Starts of the Week + Week 11 Breakdown, Over the Bottom! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/14
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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. It's football time. It's defense time. I mean, it's a 48 point over under, Mike. I know. It could work out. Oh, yeah, it should. You just seem so...

You know, it's like it's predetermined. You just think it's going to be sad. I mean, that's kind of how we speak about things on this show. No, I know. We're predetermining what's going to happen. So you're pretty sure it'll be a defensive battle? I think the defenses are very, very good. Okay. No Lattimore. We did find that out. We thought maybe he'd be back out there or out there for the first time for Washington. Yoo-hoo! If...

It ends up not being a defensive battle, and it's just points galore. Then, hey, you're welcome, everybody. Right, you talked it out of existing. I jinxed it. If it happens, it's because I said it was going to happen. If it doesn't happen, it's because I jinxed it. Okay. Win, win, win. What do you call that, Mike? The main character? Main character syndrome? Yeah. Welcome into the Fantasy Football. Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway. Deucer's Alley.

Full house. Full house. Everybody. For now. Everybody there right this moment. Papa Josh, the Falcon, Al Borland over there. We've got starts of the week today. We've got the fantasy forecast. We've got the parlay partay. One of us. He's a clown. It's me. And so we got some. I think we're on our way to Triple Crown this week, by the way. I do too. I've never thought that before.

I know I'm on the way to a crown, so. You can check out the Ultimate Dashboard bonus weekly episodes of the show, the community over at jointhefoot.com. Let's jump right into the news. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. ♪

Well, Bryan Robinson Jr. will be part of that defensive battle tonight. Removed from the injury report. We'll play. Practiced in full, which is a great sign. Again, very tough Eagles defense. I've seen a lot of questions. I've had people DMing like, oh man, do I play Bryan Robinson Jr.?

I'm a little bit hesitant. He's been awesome this year, a touchdown machine when he's active, but I am hesitant with how good Eckler's been, coming off of a hamstring issue, missing the last two games, tough matchup. It might just be a little bit more of a split. I think if you don't get the touchdown tonight, you'll be disappointed in Brian Robinson. It's not to say you need to bench him.

But if I'm close, a tiebreaker for me, I would go elsewhere, even though he's on Thursday night. Aaron Jones limited in practice. DK Metcalf practiced in full. Let's go. Najee Harris didn't practice on Wednesday. Does that concern you after him leaving early at all? It's...

It would be a little bit more extra concern. If Najee is going to take a Wednesday off normally, I don't care. But because he was hurt in the game, you got to pay attention. T. Higgins, limited. Oh, well, okay. Is that good? Yeah. All right. For T. Higgins, that's fantastic. I saw a report come out that they don't expect T. Higgins to be on the team next year. So breaking news.

Okay. I mean, they could have moved him at the deadline. They didn't. Could have gotten something for him, but they are still in it. So, the Bengals. George Kittle did not practice on Wednesday. Hamstring. Hopefully, he's going to be okay. He has just been so dominant. I don't think enough credit has been given to George Kittle's season so far. We've talked up how good Brock Bowers has been as a rookie sensation, but...

Kittle's just, he's gone somehow a little bit under the radar for how good he's been. I feel like we've given him tons of credit. Really? Mike, I think we've given him credit. I think we have, but what Jason is saying is just that he's dominating. He is absolutely crushing for... He doesn't have one bad week. The whole year, he doesn't even have an average week. He's just dominating the entire season every single week. You see it changing?

I do not see it changing, no. The hamstring would do that, but otherwise. Yeah, I mean, he's played through a lot of injuries. I think that Christian McCaffrey makes this offense better. Ayuk being gone. I mean, we have enough data on Kittle being dominant when either Ayuk or Debo are outside. I think it just continues. So some context. He is currently averaging 14.9 points.

Half point PPR or half point points per game. Not half point PPR. That's way too many things. But he's at 14.9. Last year's number one tight end on the year was Sam Laporte at 11.5. Exactly. That's what I'm saying. He is a difference maker right now. He's scoring a ton of touchdowns. Yeah. He's on pace for 15. He's already at the second –

highest touchdown total of his career. The Bills, despite being favored, they are missing Dalton Kincaid. Didn't practice on Wednesday. Amari Cooper limited. Keon Coleman already ruled out. So, monitor, you know, I was really hoping that Kincaid

Could have been a bye-a-week feeling for me this week. And instead he got hurt, and he's just had a disappointing year. He has. And Isaiah Pacheco unlikely to play this week. I think that game is going to be a real disappointment. I mean, I hope I'm wrong. You know, the Buffalo Chiefs, I mean, that's a game-of-the-week type of matchup. I can't wait to see it. But I'm just saying for fantasy, I think it'll be a disappointment. The defenses are both playing well. Offense is still banged up. Yeah.

So the news about Pacheco being unlikely to play, like it's more of the fact that we are asking the questions, hey, is Pacheco going to play this week? So we've been mentioning that he seems like he's going to be back shortly. So if he's on the waiver wire, I would be scooping him up. That was today's News & Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance.

Starts of the week. Now, Mike, you said that starts of the week this week, it was a little bit more difficult for you to kind of hone in on a player. Absolutely. Because with the starts, you know, sometimes we do the, well, this is a great player. And I'm saying, I think that he could be number one on the list.

on the week. Or we're looking at middle-tier players who have great matchups that we're trying to say, this is a player we're giving you confidence that the opportunity is right there for that player. This week is just weird. With all the bye weeks and what the matchups are, it's difficult to find players

Those lower mid options where you're like, oh man, I think he's in a great spot this week. It's just a weird week overall for matchups. Who did you settle on for quarterback? I'm going with my stream of the week. I'm going with Russell Wilson. He gets to play the Baltimore Ravens, which that's a great matchup. It's whatever QB is playing against them. And Russ is...

playing well. If you're not paying attention to the Steelers, Russell Wilson is playing well. It's funny to dunk on him because he's such a weirdo. He's Mr. Unlimited. Unlimited. Got the dangerous sandwiches, all of those things, but he's been a top 10 QB in two of three weeks. The yards per attempt, it is where we need it. It's got the big potential, and it's just the Ravens. They're a pass funnel, 31st in schedule adjusted points to the quarterback. Yeah.

