Tua Again, NFL Week 2 Either/Or, and Million-Dollar Picks With Mike Lombardi and Joe House
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Coming up, all the week two NFL subplots, some million dollar picks and a lot more next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I

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Coming up in a little bit, I'm going to talk to Mike Lombardi. We're going to play a little game of either or all the stuff that happened in week one, which now feels like it could go either way as we head into week two. What do you believe? We're covering all of that. And then Joe house is coming on to continue million dollar picks. We had some success last week. We'll see if we can keep it going.

I just watched Bill's Dolphins, which a game I was really excited about. And I got to be honest, after the way the Pats looked last week, as you know, who knows? AFC East, is anybody good? Maybe the Pats could sneak in. I thought the Pats were going to be the worst team in the league. So the Bills just killed the Dolphins and they look great. James Cook looked great. They did that whole running tight end thing and just ball control and Josh Allen doing his thing. And they were awesome. And they were running away with the game.

Tua was terrible, including through one of the worst pick sixes of his career. And it looked like the storyline after the game was going to be, here we go to a prime time or the bills and or the bills. And it's just, it just never seems to go well in certain situations for him. But because he was playing so bad, he ends up taking a big chance on a fourth, fourth thing, goal play in the red zone.

and does something he never did last year. Last year, they were so careful about him not taking big hits. This year, he's trying to get a first down and ends up taking a big hit from Tamar Hamlin of all people. And immediately, even as he's hitting Hamlin, I'm thinking, oh God. And then of course, there it is, concussion. He's doing the fencing position. And it was just awful. And it changed the tenor of the game. And you flash back to 2022 where he had two reported concussions, but

Look, he had three concussions that year. The week three one, which they claimed was some sort of weird back issue, but we all thought it was a concussion in the moment. And then whoever thought that was backed up by the fact in week four, he ended up with another concussion. And then we didn't know if he was going to come back all year. And then in week 16, he came back, he was playing again and got a third concussion. And then in the whole off season, wondering if he's going to play again or not. He ends up, he comes back, puts on weight. They're more careful with them.

And he plays well enough that he gets a max contract, but now fourth concussion. And now we're in this weird area that nobody really knows how to govern with concussions. How many is enough? How many is enough to tell a player to stop? Are you allowed to tell a player to stop? It's the thing that we just didn't think about up until the mid 2000s, you know, where you go back, you can watch on YouTube.

You can watch these players in the pregame, the little montage when a pregame Sunday show starts or Madden in 2002. And the sport was super violent and it was celebrated. And then at some point during the 2000s, that started to shift. There was that famous Pittsburgh-Baltimore game.

When a bunch of guys got carried off the field and we all started looking at each other going, wait, are we, are we complicit in this? Like we love football. Like all these guys are getting crushed and concussion research starts. Chris Nowinski starts doing some great stuff. He's been on this podcast. You should follow his Twitter feed. He was the one that was tweeting tonight right after the Tua thing happened, the play, and

And he's like, look, that's a clear fencing. His fist is clenched. His arm is out. And I know from reading and following Chris all these years, you kind of know the signs of when it was a bad concussion, right? There's like the concussion you don't really know you had, but it turns out you had. There's concussion where you get your bell rung. And then there's the fencing one. And then there's the, I just got knocked out cold. So this was like the second or worst one that you could have. And

How do you govern this? I have no idea. The first time this really changed was that KC Indianapolis game in the playoffs when Jamal Charles got knocked out and didn't come back in. And I remember writing about that at the time. Something is different. In the old days, Jamal Charles would have come back in because it's in the playoffs and now we're watching it. And even if you had money on the Chiefs or you're rooting for the Chiefs, you're going, please don't come back in. So it's been about 10, 11 years since

We really started thinking about it from the players' perspective and really started to all collectively go, hey, whoa, this isn't right. And it feels like we're in that zone with two and he's not the only one. Like Denzel Ward on the Browns got his fifth concussion in training camp. How many is enough? What's the number? We don't really know. And we leave it up to the players. And this happens not just in football, but in UFC. It happens in wrestling. There's a ton of concussions. In boxing, you get knocked out and...

You know, you get little tiny ones, your brain learns to figure out the violence of it. But this Tua thing is really tough because it feels like this has to be the last one. And if he comes back and he gets another one, I don't know how the dolphins in the league can keep getting it going. Every time you get a concussion, it's much easier to get the next one. And we just now have a ton of research about CT, about repeated concussions, about how bad it is for you physically down the road. And

allegedly as a society, we're supposed to care about this stuff. So just a brutal night for the Dolphins overall, because Tua is going to play again in 10 days, potentially. I don't think he should play. There's no rule in place that says he can't, but he shouldn't, right? He shouldn't.

So how's it going to play out? It's just another thing we'll be talking about. Somehow the NFL in September, it's always like these subplots that end up taking over the first couple of weeks and they're always a little unseemly. And this one felt unseemly tonight because it brought us back to 2022. And I don't think he should have come back after the two concussions in two weeks, but we'll see how they handle it. Pretty brutal night overall.

It obscured the fact that the Bills looked really good again, that they had a pass rush, that their ground and pound game combined with the stuff with Kincaid, that Allen looked really good, that they just, you know, a team that I didn't pick for the playoffs because I just felt like at some point we have $61 million in cap money. You've lost a bunch of guys. At some point you have to have a transition year. I thought the Jets were going to be the AFC East playoff team.

Now it looks like it's going to be the Bills, but that's the great thing about week two. By week five, it might be somebody else. Maybe it'll be the Patriots. Who knows? Anyway, weird night in the NFL. We're going to bring in Pearl Jam and then Mike Lombardi next.

All right. I wasn't able to have this guy on before this season, but he's here now. Our old friend, Michael Lombardi. Week one in the books. Week two coming. This is one of my favorite. We text a lot during this time because there's a lot of stuff. Yeah. We either know for sure that people don't fully know yet, but we feel like we do. Or there's stuff you think, but you want to see it for another week. And then there's this stuff that's just, I have no effing idea. Here's one thing I know for sure, Lombardi.

Malik Willis is terrible playing quarterback and he's going to start, he's going to start week two for the Packers. And I was waiting. I thought Monday they'd sign somebody and Tuesday it's like, Oh, when's the Tannehill announcement coming? Then Wednesday. And now it's Thursday and they're just rolling with it. They're going to play Malik Willis, a guy that both of us watch play quarterback in real games. He started three, he went one and two, it didn't go well. And what are they doing? What are they thinking?

All right, so let's go back. We'll touch on Malik in a second. They tried to... Ryan Tannehill and Matt LaFleur have the same agent. So there was conversations, but I think Tannehill's like, I'm not going somewhere unless somebody pays X, Y, or Z. And so that ended that conversation. And now...

somebody in that building, I don't know who it was, saw a tape of Malik Willis, and I don't know what tape they watched, that said, hey, he's going to be a really good backup one day. Like, I don't know where that was. I'll be in search of it. I mean, it's like finding the lock that sponsored that tape. But let's have a walk down memory lane and talk about one of the greatest games in NFL history, a game that should be

in the Hall of Fame, a game that Malik Willis participated in. It was in early November in Kansas City. It was a Sunday night game. I'm sure Al's tie was perfectly laced up there. No, Al wasn't probably. He might have been doing that. But anyway, so Kansas City plays Tennessee. Malik starts. And from the beginning, it's a disaster. Malik attempts 16 passes in the game. He completes five.

One of them was a 48 yarder to the tight end on the screen on the first drive of the game. He came 80 yards in that game. Now, as bad as that was, the great Mike Vrabel, one of the great head coaches in our league, got the Kansas City Chiefs, who won the Super Bowl that year, to overtime. And remember, it took two Patrick Mahomes runs scrambling out of the pocket to get the game to overtime.

Like, that's how, and so, like, I don't know how this works for the Green Bay defense, and Matt LaFleur ain't make Vrabel, I can tell you that. Like, how do you do this? And so, you sit there and say, here's what they all say whenever they get a quarterback like Malik. Well, we'll run a lot of boots, we'll run a lot of nakeds, we'll give him a lot of easy throws. The problem is, he can't make an easy throw.

Yeah. I remember that game as the Mike Vrabel is one of the five or six best coaches in the league audition tape. And of course, he's unemployed right now. Of course he is. I think that game belongs in Canton. I mean, that's one of the finest coaching to take as good a coach as Andy Reid is with his Patrick Mahomes and Kelsey was a better player. And they had guys and to get that game to overtime when basically they were playing 10 on 11.

I mean, do you realize this? I've said this many times. Malik Willis is the only quarterback I've ever seen in the history of my career that got benched during a drive in a preseason game. Rabel had had enough and basically sent another quarterback out there and said, get him out because he was screwing up everybody else. Well, how about they traded him for a seventh round pick? What? Oh, a month ago. I know the Packers probably saw him as a reclamation project, but

You know, if they go 0-5 to start the season or they go 1-4, I think they kind of have to go 2-3 in the first five if Love's really going to be gone a month. Maybe they think they can push it back sooner. But we've seen seasons where if the team doesn't fix it in the first month, it becomes impossible to come back. What do you think? It's 9 or 10 wins for the seventh seed in the NFC? I think it'll be 9. I think there's too much competition. That's what I think, too.

I think, I mean, I don't know. We'd get to the bears later, but I don't know where this all comes from, but look, I don't know how you win games. I mean, if Indianapolis doesn't go up there and if Malik Willis is the starter, now the floor is couching as if they're going to go eventually to that. There's a chance that love could play. I don't see how that is, but maybe he, maybe it wasn't as bad as we thought, you know, maybe there's not any swelling, but,

But I mean, if they if Indy doesn't go up there and win by 10 points, then something's really wrong with Indy, which I think something is really wrong with Indy. But Green Bay, I don't know. Look, it's so interesting when you follow that this whole quarterback carousel. So Malik Willis and Bo Nix were both at Auburn. Bo Nix won the starting job. Malik transfers to Liberty. Right. Sean Clifford, the third string quarterback at Green Bay, was at Penn State along with the great Will Levis.

Levis couldn't beat him out. He's third string in the green Bay. Meanwhile, Levis is talking about being the starting quarterback and turning the Titans franchise around. Like somebody makes sense of all this for me. Like it lost. Bill Walsh would have said, wait a minute. He didn't beat out Sean Clifford and we don't like Sean Clifford. Like why do we think we're going to make him into a good player? He started three games. They scored 48 points in the three games. He had 11 first downs.

in the three games. Passing first downs. Got sacked 10 times. I think those numbers are painful to listen to, but watching them is more painful. Yeah, I don't get it. You know, you mentioned...

The Indianapolis defense, because that's another piece of this game. Because I'm going to do a million dollar picks later with House and just spoiler alert, I just feel like this is a once in a lifetime chance to bet against Malik Willis. It seems like we're heading that way. And Indy's minus three. And the reason they're minus three is because their defense, Houston ran all over it. But this is what I love about week one heading into week two, where

You think certain things because of what happened in week one, but maybe some other things are true that you don't fully realize yet. And one of the things with Indy's D and you've been, you've been super critical of them, Gus Bradley, vanilla scheme, all that stuff. And I totally get that. But what if Houston's offense is just awesome?

