The State of Fantasy Football, 25 Best NBA Players, and Million-Dollar Picks With Danny Heifetz and Joe House
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We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Put up a new Rewatchables on Monday. We did Body Double, and you can watch it on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel. You can watch all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And if you like our bets that we do on Million Dollar Picks here, which has been doing pretty well lately, on the Ringer Sunday pregame show on YouTube TV, all of Sal's podcast stuff, the Ringer Gambling Show, we are now putting all of that stuff, our favorite ones,

on our own ringer section, which is within FanDuel's NFL section. We have a page or a little tab that you click called the ringer specials. And we launched it last week. It went great. And that's where Million Dollar Picks, a whole bunch of other stuff are going. So if you need ideas for parlays, features, teasers, whatever, go check that out because we're doing it every weekend from now on. Coming up on this podcast, Danny Heifetz joined Joe House and I talked about the state of fantasy football.

through nine weeks. Who are the winners? Who are the losers? What did we learn? Did we learn any big picture lessons for future seasons?

And then who should you pick up? Who should you try to trade for? We just deep dove fantasy because why not? And then we talked about the Giants. We talked about who Bill Belichick is going to coach next. House stuck around. We did million dollar picks. And then last but not least, we did some basketball because I think we're going to start doing that after million dollar picks. Just a little nightcap NBA section. There were a lot of good games last night, a lot to talk about. I also wanted to run my ringer 100, my top 25 past house because we got to turn those ballots in soon.

I'm not going to talk about the election today. I'm probably going to do it at some point over the next couple of weeks. I want to do it with the right guests, but I'm still sorting my thoughts from, you know, let's bring a pro jam. Yeah.

All right, we are taping this on Thursday afternoon. Joe House is here, as he always is, for Million Dollar Picks. And Danny Heifetz is here from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show and the ringer.com, a great website. Also, in a big...

Big New York fan. Interesting month for New York. Have you recovered? Yeah, it's great. I mean, it started well when the WNBA title was handed by the referees to the Liberty. So that was really cool. And frankly, ever since then, there's been a lot of karmic retribution on every front. So it's been strange after that. But at least we got a title handed. That was kind of cool. House, where's our karmic retribution for Lynx 5-1? Still waiting. I think Joe Sy has it.

Oh, Josiah has it. Yeah, Josiah has it. We're going to talk fantasy because we are at the sweet spot of the fantasy season. We have nine weeks in the book. We have some winners and some losers and some disappointments and some surprises. And then more importantly, we have...

The stretch run coming. House and I are in a keeper league together. House, how's your team doing? Terrible. I have one among the worst receivers in the league and you can't win if you have bad receivers. Oh, well, I can't wait to talk about them. My team's doing great in that league and terrible in the other league. But Heifetz, Lamar, not only the MVP for fantasy, but every year there's a theory, just pick an offense and grab all the best guys from it.

When you're doing all your shows with Danny and Craig, did Baltimore ever come up as the team that would be the team to do that with? Because they have the number one QB, the number one running back, and then Flowers is in the top 10 receivers. But did anyone see that coming? Yeah, it did. So, I mean, I live in D.C., just like House, and I went to Baltimore camp, and I just remember coming back from OTAs the first time just seeing, they're not wearing pads or anything, but just the first time I saw Lamar Jackson stick the ball at Derrick Henry's

gut for like a read option even on air. I was just like, this looks iconic. It feels iconic. It's like a thunder lightning backfield at the same time. And I wish we had gone in on it even more because if, yeah, if you had just stacked Lamar, Derrick, Henry and Zay Flowers, like you'd be cooking. Even you could have survived the Mark Andrews stuff

I mean, the Ravens are amazing. And yeah, every year there's an offense that you want that you can see coming. And then there's offense you probably would not have seen coming that maybe, you know, you could take a shot on. And yeah, Baltimore is absolutely that team this year that you wish you had been, you know, got the lightning in a bottle. Lamar would, at least in normal leagues, Lamar, 249.5 points. Now he hasn't had a bye week yet, but he's...

23 above the next guy, Baker Mayfield, ironically. And then Daniels and Allen are the only two over 200. Henry is 35 points higher than any running back, which is Saquon Barkley. Kamara's after him, but Henry's almost at 200 points. And then Zay Flowers almost at 100 points. House, is there a chance the Washington Seawords-

Could be a team you would want to have the guys from down the stretch here with McLaurin and Daniels and whatever the hell you got going on running back? I think just Daniels and McLaurin, I think. Maybe some Zach Ertz, sprinkling a little Ertz, and then if you're really desperate...

you know, depending on the size of your roster, there could be a flex spot for Austin Eckler here and there. You know, he gets catches and occasional runs. I had him last week. He was good last week. He was sneaky. Yeah. Well, because B-Rob was out. So yeah.

There have been, you know, they've been swapping injuries the weeks that Eckler are out. And if B-Rob's healthy, you get him going. But that would be it. It's not an expansive list. No, it's not. Honestly, I was hoping that Washington would get another receiver at the trade deadline, but it's okay. We're good. I like where we're at. Heifetz, there's out of the win your league guys, which you always talk about, which I think is a good way to look at it. I think Lamar became a winner league guy. And I think Derek Henry did too, based on what you paid for them.

versus what they've actually produced. Saquon borderline, especially if he keeps coming the rest of the way. Who else? Who else is a win your league guy this year? I mean, I mean, I mean, Saquon, absolutely. Because I mean, think where you got him. I think the big picture look at fantasy this year, because I don't know if it's a player as much as a position.

I think the defining story of fantasy for the first half of the season, all the wide receivers are hurt. And honestly, all the running backs are healthy. The first two running backs off the board, Christian McCaffrey, obviously it's a catastrophe. Breece Hall, we call him Fleece Hall. He's been disappointing. The next like 16 running backs were pretty good picks outside of Travis Etienne. And then you look at receiver. I think that, I mean, we can go into receivers in a minute, but the short answer to your question is every receiver was almost, except four were like bad picks this year.

And so it's really, I think it's less like if you hammered running backs in the middle outside the first round, then you're probably in a pretty good spot. Right. Well, it's funny that the running backs are doing that much better than even the best receiver, right? If you just look at Chase has 115 points, which is the highest right now, which is pretty low in general for receivers. Jefferson's second at 110. Nobody else has over 100. But then you go to running backs.

And like Henry Barkley, Kamara Gibbs, Kyron Williams, B John's at one 23. He's higher than any receiver. So I wonder, uh,

Are we moving back to the model where you have to get the two running backs first and then you worry about the rest of the team after? I'm just trying to figure out what this season means big picture for a draft because it feels like we keep changing strategies. Quarterbacks don't matter. Now it really matters if you have Lamar. It's better to lock down these number one receivers. Now that doesn't matter as much because you need to get running backs. Where are we now?

I think the receiver thinks a total one-off fluke year and that next year everyone's going to be like tech running backs and next year receivers will be a value. I just looked at the top 30 receivers. You just go through them. The ones that were in the order they were drafted this year.

Tyreek Hill, the Tua situation was awful. CeeDee Lamb has been great, but he's hurt now. Amonra St. Brown's been good, but he hasn't been great. Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase were fantastic. After that, AJ Brown's been hurt. Garrett Wilson started slow, but it's been good. Pukunuku missed two months. Marvin Harrison Jr. had two good games. Deebo Samuels been hurt and had pneumonia. Drake London is solid, but just hurt his hip.

Devontae Adams missed multiple games. Nico Collins is on injury reserve. Crystal Lobby's career may be over. Brandon Ayuk's on IR. Mike Evans out multiple weeks. Cooper Cupp missed a month. DK Metcalf's hurt. DJ Moore has 33 yards more than he has once in six weeks. Jalen Waddle's invisible. Stephon thinks Torrance ACL.

Michael Pittman has a back issue. He's got over 37 yards twice the whole year. Neighbors has not been the same since the concussion. Amari Cooper at Deshaun Watson. Pickens has one touchdown. Teagans has a quad injury. Tank Dell hasn't had 62 yards in a game till this week. Rasheed Rice out for the season. Chris Godwin out for the season. Who were you supposed to take? And I think that's the thing. It's just weird. Like, the top 30 guys, all but four, are bad or hurt.

Yeah. My, my, the league that I'm not in with house with Sal, the knockout league, I built around Cooper cup, DJ Moore and Garrett Wilson. That was like 120 bucks. Right. And Garrett Wilson has a ton of targets every week. And he's actually been a little bit better than maybe you'd think these last few weeks, but just, you know, cup got hurt and more has been a disaster house. Do you have a strategy when you go into a fantasy league or is it just how many drinks can you have and stay coherent on the zoom? What is it?

It's both. It's both things. And get off a few dick jokes. You know, that's always an obligation and a requirement. But I look, you know, the receiver thing, I was bullish on Dalton Kincaid as a tight end who might get receiver-like looks. That hasn't come to pass. But my own receiver core, we just, you know, you hear him right out of Danny's mouth. Jalen Waddle, sucktastic. Devontae Smith, second fiddle.

makes a spectacular play once every three games. Great. DJ Moore, that DJ Moore, Caleb Williams was supposed to be a real thing. BS. I paid. How much did I pay for him?

I don't even want to too much. Yeah. Yeah. He was 30s and 40s. 28, 28. I paid for in our auction league. Yeah. Just take that 28 and stick it where the sun don't shine. That's all. It, it feels like more and more these waiver wire guys going above what you feel like you should be spending. Like I have in the, in the knockout league, which I'm probably going to get, you know, I'm not going to even make the playoffs, but I, I overspent on Hopkins. Yeah.

Cause I just liked the matchup with him in my homes. And I felt like,

you know, if he's ever going to succeed on a team and look like the Hopkins from four years ago, it's with my homes. And then you watch the Monday night game. And now if you're redoing who you'd want on your fantasy team going forward, Hopkins would be this amazing guy. But the point is he was on the fucking waiver wire because he was on the Titans. So, you know, and Tampa had the same thing with like that. Jane, the McMillan was hot for a week. Now this week it's a Sterling Shepard or what's that guy's name?

That's who it is, right? Yeah, Sterling Shepard. Yeah, who had to play Thompson. He's the Achilles out of the Giants, and now he's playing for Tampa. It's crazy. So every week there's a receiver, and it's like whoever kind of looks out with one of those guys or whoever drafted Chubba Hubbard for a dollar. The big picture point to me is I really continue to just hate fantasy with every fiber in my body, and I really don't know why we do it to ourselves. It's really stupid and dumb stuff.

a huge waste of time. And I think the answer is it's a chemical addiction I have. I don't know about you guys, but I think that I. Oh, it's like it's like like vaping. Yeah, basically, you know, it's bad. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I don't really want to be participating in it anymore, but I can't stop. But no, it's the whole thing's ridiculous. I think that honestly, going into a season, I think it's important to just figure out there's like four lessons to take or

or maybe there's two lessons to take and four lessons people think they should take. And I think half the key is like, for example, you know, going into the next season, people are gonna be like, oh, well, the receivers are bad. Take running backs. And it's like, yeah, they all got hurt with hamstring injuries. It was kind of weird. Don't zag too hard. Exactly. Yeah. Don't zag too hard. Similarly with the waiver thing, everyone had Kyron Williams and Puka Dukua, though.

biggest waiver additions of the whole year were made in week one. So everyone this year was like, Isaiah likely. And it's like, well, actually, some years, it's a lot more like two years ago, Jarek McKinnon from December 1st on in 2022 had like led the league in receiving touchdowns. And like every now and then there's two or three waiver guys who shift the whole season. But you don't but everyone just thinks about last season and has amnesia about anything before that. So it's just like paying attention to what's happening right now. It's honestly half the thing.

Let me recommend this. I'm in a fantasy league that is literally called the no one gives a shit league. And we, every single person in the league sets up auto draft. It

The draft takes two and a half minutes. Nobody does one thing. All we do is get the thing set up. There's 10 teams. I don't know how big the roster is. You know why? Because I don't give a shit. But it does give you the opportunity against those nine buddies to do the waiver wire. And, you know, we have like a standard waiver wire thing. And really, it's just an opportunity. As I go week to week, it's like...