Unlimited diarrhea. Unlimited. I mean, look, a guy who's sharing that type of content, he's a weird guy. But I am. I'll be honest. This morning, I'm making my DraftKings lineup for tomorrow's episode, and I'm staring down Russell Wilson there. It's like, man, he's a good value. But then I'm like, but the problem with that is that I'm relying on Russell Wilson. Yeah.

I get it. I'm going with Justin Herbert on Sunday night football against Cincinnati. I love that. The passing attack for the Chargers, it's trickled up and up over the last few weeks, getting Quentin Johnston back. And the truth is you know that Cincinnati can score. I mean, this game has been bet up to the second highest total of the week, and Cincinnati is 28th in schedule adjusted fantasy points overall.

to the quarterback position. So I think Herbert is a really good start, and it's rare that we've been able to say that. I've actually thought a lot about this Chargers team with Harbaugh and what the weapons that they have, their defense has been very good. This team feels like

They are two superstars away from a Super Bowl. That's the way it feels to me. Like if they had, you know, you think about how San Francisco has just been so disciplined on both sides of the ball. They have a Bosa on one side. They've got a Debo on the other, a CMC. It just feels like the Chargers are missing that one. They got a Bosa. They do have a Bosa. They do have a Bosa, but they're missing that one special offensive weapon because I think Herbert is a Super Bowl winning quarterback.

I just feel like they're missing that. You know, they're missing their chase, their Jefferson, their CMC, their Jameer Gibbs, whatever it is, you know? Yeah. Maybe it's, it's Ashton Gianni. Um,

We'll see. Yeah, no, I like that play. I came into the dock to make that my start of the week. I love the matchup. But since he was taken, I went with C.J. Stroud, who has been a massive disappointment so far on the season. They're in Dallas. Don't worry. I know it's usually a controlled environment except for that sun, but it's Monday night football. Oh. So the sun should be. Wait, where's the moon going to be? Yeah. I'll tell you who knows where the moon is right now.

Jerry Jones. Oh, he knows. You can tell where the moon is a year in advance. The moon man. But, you know, he hasn't been a quarterback once since week four. However, he hasn't had Nico Collins since that time, and this is really about Nico Collins, who is currently, I believe, our consensus wide receiver five on the week. Like, there's no doubt.

If you've got him, you're playing him. His splits through two years without Nico Collins are so telling. 19 games with Nico, he's averaging 21 fantasy points a game, six games without, he's down to 16 fantasy points per game. And if you look at Dallas' defense, it's really falling apart. I know they've got Micah Parsons back, it's a home game. Hopefully that just means that their offense can kind of keep up with the Texans a little bit, which might be difficult.

But they are 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points, 31st in explosive pass rates since week six. So I like C.J. Stroud. I think I would be happy to start him this week. All right. At the running back position, I have Kareem Hunt. I'm with Jason that the Buffalo Chiefs game could be

Just an all-out brawl here on who can score the most points where it might be tough. But Kareem Hunt is one of the guys who I actually feel really, really confident in. And we got one more week at least of him. Since he's taken over in week five, he ranks number one in touches per game. It's so wild. They have just fully trusted him. Yeah, they've turned everything over to him. And then talking about the matchup,

The Bills, 31st in schedule adjusted points to running back, 31st in explosive rush rate allowed, 30th in adjusted yards before contact. This is a team you can run on, and Kareem Hunt, like I said, over 24 touches a game. It's such a good spot. Well, his former running mate, Nick Chubb, is who I'm going with at running back. It was a hesitant selection this week, but I'm trying to find somebody that's not just –

that auto start and facing New Orleans. The fact he got a bye week after three games at 14, 18 and 16 opportunities. He's, he's due for a return to form type of game. And you're playing the saints who allow the six most rushing yards per game. I think the way you win this ball game is, is that balance not giving the ball to James too much. This is a good matchup for Nick Chubb. So I think you can start him.

with RB1 upside. Would you start him over Brian Robinson tonight? Yeah, I would. I think that with Robinson coming back, the workload could be somewhat down and Philly being so good. I would do that. It's the first week that

that I have any type of confidence playing him. Yeah, at running back, I'm going with Josh Jacobs against Chicago. Very, very similar to your Kareem Hunt pick, which I love. You're facing a defense that is very good at shutting down quarterbacks and wide receivers. Where you beat them is in the running game. That's the leakiest part of the Chicago defense is the running game. They're 22nd in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, 29th in yards per carry allowed at 4.8, and you've got the fifth most defensively

yards per game in the NFL with Josh Jacobs. So I think Josh Jacobs, who's averaging 20 opportunities a game, is going to be needed to beat Chicago. He's been looking good. We're just waiting on more touchdowns. He's actually been...

pretty, pretty darn good on a per-touch basis. And if a touchdown comes this week in Chicago, it should be good. The Packers, I mean, you know, coming off the bye, I expect them to look really good. At wide receiver, we talked about him on the Difference Makers show on Tuesday. It's Juwan Jennings, 11 targets last week. When he's on the field,

Brock Purdy just goes to him at 26% targets per route run, 2.84 yards per route run. This is elite stuff, averaging 71 receiving yards per game. The matchup is great. I think this is kind of the last...

Time before the weekend, if you want to try and get Jawan Jennings, who I really do believe is a strong flex play for the remainder of the season, you're going to have to do it now because, well, I mean, trade deadlines are coming up for sure, but it's like, I'm going to wait one more game. I think the price is going to go up if you wait.

Well, I'm going to take the shot at the number one overall player of the week or at least the top five guy, George Pickens. George Pickens, no team's given up more fantasy points to the wide receiver position than Baltimore over the last five weeks. This is a divisional battle. I think it'll be a back-and-forth affair. Both of these defenses are good, but they're not –

going to shut you out type of defenses. I mean, we saw some of the battles that the Steelers defense had with Denver this year. And I just think this is a very exciting, fun game. Pickens is always a big play away from a big game, but now you've got this matchup that makes it really, really easy. Baltimore just, they're dead last in like every metric against wide receivers. The matchup's good.

