10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy League - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/14
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This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. Thursday night football is on and it's only on Prime Video. This Thursday, it's a Sean Payton homecoming as his Denver Broncos take on his former team, the New Orleans Saints. Coverage begins at 7 p.m. Eastern with football's best party TNF tonight presented by Verizon Live.

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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Big, big episode. The Fantasy Footballers, Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, coming at you. Coming to yee-haw. Yee-haw. Let's go. Top 10 tips and tricks.

Thank you. Yeah, it's a big episode. Top 10 tips and tricks to win your league. This is our 10th season, and I'm pretty sure we've done this every year. So we've got to be pushing. Oh, my gosh. That's 100. That's 100 ways that you can give yourself an advantage. So we always try to bring something new to the table. So we've got 10 tips and tricks, some strategy advice for you on the show today.

And I'm excited. I think it's going to be fun. I am too. I've been looking forward to this show for quite a while, and I'm also looking forward to tomorrow's episode.

Whatever it is. We don't know. I mean, we do. Well, we know. Yeah, we know. They don't know. Yeah. They're very good episodes this week. I'll say this. Today's the top 10 tips and tricks episode. They're narrowing it down. They'll never figure it out. And my guys is coming soon. It's this week, but it could be Friday. It could be Thursday or Friday. Yeah.

Lots going on. Very, very excited to have you with us. Thank you for supporting the show. Shout out to the Foot Clan, everybody supporting it. Jointhefoot.com. Shout out to everybody coming out to see us in Los Angeles in less than two weeks.

which you can do, ballerslive.com, if you want to know more about our live event at the Palace Theater in Los Angeles, presented by Sleeper. And, of course, I mean, I don't want to bury this because it's the biggest week for the UDK and for this giveaway. UDK. But on Friday, we've got the UDK for Life giveaway live on YouTube.

We'll be streaming the giveaway. We'll be giving away a Justin Jefferson jersey. And all you have to do is pick up the UDK before Friday. So if you bought it in the past, you're entered to win. If you haven't bought it yet, you're kind of behind the eight ball here. So long as the past was this year.

you have to have gotten the 2024 ultimate draft kit. You're not entered if you're the 2017 to automatically be in there, but yeah, go get it now. I mean, this is the time, man. This is draft season is upon us. We're right around the corner. Take a look at the hundred plus video profile, you know, breakdowns of each of the top players are

Our tiered rankings, that's the way we try to encourage everyone to draft is based on tiers. We're going to give you a lot of tips and tricks today, and some of them will be, you know, it'll correlate to what you can do with that tool. Yep, and this is the time. We see it every year. People are listening, but this is when they jump into the Ultimate Draft Kit. That's ultimatedraftkit.com. All right, I'm excited about this. We had a week one of preseason football, so let's talk about it. ♪ music playing ♪

Welcome to Hungry for More, presented by Uber Eats. All right, looking at preseason week one and players we are hungry for more from. I have to bring up a name that is kind of, you know, it's percolated throughout the offseason and there are other names involved in the wide receiver discussion in Cincinnati, but

It doesn't hurt if you come out in week one and go three for 82 and a big touchdown. Jermaine Burton of the Cincinnati Bengals. The big play is the M.O. for Jermaine Burton. So to see it in preseason week one, I mean, this is a guy that was top five or actually he led power five wide receivers in average depth of target. Yeah, we got to hit him with that number. Average depth of target. So this is how far he was down the field.

on average when he was catching the ball. 20.2 yards down the field. That's unbelievable. He was also like third fastest in next-gen stats and ran a 4.45, so...

You talk about what makes a wide receiver three, if he ends up winning that job, valuable. When you're not number one in the pecking order of targets or number two with Higgins and Chase, it is the big play. And even Tyler Boyd, it sounds funny because we don't look at Tyler Boyd as an explosive player necessarily by kind of archetype, but in that offense, even Tyler Boyd,

regularly was kind of forgotten about by the secondary and would end up with these big plays. So I want to see more Jermaine Burton in the preseason. I love this call so much. I mean, he should be higher in most people's dynasty rankings and perceived long-term value than he is right now. I think he's undervalued. T. Higgins obviously is not going to be on this team next year. At least that's what it seems like right now. And so you're talking about a future two for Joe Burrow. I love it. I'm going to talk about a current

two, but not really for the Tennessee Titans running game. And that's Tajay Spears. I want to see more of Tajay Spears. It's very, very interesting. This entire offseason, there has been complete consistency from the coaching staff about their running back core, that they have two starters, that it is a 1A and a 1A. I mean, 1A, 1B at the least. Like it's someone's going to get the first snap. Tony Pollard had a great preseason game. He got the first snap. Second snap,

Spears. Then they basically, every couple plays, they just rotate it out. We haven't really seen something like that a lot, but this is really truly that all, both of those guys could be out there on every single down. All the plays they're capable of playing. Should either one of them get injured, the other could be a really great asset. But when I look at these two players and I think, okay, Tony Pollard looked good this preseason game. He's getting paid more. Sure.

But look at last year, and look at, you know, last year Tony Pollard was disappointing. He was not the same explosive back he was years prior, and he's older than you think he is now, whereas Tajay Spears was extremely explosive. He had a reception of 48 yards, a reception of 42 yards, a reception of 89 yards, a reception of 41. Like, he's a really explosive back, and if he's being utilized and they go with the hot hand,

I think there's a good chance that his hand is hotter than Tony Pollard as the season goes on. Is that the test on the sideline? Yeah, they do a handshake. Oh, they don't go the laser thermometer? No, no, no. This is coach feel, man. This is straight up give me a hearty handshake on the sideline. Line up. You know, Pollard, you get first handshake.

Tajay, you get second. Give me one of your strong. And then he's going to be like, whoa. Literal hot hand approach. That's exactly right. Look, I like the idea of them having kind of an old school green chalkboard on the sideline, and it's just a dash for every carry for each guy and evens it up. When he said Spears was in on the second snap, it was,

Imagine if, like, no matter what the rules for the Titans are, it's every other snap. Oh, no matter. No matter what. It's locked. Do you know how tired those running backs would be? Half the running is getting off the field? The amount of...

running just to get out there's like coach please leave me on the field I'm tired every snap believe it or not we have a uh Sam DeSorbo wrote a does the hot hand exist article on the website that you can go look up so apparently we have an article for everything you could say Jason sweet which is scary all right Mike who do you got who are you hungry for more I am the senate Ben's senate baby the senator of Washington did you see it did you see the play

I am famished and I need more Ben and Senator. I need more Ben Senate in my life. It was rumbling and bumbling and stumbling and dragging multiple defenders down the, just down the field. He looks like the guy that I scouted and hoped it would translate. He is a rookie tight end for Washington. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Voice of public opinion. Zach hurts his eternal.