This guy, oh, I love this guy. I haven't seen him in a while. Let me send him a funny note right now. Oh, this guy, F this guy. I'm going to stick it to him. Let me try and, you know, get in the wave of wire and steal the great defense this week. But really, that to me, that would be my recommendation. If you insist on playing fantasy, that's one way to approach it. Craig Horlbeck's greatest take of all time. You know, shameless plug here for the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Craig's best take ever is that prepping for fantasy football is a huge waste of time.

It's almost like William Goldman's. Nobody knows anything about Hollywood. It's probably true. Well, we see it every year because there's like, I'm in a draft with Brad, who, by the way, beat me last week. Crazy Brad in the South draft, who took nine running backs out of 18 players in the draft. And by the way, I don't think he's traded any of them yet.

And now everybody's trying to trade for his running backs. It looks like a genius. But as he was doing it, we thought he was completely insane because he is insane. I actually think, I swear to God, I actually think that that might be the best strategy in fantasy. You know why? Because when people do all these advanced statistic modeling and everything you could do with fantasy football, I actually think what people forget to include is the value of trades. And I think what people forget is that, oh, in theory, receivers are worth this and quarterbacks are worth this, running backs are worth this.

But three or let's say four weeks into the season when there are injuries and you start to get bye weeks, everyone in the world is like, I'll give you a receiver for a running back.

And no one wants to trade a running back for a receiver three weeks of the season. You take a little risk that someone gets hurt week one or two, or, you know, you take a risk that you have a Samir White who just immediately sucks. But for the most part, if you make it three weeks, you can flip David Montgomery or Joe Mixon for someone who was drafted 30 spots higher if you wait three weeks, which if you look at it by the principles of any other form of real investing is like incredible. You really probably should just take 10 running backs and then just keep four and flip the other four and no two will get hurt.

See, I was ahead of my time back when quarterbacks, it was harder to find 10 of them when I was just drafting up quarterbacks. And you guys made fun of me for that. But there was one year where I had like five quarterbacks and it was like, guess what? Anyone gets hurt, the road goes through me. But now it's like, you can freaking pick up Bo Nix for a dollar and all of a sudden he's starting. It feels like there's 25 quarterbacks. Drake May. Drake May ran for 95 yards last week. Yeah, Drake May might be a borderline starter. All right, so-

Biggest disappointments this year. And I'm going to rule out injury guys. I don't think it's fair to be like, I'm so disappointed in Nico Collins that he got hurt. These have to be... Like, Dak was disappointing before he got hurt, right? Yeah. It's disappointing if...

You, like what I did in my league with Sal, I thought Nick Chubb was coming back sooner and it was going to be healthier. So I'm like, I'm going to lock down this Nick Chubb-Jerome Ford combo. And then it turns out, hey, Nick Chubb lost every ligament in his knee. Maybe it was going to take a little longer for him. I can't get mad at him for that. But you start looking at like Brees Hall, who was the number one pick in the draft, right? And maybe that wasn't his fault. Maybe it's like how House's team took Alex Saar

with the number two pick in the NBA draft. Oh, are you going to defend Alex Sarr now? Why are we firing shots? I'm not firing shots. It's like the draft wasn't that good. And it's like, we take Alex Sarr. You had to take somebody. The fantasy draft was good. And Brees Hall wasn't supposed to be just anybody. It was supposed to be a top five offense with this incredible offensive line. And the 40-year-old, you know, lightness and darkness drug experimenter

We're supposed to lead them to the promised land. Don't play the drugs. It was Bijan. It was Brees Hall. Who's the third? Brees. So, I mean, well, McCaffrey. And McCaffrey was supposed to be first. And he got hurt for the year. But to your point, you know, I actually pat ourselves on the back. I think Ringer Fantasy Football, you know, our rankings, I think we were one of the only sites to really move McCaffrey down off the first pick. We moved him to 12th.

12th and then back to fifth. But we moved him off first, which I would pat ourselves in the back. But then we moved Brees Hall to first, which, man, he was like one of the worst picks you could... Not one of the worst, but I would say, honestly, the most disappointing running back relative to where you take him. I'm putting McCaffrey to the side. But if you had said, you know what, we have Derrick Henry first and Saquon Barkley second, people would have thought you were on drugs with Rodgers. We joke all the time. I'm...

I'm curious what you think, House. We joke all the time that we want to tattoo things on our body like that movie Memento where we forget at the end of the season and then we get to July. We literally had a tattoo at the top of my notes for 2024. I had, don't rank Brie Sullivan or Kyron Williams. We did it anyway. And I feel like our rankings at the end of last season, if you had told us Derrick Henry would go to Baltimore and Saquon would go to Philly, House, you should have just ranked them one, too. I'm like, I don't even know how we talked ourselves out of this. Yes, yes. I mean, that's right because both of those situations were incredible situations. They were unbelievable.

all upside situations for both players. And let's, you know, again, give credit where credit's due. The incredibly handsome Craig Horlbeck. Bill Simmons and I, in August, were together. Craig came on and gave us his top five. Derrick Henry was his number one under-the-radar fantasy selection. So you guys were on it. I mean, America should have been on it. All of the models should have been on it. Those two guys have been the best. And look at the numbers. There they are.

Well, maybe Derrick Henry should just be treated like LeBron at this point, where it's just like, just assume he's going to keep doing this until he gets hurt. You're better off betting on it happening versus it not happening. But if we're talking real disappointments, we're talking about where you can get mad at somebody, as we do in fantasy, even though it's all fake and it's not these guys' fault that we drafted them. If you were all in on Anthony Richardson...

which I think people really spent on him. Right. And they're like, I don't care if he's accurate, he's going to run the ball. He's Cam Newton. Um, and that's a disaster. Now you, you can audible at the quarterback position. Um, you can't audible if you're spending 28 to $40 on DJ more. So I think he has to be up there with, you're talking about first team, all NBA fantasy football disappointments. Um, and then Travis ETN is another one because he,

He was somewhere in the seven to 11 range for running backs, maybe 12. I don't know, but he was like in that second tier. He killed me in one of my leagues. He hasn't been good any week and he's always got the red flag with him. You never know what's going on. He's on a shit team. Tank Bigsby kind of took his, took a lot of his plays and his minutes. And that one is just like a sunk cost, right?

I think ETN quietly might be the answer here, which he's not nearly as famous or as interesting, frankly, as Anthony Richardson. But you're right. You know what? If you have Richardson, it sucked. You're probably angriest at Anthony Richardson, but you can add Bo Nix. I actually think ETN is the single most frustrating player fantasy maybe entire season because you probably took him in the second round. You might have taken him either before or just probably right. There has to be like we need a value over responsibility.

We need like anger over replacement. Like you look back at your draft recap. Fantasy over, yeah. Yeah, because you look back at the draft recap and you're like, oh, it went Derrick Henry, Saquon, Kyron Williams, and then I got Travis Etienne. Like that's the worst thing you can look back at and see. He's better when he's out because then you play someone else. When you play Travis Etienne, he gets two and a half points. It's the worst possible thing. It's a farce.

It's the fantasy anger replacement level. Yeah, exactly. This is good. So ETN had the highest spark. Oh yeah. I think Devante Adams has to be on there too. There's still a chance for him to salvage it, but I was surprised that he was going where he was going.

One of the things I've noticed with fantasy, and especially because I've been doing it since 1990, house is probably somewhere in the mid nineties, but we always discount the awesome receiver who's got shit quarterbacks. And it's like, well, no, it'll be fine. It's Devante Adams. And it's like,

It actually won't be fine. He's got Aiden O'Connell and Gardner Minshew throwing the ball. Guess what? It's not going to be fine. And then you watch that quarterback show and he's bitching about Garoppolo the whole time. And it's like, he's probably not going to handle this well either. So I was, that was one of the ones where I was amazed people were talking to him. I think Debo, and I know he got hurt.

But I also feel like that's a buyer beware when you're spending money on Debo because he gets hurt every year. And the position that him to me, him and Puka are, if you take those guys and you watch them play football, those guys are in car collisions 10 times a game, whether they're blocking or going over the middle. I don't want any part of that stuff. So I don't, I don't feel bad for that. Here's the other one I have for you. Laporta. Laporta is being treated like Kelsey, right?

What happened? We joke on our show that there are certain players that are like, did you know that there's a fourth Jonas brother?

There's actually four. Is there really? Yeah, I know, right? I didn't know this either. Craig told me. And we joke that there are certain players every year that are like the fourth Jonas brother. Like you look at the Detroit Lions and everyone on that team's incredible. Goff is, I mean, they have more touchdowns than Goff in completions in the last six weeks. You have Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery are crushing. Amonra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, when he's not suspended, is incredible. And then, oh yeah, I forgot Sam Laporta's on that team. And it's like, you watch the Lions game, they put up 49 points. You're like, Laporta must have done something. No, he's blocking.

It's brutal. It really upsets me. I was a believer in the Kelsey thing, but we did the Kelsey is another one in that Derrick Henry LeBron conversation where we always look for guys to take over Kelsey new up and commerce. They did with Kyle Pitts for a couple of years and, you know, Laporta super disappointing. Kincaid's on there. Waddle and Tyreek, I think,

Both have to be on there, but you can't play them with the two a thing. Dude, Waddle hasn't had 50 yards since week one. Waddle, you watch the Dolphins and you forget he's on the team for like two hours. And then they'll throw him like a bubble screen. You'll be like, oh my God, it's Jalen Waddle. I forgot he was on the Dolphins. Mahomes. Now, he's the best player in the league and they're undefeated. Well, he's one of the best players in the league because there's a real Lamar case, but...

It felt like his fantasy value started to bleed over with his real life value in a way that didn't really make sense because he's running less and less every year. Did you notice, though, because in all my drafts, he was more expensive than he probably should have been. Is there something to that? I think that Mahomes is so famous that, yeah, it affected. I mean, just to give you an idea, I got this from Ian Harden. It's a fantasy life. Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud have fewer top 12 finishes this year weekly.

Mahomes and Stroud, fewer top 12 weekly combined than Daniel Jones. Oh, my God. So that's what Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud are doing. Well, if you took Mahomes, that's on you because all you had to do was watch football last season. Like, you know, it's a different offense, a different system, a different set of weapons. Like, you know, if you took Mahomes and paid for it,

You get what you deserve. Well, and then the other disappointment was if you back Caleb over Daniels, right? If you're like, I believe in a rookie QB, Caleb. With weapons. All these weapons, and you just kind of overlook all the Daniels buzz, which House did not overlook. And you, Heifetz, you probably noticed too because that's where he lived. But there was real breadcrumbs with Daniels the whole preseason and everything.

Yet there it was. He was six to one for our friends, a rookie of the year. He was like a one or two dollar guy in fantasy drafts. Everybody kind of overlooked it. I think the other thing with fantasy, I think sometimes I think the simplest way to explain why we forget the lessons we thought we learned is that it's that it's kind of like basketball. You look back at a game and you see a score.

But actually, especially I feel like now, it's a game of runs, right? Like someone was up 18 and then it gets erased and then someone's up to one. And it's like fantasy. It's like, I don't know, the guy I keep thinking of is like DeAndre Swift, who looked like he should get benched for the first three or four weeks of the season in September. And then in October, DeAndre Swift's like a top eight running back in fantasy. And it's all kind of like that. And you look back and you look back and you remember it a certain way, but the

But the reality is DeAndre Hopkins is someone like you were saying, who was released by a lot of people. And you know what? Going forward, Kansas City's the first player who's actually an A or an A plus at catching the football Patrick Holmes has ever played with at any level his entire career. And you're like, he could be a top five receiver going forward purely because he could catch the ball from the homes. And so but we don't think of it that way when we look back. You know what I mean? We see the whole thing. We remembered a certain way. Let's take a quick break. And then I want to get guys you're looking at the rest of the way.