And it's like, we either have to give up this. It's almost like San Francisco against the Jets. We either have to give up this or this. So we're going to give up this and hopefully you don't kill us with this. And San Francisco's like, cool, we're going to run all over you. And Houston, it almost felt like they were more comfortable. You want to just run Joe Mixon? Cool. We don't want to give away big plays. We're afraid of Stroud. And if you want to gash us that way, I mean, they stayed in the game. They only lost by two. So I guess my question is,

Is Indy's defense that bad or is Houston's offense that good? Okay, so Indy's defense is bad when they go against a coach who's very good at understanding what they're doing in their scheme.

And these defense can look better at times when they go against a, not a good offensive coordinator, but slower understood what they were doing. And your analogy there, they didn't take away Nico Collins. Like if, if Gus Bradley would have worked for Al Davis from the time the season ended until that first game, he would every day, Al Davis would have called him on the phone and said, what are we planning on for doing for Nico? Like we can't let Nico Collins beat us. And of course, Nico Collins beat us. I get the theory, let Joe Mixon run on it.

But one of those Nico Collins plays, he had, I mean, he caught a pass with two guys draped all over him for like 50 yards. I don't know what else you can do in that situation. It's the Belichick in and out coverage. Belichick hates that, you know, you got him, I got him, nobody got him. Right. And so he just ran, he split, he split it. So,

I don't think Indy wants to win with their defensive line. And this whole theory of Bradley's defense is about if we have four great defense alignment, we'll win the game. That's not working anymore. You don't have four great defense alignment. I mean, you're going to draft. You need a draft from Canton, not from the draft. So look, I think Houston's really good. I think you're right that Houston is good. I think they're a little bit better defensively.

based on Indy because there's so much that they know about one another. But I mean, look, Stroud made a couple throws that were big time throws that I didn't think he would make. I mean, the throw on third night at the end of the game was as good a throw as you're going to make. But to me, Indy's defense, anytime they play a good team who knows how to run the ball against them, who understands how to attack them, I don't think they're good enough. Okay, but what if they're playing Malik Willis?

Well, that's where, okay. So here's what worries me. Here's what worries me. That they, you would like, if, if I'm in that building, I'm saying to Gus, Gus, we can't let them run bootlegs. We can't run on my naked. And if you have to get into a short yardage defense on first and 10, no matter what they put on the field, right. Let's go. Let's go nine in the box. Can we put 11 in the box? There was a game. There was a game when I was a kid, I was 13 years old.

I was 11 years old and the Packers were playing my favorite team, the Washington Redskins. And George Allen was the coach. And the Green Bay Packers had Lynn Dickey, a quarterback, and their best player was John Brockington. He was the running back. And I'll never forget this game. It was a playoff game. It was an RFK stadium. And George Allen put five defensive linemen on the field.

It was the first time anybody ever done it. He put five down and he said to John Brockington, you run the ball. He had 13 carries for nine yards in the game.

And so, but that's what great coaches do. They say, okay, I know this is what you're going to, this is the only way you can win the game. I'm going to take that away from you. That's what I would do if I was at Indy. I would say, okay, I dare you to run the ball, but these guys are scheme related. Like when you watch the Jets play 49ers, Kyle got in a formation where, where it's unbelievable. The Jets had a guy lined up in the A gap of the guard. And they're

And the next player was out at the outside shoulder of the tackle. There's a bubble that's as big as anybody to run through. Like, but of course the 34% winning percentage coach of the Jets, Robert Sala, he made no adjustments to it. He was watching the game like I was. So I think to me, we give so much credit for these guys making adjustments when these coaches are getting younger and younger and less and less about in-game adjustments and more about more scheme. What can we do? Like they're not watching the game.

Well, I mean, solid does have eight kids, so it's not like he's not prolific. I mean, he's got that going for him. Yeah. I heard he's got a great golf game too. The, uh, the green Bay Philly game. Cause love gets hurt at the end. It throws the green Bay situation in flux and that's all anyone talked about after, but it was also a really interesting game. It was on a shit field. It's in Brazil. Um, both teams alternately look good for stretches, uh,

What did you see from Green Bay in that game before love got hurt to make you think either they're a contender or they aren't? Because I was going into the season thinking they were either the second or the third best team in the NFC. And I left the game before love got hurt going, I don't know, maybe they're below San Francisco and Philly and Detroit. Maybe they're in the four to six range.

I left that game thinking that maybe I've over-evaluated their talent on defense because I've always felt like they were better on defense than they really were. And they didn't look good on defense to me. They look slow. They didn't look explosive. I mean, they've got some good edge rushers, but I thought Philly, who I don't think Philly's offensive line is the same as they were in the past, but I thought, you know, torching your best corner for an 80-yard touchdown or 60-yard touchdown, I mean, you can't allow that to happen. I

I think Green Bay, I think Green Bay was overvalued. I initially thought the way you did, but as the summer went on and I went back and watched the tape, you know, this is a team that lost to Tommy DeVito, right? This is a team that came home against Tampa and lost to Baker Mayfield the next week.

So I think they've got, and love is inconsistent at times. He will miss the strike zone. So I kind of felt like they would be a wild card. I never thought they could challenge Detroit for the North. I really didn't. At the end of the day, I thought they weren't good enough. And they're young. I mean, this is the other problem. They're so young that it's,

That it's hard to, you know, they go, I mean, they probably spent the least amount of cap money of any team in the league because they did spend a lot this year because they signed Love. But they're so young. Now, they've got great receivers. Don't get me wrong. The Eagles, I think the other issue is if it's a better field, you know, I don't know what happens. The Eagles can't, don't leave Brazil thinking the Eagles defense is better than it was last year. Like, I'm not sure that's right.

Yeah, and the Packers receivers, I didn't think had a very good game compared to what their talent is. But I look at these, House and I talked about this last week. Sometimes I wonder with these overseas games, if you just throw them out.

They're almost like the Thursday games where it's just like, it's too weird. It's, I mean, that game was 10 hours away. The field was shit. It was a Friday night. Everything about it was weird and maybe you throw it away, but then love gets hurt anyway. I think the one thing that jumped out from the Eagles side is just, oh yeah, Saquon Barkley's really good. Like, why were we overthinking this? This guy's better than DeAndre Swift. Stop.

Poor John Mara. I mean, don't you? Now, how about poor John Mara's weekend this weekend, the owner of the Giants? He's got to go take the train down to Washington and hope he can beat that shitty team in Washington. I don't know what House thinks of them, but they're terrible. They have no secondary. Well, they're defense is atrocious.

it's atrocious, right? So now he's going to go down there and he's going to pray he wins. So then he's going to take the train back home and then Monday night he's going to sit in his nice, cozy, comfy chair in his living room and have to watch another Saquon Barkley parade. I mean, like, and he saw it coming. I mean, he saw this coming. Well, at least he has the clip, which we talked about on Sunday night was...

like Vito Corleone in the, in the conference room with all the people, I'm going to hold some people responsible in this room. If he gets hit by a lightning bolt, if he hangs himself in his jail cell, that's basically what he was saying. I'm going to blame some of these people in here. I'm going to blame some people in this room. You're going to be fucking out. Um, but he, uh, you know, that was probably the best player in their team. And so, yeah, I mean, look, he, you know, he ran the ball effectively. Uh,

I didn't think Hurts, I mean, Hurts throws two interceptions. I worry about the Eagles defense because if Detroit, if you can block Philly, you're going to throw the ball to Philly. And you can't get away with Zach Braun and Nige Dean at linebacker. They're going to have to make some moves. To me, now, I agree. Don't panic on it. Those games you got brought, that field was so shitty. I don't understand why we went to Brazil and there was only like 48,000 people in the stands. I think if we're going to go somewhere like that,

shouldn't there be a hundred thousand in the, in the joint? Totally agree. And they didn't even know they're cheering like kickoffs. They didn't know what was going on. If you were the giant, right. Yeah. Go somewhere. That's also not that far away. Um, if you're the giants, when do you start thinking about what can we get for Dexter Lawrence? Oh boy. I think if you're the giants, you know, you're not going to, you paid them, uh,

well, do you want to give the giants more draft picks after they picked Evan Neal? Well, I just assume every, everyone's gone. Sam Hankey draft picks. It's like giving Sam draft picks. I mean, like shit, you want to give him, but he had all these picks. He couldn't pick anybody. Uh,

Yeah, but I just assume everyone's gone. I mean, everyone, maybe not Dayball, but everybody else will be gone after this year, right? Well, I think to me, you've got to entice whoever they hire if they hire a next coach. Look, they're a 36% win percentage team since Tom Coffin walked out the building.

I mean, and John Mara is a really nice person. And I think they do a horrible job of evaluating themselves. I think one of the things I think we have to learn in sports, and I learned this when I was in the league, I think you know it too. When you let hard knocks in your building, when you let them in your building, you better be really good at your job. Because if you're not and the fans see that you're not and you start losing, you're going to lose your job.

I'm trying to think of a single scenario where it would make sense to do that. The only time, like Belichick did those Do Your Job, those documentaries where they followed the team for a year. But at that point, he'd won Super Bowls. He really cares about the history of the NFL. And I think he wanted people to document. He also let people write books about them and things like that. If you're a 6-11 team,

or you're the giants, or you're like the bears who you haven't done anything yet and you've got a Ricky QB, why the fuck do I want cameras around? Why do I want people to videotape stuff? Why do I want sound bites, especially in social media era? Because you think you're good. The answer to the question is you think you're good. You think what you're doing is good. Like, I think it exposed the giants for incompetence.

They had no plan. They had no model. That's not how you run a team. I'm insulted as a personnel guy who spent my life in the NFL thinking that Joe Shane did what most people do. That's not how you run an NFL team. That's if a guy was in a bar at Biggie's in North Jersey. That's how he would run the team, not how a professional would run the team. So when you let them in, right? Do you remember the one where, I love this scene, when Herm Edwards was sitting there, they had the camera on him, Dick Curl, his confidant,

who was his game manager, who could screw up everything for him. You know, Dick Curl was like, you know, throw it here when you shouldn't throw it. It was like, and so he's sitting there in his office and he's pondering whether he should shot Damon Hurd or Brady Coyle. And like, you know that neither one's any good. So it doesn't matter who you should start. But to me, once the Kansas City fans saw that there,

They lost all confidence in their team. And that's what happens to the Giants. You think those fans in the Meadowlands believe what they saw from Shane and they saw from their front office that they had any confidence? Then their best player comes, Lawrence, the best player in the history of the franchise comes out and says, I can get 22 guys and beat this team.

I think Card Knocks, the risk reward, the seesaw is like 95% risk, 5% reward. Like I still remember the first one ever. It was the Ravens one. It was after they'd won.

And Brian Billick was the coach and they had, and I remember I wrote about it for ESPN way back when, and they took out like 10 of my best jokes, but, um, it was Brian Billick just blowharding it out of his mind. And at one point he was on a hammock and he's reading like some, you know, success book.

