Lincoln Project Election Day Special
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Hey folks, you are tired of the countdown and it's now over. It's election day 2024. This episode was recorded on Friday afternoon. So if,

Things have radically changed. A meteor has hit the earth. If Donald Trump's walked around naked, maybe the election will be a little different. But here we are. It is election day, 2024, November 5th. Get your ass out and vote. This is a special edition of the Lincoln Project podcast, and you're going to enjoy it. We have two groups of people today. You're going to hear from me, Jeff Timmer, our COO and campaign manager, Trigvy Olson,

political director, data genius, and of course, the great, the powerful Stuart Stevens. We're going to have some fun with the adults in the room. We're also going to introduce you to three young people

who are absolutely brilliant. They are Andrew Wilson, who, yes, is my son and is super brilliant. Even with me in the woodpile, he came out super brilliant. Philip Germain, who has been with the Lincoln Project from the get-go, and Mary Slawinski. These are three of the smartest young folks in politics, and I can't wait for you to meet them. They deserve so much credit for the good work the Lincoln Project is able to deliver because the Lincoln Democracy Institute is able to put this work

complicated, big math, big data project together. So folks with that, this is the last Lincoln project podcast of the election season. After this, it's the Lincoln project podcast of whatever comes next folks.

One more time, get out and vote. For the love of God, do not be the person who wakes up in the morning and says, what? Trump won my state by 5,000 votes and you weren't the one that got out and voted, okay? Don't make that mistake. We need you out there. Anyway, let's get going. Your task will not be an easy one. Your enemy is well-trained, well-equipped, and battle-hardened. There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. United States of America.

Good night and good luck. Hey, everybody. It's Rick Wilson. Welcome back. I am your host, as always, for the Lincoln Project Podcast, and I am delighted to be joined by three of the smartest young people that I know wandering around on this planet right now. One, my son, Andrew Wilson at the Lincoln Democracy Institute, Philip Germain, and Mary Slowinski. The three of these folks are the brain trust behind the amazing models that Lincoln Democracy Institute has built to

to map and understand the American electorate and to help us at the Lincoln project target our media, our communications, our advertising, our strategy. They have built the machine that runs underneath all of this under the leadership of Trigby Olson and Aaron Dobson, the

The LDI has built something really fascinating. It is a model of the American electorate that has given us a unique insight into it. And I want to welcome all three of you to the show. You know, a lot of the folks at the Lincoln Project

rely on you guys to give us a sanity check on things. And all of you have been pretty steady about the outcome of the election so far. So we're recording this, folks, on Friday afternoon, but we're going to release it on election day. So we're all rolling the dice. So let's go through each of you. Andrew, you go first. Talk to me about how you think the election's going right now. What do you think we're looking at today on election day?

I'd rather be us than them, if you want to put it in so few words. We have to look at the early vote responsibly, so we can't really glean too much from that. But we are seeing positive indications, especially in places like Pennsylvania, that Democrats are holding up well in the early vote. So we're excited. I think we're hopeful.

I mean, I think, you know, I'd rather be us than them is really the anthem, right? We know this is a toss-up race. We know it's within the margin of error in multiple battleground states. But, you know, we're seeing these late deciders, you know, these folks that are still undecided but starting to get an idea of who they want to vote for, breaking for Vice President Harris quite overwhelmingly.

I should say that, you know, figures range from 10 upwards of 24 percent going in her direction for these later voters. And as Andrew referred to, we see the early vote.

In states like the Blue Wall, you know, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, where Democrats are strong, you know, can always be better, right, but strong. And the Blue Wall, I think, as of this morning in Pennsylvania was approaching 400,000 votes. We're even seeing Democrats eating into the early vote share of Nevada Republicans. So, you know, there's some good indicators all around the country. Yeah.

I echo what Phil and Andrew are saying. I personally am very excited to get to Tuesday night because with this very close election, there are a lot of outcomes. And although we won't know Tuesday, the path will narrow. So we'll have a little bit more to work with. I'm excited to see what ghost voters show up for Harris, particularly women in Michigan. I think she has a high ceiling. I agree. I'd rather be us than them. And there's a lot that can happen these next few days.

At the end here, we've seen Donald Trump call for Liz Cheney to be executed. And we've seen everything in the last week pretty much go off the rails for Trump. We've seen the Puerto Rican gaffe. We've seen, you know, the garbage truck stunt. We've seen him flailing really badly across the board. As a rule in campaigns, you want to close with an optimistic message. You want to close up, as they say.

Talk to us a little bit about when voters start paying attention, because political nerds like us, we've been paying attention for three years. Most voters, though, are much later in the game. Phil, talk to us about when voters start paying attention and why that's important, given what's been happening in the last week.

Yeah. I mean, this is exactly what we're seeing with undecideds and late breakers, right? These folks who are tuning in, you know, late September, mid-October. I mean, hell, I still have friends texting me going, yeah, what's going on exactly? And I'm like, oh, brother, I've been on this campaign for four years. It feels like, but, you know, it feels like it never ended from 2020 for us, right? But

Yeah, I mean, if you're tuning in now, we've been joking about Chris LaCivita, you know, trying to run this campaign. And in this final week, he's been thrown off the bowl completely. Like Trump's just out of sorts saying everything that comes to mind. So for a lot of these late breakers, right, they're being introduced to Trump again, and

In the sense of the Madison Square Garden rally, you know, what Tony Hinchcliffe said, you know, we're seeing the comments about Cheney, the political violence, the enemy within. This is what they're tuning into. And I think that's why we're seeing Kamala doing so well with these voters. Yeah. Yeah. Mary, talk to me a little bit about the model that you guys have helped to build recently.

on how we look at these voters, how we talk to these voters. Talk to us a little bit about what the model does and why it's unique in the public polling space. What we've really been trying to do at LDI is capture voters

snapshots of sentiment over time. So what's great about our models, we're not only checking the horse race, checking where people are living, we're also looking at what issues matter to them, what their personality traits might look like, what their dynamics with their family might look like. And what we've seen from that is a lot of people are still deciding. It's hard to believe, but a lot of people are ready to go in on election day of our abandoned line voters and

are still deciding which ballot to cast. So things like the recent comment of Liz Cheney are not helping Trump. He's not ending on a good note with our band and line voters because consistently what they show within our surveys, within focus groups, is they care about democracy, they care about reproductive justice, and they care about any conversation around and respect for our military. So...

