NFL Playoff Locks, the Desperate Jets, and Million Dollar Picks With Mike Lombardi
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And just go nuts. Do your thing. That's why we do it. We love you. I had so much fun on the Over Under podcast. I'm about to have fun right now because our old friend Mike Lombardi is here. We're going to talk about the playoff picture, NFL team identities. We're going to talk Sopranos. We're going to talk Joel Embiid. We're going to talk million dollar picks. And then I'm going to do million dollar picks right after for week seven because we are due for an awesome week. It's all next. First, our friends from ProJab. ProJab.

All right, we are taping this on Thursday afternoon before whatever the hell happens in the Thursday night game tonight. Michael Lombardi is here. He announced last week that he's no longer doing back-to-backs.

Oh, no, that was Joel Embiid. My bad. Why did that take an announcement? Like, why did that take an announcement? Like, why did that take a press release out there? Like, seriously. Like, did anybody think he was playing back to back? It's all about the playoffs now. It's all about.

It's all about getting in shape, marrying Tim Duncan, trying to win titles. He's the Walt Disney of the NBA. We're going to freeze his body until we open it up in April. He's the Walt Disney of the NBA. Well, we're going to talk football first, and then at the end, we'll let you rant about the Sixers. You're a big identity guy with football teams. Yeah. I've learned this from you, especially when we get to mid-October when basketball is about to start. Who are we? It's week seven. It's week eight.

Who are we? What are we trying to do? What are we trying to be? And I think you and I are both really bullish in the lions. I thought it was weird the first three weeks when, you know, they, they ran like a hundred million plays in those two games and didn't score enough points. They did some weird red zone stuff. And I was like, I know who these guys are. They're going to figure it out. That is a team to me that even with Hutchinson out has an identity. But when you think about like the teams that actually have identities that have a chance to go far in the playoffs, how many teams is that?

Oh, it's really few. I think this is one year. That's why Survivor was so bad for most people. There's really not a dominating team here. You know, I think Detroit got kicked in the teeth when they threw it 53 times and let Goff do that against Tampa and lost. I think Campbell said, OK, wait a minute, we're not doing that shit no more.

But I think there's very few teams that have it. San Francisco does, if we're talking the NFC. I think Green Bay's starting to get their identity now. I really think they're becoming- What is it? Tell me what it is. It is big playability. It's explosive offense. They've scored 90 points in the first half.

I mean, you can't cover them. They can run with more power and they can turn the ball over defensively. They've been able to create some turnovers. So they're tough to play. They're an offensive control team where the quarterback can throw the ball really well on the third level. I mean, Dobbs made two plays last week. They're outstanding. And Watson came back. Speaking of victory from guys, we might have Watson for like three weeks here.

So they, I think they, Minnesota has an identity. I think Minnesota's identity is a little confused by most people. They think it's their offense. I think Minnesota's defense is their identity. They're hard to run the ball on. They're impossible to run the ball on. They rush the passer and they create negative plays by the offense.

And they're good enough on offense with the scheme and the coaching to be able to function. So I think that's their identity. San Francisco, we know what their identity is. They're going to run the football. They're going to play action. They're going to run after the catch, although they're not doing that as well this year. But that's their identity. The team I don't know has an identity is Philadelphia. Right?

I don't know what to do with Philly. They're 4-10 over the last games. They haven't scored a point in the first quarter, even though they have the second coming of Sid Gilman coaching offense for them and Kellen Moore. They haven't scored a point in the first quarter, you know, and they haven't scored over 21 points since the opening game. Think about that now. I know they have the greatest coach in the history of football. If you just read any of the analytical reports on offensive coordinators, he's by far the greatest coach of all time. But they can't really, they don't have an identity. I don't know who they are.

Well, it seems like they should be... We have these two awesome receivers and this explosive running back, and we should be really unpredictable offensively. And you should...

You take care of these two things, this third thing's gonna get you. You're never good, right? But that's not their identity at all. When I watch them, I'm like, what the fuck are these guys doing? They're trying to make Jalen Hurts the star of the show when he should be the commensurary piece. He should be the auxiliary piece. He should be the nice tie to the suit. He shouldn't be the suit, right? And so...