And just like blowharding and you're watching going, does this guy realize they're filming this? This guy realized like this is going to be on television, this conversation. I would never do it. I just, I don't understand the upside. Especially if you're a team that hasn't really proven anything. But when you're the Giants, it's not like you're getting the fans more fired up. It's not like you're selling more tickets. You're not selling more merchandise. There's no upside.

Right. And this week, week two of the season, I mean, this is if Dave Ball goes down there and loses this game, they already have no fan base. I mean, Daniel Jones looks like David Carr now. He's just afraid to get hit. He just got hit so much he can't do it. I feel like that was almost insulting to David Carr, though. It probably is. I mean, look, I think they should win. I mean, if I had any guts and if I had to pick five games, I would probably take the Giants plus the points because they're

You know, you got to take five, but I can understand why you can't. I mean, like, like, but I think to me, they should be the Malik neighbors before we came on. It's rumored. He might've hurt himself in practice today. I don't know how bad that is. So, uh, but look, I think when you let them in your building, you better be damn sure you control. I said, you know, I'm up at NFL films every Tuesday with Belichick doing his pod. And I asked Ken Rogers, the guy who does the hard knock stuff. I said,

I said, Ken, if that's what they showed us, what do you have on the floor? Like, what did you cut out? And he just laughed. I mean, like, I guess they didn't cut anything out, Bill. They must not cut anything out. Like, if that's what they're showing us, how bad could the other stuff be? If I was the GM, I would have definitely cut out the Saquon Barkley conversation with my owner, basically. Like, you're fucking fucked if this does work out. Let's take a break. I want to talk about the two New York football coaches.

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Who's 18 and 34 career. Who's one of the 20 worst coaches of all time who have coached over 50 games. So you have him on the jet side going into Tennessee in the all-time trap game. It's even got the three and a half point trap line. There's just...

caution flags and the lanes are moving to one lane. There's construction workers on the road. Like nobody wants you to keep going down this road with the jets. They had, you know, all kinds of buzz before the year I fell for it. I picked them against San Francisco. I bet on them. I bet I'm going to win the division. Um, and they, uh, just got outcoached and run over and now they're playing Tennessee. So you have that. And then you have day ball and the giants where it's scapegoat time.

which we've seen this over and over. We see it. The Lakers do it every year or two years. Palenka's out. I don't know what Darvin Ham's doing. It's like, you picked the fucking players. So it's Darvin Ham's fault. It's Frank Vogel's fault two years ago. It was Luke Walton's fault six years ago. But somehow you're still here. So it's always the coach what's going on. So the Giants... So Dayball will be the scapegoat. I know you're friends with them. But how early can you fire a coach during an NFL season? Like, what is...

What's crazy? Is it crazy to do it in the first five games? Like you've just gone through preseason, training camp, everything? Well, we mentioned George Allen earlier. He got fired in preseason.

You know, Don, uh, Carl Rosenblum fired him in preseason one year. Uh, look, I, I think you have to give it some time, right? I mean, cause oh, and two can turn around it. You know, I think to me it's when the coach loses the locker room. And I think to me that hard knocks has made it very challenging. Now, you know, just if the giants win this week, doesn't make them a good team. Let's be clear. They're not getting, I don't think they get to their five win total because it, when Sam Darnold goes 99 yards on you,

and you've got $8 billion in your defensive line and you can't get close to him, you've got deeper problems than just Brian Dayball, right? Look, Tom Coughlin left. Do you remember the scene when Coughlin left? I mean, he walked right by John Maurer after the press conference. He was shaking his hand. He was pissed. Do you remember that? And so they fire Coughlin for Ben McAdoo, McAdoo for Pat Shermer, right? Pat Shermer for Joe Judge, Joe Judge for Dayball. That's four in a row.

You know, what happens to me when they're... By the way, three doozies before day ball. I mean, that was really the trifecta. Three guys that had no business being a head coach. I mean, no business being a head coach. And never got a head coach job again after that and never will.

Pat Shermer's calling plays at Colorado. He's the offense coordinator. Joe Judge is at Ole Miss. But I mean, like, I have no idea. But somebody, what happens in teams when desperation comes in is when exactly the scenario that you said with Palenka, when there's no more buffer between somebody, there's no more, I can't blame this guy or we need this coach to come in. Dave all got hired to save Daniel Jones, right? Well, that's not working.

as I've said on my pod, I mean, I love Brian. He's a great guy. But Brian was in Miami. They were terrible at quarterback. When they were terrible at quarterback at the Jets, Brian was there. When they were terrible at quarterback in Cleveland, Brian, I mean, you can't make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Like you've got to have a good player. And when he went to Buffalo, he kind of got his career back and that's how he became a head coach. So,

I think the Giants, I mean, this is, to me, this is where you have to have an honest conversation with yourself. Are we really good? Are we set up to win? I don't think, I've been saying this now, Bill, for five years, the Giants haven't been set up to win since Coughlin left. They have no identity. They just, they just, they look like the Giants when I was growing up in the seventies, where no, where I was at Hofstra and the only game you could watch were the Giants and the Jets. Talk about a troubled childhood, you know? So I think it's hard on them. And then,

My man, Bobby Sala. I mean, look, I think they still have a good team. Big shot, Bob. By the way, you can take big shot, Bob, if you want to take that one. Take it. Take big shot, Bob. You can have it. I mean, my Lord, I don't understand how you can be part of a Johnson and Johnson pharmaceutical world and think that this guy is going to lead your team in the promised land. Meanwhile, you know, I mean, we could say this about everybody, but

He can't make it. He just stands on the sideline. I don't even make adjustments, but he came out this week and told everybody that being O and one with Aaron is a lot better than being one and O without. Okay, great. And he's going to fix the defense, but here's what I think what happens. Here's what happens with people. They don't pay attention. How many, take a guess. How many games big shot Bob's defense gave up over 130 yards rushing last year? Five.

Try eight, eight. Now, if you're the greatest defense since the history of the 2000 Ravens, you may give up 200 yard games, right? You're not giving up any. But of course, naturally, they gave up eight. People have run the ball on New England. The second, third game of the year ran the ball up and down the field and when they beat them, like, I don't want to hear that this is, they've got some talented players.

But this isn't a defense that just doesn't stone everybody. Like they're going to have a hard time. And they're, and you know, what's gotten lost in all this is nobody talks about how bad the Jets offense is in terms of how basic it is. It's day one West Coast install. I mean, it's not complicated at all. I mean, the first third down was why stick? Like they run that over here at Ocean City High School.

I thought one of the reasons I thought that might be better is because Rogers can do so much on the offensive side. Well, Sal, the one thing we know he can do is coach a defense and then their defense looks like complete crap. He's like Gus Bradley, though. They don't have anything on their call sheet. Like in that game, the way that Kyle attacked him,

The way Kyle attacked him, if you listen to what Belichick was saying on the Manning podcast, you know, it was interesting. There were two things going on there. The Manning podcast was talking about, Bill was talking about the C-gap runs. But then when you went to Troy Aikman, Troy was saying, well, they're running inside and they had these stats. Well, that's because the guy collecting the data doesn't understand that. Just because the ball gets run inside the

It's a B-gap play. All these runs were attacking the edges of the Jets' defense. They're C-gap runs. And if you're not sturdy on the C-gap, but what Kyle did such a good job was he got angles on everybody. So instead of having to power somebody off the line, he just had to turn somebody.

And it's brilliant. Walsh used to say this all the time. You know, all these coaches want to draw pass plays, but the great coaches know how to run the ball. Kyle knows how to run the ball. And when you know how to run the ball against Big Shot Bob, you can do some things. That's why eight teams were able to go over 130, not over 100, over 130.

So there is a scenario if they lost to Will Levis and God help them if they lose to Will Levis on Sunday, they play Thursday night against the Patriots in New Jersey and the Patriots who I, and I want to talk about them in a second. I have no idea if they're good or not, but

On paper, the type of team that they can try to run the ball down the Jets throat, four days rest from the last game, maybe try to just out-hustle them, out-coach them. And somehow the Jets are down 10-0. The crowd's booing. 0-3 is looming. And there's a 10 days before the next game stretch coming up.

And I don't know if, if I'm a jets fan, I'm like, man, if we lose the Tennessee, this could go sideways fast. You got Rogers. Who's not shy about, you know, throwing a little gasoline on the fire. Sometimes. Um, I don't know. I, it's, it's must win in New York. I couldn't agree with you more about look on paper.

Turning the Jets card in and laying three and a half to Will Levis, who his head coach admitted last week, if they would have punted the ball on first down, they would have won the game. Right. I mean, that's a that's a that's a very toxic statement.

I have no confidence in Will. I never did. Like I was I do Russo every Friday afternoon and we make three picks. And I was talking about how Chicago was way overvalued at four and a half and three. And and he and then I didn't take it in one of my three. And he and he took it. And I said, he said, I can't believe you didn't take it. You were talking to someone. I think because I don't trust Will Levis. I knew Chicago wasn't worth that number. But you didn't you got to play the Will Levis factor in there.

So, and then how do they, like, let's go through it. How does Tennessee get open against the Jets? I mean, the receivers in Tennessee aren't going to get, Hopkins isn't getting open. They don't even have to put Sauce Garner on them. They'll put Garner on Ridley. Like, how do they move the ball on the Jets? How do they make plays? So how do they- It's a game the Jets should win, and yet I'm never taking them ever. They should win by 14. They should win by three and a half. They should win by 14. Yeah.

One of my favorite Lombardi things, and this really, this is the difference between somebody like you and somebody like me, because you work for a bunch of teams and you really understand this. You always had that thing about, if I don't do this now, I lose the locker room and the season's over. Once you lose the locker room, that's it. There's no going back. It feels like we're there with Cleveland, with Deshaun. He was, he was, he's been so bad. He was so bad against Dallas.

I don't know what he's good at anymore when I watch. Like he used to be, you know, he'd scramble around. He used to be dangerous. He used to be explosive. He just seems to me like a guy who's shell-shocked. Sal and I talked on Sunday night. There was that one play. He just went straight back. He got perfect blocking.

And he just decided to veer out to the right, Zach Wilson style. And you could just see three Browns linemen just kind of watching him going, we just fucking block for you. Where the fuck are you going? And he just to run away. It just seems like he's a lost cause. Is Stefanski at the point where if he does, like, let's say they're awful this week and I think they're going to be like, how do you just keep starting this guy? You can't.

Well, you have to because the owner, Bill, they doubled down on this deal. They guaranteed a salary this year, which was already guaranteed. So next year, his cap number goes up to $72 million. You can't cut him. This is going to make George Payton feel happy about having the worst contests ever given to Russell Wilson. This is going to make George happy. But why can't you just bench him? Why can't he just be the backup?

Well, because I think the owner who gave him the deal. Now you've got to go walk up to the owner because the owner's blamed everybody else. You fired Alex Van Pelt. I mean, think about this. Joe Flacco throws for 1,616 yards and five games.

Watson throws for 1100 and six games. Yeah, it wasn't the offense that was broken. It wasn't, you know, what our job is to figure out players, coaches or scheme in any sport. That's to me, that's how you do an autopsy on a team. Is it the players? Is it the coaches? Is it the scheme? OK, it's easier in the NBA because it's usually relative to the players. But sometimes the schemes don't work.

