Billionaire Game Theory + We Are Not Ready for A.G.I. + Election Betting Markets Get Weird
2024/11/1
Hard Fork
C
Casey Newton
K
Kevin Roos
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Miles Brundage
科技亿万富翁在选举中扮演着越来越重要的角色，他们的行为和决策对选举结果和信息传播产生深远影响。杰夫·贝佐斯阻止《华盛顿邮报》背书卡玛拉·哈里斯，引发了对其动机和政治立场的广泛猜测，也暴露出科技巨头在政治中的巨大影响力。这种行为可能出于多种考虑，包括对冲政治风险、避免特朗普报复以及应对拜登政府反垄断调查。
此外，科技巨头对选举后信息控制和内容审核将对选举结果产生深远影响。在选举结果存在争议的情况下，他们如何审核和控制信息将直接影响公众的认知和判断。
Miles Brundage 离开 OpenAI 后，公开表示 OpenAI 和社会都尚未为 AGI 做好准备，这引发了人们对 AGI 安全性和社会影响的担忧。他认为，目前行业整体尚未做好准备，需要放慢脚步，制定相应的政策和措施，以应对 AGI 带来的潜在风险和挑战。他建议，政府应该积极介入，制定相应的政策和法规，以确保 AGI 的安全和可持续发展。
选举预测市场Polymarket 的兴起及其预测结果与民调结果的差异，引发了人们对其准确性和潜在操纵风险的担忧。Polymarket 上的预测结果显示特朗普领先，这与传统民调结果存在明显差异，引发了人们对其准确性的质疑。此外，一个法国人在 Polymarket 上下了巨额赌注，也增加了人们对市场操纵的担忧。
总而言之，科技亿万富翁对选举的影响、AGI 的安全性和选举预测市场的准确性，都是值得关注和深入探讨的重要议题。
Deep Dive
Why did Jeff Bezos cancel the Washington Post's plan to endorse Kamala Harris?
Bezos cited concerns about public trust in media and the perception of bias.
Why did Miles Brundage leave OpenAI?
He wanted to focus on cross-cutting industry issues, maintain independence, and address external readiness gaps.
What grade would Miles Brundage give the industry on safely building AI systems?
He thinks the industry is doing good work but acknowledges significant gaps and unresolved safety issues.
What does Miles Brundage suggest individuals do to prepare for AGI?
Try out AI systems, think about career implications, and protect against deep fakes.
Why is Polymarket seeing a surge in popularity during the 2024 election?
It allows uncapped bets and has been promoted by figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
Why do some people believe prediction markets offer better information than polls?
They argue markets aggregate informed bets, potentially providing a more reliable forecast.
What concerns have been raised about Polymarket's election betting?
Large bets by a single individual and potential wash trading have skewed the odds.
Jeff Bezos's decision to halt the Washington Post's endorsement of Kamala Harris raises questions about tech billionaires' influence on the election. Is this a move to protect their business interests in the face of a potential Trump victory, or are there other factors at play?
- Jeff Bezos stopped the Washington Post from endorsing Kamala Harris.
- Bezos cited public distrust in the media and the ineffectiveness of endorsements.
- This decision led to a significant drop in Washington Post subscriptions.
- Alternative theories suggest Bezos is hedging his bets or fears retaliation from Trump.
- Tech billionaires' influence on information access is a key concern in a potentially contested election.
Shownotes Transcript