He is not ending well with our band in line voters for sure. Andrew, tell people what the band in line is if they haven't heard about it yet. I like to describe the band in line as an unrealized center right constituency of a gone away Republican Party. It's somewhere between 8 to 11 percent of Republicans who are.

are more closely aligned with the Bush and Reagan years. They care about character. They care about, you know, they think Trump is corrupt, incompetent. They don't like January 6th. They hate the way he talks about the military. They see him as corrupt.

Generally, the force that is dividing us. So Bannon line voters, they may split their tickets, for example. They might, like we saw in 22, they voted for Ron Johnson, but also voted for Tony Evers. It could be something we see this time.

much more prevalently, Bannon line voters splitting their tickets, voting for Kamala at the top of the ballot and voting for Republicans down ballot. So the three, you know, the big buckets of the Bannon line for us this year, those classic Bannon line voters. And then we have the Dobbs dads, the abortion. They look a lot like Republicans on every other axis, but they are really upset about Roe v. Wade being overturned about the way Trump has handled it. And you finally have

Those Red Dawn conservatives who are the pro-defense, again, they look like conservatives and look like Republicans in every other matrix except they're just not into Donald. But I'm also starting to see in the public polling, and I'm curious how much you guys would share with us about what we're seeing about how some establishment-type Republicans are starting to show up in –

this non-Trump vote? In terms of establishment Republicans, I think you could see significantly more of them split off this time and it all comes down to character. They can't stand Donald Trump anymore. They are so, so sick of

what he displays on a daily basis. I mean, Phil referenced the Madison Square Garden rally. I think that was detrimental to his campaign. The people he has on stage with him don't align with their values. They don't understand why he would be on stage with somebody like Tony Hinchcliffe or even Hulk Hogan. They don't get the Republican Party today as it is.

Right. And I think you can trace a lot of that back to January 6th. It flipped a switch in a lot of these establishment Republicans to say, what the hell is this party anymore? What are we what are we fighting for? What are we based on? Are we a Trump party or are we a common sense small government party? Are we a fiscal responsibility party or are we going to be?

Are we going to hand Trump all the levers of power? So I think that that will I think the Lincoln Project work has been really important here in that we have actually peeled these voters off of Trump. I think we can expect to see somewhere in the realm of eight to 11 percent of them break away from the Republican Party as it is today. Just to piggyback, we're seeing it as well in the comments from his staff.

We're seeing the comments from Mark Milley, we're seeing them from John Kelly, and more figures that have been quiet coming forward and making statements and coming out. So when you look and think of elections kind of as this black and white, Democrat or Republican, I think the reason so many traditional strategies have failed this year and why more unique ones digging into the ideological breaks are working is

Because like we're approaching this as an ideological election is how much of the swallows can we move in a direction, you know, not just always the Republican voter.

Is this a democratic voters? What kind of Republican are you? Right. Like that's been, I think such a unique thing that, that we've broken out. I think the Harris campaign has also done a great job at bringing those surrogates, Republican surrogates into the fold and into the conversation. That's definitely something our voters are picking up on the way they've been able to bring speakers along on the trail with them, the way the DNC was set up. And we had a lot of Republican friends speaking with us, um,

I think they've done a really great job of messaging and being really specific about if there is... If you do not like the way your party is shaped up right now, there is a space for you in this campaign. And I think that's worked wonders. I think another thing we really, really should talk about is these split households. These husbands who are voting for Trump and the wives who are maybe...

discreetly voting for Harris. We have seen in our data that the spouse's opinion is one of the most important things for deciding someone's vote. But it may be that

a lot of these households are going to divide their votes and that wives will sort of neutralize a lot of these male Trump voters, especially the Gen X, slightly older millennial male voters. And the Lincoln Project has been working extremely hard on this particular project. This has eaten up a lot of your guys' time, I know, in the last few weeks and months because it is something that if they can't win

If they can't win a majority...

If the Republican women's vote ticks down even a couple notches for them, they are in big trouble. We also see in our data, we asked who among your family and friends might disagree or agree with you the most on policy. And when you filter out Republicans, you see that daughters and sisters are the people that Republicans say are most likely to disagree with them on policy. So I expect to see a ton of these split households. Right. Right.

Right. Even even from the, you know, putting on my old hat as an organizer, it did not, you know, multiple times I'd go knock doors and I'd have the name of the wife and I'd be there to speak to the wife. And a Republican husband answers the door and says very clearly, we're voting Republican.

And it's like, great. I understand you are. I'm here to talk to your wife. And that's the unfortunate thing you have seen in a real world situation. We also see too, through surveys, focus groups, a lot of women

in these key states are not aware of how much impact their vote may actually have. So I think it's really important to keep pushing that message because we talk about the importance of democracy. We want people to have a buy-in and to feel like their vote really matters. And when they go into the voting booth, when they are taking that leap of, you know, making a choice different from conversations with people close to them, that it is going to have a real impact.

I want to run through the early states and get your opinions on our top four. So I want to start with the hardest one, I think, to model right now, which is, of course, Pennsylvania.