The trajectory for Pickens is great. The addition of Mike Williams only helps. I like Pickens this week. Pickens is why I'm willing to start Russ. I know the matchup is there for Russ, but if you didn't have a player like Pickens, it would feel far sketchier. But I think that George is just...

he's about to take off. Yeah, and it's not every week that you know that Pittsburgh's going to have to throw a lot, but Baltimore's going to score. So, again, I think that connection should be good. For wide receiver start of the week, I'm taking Andy's undertaker, my guy, back from the dead, Calvin Ridley, versus Minnesota. I like that. Yeah, since DeAndre Hopkins was traded.

34% team target market share. 44% of the team's receiving yards.

Both marks are number one in the NFL over that span. And Minnesota, hard to run on, easy to throw on. They are seeing the second highest opponent pass rate for that reason at 66%. They rank 28th at schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. So the matchup is there. The targets are there. Everything is lining up at home for Calvin Ridley to be good against Minnesota. And the tight end starts. These are where it's...

tough to find someone where you're like, oh man, I'll put on the underpants. I feel good about it. But it's just, it's Tucker Kraft from the Green Bay Packers. Gets the matchup against Chicago. The tight end is the position that you can beat them should you be throwing. And he's just, he's been a touchdown machine. Jordan Love likes to get his touchdowns through the air. And look,

He actually, talking about Tucker Kraft, he only trails Brock Bowers in terms of yak this season at the tight end position. So it's a good player. Yeah. He's probably in a good spot to score another touchdown. Yeah, you're looking for that spot start option this week. And so I want to give you some confidence that you can throw out Jonu Smith this week. If you've got Kate Otten on by, Trey McBride on by,

Uh, Johnny Smith plays Las Vegas 29th against tight ends over the last five weeks. Um, sorry, since week five, Johnny Smith, six targets, five receptions, 52 receiving yards a game. He even got it done last week was a, uh, about an inch from a touchdown on a big play. Very good after the catch. And, um,

You know, you got word that now Hunter Henry's banged up and how much confidence do you have in Jake Ferguson with Cooper Rush? And, you know, like all of these peripheral backup options are feeling a little bit worse right now, along with the bye weeks. So I think John is a play.

And for me, this week is Hockey-lease, Hockey-lease. TJ Hawkinson at Tennessee. Well, yeah, I mean, why would you not be? Last week, nine targets, eight for 72 on just 46% of snaps. He was targeted on 32% of his routes run.

And over the last three weeks, you look at the Titans' defense, they've seen 25-plus percent of their opponents' targets going to the tight end position. You had Sam Laporta with his 6-for-41-1 game against them. You had Hunter Henry go 7-for-56. Even Will Disley caught five balls last week against the Titans. So you've got a guy that's getting more and more involved, very necessary to the offense, and the matchup that is good. He's...

are tight in six right now on the week. I'd start them ahead of guys like Evan Ingram, Kyle Pitts, Sam Laporta. I think it's a good matchup and he's a good player. I'm just curious. Have you been able to move him yet in League of Record? I have a couple trade offers sitting there waiting for me to hit accept or not. They just need a little value boost. I'm not giving him away. He's really good. All right. We will go ahead and take a quick break and then we'll jump into the forecast.

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Want to shop Walmart Black Friday deals first? Walmart Plus members get early access to our hottest deals. Join now and get 50% off a one-year annual membership. Shop Black Friday deals first with Walmart Plus. See terms at walmartplus.com. Okay, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Giants, Panthers on by this week. We'll kick it off with a Packers team that's 6-3 traveling into Chicago, who's 4-5. ♪♪

It's time for Fantasy Forecast, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. Good work, producers. Never done that before. I'm sure you have. No, I have a lot. So, yeah, the Packers and the Bears.

DraftKings Sportsbook line, Green Bay minus 5.5. Over under just 40 points. It gives Chicago just 17.5. No more Shane Waldron, but the problems are not going to be fixed overnight with Chicago's offense. Taking a ton of sacks. Kind of a disinterested DJ Moore. An over-the-hill Keenan Allen and an inconsistent Roma Dunze. The...

shameful lack of usage of Cole commit who seemed to unlock the offense for three weeks and then suddenly disappeared. You know, Matt Eberflus could be gone if they lose this game at home against green Bay, a division rival. And they, you know, they dropped the four and six. It is, do you expect them to have a resurgent performance just because of the shift that at offensive coordinator, or is this going to be more of a jets situation? Well,

Well, I mean, so I don't know the data on offensive coordinators being let go. We have seen, we did the research and saw that when head coaches are replaced, the week one bump, the first week is actually really successful. They see the Saints. Yeah, exactly. And then after that week, it all goes to crap that, you know, just like the team that, you know, needed to fire their head coach.

how you would expect them to perform. With the offensive coordinator being that the game is at home, I think you could see a little bit of an offensive bump here from the Bears. That would be very exciting, but... It'd be nice if it was a better matchup than Green Bay. Yeah, I mean, the truth is,

You're hoping that the Bears have a great offensive performance, not for the Bears' side of the ball, but for the Packers' side of the ball. Because I can't imagine right now you have the confidence to start many Bears. You can start DeAndre Swift. He's been involved and at the running back position you need him. But DJ Moore, Romo Dunz, A. Keenan Allen, Cole Komet, Caleb Williams, I don't know how you start them. You just hope they do enough where the guys that you do want to start over on the Packers' side of the ball –

have to keep going. You love what you saw from Jaden Reed. That's why you like Josh Jacobs though, right? Yes, exactly. The game script. Look, so embarrassing for Chicago last week against New England at home scoring three points. That's unimaginable. It makes you very not confident. Swift has kind of returned

to earth a little bit after his upshot, but you're right. The opportunity should be there. But beyond that, I wouldn't have confidence with anybody. Yeah, so when it comes to the Packers, obviously you're going to start Josh Jacobs. The question at wide receiver, I think most people are starting Jaden Reed this week. You've got enough bye weeks where he's pretty much locked in. But what are you doing with – are you willing to take a shot on a Christian Watson, Dontavian Wicks, Romeo Dobbs? I'm okay with Dobbs because the –

The targets are there. I'm not expecting, you know, in week six and week seven where he was a top 15 play. I don't expect that, but he should see six or more targets. And you just hope he scores. What about Jordan Love? Are you starting him here? Because right now the Bears' schedule adjusted on the season. They're number two against quarterbacks. They don't give up a lot in the passing game. Coming off the bye, I'm going to, you know, it always depends on your options.