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All right, Heifetz, we got like four weeks left until the playoffs.

Are there waiver wire, deep stealth waiver wire guys you like? Are there guys we should be trading for that hopefully other people in your league aren't listening to this podcast? Is there anybody arrow pointing up that you're just staring at right now?

Yeah, I mean, if you want to trade candidates, I think it's Devon Achan, the running back for the Dolphins. It's a little tough because you're going to have to pay a lot more than you would have three weeks ago because two is back and he had a good week last week. But the thing is, I don't know if you could give up too much because I think Achan's probably the best bet along with Derrick Henry would be the number one running back in fantasy the rest of the way, the veal chop. And I basically, it's never too late. You know, change your order of the veal chop. Just do it. You know, it's a little awkward to call over the waiter, but just go get the veal chop. You know, House didn't like that veal chop analogy because House always likes the veal chop.

Yeah. Well, wait, I misunderstood. I thought you were saying it was a good thing. Well, I was saying the veal chop, it's a, it's an order where half the time you love it. And then half the time they didn't cook it perfectly. And you're mad. You spent $89 on it.

Oh, well, then you're ordering it from the wrong place. Never, never, never risk a veal chop. Never risk a veal chop. You never go in and play veal chop roulette. No. You must know that it's magnificent and then you go have it and it's magnificent. But then how do you know if it's magnificent until you get the veal chop? You let the fools before you go. What if I'm just at a steakhouse in Chicago that I've never been to and they have the veal chop? What do I do? Get a steak. Unless you walk in and they say it's the famous veal chop.

But that's exactly what we did. We let someone else get HN. They're the fool. And then they had the whole thing. Now you trade for them in week 10. Yeah. House is incredibly excited. This is not an ad for the deep fried turkey sandwich by Arby's in time for Thanksgiving. There's an ad. I sent House a

picture. You haven't had it yet, though. The nearest Arby's to me is like 40 minutes away. You think that I haven't budgeted time in my schedule for later this evening to go out to that Arby's. But I have. Yes, I have. I'm going to go. Turkey sandwich. It's November. It's all Thanksgiving food all the time. I made cord bread stuffing over the weekend just to get it going, just to get the gooses, the juices and gooses flowing. Both of them.

Can I get the cornbread stuffing recipe? Send that to him. Send him after the pod. Who else do you have? If it's AJ and who else? If you need to trade target Jameson Williams for the Lions as someone who people might be frustrated with him because he was suspended. But I mean, man, the Lions often just get a piece of that. And then if you want waiver ads, this isn't the most sexy advice, but I would say again, every year there's five players that just tripled.

triple your odds of winning the championship. And then three are drafted and two are added on waivers. And this year it was like Derek Henry, Lamar, Jim Daniels. They didn't get hurt. Chris Godwin, Rishi Rice. But then waivers this year, I don't think it's happened yet. I don't think those players, maybe Kate Otten for the Bucs was that guy. But going forward, the guys, if Kyron Williams for the Rams gets hurt, Blake Corum is the guy that I think, you know, could just be the top five running back for the month of December. And like only if Kyron Williams gets hurt. And then similarly, Braylon Allen for Brees Hall, where I actually think Braylon Allen has become a better

fit in this specific Rogers offense. That's not fun to sit here and be like, oh, you're trying to arbitrage an injury. It sucks. But that kind of is how things get decided all the time in fantasy. So those are the highest upside players. And also weirdly, Xavier Leguette, the Panthers Carolina receiver with the greatest accent of all time. I also just feel like he's going to get a ton of garbage time targets over the last two months of the season. You know, there's been some quarterback injuries like Lawrence is out, right? Bryce Young is playing, which almost counts as a quarterback injury.

but one guy that I thought had a chance to really come on, but now that Lawrence has health and it's, I don't think it's going to happen with Mac Jones is Brian Thomas jr. Who's been surprisingly good from a fantasy type, but I also feel like there's been times when he's been open that Lawrence has overthrown him or there's been a PI, but I was kind of looking at him. I have him on a team too, but,

for him to like make a jump. I was trying to figure out every year right around now, a rookie receiver makes a giant jump, right? So 10 could be Leggett. It could be, um, uh, what's his face? Uh, I don't think it's gonna be Roma Dunze. Well, I think Roma Dunze, it could be because he's the guy that if you've had Roma Dunze this long, like you're fed up with him. So he's cheap.

But Ladd-McConkie, but to your point, you're totally right. It's always like rookie receivers. It's the opposite of rookie wall. They get better as the season goes on over and over. Any rookie receiver, frankly, is a good bet. Brian Thomas is a good one, too, because he's been good. But now he's banged up and Trevor Lawrence is banged up. So if you're going to make the playoffs. Yeah, maybe Lawrence comes back in December, though. Maybe you can, you know, maybe. I'm staring at Xavier Worthy as a possibility, too, because it feels like he's open three times a game. But it's it's too risky. House likes him.

I like it because that's what Hopkins delivers to that offense, right? Now that Patrick has his possession guy, the guy he knows that if he puts it within a five-yard radius, the dude's going to get it. Now you can try and spring those big plays and we'll get worthy for those explosive touchdowns. Speaking of explosive touchdowns, I want to ask about my guy, Amari DeMarcato. DeMarcato? Yeah. Wow, you really – what are you talking about?

What are you, 80 years old? You can't say his name? Look up the name and you try and say it, you son of a bitch. You're like, you of all people. Look up the name and you try and say it. House, do you know that's actually how I got hired here is I'm the only person in the world worse at pronouncing names than Bill? Yeah, Heifetz is really abominable. I always like to have one guy on staff that's worse than I am. I didn't even submit a resume. I submitted a resume. He's the super,

Super Marcado. That's what I'm going to call him because he busted that run at the end of the first half that really sucked all the life out of the bears. And every week I look on and James Cook has something next to his name. Oh, Connor. I did it again. James Connor. Always. There's always something red next to that dude. Last year was James Cook who in the second half of the year went nuts. And then I watched that Ray Davis and Ray Davis was another one. Before we wrap up fantasy.

So I told you I was in this guillotine league and I sent the Danny's and Craig the lineup, but I'm still alive heading into week 10. This is by far the best football league I've been in. It really gets fun when the players get weeded out, when everybody starts running out of auction money, when there's big ass players on the table, but nobody has money left. Everybody has a good team now. So you really have to put time and care into everything.

Who, who you're starting as like your two receivers, your two running backs, your two flex. We've had Lamar. So it's been like, you know, we've, we've been kind of cruising, but Lamar has the bi-week coming up. So you're looking ahead. We both of our starting running backs are out in week 12. So you're looking ahead, trying to patch together. But I do wonder, is this just the future of fantasy and it ties into where our society is now?

where we need everything to be decided fast and we don't want to... You watch a show and it's like, I watched one episode of that Hulu show. I didn't like it. Oh, I tried Disclaimer. I'm out. Maybe this is just how fantasy should be. In the league I'm in with House...

I think I'm eight and one and I, and I'm like, Oh, whatever. I'm going to make the playoffs. Like, I don't really care this guillotine league. I'm like, Oh my God, what do we do? We have $39 left. Is this just where things are going? Yeah. It's you kids these days just need enough dopamine. You know what I mean? You never get enough, but it's a dopamine league. Yeah, exactly. You know, I mean, maybe that's why, you know, you're never winning these leagues bill. You're eight and one and you're just not fine tuning. You know, you're moving on. Like that's not good enough. Like you got to calibrate. I think, no, I think you're right though, because you know what the real answer is?

I think that everyone, you know, you have one fantasy league. It's great. Maybe you have two fantasy leagues and that's awesome. I do this for my job and I actually find three or four plus and it's hard to like care and manage for everything. Four is my number. It's my job where I'm like, oh, I would say that it should be the future of work fantasy leagues, because if you have an office league, no one's office league is like their number one fantasy league.

Yeah, good point. And so the people who are going to check out, your coworkers checking out, guillotine is a perfect office fantasy football league because it's never going to be your primary, but that way you can check out once you're out. But when you're in it, it's still pretty fun. House, I think it solves the basketball fantasy problem that we've had

we, how's that? I just left another basketball league. We were in, we, we've been in a bunch of different NBA leagues really since the nineties. And we've never really been happy with any of them because you have situations like, well, you have this week where there's already five guys out. And it's like, Oh, I started Tyrese maxing. He got hurt on a Monday and now I'm screwed. And, um, and I wonder if NBA guillotine is, is like a, like a way to do this. Hmm. Good

The problem with fantasy basketball. Yeah, that's good. Cause like you can't be streaming power forwards on Thursdays and like, that's how you win a fantasy basketball league. Like that's just ridiculous.

But that's not a bad idea. Especially in the rest management era. I don't even know how you... Like, nobody plays... Basically, you have to take Tatum or some of these dudes that are going to play 70, 75 games a year. Respectfully, I'm never playing NBA Fantasy again. Not season long. I mean, it's preposterous. You can't put guys in your lineup and then find out two days later that he tugged a hamstring or whatever. They're going to sit him for three games. I mean, not even real injuries. You know, I just... I'm out, but...

I think what you are describing as the potential go forward for fantasy football is kind of brilliant. It's, it's to me, it's one or the other. It's either the, no one gives a shit where everybody auto drafts and it's super fun. And we just, you know, uh, you only pay attention to waiver wire stuff, try and build a team through the wire or it's,

guillotine. We're literally, you chop the head off. I love it so much. I wish the league that we're in together, BS, the large spot league that my head was already chopped off because I'm just, I'm trying my best. I want integrity. You can just be out. I'm giving integrity. I'd prefer to be out. I don't want to watch DJ more anymore. I'm done with him. That's, I forgot to mention that part. Hi Fitz, the guillotine league.

It's brutal when you get knocked out, right? Everybody says goodbye. It's basically like The Bachelor. You're out. I'm sorry. Please say goodbye. You hug everyone. You get walked out to the limo. But then you don't have to ever think about the league again. The league I'm in with Sal and those guys, I'm two and seven. I still feel like I have to make moves. I have two running. It's $5 a move. I'm mad I'm spending $10 so I can try to go three and seven. I'm like, I just went out of this. Please. Yeah.

Get me out. And then if I don't make moves, I'm an asshole, right? People are like, oh, you're not filming a competitive team. I was just like, fuck this. I hate this league. Hyphens, before we go, we're about to do million dollar picks. Your favorite team, the New York football giants are playing the worst team in football. A team coming off a win last week that for the Panthers to win two games in a row with the shitty team they have would be improbable and unbelievable. The giants line is,

is I think six and a half and nobody's allowed to tease them. My question is, could the Giants beat the hell out of the Panthers? Because like right now I'm in Boston. There's some adjusted line Giants on FanDuel. Giants to win by 14 or more plus 240. Giants to win by 17 or more plus 340. Giants to win by 20 or more plus 480.

or the Giants to win by 24 or more plus 840. Could the Giants run up the score on the Panthers in your opinion?

Yes. Yes, they could. I don't know if eight to one is good enough for a 24 point win, but like, yes, they have the Giants absolutely good because first of all, let me tell you something. If I know one thing's going to happen, it's going to be that the Giants are going to screw up their chances to get a quarterback like the Giants had the sixth pick in the draft last year. They beat the teams ahead of them four times. They beat your Patriots once and you got, you know, Drake May. They beat Arizona got Marvin Harrison and they beat Washington twice.

twice and if they just hadn't done that they would have gotten Jane Daniels they're gonna do that again there's like nine teams that have two wins the Giants are gonna win this game and also I know you guys do million dollar picks and I know that you every week you're like oh we're not supposed to do teasers I'm done with the teasers

Do some teasers. Tease the Giants. Six points. You know, the Giants giving a half a point. Tease the Eagles to beat the Cowboys by half a point at one point. We have the Eagles. NFC's, Giants, Eagles. Like, the Eagles are going to destroy Dallas. I don't know why that's just seven points. Dallas can't stop the run. And most yards, percentage of their yards in the entire league is from passing and Dax out. So the Eagles are going to run all over the Cowboys.