But to me, that's where they made the biggest mistake. They're saying the scheme was wrong for Deshaun. So we have to run a different scheme. Well, look now what you get. I mean, Dallas didn't even play for the other day. What's he good at? Like what scheme is right for him? I don't know what his skills are anymore. I will fully confess. I was a Deshaun Watson fan coming out of college. He was good in Houston. When he had Will Fuller, he threw the deep ball as well as anybody in the league. But I think, which we don't ever talk about, but I think money can spoil your appetite.

I mean, he's a very wealthy man. I don't care how many more lawsuits he gets against him. He's made so much money. I don't know if he has the same hunger and the same desire to prove that he can come back from it. You know, you listen to his press conference. He took it. But there's no energy in the guy. There's nothing. And now he's got this other suit with his got a video attached to it. I mean, you know, and if he has another one after he's been suspended, how do they not suspend him for another year?

Well, I see. So there's a few things going on, but you made the key point, but just going backwards, his arm doesn't seem as explosive. He doesn't seem as fearless anymore. I don't think he seems as fast as he was four years ago. So those are three things. But then the other piece that you just mentioned, the quarterback's the leader of the team.

They have to be the coolest guy in the huddle. They have to be the guy that galvanizes everybody up, that lifts you up, that, you know, they're the pilot with the plane going like this. And they're the guys making you feel safe. And I'm only watching on my TV. But when I watch him, he just doesn't seem like he gives a shit.

And I can only judge what I see from the replays and how he's interacting with people. But to me, he just doesn't seem like he really cares. And when your quarterback's bad and also doesn't seem like he really cares, I don't know how that's sustainable. Well, I thought the same thing with Zach Wilson. I didn't think he cared last year. I think he thought it was, you know, it never felt important to me with Zach Wilson. Like it was just too hard. It was too hard to do the homework. It was too hard. Look, I, I,

I think the first quarter down in Jacksonville might be the biggest quarter for the Cleveland Browns football ever, because I agree with you. I mean, Kevin Stefanski will not be able to have any authority within that team if he lets this guy continue to play shitty. And those guys on defense are playing really good. Now, we know this about Cleveland's defense. The numbers are staggering, the difference between what they did

at home and what they did on the road. I mean, they gave up 3000 yards on the road. They gave up like 1100 at home. I mean, it's just like ridiculous, but you know, and of course they've got Doug on the other sideline, which can help them as he was helping Miami the other day. Forth down Doug. Let's go for it. What the hell? For what reason? For what reason could you possibly explain that? But not to lose track here, but I think that's first quarter is so damn important because if he doesn't come out and play good,

And he comes out and throws like he's been nosedive balls into the dirt.

They have no run game. I mean, their offensive line's a mess because of the injuries, but they have no run game. And you think Amari Cooper's going to be happy? You think, you know, Jerry Judy's going to be happy? When their offensive line's banged up? I mean, it's still not 100%. Look, the owner runs the team, right? I've worked there. He made the trade. He took responsibility for it. Can't fire himself. But this is a hole that's hard to dig out of. It's really a hole that's hard to dig out of.

And Stefanski, I don't think he's one of the four best coaches in the league, but I think he's in the top 10. I think he's done the stuff he's done. Yeah, the stuff he's done compared to the talent he's had and the situation he's been in. I think him and Kevin O'Connell, the two Kevins have been good.

Right. And look, I mean, he didn't want to fire Alex Van Pelt. He didn't want to make all these changes on his offensive staff. I don't know if it was Jimmy or Dee Haslam or if it was Paul DePodesto, but somebody else is running it. Look, they've got a lot of people trying to run the team that may not really understand football.

Because they're so based on analytics. And this is where you get caught, is what your question was. If you don't understand football and you don't understand the locker room and you don't understand the impact of a guy who can't lead, then you don't understand how you're going to win. That's really the issue. You can't figure out how to win. And somehow we talked about Deshaun and all the football stuff. We didn't even talk about all the lawsuits and the off the field stuff, which is yet another reason this is such a disaster. You mentioned the Jaguars.

So I had six week one teams. I mentioned earlier about week one, it could go either way in week two, but then after week two, you look back and you go, oh, now that makes sense from week one. I had the Jaguars. I bet on the Jaguars. They actually covered the three and a half. I thought they played really well for three quarters. And I actually think that might be good. And I think the result of that game was stupid. Now we're taping this for Miami Buffalo tonight.

But if ETN just runs in the end zone, they're up 24 seven, the game's over. I thought their defense was good. I think they have a lot of talent. Um, and I'm not willing to, to basically admit I was wrong on the Jaguars. Cause I thought they'd be a 10 win team. Isn't this line is like been basically two and a half and now it's at three. It was a three and a half for a second. Now it's Jaguars three, but are the Jaguars good?

I think they are. I mean, you know, I think they really are. Lawrence was really good in the first half. They threw it down the field better than he ever had. You know, they turned it over. Doug makes some wonderful, questionable decisions. But I think Ryan Nielsen, the new defensive coordinator, was good in Atlanta. Think about Atlanta, right? Last year, Atlanta had no pass rush whatsoever. Couldn't create turnovers. But he was third in the league in third down defense. That's really good with no pass rush. He was fourth in the league in red zone defense.

So he kept you out of the end zone and he kept, and he got off the field on third down. I think he did a really good job. I know he gave up a lot of yards to him and he gave up the big play to Tyreek Hill, but I thought they played them really well. Who else scores on that Tyreek touchdown? I mean, that was a fucking miracle. It's nobody. He does a 90 degree angle down the sideline. It's impossible.

He's unbelievable. He's the best receiver in football and he's the scariest one. So I think to me, there's something fish, this line at three and that Jet Tennessee line are the two ones that look too easy. They just look too easy. I think a lot of people still like Cleveland. I don't think they see the Deshaun Watson thing. I think there's people out there that are just going to assume that, oh, he had a bad game. He'll play better this week. And I think his career is over. I really do. I mean, I like Dallas last week.

I liked Dallas last week for this reason. Everybody was talking about all the problems in Dallas, but they were all contract issues, right? That doesn't really affect. The problems were in Cleveland. You know, they got new offensive coordinator.

They've got a defense that doesn't play well on the road, right? They've got a quarterback who can't make a throw. I mean, there were more issues with them, and it proved to be the truth, right? It's the same thing. Cleveland's defense, this is the anomaly you'll never really understand. Cleveland's defense was the number one defense in the National Football League on third down. They were 32nd in the red zone. So if you got the ball in the red zone on them, you scored. And so how does those two things come together? I think to me,

I thought I was never buying in on Cleveland. I think to me there was going to be a regression to the mean, especially defensively, the way they played on the road. And I thought Dallas was – you're getting – the line moved. Dallas is the favorite. It ended up being the dog in the game. I think Jacksonville should be – I think it should be a three-and-a-half game. That's what I think it should be. I think that's right on the land. I think if you get it at three, you've got to take Jacksonville.

I had more to do on these week one, week two teams, but I forgot to ask you, why don't the Jets just sign Hassan Redick? What's the point of this? I was told last week he was going to go in by a lot of people that know him. And he's due to make 14 minutes, the dumbest holdout since Le'Veon Bell. And then he didn't show up. Like, I think this is one of those where his agency, whoever they are, and they're not getting along.

Like they can't talk sense into the kid because anybody, if you represented them, you would be able to say, look, you're giving away money. You have one year left on a contract. Go in, get 12 sacks and we'll get to the market next year and you'll make $70 million. Like, why are we giving money back to them? And now, you know, he's not coming in unless he gets money. Now it's a principal thing for him. It's the dumbest holdout since Le'Veon Bell. So it wasn't actually business. It became personal.

He forgot one of the biggest rules of the Godfather. What's he doing? That's right. I mean, Joe Douglas trades for this guy and doesn't have the contract worked out. Like he was one thing, give rid of credit. I think it's the dumbest holdout of all time. But one thing, give rid of credit is he was very clear with what he wanted. You know, now nothing says I'm sorry better than money. We know this, but the Jets don't want to say they're sorry. They're not giving them money.

See, I think Le'Veon Bell's contract was dumber because the running back shelf life we already knew at that point was pretty short to begin with. And it's like you have this many years to make money. We're going to take one more break and then I want to talk about some of the week one, week two Zags.

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Okay. So I talked about that week one, week two conundrum. The number one game for this is New England, Cincinnati week one. Cause there's a version of that game that Cincinnati just sucked.

Right. They didn't play well. They, if they score and make it seven, seven in the second quarter, they probably end up winning. Um, New England was able to run the ball really well. They blocked for some reason, which nobody expected. Most of all me, you know, they replaced their left tackle in the first quarter and all of a sudden the right side of the line looked like the early nineties Cowboys. Um,

and they only scored 16 points and they won anyway, but it felt convincing. And it's like, you know what? We'll look back at that and be like, man, that was a dumb game. There's another scenario where the, where the, where the Pats might actually be pretty frisky and a little discount 2001 Patriots ish, where just,

A defense where now that they actually do have a pass rush, which I don't think either of us thought they were going to have without Barmore and Judon, but it seemed like they had one. Combined with the back seven, which is really good in the strength of the team and an ability to run the ball, which nobody was expecting. And everybody seems to be playing hard for Mayo, which you can feel it from the quotes and you can feel it from the postgame stuff. And maybe they're decent, which makes me think maybe the Bengals are okay.

But there's another scenario where the Seattle waxes the pats this week. And then we're like, oh, the Bengals aren't okay because Seattle just killed the Patriots. So where do you stand? How's it going to play out? Well, I think the Patriots have one way to play. And the way they played on Sunday was exactly the only way they can play. They've got to play from the front. They've got to run the ball and they've got to hope their defense can hold up. Now they got a big break. Cincinnati's offensive line, our Trent Brown guy at right tackle was a disaster. He did not play well.

Joe, look, Zach Taylor, I don't understand it, but the guys now he's 0-5 in the first two weeks of the season, the last two years. I mean, he never gets his team ready to play. I mean, as much, and I thought he was better this summer in terms of playing people, but they're never ready.

That game was all about the first quarter. If you're Cincinnati and you don't score on the first drive and make the Patriots have to go put the ball in Brissette's hands for 40 times, they're going to keep them in the game. And then they're going to build some confidence and momentum. And then you're going to be in trouble. They didn't get a first down in the first quarter. They didn't get a first down in the first quarter. Forget about scoring. So I agree. If they would have scored on that play, it probably would have given them some life. But

Look, I think every game will be a struggle for the Patriots. I think Seattle, their offensive line is not very good. They lost their tackle. The one thing there is good is New England's got a powerful defensive front. They can push people back. They'll create a problem for Seattle. If Kenneth Walker's not healthy, which it sounds like he's not, that's an issue too. So I think they're going to be frisky in games.