But Banker Mayfield's on by this week. Kyler Murray's on by this week. I know you start Bryce Young in all your leagues. He's on by this week. Of course. Your stream options, it's do you have faith in Bo Nix or Russell Wilson, or do you just want to play Jordan Love? So it's not an easy decision this week. Did I say Banker Mayfield? Is that what you said, Banker? That's what I heard, yeah. Huh.

I want to be a banker. I'd rather him be a laser than a banker. Jordan Love has been, you know, just very good. Yes, he has. He struggled those last few games, but I credit a lot of that to the groin injury. Yeah, I mean, he left one of them early, and then the other one was playing hurt in the rain. I love that he's coming off of the bye week, a little bit of extra rest for him. Yeah, I think he's a low-end starter this week. Okay.

Yeah, Jaden Reed, I'd get him in there. But no, I don't have the guts to start a Wicks or a Watson. Yeah, I would bench those guys this week, if possible. Tucker Craft, your start of the week at tight end, Mike. Jacksonville's 2-8. They take on the 8-1 Detroit Lions.

The Lions are 13-point home favorites. Opened at 12.5, so it's not large enough. So DK has the over-under at 47. That gives Detroit 30 points. So, yeah, I mean, this is one of those games where, you know, this should be the automatic survivor pool victory no matter what type of situation. And I don't expect to be surprised by it, but...

You know, Mac Jones is getting the start. You don't really have confidence. Like, is it possible we could literally be telling you not to start a single Jacksonville Jaguar this week? Or are you slipping Evan Ingram into that group? Evan Ingram, his DK reception line is at five and a half. So they expect him to still see targets. Like it wasn't.

It wasn't amazing last week, but it also wasn't the worst thing we've ever seen. But he passed five and a half last week, right? Six receptions. Yeah, but he was not good. Six for 40. That's what I mean. But it's not – I'm saying you're at least getting something out of him. I don't think Evan Ingram is like, oh, man, I've got to bench him and go get one of these nasty tight ends. I mean, I would play – let's put that – I mean, I'd play John Smith over him. I do not think Evan Ingram gets to 10 fantasy points and half PPR.

I also wouldn't play Johnny Smith over him. I was lying just now. Okay, thank you for your honesty. That's the line right about there. They're saying it's not the week for it, so he's probably in. And then ETN is – Would you play Taysom Hill? Tucker Kraft? I would play Kraft. I would not play Hill. So the matchup is awful for the running backs, of course, but Tank Bigsby got hurt in the game.

He was a did-not-practice on Wednesday. So if there's ever a time where ETN should just have a huge workload, and Dearness Johnson was also limited on Wednesday. That's the upside here. You hope he catches four to five passes. I wouldn't start Travis ETN if he was my only running back on my roster. The targets haven't been there. He doesn't have Trevor Lawrence. It's a Detroit defense. Yeah, I mean...

Anyone can end up with a pass interference call at the one and then Travis Etienne get a touchdown. But honestly, if he has three or four options from the one yard line against this Detroit team, I'm not sure he gets in the end zone. Would you...

He might still be on the waiver wire. Who knows? But the hot name, Audrick Estime against the Falcons. Yeah, I would. Okay, what about Gus Edwards is back. For sure. He's playing Cincinnati. Sure. Personally, I would play Gus Edwards ahead of Estime. I think that's not consensus, but I think Gus gets a touchdown this week. What about Madison against Miami? Let's just say everybody. Okay. I didn't know it was that bad. It just seems like...

very, very low odds to be happy. I agree. I mean, I would say you had low odds to be happy with Lawrence and you're sitting here in the last three weeks. Travis Etienne is averaging 2.9 fantasy points per game. Averaging.

With his high being sub-five. Yeah, I mean, he's outside the top 36 at the position on the year. I know he missed a couple games. I'm not dropping him. I still think things can turn around for him specifically because of... Like a turnaround. He was injured, so they were working him back. Now Trevor Lawrence is not there. But he could be back. But he could come back. The matchups get better. I think...

Travis Etienne has brighter days ahead. I'm not saying he's done for his career, but this week, no way. Brian Thomas is the same way for me. Brian Thomas against Detroit this week. You can put him out there as a flex, but I'm playing Juwan Jennings over him. I'm playing T. Higgins with one less quad over him. Just being on this side.

While it's you two being the ones disparaging Travis ETN is guys. It feels good. It feels so good. Yeah. I mean, you do. It's pretty fun on this side, too. You need peripherals. You can't have no quarterback. No offense. No line. The peripheral is last man standing. That's.

That's the play. That's fine. And I do think on the line side of the ball, you can play everyone. There exists a path where all of a sudden the touchdowns come early on the running game. I really do believe, and obviously the NFL is drunk sometimes and things are shockingly unexpected.

But I do think that the Lions, everyone gets a piece. You worry in matchups like this when there's a point spread like this where it's going to be all running and there's going to be no passing touches. I think everyone – I'd play all of my Lions. I think they score 40 points and everyone gets a little piece. Well, Laporta you need to keep an eye on because he missed practice on Wednesday, so Laporta's shoulder could take him off of the list for you. That's why you need to look at these other pivot tight ends.

And then Jameson Williams is still going to be a big play reliant. But, yeah, I mean, when you have a 30-point implied point total at home. Yeah, get in on it. Yeah. So Minnesota is 7-2. They take on the 2-7 Tennessee Titans. Good palindrome game. Yes. DraftKings Sportsbook line, Minnesota on the road minus 6. Over-unders 39-1⁄2. That gives Tennessee –

a lower implied point total than Jacksonville has on the road against Detroit. Both defenses on paper are, you know, Minnesota's obviously great. Tennessee's been okay. Will Levis is going to just, he's going to look real, real bad again. If I had a button, if I had a button, this would be my button. Whoa!

This would be my almost upset. Is this because you haven't liked what you've seen from Minnesota's offense over the last couple weeks? Sam Donald's starting to pumpkin. Five interceptions in the last two weeks. And this is a good defense. The reason Tennessee is losing games is not because of their defense. Their defense is pretty good. It's kept them in games, and then Will Levis has found a way to gift

the other offense, the ball in great field position. And so I think it'll be a little bit more of a struggle. Are you talking about zero touchdown Will Levis last week? Yeah. Or zero, sorry, zero interception Will Levis. Whoa. Yeah. No, it's...