I think she's going to win Pennsylvania by about two points. I know I may be jinxing it, but talk to me about where you guys see Pennsylvania as of Friday afternoon at one o'clock. I think that there's a lot of reasons to be confident for the Harris campaign. Like Phil said earlier, we are nearing that 400K firewall. I think it's 6,000 votes away as of maybe an hour ago. That said, the –

Republicans – excuse me. MAGA in this election is going to – this is a zero-sum game for them. They will play as hard as possible and Pennsylvania will be the main target. If Trump sees that his path has narrowed to this state, it will be a volatile situation to say the least. Yeah.

I do think that there is something intangible with enthusiasm as well. I think we're seeing Democrats leading the enthusiasm gap by 10%. You know, that's insane to see in the final stretch, right? She's packing stadiums. She's packing rallies. I mean, the one in D.C., I know it's not a swing state. It's not even a state, unfortunately. But, you know, D.C., 75,000 people almost show up. That's crazy.

And the amount of shifts, you know, on the doors is really making a difference. But, you know, also to echo some of the concerns, these counties are pure toss-up counties, right? And we understand, too, that Trump –

I think very much his freedom, he feels, is on the line in this election. And the MAGA movement is on life support if he fails, if not collapses. So that's why we're seeing such a focus from the right wing on social media. That's why we're seeing all of these unverified reports coming out of Pennsylvania. It's why they're trying to cast so much doubt on that state. And

Not to put the cart before the horse here, but that's why we've spent the last couple of weeks digging into what's the certification process in Pennsylvania. Is there a deadline? When do they have to certify? What is the Secretary of State's power during the election? How can they make sure things go smoothly on election day? Are you concerned, as these folks get very desperate here in the closing act,

about them engaging in violence in the in the over the weekend that's coming up or on election day? I think it's around 70% of our respondents fear what will happen on election day that there will be some form of violence. It's definitely not something to underestimate. There's a lot of with what comes with enthusiasm also comes a lot of fear. And

And I think Andrew can speak a little bit more specific to that, but it's definitely something to look out for. It is true that MAGA is both threatening and intimidating and willing at this point to commit acts of violence to get their way. They feel that if they lose this election, it is...

existential crisis. They feel that the stakes are so high. I mean, we know the stakes are high, right? But on this side of the aisle, I think it gets as extreme as the pro-Palestinian protesters, right? Like, it doesn't get to be pipe bombs and trash cans and beating up postal workers. But that's what MAGA might do. There is a...

justification in the minds of some of these folks that violence is acceptable because they feel like their entire way of life is about to disappear if they don't win. I think that's right. And Trump has been steadily taking up the violent language, the violent rhetoric and the encouragement of this kind of violence. The way he frames Democrats is scum. He says that they're scum, they're inhuman. And that when anyone in this country, when you view someone as inhuman, you're

they are a much easier target for violence. Well, it is certainly something I think we've got to keep the closest of eyes on on Election Day. And I'm very hopeful and I hope that Governor Shapiro in particular recognizes and acts upon some of the risk factors that are present in Pennsylvania with some of these local protests

elections offices and elections boards don't have a set of procedures, from what I understand, that is wired in to handle crises that could emerge from violence and from disruption. Andrew, you've done some research on that. Phil, you have too. Where do you see that problem right now? It's up to interpretation. The counties are given quite a bit of power to interpret the state elections law code

And that goes for Election Day procedures. You know, we've seen reports already with, you know, some issues with early voting in person, specifically in the time that certain polling places can stay open until. So.

I'm hoping, as you said, right, that Shapiro meets the moment here and that the Secretary of State does as well. But there is some concern. And I think it's rooted in the fact that Pennsylvania does not have a firm deadline to certify. One of my concerns is that the lawfare element of Trump world and Tara Palmieri in Puck last night reported on this. You know, she said.

They're starting to give up on winning the election and they're starting to think about how they win the lawfare segment of the election. I don't think Trump thinks he can win. I think that they have been laying the groundwork for the lawfare you're describing for years. And in some ways, we are lucky that –

Trump didn't decide to sit one election out and go another two cycles and let all these crazies into these election boards and even down ballot. So the lawfare is something we should watch out for. And the last thing I'll say about the violence aspect is for anyone out there, if you see something, say something. Call the police. Yes. Turn on your camera and call the cops.

We're seeing the payoff of our 2022 strategy pretty much in real time. Talk to me about that, Phil. Explain to people what the Lincoln Project did in 2022 because we knew even then it would be Trump. Yeah. I mean, it's –

Insane to say, like the things that, you know, you and Stuart and the Lincoln Project as a whole said in 22 about Trump being the eventual nominee and needing to prepare for that. And, you know, what we did in the general and primary was look at secretary of state races, attorney general's races were applicable, gubernatorial races. And we played heavily. I think one of the biggest races was Arizona.

We had this election denier, Mark Fincham, running to be secretary of state. And we had Adrian Fontes running. And we made sure to plant a flag in Arizona. Same thing in Wisconsin. Same thing in Michigan. Pennsylvania, the governor's power is two points. So playing heavily in the Pennsylvania governor's race. Nevada, where all these election deniers are running.

And, you know, right now, as you mentioned, the reporting is lawfare winning by lawfare. Can you imagine if it was with Secretary of State Mark Fincham or if it, you know, is with Governor Tony Michaels in Wisconsin? You know, there's...

