cover of episode How Trump could steal the election

How Trump could steal the election

2024/10/29
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Kyle Cheney:如果特朗普输掉选举,他很可能会再次挑战选举结果,这基于他对选举舞弊的指控以及他过去的行为模式。他可能会采取一系列步骤,包括在选举之夜质疑结果,试图干预县和州选举委员会的认证过程,施压州议员任命不同的选举人,最终将争议提交给国会。如果共和党控制国会,并且众议院议长质疑2022年通过的联邦法律的合宪性,那么特朗普的计划可能会成功,选举可能会进入众议院,这将有利于共和党。然而,民主党控制国会以及2022年通过的《选举人票改革法案》等保障措施,降低了特朗普成功窃取选举的可能性。哈里斯团队也为应对各种情况做好了准备。尽管如此,考虑到特朗普面临的刑事指控以及他过去的行为,仍然有必要认真对待这种可能性。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why does Kyle Cheney believe Donald Trump might challenge the election results if he loses?

Trump has repeatedly claimed massive cheating by Democrats, conditioning supporters to believe any loss is due to fraud.

Why didn't Politico write a similar piece about Kamala Harris?

If Trump wins, he's the winner. Legal challenges and protests are expected, but not a plan to overturn results.

What is the first step in Trump's potential plan to challenge the election results?

Conditioning people to distrust election results by spreading claims of voter fraud and illegal voting.

What is the significance of December 11th in the election process?

It's the safe harbor deadline when states must send certified results to the federal government for their electors to be counted.

What happened with the fake electors after the 2020 election?

They were charged with crimes for signing false documents, and Mike Pence refused to recognize them.

What safeguards have been put in place since the 2020 election?

The Electoral Count Reform Act was passed, affirming the vice president's role as administrative and hardening deadlines for state certification.

How is the Harris campaign preparing for potential election challenges?

They have teams of lawyers ready for contingencies but focus on winning the election first.

Why is it important to consider the long-shot scenario of Trump stealing the election?

It's a reminder of the extremism and threats seen in 2020, and Trump's potential motivation to reverse a loss due to facing multiple criminal cases.

Chapters
Kyle Cheney of Politico discusses the potential scenarios where Trump could attempt to overturn a Harris victory, starting with conditioning the public to distrust election results and continuing through various stages of legal and political challenges.
  • Trump is conditioning his supporters to believe that any loss is due to cheating.
  • Election night could see Trump declaring victory or casting doubt on the results.
  • State and county boards may face pressure not to certify results.

Shownotes Transcript

Donald Trump doesn't want to let losing the election stop him from taking the White House. Politico's Kyle Cheney details the Trump plan to overturn a Harris win and explains what it would take to stop that from happening.

This episode was produced by Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Andrea Kristinsdottir, and hosted by Noel King.

Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast)

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A sign next to a gas station in Worthington, Pennsylvania. Photo by Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post via Getty Images.

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