Minnesota's defense is very difficult to run on, but over the course of the season, you have been able to pass on them. Wide receivers are fine against them, so that's why I like Calvin Ridley in this matchup, and I think that if this defense at home could turn Sam Darnold over a few times. Yeah, I guess I kind of get it.

I mean, I still think Minnesota ends up winning the game. It's an almost upset. You do like Calvin Ridley. His reception line is four and a half. He's your start of the week. And Pollard, you know, Mike was kind of on top of it last week and just saying that since Spears has been gone, you've seen that workload, 74, 89, 82, 86% of the snaps. It went down to 54%.

Maybe they had the ability to give him more of a rest because he's been dealing with injury. Pollard in this matchup, it's tough sledding. Yeah, this is one where if you've got another option, you might not have a better option than Pollard, but if you do, I would look that way. The opportunities, once Spears came back, you had Pollard getting 20 carries, 28 carries. And then this last week, nine carries with Spears back, a tough Minnesota run to get.

It's not, you know, you're down almost a touchdown here as far as the DK line. So I think he is someone you've got to take a hard look at and not just bank on what he did a month ago. One player that's been really disappointing this year, ranked at wide receiver 63, averaging just three for 39 since the buy-in. Now you have the addition of TJ Hawkinson. I'm talking about Jordan Addison. Like he is...

He was a flashy name. He performed last year. But I think at this point, you need to move on and find better options off of the waiver wire because...

It's going to be Jefferson, Hawkinson, Jones. They're all much higher in the pecking order. Even Naylor's been involved in games that Addison hasn't been involved. Are you fully moving on from Addison? Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of names out there. I would rather play Ricky Pearsall. I'd rather play Quentin Johnston. Jacoby Myers. Jacoby Myers for sure. Jerry Judy. Jalen Wadden. That was hard. Jalen Waddle.

Cedric Tillman. There's a handful of names that I would much rather have than Jordan Addison. I'd actually, in this game, I'd probably rather play Westbrook Akine on the other side, who's actually scored in four of five weeks. Like, he's been looked to on the goal line. He's out there almost 100% of the time. I think he is a boring but somewhat productive option for fantasy players in a game where you can't run.

and you are going to have to throw the football all game long. Any other thoughts on this game, Mike? No. Other than Will Levis already having nightmares about the blitzing of Minnesota? Oh, there's no nightmares, man. Just mayonnaise? You're not scared of what you can't see? Yeah, I was going to say, he does not see them in his dreams either, man. No. I promise. He has never seen a pass rush in his life.

He just also is like, I'm on the ground again. Did you see that Kyler comment about? I almost have fallen over. What was that? You see Kyler's hit last week from Quincy Williams where the helmet went flying? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, that was a murderous hit. So Kyler's like, he said he didn't even know what happened. He just was on the ground. And then he said he liked it.

He said it got his adrenaline going and he hadn't been hit in a while. And then he played really well after that. He did. He played really well. But that was a complete blindside. And unlike Will Levis, Will Levis is blindsided from straight in front of him. Yes. But this was an actual blindside where the guy was coming from behind. He had no idea that someone was there because he doesn't actually have eyes on the back of his head. Will Levis does have eyes on the front of his head. He still can't see people right in front of him. The report is true.

Will Levin, it was part of his scouting report, has eyes in the front of his head. No, doesn't have eyes in the front of his head. Oh, does it? I'm trying to teach the man that, yes, you do.

He keeps his eyes downfield too far. He's laser focused on his wide receivers. His eyes are always 30 yards downfield and has no, like, I don't know the amount of bokeh on his eye lenses, but he can't see. Does he have a peripheral vision issue? He has to, man. He has to. He's always zooming? Yes. It's like, dude. There's no macro? Yeah. He's got to take a wider. Photography jokes. A wider lens replacement.

Nice Boca joke, bro. Baltimore 7-3, Pittsburgh 7-2, DK Sportsbook line Baltimore minus 3, the over-under is 48. It's in Pittsburgh. I want to know right at the top, before the analysis for fantasy, who do you think wins the ballgame? Baltimore. I think they are too much for the Steelers.

I don't. I mean, it's Baltimore minus three. I guess I'm overdue. All right. All right. It's been a minute. If you can find that drop. Oh, here it is. Andy's almost upset of the week. This is the kind of game Baltimore loses. On the road.

really difficult divisional game with the crowd and the pressure and teams that know each other and teams that know what Lamar knows how to do. I, I don't know. I think it's going to be fun. I I'm excited about this game. I know we, we mock Russ, but he's better for this offense. He's better for Pickens. He's better for Williams. He's better for nausea. They're scoring 30 points a game since he became a starter and,

And the Ravens, you know, this is not a Ray Lewis shut-you-down defense. Oh, no. This is a – we're going to – like, I think they can stop the run a little bit, but they'll not – Pittsburgh's not going to stop handing it to Najee. I don't know. I think Pittsburgh has what it takes to kind of put the pressure on Baltimore, and Baltimore's had –

They've had a couple close wins this year, and then they've had a few losses that are like... They just fall apart in the second half. Yeah, they've just been kind of outmatched, and I just wonder if the pressure's on, if Lamar tries to do too much and can't get it done. Well, you've had Pittsburgh here scoring points with Russ.

So, you know, they've got three starts, three wins, 37 points, 26 points, 28 points scored by the Steelers. So that's exciting. And I think they can score on the Ravens. The question on the other side, to me, is about Derrick Henry, because the passing defense for the Steelers has been very, very good in four career starts overall.

Lamar Jackson has not scored 20 fantasy points against Pittsburgh. So to kind of speak to your almost upset. They know what to do against him a little bit. Yeah, there's a clear path here for the Baltimore Ravens to come out and be disappointing against Pittsburgh. That's why I think this comes down to Derrick Henry. Can this Steelers run defense that really is just middle of the pack

The last six weeks. Exactly. Recently, they have not been good. They're 27th over the last six weeks against fantasy running backs. So that's where, I mean, I got to check Vermont's weather, but if there's snow on the ground in Vermont, I think Derrick Henry is the reason that Baltimore wins this game. Well, the DK rushing yard line on Derrick Henry is a very healthy 86 and a half.