It could have been a very different and far more dangerous environment had we not won those races. And that plan, as far back as the spring of 22, we were thinking, I'm sorry, the winter or, yeah, I'd say the early part of the year in 22, we started talking about just how dangerous it would be if you had election deniers in these offices. And sure enough-

We look back now and recognize just how vital that decision was. And some of the people that are in those offices today are going to be on the front lines in a couple of days. They're going to face some very, very ugly moments as these MAGA election deniers try to win.

manipulate this race. Mostly though, we're going to have to deal with people that are in state legislative bodies, correct? I mean, we're not, we're it's our secretary of state's posture in our swing states is not, is not terrible. It's mostly going to be these, these idiots in, in the, uh, in the, in the, um, in the legislative bodies that think that they've got some sort of ability to, to play fuck around. Yeah. And you've seen that in,

West Virginia, of all places. There's the West Virginia legislature that's put forward a resolution where they can just deny the results officially as a state. And, you know, I don't know how they plan on working that all out, but they've pretty much described the conditions of the Trump candidacy. And then they've said, oh, and on top of that,

If he loses, then we're just not going to accept the national election results. And it's very much giving election of 1860. It feels, you know, those same states, right, that caused, wreaked havoc, started a civil war. We're now looking at the South and Trump allied states that are willing to take us into a constitutional crisis if they need to.

Yeah, it really is. It really is deeply concerning. And unfortunately, as you guys have said, we're seeing that a willingness to accept that in our numbers. And that that to me is a sort of red alert that I'm very happy that you guys were able to sort of build this model and and work through how we're going to to profile a lot of this stuff as we went forward. So, all right. Who's voted early in the room? I know Andrew has.

All right. All right. I'll tell you, there was a big line at my precinct. I love that. You know what? I think, you know, and I'm looking at it since we share a precinct. I think you look at that in some ways as a really good sign because, you know, it's a swingy area. It's a swingy district. The swing part of the – a pretty blue area, but definitely a swing area.

Not to say the Florida Republicans haven't tried to gerrymander our representatives out of existence. Yeah, it is. If you want to look at the model, folks, of what the future looks like for the Democrats if we don't win, it's Florida. You will have a government that is absolutely –

shockingly authoritarian at this late stage in our history. I mean, shockingly authoritarian. And you don't want that outcome, believe you me. And Ron DeSantis is currently right now spending $30 or $40 million of taxpayer money to overcome Amendment 4, the abortion initiative that's on the state ballot. And it's crazy how much he's getting away with

Because it's a one-party state with a supermajority. That's the future you want to really, really try to avoid going forward. But all right. I want to just end on an optimistic note. I think we're all in agreement she's going to win? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That's it, folks. Game's over. Still go out and vote. But the Lincoln Project and Lincoln Democracy Institute have declared it, so we're done.

I'm kidding, everybody. I'm kidding. Careful. Yeah, I'm not going to jinx it, guys. No, but look, I am. Once again, I want to say this. I'm absolutely delighted to have you guys on today. You deserve more recognition than you've gotten.

And you've been an absolutely vital part, all three of you, working with this LDI data and building out a strategy and a program that is going to be absolutely vital on Tuesday when this thing happens. So thanks, guys. It's great. You're all dismissed for the rest of the hour. And now then get back to work. Thank you. Thanks, guys.

You may not realize it, but every minute of every day, you're enjoying the most important freedom. The freedom that's brought to you by the First Amendment. You can speak your mind, vote how you choose, wear what you want, get your opinions out there for free, even if it's unpopular. You can put a sign on your front lawn that says, vote for Bigfoot, someone you can believe in. You can pray to the God of your choice or don't.

You have the right to be with the people that think like you do. You have the right to tell the government what you think about its policies, whether you love them or hate them. They are freedoms that let you be you, and they're all brought to you by the First Amendment. Learn more at freedomforum.org. This recording is being put in the can on Saturday morning, and given that things have been so crazy, we could have any number of new incidents between now and Tuesday, but

As of this moment, I'm talking to three of those brilliant minds in American politics, Trigby Olson, Lincoln Project's senior advisor and the mastermind behind our political operation and our data and analytics, Stuart Stevens, the legendary, the mastermind, a guy who has more experience than any of us combined.

who has a deeper understanding of American politics than almost anyone I know. And of course, Jeff Timmer, our campaign manager, the chief operating officer of the LinkedIn Project, the man who makes all the moving parts move together as one expert on the northern tier blue wall states. I am honored, gentlemen, to have you here for this last roundup before the votes are cast and the die of America's future are cast. So I want to start out

Do a round robin here and find out as of Saturday morning or Saturday afternoon at 12, 11 p.m. East Coast time. What do you think the state of the race is? I'll start with you, Trey. Well, I'm going to be a little biased to Wisconsin because, as you guys know, I've spent the last six days here. So I've been a little down in the weeds doing statewide radio and touring the state. I will say I feel pretty good about where Wisconsin is. I think Harris is on a trajectory.

to probably win by more than the 20,000 votes that for the last six have been determined by. Um, there's a lot of energy and you're seeing that in the polls here. Um,

I think the Senate race is probably tighter. There's going to probably be some Harris-Hubby voters. It's a question of how many. But Wisconsin looks – I think Wisconsin looks really good, really good. Look, I think she's going to win by about the same margin that Obama won in 2012, like 3.9. I particularly am watching North Carolina because it will probably come in pretty early and pretty clean. Yep.

If she wins North Carolina, I think it's over. And she'll end up winning the race not because she won North Carolina. It'll just mean that a bunch of other states are in the bubble like we talked about before. If she loses close, she's the most likely scenario. I don't think it means anything. If she gets crushed, it's a really bad sign. So I think it'll be kind of like an early litmus test. But I think...

she should win by a larger margin than Biden did. Yeah, I would agree with that analysis. I'm fairly bullish on what's going to happen on Tuesday and in the aftermath as everything is counted. Looking at Pennsylvania, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, it just really looks like as I dig down into the

the minutia of the numbers that everything points toward a Harris win in all three of those states. But as Stuart indicates, we might have the results from North Carolina before we have the results for those. And it's almost impossible to fathom

that Harris will win North Carolina and lose any of those three blue wall states. So when Trump loses North Carolina and he's going to have to run about, oh,

12, 15 points ahead of Mark Robinson in order to win the state. That's something that is going to be somewhat of an undertow for him. When he loses North Carolina, that's an indication that he's going to lose the rest of the states that come in that night, or most of them. And I wouldn't even be surprised to see something unexpected like we saw in 2008, where

Obama wins a random state like Indiana, not saying that that Harris is going to win Indiana. But if she were to happen to win Florida after disparaging the Puerto Ricans and Haitians who live there after Trump has, I wouldn't be surprised at this point. I mean, you could tell me sitting there what's going to happen, but it could turn into the kind of night where the bottom kind of drops out of Trump's support.