I don't think they're going to be 10-point dogs at the time. They're three-and-a-half-point dogs. They're three-point dogs here. I think they're frisky enough to where they'll play because they're good enough to play on defense. And if you don't understand how you have to play them, like if I'm Seattle, I'm saying we've got to score early. We've got to get in front of these guys. Make Brissette beat us.

But if you don't do that, like Zach Taylor obviously didn't do it. And then they ran the ball. See, to me, Cincinnati, when they couldn't stop the run, they missed DJ reader badly. I agree with that. And I also, the chase thing, the holdout and burrow with his hand and all the vibes are off on that team.

They offer Chase, according to the reports today, which I think is true. And I've heard this to be true. They offered him 35 a year with like 90 guaranteed. And he turned it down because he said he wants way more than Jefferson. Well, now you're being unreasonable. Like the market is the market. And if the Browns, if the Brown family is willing to pay you the market,

That's why the Brown family said enough of this shit. You're out. You know, we're done. We're not doing any more. We've offered you the best deal we can. You turn that down. You go on your own. We still own you. We have your rights for four more years. We have this year. We have a fifth year option. We can franchise franchise years. So the Pats and the Chargers look very similar to me in week one.

And the Chargers have a more proven coach, but same kind of recipe, right? Let's try to get the lead. Let's, let's try to establish the run and keep running and keep running. And then we can throw out a position of strength. Let's fly around on defense. I thought that Chargers defense, especially in the second half of that game,

was pretty good. We also have no idea how bad the Raiders are. I guess we're going to find that out. Minshew did have his complete, he completed like 80% of his passes. So it's not like they weren't moving the ball, but they're in the game. I mean, Antonio Pierce goes for it. If he goes for it on fourth down, maybe they, and doesn't call like an inside zone play and get stuff. Maybe he would have been in it. I don't think the chargers look very good. I thought Herbert was probably the most disappointing player of week one that I've seen. Yeah.

Well, they only scored 22 points. It was a little similar to the Pats. Like, they did just enough to win. But that was another game where I'm like, I think the Raiders are bad, but maybe the Chargers are also better than people think. But yeah, I mean, who's he throwing to? Like, Palmer is questionable for this week. Scott McConkie, the rookie, but, you know, the last year's rookie seems like he was a bust.

Yeah. They have no skill. They don't have a tight end that can get, make a play. I think, look, if you had any guts, you'd take Carolina and the six at home. I don't have enough guts to do that. I mean, that's what separates me from the betting world because I look at that strictly as like, there's, you know,

But the number is the number. Like, I think Carolina's so shitty. And Bryce Young, he's now played 18 games now. And he hasn't shown that he's got any ability to come out of it. And Mack can rush. And they've got the defensive front. You know, so I don't trust the Chargers because they didn't have any stake. Wow, Harbaugh's your guy. I'm surprised you don't trust them. I love Harbaugh. I think, to me, he's got to play a certain way. You nailed it. He's got to play like the Patriots. But their skill is terrible.

I was disappointed with Herbert. He didn't make any throw. Every score they had was off a big run. I wonder how many teams this year are the, if we can just take a lead heading into halftime, we can probably win. But if we fall behind by 10, we're dead. It seems like we have more teams than usual this year. That's the league though. Why was Dallas so good last year? They had a plus 124 point differential.

They went into halftime with 124-point lead. Any team – look, when we do this podcast in January, the teams that are first-half point differential and the advantage, who are the top four teams in that category will be the winners. It's style of play, right? The teams are – most of the teams are somewhat even. There's obviously better teams, but –

If you can play a certain style, this is why basketball, you learn so much watching basketball for NFL, because if you listen to the college basketball coaches, they'll say, if we play this game in the 60s, we have a chance. If we play it in the 80s, we can't win. College coaches understand style of play.

Some of the NFL coaches, Zach Taylor, you know, some of these guys, they don't understand. They just run their stuff. They just run their stuff. They don't understand that it's a three-dimensional game and you've got to play a certain style. If New England doesn't play a style, say Seattle gets the opening kick, scores a touchdown. Say New England fumbles, they pick it up, they scoop and score. Now they're down 14 to nothing. You know, now it's a different game. You can't be as patient.

Did the Bears defense change your mind at all about the ceiling of that team? Because you and I are both laughing during the summer about that over under was eight and a half. Heavy, heavy action on the eight and a half. People go nuts about Caleb, them putting together this pass first three receiver offense that as soon as it gets cold is going to make no sense at all. And yet their defense look good.

Well, it played Will Levis. I mean, he missed two guys. He had a guy wide open in the end zone for a touchdown. I mean, the guy's sitting there like he was going to fair catch the ball. It took forever for him to get it to him. That's a touchdown there. He had other guys wide open. They ran the ball on the Bears defense. I mean, look, the Bears are soft that you're not running that offense that the Bears are trying to run in Chicago.

When it gets cold. I mean, Tennessee kicked their ass up front. If you and I sat down and watched the all 22 of that game, Tennessee kicked their ass up front. Okay. I have a problem. I think the bears are, are be good on deep. I mean, they're play smart, all that, but. All right. So you think that was Levis related? I think everything. Look, Tennessee ran the ball when Levis, when he took Levis away from it and he could hand the ball off, Tennessee's offense was actually better. The guy couldn't even complete a screen half the time.

My last one would, would, and we don't know the answer to the Buffalo side of this because we're taping before Thursday night game, but I thought the cards offense looked good and people were making a big deal after about how Kyler wasn't throwing it long. And, but I just thought he had control of the game. Harrison had a shit game and they barely went to him when they went to him. He dropped a pretty big pass, but they were moving the ball that whole game. And, uh, and,

If Buffalo is actually a playoff team, and I'm still not sure, but I was impressed. I actually thought they were going to come down. I thought the guy got interfered with on the last play. Yeah. And I thought they had a chance to steal it. So they're playing this Rams team this weekend that, you know, has already had just a shitload of injuries. I'm afraid to go against McVay, but when your offensive line's decimated, you don't have Aaron Donald anymore. The puka's already gone.

You know, and you're just like, what's the point of no return for injuries? They're kind of almost there. And I feel like the cards could steal it. But yet everyone's like, well, McVay owns Arizona. Do you believe in the coach owns franchise blank theory?

Yeah, and I think when you have all these injuries that he has, he can game plan around it. Now he's got four offensive linemen. He had to bring guys in. I thought Stafford was really good last week. I think he took a beat and he made throws. I mean, look, if you're going to give me a point and to keep Sean McVay from going 0-2, I'll take the point.

I believe in game plan. I think that Arizona defense is atrocious. You know, I know, I think to me and Stafford will make enough plays. Cooper Cup could still make plays. So look, I don't know. To me, I think Buffalo is an average team with a great quarterback.

And I don't think you should ever, ever deviate from that. I think they're a very average team with a great quarterback. I think Miami will do a lot of tonight. Here's where I think the advantage is for Miami tonight, Jordan Poyer. So Miami has Jordan Poyer on their team. He knows everything about Buffalo's defense from chapter to verse. He's going to help them. I mean, they're going to run some stuff that Buffalo's not used to seeing that's going to attack Buffalo.

If Miami doesn't win this game, they're never going to beat a good team. And I'm not sure Buffalo is a good team. Even if Miami wins, I'm not going to acquiesce and say, oh, finally they beat a good team. So do you believe in the Coach Owens franchise blank? Because I never believed it until I felt like the Patriots were going to beat Buffalo no matter who was on Buffalo's team for the entire time we had Brady. It was just like, we're never losing to Buffalo ever.

Yeah, they would have lost to Buffalo. I mean, look, they got Josh Allen, so that changes the dynamic. But I think for most... Again, I'm saying for 20 years, I was just like, mark those two wins down, we own Buffalo. You know, I think to me, Sean understands certain games. They're comfortable playing. There is a comfort level of play in there.

I think Sean's really good coach and you give him a week to game plan when, when he knows he doesn't have this player or that player, it's hard when you do it on the game, that left tackle that they put in against Detroit was so bad. That, that poor kid had no chance to play. And yet they still, right. And still they got the game in overtime. Are you with me on the Steelers just in general?

I think if you like ugly football and you like Mike Tomlin like I do, yeah. I mean, I regretted not – I didn't take him on the Russo contest. But to me, they did exactly what they had to do to win the game. They ran the football. I said this on Monday, and Arthur Smith confirmed it today. But here's when you know you've got a good coach. Arthur Smith was not going to let Justin Fields throw the ball in the middle field.

He was never going to let him throw it. He threw it all outside the numbers. And so because he didn't want Jesse Bates making a play. So they took away their best player. Meanwhile, for some reason, the Super Bowl winning champion, Atlanta Falcons, decided that T.J. Watt wasn't going to play in the game. So they didn't worry about him. And he just destroyed the game. I mean, look, I'm worried about Cousins. I don't know what you thought, but I was worried about Cousins. What do you mean what I thought? I thought he was a statue. He could move.

I mean, that offensive line's not any good in Atlanta. They're not. They can't pass protect. McCreary got his ass kicked. This week against Philly, they'll be challenged. So I think all those people that bought tickets for Atlanta to win the Super Bowl, you might want to think about selling them if you can. It would be hilarious if Pennix turned out to be a great pick because Cousins wasn't healthy.

The Cousins signing was bad, but Pennix, like, all right, we at least salvaged it with the Pennix trade. If it's $100 million in the hole, you're $100 million in the hole. Well, that was just like, what, 25% of the teams are just, they're playing with like 80% of a salary cap. All right, that's it for football. We have two other topics for you. One, have you talked yourself into the new big three of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey yet?

I'm not going down. I'm not getting talked into that. You're going to, it'll be February before I'm ever going to be convinced of that. I'm just not going there. I'm not. What part scares you the most? Is it the injury factor? Is it the sacrificing? They have no mental toughness as a team. Like they, you can't, you can't be a championship team without mental toughness. And if your best player has zero mental toughness, how are you going to be a championship team? He's a gold medalist.

Yeah, thanks to the guy who put his team on his back and said, fellas, just get the fuck out of the way. I mean, great players play great when greatness is needed. That's what he was. I'm not going, look, I know I've been down this road and they pull me back in. I'm not going down the road. I can't. I'm not. It's just, I know the outcome of this. Like, I've seen it.

There's no toughness. I believe in toughness. I believe in championship character. I believe in hard work. All those things that Brady echoed in his Hall of Fame speech, I believe in. And that hasn't changed since time immemorial. So I don't understand how they're going to win. I don't care, you know, what pieces, you know, I mean, I appreciate them signing that French guy because he was tough, but the team's not tough.

You know what's funny? You always complain about your friend Big Daddy, the Packers fan. Yeah. Who's just always glass half. To say he's glass half full would be an understatement. He's glass like 5% full. Yeah. But you're kind of the Big Daddy of the Sixers.

That's who you turned into. Only because I don't like the star player. I just don't buy into him. If he were gone and they had other people, I would be more enthusiastic. I'm usually... I am usually... It's why Belichick and I got along so good. I'm usually Mr. Positive and he was Mr. Negative. And so we kind of met in the middle a little bit. I'm typically really... I'm the happy scout. I'm not the miserable scout. You know, like some scouts, oh, this guy's no good. Well, he's going to the Hall of Fame. Oh, he's no fucking good. But...