And then the Giants are going to win this game. I know it because the alternative is I'll be happy with the Giants. There's no chance. So the Giants, this will be the week when everybody's like, oh, we have the eighth pick instead of the second. It was because we won that stupid Carolina game. Yes, 100 percent. The Giants defense is good. And the Panthers defense is horrific. I mean, can I can I read you some scores from the Panthers this year? I'm here. I'm here to week one. They lost by 37.

Week two, they lost by 23 to the Chargers. By the way, they lost to 37 to the fucking Saints. They lost by 23 to the Chargers. They lost by 26 to the Bears. They lost by 18 to Atlanta. They lost by 33 to your team. And they lost by 14 to Bo Nix and got mad that they felt like the Broncos were running up to score. So they've already had six games where they've lost by 14 or more.

Why wouldn't we, why wouldn't we do an adjusted with the giants? I, I could totally see them running it up on this crappy Panthers team. The, the super fun thing to add in there is like, do you think Carolina is a, as a franchise has their shit together enough to really get this travel down? Do you think that like,

all the trains are arriving at the station at the same time. Oh, because it's a Germany game. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, they're in Germany. Do you think that like Carolina's organizational skill, what they've demonstrated in terms of their ability to navigate logistics, it's like, oh, yeah, those guys will all be in perfect shape in this game against the Giants. I like the only thing that makes me tap the brakes in any way, shape, or form when it comes to the Giants is that left tackle. Andrew Thomas is still out on offense.

Yeah, you don't really have an offensive line. It's a good point. Panthers are the worst pass rusher in the NFL. It's true. That is the rebuttal. Danny's right. You parlay a Giants alt line with an Eagles alt line, and you get like 20 to 1. Wow. I do like this NFC least trying to get in on a way to cash in a parlay or teaser. I'm fine with it. Can I? I feel embarrassed to admit this, but I kind of like the Giants' skill position, guys.

Yeah, no. Why are you embarrassed? Tracy's good. I think Tyrone Tracy's good. He's good. Singletary's a good backup. Neighbors is super exciting. Tyrone Tracy's the argument for why the Giants let Saquon Barkley go. And as much as it's been crushing to watch Saquon be amazing and reverse hurtling over dudes, like the reality is he's on a win-now team and he looks better. But like Tyrone Tracy's a fifth or sixth round pick. He's making...

eight or nine percent of what Saquon makes and he's like you can't you can't criticize it with how good he's looked even though it was a terrible move to let your best guy go but I agree with you like Saquon on paper it makes sense it's just it's tough he goes to uh one of the teams you're trying to beat have you talked yourself into Belichick or Vrabel yet

I can't tell you how ready I am to hand this entire team to Bill Belichick. I can't even begin to describe how quickly, how quickly I would hand Dexter Lawrence to Bill Belichick by sprint. Give me, yeah, whatever. Sure. Belichick is on a six month contract.

trying to prove to everybody what an awesome personality he is and that it's actually not true that he's a curmudgeon. And here's how much I know about football and look how personable I am. Also, he can get one of these jobs in February. I think he likes day ball. I think that part's probably awkward. And it feels like for the Giants, it would have to be a complete house cleaning, right? It's like they've gotten rid of everybody. I still feel like Jacksonville is going to be the team for him.

I think that that's, that makes a lot of sense because the Jaguars, I mean, they did it with Tom Coughlin, right? They gave Tom Coughlin total control of the organization. I think they're building a new arena. Like you just be like, you hand the franchise to this guy. He's a legend. Here's our new arena. Here's Bill Belichick. Here's Trevor Lawrence. How does that make sense to you? It would make more sense to me if he was a big golf guy because there's an incredible resort. Sea Island is right, right, right. You know, like less than an hour away. Like he, he,

Respectfully. Respectfully. I'll say this. It means you have to go live in Jacksonville. Wow. I think that was like Talladega Nights with all the respect. You know, you just say whatever you want. Anytime respectfully or all due respect is used. Ruiz called out the Belichick-Jacksonville thing. I don't know how many weeks ago on this pod. The other one would be fun from a narrative standpoint is Vegas with

just like him and Brady being reunited in some weird way with no craft. But Belichick being Brady, having Brady be his boss, I don't know if that's going to happen. That's a fun narrative one. I can't imagine after what Belichick went through with Cam Newton and with Mac Jones that he would go to a team that didn't have a quarterback. Look at what happened with Harbaugh. Harbaugh went to a team that had good players and a good market with

Justin Herbert as his quarterback and he had an offensive line and he could immediately make that team pretty good. I think Belichick's too smart to be like, ah, we'll figure out the quarterback. He knows. Here's my question for you. What do you think he wants? Because this is like a Phil Jackson thing where he kind of wants control, but like, you know, he's kind of like a check as you're going out. Do you think that there's like real motivation and that like we'll see a level of energy we probably have never seen from a 70 year old coach? I think chip on the shoulder combined with the wins record.

So he's got to go to a place where he can put together wins. I don't think he wants to rebuild something from the bottom. But like, what does he need? 18 wins in two years? Like, that doesn't sound great to me. Like, if he's like, oh, we've eked out three 10-win seasons and lost in the wildcard round and then he retires. I don't know if that's like necessarily awesome for someone who has literally zero track record of any of his coaches having any kind of like legacy whatsoever. Dallas?

You beat me to it. Why not? Zero chance. Why? No, zero chance. Let's gamble on it. I will serve drinks at your draft party.

Like, I'll be like Cabana Boy if that happens. It's an auto draft. I don't have any drafts. Two and a half minutes. No, like basically, like Dallas Cowboys, I don't know if you saw this great story from Kalen Collar at ESPN this week, but basically like, just to give you a window into Jerry Jones's mind, they have tours going through the facility just to like, like, Michael Parsons is limping with his family through the Cowboys facility. There's like visitors who pay, they're making like $1,200 off this to like have people watch it. There's like fans like, oh my God, Michael Parsons doesn't look good. Like it's the opposite of the Kremlin. And then the whole reason Jerry screwed up

is because Jimmy Johnson got all the credit for the 90s Cowboys. Jimmy Johnson was the, how about them Cowboys? Jimmy Johnson got all the credit. The entire last 20 years has been Jerry trying to get his own credit. That's why he didn't want Bill Parcells. Sounds like Bob Kraft. Yeah, exactly. It's like the Bob Kraft making the talk. That's every move Jerry's made for 20 years has been like that. And Parcells is not going to tell Belichick to take that job. And there's no way that Jerry can let Belichick

get the credit, make decisions. It's like Jerry wants to get attention and get all the control and all the attention for having control. I would be... I think Belichick would sit out another season before he took the Dallas jump. The credit thing is so weird to me when people...

Like Kraft hired Belichick. That's all he did. There's no other thing he gets credit for. He kept the team in New England instead of them moving to St. Louis. He didn't move them to Hartford and he hired Bill Belichick. There's no other thing I can point to that he did other than be cheap the last 10 years. Jerry hired Jimmy Johnson. He gets credit for that. He built that awesome stadium. Great.

But other than that, they've just been another football team the last 20 years. House went through this with Snyder. These guys that come in and think people care about the owner. They don't. They just want the team to be good. That's it. Can I read you a stat that might color this conversation? Please. Bill Belichick has 302 wins. How many do you think Andy Reid is behind right now? 15, 20. He's at 266. So he's 36 behind. But you figure...

six, seven more, right? They're eight. No, they get to 15 and two. So he'll be at two 73. He'll be within 30 by the end of the year. And he is 1958. And Belichick is 1952 is six years younger. That's another reason. I don't, that's why I don't think he goes to like, Oh, I've taken over the Panthers. Like it's, he's got to go to a team that he can actually win games the way Harbaugh did.

That's a good point because it's kind of like Popovich with getting Wim Benyama where it's like, Reed's going to do this till he's in the grave.

Like he's not like until Mahomes goes. Why would he leave? No, I would also read smarter than everybody. Everybody out like read is like, you know what I'll do here. I'll just take the field goal. I'll take the three points so we can go up seven. I have Patrick Mahomes like he doesn't overthink any of this shit. The Chiefs actually have a Patriots like infrastructure because I think what's correct. I think there's a weird thing going on in the NFL right now where there's assumption that youth brings new ideas. And in reality, sometimes youth brings new ideas, but you can also bring

the cowardice to stand out. And I think what a really interesting thing that the Chiefs have is that Andy Reid is the perfect coach, CEO, play caller, stability. Mahomes is Mahomes and they work together. The other thing they have going for them is that Steve Spagnuolo is as innovative as any defensive coordinator in the NFL. And if he were 39, everyone would say hire Steve Spagnuolo to be your head coach. But

but he's like 58. So no one wants to hire Steve Spagnuolo, even though, because he was a bad head coach 15 years ago. Yeah. And he wasn't good. That was in 2009. You know what I mean? I'm like, yeah, like there were the other guys being interviewed were in high school in 2009. Like he's had an entire another career. He's the only coordinator that's ever won four Super Bowls. And it's crazy to think Steve Spagnuolo is not going to get another job. And so the chiefs have this infrastructure of Brett Veach, the GM, Andy Reid, Mahomes and Spagnuolo for, I don't know, seven, eight years. And then,

And they're old, but they're still innovating. And so it's everything you need and they're not going to get disrupted. That's what the Pats had. Well, House just went through it. He hired a new coach for the Washington Seawords. Quinn came in. He wasn't Ron Rivera.

Um, that was, that was first good thing. He actually had a good quarterback, second thing, but you can see like he, he's definitely changed the energy. That was what he did with the Dallas defense too. When he was there, that's what he did in Atlanta for a few years, but he's like a big chemistry vibes, motivational drop an F bombs guy, right? House. Like he's a

A thousand percent. I couldn't love him anymore. And, you know, the thing that matters is how relevant he is to these players. Right. They he he stole some Dallas guys. He brought Dorrance Armstrong over, who is if you look at, you know, his disruption rates for Armstrong, he's in the proper corner.

court. He's where you want him to be. But Dan Quinn, they're playing for him. Schefter did a report last week about Washington being a desirable place for free agents. What?

Washington, this place, the football team, F yes, because of Dan Quinn. I thought that was a weird report. Well, it's fine. I'm just saying the fact that it existed. Do you also think NFL players are just sitting around going, man, what are the most desirable players? It's like we would do a podcast, like two wide receivers in the wide receiver room going, what are your top five free agent destinations? Oh, Washington looks like they have a good thing going.

I actually know where that stuff comes from. I actually 1000% thinks that's what wide receivers do is just look around and look at the greener grass all the time. They're like NBA players. They're just like, oh, it'd be so cool if I played. It's like, I'd be so cool if I played with Dame Lillard. Then you play with Dame Lillard. You're like, oh, this kind of sucks. But that's the thing. I'm sure they watch Jaden Daniels on the red zone or on NFL.com. And they're like, man, that guy's good. I'd rather have him than Gardner Minshew. House, did you see what neighbors said last week?

Now, what do you say? They just ask neighbors because obviously neighbors and Jaden Daniels are really good friends at LSU. And then they're like, hey, how do you feel about, you know, that guy? He's like, yeah, that guy. I mean, man, I mean, what a winner. What a football. You know, he's going to go out there and compete. And every single time, you know, it's hard to beat that guy. You know, it's what an amazing guy to play with. And he just like looks up and I'm like, yeah, it's like, of course, he's thinking I wish I'd played Jaden Daniels instead of Daniel Jones.

Well, part of it for sure. Also, Washington will be in a ton of primetime games next year. Like if you want to be a player that's on a stage, you're going to get a stage with this Washington knocking on wood. I mean, you know, obviously we never take anything for granted. Would you rather be the Giants or the Cowboys next five years?

Wow. Definitely the Giants. Because I think that they are going to continue to... Jerry Jones is singularly the most important player in the NFC East because he will continue. It's exactly what Danny said. He doesn't give a shit about winning football games. What he cares about is asses in seats. And it just gets crazier and crazier. It's phenomenal. I love that guy so much.

