cover of episode There's a new tariff in town

There's a new tariff in town

2024/11/14
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Greg Ip
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Noelle King
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Noelle King:本期节目讨论了特朗普的关税政策,以及其对美国经济和全球贸易的影响。关税是进口商品的税收,特朗普认为提高关税可以减少贸易逆差,创造就业机会,并迫使其他国家公平对待美国。然而,这一政策也引发了关于成本和公平性的争议,因为更高的价格可能会损害消费者利益,而依赖中国产品生产的社区也可能因此衰败。 Greg Ip:特朗普的关税政策与其前任的自由贸易政策形成鲜明对比。自20世纪40年代以来,美国一直奉行降低关税、促进自由贸易的政策,认为这能提高工人效率、降低消费者成本,并加强与友好国家的经济联系。而特朗普则认为,之前的自由贸易政策更利于其他国家,例如日本、德国和中国,这些国家利用美国的自由贸易政策增加了对美国的贸易顺差。特朗普的目标是扭转这种关系,迫使其他国家更多地从美国购买产品,并促进美国国内消费。 在特朗普的第一任期内,虽然提高了关税,但总增幅相对较小,原因是存在许多豁免,并且特朗普经常选择与其他国家达成新协议以降低关税。最终,贸易体系与特朗普上任前差别不大,贸易逆差甚至有所扩大。 特朗普的第二任期计划更加强硬,他计划对中国进口商品征收更高的关税,并对所有国家征收普遍关税,以期创造更多美国就业岗位。然而,关税也可能导致通货膨胀和利率上升,并引发其他国家的报复性措施。 关税政策的影响不仅仅是减少进口或增加出口,还会改变贸易模式。企业可能会将生产转移到其他国家,而非回流美国,消费者也需要决定是否承担更高的价格或购买其他产品。 Greg Ip: 特朗普的关税政策可能会对全球经济产生重大影响。除了中国,德国和欧洲也需要担心特朗普的关税威胁,因为他们的经济模式高度依赖出口,而美国和中国市场都面临风险。受关税影响的国家可能会采取报复措施,这可能会导致贸易萎缩,并对所有相关国家造成负面影响。然而,也存在另一种可能性,即各国认识到现有贸易体系的不足,并共同努力建立一个新的、更现实的贸易体系,其中关税水平介于之前的高低水平之间,并更关注某些国家(如中国)的不公平贸易行为。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did President-elect Trump propose tariffs as part of his economic plan?

Trump proposed tariffs to address perceived unfair trade practices by countries like China, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and bring back manufacturing jobs lost to overseas production.

How did Trump's first term impact global trade?

Trump's first term saw increased tariffs on a range of Chinese products and some exemptions for traditional allies, leading to minor overall tariff increases and a renegotiation of trade agreements like the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

What are Trump's plans for his second term regarding tariffs?

Trump plans to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports, potentially up to 60%, and apply across-the-board tariffs of 10-20% on all countries, aiming to force countries to buy more U.S. goods and create domestic jobs.

What are the potential global reactions to Trump's tariff plans?

Countries like China, Germany, and Mexico are likely to retaliate with their own tariffs, fearing significant economic losses and reduced exports to the U.S. This could lead to a broader trade war with global economic repercussions.

How might Trump's tariff policies affect U.S. consumers?

U.S. consumers could face higher prices for imported goods like electronics, shoes, and agricultural products, potentially leading to inflation and higher interest rates if tariffs are broadly applied.

What is the broader economic theory behind Trump's tariff strategy?

Trump's strategy is based on the belief that higher tariffs will reduce imports, increase exports, and bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., countering what he sees as unfair trade practices by other countries.

How did businesses respond to Trump's tariffs in his first term?

Businesses responded by moving production from China to other countries like Vietnam and Mexico to avoid tariffs, rather than bringing production back to the U.S., leading to shifts in global trade patterns.

What is the historical context of U.S. trade policy before Trump?

Before Trump, U.S. trade policy was characterized by bipartisan support for free trade agreements and reductions in tariffs, aimed at increasing productivity, consumer choice, and geopolitical alliances through economic bonds.

What are the potential long-term outcomes of Trump's tariff policies?

Long-term outcomes could range from a significant reduction in global trade and economic growth to a renegotiated global trade system with higher tariffs and a more realistic view of countries like China not playing by traditional rules.

Chapters
Trump's plan involves raising tariffs on imports, particularly from China, to reduce trade deficits and bring back manufacturing jobs. This approach contrasts with the bipartisan consensus since the 1940s that more trade is beneficial.
  • Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, increasing costs for consumers.
  • Trump believes other countries take advantage of the U.S. through unfair trade practices.
  • Past U.S. policies focused on lowering tariffs and fostering free trade agreements.

Shownotes Transcript

Trump’s tariffs could remake world trade. The Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip explains the president-elect’s plan and how the world is preparing.

This episode was produced by Amanda Lewellyn and Haleema Shah, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King.

Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast)

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President-elect Donald Trump and China's president Xi Jinping outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2017. Photo by Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

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