This guy has destroyed me forever because of the media perception about him. And nobody's willing to say he's not in shape. Nobody's willing to say he could be great if he would get in shape. Nobody's willing to criticize. They all buy his, you know, oh, yeah, I'm a star, you know, like win a championship. Show me that you really care. How about make round three? How about make round three? How about care?

I really like Embiid. I just want to say, I really like Embiid, the person. And I don't understand why he doesn't understand the get in shape piece of this, which makes me almost think his body is like breaking down and he's holding on for dear life. All right, let me ask you this question. What are the chances that he's healthy April 1st of next year? I would honestly say 50-50.

Yeah, I think that's right. I think there's a 50% chance. Right. And what's the chances that he's in shape in May 1st of next year? But you and I, we're both old. Like we know what happens with centers as they get older and they put weight on them. Guess what happens? They get hurt. That's how it goes. You hit your thirties, put a little weight here, a little weight there. Now all of a sudden my knee, I got tendinitis and oh, my back. So this was the last four or five years of Shaq's career.

And people will be like, oh no, Shaq made the all-star team in 08. Shaq was a completely different guy the last five, six, seven years of his career than where he started. So you asked me, am I negative? I just see the future. I know where this train's coming. There's another train. You know what's funny though? You didn't even mention the Paul George piece of...

a month in where the first, the first story, like sources say, Paul George is unhappy. He's standing in the corner so much on offense for Philly. Wish he had the ball more. Cause Maxie's great. Everyone loves Maxie.

I love Maxie. I'm all in on Maxie. But here's where I think this to me, if I were prosecuting the Embiid love affair in a court, I would call the dream team as my witnesses because as great as that team was, he really couldn't even play with that team. So all this conversation about, well, he just needs the right pieces around him is bullshit because he was playing on the greatest semblance of basketball players in the world and he still couldn't play on that team.

I guess I have two more things. You're doing a pod with Belichick who is, I mean, he's on like seven shows. He went from one word answers at a press conference to if he just put a mic in front of him, he's talking. But it just seems like he's getting a complete kick out of this whole thing. Like it's like he's had all this stuff bottled up forever. Yeah, I think what he really loves, we're doing this thing called the Encyclopedia on YouTube too, where

we're going to do a weekly pod that I'm we're going to he and I are going to look back on this week. I think Matt, Patricia and him are going to look ahead. But the one thing we're all doing is we're doing what we call the library, the encyclopedia. So we're doing a bunch of different things on, you know, the Hall of Fame, we're doing things on evaluation, the process of building a team, all that stuff. And then we're going to put that in the library on the on the YouTube and that he really I mean, that's where his

He loves that. I mean, that's where he kind of comes throughout and he enjoys it. And I think to me, the way he's approached it, he's, you know, he's working as hard as ever. He's in NFL films for three days. He's watching tape, you know, and I can't believe somebody wouldn't call him next offseason. But I think he's preparing as if because of his age and maybe nobody would call. I got to have a career after this. I think the complete opposite. I think this is a six month sprint until February and he's getting a job.

Nine jobs open as always, and he'll be ready. And he stayed in the limelight and he's, this was all really smart. But Bill, when you finished third in the Atlanta Falcons selection, you weren't even in their top three in the selection committee. I mean, you know, it's hard. It's, you know, it's hard, but I do think that there's, there's going to be some, there is definitely a gap between like I did today. I,

I'm writing a column for tomorrow. I borrowed one of your great things was what team has no chance? And there's like eight teams right now that have no chance. Like you could eliminate eight teams from ever thinking about their going to the playoffs. Eight right now. That's a lot of teams.

Yeah. In week one? I don't think I'm wrong on any of them. Do you think Arizona has a chance? Do you think the Raiders have a chance? Do you think Washington has a chance? The Giants have a chance? You know, do you think Tennessee has a chance? You know, do you think Carolina? That's six. So you're talking about cross-off teams. Yeah, there's Sal and I always try to do one a week. And we did for after week one, we did two. We were like Carolina and the Giants cross-offs.

I'm going to give you eight. Now, I don't know if I put Denver in there because Denver has no chance to win the Super Bowl, but Denver is going to improve. But I'm talking about teams that have no chance at all. Like Tennessee has no chance. They're kidding themselves a little bit. Just like the Giants are kidding themselves. Washington's got a young quarterback, but their team sucks. I mean, there's all different scenarios. But has there ever been a time where eight teams you could just eliminate and say they got no chance? Not after week one.

And I honestly, I'd throwing, I would throw in Cleveland. I think that a shot thing is, is a single handled league and a kill their season. Um,

I think Belichick's back in February. That's my prediction. What happens first? Belichick is coaching again or Bob Kraft is in the Hall of Fame? I know you read that piece. I read that word for word. I mean, I've seen that. I mean, you know, to try to deny that he had nothing to do with that documentary. Come on now. That's not fair. Well, I was waiting. Yeah, I worked with Alex Gibney and he's a great guy. Isn't Alex doing the Sopranos thing? Oh, it's up.

That was my last thing I had for you. I saw one episode last night. That's the same guy who did the documentary on the Patriots. Yeah, he's one of the great documentarians of all time. And I had heard that he was involved because it was in the press release. They did a press release or it came out that he was. And then all of a sudden, by the time the doc came out, he wasn't involved. And I was like, oh, I guarantee. Because that guy doesn't. He did the Enron doc. Like, he doesn't fuck around with this stuff. So if it was like, this has to be a puff piece with.

Kraft with final editorial control, that guy must have been like, I'm out. I don't know the story yet. You're going to find this hard to believe, but I truly believe because Kraft hired the greatest coach of all time. He belongs in the whole thing. I believe that whole argument. If Jerry Jones is in, Kraft should be in. But I think he's pushing for it too hard. That's my problem. It's like, just why are you trying to take credit for shit you didn't do?

Like, why not? If he would have gotten it, he would have given credit. What do you mean? If it wasn't for him, Belichick and Brady wouldn't have been able to coexist for that long because Kraft was just brokering the peace between them at all times. It was that acrimonious. Just enjoy the six Super Bowls. Like, why? Like, I think he deserves to get in. I've said it before, but this egocentric drive to take credit for it. Like, you're the owner. Why do you need credit? Like, you own the team.

You saved the team. They were going to move. You saved them. You kept them in New England. I mean, Art Rooney, you know, I mean, he went through all those years being a, being bad at Pittsburgh. He didn't try to take credit for the suit bowls. He was generous and giving, whereas this guy's trying to take everything from like, that's what to me, that's why he's not getting in. He's trying too hard. Well, we're going to wrap up, but I,

I'm stunned you haven't watched both episodes of The Sopranos Doc yet. I know it's first week of football buses, but it's an absolute outrage. I've already done a podcast two days ago with Fantasy and Van Lathan about how great it was. I thought you were the number one Sopranos fan. I didn't listen to that yet. I'll listen to that. Every rule you have is from The Sopranos and The Godfather. You haven't watched The Sopranos Doc?

I saw the one last night. I thought it was fabulous last night. In fact, going through the auditions were tremendous, right? They were just tremendous. I didn't see an Uncle Junior audition, which was very disappointing. I would have loved to have seen that. But I mean, you talk about me being miserable. David Chase just lives a miserable life. Does he ever seem like he was happy? Wait until you get to part two. Part two, it really dives into that.

Like basically him and Gandolfini and Soprano just merge into one miserable entity. So they get into it. Well, I'm excited for you to watch the rest of it. It's great. Lombardi, we can hear you all over the place, but especially the Jam Shuffle podcast. Coach on Belichick, find that on YouTube and Visa Morning Show. You're working hard. I always enjoy the content. Great to see you, my friend. Thank you, Bill. Appreciate you.

Now it's time for a special part of today's episode sponsored by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. My friend, NFL Sunday Ticket has awesome features to help you stay on top of all the action like multi-view,

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Device and content restrictions apply. This episode is brought to you by the 2025 Lincoln Aviator SUV. Hmm. The 2025 Lincoln Aviator nails that feeling of next level confidence. The updated grill and sleek lights, total head turners. Under the hood, a refined twin turbo V6 powers you through with authority. Inside, pure comfort. Plush three-row seating, custom climate control, a

Available massage seats keep you ready to tackle whatever's next. Explore more at Lincoln.com. Some models, trims, and features may not be available or may be subject to change. Check with your local retailer for current information. Lincoln and Aviator are trademarks of Ford or its affiliates. All right, Joe House is here. We're about to do Million Dollar Picks. We almost had an awesome week last week, and then the Jets let us down. But we finished 4-2 last week. We

We won $364,000 of fake money. We were four and one on the straight ups. We lost our tees. And most importantly, I won our argue pick, which was Chargers Raiders. So we're going to do an argue pick. We too is always scary. Overreactions, a false sense of security or a false sense of this team is way worse than, and then it turns out they're not that bad.

So we've been talking a lot about bets we like this week. And unfortunately, there's been more disagreeance than usual. Thank God it's my podcast and I can overrule us. The thing we seem the most excited about is the Chargers just to beat the absolutely terrible Carolina Panthers. And there's a bet on FanDuel where it's Chargers first half. Chargers for the game is minus 130. But we were looking at that. But I'm going to go through some of the games that I like.

And you could either poo-poo them, throw in, I'll do two, then you do one, and we can just go back and forth. Okay. I'm just happy to be back. Yeah, you earned another week because we won money. Thank God. Thank God. So Steelers-Broncos. Steelers minus two and a half at Denver. And I love the Steelers. I'm continuing to back the Steelers. I love their defense.

Now it's like, well, Kirk Cousins couldn't move. That's why I thought their defense was awesome in that game. Denver last week in Seattle, 67 plays for 231 yards. Bonick was awful. Yes. Why wouldn't Pittsburgh's defense just eat him up this week? Explain it to me. It's not Pittsburgh's defense that I'm worried about because I do think that they'll travel. They'll be ferocious. It's the offense, right? No touchdowns. So we're still trying to find a touchdown.

with Pittsburgh. And it's just situationally a hard thing. A second consecutive road game at the beginning of the season flying out to the high altitude. And Denver started off last year...

Oh, and two, Denver lost to Washington in their home opener last year. So I think Sean Payton is like, you know, point of emphasis. Let's try and not do that again. And the reason that I'm feeling not incredible about Pittsburgh is I thought that Denver defense was something against Seattle. I mean, they opened the game with a sack and an interception and two effing safeties in the first half. And Denver was winning at halftime. So...

For me, I'm not that inclined to jump back in. There's a big difference between Tomlin as a dog and Tomlin as a road favorite. So I'm just kind of like feeling squeamish about it. So the only thing with Denver's defense, for some reason, Seattle just couldn't block. Well, they have one of the worst offensive lines.

Yeah, I was texting with Mina and Danny Kelly and they were just having a heart attack in the first half about how bad the blocking was. So Denver's defense might actually not even be that good. It might have just been in a Seattle. We'll know what the Seattle offensive line against the Pats this week.

