got the same virus that the Clippers caught.

They were an amazing defensive team and suddenly they weren't and they just haven't been for a while. That gives Orlando a chance because they'll find ways to score and transition with steals, with drives and cuts and Paolo creating. If Cleveland can get solidified defensively, it becomes a much easier series. Sam, I don't think they'll do it easily. I think it'll be tough. And I think Cleveland is going to have to get its rotations. JB Bickerstaff is going to have to get his rotations really on point. If you watch the Magic play the Cavs,

When they have Allen and Mobley out there together, now Isaac is a wild card in this because he introduces a ton more answers potentially on defense, more switching, more whatever. But in the past, when Cleveland's had both its bigs on the floor, the Magic have blitzed Donovan Mitchell completely.

And less so, but sometimes Darius Garland and said, hey, we're just going to make you give up the ball. And we're going to make you play four on three underneath. And we have faith that we can cover the space because you have these two big guys that are like running into each other in the paint. We don't have that much space to cover. When you take one of those big guys out and replace them with a shooter, that blitzing gambit gets a lot harder to pull off because those guys have to cover way more space. That's when you might see the magic go with Isaac and switch more.

or sit back more or whatever, but they've got to get the right ratio of double big versus single big. They've got to figure out like, do they need Isaac Okoro in this series? There's not really a great,

perimeter guy for Isaac, a corridor guard, unless you want to put him on Wagner a lot. Um, he's actually guarded been Caro now, Ben Caro now, and then in previous matchups and they've messed around with the matchups, like putting Mobley on Franz Wagner. I think it's for, I think Franz Wagner has to have a big series for Orlando because he's going to have, I mean, Max Bruce isn't a weak defender. Max Bruce is actually a pretty good defender, but given the options Cleveland presents, he's like, maybe somebody you would go at. Um,

It's going to be – this is a fun series and a big one for the Cavs, obviously. Dean Wade would be a big wild card in this series. Not a big wild card, but like a big body who could shoot and defend a little bit better than George Niang would be useful in this series, I think, given what they need. But his status is up in the air as far as I know. Right. Yeah.

I agree with that. I think the Cavs are better. I know all the buzz is about the pressure that they're under. They're under performance last year. They finished the season 13 and 18 in their last 31 games. Donovan Mitchell was hurt for a lot of that. Orlando is surged. I think they're 23 and 12 in their last 35 games. I think the Cavs are a little more talented. Donovan Mitchell looks good. I think Orlando makes it a long series. I will pick Cleveland in seven.

Yeah, I think that's what I did on my newsletter. I think I picked him in seven. If I was Coach Picker's staff, I would show the fourth quarter. March 5th, they're down big. They outscored Boston 34-17, ended Boston's long win streak.

I would just try to say, not necessarily Cleveland basketball, but that's what we're capable of doing. Let's find joy playing that way no matter what happens. But they don't look like they're playing with much joy, Zach, and I think it's evident when you see them. They've got to find some joy. I think there's going to be some major changes in Cleveland. Well, it actually kind of reminds me of picking Phoenix in terms of why I don't feel good about it is because they just have been intermittently so joyless and so disconnected. Yeah.

Yeah. But if they just play the right rotations and find the right spirit, I think they're better. And sometimes offensively, like lean into your split actions a little bit, like give mobile the ball and let him facilitate with Mitchell and Garland screening and running around. They get good stuff out of that. If you know, the magic are going to blitz.

Don't just run a regular old pick and roll, run a screen, the screener play where you like hit the blitzer when he's on his way up. And so he can't even blitz you like you've defanged the blitz before it gets there. Like they have these tools in the toolbox. I I'm also interested in like Wagner, you mentioned his shooting. Bankaro has become an okay. Three point shooter.

I wonder to the degree that Cavs go under screens against those guys and say, go ahead, beat us. Like, see if you can make some jump shots against us and just test them out. It gets a little dangerous against Paolo. He's made some pull-up threes, a lot of pull-up threes. It's just something to watch for. I'll go Cleveland in seven, but great season for the Magic. Because, you know, look, the Magic are going to bring their defense every game. Like, the Cavs are going to have to win this series. Okay, last one. I saved it for last because it's the one –

that has the biggest wild card in it. And there's, it's, it's hard to really sort of analyze a series that could be one series for three games and a different series for four games. And that's Milwaukee, Indiana. And talk about a series where the pressure index is diametrically opposed. Indiana is like, we're young, we're feisty. This whole Halliburton thing is still kind of brand new.