Jerry built the NFL and I think people forget the Cowboys are a side project for guys. Main job is to make $20 billion in revenue a year for the NFL. And then also he's, I mean, one, he's older than Joe Biden, which it seems relevant. And then two, and then to bring this all together, Jerry's a fantasy football owner where it's like good owners are like Bob Kraft, hire Belichick out of the way.

The Hunt family, who just hired Andy Reid, got out of the way. Jerry could do that, but instead, he wants to tinker with the roster, right? He wants to do all this stuff. He wants to be on camera. Every week, he's talking. What the fuck are you doing on camera? I think my new favorite is Mark Davis, who, after this season, I think will be paying three coaches that aren't coaching his team, which might be a record, right? Gruden,

McDaniels and then Antonio Pierce. So have three ex-coaches. David Tepper had the record. He was paying. Tepper was like, hold my beer. So he had Rule. He had Frank Reich. And Ron Rivera. I think Matt Rule took a job at Nebraska, so I think that offset it. But yeah, there was at one point, I mean, the NFL sent a memo to the owners saying, please, we're losing $900 million a year to active coaches. Like basically it was like David Tepper, please stop firing people. But they had to send it to everyone. But it was like, yeah, three going on, four coaches on his payroll at the same time.

Hi, Fitz. Sorry we kept you from starting your other podcast. Thanks for hanging out with us. Great to see you. Think about my guillotine NBA suggestion. Maybe get that going and say hi to the fantasy guys for us. Thank you for having me. Yeah, we'll get our thoughts together on the guillotine.

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All right, house is still here. We're going to do some million dollar picks. We went 3-0 last week. Won $600,000. We're up to $778,000. There's about time some things went right. And some things did go right last week. We were on the right side of the Rams, which, you know, sweated that one out, but I thought they deserved one. 50-50 game. Cowboys and the over somehow hit last week against the Falcons. And then 50-50. We hit an Eagles-Chiefs tease that we had to sweat out on both ends. Although...

I will say I love sweating when I have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. I still feel like the sweat out was if Todd Bowles had gone for two,

We were fucked. The tease was done. The tease was done. No matter what happened with the two-point, we're done. If he had just done the courageous thing that everybody would have celebrated him for, going for the win at the end of that game, by going for a two-pointer, it would have cooked every tease in America. It did lead to the coin toss video of...

Mahomes calling heads or whatever, somebody, whatever the chiefs win and Baker Mayfield kicks his head back. Cause of course the chiefs are going to win. Of course, I'm the biggest player of the game. The right tackle is going to take a step back two seconds for the snap starts. Like the chiefs,

It's just great. It's great to bet on them because you know they're going to get 80% of the calls. Do you believe in Raheem, our guy Raheem? He has that A-side, B-side thing. Yes, yes. And the Chiefs are the most A-side NFL team we've had in a while. Because people would have said, oh, the Patriots got all the calls too. It's like they literally tried to...

Tried to railroad Tom Brady and suspended him for four games for the most dubious thing ever. The Chiefs get more calls than any football team I can remember since like the 70s Raiders. Yeah, nobody wants me to invite you to take another shit on the Lakers, but you just did this. You just talked about how many more free throws the Lakers have than any. Of course, they were shooting 10 more free throw attempts a game.

than the other team. Yeah. A lot more physical. Oh yeah. Speaking of physical, we're doing another tease. It feels, especially with the way the favorites have been performing, it feels like a little, a little safer on tease street. Still stopping at the flashing yellows.

But I feel like I just can go straight now. There's no cops on T Street. I can just cruise through. And Heifetz in the previous segment mentioned the Eagles against the Cowboys with no Dak. The Eagles are ninth in DVOA. Dallas is 25th. The Eagles have the second in the run, their offense. Dallas is 30th against the run. They're 29 yards per play. Lawrence is still out.

Phillies defense is 50 yards per play, fifth against first down, fifth against the run, seventh against pass. They got Dallas Goddard back. This line has kind of stayed at six and a half because people don't trust the Eagles.

With good reason. The reason for the tease is Sirianni insurance. We have to buy off all of the moronic things. It's Sirianni schmuck insurance. It is. It's Sirianni schmuck insurance. I can't say that 10 times fast. Sirianni schmuck insurance. It's that. It's that. Because that dude is a stone cold schmuck.

So you got to have some, some way to get out of it. I love, I mean, the, the, the Eagles teaser is a lock. You, I, you don't need to convince me any further on that leg of it. Well, the best thing about this of Philly's now seven. That's great. The best, the best thing about this is you can get it to a number that Sirianni can't screw up with a dumb two point conversion going for two. And he's up, you know, 17 or all the weird shit he does.

so we can get them down to six. And then I just, to me, the Cowboys are, I said this to Sal on Sunday night, like it just feels like a five and 12, four and 13 team now. And I don't think there's any scenario for them to turn it around. I didn't think they were good to begin with. So that's one. And then the other one is Chargers Titans. And I continue to think the Chargers are just severely undervalued. And I'm mad we didn't take them last week against the Browns. We backed off

Um, there was some couple of chargers injuries. Jameis was hot and it was a home game for Cleveland. There was good defensive stats. I bet it in real life on Sunday.

But I'm mad we didn't have four million dollar picks. But yeah, House, did you know the Chargers have not given up 21 points yet this season? I did know that. And, you know, one big element of that and it'll feature in some of my plays on the ringer pregame show on Sunday is they are so deliberate with the football they use up on average like five.

31 seconds. They're number one in the league in terms of how much of the play clock they use. So they control the flow of the game, which definitely contributes to that. It's a very good defense. Again, I couldn't name six players on it, but that doesn't matter. It's institutional. It's Harbaugh and the guy that he brought over from Michigan, and they just play disciplined football. So, I mean...

This is the seven and a half down to one and a half against a Titans team where it seems like Will Levis is going to play. Is that wonderful? Please, please. They've been crushing teams with bad QBs this year.

Points they've given up 10, 3, 20, 17, 16, 15, 8, and 10. And if you're going to make a case for Tennessee, it would probably start with their defense is pretty good. Yeah, it is. The good defensive stats are that I watched them last week. I thought they did a pretty good job with the Pats. They are first on first downs, first against the pass, second against on third down.

The Chargers, some of the stats are just phenomenal. I mean, they're in the top five in just about every relevant category. They're everything that's to run. I really like this Chargers team. And I think they're a little better than the good-bad team because they have confidence now. They're physical. They're getting some guys back. And their receivers have gotten better week after week after week. And you watch them and it's like Johnson, Josh Palmer,

McConkie, like they have guys that can actually get first downs and move the chains. Well, you know what's happening in, in over that same time continuum week after week after week, Justin Herbert got healthy. He, I think, I think he really was hurt. I mean, he, he sat out chunks of, of games. Did he miss a full game? I don't remember early in the season and his mobility is back and they are taking downfield shots and, you know, kudos to Quinton Johnson for getting it together. They took him, uh,

in a WR1 position, first round of the draft position, good for him that it looks like it may yet pay off. I mean, he wasn't even drafted. In fantasy? Yeah. Why would it be? He wasn't drafted. He was a first-round pick in his second year, and people were like, the Chargers have no receivers, and I still wouldn't draft this guy. It felt like he was 50-50 to get cut. That's how bad his rookie season was. Yeah, they...

They rejuvenated him. So I think Eagles Chargers is about as good as I felt about a tease in a while. I love it so much. I really do. My only fear with the Eagles is they have your Washington Seawards on Thursday. Yeah. And we've learned over the years, the game before the game is always a little hairy when you have that big game coming. Yeah.

So that's the only thing I'm worried about at all. It's a great observation. The other leg that to me got better is the Chiefs at home against Denver, where that line was in the eight and a half, nine range. And now it's down to seven and a half because people are giving so much respect to Sean Payton. I'm not saying that we necessarily should do anything with it here on Million Dollar Picks, but am I going to play a three-leg tease featuring those three teams come Sunday? Yes, I am.

I looked at that too. And I thought, even though the Broncos got killed last week, I still feel like they were in that game for an hour and a half. And that end of the first half touchdown just killed it. Once they fell behind 14 against Derrick Henry and Lamar, it's done. When it was 17-10, I felt like they had more of a chance. Something scares me about that game and I can't explain it. Okay. Fair enough. No, I'm just saying like, I'm with you on Sunday. I'll probably, that would be a three team tease instead of a two team tease. But

I built the Broncos. Haven't they played the Chiefs? Well, the last couple of years, not my nuts. Well, there might be some moments of close games, but the Chiefs own the Broncos. There's an incredible I don't have the number handy. Yeah. So they they split with them last year. They beat them in week eight, 24 to nine. I think that was one of the 12 times in my home's career. I've been like, what's wrong with the Chiefs? And then, hey, guess what? They're fine.

Um, I'm staying away from that one. Here's one that I don't want to stay away from unless you talk me out of it. The new coach theory is back. The saints have a new coach. They are plus three and a half against the Falcons this week. And in their first meeting, they lost at the buzzer by two. Falcons are banged up. London's hurt. My play might not. Pits is hurt. My play might not. Lindstrom's hurt. Jarrett's hurt. He's old, but he's out. Um,

I like that they already played and the Saints moved the ball on them. Atlanta's defense is the worst in the league completion percentage, which just kind of ties in. So they have no pass rush, and they're not good at stopping completions, which are really the only good things the Saints are good at. Now, they traded Lattimore, which makes me nervous because that means they're quitting on the season, the Saints. Their defense is 31st. That was with Lattimore.

um, in yards per play Atlanta seven. I don't know. Do we believe in the new coach theory? It didn't work with the jets because the jets ended up not, they lost by three of the bills and did not cover in a game that we both bet on. So you could say the new coach theory is due or maybe don't do it with the saints. But I was, I was taken aback by the dialogue from the saint side about, it really seemed like they were delighted that Dennis Allen got fired.

Well, I do think that they're delighted that Dennis Allen got fired, but I will confess I am very gun shy when it comes to the Saints team. I personally feel like I had a hand in getting Dennis Allen fired because I bet on the Saints against the Panthers.

It was my wise wager. All I asked them to do was score 14 points in the first half against the Panthers. They scored exactly 13 points. They had a chance to go for two after scoring a touchdown where it would have made sense for them to go for two and get to 14. But I cannot, after watching Derek Carr...

I'm going to have to try and figure out how to say this politely. What he did to Chris Olave. Cash bar, cash bar car. What, what, what? Like the Michael Thomas respond. I worry. Like, is that, do they believe that in that locker room? Yeah. Michael Thomas still have sway. I'm taking them off. We can't do it. Well, their car might, might shorten that guy's career. He might be responsible for Chris Olave only playing five years.

Well, that pass was, that's the most dangerous pass you can throw in football. I don't think he did it intentionally. I just don't think he's that good at football. The worse the quarterback is, the more the ball sails. It's something that Brady, you know, it's the one thing he'll get mad at as an announcer when the quarterback leads somebody into a collision because he feels like that's your job not to do that. Right. Exactly. So we'll take them off. They just scare me. That's fine.

How about the Steelers plus three against your Washington Seawords? So I think it's a 50-50 game because you're going to go through and look at the Steelers defense. And it will be true that they have a bunch of very good numbers. And then if you consider who they've played, they really haven't gone up against any offenses with genuine firepower yet. So can I give you the converse on that? Yes.

I don't think I used that. No, you're right. Washington beat the Giants twice. They beat Cleveland, Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Arizona. This is the first top 10 DVOA defense that they've played. They've only played two in the top 16 of the league. You're right. Number 11, Chicago, they scored 18. Number 13, Baltimore, they scored 23. And it's very possible your team is seven and four in a week.