I, to me, this is an only fields can screw this up at Lombardi made the key point before you came on. Yeah, I know. I know. You don't have to get Lombardi was like, watch how they used fields in that first game. He never threw the ball over the middle. They never wanted to put him. Everything was to the sides or deep or him scrambling. Like I think I actually think the Steelers are pretty well coached and have kind of figured out what they can do and not do with him. Um,

I still like it. Steelers minus two and a half. I have it marked down. I'll talk you into it. It's fine. Jaguars. Jaguars Browns is a bet against the Sean Watson and a bet on Jacksonville's defense that maybe actually is good. They were good for two and a half quarters, gave up one long Tyree play one waddle play. But for the most part, uh, I thought they were pretty good. I mean, they only gave up 20 points. Um,

No Njoku for Cleveland. Cleveland's offensive line is still banged up. My question is, if ETN doesn't fumble and Jacksonville goes up 24-7, they're about to win. Is this line like five and a half?

Well, that would be crazy. The look ahead was Jacksonville by one. But I'm saying Jacksonville kills Miami and Deshaun gets killed by Dallas. This line's Jacksonville by six. I mean, that would be crazy talk. I went through all of the lines and looked for the discrepancies between the look ahead for week two. Because, you know, just in general, week two, you don't play favorites, right? Favorites hit like 40-some percent of the time in week two. So stay away from favorites.

And the other thing is, you know, you're looking for teams that were outright favorites in week one who are now in week two. You know, there is a nice bounce back angle in terms of against the spread. Those hit at about a 60%.

clip, but I don't like, you know, I didn't see anything from Jacksonville that warranted the inflation on the line. That is a purely a function of inflation. That's exactly it. It's a Deshaun premium. You got to pay a Deshaun premium. How about this? I'm happy to pay it. I think his career's over.

Well, I don't think he's a functional starting quarterback anymore. It may be. And I'm not going to make the argument supporting him. What I will say is that there was a big difference between the first half and second half of that game in terms of, you know, him looking mildly functional. He did hit Amari Cooper in the hands with a 40 yard pass for a touchdown that Amari Cooper did drop. The Browns did have four drops. He's probably so shocked. He got hit in the hands of the past. He probably didn't know how to react.

No argument. But I mean, I'm still invested in the Cleveland defense. And I do think, you know, they're good.

The Jacksonville offensive line has a little bit of a rotating cast of characters. And if Cleveland puts defense on, on Trevor Lawrence, you know, the splits for him under duress and not under duress are not good. So I just don't love like all the extra, the two extra points. How about the splits of Cleveland's defense on the road versus Cleveland's defense at home? Then the other question is,

you know, Cleveland, it's a must win, but it's also, if they lose, then it probably gives them an excuse to, to dump Deshaun and, you know, put them on the bench and try one of the other guys. Jacksonville, if they lose this game, they'd be 0-2 going into at Buffalo on a Monday night at Houston. It's weirdly a must win, even though it's Deshaun Watson. Like this is a, Hey, if we're good, we got to take care of business. So for me,

I thought, I thought Jacksonville was a playoff team. I still think they have the talent to be there. And if they can't win a game like this, then I was dead wrong. And I'm just not willing to think I'm wrong. I, so this ties into the third game, Colts Packers, Colts minus three in green Bay with Malik Willis. And we're going to argue about Malik Willis in a second. These three bets, I get the best defense in either league against Bo Nix. I get

A Jaguars defense at home that seems pretty good in hot weather against Deshaun Watson, his career is about to be over. And then I get to bet against Malik Willis. And I'm just like, just strip all this stuff away. And it's like, I get to do those three things. What are the odds? I can't go at least two in one with those three, with those three thoughts in my head.

I just want to urge caution because what you've done after you admirably presented me with a full slate of week one underdogs, you've now shown up for week two, the week where you don't play favorites and immediately put three favorites on the table, including one where the look ahead line was, you know, you're doing a great conciliary job. Yeah, that's what I'm here for.

Malik Wilson. Malik Willis. Maybe you should change his name to Malik Wilson. Doesn't matter. Three starts, 48 points, 11 passing first downs, got sacked 10 times, 276 total pass yards, zero touchdowns, three picks, just got given away for a seventh round pick. I don't know what they're doing. The only thing that worries me about this is if they think Jordan Love can actually play and they're rope-a-doping us. Because they haven't said he's out. He's doubtful, questionable, and...

Are we allowed to do a million dollar picks? Like if Jordan Love plays, the bet's scratched?

Well, it's your... I guess it's my gimmick. I guess I can do what I want. I just am prepared to talk you out of it either way. Why? Talk me out of it. Let's hear it. Well, because either we believe in LeFleur, who starts off the season on fire. His record against the spread and straight up in the first three weeks since he's been the head coach is stellar. And, you know, you could say, well, this is because the guys had...

You know, he went from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. And yeah, like, look, you know, two pretty great quarterback situations. And we're going to put that all to the test. But the thing to me is,

I like the way that Green Bay established the run against Philadelphia. And I think that Philadelphia's run defense is superior to the Colts because Joe Mixon, who hasn't run for 160 yards since what high school came out with Houston and ran for 160 yards against this Colts defense. Can I give you a counter on that? Please go ahead. Because I said this to Lombardi.

Is it possible Houston's offense is really well-rounded and awesome? And Indianapolis was like, we have to give up something. We don't want to give up deep passes and have Stroud just annihilate us all over the field. Let's see if Joe Mixon can run for 160 yards. Because I think that was the philosophy. I also don't think Indianapolis' defense is that good, but.

Well, here's an element to it, right? The Colts defense was on the football field for more than 35 minutes. Like, I mean, right around 35 minutes. 76 plays to 43, I think. Yeah. Yeah. So because the other time the Colts got the ball and they were just check Richardson at 350 yard plays. So the drives were faster. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. So you have a tired defense. Are you really telling me you don't want me to bet against Malik Willis? Like, yeah, that's honestly what you're telling me.

When we were comparing notes, you thought they brought him out to throw Hail Mary and he didn't even get the Hail Mary off. It was the best thing ever. There's no scenario under which I'm going to sit here and advocate for Malik Willis. I honestly think that LaFleur is going to keep the ball out of his hands. He is going to be standing in the quarterback position. Yeah.

You know why the Packers ran the ball well against Philly? Because Jordan Love was their quarterback and they had to play with all the receivers and worry about them and they had to give up something. Now you have to worry about anybody. Listen, you're not taking Malik Willis week away from me. I want to bet against Malik Willis and I'm doing it. All I'm telling you is it's too many points. This is a miracle line. It's Colts minus three. No, I don't like it. It's a field goal.

It's too much. I would be fine with it. Too much? How much lower do you want it? What if it's one? It's like, oh, now that's a fair price. One and a half or two would be fine. Six points. A six point difference for love. That's all. Not doing three. You're just being a puss. That's really what you're being. I'm here to be your consigliere. I just want to urge caution. It's the most obvious game on the table. Like the most obvious game on the table last week.

And we saw how that went. What is the case for supporting Green Bay and Malik Willis? Nobody can make it. You just made the case. You said Green Bay is going to that Indies run defense is bad. Green Bay is going to run the ball. The floor is a good coach. Lambeau, Anthony Richardson and Green Bay. There's a case. I'm trying. I just don't think people remember how bad Malik Willis was. It's like, oh, they have a backup. It'll be fine. It's like, no, this is way worse than a backup.

He also won't be blown away by seeing the Colts because while he was on the Titans, he saw the Colts a couple few times, right? It's not like, oh, this is not going to be the, you know, it's still a Gus Bradley defense, cover three all day long. Chargers, Panthers, there's a bet on Fando we like with that minus 130 first half game.

that I just want to mark Carolina lost Brown for the year. Their best guy on the, on the defensive line, Bryce Young's in absolute shambles Harbaugh against Dave Canales Palmer's hurt for the chargers, which worries me a little Lombardi was pointing out how Herbert just didn't look good in game one. Um, chargers next to is at Pittsburgh home Casey. So this is a little bit of a must swim, but the Carolina thing, it's almost bad to play at home. If you're Carolina, uh,

When the fans are this upset about the Bryce Young trade, how bad Bryce Young's look, the owner, just the vibes. I would, I would rather be on the road if I was them, but this just feels like a Harbaugh figures it out game. Yeah. I'm glad we're talking about this game in the manner we're talking about it because if we were talking about the points, I wouldn't,

I wouldn't want to do it. I try. I mean, you can't make a compelling case for Carolina. All you can do is say historically teams that, you know, get blown out, lose by the number of points that they lose in game one, come into game two and cover at an incredible rate. I mean, there's nothing in the X's and O's to commend

Carolina, the thing I was so blown away by how tough that Chargers defense was like magically you flip a switch like my guy. Look at my guy, Joey Bofa, Joey Bofa, dominant, dominant. He's on the injury report.

Oh, no. No, it's just he's questionable now for week two, but it's Joey Bosa. Like, just you have to factor that in with him. He's questionable Joey Bosa. Forced fumble. Led the team in tackle. Yeah, he was good. Yeah. He's the Riddler. He's questionable at all times. Both of these nuts is not missing this game. Both of these nuts is here. He's going to show up for this game. So we like first half in the game minus 130. Have that markdown.

Cards Rams fits your, this looks too easy case where it's cards minus one and a half in Arizona, but McVay owns the Cardinals. They have a bad defense, but McVay has all these offensive line issues already. Pook is out. I liked the way the cards played last week. We're taping this before Miami Buffalo. So it's hard to say how impressive the cards putting up 28 and driving for a game winning touchdown at the end and not getting it. Um,

Is this a stay away to you or should we consider it? It's a stay away. I mean, if I was going to do anything, I would tease the Rams up, um, you know, from the one and a half and get them up to over seven and a half up to seven and a half. But I, there's no reason we don't, we're not compelled to play it. Okay. There's a ton of teaser legs that I like this week. And I'm going to talk about them right now. I, there's some watch out for that teaser. Yeah.

Chiefs just seem too easy and just super fun to throw in. I got to say, I don't want to have a bet for against the Bengals this week because I don't know what's going on with them. It just seems like a classic. Everyone likes the Chiefs. And then the Bengals actually look like the Bengals again. They're like, oh my God, I can't believe I fell for the Bengals suck thing. They do this every year. I just want no part of that game. I'm with you. Can we cross that one off? Cross off.

Houston home for the Bears is the Sunday night game, I think. Right? Yeah. This is the chaser tease where if you did do well on Sunday, you guys talked about this on the ringer gambling show. Then that Sunday night, it's like, ah, I'm down. Houston tease with, with Philly on Monday night. And I'll, I'll rally back.

something scares me about this game. And I love Houston. I have AFC South Houston bets. I have Houston for the one seat. I have Houston in the Superbowl, but, um, I don't know why it's too easy. It just looks too easy. That's it. I don't have a rational reason. Oh,

See, I feel a little more confident about this one. And I'm not saying let's walk in and lay the points. I prefer to play it as a teaser leg. I think on that national stage, that Sunday night, I think they intend to come out and embarrass the Bears. And I don't think it's going to take very much effort because...