I think we've all seen the Trump campaign falling apart in front of us since Madison Square Garden.

I mean, it was falling apart before that, but that precipitated, I think, a pretty hard collapse. It's getting harder for him to get a crowd in the room. I mean, Jeff, you said last night of Trump's rally in Michigan, you've had more people in your kitchen. It was sad. So talk to me, guys, about where you see the campaign's collapse coming in. Jeff, we'll start with you. Madison Square Garden is a great kickoff to the final week. It was kind of like Trump's

moment as he headed into the close of the campaign. And it landed with an absolute thud when it came to what they were hoping to get out of it. You know, they sent all the bad optics that went along with the comparisons to the 1939 Boone rally held at Madison Square Garden, complete with the xenophobic rhetoric that

The so-called comedian went out there and did more damage to Trump's campaign. Hard to believe saying that that Trump has managed to do himself. That's where the Trump campaign began when he ends up losing on Tuesday, that that was the beginning of the end to put that exclamation point on his loss. Just as I think Harris's speech Tuesday night at the Ellipse was an absolutely brilliant statement.

campaign optic and rhetorical win for her

that she's able to draw that juxtaposition between Trump on January 6th, 2021, and her standing there on the night in late October saying, let's go take back our country from that spot on the ellipse where Trump said, let's go tear our country down. All right. So, Stuart, you know, when you go into a rally like they went into the other night, you

and you set yourself up for offending Puerto Ricans, making jokes about blacks carving watermelons, making jokes about Jews won't part with their money. It's a side of a campaign that really is trying to feed only a tiny fraction of its base at this point. Talk to me about where you see the Trump messaging in the last few days. As you like to say, and I think it's a really good phrase, Trump's not getting any new customers.

Yeah, you know, I think this was a fascinating week because you saw more than any week I can remember in a presidential campaign, two campaigns operating at entirely different levels. And one of the striking things, I think, about the Madison Square Garden rally, besides the freak show that it was, that when this guy went out and said this stuff about Puerto Rico and Latinos, nobody rushed into Donald Trump's holding room and said, look, you have to go out and denounce this as soon as your own stage. And

Maybe they did. Maybe he refused, but it didn't happen. And then it's just, you know, everybody talks about how did this joke get in there? But the fact that once it was in there, nobody thought to denounce it. I think it's just, you know, a sign of complete dysfunction, as opposed to when Harris had this great rally down in Houston, Reproductive Rights Rally, and then this incredible rally in Ellipse. They're just operating at a really high level.

So you think about it, what was Donald Trump saying? You know, for a couple of days he was saying he wasn't a Nazi. Not particularly effective. Now he's, you know, out there in these garbage trucks with this. I mean, it looks ridiculous. So I think they are inside of this bubble. They don't have a sense of how to expand their message. And, you know, again,

You should go back to that moment in the convention when they had to prepare checks for Trump. That clearly was what they thought needed to be said to win the election. And this is what he ended up saying. So, you know, I don't have any sympathy for these people inside the Trump campaign, but I think that it must be kind of maddening that you sit there knowing what to do. You tell him what to do and he does the opposite or whatever the hell he wants to do. Right, right, right.

Trigby, so where do you see this? I mean, talk to me about what – if you were in Chris LaCivita's brain more than you already are or Susie Wiles' brain, what would you be trying to do in this last weekend? To scare the players.

In this last weekend of real craziness and real intensity, because I have the sense that there are too many competing factions and camps inside Trump world now for anybody to be really in control. And that's another side of the campaign that isn't working.

The truth of the matter is, and I think this is something that isn't being talked about enough and you don't really see it till you get on the ground. They're getting their asses kicked in the blocking and tackling of politics, like door knocking, like the Democrats are all over it. They've got more energy. I had a friend from college who I didn't.

you know, I'm not that close with who reached out to me and said, hey, I know you're in politics. You know, I went and knocked on doors today for Harris and Baldwin. And later in the day, a Trump person came up my driveway and realized that I was backing Harris. And my husband and I were standing there talking to him. He was from Florida. And he admitted to us he wasn't even going to vote for Trump. And

and said that there was nobody in the neighborhood. He said the neighborhood was supposed to be prime territory, which it should be. No one was supporting Trump in the neighborhood. This is upper middle class. I just think Chris and Susie realize where this is headed. And Chris and Susie have a lot of other business to protect.

you know, public affairs work, corporate work and other stuff. They're not going to want to take the blame for Madison Square Garden. And they're already positioning themselves on it. They're not going to want to take the blame for Elon. And Elon Musk isn't probably either. He's getting ripped off to the tune of $100 million. Like, Susie and Chris aren't going to want to take the blame for that. And they probably won't want to take the blame with Elon either. So, yeah.

You know a campaign is losing when they're explaining events at Madison Square Garden. But when you get to the weekend before an election and you have the two main people

In the in the campaign defending themselves in the Atlantic, you have them going to North Carolina four times rather than to Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. You have them skipping the Ohio State Penn State football game or the Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers game where where the Harris campaign is all over that with the Democrats.