He is, and unfortunately, the offensive coordinator, Cliff Kingsbury, loves Zach Ertz, so I still do think that it takes time for Ben Sinnott. However, this is about being hungry for more of a player, and it's hard to have a better debut in limited snaps than what he put out there. Three for 57. The big catch was 44 yards. He looked...

He looked big, he looked strong, he looked fast. And this is what I need from a tight end. So hopefully, sooner than later, hopefully, Ben Sinek can take the job. He was the highest graded rookie tight end, or highest graded from PFF. So it's just, it's very exciting. It is a little bit comical, the parallels between

the McBride and the patients. Oh, yeah. It's outrageous. You saw the individual patients.

plays for McBride and it was stuff like dragging guys down the field or breaking tackles. And then you see this from Senate and both had Zach Ertz just catching and falling and Cliff Kingsbury involved in their maturation process. But good names, good names for hungry for that was hungry for more presented by Uber Eats. Get almost almost anything for game day delivered with Uber Eats official on demand food delivery partner of the NFL.

order now and I will say this we are this is not a tip or trick to win on game day but it is give us one to lose it is a I figure you could write that book the tips and tricks that I mean what we eat what we get delivered is very dependent on how the week and day is going I'm just saying we've had some

Ice cream afternoons to kind of medicate away the pain. And then we've had some celebratory meals. It's so fabulous on a Sunday morning to have, like if you're watching your fantasy team and your guys put up an absolute stinker. You're in a bad, it's not my fault I'm in a bad mood. It's their fault. And you know what?

It's not my fault I'm going to put down a half gallon of ice cream right now. That's their fault. But I'm going to love it. That's how it works. Yeah, it's my player's fault. This Crunchwrap Supreme is in my mouth. It's your fault. Can you imagine when you talk to your doctor and they're like, sir, what are some of the things leading to your challenges with food? Tony Pollard. Yeah.

Who's that? All right. Let's jump in. News and notes from around the league presented by USAA insurance. All right. We've got news for you. We do.

Jamar Chase, Mike, you are not doing work with your guys at all. Jamar Chase missed Tuesday's practice. I'm keeping him healthy. He's awaiting a contract extension still. So he had been showing up and involved during drills. I don't like what's next level. Yeah. As you say, what's the like, come back, do some drills and I'm out again. It's just, I mean, give me my money. Give me my money or I'm going to go home.

and figure it out. I'm curious. So, like, obviously, Jamar Chase, he's, by rule, has to be fined for all of these missed practices in the new collective bargaining agreement. Same with C.D. Lamb. All these guys. Which cannot be rescinded. They can't be rescinded, but they can be restored on the contract. Like, they add it usually to the contract that they eventually sign. But I was thinking about that with Brandon Ayuk. Like, if he ends up getting traded,

He's probably just losing that money. You know what I mean? Maybe. Are the Steelers going to add in all of his fines from him missing practices on the Niners? I don't know. I think they're going to add in so much. I mean, the contract's going to be beautiful. So, I mean, right now, I mean, we don't have it. We don't have an update.

Officially. For IUK? But I do. I mean, it's worth bringing up right here just to give you a lay of the land. If you're listening to this show and you want to know what's going on, and we have been talking about Brandon IUK, as it stands right now, essentially what's being reported by the best in the business is a contract agreement and a trade has been agreed to in principle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers.

The only thing remaining is for the 49ers to give their final sign-off to the deal. The reason that hasn't happened yet is because they have made some final overtures to Brandon Ayuk about a long-term deal, and it seems like it's going to come down to Brandon Ayuk choosing a financially better situation for a team he does want to play for. He wants to go to Pittsburgh. Or San Francisco coming far enough on their offer to bridge that gap and

Keep him in a situation where he's thrived. The last report I saw is it's just a difference of years now from San Francisco. Again, these are all secondhand reports that we're getting, but there was news yesterday that's, oh, well, they're San Francisco. They've come up. They're not that far apart. But if you're like, no, you're a full year apart,

That's a big amount of money actually apart. Yeah, this is, I mean, we've all been in fantasy leagues where we're trying to trade for a guy.

And that owner's like, yeah, I think I'm going to do it. I just got to talk to my co-manager. I got to do something. I'll get back to you. Let me run the numbers. Can you imagine how upset the Steelers are right now? Like the GM in the office, his door is shut and he's cursing out. He's like, come on. You've had weeks. You know, what's funny is you asked me the question on the show like a month ago about how long would you wait?

For a deal. And the truth is, if I think it's in my advantage, I waited two weeks for a deal in our dynasty league because I liked it for myself. So maybe the Steelers are in that boat where it's like, we didn't expect the chance to get a guy like Brandon Ayuk. It's on the table. We might as well just ride this thing. But I guess I'm saying shame on you Niners. That's what I'm saying. I'm saying, come on. It's not helping if they make a trade.

and they get something in return, it's not helping them to wait. Get ready for the season with the personnel you have. And it's not helping Brandon Ayuk if you are going to bring him back to not have him on the field practicing. So, yeah, the delay, not great. This is great, though. Lions head coach Dan Campbell, a.k.a. Guns Mahoney, says he thinks Jameer Gibbs is, quote, going to be fine. Oh, yeah? Keep reading there. Let me give you the exact quote. I think we're going to be fine here, Campbell said. So I think we'll be good.

Okay, he's thinking they're fine, thinking they're good. Not a doctor. I mean, okay.