Speaking of Mike Lombardi, did he talk about the Bears offensive line and the atrocious play and their inability last week against Tennessee? Now, Tennessee has a much improved defense for sure, but Caleb was running for his life and that definitely played a role in how inaccurate he was and how lackluster average passing yards. What we did have was we had the conversation of is

did the Bears defense look good or is Will Levis terrible? And the answer is Will Levis might be terrible and the Bears might be slightly good. But yeah. All right. So, all right. You talked me into it. Texans minus six and a half teaser. Ravens minus eight and a half. And I think that line bumps up higher than that against Las Vegas. I just think Las Vegas is,

I just want to keep betting against them. They'll rally back. They'll win their state. They'll beat Casey somehow. They'll have a couple of dumb wins down the road, but right now I want to bet against them. So with a tease, you could take the Ravens under three to two and a half. You could take the Texans down to, uh,

a half point. And then I also like the Eagles against Atlanta. And I think all three of those should go together. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the Eagles against Atlanta is going to end up like all over my card in so many different ways with like alt spreads and all kinds of stuff. That's Philly at home too, by the way. Well, and...

Her cousins can't move. They didn't run a single play action play. The whole world knows it and is talking about it. What are they possibly? And part of the thing with Atlanta, like how can you be this unprepared? How can you show up against, you know, you're playing Pittsburgh in week one and you can't put this guy under center and run play action against

Well, they didn't do it because he can't move. He can't move. Right. So how is that like responsible to him, to Cousins? And how is it fair to the rest of his teammates to put that dude in that position? Pittsburgh knew every play that Atlanta was going to run based on the formation. So we can put those three together. That's plus 140 on FanDuel for our six point tees.

What could go wrong? We could use our hammer because they have a double your winnings on any Moneyline bet. And we could use our hammer, I think, on that or we could use our hammer on that Chargers bet.

I'd rather use it on the Chargers bet because the script for me with the Chargers is a low-scoring... Chargers just come in and take care of business. Like, they're up 17-6, right? Carolina gets two field goals over the course of the game. Chargers just, you know, they're still, you know...

keeping the training wheels on Herbert. Cause they, he's his, whatever that plan or fasciitis or whatever his issue is with his foot. He didn't look great. They're not trying to push the ball down the field. They just want to control the ball, let their defense do its thing. They don't, you don't have to do anything against Carolina.

Carolina certainly isn't going to put any pressure on the charges. Just run the ball, run the ball, run the ball. 27 runs for 176 yards against the vaunted Raiders and their vaunted defensive line. They went in there. Tyree Wilson this week for the Raiders. Yeah. Yeah. So I like it. So Fando, we get to use this on our million dollar picks with fake money, but they have a double your winnings profit boost. We used it last week with the lion's money line, which was minus one 98.

And then we won and we went $204,000. Yeah. Basically we won our money back and then a little bit more on that. So we have that one to play just quickly going through the stay aways.

Lions, Bucs. Lions are another teased candidate. I want to see the Bucs for another week because they had a little nobody believes in us last week. And I know they're banged up in the secondary and I get it. Yeah. I kind of want to see them. They're very comfortable playing in Detroit. We've already seen it. All right. I get it. Jets, Titans is a complete stay away from me. Stay away. Stay away.

Seahawks Pats. I just want to see the Pats again. Yeah, for sure. I actually, I went from, I had three different futures going against the Pats to kind of liking their underdog money line in week two, but I think it's that way. Cowboys Saints. I get it. I just don't trust the Cowboys. I think the Saints, I just don't, I, I, I just don't trust them. You're not roping me in because you killed Cleveland.

What I had them under all spring and all summer. I did not believe in them. I didn't think there'd be a playoff team and I'm not going to overreact because they beat Deshaun Watson. Well, it's not an overreaction. The number is exactly where the look ahead was sick. I get it. And now I'm saying I'm not overreacting to what I saw last week. I still don't believe in the Dallas team. I don't want to put money in them. Okay. You can put your money in them. I will. I will. It might be my best bet on wise guys on Sunday.

Are we still doing that show after everyone lost their wise guy best bet? Did anyone win? Did you win? I did not win. Of course, I lost by the half point. No, I didn't. I had Pittsburgh on the money line. So that was when I was plus for the week because I hit Pittsburgh on the money line.

Did Raheem retire after he had Carolina as his best bet in week one or no? He's going to come back? Every smart guy on earth with all summer long touting Carolina. Oh, they added these weapons on offense and the progression with second year quarterbacks. Nobody could explain how trading their very best defensive players was going to help them win football games. How about not having a first round pick? Bet it was helps too. They'll have one this coming year. Yeah, it's going to be coming up. Probably number one.

49ers at Vikings. I'm staying away. I don't know why, but I don't know what's going on with Sam Darnold, but I want to watch another week. Minnesota did beat San Francisco last year. And then the last one, Washington Giants. I have a new category called the both of these teams can fuck off. I just want no part of this. The FO. Yes, the both of these teams can fuck off. It's the FO line. We should come up with a name for that. I'm not going to feel stupid if the team that I pick in our picks pool...

The other team wins. Oh, I should have known. There's no I should have known with Giants. This is a thousand percent a teaser leg for me. I mean, the only team that Danny Dimes has any success whatsoever against is Washington. He's 5-1-1 against Washington with 1,500 passing yards. Don't tease the Giants. Ten touchdowns, three picks. All he does is torture Washington. And the Giants have a good pass rush.

So I'm concerned for my guy, JD. So we're bumping Cardinals.

It looks like we have four games, which we disagree. We don't even, do we even have an argue pick? I guess one of these can double as the argue pick. Well, I'm just telling you for million dollar picks, we're doing the Steelers, the Jaguars, the Colts, and then we're doing that tease and we're doing Chargers. So we got five bets. Steelers, Jaguars, make the Colts our argue pick. So that will double, so we can double. If love plays, I'll let you back off of it. We won't call it the argue pick.

You know what? I'm not afraid of him in his MCL. He shouldn't play, but even if he plays...

Once again, I did win the argue pick last week. Chargers readers. Antonio Pierce. He punted from the 40 yard line right in your face. Yeah. Down to the eight. And then he promptly, his vaunted defense, this brilliant defensive guru, let the Chargers run right down their effing throat on a 92 yard drive. Congratulations, Antonio. Way to go.

I was just excited to watch somebody punt from the 40-yard line. I mean, we hadn't seen that since, like, we were in college. Do you think that every stadium that he goes to, he's going and grabbing a little bit of turf so that it can go into his memento case? Because this is it. This is a one and done. And he'll be lucky if he gets all the way through 17. Listen, we're already looking at him if we have to replace Raheem, if Raheem does a Carolina best bet this week.

I don't think you're going to do it. Or if JJ just keeps taking the Dolphins, maybe he could host Wiseguy. I don't know. JJ does love the Dolphins tonight. We're taping this before the Dolphins game. Okay. The million dollar picks for week two. We are up $364,000 and it should have been more, but the Jets and Big Shot Bob Sala would not cooperate. We have a little disagreeance on these picks.

but we're going to plow ahead anyway. You're going to be happy that we took the Steelers minus two and a half in Denver against Bo Nix. This is a straight, hey, Steelers defense, just take us home. That's it. Justin Fields, just don't throw the ball over the middle. Run around a little, throw to Friar Moose, throw deep down the sidelines to Pickens twice, and then let your defense do the rest. My job is just to be a consigliere, to give you the other side and considerations. We're putting $200,000 on that.

Hopefully Justin Fields does not screw it up for us. Next game, Jaguars minus three at home for the Browns. I, this, this is a personal one for me. I still believe in the Jaguars. They didn't throw me off their scent. Okay. No new joke for Cleveland banged up offensive line for Cleveland, Cleveland on the road and most important,

This might be Deshaun Watson's last start ever. And I want to have money against him one last time. I'm really looking forward to it. Not arguing you out of it. I also think Jacksonville's D might be legit good. Jaguars minus three. Maybe it'll be a push, whatever. 200,000 on that.

Here we go. Our argue pick as well. I'm 1-0 on the argue pick. Colts minus three Packers. I overruled House. House was trying to convince me not to bet against Malik Willis. And we had an argument about it. And I won the argument because we're betting against Malik Willis. This feels like Christmas in mid-September. I understand.

I just want to urge caution. It's Malik Willis. I'm just urging caution. I'm going to be texting you the whole game as he's throwing the ball. It's hitting guys in the face mask. He's throwing it to the other team. He's hitting the guy holding the first down chain.

All kidding aside, here's a preview of Wise Guys. Whatever the pass attempt total is for Malik Willis, it's an auto bet under. There is no auto bet under. Whatever the number of pass attempts that the books have put out there for Malik Willis, under, under, under. The floor won't tolerate it. Can we bet that? Oh, you definitely can. Is that a bet we can do right now?

Now you got, now we screwed up million dollar picks. I don't see that on the, I'm sure they'll have that this weekend. No, they'll have it this weekend. They don't put those up until over the weekend. Good point. Good point. Good point. Speaking of FanDuel, FanDuel is still doing their double your winnings bet where whatever the money line on the bet, they'll double it with their little profit boost token. We did this last week. We went on the lines money line. We're going to do it again this week. We're going to bet 200K on

on, oh, is it 200? Maybe we should bet 150. The Chargers first half Chargers game is minus 130. Yeah, yeah. So we're going to bet 130,000 on that. And if it wins, Fando's going to double our money and we'll win $200,000 back. Chargers win the first half. Chargers win the game. Did some research on the Panthers.

I think they only won the first half last year three times in 2023. They did not win the first half this week as well. In Jim Harbaugh, we trust. I'm going to try to overlook the part that Herbert looks terrible. Yeah, Chargers, they look great. They're going to run the ball. And I'm not afraid of Bryce Young. Last but not least, a teaser. Ravens minus eight and a half against Vegas. The Eagles on Monday night, minus six and a half against the statue of Kirk Cousins.

The Texans, who I think we both believe in, minus six and a half against Chicago. We're going to bring all those lines down by six points. That is plus 140 on FanDuel. Lamar is 32 and 11 at home. Vegas has four road wins in 2022 and 2023 in this year. They haven't played on the road yet. Raiders D gave up 176 yards rushing last week. Ravens, just run it down their throats. Just run it. I don't need to make the case to bet against the statue Kirk Cousins and then...

We both believe in this Houston team. We do. We're going to put a special 200K on that plus 140. Let's go. I love that one. You know I do. Those are the million dollar picks for week two. You can see House this weekend on the Ringer Sunday pregame show. Your audio actually worked.

Oh, it's a miracle. We got a new mic. You know, we're making, we're learning along the way here. It was a great show. I thoroughly enjoyed it. It's on YouTube TV. It's on FanDuel, on their channel. But when you go to YouTube TV at 11 o'clock Eastern time, there it is. I'm not coming on this week, but I think that young whippersnapper, Dabundo, is going to come in for the last 20 minutes to fill my spot. Yeah. The white AD. So those are the Million Dollar Picks. That's our segment. House, I hope you're back.

In week three, and I hope I win our Argy pick. See you on Sunday on YouTube TV. Can't wait!

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