Ben Mathurin, like one of our most important young players, is hurt. He's not even part of this. Jairus Walker, another important young player. Actually, I love the flashes that he's shown in the NBA level. He's not playing much at all. In theory, they have to convince Pascal Siakam to stay after trading three first-round picks for him. Pretty confident Pascal Siakam is probably going to stay. My gut is they've probably –

That idea has been broached some point around the block. Obviously disaster could strike one way or another, but then you have Milwaukee who traded Drew Holiday and some other stuff for Damian Lillard, has an older team around Giannis Attentacumpo that Damian Lillard trade kind of semi-triggered Giannis signing a long-term extension with the team, hired a coach in part, not totally, but in part because Giannis Attentacumpo endorsed the hiring.

decided 30 games of the season they didn't like this coach very much fired that coach had already quietly had doc rivers advising that coach and hired doc rivers the team's been 500 since then um chris middleton's been injured in her admittedly um damian lillard has had his worst season in x years i don't even know how many years i'd have to go back

And Giannis, toward the end of the regular season, suffered a calf strain that is going to keep him out for at least some of this series. At least some of this series. And look, this is a team that lost in the first round last year in epically disastrous. I mean, like epically disastrous fashion. Fired its coach after that epic disaster. Reorganized its team.

And they're facing an Indiana team that presents a lot of matchup problems for them. Went four and one against them in the regular season. I don't think all that was a fluke.

I mean, look, we can joke about the spice of the game ball debate and who sold the game ball from who and whether the game ball actually was over here the whole time. And Tyrese Halliburton doing the Dame time thing. Malik Beasley going on Chris Haynes podcast and saying, I know we're going to play them in a playoff, so it's not going to go well for them. Like there's a lot of juice to this central division rivalry. It's awesome. But the stakes for the Bucs.

I mean, I shouldn't really even need to say this, but like if this is a second straight disaster for the Bucs, you don't think the other 29 teams in the league are wondering, what does that mean for Giannis? I don't know what to say about the series because if they have Giannis, I'm picking the Bucs. As messy as they've been all year, I think there is a really great team in here somewhere.

but I'm picking the Bucs because they just have the best guy and they have a lot of really good guys around that guy in a system that works and four guys that work really well together in Middleton, Dame, Lopez, Giannis. I don't know if they're going to have Giannis. And if they don't have Giannis, you nailed it in your preview. Indiana has sneakily become an okay to decent defensive team. And that's all they need to be with the firepower that they have. I think the Bucs might be in trouble.

I couldn't agree more. I'm not so sure I'd pick the Bucs if Giannis was healthy, although it would be much easier to pick him than it is now because I think there's a chance he didn't play at all. Caps trains, we all, I want to talk about it because we all saw that series with Golden State a couple years ago and we can't help but think about it. This is a bad matchup for Milwaukee, Zach. They love to own the paint at the rim.

Pacers lead the league in paint points, but they don't care to go to the rim all the time. They kill what I call the second box. Tyrese is elite there. Nem hard's elite in the second ball, both of them. And they both are playmaker passers. Siakam pretty much elite in the second box and also willing passer. That's an issue. The speed at which Indiana plays is,

There's one day of rest between game one and two. Of all the series we talked about, I think game one's most important for Milwaukee because it's, Indiana's a terrible record in back-to-backs in part because I think they're exhausted.

but give them a day's rest. They'll be fine. They're in much better shape than Milwaukee. The Pacers are very fit because they play so fast. It was one of the issues Siakam had when he came from Toronto, who didn't play nearly as fast, in fact, even slower than before in many respects. He's in shape now. They fly. Watch them.

After Maids, they are flying. It's not just Tyrese or Namhard pushing. It's Siakam pushing or racing or Miles Turner. Turner and Siakam are getting dunks I've never seen these guys get.