Do you want that reply or do you want the Jim Harbaugh reply of, I'm not even qualified to be qualified to talk about this? Do you want the tantalizing possibility of him being fine or do you want nothing at all? No, I think I do prefer this, the dog in the fire gif where this is fine. We're all fine here. You know, I mean, I guess it's better than saying I don't think we're going to be fine. I think we're going to miss games. But when you hear this, it makes me feel like,

Could have been more certain. It makes me a little fearful of week one. This sounds to me, not a doctor, but this sounds to me like I think we're going to be okay for week one. I want you to say we will be. All right. Hollywood Brown, four to six weeks. Mike, you had kind of nailed this. You had talked about some previous injury history with this. I'm going to go for it. Sternoclavicular? Yep. Nailed it. Injury? Yeah.

Here we are, Justin Watson taking reps with the first team. And that is because when Hollywood went down, they put in Sky Moore in replacement during the first preseason game. And then they went, oh, that sucks. Justin Watson, you are now... You're kind of like...

summarizing what you think the internal thoughts were. Yeah. Tyrone Tracy. I think they're like, who let Sky go out there again? He just ran out. Yeah. Who did this? With a Watson jersey on. Giants rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. Wow. Was diagnosed with a low right ankle sprain after he got injured during practice. I'm sorry, everyone. We reported what was reported to us. It wasn't a made-up report.

We were told he was air casted and brought to a hospital for special surgery. Now, the hospital clearly, did they turn him away? Because they said, dude, you just got an ankle sprain. Like everybody, like I love the comments on this. I think the Falcon was sharing these with us yesterday. Because when these news, you know, the news breaks, you look at the comments from these major reports.

And it came out that he had a low right ankle sprain. And the first comment was like, I thought he was dead. It was like, how do you go from like air cast season over to,

uh you're gonna be fine you're in meetings and you're not nothing's wrong yeah he was back in meetings is this a pain tolerance issue he feels strong so that's my question is there's really only two paths of truth here it's either he is like a wolverine and the doctors got out longer he doesn't have an ankle sprain anymore doctors got out there on the field and said oh my gosh air cast him get him to the hospital immediately and by the time he's there it's like

I'm good. Or, or he's more like, you know, owl. And it's like, and when he got injured on the field, it's like, um, thoughts on that owl. No, no thoughts. I have, I have a third option. I was so tough. He, he, Paul Pierce and he pooped his pants.

And he needed a way out. He needed a way off that field. Doc, tell him the foot's out. Tell him the foot's off my leg. What was Mac Jones turned down surgery? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Lesser players would have got the surgery. Is that the Tyrone Tracy? Maybe. So, anyways, the good news is here, Tyrone Tracy seems like he's going to be fine for the season. I guess. Awesome. That's big news. It is really good. I mean, all jokes aside, this is great news. Deontay Johnson, day-to-day with a groin strain. Yeah.

So growingindex.com, already updated. And...

There you go. Getting news. What is this? This is an evolving or developing story. We just got word that Mike Evans is leaving. There's a joint practice right now between the Bucs and the Jaguars, and Mike Evans was seen leaving with helmet in hand. Now, it says specifically with Jag's helmet in hand, so I'm just curious. Did he rip a helmet off another player? It is written that way. We could have used a comma. Okay.

Because it's leaving joint practice with Jags. I see. Comma. Helmet in hand. Yes, okay, I see it now. I so omitted it because I read it the same way and I was like, that can't be. This is not Rock and Jock. He got traded in the middle of practice. Do, do, do, do, do, do. Leaving with a Jags helmet on. Okay. Oh, man. He left the joint practice with the Jags.

helmet in hand. We'll pay attention. He also pulled up in like a did you see pulled up in a Bucks helmet. He pulled up in like a literally like a gigantic like car that was a Bucks helmet. Oh for real. It was awesome. You got to see the video. All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USA insurance. Learn more at USA dot com slash insurance. We will take a break and we'll jump right into the tips and tricks.

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Footballers, terms and conditions apply. You need to hire. You need it indeed. All right, it's time to jump into the tips and tricks to win your league. And again, one more reminder for you, please come and join us for the

Megala show in Los Angeles presented by Sleeper. We've got lots of giveaways going on live at the show from Pristine Auction. We're working with Fantasy Cares as well. And this is our 10th anniversary event. You can go to ballerslive.com to come and join us. Next Saturday. Yeah, it's... We're going to have... Part of the Q&A. Going to need to travel over there to do the show. I'm already there. All right. Tips and Tricks.

I don't know why you're laughing and I'm afraid to ask. That video graphic was outstanding. I mean, you got Professor Holloway and Magician Jason. That was pretty silly. All right. Like a sweater on or something. This episode helps you win championships. So we want to bring something new each and every year. Very excited. Time to kick it off. Number 10.

All right, we'll call number 10. Don't live in the past, right? There were a lot of players drafted last year that had very, very hot starts to the season, and it is very much human nature, the nature of fantasy football managers, to believe that they are set, right?

that they have figured out exactly the roster that's going to carry them through the season just because players get off to a hot start. Examples of that, like Travis Etienne and A.J. Brown, had the blistering pace and people traded for him. And Ken Walker started really, really strong. And I've got other examples for you. Tua was the quarterback five through the first eight weeks. From week nine on, quarterback 20. DeAndre Swift was the RB7 quarterback.

From week 12 on, the RB35. I like that you have them called the hotness and the notness. The hotness and the notness. Yeah, these were players you thought were locks. In fact, I traded two at a mic on the basis of the first half of the season. He was presented to me as the hotness. Did you get the notness? No.

No, I got up close and realized this is not. Yeah, it's not good. Stephon Diggs was the wide receiver four from week 11 on, the wide receiver 46. And again, these are not small spans. These are top five, six, seven players for eight to 10 weeks of the season.

And then over the back half of the year, they were players that you would have, you know, in some cases definitely pivoted away from like Tua was not going to win you a championship. So the message here, the tip here is don't copy and paste every previous week. It's not viable to simply do that. You do not win on paper. You do not win on the past or looking at previous stats. And here's a little bit of a nuanced part of the equation here.