Yeah, that's... So they're expecting Derek Henry... They're expecting snow on the ground in Vermont. Okay. I do have Kyle researching the weather report in Vermont. How do we not have a... Did you send him out there? Do we have a... I believe he just went... We need boots on the ground. How do we not... We're a company of automation, guys. How is this... How do we not have, like, a siren go off in our office? Honestly...

And this is way too late to do this. But we should have been having Vermont weather on the back wall for a long time. Yeah, at least during all Derrick Henry games. And if you're new to the fantasy footballers and you're not sure, there has been absurd correlation between snow on the ground in Vermont and Derrick Henry's success, no matter where he's playing, which has never been in Vermont. Kyle says it doesn't look like snow. Also, this is a bit. This is a bit. But.

But it's also, if Derek Henry has a poor game. He's also had some really great games.

Without snow on the ground. Well, yeah. He's Derrick Henry. Whatever. Come on. Lamar Jackson, you play. Henry, you play. Zay Flowers, are you back at it? Yes. Zay Flowers is an every week start. You just got to take the lumps. Isaiah Likely was back at practice. Mark Andrews has a 17% target share over the last five weeks. Steelers middle of the pack against tight ends. Seems like it would be really difficult for you to have a pivot if you've been playing Mark Andrews. I agree with that, and I am...

I'm excited to see what actually happens here. Now that like,

He was forced into a full-time role last week against Cincinnati. Talking about Mark Andrews because Likely was out. But everything was ramping up for him. So I want to see, now that Likely is back, does that ramp continue? Because that will be just a huge shot of confidence here to close the season. Yeah, I will say that I've talked up TJ Hawkinson a lot. I have Hawkinson and Andrews in a league, and I am playing Andrews. Are you really? Yeah, I'm going to stay in the Flames because I think –

It's kind of like what we talked about last week with Andrews versus Gasicki where it's about the touchdown. I think that there's a higher likelihood of Andrews getting a touchdown than Hawkinson. If he doesn't, if neither guy gets a touchdown, Hawkinson probably has more targets, receptions, maybe yards. The last five weeks of Mark Andrews,

tied in 4-3-10 30 against Denver but if you remember the context of what happened that was the Zay Flowers week where Flowers had two drive ending touchdown receptions and then the team scored 41 points against Denver and they pulled everybody out it was a blowout and Mark Andrews played half the snaps and then back to tight end two the following week so we were just

you know i don't think it's a guarantee for andrews but we're on a really really good trajectory right now let me ask you this before we move on final question in the game andy i i picked baltimore to win you weren't sure almost upset but the line set at 48 do you think this is more offensive or defensive i i see it right middle of the road i may be leaning offensive honestly um

So, you know, 48 points is a lot. Yeah. So I don't – I'm not necessarily taking me over there, but I think that's right. I think 48 points is about right. I find myself agreeing with you. That's part of what I like about Andrews is I can see the path for this game going very large. Jason, would you play Jalen Warren or Travis Etienne? I think you've done it. You've found a way to get me to say Jalen Warren. Okay, good. That's what I was trying to get to. We'll take a break. We'll come back with some more matchups.

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The Las Vegas Raiders, 2-7, take on the 3-6 Miami Dolphins in Miami. Miami, seven-point home favorites. DK has it at 44, the over-under. The Raiders have made an about-face we had announced yesterday because the report... Snip, snap, snip, snap. It came out from official sources that...

Desmond Ritter was going to be the starter. And then Vic DeFore came out and said they got cold feet and it's actually going to be Minshew. Yeah, I mean, you should. Yeah. You don't have good options at quarterback, but Ritter shouldn't be any of the options. We went to practice and we put Ritter out there and then we were like, what are we doing? Look at this. Until Sunday, guys. It's the ultimate ruse. Ooh, I like it.

Yeah, I just... I'm sure they'll have packages for both. This is good for Brock Bowers. It's good for Jacoby Myers, whose reception line is 5.5. It's good for any hope of the Raiders scoring points. Now, the Miami Dolphins' defense looked really good against the Rams. They're at home. They've got their guys back. I feel like Miami...

should be able to beat up on a bad team here. That's what we should be able to get. I completely agree. We had talked about putting a pause on our belief of the Miami defense because the Miami defense...

They're number one schedule adjusted on the course of the year against quarterbacks. They're top 10 against wide receivers and tight ends. Their passing defense has been really, really good, but we weren't sure how much of that was Tua being gone. When you watched that Island game against the Rams last week, their defense was outstanding. They were pressuring the Rams so much all game. You've got Ramsey in the backfield.

And Calais Campbell seems young again at 38 years old. So I think their defense is legit. It's going to be very difficult sledding here for the Raiders. Does that make Tua a spot start for you or no? Because he hasn't hit 20 fantasy points in 14 straight starts. He's not. Can we just have Tyreek a shot?

The wild thing here. And Waddle. Chuck it. Stop going to John. Chuck it. Stop going to John O'Smith. Stop it. Stop. It's gross. It's disgusting. It's not efficient. It's okay. It's been a day. It's not John O's fault, okay? No, John O, you're doing a great job. But I want to see you doing cardio. I want to see you out there drawing defenders and not getting that ball because I want the ball in Waddle and Tyreek's hands. I really like H-Hand in this game. I really –

I'm hopeful that, look, this is a scary, terrifying Tyreek Hill game for me because his receiving line is at 67 and a half. He is dealing with the wrist injury. If he's not productive in this game, and I'm not talking eight, nine points. If he doesn't score 15 points in this game,

I'm worried that the injury is going to linger through the remainder of the season. The Raiders, if their defense can do one thing, it's slow down wide receivers. Last six weeks, wide receivers are second in adjusted schedule against them right now. Look, Tyreek never has cared about those numbers before. But that DK line is like, okay, the Sharps are taking this serious. I'm saying that's not a lot for Tyreek, though.