Like Siakam had a big tip dunk the other day, a violent one. Like what? What is going on? He's 30 years old now. Turner monster dunks. Turner is shooting 40% from three since I meet the all-star break. And as soft as I thought they were, he and Pascal both against Cleveland that one game, Turner's kind of turned the corner. He's been more of a bucket getter, more of an aggressive guy, kind of understanding his role. He and Pascal really play well together. The one question mark I have for Indiana is,

Because if this was already answered, I think they win the series. I actually predicted initially to win at five. Halliburton has not been the same player since his hamstring injury. 40% from three before the injury, which I think was like January 8 or so, 32% afterwards. And what that does, Zach, besides the obvious, he's not shooting as well, is he's easier to guard in switches.

Because what he likes to do, in fact, I teach my guards this when I see him in the offseason, we do the Tyrese. We jitterbug forward and backwards and forward and backwards. And he's such a threat to shoot the three going back that the big guy comes up or lifts up and then Tyrese zooms right by him. But when he's not making those shots or the sidestrip three, sidestep to the right three that he used to be great at, he's not making it. So the defensive big isn't lifting as much and they can really bog down when Tyrese is trying to do his dance and it's not working.

I think Milwaukee is going to have to go to some switches. You can't drop coverage. This Pacers team, I wrote that. And so I don't think they will very much because they went four and one against his team. Siakam wasn't there and neither was Doc and buddy was there. And that made a difference. And Doc has gotten the bucks better in fast break defense for sure. And that matters against this team, but it's not enough in the half court without Tyrese really cooking. I think he's had moments. He just hasn't been nearly as effective as,

But he's going home. He's from Wisconsin. He's got a whole week. What a break that was to make sure they were a six seed. By the way, they almost were a two or three seed. Like, next year, that's exactly where they could be if this team just stays intact. So, I don't love the matchup for Milwaukee. We could talk about Dame and Middleton. Both those guys could have been a good series. But without Giannis, they're really overmatched. They need both those guys. I don't know if they're really overmatched. I don't know if I go that far. Without Giannis.

I'm not ready to give Indiana that much status to say they're just overmatched. I don't disagree. Indiana's capable of being really bad, really random, not smart, not clutch. You're not wrong on that. But those two guards, Middleton and Dame, I mean, obviously they need to – if Giannis is out for all or most of the series, and to be clear, we don't know what his status is going to be.

They're going to need to have consistent big games. Both of them have obviously done that and more in the biggest moments. Yep. And more than that, particularly Middleton, they're going to have to make Halliburton work on defense. They're going to have to hunt him down the way we keep talking about all this, what the playoffs come down to a lot. It's like when you get, when you get against really good teams and you just don't have that many answers, sometimes the only answer is like,

Is the Mavs saying, where's James Harden? Let's try and see what we can do against him. And by the way, I didn't mention that, but in that series, another one of the sort of baked in structural advantages I think the Clippers kind of have is they don't really play a small guard that's easy to sort of pick at. Tyrese Halliburton's not small, but he plays kind of small on defense. He's thin. And teams go at him all the time. He's used to it.

Without Giannis, they lose their best vehicle of doing that on both ends of a pick and roll. Have Tyrese's guy set a flat screen for Giannis, whatever.

Chris Middleton's their best means of doing it now because of his kind of old school mid post game. Bobby Portis has been on a heater for like two months. Yeah, he can do it. I kind of feel like they're going to need to grind the game down and make it yucky and grimy and physical and just try to ugly it up and, and gut out as many wins as they can until, and if Giannis comes back, but this is a different team with Siakam. They're just like Siakam, Neesmith and Turner together. Yeah.

Cover a lot of space. Nemhard is feisty and bigger than you think. They have a decent amount of defense around Halliburton now. Their bench is pretty good. I mean, TJ McConnell. I don't know what the hell got into him. Did someone call him and be like, hey, man, because you're allowed to try and score. He went from, like, I don't ever want to shoot to I'm just going to play bully ball against –

like six, 10 guys and knock them out of the way and shoot jumpers. It's crazy. What's happened to him. So on TJ McConnell, who I don't know, I have three of the best young college guards in the country at point guard that all should be in the NBA in one more year. And I'm breaking their, I'm breaking tape down for their coach college coaches right now. We did, I did some today and I've got a few guys are studying. One of them is, one of them is TJ. His paint buckets against seven footers is extraordinary. And I had dinner. No,

not too long ago, about a month and a half ago. He's mean. He's like hitting people. Oh yeah. He's a killer. But I had dinner with an NBA player, a big tall guy who I said, I don't know how he does it. Like he was amazed. Like, how was this guy doing this? He, it's not like he's jumping up. He's, these are jump shots from eight feet, whatever. They have the best bench in the league scoring wise. That'll be changed a little bit. I think they'll probably play the starters more, but Rick's done a good job. Uh,