It's not just the schedule changing. It's not just injury to your player. But there are also fundamental injuries that happen to players that your player is dependent on. So that's something people don't necessarily pay attention to. You might have a hot start for a wide receiver, but their quarterback might go down. You might have a running back that's been dominant, but their offensive lineman might go down. So paying attention to more than the injuries for your exact player could help define the second half of the year for

and it is easy and it's human nature to want to merely coast your way to the end with that beautifully pictured roster. But do not live in the past. Live week to week and make adjustments now.

isolated to that time and place. Okay, I've got a question for you on this. No questions? Sorry. All right, the number nine. Yeah. So you traded Tua when he was the hotness. You didn't even bring up what I thought was last year's best example, Patrick Mahomes, who was the quarterback three through the first nine weeks, and then from week 10 on he was the quarterback 18. At the halfway point through the season, or maybe five, six weeks in,

Are you willing to trade? So like Mahomes is more in the level of like a Josh Allen, a Jalen Hurts. You're expecting what he did, and you're expecting it to continue forever versus a Tua. Are you willing to take that first half of the season where you are hitting on your Josh Allen or your Jalen Hurts if you drafted them and trade them away to capitalize? Obviously, if you trade them, you're getting a haul back.

Or is there like a tear break where, you know, if it's not the super expected guys, you know, if it's someone more that was drafted later and they're exploding, is that who you're trying to capitalize on? I mean, yes. It's a good question because there are players like Tyreek Hill, for example. Exactly. Who you don't want to go in and just say, well, every player that's playing well for the first half, I want to trade. That's not the message. The message is if you do trade those players,

that might be outperforming their average. That would be probably the first line of my thinking is, are they outperforming a standard that I would expect them to be able to perform at? If you make a trade and you're basing it off of players you think are going to perform in the back half of the year, that moment you make the trade is even value, right? So even if that player keeps playing at this pace and the players I got back keep playing at their pace right then, I'm even.

Theoretically. Right. But if I make the judgment call, this player's outperforming and I like the schedule for this, guys, that's where I can flip the script. And the big component here is just don't sit back and think that I've got it all figured out. It's going to run this way the rest of the year. ETN was one of the... I think he was RB2 over the first half of the year, just behind CMC. The back half of the year didn't score as much. But you could kind of see some of that. We talked about his touchdown dependency in the first half of the year. So...

Those are the opportunities, right? The situations where you are, you know, Etienne's not scoring 28 touchdowns this year. That's a very obvious thing that you can say. So it's a judgment call, but let's not rest on our laurels.

Number nine. You're so comfy. Number nine, I call this make delicious boxes. Okay. I mean, it's like, you know, you're meal prepping for your draft here. This is what you're doing. Okay. You're getting ready to go in with just, oh, man, I got this delicious treat, that delicious treat. And what I'm saying here is put

Some categories together in your mind of things that are important to you. Archetypes of players. Okay? And I'm going to give you examples. I'm going to give you five of my delicious boxes this year. Okay? Player types, archetypes. I want one of these. And I look at who...

fits into that delicious box within the draft early, mid, late. Okay? So, for instance, mobile quarterbacks with upside. That's what I want to leave my draft with. I like those type of players. And so I'm going to look and I'm going to be prepared. I'm going to know, well, I can get Anthony Richardson in.

in the fifth round. I can get Kyler in the sixth or seventh round. I can get Jaden Daniels in the tenth round. Okay, so like I've got... So all three guys, those three are in your... They're in my delicious box of mobile quarterbacks with massive upside. Got it. So other boxes for me.

There is a good friend, J.J. Zacharysen of the show, he did a study a long time ago about nebulous wide receiver cores that don't have one being drafted high. A lot of times, there's value to be had there. And so when I look at

unknown wide receiver hierarchies. We're not exactly sure. You're going to build another box here. I'm going to build another box, but I want them from good offenses. Okay, where you're not sure necessarily who's going to be the dude, but you know it's going to be a good offense. I got Tank Dell in the fifth. Unknown.

No, I get it. The hierarchy is unknown. He's the last drafted of the three. I mean, he's behind Nico and Stephon Diggs. I'm with you on that. I already know the hierarchy, guys. Oh, okay. Time machine. Yeah. Jaden Reed of the Packers. Packers are going to be great. Is it going to be Reed? I don't know. He's in the sixth. I can get him a couple rounds later. He's a 6'11", so almost seventh rounder. Or Rushie Rice. I think the Chiefs offense is going to be great, and you can get him a little later. I want to leave with one of those types. Chris.

quickly touchdowns super important for uh for fantasy football so look at touchdown 10 touchdown potential tight ends Laporta he did it last year Mark Andrews a touchdown machine later in the draft Jake Ferguson at the running back you got Derrick Henry you know he's going to get double digit touchdowns David Montgomery later in the sixth Raheem Morris late yeah not not the coach coach

I think he has a zero touchdown potential. I'd give him one. I think he could sneak in. We are the only podcast that projects touchdowns for coaches. You can find that in the Ultimate Draft Kit. Or, you know, rookies usually prove to be good picks by the end of the year if they're quality players. So, you know, later in the draft, Malik Neighbors, Ladd McConkie, Keon Coleman, like,

I'm so happy Coleman made one of your boxes. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's potential, right? He could be the number one for Josh Allen. He could potentially explode and be terrible. Is this like the dinner, the pre-made dinner meals that have all the different sections in the box? Yes. And you got that little tiny dessert. And you choose what to eat first? Yeah. Well, you always eat the little tiny dessert first.

Right? TV dinners, yeah. Isn't that what we all eat first is a little tiny dessert? I mean, when it was the brownie or the apple one. Oh, the apple, like the little apple. Oh, baby. But yes, so what? And you don't have to be these players in these boxes, but take a look at your draft and be like, this is the type of player I want who qualifies through the draft and so that you've got a game plan. Yeah, makes sense. Number eight. I want to talk about finding the late round running backs that are

can turn into starters for your team. So every year,

We have running backs who are not drafted in the top 24, but they finish in the top 24. I wanted to see is there a path or just some information that can help at least give you an edge at figuring out who are these targets that I need to go after. So over the past five years, we see eight and a half teams without a top 24 running back drafted, which it makes sense because some teams have two guys slip into the top 24, and

And, you know, then there's the other eight. However, from those teams that don't have a top 24 running back drafted, we see an average of just over five running backs finish inside the top 24. Does that make sense?