Cause you got that Philly game on Thursday and it's like, guess what? You would have taken seven and four, but this is a different part of the schedule than they've had to deal with the whole season. A thousand percent true. And, and part of the calculus for why you would feel comfortable enough taking the Steelers is just Tomlin as an underdog on, on the road.

against a rookie quarterback. There are all these numbers you can look at over the span of that man's 20 year career where he eats up situations like this. And he will certainly have that defense mindset wise, like guys, everybody's looking to see this rookie quarterback against you. You here's your opportunity to shine. So that would be the reason I personally think there's another reason though, that the

Their running backs are healthy and it feels like they can actually run the ball on Washington. Now, they better like this Washington defense, though. Well, I like this Washington defense against Russell Wilson because the Washington defense over the past month has gotten very successful marks in terms of pass rush yards.

win rate and they, they put pressure. They've been very successful in putting a good disruptive pressure on quarterbacks. And the Steelers offensive line had been rotating chairs, rotating cast a little bit. I'm not sure if that's settled down. Um, but if Russell Wilson is in, uh,

any duress at all, then I, then I like Washington's chances there. Um, to me, it feels like a turnover or field goal game. It's a, it's a game where, so it's plus three. That sounds great. That's it's totally fine. I'm not talking you out of it. Cards jets. This is the line of the year.

The Cardinals are underdogs at home against the Jets. I've watched football every week this season. The Cardinals are better than the Jets. And yet they're on my do not bet list. Yeah. Because I don't trust them. I don't know. I don't trust them. They're five and four and they've gotten better, not worse as the seasons went along. The Jets lost to the Patriots, played on a Thursday night against Houston that basically had one receiver in camp block.

And it felt like the Jets were going to lose until this crazy Garrett Wilson catch that I still don't understand how it was a touchdown. The game flips. The Jets win. And it's Halloween. It's stupid. It's a Thursday night. And now people are like, oh, the Jets are back. I don't think the Jets are good. I don't think the Jets are good either. But...

And again, to be clear, the Jets are on my do not. I have two teams on my, I will not bet on either of these teams. The Jets are the Bears. So there's no scenario in which you're going to be able to, I don't care what the numbers are, what they say. I'm just not betting on those teams. I would have thrown the Jaguars on there as well.

Well, that's fine. They all have the same thing in common, which is dunderhead nincompoop decision makers out there guiding the schemes. I want no part of the Jets' offensive scheme. Think about all the conversation that we just had with Danny Heifetz and what Nathaniel Hackett did to Brees Hall this season. The number one pick in fantasy can't get off because...

because the Jets can't get off. They spent all this money on trying to rehabilitate an offensive line. So to me, this Arizona Jets game, just we don't have to bet on every game. We don't have to bet on that game. I would say let's not do anything with that game. Counter. So Arizona's won four of their last five. They beat San Francisco. Really nice win. I watched it. They got killed by Green Bay.

They snuck out that Chargers game that I don't know how they won. I think the Chargers are good. They went against a good defense, beat them. They came back and beat that Miami team. Little resilience there. And then they kind of killed Chicago last week. Swamped them. Swamped them. They really gave them problems. And I think what I liked about that game going into this game

is Chicago has a shitty offensive line, right? And they just, they were in Caleb's grill the whole time. The Jets offensive line is a mess. I mean, they're not even sure who's playing this weekend. And Rodgers has looked old and I just like it. So I want to do it. I know I'm taking them off the DMV list.

Well, look, make it the argue pick. I would say don't bet it, and you're going to bet it. I won't take Jets. Also... I won't take the other side of it, so it's not the argue pick in that respect. Before Drake May got hurt in that Jets game, he was just kind of scrambling around and doing whatever, and the Jets didn't seem... He seemed faster than the Jets, which makes me think Kyler Murray against that Jets defense. I just feel like he'll be able to move around and do things. And what... This Jets team...

I don't understand why we haven't written them off yet. I don't get the line. It's insulting. Do you think it's a rat line?

No, I think it's the right line. It's a line based on priors. I didn't get a chance to sit down and look at the look ahead, but here's the part of what would help your case going against the Jets. C.J. Mosley, questionable. The cornerback, Michael Carter, questionable. Two safeties, both of their safeties, questionable. If they're not in perfect health, that defense, we've seen that defense be super gettable. I'm taking them. Cards plus one and a half. Ha ha ha.

Um, the Rams are playing the dolphins and my first instinct was jump on the Rams. And I thought a lot about the dolphins the last couple of weeks. I watched that whole dolphins bills game. I thought they played really well. They did. Their defense isn't very good, but they can run the ball and control the ball and move the ball. And they're hard to play. And this Rams team, like they were super lucky last week. You know, that, that was, uh,

I still, if you're a Seattle fan, that was one of the worst losses of the year. You're just saying, how the fuck did we lose that game? Three possessions in the red zone in the second half, one of which turned into six points for the other team. Like that, not only did they, they didn't go scoreless in the red zone. They gave six points in the other direction. And I think the Dolphins can run the ball on them. So I'm wondering,

And you kind of like them too. I'm wondering, do we take the plus one and a half? Do we do an adjusted line with the over? What do we do? In the first place, Dolphins money line would be attractive to me. And then if you wanted to do like do an adjusted line where it's Dolphins minus two or something like that,

The important thing to me, and as we handicap this, is for sure what you just sort of outlined, which is the Dolphins have been unlucky, and they are such a different team with Tua. But their defense... They barely lost to Arizona. They barely lost to Indianapolis. And last week, they really could have beaten Buffalo. And I thought they really played well. I was impressed. I'm so mad about that Indianapolis loss. They had that game... Yeah.

In hand. Zach Seiler's back. That's the key aspect of this to me. Their ability to generate some pressure against the Rams and against Matthew Stafford, it really is dependent on Seiler being there, and he is. So that's a key element to me. Do you see points in this game? Yes. Yes, I do. What if I was able to offer you the Dolphins plus 4.5 with the over of 42.5 at minus 115?

Wow. That's just like a standard. I love that. I love that price. It's the Dolphins plus four and a half. Dolphins plus four and a half. And over 42 and a half. Yeah. Yeah. In. That's a great one. Great job. Thanks. All right. We're right now and down. Dolphins four and a half over. I'll tell you another thing. And we say this sometimes at the Rams, depending on who's coming in.

The Dolphins have a lot of fans, man. And I think there's going to be Dolphin fans. That's a team that's been around since the 70s. They have generations of fans. Some of them live in L.A. I know some of them. I think there's going to be Dolphin fans in that game. It is funny to think about people from Miami flying to Los Angeles. Like, it's not, you know, it's not like a destination for them. All right. Last one I have for you is the Lions. We're a little afraid of Nico Collins.

Right. Cause it seems like he might come back for Houston, might not. And I, I looked at this initially like, Oh, no, Nico Collins, no digs. Like the lions are going to absolutely kill them. It's in a dome. I think this lion's team is, is great. So there, there's a couple of things we can do with this. You do the lion's money with the under 57 and a half that's minus one 11.

So basically like anything, any score higher than 30, 27 beats it. The lions are favored by three and a half in this. And something scares me about the hook. And I just wonder, maybe you just lay the points. Maybe the lions are that good. Maybe we've hit a point and just bet the lions every week. Well, they are 40 and 15 against the spread over the last 55 games. So that's pretty good evidence. You're, you're, you're going to make money, uh, gambling on the, on the lions. Um, I, I,

can only come up with, you know, uh, I, I don't have any, um, uh,

X's and O's reason to, to, to not do it. It is the case for sure that, uh, CJ Stroud over his short career thus far has dramatically better splits at home than on the road. Um, it is the case that Houston's defense has been very good on early downs. Um, and the lions are sort of middle of the pack on, on early downs. Uh, uh,

There isn't a lot to do. I think it's just, you know, I like that Detroit money line better than messing around with the points. So Detroit money line is minus 184. I was looking at the Detroit wins the first half. Detroit wins the game, but they don't have that on Fandle right now because I think, oh, there it is. No, they do have it now. That's plus 105. Detroit first half, Detroit game. What are your thoughts? Hmm.

Hmm. Plus 105. Yeah. I think I like it. I kind of like the plus money. We're just asking them to win the... Yeah. Yeah. Because... We're in on that one. Yeah. So here's a couple of things with the Lions. Seventh against the run on defense. I think the only way the Texans...

win this game is they run the ball. They do the Joe Mixon thing, but I feel like the Lions can shut that down. The other thing is the Lions are first in quarterback curries. Guess who's 32nd offensively? Houston.

Their line sucks. Like even the Jets were getting a stroud. I just feel like the Lions can overrun them. Lions are first in DVOA. They've only scored 23 points once since week two, the Texans. I don't think they're going to score points. Well, and I'm looking, I messed up the number. The Lions are awesome on early downs and so is the Houston defense. So those two are neutralizing each other. But Will Anderson might be hurt. And here's the thing that I'm reminded of. Will Anderson got hurt last week. That's right. Yeah.

Yeah, here's the thing that tips it. Zedaria Smith, do you think that he will be fired up to come in and make a great first impression and put pressure on C.J. Stroud in this game? It's an island game, right? And Detroit will want to come out. Yeah, let's do it, man. Whatever you want to do with Detroit, I'm there. Lions first half, Lions game, plus 105. Great, great, great. We're doing it.

Last but not least, what do you want to do with this Giants blowout Panthers game in Germany? It's so much fun to root for. It'll be fun if they go up like 20 to three. I don't want to do it. I want to sleep. You're leaving out the blowout that I like the best this week. What is it? I like another blowout better.

It's the San Francisco 49ers going into Tampa off of a bye week where Todd Bowles, as a head coach, is 0-6 going up against teams. This is the week where the injuries for Tampa finally catch up. It's a very, very tough spot for them coming off of that Monday night.

And it seems like we keep saying it. Everybody keeps saying it. McCaffrey is going to be back. And it came at exactly the right time. We were not that far off this position last year with the record for San Francisco going into their buy right around kind of 500 ish. They came out and they beat the crap out.

out of the Jacksonville Jags. I think they won like 34 to 3. I tried to look it up earlier. They blew the doors off. And Brock Purdy's nuts is absolutely... Brock Purdy's nuts is absolutely...

With this time, with Shanahan's ability to scheme and what they just watched Kansas City be able to do, I think I'm going to be able to take advantage of all of it. I really, I'm absolutely thrilled to lay the points. Anything under a touchdown for me with the Niners, this is the portion of the season where the Niners get going. We're all like, oh, this is why we had them at the top of the NFC. Here's the version of that team. I love this spot against Tampa this week.

The Tampa defensive stats are absolutely abysmal. Offenses are there. First of all, they're 31st and first downs 30th and passing yards, 24th yards per play. And then you flip it the other way. The Niners have some really good defensive stats that I was surprised by. Like they're fifth against the pass. They're second and first downs, things like that. So I like your blowout call. So now I'm wondering, um,

Like how much of a blowout are we thinking? Would you go 14 plus? Would you go 17 plus? I like 14 plus is in my, is my, in my neck of the woods. Cause you know, Baker is scrappy. I Baker's been working. I'm so impressed by Baker. He's him and Kate Otten are good for something. I really, my tip I had to Baker this season.

You sound like Collinsworth. I just realized it. I just love this big of a field. He's really, he's such a gamer. He's so dumb. All right, so we'll do, how about this? Oh my God. Keep your pants on for this one. Niners win by 14 plus. Giants win by 14 plus. On FanDuel, it is over 10 to 1. Ha ha ha ha ha.

Well, for the record, I'm going to split those two up in my own betting card. And if we're going to put those two together, it can't be for very much money. It has to be. I was thinking, could that be a 20K bet at 10 to 1 odds? Great, great, yeah. Or we just go separately on both of them, put 100K on each and hope both of them hit. Let's do, why don't we do both? 20K on the combo, combo platter. And...

what would you say on each individually? 100K on each individually? 100K on Niners plus 230. 100K on Giants plus 240. I like doing that more and forgetting the parlay. Okay. Okay. That's fun. I like it. All right. Only other game I wanted to mention and we're staying away from it is the Jaguars against the Vikings with Mac Jones.