Is that, well, I mean, it would be after last week. Yeah. I guess you're right. I guess you're right. I mean, like normally when you look at last year and what he averaged per game. Yeah, he was like, Hill's line is like 80-something. You're like, yeah, that makes sense for Tyreek Hill, that it's all the way down to 67. He averaged 112 yards a game last year. So that, you know what, that's a good point. The target share is just, I mean, it's not John who's fault, but they are featuring the tight end position way, way more than they ever have. I was thinking about Tyreek Hill last,

after the last game and realizing that right now Tyreek Hill has been, I mean, abysmal. He's played in every single game. He's the wide receiver 32. He's not even a wide receiver two. In the games with Tua, he's been just as bad. Nothing has gone right for him. I've seen so many trades where, you know, should I move Tyreek for this wide receiver who's been performing and

You've got to take a... I mean, we don't know the future. There's wrist injury concerns. There's schematic concerns. There's wrist risk. Wrist risk. However, I...

am going to bet on Tyreek Hill. And so that's my official stance. Like I would personally be willing to even go trade for him because right now I've seen some trades where it's not costing you much. If you've got a, if you've got a guy that's been scoring, you know, people are wanting to get out of Tyreek Hill and I'm not guaranteeing that that's going to be the right move for

But at the end of the year, I don't think we're going to look back and say Tyreek Hill lost it and is, you know, a seventh round pick next year because this entire season he just sucked. I think he'll get it together. He's still, like you watch him on the field, he's still lightning fast. He's still fast. But there's other fast players. I mean, like Tyreek Hill's success is not just because he's fast.

Yeah, I mean, I just want it on the record that, you know, it's kind of like when Mark Andrews was sucking and people were dropping him. And it's just like, hold on. This is a good player. He looks good on the field. I believe in the talent. I don't think he's lost it. So that's where I am officially with Tyreek. Is Raheem Moser dead as a flex option? For now, yeah. I mean, if you're getting three opportunities last week, you can't.

start someone that's not touching the ball well the Rams lost last week to the Dolphins they are four and five they go to New England to take on the three and seven Patriots the DK Sportsbook line Rams minus four and a half on the road the over-under is 43 and a half um you know the Rams games have hit the under four or five games their defense it was a defensive battle against Miami Matthew Stafford has Cooper Cup Puka Nakua both those guys are in your lineup right I mean

Is it as simple as Stafford, Kyron, Cooper, and Puka? Yeah, it definitely is. And then on the other side, Ramondre gets tipped over into the end zone a couple times a week lately. It's not been efficient. He did jump up to 3.7 last week. His rushing and receiving yards line from DK is 77.5.

Mm-mm. Holy not going to happen. Mm-mm. You don't like that. No, I do not like that. No, I do. I like that number to say that he will not get there. Well, when's the last time he's gotten that? Last week was 77. Yeah, he hit 74 rushing yards against the Bears. Yeah, and three receiving yards.

I'll be right back. It's one of those things where the team has so... The team has so... I'm just going to go make sure that line is accurate and maybe do something about it. This team has so few options in the passing game and in the offensive side that they're just committed to handing the ball to him a ton. And so that's led to inefficiency. They don't have players to take away eight in the box against Ramondre Stevenson. I don't think he...

has looked particularly bad or good or anything. I just think it's, you know, boonies.

But Boutte is getting the most playing time at wide receiver right now. Like if there was a player I'm picking up to start, I would play him in the same breath of Demario Douglas. I mean, he's getting 99% of snaps. He had six targets. You got three weeks in a row with that, Andy. This is a mark of the beast situation. Six, six, six targets each of the last three weeks. So, yeah, I mean, you're – It's a mark of the Boutte. Yeah.

You are the mark of the bootay. You're correct that he is involved. He's also getting some shots downfield. It hasn't turned into much, though.

Like that's, that's kind of the issue is you don't expect a lot of touchdowns here. Like with Westbrook Akene, he's, he's getting in the end zone and I just don't know how often the Patriots are going to, I think the Rams coming off a loss. A DFS play, a punt play. I'm with Andy. Yes, it's the production's not hitting, but if the other stuff are there saying that at least it could happen. If you want a DFS punt play in this game,

Davis Allen is 2,500. He only had the job last year during an injury, but this is a guy who I liked for Dynasty. If you listen to the offseason before they brought in Parkinson, this was a player who looked like he was going to take a year or two leap into a starting role, and then you look at his snap percentages on the year, 8% of snaps.

0% of snaps, 4% of snaps. It's just completely uninvolved. And then this last week, 80% of snaps. Colby Parkinson was not on the injury report. This was a, hey, we're just going to move. And what happened?

Six targets, five receptions. Oh, yeah, I was going to say they lost. Oh, sure. No, they did lose. Got to get the Colby Jack out there. I don't think I'm playing Davis Allen in any kind of redraft league, but if you are looking for a super cheap punt play. And I am. You can't get 2,500. 2,500. Oh, all right. Well, I guess we know who Mike's going to play. 2,500? I know. That's...

That's usually the pump plays a tight end or three K. Yeah. So New York city, Cleveland two and seven, new Orleans, three and seven games in new Orleans, drive King sports book line, Cleveland minus one over under 44 and a half. Give me your gut reaction. Who wins this game? Cleveland. I have Cleveland winning this game as well. I think the one game post coaching change, uh,

hype is over well that look he uh he instilled more of a falcon-esque strategy i don't know if he knew this but before last game he detailed how his day uh-huh his first day coaching the team started with him clogging the toilet yeah in the head coach's locker room he told people this yeah yeah so he said a real man does mike he said he thought it was going to be a bad day and i'll tell you here

Every time Falcon clogged the toilet, we had a bad day. We don't got good days. Yeah, that's true. I love that. Rizzy? Yeah. Rizzy's clogging the drains, huh? I mean, that's how you christen a bathroom, man. This is your first time in the head coach's locker room toilet, and it's like, this is my throne now.

Take this. You can't. I guess I've never thought about this. The head coach has his own commode? This is the first time I've ever heard of the head coach's locker room in my life. Yeah, that sounds like there's a whole locker room, but he only needs to use one locker. Well, I mean, it's like, you know, fancy businesses. The CEO has a private bathroom. Why, the head coach. Yeah. He should. You got to drop a dump of whiskey. You don't want to be in there playing, you know,

playing battle poops with the team. But you don't usually have a locker room for one. It's also difficult. It would be amazing. It just depends with one locker.