So I want to make sure everyone's following. So like teams who are guys who are not drafted to be in the top 24, we see five of them on average make it into the top 24. So it's trying to identify or find some signals to identify players that could be the ones that move up. Exactly. And this is why it starts at team level projections. How good do you think an offense is going to be? Last year, DeAndre Swift, who we mentioned he had a –

Hot start. It wasn't great at the end, but it's still a really hot start. Oh, he was a value for fantasy players. James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco. It's hard to remember, but last year those guys were the RB 28, 29, and 30 in ADP. Because you weren't rock solid of, is Pacheco going to keep the job? James Cook. There's questions here. There's questions about the players. You know what there was not questions about?

The team. The Philadelphia Eagles, the Buffalo Bills, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Those are great offenses. That would be a delicious box. Exactly. You know what I'm saying? Sure. And I looked at it, and the thing in common of these guys who make the jump into the top 24 –

Their offenses are finishing as top 14 scoring offenses. So it's identifying these guys, trying to project which offenses are going to be in the top half, and then look at the running backs who aren't being drafted like that. And right now, to me, there are three teams that I'm looking at that I know that they're going to have a high-powered offense. I'm just not sure about who it's going to be at the running back position.

The Cincinnati Bengals. We got Zach Moss. We got Chase Brown. Which one is it going to be? I don't know for sure, but they're both being drafted outside the top 24. The Dallas Cowboys. I've been pushing for Rico Daudo. You guys are a little bit more on the Ezekiel Elliott name, the brand side of that, but I think we're all in agreement. The Cowboys are going to be a very high-powered offense, and then the Chargers...

That one sounds a little bit more strange, but Harbaugh and Giro, they put up high-powered offenses, and they do have a top-tier elite quarterback. So it's just those are three teams that I think are easy to look at. Say them again, the three teams? The Bengals, the Cowboys, and the Chargers. They don't have a top-24 running back in ADP, and yet –

I'll bet that a couple players from those teams are going to finish easily in the top 24. I'll bet that that is a good bet. So you second? All right. All those in favor. Can you bet on bets? Do they let you bet on bets? They let you bet on anything. I will whisper it because I have just like, okay, what if he actually is okay? J.K. Dobbins.

I have abandoned. I thought you said you were going to whisper it. That's J.K. Dobbins. All right. I've had to abandon him because he's coming off the Achilles injury. But things that are progressing, at least the way they're talking about depth charts over in the Chargers, those are the two guys listed. I think they're even listed as co-starters. The Kamani Vidal Sassoon, the hope of this late-round guy.

As of right now, the people watching the team, he's projected to not make the team over Jarrett Patterson. Yeah, working in a salon soon. So I'm more and more open to the idea that Dobbins is a worthwhile pick. It's a good one. Number seven. All right. It's going to be a little bit of a follow-up of a discussion we started yesterday on the tight end rankings. I'm going to title it, Reroll Your Tight End.

But we'll get into what that means. We discuss a lot of the times the offseason, those conversations are around end of season rankings. And sometimes we're even surprised, especially at tight end. Oh, wow, that guy was a top 10 guy at tight end. Top 10 really doesn't mean a lot.

No, it doesn't. Just being inside the top 10 because you're in a 10 to 12 man league and that means you've got one of the worst options if you're at the bottom of that group. There was a year I loved, who was it, Trey Boo Boo? Yeah. Trey Burton. Trey Burton. Oh, unmitigated disaster. Unmitigated disaster. He finishes the tight end six that year.

Like, you can make it sound good, but he was terrible. So a lot of the discussion yesterday was like, okay, you know, Jason in particular, he loves those top five guys. He wants to take the best of them in the draft, and maybe, you know, part of that's going to be waiting to grab the fourth or fifth guy, and that also means you might not get the guy you want. You might have somebody pull the trigger sooner, and you're like, wow, I need to punt the tight end position. I might miss my guy at tight end. What I'm saying with this, this whole, like,

re-roll, re-draft your tight end is something that would have worked really well last year, and that is sometime during the middle of the season. Once we get data on strength of schedule and how teams defend the tight end position, give yourself a chance to redo your tight end position. If you look at the top five tight ends last year by stats, like the end of year top five was Laporta, Ingram, Kelsey, Hawkinson, Kittle. That's how they finished.

the top five tight ends over the back half. So from week nine on, it was Laporta and Ingram. Okay, cool. They're still there. The next three were Najoku, McBride, and Ferguson over the second half of the season. You even had players like Isaiah Likely had monster weeks. Schultz had huge weeks over the back half of the season. If you're a fan of the

If you played Najoku over Kelsey from week nine on, you got four and a half more fantasy points per week playing Najoku over Travis Kelsey. So if you miss your shot on locking in that position, I'm saying make it a point in your brain to say midseason, I'm going to make my move for a tight end. Because what we're not saying in our tight end ranking show is,

You don't need one. That's not the message. Just because you missed the top five is, oh, well, I can settle without a tight end. You win leagues because of great tight end performances. The problem is you think you missed the boat, and I'm saying let's re-roll that. Go back to the drawing board. It's not another draft in the middle of the year, but through a trade, you can identify somebody, take another shot, and that is kind of a luxury you get when you don't draft the top five guy.

in the regular draft is you get the luxury of now I get to pivot. You don't feel obligated. Like if you had Kelsey, you're playing him 100% of those weeks because you have to, even though Njoku was going to outperform him by five points. So it gives you some flexibility. You can go back to the drawing board. You can re-roll the tight end. This is all...

also a great tip for long-term dynasty players. If you listen in the offseason, I don't like drafting rookie tight ends in dynasty. They're much further down than the ADP on my strategy, but I love trading for him later. You couldn't trade for Kyle Pitts early. You could later when he didn't. Trey McBride was like, you could have gotten him

so cheap after his rookie year even a little bit into his sophomore year he was undrafted last year yeah and so it's like yeah trade for these guys i i love that tip for for both redraft just being conscious of it mid-season to make a move for a league winning tight end i think is important number six

I call this one stacks on stacks on stacks on stacks. Yeah, baby. Um, it's, this is a tip and a trick for the foot clan because we want the foot clan to win championships, not just have a great season. We want you to have a great season, but we want you to win championships and stacks are an advantage. Uh,

A quarterback wide receiver stack. It's often thought of for DFS and best ball formats. But people don't think about that for Redraft and Dynasty enough. It's becoming a little bit more common. It needs to be more common. Stacking increases your ceiling, and it also gives you something you desperately need.

correlation. Correlation is your best friend and no one correlates better with your quarterback than the pass catcher on his own team. We did a stick to stacking article. What's that? A stick to stacking article. It looked back at data over the last 20 years, looking at over 5,000 games played in the NFL and a stacked quarterback wide receiver combo

15.3% chance of booming, which is hitting 40 combined fantasy points. An unstacked quarterback-wide receiver combo, only 12%. And that might sound like a small edge, but small edges matter. You know what they do? They stack up. Boston!