No, no. So you can go to, we're not betting this, but you go two ways with this. One is this is yet another chance to bet against Mac Jones with the great defense that we know Mac Jones when you're pressuring him, it's a disaster. The other way to think of it is, is there some Ewing theory possibilities with Mac Jones this week with the money line?

Oh, is Trevor Lawrence even good? Like we still don't know. What if Mac Jones comes in? He's good. And he actually beats the Vikings. It is. I don't think this is going to happen. I want to talk about it. Let's do it. Let's take now. We're not doing it. We're not doing 5k. No, we're doing nothing funny, but I'm going to bet $5. I'm telling everybody right now, I'm betting $5 on Jacksonville to win this week because that is one of the funniest outcomes of the week. I'm definitely doing it.

So right now they are plus 265 to win outright. Fine, fine. You could do the Mac Jones. You could do the over with the money line, and that would be plus 568. Do the Mac lights up Minnesota. That's a deep fried turkey. That's my deep fried turkey special of the week. All right, here we go.

It's time. The Million Dollar Picks for week 10. Last week, we won $600,000. We're up 778 for the season. Joe House and I are hot. House is going to celebrate these picks with an Arby deep fried turkey sandwich. They are not a sponsor for Million Dollar Picks. We just love Arby's.

First, tease the Philadelphia Eagles up to seven against the Dallas Cowboys, who stink, who don't have Dak Prescott, who are headed for four and 13 or five and 12. Kind of like this Eagles team, too. There's some great stats of them. Teasing them with the Chargers minus seven and a half against Will Levis and the Titans. We think it's going to be Will Levis, but the Chargers have not given up 21 points yet this season. They have crushed teams with bad QBs.

All of these bets are going to be 200K. We're putting 200K on that. Howson, I really like the Dolphins against the Rams. Even though I've been on the Rams all year, I just, the Dolphins can run the ball. They've been super frisky the last three weeks. We're doing an adjusted one. Dolphins plus four and a half with the over 42 and a half in LA. Bunch of Dolphin fans there.

You think the Dolphins could win this game outright? I do. I do. I think that they're, what we saw in that offense against Buffalo was, was, was like very promising. I like them very much in this situation. We bought ourselves some schmuck insurance there because of the possibility of the Dolphins and, and this jockey,

This jockey, McDaniel, controlling the whole game. And then in the last six minutes, all of a sudden getting skittish. And then there's Stafford going down the field. All of a sudden they lose by three. So we have schmuck insurance with the Dolphins. Plus four and a half over 42.5 parlay. Next one, Steelers plus three in Washington against a house of C words. We just think this is a three point game. We're grabbing the points. No, that's it.

That's it. Washington has not played a top 10 DVOA defense yet, and we like the spot for the Steelers. I'll tell you what, I'm not rooting against Washington, but the bet makes sense. The bet makes sense. Next one, we disagreed on, and we're doing it anyway, and then we can argue about it if it doesn't work out. The Cardinals at home.

getting one and a half points against the stupid jets. And this I'm just offended by this line and I'm taking the Cardinals. It's the second funniest outcome of the week. Rogers losing to the Cardinals would be tremendous. So I, that one I will root for. I just can't in good conscience, recommend anybody bet on it. I don't think the jets are good. Lions first half lions game in Houston.

is plus 105. Both of them have to hit. And we are now at the point of the season where we're just riding the Lions. We believe in the Lions. I'm not sure when they lose again. And if they lose, it's going to be against a team that's better than Houston. Houston's offensive line can just not carry them in this game. And I don't think they're going to run the ball in Detroit either. You love the Lions safest bet for you right now in the league.

Yes. I mean, the math supports it. Their performance supports it. The addition of Zaria Smith supports it. Their coaching staff supports it. I mean, I tried to speak into existence the Packers being competitive. That game was over with a quickness because Jordan Love couldn't move. And Jared Goff had two gloves on and it was perfectly fine. The ball didn't slip one time. And then last but not least, we're putting 100K...

on the Niners minus 13 and a half adjusted. That's plus 230 because we think Tampa, no disrespect to Tampa. It's been an impressive season, but from a talent injuries, you just, you're not going to be able to hang in this game. We don't think. And then the Giants in Germany against the Panthers, who there's no way they're winning twice in a row, minus 13 at plus 240. We're going to put a hundred K in each of those and try to hit one and hopefully both be awesome.

I'll have a Christmas ale for it. And should we put 10K in the parlay at plus 1022? Yes. Yes. Yes. 10K in the parlay at plus 1022 as well. Those are the million dollar picks for week 10. You like these? I love them. It's a pretty good batch. It's so fun. It's time, baby. We're gonna take a break. Talk NBA really quick. This episode is brought to you by Chase Sapphire Reserve. Seeing a band or your favorite sports team in person is great.

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All right, House, we did this last week. People liked it. So we're doing it again. Just like a little, little nightcap NBA, NBA dialogue. You watched Warrior Celtics last night? The whole thing from the opening. What was your take? What'd you make of it?

I was so impressed with the physicality of Golden State's defense. It is by far the first time I've seen a Golden State team, really since the 2017-18, right up into the finals where everybody got hurt in 2019 on the Golden State team, where their defensive metrics were always super high over that stint.

They have a bunch of wing dudes who will go get up into your chest, and they forced double-digit turnovers. The Celtics weren't ready for it, and obviously Jalen Brown wasn't there, and I know, but the Celtics still, with the pedigree, with their preparation, you expect them, especially at home. I think they had 10 turnovers by halftime just because of how aggressive

Golden State's defense was. They were blitzing the shit out of Tatum, which is what you kind of have to do against the Celtics when Jamie Brown's not playing. I like the narrative of Tatum getting off to get his revenge, but Steve Kerr and Steph Curry are like, eh.

Good job. Good job, Jason Tatum. Patted him on the head. It was a winnable. It was a totally winnable game for the Celtics. And the difference is they actually didn't get stops down the stretch where they still miss Porzingis' rim protection, which is why Cade is playing so much. But then not also having Jalen

And, you know, you're losing two of your top five guys. Your guy Kata, not terrible. He's not terrible. But in the last four minutes, what happened happened, which was Curry's just trying to get him in high screens to try to attack him. But when I was doing my power pull on Tuesday, I really had trouble ranking the Warriors because I felt like they might be a top five team. And I wasn't ready to go there yet because it was too early. But defensively, they have it.

And I think they already have an identity, which I think is really hard to achieve this early in the season when you're

They added a bunch of new dudes, but I feel like they know who they are already. They're getting a lot out of Heald and Wiggins. They're getting a lot. Well, at least Wiggins has done it before. Heald hasn't done it in three years. Right, right. And Wiggins didn't exactly do it in the past year and a half. I mean, Wiggins took off half of a season, a third of a season. No, he did. Well, I'll say this with Heald.

he's always been on the, in the right situations, really good at just chucking the ball. Right. So they're, they're just like, we know who you are, buddy healed. You're just going to do all these clay Thompson plays. And what's interesting is clay was so famous and it was so you were always, your eye was always drawn to him. You always knew where he was in the court, but he can kind of like slide in and out like that. The key play of that game. They're up for Curry. Curry basically collapses the defense and Tatum loses healed.

for like a split second and he'll just kind of sneaks off to the side and has this wide open three to clinch the game. I don't think that happens with Clay.

Well, part of it also is he'll gets the rid of the ball. F-ing. Immediately. Like, oh my, I, it felt very irrational confidence, except for he is a 40, you know, plus a percent, a three point shooter over his career. And he's, what is he now? He's just under 50% so far this season, isn't he? Is he having a great start? I mean, he's having one of the great, crazy seasons. Anyone said he's. Yeah. I mean, we're 22 points a game through 20. Yeah. He's eight games in, but.

I think the Warriors thing is real. I like the way Draymond's playing too. I think this is, he's, you know, hasn't caused any drama. We'll see if that continues, but he was a role player last night. He still looks good. He's still, they run stuff through him. He always knows where Curry is. I like watching him. I think that the ball movement's great and they can get stopped. So I'm taking them seriously. And,

Guess what? So is Vegas. Well, FanDuel had them all the way up to 49 and a half. Their win total moved all the way up there. And I said on the Ringer Gambling Show. It's up to 50 and a half now. Oh, well, 49 and a half isn't under and 50 and a half isn't under. Because this thing works as long as Steph Curry is upright and healthy. And it's still asking a lot, a lot of Buddy Yield and Wiggins. Like those guys have...

have to be able to do it for a full season. It's been a minute since we've seen that. The value is before the year when it was 43 and a half for the division. They are plus one 95 and Phoenix is plus one 55. I was gone through some of the division stuff today because I'm in Boston. I actually made a bet. I did Celtics. Okay. Seeing Cleveland,

Fun. Which was plus 152 as a division parlay. You didn't send that to me. You know, I'm allowed to bet here in Washington, D.C. I was going to break the news to you right here. Okay. Most shocking division bet is the Southeast. Miami is minus 105 and Orlando is plus 115. I don't see the Miami thing at all. I said it Tuesday. They lost another dumb game yesterday. To me, there's some sort of trade wouldn't happen. And I know Palo's out and I know Orlando's going to have trouble scoring, but still defensively, they're so good.

You know, they're over unders down to 42 and a half. I'm actually, I'm buying Orlando stock. I don't feel like there's seasons in the tank by any means. I'd rather have Atlanta at whatever number they're at than Miami to win that division. Well, yeah. Well, I mean, because of the potential upside, I think the upside for Atlanta is still there. There is no upside for Miami. They're in the, what is it?

It's not downside. They're in hold side. It's neutral side. They're in nowhere. Atlanta's 12 to 1 for that division. But they've had a bunch of injuries already. Right, right. I mean, we're eight games in. I really like that team. Conference odds, the only ones that jumped out to me that seemed different and still not adjusted enough were Cleveland still 9 to 1 for the conference. Go ahead. Go ahead. No issue.

That's a hedge. That's like, let's say they make the Eastern finals and they're playing the Celtics. That line is not going to be Cleveland plus 900. No, no, it's a great hedge ticket to have. If that finals comes to pass, like Eastern conference files comes to pass. I thought it was going to be like five to one. And then golden state is 15 to one in the West. I won't do that. Um,

I will say they would match up with OKC pretty nicely in the series. They have the same kind of like depth and athleticism. I also think they have a trade to make. They do not have the same kind of depth as Oklahoma City. If they have a, if there's a trade, then maybe. They're playing 10 guys. No, OKC is the best team in the West. I'm just saying they could at least have a puncher's chance of doing a Spider-Man meme on it. I'm not gambling on Buddy Heald and Andrew Wiggins. I'm not doing it. Boston OKC is a final. It's still plus 650.

MVP odds, which I'm not allowed to bet on. I always feel like I have to say that. But the one that stuck out to me was Duran is still 19 to one. And if you watch these crunch times, he's been the best guy in crunch time in the league. Keeps doing it. But that Suns team is going to potentially be a one or a two seed. I was just surprised. I thought his odds would be better. Curry's 150 to one, which seems too high too. I wouldn't bet it. But the rookie of the year, Reese O'Shea is plus 350.

Edie's plus 350. And then your two guys are the next two guys. Bob Carrington plus 550 and SARS plus 650. The fuck? Well, here's the thing. Washington, those guys are starting. They're playing. They're getting minutes. I'm going to lose my Bozellas bet because Chicago is playing too hard. They're trying to win. They're not letting that kid get the time that I thought that he was going to get. And meanwhile, all your kids are playing.

They sure are. I wouldn't bet on any of those. Rookie of the year is like, you just love gambling if you're betting on that this year. So defensive player of the year, Chet's at plus 290, which I thought was notable because Wemby's even odds now, his odds have dropped, but Chet's been awesome as a rim protector player.

anchor that defense. So I just thought those odds seemed high to me. Well, Webby, what did he start off? Wasn't he minus? Oh, yeah, he was minus. Yeah, so even odds, but it's probably like, you know, now we're in the territory of a good price for Wemby. You know, Jacoby, our friend Jacoby is on the mismatch now with Verno. Beloved. It's been a very entertaining podcast, but he's, he's zagging hard against Wemby Nyama as like,

We're giving this guy too many kudos. Where are the results? Why do they play him like a point guard? He's doing all this stuff. It's good. It's a good bit. He's called Victor Luzbanyama. Oh, fuck.

