cover of episode Should Biden Push for Regime Change in Russia?

Should Biden Push for Regime Change in Russia?

2023/10/3
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David Remnick: 介绍了Stephen Kotkin 的身份和专业领域，并指出他对于乌克兰战争有深入的了解，并就西方国家对乌克兰的援助、战略以及对俄政策的有效性提出了质疑。 Stephen Kotkin: 详细分析了乌克兰战争的现状，指出乌克兰面临人员、弹药短缺等问题，反攻进展缓慢，可能面临类似越战“春节攻势”的局面，这可能对美国总统大选和拜登的政治命运产生影响。他认为，乌克兰在可预见的未来取得胜利的可能性很小，需要谈判达成停火协议，这可能意味着乌克兰需要放弃部分领土，以换取安全保障。他还批评了美国没有将“政权更迭”纳入对俄政策，这是导致乌克兰战争难以结束的关键因素。他建议加大对俄罗斯政权的压力，促使其进行谈判，这可以通过支持俄罗斯内部的反对派等方式实现。他认为，西方国家对乌克兰的军事援助可能难以长期持续，需要重新评估战略，并指出即使是乌克兰最坚定的支持者也面临国内政治压力。最后，他总结了战争中西方国家取得的一些战略性胜利，例如增强了团结和决心，削弱了俄罗斯和中国的国际地位。 Stephen Kotkin: 就乌克兰战争的长期性、西方国家援助的持续性以及可能的政治影响进行了深入分析。他认为，目前的军事策略难以在短期内取得决定性胜利，并对乌克兰可能需要做出领土让步以换取和平的可能性进行了探讨。他还强调了西方国家在对俄政策中缺乏明确的战略目标，特别是在政权更迭问题上的犹豫不决，导致了当前局面的僵持。他认为，只有对普京政权施加更大的政治压力，才能迫使其走向谈判桌。

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Stephen Kotkin discusses the current state of the war in Ukraine, highlighting the challenges faced by Ukraine including depleting resources and high casualty rates.

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Throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine, David Remnick has talked with Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who is deeply informed on U.S.-Russia relations, and a biographer of Stalin. With the Ukrainian counter-offensive proceeding very slowly, Kotkin says that Ukraine is unlikely to “win the peace” on the battlefield; an armistice on Zelensky’s terms—although they may be morally correct—would require the defeat of Russia itself. Realistically, he thinks, Ukraine must come to accept some loss of territory in exchange for security guarantees. And, without heavy political pressure from the U.S., Kotkin tells David Remnick, no amount of military aid would be sufficient. “We took regime change off the table,” Kotkin notes regretfully. “That’s so much bigger than the F-16s or the tanks or the long-range missiles because that’s the variable . . . . When he’s scared that his regime could go down, he’ll cut and run. And if he’s not scared about his regime, he'll do the sanctions busting. He’ll do everything he’s doing because it’s with impunity.”

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