Those are not good signs for where your campaign is at. They're really bad signs for where you think it is, regardless of what you're saying publicly. So, Jeff, you have been a guy who knows the operational workings of campaigns very, very well. The logistical interior of it, the strategic, matching the strategic objectives up. When you see Trump

Going to Virginia, New Mexico and backing and filling in North Carolina when these blue wall states are clearly where the fight is, because, you know, as we all know, if she wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, he has to run the board and hope for miracles. That's not going to work. So talk to me about like how this how how how disconnected from strategic reality they are in this last weekend. Yeah.

Sure. The one resource that everybody has an equal amount of is time and how you use that time matters in a campaign because you can't get it back. There's a finite amount. Your candidate can only be in so many places. And the fact that they're squandering any of that time in time.

I don't know whether they think they're doing a head fake or what on earth they think they're doing, whether it's Trump Chela in California or Madison Square Garden or going to Salem, Virginia today or going to Albuquerque, New Mexico this week. Those are days that they can never get back. Those are critical touchdowns.

in these states that that make a difference with the enthusiasm in those areas and i think that's why uh you're we're seeing kind of these dwindling crowds with with the trump rallies uh the enthusiasm is just dropping off the charts and they're trying to recreate that uh and and uh

If I'm the Harris campaign, I'm looking at this as a gift. I'm not suddenly thinking, boy, what should we be seeing in New Mexico that we're not seeing? So, Stuart, a lot of Trump folks this year were speculating that he was going to blow the doors off with Hispanic men, African-American men, African-Americans broadly, because they didn't feel connected to Joe Biden. They didn't feel like this was going to happen. At the end of the day,

Given the racial character of Trump's base, given the racial character of his messaging, where do you see that coming out at the end of this election? Yeah, I think Trump's going to get tainted the most. And if I had to bet, I would take Trump.

Take 10 and give the points. And on Hispanics, you know, it's going to be way under what Bush got in 04. 36%, maybe 35. But, you know, that starts getting to be a very squirrely number because Hispanics are self-identifying. You know, we found out on the campaign, he lost Hispanics, but he won Hispanics who spoke English at home. So, look, I think this is Trump's coalition with 85% white and 20%

I think at the end of the day, it's going to be close to the same. Interesting. I think that's right. I do think a lot of this was head faking on the Trump campaign's part where they were trying to try to scare at first the Biden campaign, the Harris campaign into some sort of panic mode on African-American voters. But I think at the end of the day,

You know, we're going to see I think it's going to revert back to the mean. I really do. I don't think there's going to be a major play here. So I want to talk to you guys about our good friend. Rick, can I point out one thing that isn't going to revert back to the me college educated women in the suburbs?

That is not going to revert back to the mean truth of the matter. And in college educated, quite frankly, college educated white guys in the suburbs, too. And and the truth of the matter is, so, for example, in the Marquette poll, which is a gold standard here in Wisconsin, just came out. Harris is running about four percent higher amongst college educated white men in the state of Wisconsin than Biden did last time. That's a huge deal.

And Trump might be doing incrementally better. And this is something we'll have to watch when the first wave, you know, when the exit polls first come out, they're going to they won't pump out, you know, the ballot, but they're going to pump out what the electorate looks like. He needs a sausage fest to happen today of non-college educated white guys, dudes showing up who are in their 20s and 30s. And they're the least reliable voters ever.

On the planet, whereas here they got other things to do. Go drink beer, go to work, chase girls like they got stuff going on. And and and to be honest, like you look at and Harris's events, whether they're in Philly or in Detroit or Milwaukee in the last couple of days versus Trump.

She's packing them. And I don't get the sense, you know, to Stuart's point that there's fall off in the African-American community. In fact, I think there's energy. Yeah, I think that's right. And I and I think some of the things that we're seeing here at the last is is voters started paying attention as they and, you know,

People who are very online and very into politics, as we are probably four of the most into this sort of world that you could get to –

A lot of people are just normal folks, and they didn't tune in until the last two weeks. And what they've seen is chaos and craziness. And a lot of African-American voters who tuned in, and a lot of those college-educated voters who tuned in, saw the egregious racial horror show from Madison Square Garden. They saw who Trump's base is. They see that they're – and I think this is an undercounted thing. And I talked to an African-American leader the other day who said –

One of the things that pissed people off in the African-American community last week from Madison Square Garden, and he said, he goes, you white bros aren't getting this. He goes, they said she had pimp handlers.

A major Trump donor and a major Trump supporter stood on that floor and said she had pimp handlers deeply, deeply insulting to African-American women, profoundly insulting. And he said to me, he goes, you, you, you, you're not, you may, you guys may not pick this up. He goes, no harm, no foul. It's just a cultural thing because that line, that line got out there, that line got out there and pissed people off. And I think, you know, the, the, the broader question, I want to move to the next question that I have.

What kind of party is left if the Republican Party has lost college-educated white men, and a meaningful fraction of them, and college-educated white women? So you start running out of humans. 60% of the country up until 2000, all through the 80s and 90s, 60% of the electorate was non-college-educated white people. That's now 39%, probably less so since we've been talking. It's the fastest declining large demographic in America.

So sort of like in a position of losing five bucks on every sale, but trying to make it up in volume. You know, you can't get there. And I think that a lot of this has to do with the panic within the Republican Party. We talk about becoming a minority majority country, which we are. But if you're 16 years and younger, majority are nonwhite. Right. Which I think is an astounding statistic. Right.

So, you know, the party has faced these choices of either having to come up with another way to get people who were not white, more at the lower end of the economic structure, to vote for them, or to go the way of trying to curate their vote. And tragically, they've gone the way to curate their vote. I think at the root of all this is a real policy failure for Republicans.