That was a swish, Mike. You didn't call it. I didn't call it. I didn't call it. I got it busted. I'm sorry. I don't want third place. I want to win a championship. Stacks help. The best scores often come from a stacked lineup. Just look at last year. The Cowboys stack of Dak and CeeDee Lamb last year had a higher percentage of fantasy championships than any other combination, which I don't like because Andy had them.

How'd it work out? Every championship, I've looked at this in our League of Record. Every championship I have, one, two, three, all three championships. Yeah, you could stop counting there. I can. I know. It was actually on the back of a stack. Yeah. I mean, you go way back to Peyton and Demarius. Last year, Dak and CeeDee. I remember going back to Peyton Manning and Dallas Drake. It's fun. Yeah.

The correlation is so powerful. You want to know why it works? Because when you get into this... Yeah. Okay. I thought there was a player I didn't remember. You said Dallas Drake.

I said Dallas Drake. Did he? Yeah. That's a former NHL player. Dallas Clark tied in for the Colts. Shout out Dallas Clark. Yeah. Dallas Drake. Hey. Last year, when you get to the playoffs, you're playing the best teams, right? It's like, oh, you've got to play the other team that puts up a bunch of points. That combo last year in the semifinals and finals scored 51.5 points and 63.9 points. That's why you won a championship, Andy. So my favorite stacks this year.

There are a couple ways to do it. You can either get your quarterback first. I like double tapping Jalen Hurts, Devontae Smith. If you're at that 3-4 turn, boom, bam, baby. I just made my stack, and I don't have to guess if I get it later. I love both players.

I also think Patrick Mahomes is slightly undervalued this year compared to, you know, last year at least. And you can get Rushie Rice cheap. My backdoor stacks would be if I take T. Higgins, I like combining him with Joe Burrow, Jaden Reed and Jordan Love later in the draft. And then if you're lucky enough, you know, I'm not targeting Tua or Dak personally in my leagues.

But if I'm at the beginning of the draft, if I'm at the two or the three and I end up with Tyree Kill or CeeDee Lamb, you're darn right that when I'm later in the draft, I am now targeting the correlating Dak or Tua. Yeah, that's a nice separator for those guys in that middle tier is to know you have the powerhouse wide receiver. Yeah. All right, we'll take a quick break and come back with our top five.

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All right, we are going to jump in here. Here we go. Number five. All right, I want to talk about quarterbacks and their ADP and the history of that because the quarterback position for fantasy football, it has been, there's been an evolution in the past 10 years. It's quite a timeline. Because when we first started the show,

It was late round QB, which that's another shout out to JJ for opening my eyes to that. You could get a quarterback late. It was actually detrimental to your team to draft a quarterback early when you could just get a guy later, a guy that you know that runs and he's going to give me points or I can stream against bad defenses and make up points. And over time,

The fantasy football community, they're getting wise to this, especially wise to the fact that a quarterback that runs, it is a true cheat code. And now those guys are moving up. Plus, the NFL is changing. And guys that run are now also airing it out. It's no longer Tim Tebow where it's, I need all the running because the passing won't be there. You get guys like Alan Hurts where you're getting a combination. That's why the guys are the super studs.

I took a look back at the past four years because things have really been changing recently, and I wanted to look how safe has quarterback drafting actually been

It's still tough. It is still tough. The hit rate of a top 12 quarterback in ADP, it's at 48%. And when I say a hit rate, I mean a guy finishing within one spot of his ADP. So like your quarterback three, if he finishes the quarterback four, I'm not going to hold that against him. That's fine. That's a fine pick. But if you're a couple spots, I counted that as a bust and you were hitting at 48%.

So then I said, well, is there a better way to look at it where it's not just top 12? Broke them down into three tiers of ADP, QB1 through 4, 5 through 8, 9 through 12. And the reason I did this is because the point, the expected point threshold, it's pretty close for those and they kind of separate.

Drafting a top four QB, hitting at 44%. Okay. That's for the margin of error. That's very good. Quarterback five through eight, that dropped down to 37.5%. That is not so great. And then quarterback nine through 12,

Much, much higher at 62% granted. That's not what you want. No, that's not what you want. And just the expected points for them is it's lower. It's easier to hit a, like if they hit their ADP, it's not like a quarterback five hitting their ADP. And then I thought, well, let's look at this through the lens of ceiling, right? Just ceiling. And I want to see these buckets that I put together, QB one through four, five through eight, nine through 12. How often are they finishing as a top four guy?

The top four ADP quarterbacks, that jumps up to 56%. So it just kind of secures that, yeah, these quarterbacks that we've identified at the top, they've been coming through for us more often than they haven't. QB 5 through 8, that drops to 18%. But then here's where it gets weird. QB 9 through 12, finishing as a top four quarterback,

25% so over the last four years not only has that range of quarterback giving you a safer outcome a safer floor less likely to bust they're also giving you a slight edge of actually jumping into the top four one in four yeah so it's like that's what these QBs five through eight when we're talking about them it's it's just this range of QB where it's so it's nebulous they're not

In the past four years, they haven't hit as often as the later guys. So it's just, again, these are slight edges that we're looking for. And it's the quarterbacks who are in that range. It's Dak, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Jaden Daniels. Like this is a four-pack of QBs that align with this historical data of... Three pocket passers, one with the mobility. Right. And it's just the point being...

Those are quarterbacks that I wanted to target, and this data is just backing that up even more of being willing to bypass those middle-tier guys excluding, I'll take Kyler. He's at QB8. But it's just a slight edge to consider historically. Isn't that nice, man, when you've got your ideas, you've got your priors, and you just get to confirm them? That's nice. Yeah, it's pretty much what life's all about.