Like they should run it. They should play action pass. He should be under center more, you know, but yet they keep trying to focus on him. And, you know, Brown and Smith are the great players on the outside with Goddard inside. This is a good offensive line. I mean, they have talent like Detroit does, but they don't do what Detroit does.

Two other teams on this identity thing. I know you're in on the Chiefs knowing who they are. And they had that come to Jesus moment after the Christmas, whatever day that was against the Raiders last year when they were like, you know what? It's defense, ball control. Let's just try to win some 20 to 17 games. And that's who we have to be this year. Now in 2024...

Somehow their defense is better than their offense. And it's funny because Mahomes is like on Fando is the MVP favorite still, I think. Yeah. And he's definitely not the MVP of the chiefs this year. He's we know how great he is. He's not even a top five quarterback this year. Yeah. Now he's still a great player. I'm not dismissing that, but he's not having a Patrick Mahomes type year that you would say, boy, that guy's an MVP.

But I agree. I think that they know they have to win. They have problems at receiver. They have two tackles. Taylor, who has created another position, which is a wing tackle, where he can line up in the backfield. He's a wing tackle, not an offensive tackle. It's a full backslash right tackle. Yeah, he's a wing tackle, and the left tackle really struggles. But Andy knows his deficiencies, so he works around them. That's the key to football, right? And I think that's really important. Whereas if you look at some of these other teams, like Buckeye,

the Cincinnati Bengals who won't acknowledge their weaknesses. And my man's throwing it on every single down and he's wondering why his quarterback's getting a crack. Houston's interesting to me. Joe House was saying this after Mixon got hurt, that it screwed them up because they kind of wanted to be a power rushing team that could also throw the ball and then Mixon went out.

And then Collins went out, but Mixon came back. And they're playing Green Bay. I don't think we're going to get... Houston's 5-1, so it's worked out great for them so far. But whatever Houston team we're getting...

Big picture, ceiling-wise, I feel like we're not going to know until December. I want to see Collins back. I want to see Mixon healthy. I want to see how they can mix those two elements, but it's going to take a while, right? Right. Well, Mixon, they rushed for 200 yards in the opener, right? Against the Colts, against my man, Gussie Bradley's defense. And then last week, they rushed for, what, 193? I mean, Mixon makes a difference. But here's the interesting thing about Houston. They

They have no receiver on their team that averages over 10 yards a catch. I mean, I think without Collins, yeah, except for Collins. I mean, tank Dell's at 9.7 yards. Dalton Schultz is at 7.8. I think digs is at 10.3 or something like that. He was well below 10 until last week. They're not explosive as an offense. And unless Mixon's in there, they really can't run the ball. And, and Stroud isn't as good as,

as we've made him out to be, he's a good player. Don't get me wrong. Really? Is this a zag against Stroud? What's the case? No, I think when you look at his numbers, I mean, look, just look at the analytical numbers on him. He doesn't rank into the top on expected completions and all those things. He's not in the top five of any of those categories. I think he's a good player. Don't get me wrong. I'm not. But I think on the road, I think he struggles. Look, you know, I mean, last year they went into Carolina and lost. He was a rookie. I get that. But

I think when he went up to Minnesota, they didn't play very well in that game. And Minnesota's defense really – I think a lot of this is you have to handicap teams individually.

A, I think the fourth quarter is the most critical quarter to handicap. It's like if I worked in basketball, I would only study the fourth quarter. Just study the last eight minutes of the game when it's a close game. But it's the same thing in football. If you don't study the fourth quarter, you really don't know. You don't have any idea about when you have to throw it, can you throw it? When you have to run it, can you run it? When you have to stop it, can you stop it?

One other team that I think has an identity, and I don't think people realize it yet, and I can tell by with the Chargers-Cardinals line this week, is the Chargers. Because I think their defense is legit good. I think Harbaugh knows who he wants them to be. There's only six coaches that matter anymore. He's one of them, right? Herbert's been hurt the whole year. They've been trying to figure out the receiver piece of things. Dobbin's been a little better. They have this guy, Vidal, who's this little...

little shutterbug dude that I actually think with Gus Edwards out could become a factor. But I'm watching them because I think their ceiling might be a little higher than people realize. They're just like the annoying 10 and 17 that's every game they're going to pull the other team to what they want to do. You know what I mean? And every game they're going to become closer to his personality, which is highly competitive.