You remember, Rick, we were doing campaigns back in the day and it was decided that black voters weren't voting for Republicans because we just didn't know how to talk to them. The problem wasn't that blacks didn't understand. The problem was they did understand exactly what we were saying. And we didn't have anything to say. It was a failure. I remember we had like a title with zones or something, opportunity. But it never was enough. And-

That, I think, ultimately is sort of part of the complete collapse of American conservatism now. What is it? That's right. So I just go back to your point, Rick, that Payne is the only teacher and that I think Donald Trump will be a candidate for president if he loses in February 25. And the party's going to have to continue to lose for a while before it

does what it takes to change. And I'm not sure what that would be. The Republicans are going to be in a position where the what's what's left of the party is older, whiter, angrier, meaner, more afraid of the future. They're going to have some significant diversity, though. There's going to be Germans and Irish and Dutch and a whole lot of other white people. And and after after

a decade of losing, they're going to have the same guy at the head of the party. That's going to be the reality when this election is over, is Trump will have led the Republicans to yet another defeat, defeat in the House, defeat across the nation in state houses and races for the legislature. And quite possibly, they're about to squander the opportunity that was just there for the Republicans to pick up the U.S. Senate. And it looks like increasingly like Jon Tester may be

the, the new Harry Reed. God bless John Chester, man. Yeah. Where he's never ahead until election day. Hell of a thing. That will be an epic, epic win if he pulls it off. Yeah.

Yeah. And but what you'll get is the Republicans, you know, looking doing an autopsy like they did again back in 2012 and saying, yes, we need more MAGA. We need more Trump. We need more, more, more, more, more. Because the pain hasn't taught them anything since 2018 when they've lost and lost and lost and lost. Yeah.

I would just add to that, you know, we've done a ton of research at the Lincoln Democracy Institute on the electorate as a whole, and particularly the right side of the electorate. And I think it's when we look forward, if we go beyond the fact that there may be elements in the Trump world that want to have civil war amongst all of us, the more likely scenario is they're going to have civil war within.

A big part of what we need to do in the aftermath of this thing is we want them to all be fighting amongst themselves. Better they have a civil war with each other than try and have a civil war with all of us.

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There is a fear out there, and I think it's a legitimate fear, about just how bad the 76 days after the election are going to be. In this period between election and certification, what should Americans be doing

And thinking about because I think the fear of another January 6th, the fear of Election Day violence, the fear of violence in order to keep Trump in and the contention, the fear of the desire to use violence to scare people between Election Day and Certification Day on January 6th.

That, to me, is something that, as a democracy, it's a shame and an embarrassment we should be thinking about it as. But, Jeff, what do you think we should be watching for in the 76-day window, and how should people be punching back on it?

Yeah, I think we'll know within the first 24 hours the answer to that question. And the reason we'll know is the only way that I think that is going to be available for the Trump campaign to have any Hail Mary shot at winning in the courts or winning through a contingent election in the U.S. House, what they couldn't actually win at the ballot box, is to disrupt the

the certification in whether it's Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Maricopa County, and that's by breaching the counting centers in places like Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Phoenix.

where they can legitimately claim then that you can't count ballots, that the chain of custody of ballots has been compromised. If they've done that anywhere or multiple anywheres, we'll know. The goal of that would be to say, look, we—

We can't count Detroit. This mob got in here. We can't count Detroit. We can't certify Michigan. Right. We have to go. We have to either the Supreme Court has to weigh in or we have to go to a contingent election in the U.S. House because we don't have enough. Nobody's sitting at 270.

Michigan and Wisconsin aren't certified because of Detroit and Milwaukee. So we'll know real quickly if they're going to have any legitimate path to stealing this election. If something happened in Michigan, is there state law that governs what would happen? No, there's...

If votes, if say the, it would be a,

as if the seal was taken off a ballot box or a voting machine. Right. You know, if they were unable to, is there processing 175,000 absentee ballots in Detroit, they're doing it at that, what used to be Cobol Hall back in the old days. It's gone a bunch of different names, but there was some very iconic images from 2020 with the Republican mob standing outside and banging on the window. Right.

What I'm envisioning about is them getting in the doors this time. And it's not going to be necessarily the official. There's not going to be a proclamation from the RNC or the Trump campaign or the Michigan Republican Party saying, grab the pitchforks and torches and storm the Cobo Hall. What it's going to be is through 4chan, 8chan, it's going to be Oath Keepers Proud Boys who...

strap on their meal team six uniforms and go in and try to play Patriot. And that's what we're going to get these terror cell actions that could then feed into then the rest of the mob storming the doors and

That's the kind of chaos I fear. And that's the kind of thing that I think if they've been planning for a loss out there, that they're going to be like Chevy Chase in Christmas Vacation where he says, you know what I want is my boss standing right here in front of me wrapped in a bow so I can tell him what a blah, blah, blah, blah motherfucker he is. And they're going to put out, Trump's going to say something like that.

is what I wish true patriots would go take matters into their own hands, essentially, stand back and stand by. And that's what we have to fear. I actually think that tonight we need to watch

To Stuart's point earlier, what happens in North Carolina? If North Carolina is close, that's good for Harris. That's bad for Trump. If he wins quickly and North Carolina gets called quickly, we need to be really out of guard that Donald Trump stands up at around 1030 tonight and says, I'm winning in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

They're going to try and steal it from me in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee. You need to patriots need to go stop the count. If we see that happening, we should have sirens going off. Mikhail Khodorkovsky was the richest man in Russia. There was a lot of hope in America and elsewhere that Putin would take Russia to democracy. But when he put Khodorkovsky in jail and stole all his money, democracy was dead because Putin can't give up power in Russia.

And Russia after that, because you would have to face the consequences of those actions. That's the Otterkovsky line. And Donald Trump may have crossed it before, but certainly on January 6th and with documents and all the rest, he has crossed it. His options really are are bad if he does not take power. And we have to assume that he will do whatever it takes, say whatever it takes to try and do that.