That'd be great. Or there's 10 lockers, but they're all yours. You know what I mean? This is my- Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Look, the problem with having your own bathroom is that there's no doubt who's the clogger. Right. You could have blamed somebody. But he's not a blame guy. No, he took full accountability. I like the Riz. I think this game's pretty heads up to me. I can see it going both directions. James Winston's so schizophrenic on the field.

You know, you've had a pretty bad Saints defense, but there have been a game or two where they've looked okay. Let's get to the fantasy players that matter here. The number one start-sit guy out there coming off the bye had been really good as the wide receiver 14, 3, and 16, Cedric Tillman. He's the number one name. Tillman or Juwan Jennings?

Tillman or Devontae Smith, Tillman or Calvin Ridley. I like Tillman, but it's not over any of those names to me. Yeah, I agree. Tillman, you know,

12 targets, 9 targets, 11 targets. Yeah, no, he's been involved. He's looked good, 81, 99, and 75 yards. But the total fantasy production has really been propped up by three touchdowns in the last three games. So whether you expect that to continue or not, I would think – Which one was the real stinky trash –

That must have been week nine where it was like, I mean, the catch was awesome, but it was like the game was over and the clock was running out and it was just, oh, sweet. That's great for fantasy. I believe that was their last game. So we like Kamara. Nick Chubb, we brought him up. This is a week you can kind of start him with some confidence because of New Orleans' leaky run defense. Did you say his line? His rush yard line's at 58 and a half. Okay. That's all right. That's fine. We'll take that. MVS was the show last week.

But I mean, like, can you start anybody beyond Camara? It doesn't feel like it. You could start Taysom Hill just because of the position. I don't love this. Could you sit Taysom Hill too? Yeah, you definitely could start or sit Taysom Hill. You can do that with almost every player. Almost. Not Etienne. Oh, because you can't start. Okay. I see what you did. This is totally going to. There's no way this could blow up in my face. Dude, he's going for 20 plus fantasy points.

Well, so you don't feel confident then the dart throws on that team. The thing about MVS is he matches up with what Derek Carr has done well this year. And the matchup the last six weeks, the Browns 25th against quarterbacks, 30th against wide receivers. So it's not impossible. But remember, it's MVS. Yeah.

Yeah, this is a man who failed with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. Yeah. So don't overreact. He needed a good quarterback. Jerry Judy's been hiding back behind Cedric Tillman, but actually getting targets as well. Hasn't had the performances. Hasn't gotten into the end zone since week one.

but a desperation play, maybe Jerry Judy in this matchup, 19 targets in the last two games. You can, you can certainly look his way. All right. It's time to move forward. Jason, go ahead and reach behind you. We've got the, give me the wig. I've got the parlay part. Give me the wig. And last week, Jason and I, well, we, we got fitted for some Royal crowns. I would say we look pretty, pretty good. You do. You do.

And last week, I look like James Cook trying to catch his targets. Last week, I was lucky enough to get Aaron Jones over 60 rushing yards despite the injury. Jason, did you count his cart yards? No, they were not factored in. I mean, he put up probably 70 plus. I forgot he came back into the game and actually put up 88. Yeah, we thought for sure that you took the L on that. Yeah.

because he left the game injured. It was like, well, that stinks. And then he's back in and crosses the line. I thought I took an L on Alvin Kamara over four and a half receptions because I was counting them as we went along. And I was like, oh, I guess I thought I needed one more. I didn't. We crushed. Good job, Andy. Good work. And James Cook couldn't get it done. No. Was not cooking. This week's picks, I'm going to go Calvin Ridley.

50-plus receiving yards. His numbers since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, 143, 73, and 84. Hopefully I'm not ruining this man by actually focusing on him. I've just been letting him perform in the background. That's not even true. You had him as your second-half sleeper. You came out in favor for him, and he did well. Thank you for reminding me of that. Last week, what I wanted to take was Kareem Hunt's receiving over because of the matchup against the Denver Broncos. They are one to target for receiving overs for Denver.

Running backs, but he had only been getting like one target a game, one target, maybe two targets. He had 10 targets last week.

And so I'm going to take B. John Robinson against Denver Broncos this week over three and a half receptions. He's averaging 4.1 receptions per game. And again, Denver is the way that their defense plays. You can hit them over the top in the check down with, I guess, it's not really over the top. It's like over the bottom. You're going to hit them over. No, it's not over the bottom. What are you talking about? I'm saying when you pass to the running back, you're not going over the top.

No, you're checking it down. I was looking for something a little bit new, fresh. You're looking for something different? Why? Everyone knows what a check down is. But we know what a check down is. But this is like the defense is coming at you. You got to go over the bottom. You know what I mean? Like a slip screen. Yeah. I'm going over the bottom here, man. Like a slippery. I'm just going to try on for size, see if it works. It's not working. It's working for me. All right.

I got George Pickens at 60-plus receiving yards. It's not just me believing in Georgie Porgie this week. Andy's in. It's the start of the week. It's the Baltimore stuff, yada, yada, yada. His actual line is under 60, so I'm taking a few bonus yards here. But we made it into the parlay. Just so that the comments aren't filled with this, Kyle has been quick to remind us that it is called throwing underneath. So over the top, you throw underneath.

You're not into that? Yeah, underneath. Check it down. No, I'm throwing over the bottom, though. But you can't throw over the bottom. I think you can, man. I really, I can throw over the bottom. Well, you can, but professional quarterbacks can't. Man.

Kirk Cousins is going to throw over the bottom all game. I know it. I'm going to start sad every time I see one of those where the pass rush is coming. It's like, oh, over the bottom. You know those moments when you're like... If it hits a guy in the back, that's over the bottom. That's into the bottom. That's too literal. All right. That was Fantasy Forecast presented by DraftKings Pick 6. Download the new DraftKings Pick 6 app now. Use the code BALLERS. That's the code BALLERS for new customers to play $5 and get $50 in Pick 6 credits. Pick 6 credits.

credits. Alright, that'll do it for today's show. More matchups. The fantasy face-off. The wheel of shame that I won't be spinning tomorrow. Lord, man, leave me alone. Goodbye.