Number four. All right. We'll call this build a dynamic duo. And so our ultimate draft kit, we highlight the risk rating for a player. And we talk about upside ratings for a player. And we also talk about the benefits historically of having volatility on your roster, the ability to have a player go out and win you a week.

But I think what's fundamental to that, and when I say build a dynamic duo, is that you need to make sure that you're maintaining a floor on your roster points-wise.

So that those volatile big performances mean something that they're not undermined by an inverse. The, the, the bottom dropping out, canceling each other out. So you can use the ultimate draft kit to do this. And I wanted to highlight some of the kind of combinations that might make sense when placed together on a roster, roster construction wise at different positions. So,

In the first half of the draft, you've got players that we would consider and rank in the UDK as safer, low-risk wide receivers. Devontae Smith has a risk rating of 3. That's very low. Michael Pittman at 3.7. Christian Kirk at 3. If you correlate those risk ratings to how you think about those players, it makes perfect sense, right? They are on the field all the time. They have a good history. They're kind of possession go-to guys for their quarterbacks. Their floor is pretty high.

But there are some other wide receivers that are great combos for those names that have more risk associated with them and more upside. Debo Samuel, he's an 8.5 upside in the UDK. He comes with a 6 risk due to some volatility and injury. So that's a nice player. Maybe if you have a Debo Samuel on your roster, Christian Kirk makes sense later in the draft. Tank Dell, he's a 7.7 upside. We love Tank Dell.

He does contain some risk due to the fact that it's a nebulous situation. Stephon Diggs, how done is he? We know Nico Collins got the bag. Also, Tankdale got hurt last year, and that's something you pay attention to. He's a great player to combine with a Michael Pittman, so you have volatility and upside, but you've got the floor. And then another one would be Devontae Adams. We know Devontae Adams at his best with good quarterback play. If that happens, that is one of the best wide receivers in football.

But he's got a 6.3 risk. He's older, which means that there's a risk due to age, and he's got currently unproven quarterback play or, at best, kind of like low-end starter play with Gardner Minshew. So Adams is a player that we saw last year. He could win you the championship on one week. He can score one point and get shut down by, I think it was, was it LeJarius Need? Yeah.

So building a dynamic duo, setting that floor up so that your high-end players can have success I think is really important. Same thing goes with the running back position. You can go through the UDK. You can look at the risk ratings in the upside and try to find that balance. And a lot of the times you're not going to go into a draft saying, I'm going to ping pong between these. But as the draft is starting to form,

Look at those risk ratings at that point. I've got this guy on my team. The ballers have him at this risk rating with not a lot of upside. I'm going to target a higher volatility player later and build that dynamic duo. Number three. This one's important, guys. Oh, no. See, I like this show in particular because I did not look at anything either of you had prepared. And it's real highbrow stuff. Yeah, it's intellectual. Probabilistically, you're going to really lean on it.

It's pretty much trained medical advice. Yeah. And this tip is take dumps now, not later. I mean, you could translate this to life. This is a life tip. It's applicable to everyone out there. Constipation is the leading cause of death in America. That's true. You come for fantasy football advice, but you're going to stay for health tips from trained medical experts like myself. Is the Falcon still in the studio? No.

He is amazingly, it does appear. He took dumps now. Yeah. We had not later. We had to change his seat because he takes, he takes the mid show and he takes this advice from you very seriously, but here's what take dumps now, not later means I'm

I'm talking about your fab dumps. I'm talking about the difference between holding on to your cold, hard, fake cash. Also, if you're not playing in a fab league, there's a free agent acquisition budget. You get $100 fake dollars or whatever budget your league decides.

And everyone has that, and every week you're going to bid a certain amount on players. This also obviously would apply to a waiver priority system. If you've got a high order early in the season and you got lucky with that, then yeah, you want to spend that capital early, not later. We talk about it. We build a foundation at the draft.

to set you up for success, but you don't win your championship at the draft. That used to be a tip we said all the time because people would care so much about the draft and then they would fall away and maybe not make the roster moves and the waiver wire pickups that they needed to in season. And then they're like, ah, I'm always good, but I never win the championship. This is how you're going to win a championship. You're going to spend your dumps early. Okay? You're going to take them dumps and you're going to take them early. We've also got, you know, look, a little peel back the curtain.

and

We have a new waiver wire tool coming out. It is not talked about. I'm not going to tell you about the ultimate dashboard. I'm not going to do it. No, you would not know about that unless you had been to jointhefoot.com. Right. But if you stay tuned, we've got something really cool that's going to help you take advantage of this. Here's an example. So we had this massive article done by one of our former great writers, Matt DeSorbo. He was formerly great.

Right. Now he's not great. Well, he's no longer with us, so he's not great anymore. If you leave the footballers, yeah, he's still great. You're a former league player. You're a former league player. He's pretty great. Come back! But he did all the data, and the truth is week one breakouts have a higher fantasy point per game average. This isn't just, oh, you get him more weeks, which is also true.

but they actually average more fantasy points. And he wrote that back in 2021. We went and did the research. Can I jump in really quick? I just want to reiterate what you said because I don't want it to get lost in this dump. Sure. Which is this advice is if you spin the fab early on players early in the season, a lot of the times we have come out and said –

One of the advantages is you get them for more games during the year, but you're saying... I'm saying they're better players. They literally score more fantasy points regardless of the amount of weeks you have them. That's right. That's exactly right. This article was old, so we went back and looked at, like, okay, well, was it still true? Is it still true last year? Take a look at the Week 1 and Week 2 pickups from last year. Kyron Williams...

was 6% rostered on sleeper in week one. Puka Nakua, 10% rostered in week one. Nico Collins, Sam Laporta, Rushie Rice. Those were the pickups in week one. Week two, you still had Kyron Williams somehow out there in 63% of leagues. Devon Achan, Nico was still available. Tank Dell, Jaden Reed. I mean, these are players that helped win championships. Tern Ferguson.

Now let's take a look at some fab dumps later on, you know, the best available fab dumps later. I feel like I'm about to be attacked. You're not because it's not on the list. But you got demarcatoed. I'm already demarcatoed. I mean, you dumped a bunch of fab later. Oh, the fab dumpster. Yeah.

And so, you know, week eight. You owe me internet money. Week eight, you're spending your fab dumps on Craig Reynolds and Roshon Johnson and Jordan Mason. Week nine, you got Zach Charbonnet and Daryl Henderson, Daryl.

