Lincoln Project Election Day Special
The Lincoln Project
Deep Dive
Why is the enthusiasm gap important in the 2024 election?
The enthusiasm gap shows that Democrats are more energized, leading to higher turnout and more shifts on the doors, which can make a significant difference in close races.
How has the Lincoln Project's strategy in 2022 impacted the 2024 election?
The Lincoln Project's 2022 strategy focused on key races, such as secretary of state and gubernatorial races, to prevent election deniers from gaining power, which has created a safer environment for the 2024 election.
What are the concerns about potential violence on election day?
There is a 70% fear among respondents of violence on election day, as MAGA supporters may commit acts of violence due to an existential crisis if they lose the election.
How does the Lincoln Democracy Institute model the American electorate?
The model captures snapshots of voter sentiment over time, looking at issues that matter to them, personality traits, family dynamics, and other factors to understand and target voters effectively.
What are the key demographics that the Harris campaign is focusing on?
The Harris campaign is focusing on college-educated women in the suburbs, college-educated white men, and African-American voters, particularly women in Michigan.
What is the significance of the early vote in key states like Pennsylvania?
The early vote in Pennsylvania shows Democrats holding up well, nearing a 400K firewall, which is a positive indicator for the Harris campaign.
How does the Trump campaign's messaging in the final days differ from the Harris campaign's?
The Trump campaign's messaging is chaotic and offensive, targeting a narrow base, while the Harris campaign operates at a high level with optimistic and inclusive messaging.
What are the potential risks of lawfare in the 2024 election?
Lawfare involves disrupting the certification process in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to claim ballots can't be counted, potentially leading to a contingent election in the U.S. House.
How has the Lincoln Project's engagement with voters impacted the 2024 election?
The Lincoln Project's continuous engagement with voters in key states since 2020 has built a strong communication network, leading to more suburban voters breaking towards Harris.
What is the significance of the split households in the 2024 election?
Split households, where husbands vote for Trump and wives vote for Harris, are crucial as the spouse's opinion is a major factor in deciding votes, potentially neutralizing male Trump voters.
- Harris expected to win Pennsylvania by about two points.
- Democrats leading in early vote in key states like Pennsylvania.
- Concerns about potential violence and disruption on election day.
Shownotes Transcript