Get it on a shirt. I'll wear it. But he is basically saying we've, his, Jacoby's theory is we've given him too much too soon. He's like the favorite kid who the parents are just giving him everything and telling him how great he is. And Jacoby said he's basically like homeschooled. He's like a homeschooled kid that everybody's telling him how great he is. And he's had no adversity yet. And there's no repercussions for poor play down the stretch. Listen, I'm just saying I was enjoying the bit. Yeah.

It's a great fit. And I'm here for it. And I will wear a shirt that says... A loose banyama? A loose banyama. Yeah. Wemby doesn't seem any better than last year because they won't put him in the fucking paint ever. They're eight games in. Move him closer to the rim. No, let's let him be. Let's let him... Did you watch the Olympics? Did he shoot 25 footers? He's not a good three-point shooter. He was good in the Olympics. He was because he was near the rim. So let the kid just get, you know...

We're not out there to win any awards the first 10 games of the epic season. There's no pressure on me. This is Jacoby's bit. These are not my opinions. Coach of the year, Kenny Atkinson is plus 340 and Kerr is 6-1. Those were the two that jumped out to me. All right, the over-unders quick. Celtics and OKC up to 59.5. Cleveland's 53.5 now.

Golden State's 15 and a half, as we mentioned. The Lakers are holding firm at 45 and a half. I don't know if you saw yesterday, but we've already entered the it's all D'Angelo Russell's fault part of the season, which is November 7th. I didn't think it was going to be. Yeah, I didn't think it was going to be until Thanksgiving.

I was disappointed. I had it all ready for Thanksgiving week and Turkey. When we did over-unders, I hated the 42 and a half because 43 wins is so few. 43 and 39 with those two guys on the team. I am going to buy some under 45 and a half now. I'm going to go ahead and do it. That seems too high.

I mean, because I'm going to I feel like we're going to lose the 42 and a half, but because they're going to win 43 or 44 or 45, which is fine, but not 46. I mean, that's really the wager. And it's kind of dumb, but that's what I think. You take Davis out of that lineup and it's a layup line. Yeah, is exactly right. I mean, they have just negative defenders all over the place. And the three point shooting is not awesome. And that team's a mess. So we'll see. There's a trade still to happen.

Nets are up to 21 and a half house. The ones that have dropped, the Hawks are down to 32 and a half, which I thought was fascinating. Utah's down to 22 and a half. The Hawks continue to be one of the worst against the spread teams. Like we thought, oh, that was just last year's aberration. It's still the same. God damn it. New Orleans is 40 and a half. Orlando is 42 and a half. And then Milwaukee and Philly are down to 45 and a half each. And now Maxie's out.

I don't know what to do about Philly. I'm taking the L on our season over under thing. But how do you bet Philly now? What's what's the the angle? Don't do anything. Dibundo texted me today asking if Philly is now the year from health team. And I texted him back. I think that was the case two days ago, even before the Maxi thing.

Well, all of this will be so far in the rearview mirror if they arrive come like the second week of March, third week of March. And those three guys are healthy and they're going to be in the play-in, right? They're going to be like the 7-8 seed, which will be fine. They'll win. And then they're going to be an unbelievable matchup against...

Boston or Cleveland or the Knicks in the first round. Boston has got their number, but Cleveland or the Knicks in the first round against Philly? I mean, we just had that. We had the Knicks-Philly in the first round this most recent year. Philly under 45.5 minus 120 on Fandle. I mean, I'm going to have to do it. I have to do it. I have to buy out of my position.

And then Milwaukee also 45 and a half, which seems... Still high. Giannis will make some sort of run at some point. Yeah. You mean a run to another team? You finally got me believing that. Fando has the Celtics to record 70 plus wins...

In 24-25. This is, I think, a Boston-only bet. 17-1. I don't see it with the brownout, Porzingis. OKC you could talk me into. Even last night, that Denver game. I don't know if you saw it. I did. Denver basically had the game, and then OKC just turned into a bunch of maniacs and cut it to one. And Caruso was running around like he was a rabid pit bull, just disrupting absolutely everything. And then all of a sudden, they had a chance to win. I didn't love the possession. I thought SGA waited too long.

And then got this like weird lefty scoop shot. It was a nice block by the Watson kid. Um, but it took extraordinary effort by, by, uh, Denver. It took a throwback game. Yeah. Well, to take the lead then blow game. Yeah. They got a 29, six and six from Westbrook. Um, okay. So we have to turn in ringer 100 and I just wanted to go over the top 25 with you and then we'll go.

This is what I have. I sent it to you in advance. And I like this list. We take this list seriously. It's not like the ESPN list. We actually put real thought into the rankings. So I have Jokic one, Doncic two, and Giannis three. We're good at this point, right? Yeah. Yes. Yes. SGA four? Yeah. Still good. Still good. Tatum has to be five. I don't care what happened in the Olympics. The shit that that guy does night to night,

As a point forward in that team, his defensive stuff, his rebounding, the fact that he's the anchor of a team that won the title and is a 65-66 win team potentially. I don't know how he's not fifth. I'm not arguing with you. It's fine. Curry sixth? Sure. Durant seventh? So here's the thing that I just want to make sure that we talk through. Having both those guys ahead of Anthony Edwards, who...

is I think still, even with the slow-ish start for Minnesota, isn't he still the best two-way player in the game? Him and Giannis, right? So I have Edwards eighth, and I have Jalen Brunson ninth, and I have Anthony Davis tenth. And Edwards was the hardest one to figure out. But I think to me it comes down to Durant and Curry have the resume

that Edwards is still building. And I just wasn't ready to have him jump those guys yet. You know, what's funny is, um, and I'm not accusing you of this, but in my mind's eye, having just watched the Olympics and watching them be the big brothers to him, he, he was the little brother on that team and his, his role was vital. His contribution was, was tremendous. But watching those two guys when it was night, nighttime, um,

It was, you know, Curry, especially. I'm not going to quibble with it. I'm not going to quibble. I'm not going to quibble.

Jalen Brunson, nine Davis, 10. I thought what was interesting about this part of the exercise, that's clearly the top 10. Yes. And you could quibble about, Oh, should, could Tatum be switched with Durant? He could go through and you could fight me on any of that stuff. Yeah. I think that has to be the top 10. I like, I have Mitchell 11 and Booker 12 and I don't think they they're sniffing that top 10. Not, not on my list. I like both of them. They're not in the top 10.

All right. I have Paolo 13. I have Jalen 14 and I have LeBron 15. Okay. And pretty incredible. Jalen versus Paolo. Paolo. I'm not going to ding him cause he's hurt. He got an injury. He'll be back. He'll be fine. But I just think for what we were watching him do with Orlando, it's a tiny step higher than what Jalen can do. But Jalen has to be a top 15 guy for me at this point. I would say so. Yeah.

And LeBron, it's like year 22. It's the best. He's the coolest. Yeah. You could tell me he should be five spots lower. Nah. It seems right. 15 seems right for him because he can still do what he did last night. He put up 39. I want to say it respectfully, but the guys like right behind him in this list, not putting bitch ass. I won't say any names. I had it, LeBron. Come on.

So I have, this is another interesting cluster, 16, 17, 18, Wemby Yama, Sabonis, Adebayo. And Wemby Yama, because of the defense and all these on-off stats with just how destructive he is defensively. Sabonis, I think, has to be in the top 20 for what he's doing night to night.

Adebayo was the one where I was like almost ready to shove him out of the top 20. I don't think he's good this year. I haven't tried to give him the benefit of the doubt. Right. Well, cause he's earned it. And because his defensive metrics remain, I mean, I don't know what they are through these first seven or eight games, but like the underrated quiet part of his game, how he inflicts his will on games and,

It doesn't show through box score wise. It doesn't even really show through when you're sitting and watching, except for that. He tilts the floor defensively for them. That's how they have a winning mid forties. I don't know, man, who, who you like the names you have behind him. Don't deserve to be ahead of him. In my humble opinion, I have towns six spots behind him and he kicked his ass last week, you know? Okay. I'll keep them at 18. Okay. Then I have a bunch of guards, Fox 19, John Moran, 20 maxi 21, uh,

And Kyrie, 22. I think Kyrie has been a professional now for two years. And, you know, he's 23 to 26 a game and makes 40% of his threes. And you could go to it at the end of the games. You got to hand it to him. The one that I think is going to make a leap and make us really work hard is Tyrese whenever he comes back from this hamstring injury. Because he is sick. I mean, speaking of guys with two-way potential.

Yeah. You put Maxie Morant and Fox, and that's a nice little battle for out of those three guys, who would you rather have? Jalen Williams at 23, Carl Anthony Towns up to 24. I've been really impressed with him on the Knicks. On the one hand, it shouldn't surprise us that it's working, except for on the other hand, it's Carl Anthony Towns that it's working. But you know what the revelation has been? And it's not a revelation because we've seen him do it, but

He's kind of, this is the position he should be is a stretch five on a team like this, not playing with Rudy Gobert, even though the Rudy Gobert thing worked and they almost made the finals. But I just, I love what I've seen with him in Brunson. Yeah. Well, that's the, you got to the Brunson part. The Brunson part is the part to say out loud. Yeah. Cause he's playing with the top three point guard, point guard, real point guard. Chet 25. I think he's a top 25 guy now.

I mean, you're not going to hear me argue to the contrary. He came out on fire with a commitment to the defensive end that was the project for the summer when they broke. It's like, Chet, here's what we want you to do this summer. A, keep eating. Go to Arby's once a week. But B, we want to see some rim protect. We want to see those rotations. So can you work on that? And he showed up. He's like, hey, I'm here.

I'm doing my rotations. Watch me coach. Chet, eat this deep fried turkey from turkey sandwich from Arby's. So after that, then it's another drop off and we could argue and I'm not going to go through everybody, but that's, you go into this Jimmy Butler, Halliburton and bead. No idea where to put him anymore. I have no idea how many games he's playing. James Harden.

Good job by him. Good job by Harden this year. Marked in Zion, Paul George. Like then it gets complicated. But I do think that's the top 25 in some order. I love it. It's great. When do we get to do this again? So you have no notes on this? No, because it's so early and we're just sort of like

Trying to be measured, trying to have a little bit of a proper reaction. I like that you gave some extra credit to the OGs because of how they gave another gold medal to America, like that aspect of it. But this is, you know, it's constantly evolving. It's constantly a work in progress and it's going to be fun. When we do this again in a month, what's it going to look like? Who are the most likely to drop out and who's most likely to jump in?

So the big storylines coming out of this exercise is that I think the top 10 is unassailable now, at least for right now. That's, you have a top 10. Jokic, Doncic, Giannis, SGA, Tatum, Curry, Durant, Edwards, Brunson, Davis. Those are the 10 best guys in the league right now. And then I think,

Towns and Holmgren moving in the top 25 is significant. Great. I would have had those guys in the 30s this summer. And then Wim Benyama, who I had 10 heading into the season, dropping to 16. Not nothing either. That's Jacoby. We'll see. Maybe Jacoby's going to be a Skip Bayless. He's going to start every show with a Luz Benyama attack. Jacoby Bayless.

House, thanks for sticking with us for two hours. I had a good time. Always the best time. Thanks, buddy. All right. Good luck gambling. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Steve Cerruti and Kyle Creighton for producing as always. Thanks to Joe House and Danny Heifetz.

And I will return on this podcast on Sunday night with Cousin Sal. You can watch us on YouTube as well on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. Don't forget about our new ringer special section within FanDuel's NFL page as well if you want some last minute bets for the weekend. Try to enjoy the weekend. Hang in there. I'll see you on Sunday night.

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