John Dotson, you know, Pop Douglas. Like, hey, he was okay. But, like, these are not week-winning, you know, guys, league-winning guys. So when you start the season, and this is also kind of like a little tip B, is at the end of your draft, grab guys. Dump plus. Dump plus. You can grab players who –

you know you're fine to cut after week one. You're going to see and you're going to know they hit that expectation or they didn't, like a Keon Coleman. That might be someone where you go, oh, he's not the starter? And you're okay with it or whoever it is, but you want to make those transactions and go hard in the paint. And we'll bring this back up when it's week one and week two and tell you, don't hold on to your FAP.

Yeah, anecdotally, I know that this has been very beneficial in the past. And I've always targeted it because I know I have more weeks of that player and more guarantees, more players to trade, right? You have them early. You've got more assets to trade. It's good advice. All right. Number two. I want to talk about. Nope, you got to name it.

The importance of offense is what I will title this, which it does. It piggybacks a little bit what I was talking about, finding the late round running backs that could sneak into the top 24. This is more about maybe there are players that are early in ADP that I should avoid because there is a big red flag on their offense that

that maybe I'm pushing it to the side and maybe I need to let it wave in the wind and really alert me to what is going on. It's hard to be a good fantasy player on a bad offense. That seems like a common sense thing. But when I dove into it, to me, it's way worse than you really think about if you're on a bad offense. Last year, nine wide receivers were drafted as top 36 wide receivers.

Their teams finished as a bottom 10 offense. So the year went bad for that team. Of those nine players, only two of them met or exceeded their ADP value. In 2022, 12 wide receivers were drafted as top 36 guys who, unfortunately, they ended up on bad offenses. Three of the 12 met or exceeded their ADP value over the past four years,

Only 24% of the guys who end up on bad teams become a draft day value. Go to the running back position. Last year, nine running backs drafted as top 24 running backs.

end up on bottom 10 scoring offenses. Two of those nine met their ADP. In 2022, it was two of eight. It's the exact same percentage of guys who are on bad offenses that fail you for their draft day ADP, 24%. And it needs to be built into your process of looking at an offense, top-down approach, not just the player. Look at the top-down approach. And, yes, there's ways to overcome it.

You can volume your way there. Look at Brees Hall or Derrick Henry. They were on bad offenses, but their volume was so high that they were able to overdo it. But fantasy football, we're looking at probability. We're trying to find a slight edge that might tip me off on is this player doomed to be a draft day bust and not return the value that I am selecting them in the draft.

Now, look, identifying the bottom 10 offenses, that can be very difficult. I get that. But there are definitely teams out there where you know, you know that it would be an absolute shock for them to become or to jump out of the bottom 10, like the Patriots, right? The Broncos.

The Raiders, the Steelers. I feel pretty confident that at the end of the year, these will be. Did you say the Giants? The Giants are in my list as well. I'm not trying to say I know what the bottom 10 will be. I'm going to identify all bottom. It's just the bottom 10. No, I know a few teams that are probably going to end up there, and if their players are being drafted high, maybe I want to look elsewhere. Devontae Adams. Yeah, I hear you.

Like I said, Devontae Adams can volume his way out, but he was one of those disappointments. He was ADP wide receiver eight. He already was a disappointment last year. Yeah, he finished as 11, so you're like, okay, but that's not what you drafted. I think like 12, 13 years ago when I was playing fantasy, without all the data, without the fundamental knowledge that you're spreading,

I came to a draft one year and I was like, I'm just, I'm going to draft players on good teams. Like, I went into it. That was my entire draft strategy as a new player was one year I just said, I'm taking players on good teams. And it was just this overarching thought that like,

One, I mean, you don't want to be kind of just praying all the stars align every week, right? You get out there and you're like, oh, my gosh, Aiden O'Connell. Just make a couple passes. Just make a couple. Just get it going. You know, having to make that bet over and over and over again, it's very, very hard. All right. We have we got one more tip for you because otherwise it would just be nine. So here you go. Number one. All right. We're all going to do this together.

This is going to be kind of like a group exercise. We're going to say the title at the same time? No, no, no, no, no. I'm just saying that the listenership needs to, you know, I'm going to explain what this is, and I want us to practice this together. Okay. We're going to call the number one tip and trick this year. Start fresh. Start fresh. Yeah, you did it. Are we going to unburden ourselves here? I'm going to play you some music, and we're going to let go of the pain from last year, and we're going to let go of the burns.

And we're going to let go of the baggage. Mike, DeAndre Swift, histories. We're going to not let it hold us back for making the wrong choices because they hurt us last year. And so I'm going to play just some smooth jazz. And we'll just take a moment. Okay. And we'll just. We're going to reflect. We're just going to let it go. Ooh. Wait. Yeah, let the lights come down low. Let it go. Let it go. Who hurt you in fantasy last year? Doesn't matter. Let it go. You are healed.

You are free of that burden. Did that work, Mike? Is it starting to... It is. I didn't know this song went this long. I have been talking to... A therapist. Yes. Yeah. But Kyle the Borgogon about this type of a thing. And it's like players that you should...

Forgive them. Let it go. It's not easy. It is not. I mean, there's a big one for me. Okay. Let's work through it. It's T. Higgins. Nice. I think I got it. Oh, there's the lights again. He's not going to hurt you. I got to forgive him. I think that using the last unfortunate injuries of the past couple years against him. You're ready to move forward? Yeah. I've worked through the pain of the offseason.

And I'm ready to be hurt again. There's only one person in every league that should not start fresh, that should hold on to the past, and that should make the rest of their league mates eat it. Yeah. And that is the champion of every league. Forget nothing. Live in the past. Forget nothing. Rub it in all year. By the way, Mike, are you a champion? I sure am. Congratulations on that, champ. Are you a champ? I am also a champion. Congratulations. Woo!

Going to hold on to the past, baby. I hate you guys. Yeah, well, that makes sense. Do you want us to start a third league that you can win? Hey, first time in 10 years I didn't win a game. So you eat it. Every time. All right. We have two more shows this week. One's the mock draft. One's the My Guys episode. Don't miss it. Goodbye. Bye.

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.