No one averages more than – I think Tyrese had 32 minutes a game. He's not overplaying his guys. They do play super fast, and I think that's part of why he's trying to save them some. But I'm telling you, they look really fit. And –

Nembhard chases. Nembhard is going to be on your all defensive votes. Maybe he won't necessarily get them. He won't win it because you still got guys like Derek White and Drew and Caruso. But he's going to start getting votes. He's a brilliant defensive player. He's super strong and he's really fast. Neesmith, I think, has problems with Middleton. That's who's probably going to guard. And I think that's going to be an issue. When Chris is playing well, he's tough.

Portis versus Siakam on the other end will be interesting. Pascal is third in the Eastern paint buckets. That won't be so easy against Bobby. He's going to have to come from the perimeter. But let me just read you this. Here's their corner shooters. Because Brooke Lopez doesn't want to guard anyone if he can help it. He wants to stay by the rim. I already said Miles is 40% from three since the All-Star break. Nembhard's 53% in corner three. Siakam, 45.5%. Neesmith, 43.6%. Jalen Smith, 41.7%, top in 40%.

Like they've got a lot of guys that could shoot quarter threes. That's why they're the second best offense. Even though Tyrese has been struggling back and forth since early January, they finished behind Boston's power five and offensive rating the last few months. And I think for the season, they're right there. They can really shoot. That's why I think it's a, it's tough for Milwaukee unless they can generate a ton of scoring. But you mentioned earlier about one of the other teams, uh,

I think Waukee is going to make some of these guys prove it. Like, this is the playoffs now, young fellas. You're going to have to make some open shots. We're going to dare you to make it. I just think they have a good chance to make it. The pace of the game keeps guys from getting too into their head. They just play. And I think that'll help them. Obviously, you're right about Tyrese not being the same guy for the last 25, 30 games. You're right about what that does to his...

Cause you, you can't drop two off. You can't do the same thing against any of these great guys more than 50% of the time, but drop back defenses. He's got all the reads you blitz. It's over. He's just, they're just playing four on three. Yeah. Switching. He he's never been like the blow by guy. He's more been like the, let me, let me get you so worried about my step back three. I get you off balance and then I can beat you. And if you're not so worried about a step back three,

That kind of goes away from him a little bit. You're right about all that. It's just, it's been a bad month for the Bucks on a lot of levels. They just, they just haven't put together a lot of coherent play and by far their best player is now injured with an uncertain return date.

And if he does return, and I know he's been like this incredible healer and all that, if he's going to be a hundred percent, 90%, 80%, and he's been dealing with this issue in did something in this leg, hamstrings, tendonitis, whatever Achilles tendonitis in one game, he was listed as for months now. I just, I, I got to pick the Pacers and yeah,

I guess I'll go Pacers and six because they'll have game six at home. If Giannis were healthy, I'd pick the Bucs. He's not like he's not. And it's not a Kawhi thing where he he might play game one. Like Kawhi might play game one and look amazing. It appears he's not going to play game one. So I'm going with the Pacers. But boy, these are these are all even Cleveland, Orlando, which seems like it's a rock fight. It's the NBA TV series, whatever. Like it's a fun series. There's a lot of play in that series. Good players. There's a lot of talent.

All right, David Thorpe, it's Thursday at 1040 p.m. Go take a respite. Enjoy the play-in games tomorrow because Saturday, it's four playoff games. Sunday, it's four playoff games. We're off and running on a two-month sprint. Your analysis is going to be critical for all of it. David Thorpe, everybody, thank you for the annual 8x8 slash 6x15 first-round preview, sir. Thank you very much. Thank you, Zach. Enjoy the game.

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