And that's going to be a real question on Joe Biden and our process and our institutions. Are they going to stand up to that if that's the route he goes? Yeah. Yeah. Stuart? Look, I think that the period between the election and the 20th could be the most volatile period since the Civil War.

You know, we throw in there some point, a couple of weeks, three weeks after the election, he gets sentenced. Is it 26th or something? Yeah, November. I believe it is 26th. Yeah. So who knows what's going to happen there? But you can imagine if he's sentenced to prison time, what that reaction would be like. You know, I mean, I think that the whole freak show that occurred after the election was –

had a certain comic opera quality to it. Rudy Giuliani with his hair done melting. Sidney Powell, who later her defense in, uh,

Her trial was that no one could take me seriously, what I was saying. That was her legal defense. And it was all sort of conducted in, look, this is bad. It's ludicrous. It hurts America. But it's going to end and really, you know, so what? You can't say that after January 6th.

They've had four years to get ready, four years to be organized. They've had four years of being indoctrinated that they live in an occupied country, which then gives you not only the arguably the right to do whatever you need to do to correct it, but to some people an obligation. And that's just a very, very dangerous mix. Yeah.

You know, we talk about civil war in those situations. I always like to bet on the side that is nuclear weapons. But I don't think that the scenario that Americans would just shudder at National Guard called out and it would be just a terrible time for the country. I don't know, Rick, if you even saw the DOJ says that they're sending monitors into like 80 some cities around the country.

including not just the battleground states, but places in Florida. And I saw that Ron DeSantis went out and said, DOJ inspectors will not be allowed inside Florida polling sites. And so there's-

that they may use their DeSantis election police to try to block or arrest federal observers. Yeah, we've seen this before when George Wallace was standing in front of the University of Alabama doors. Correct. And so, you know, we can't, we can't,

We can't discount the opportunity for politicians and spotlight here, no matter how crazy it might sound to us that he's trying to replicate George Wallace or the governor of Arkansas. Trump will declare victory regardless tonight. He's going to say he won. It doesn't matter if she's got 400 plus electoral college votes. He's going to say that he won. And it really is going to come down, I think, to the state governors, the

And, you know, Brian Kemp was pretty, pretty heroic in 2020. I don't know that it'd be the same thing. But in a lot of these states where the Lincoln Project, folks, and the people on this podcast right now, folks, should take a lot of credit for the strategy that Jeff and Trigg developed in 2020 that we were going to go after really key races in these 2022, excuse me,

key races in these swing states where we were going to make sure they didn't have a Mark Fincham as Secretary of State in Arizona who told us he would preemptively declare Trump the winner, that we didn't have in places like Michigan and Wisconsin governors who would be stuck with partisan secretaries of state

on the Republican side who would be able to do the same kind of thing. That is an investment we made in 2020 that we put a lot of resources in. We won 17 races out of 22 that we targeted. And it's made a big difference this year. It makes me sleep a lot better. When I get out to talk to average people, and listeners should know this, the amount of appreciation that there is for the Lincoln Project—

amongst average rank and file people. I mean, I was with a group last night of about 15, 20 prominent people in Green Bay who had just gotten back from knocking on doors. They came out because they're fans of the Lincoln Project. And it was so moving because we are the majority in this country. And in the places where we've engaged, they understand that

that the Lincoln Project and all the people who listen to this podcast and people who engage have made a difference because those, the thing you have to understand about those suburban guys and women in Wisconsin that are breaking more towards Harris than they did for Biden, we have literally had a nonstop communication with them in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona since 2020, really.

And that is starting to pay dividends. You know, it's funny. I've been hearing from a lot of Republicans in the last two weeks, three weeks of people I hadn't talked to in four or five years, people who, who, you know, are still doing the, you know, public fuck those guys, but privately they're like, well, you have a cast to vote for her. Don't tell anybody, my God, we've got to get this over with that sense of, of

from Republicans who now have permission and Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and these folks that kicked down that door. I think there was a they really catalyzed a lot of our old friends to get it. By the end of tonight, a third of the Republican Party is going to be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Yes. And we have to precipitate a fight between that third and the MAGA third. Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely.

Well, guys, it is... We'll take a nap on Wednesday. Yeah. We'll take a nap on Wednesday and then get about that fight. Yeah. It is one of those inevitabilities that as much as... As much fun as we've had in the last five years doing this every single minute, every single day, unfortunately, Trumpism is still going to be wandering around the countryside like a zombie for a while. We're going to have to take some steps to make sure that that threat is mitigated a little bit going forward. But, guys...

This has been really a luxury because normally we're like having 14 second conversations. We got to do the thing about the thing. And then we all have to run again or hurry Zoom calls. So it's been a great luxury to have a long conversation with you guys. Folks, if you are listening to this on election day, put your earbuds in and go vote.

Put your earbuds in, bring water, a couple of protein bars, and go vote. It's super important. I can't express enough how close this race is still in some key states and key places. It's got to get done. We've got to make this happen. Let's get to work. Go vote.

And hopefully by the time you guys have listened to this on Tuesday, we will have some very, very good news for this country. Folks, this has been the Lincoln Project Podcast. Delighted to be joined today by Stuart Stevens, Trigby Olson, and Jeff Timmer. We will see you again next time. The Lincoln Project Podcast is a Lincoln Project production. Executive produced by Whitney Hayes, Ben Howe, and Joseph Warner-Chammy. Produced and edited by Whitney Hayes and Jeff Taylor. And good luck.

Hey, everybody, if you would like to get in touch, if you have suggestions for a guest or a show topic or just general questions, our email is podcast at Lincoln Project. That's podcast at Lincoln Project dot US.