And that's what you saw last week. Like they were a three point favorite against the Broncos. And I thought that was too low. I thought they were the better team. And I thought one of the things in that game, Herbert was finally, we saw Herbert play really well. And I think that was important. So to me, I,

I agree. They're good on defense. Here's the thing, too. I think one of the key elements of last week was you could see the teams that are getting better and the teams that don't practice. So now we're in this world of we have to rest players to get them ready. We don't want to have any practice. We just want to get to the game. And so you're seeing like the Harbaughs, their teams are going to get better. The Chiefs, that team is going to get better. Detroit's going to get better because they're going to practice better.

and they're going to get better whereas you see like new england's best game was new england's best game was the opening game that was their best game they've gotten worse every single week because

because they're probably not practicing to the level you need to practice. They're worried about injuries. And Carolina is another example. I mean, they're actually getting worse if it's possible. You can see they miss more tackles in the open field. One of the things Washington has done is they practice. They've gotten better. They got beat last week, but they're getting better. They're not any good on defense, but they're getting better.

I agree with 90% of that, but it doesn't explain why the Jaguars aren't better. Because I know they practice super. Oh, no, no, wait. They're terrible, too. They don't practice either. Yeah, they don't practice. I mean, that's the whole thing with Dougie. I mean, they're so soft. They have no...

physicality they have no identity he'll call i mean he'll just keep calling passes and he'll keep checking them off when you text me this right after that you nailed it that was their best you were they weren't gonna score another point after that drop that they laid it all out there that was it they ran out of office right he had like his sixth place he was going in so this identity discussion is fun because of what the jets just did so the jets

who got their ass kicked by Buffalo, right? Buffalo, anytime Buffalo really needed to make a big play or get a third down, they got it. Jets come out of that game and they're like, you know what we need? Devante Adams. Yeah. If we can only have one more receiver, we could have stopped Josh Allen. Like what? Did you watch the game? Of course I watched the game. No, I'm not saying you. I'm saying the Jets. And they can't block. Yeah.

It's like, cool, you got another receiver. You still can't block. You still can't get stops on defense. What is the point? Let me ask you a question. What is the end game for the Jets? Like, what is their end game?

I mean, I know they got great pub on this and Aaron's happy and everybody's all happy. Oh, good. I'm glad Aaron's happy. I'm glad they're 40. Kick that of him is happy. Well, what's their end game? Like if they don't, if they get is, is a good season, a wild card is a good season. The conference champ, like what is their end game? Because next year they're a disaster. Well, if we were hanging out with, if we were buddies with Woody Johnson, we were playing poker with them.

And we're just telling him what he wants to hear. We would say, Hey, if your kicker had made a couple of kicks, you guys would be four and two. Like, why can't you make the Superbowl? That would be the case, right? You're two, you're basically three shit kicks away from being four and two.

Right. I don't agree with that. I don't think they're a four and two team. And I don't, you know, I, I, I think it's kind of shocking how inconsistent their defense is, but I guess it makes sense. No, I mean, but they're another team. Like, you know, are they going to keep like Rogers? Can he, is he going to stand up in November or December? He gets a crappy out of them. Also, if you screw up Rogers has entered this LeBron zone where if you're a teammate and you,

don't do well by him or you make a mistake. It's like the spotlight. Like now Mike Williams is the worst receiver in the league. I'm pretty sure Mike Williams is pretty good receiver. Okay. Maybe he should have cut four yards over on that one play, but now he fucking sucks and he's got to be run out of town.

I mean, it's unbelievable. Now they're trying to trade him. He might go back to the Chargers. I'm sure Pittsburgh's probably interested. There's a bunch of teams interested, but he's as good as gone. I mean, he's as good as gone off the Jets. I would think.

Yeah. And so because Devante replaced him, Lassard now moves to the third receiver, even though he made that they scored 20 points, but seven of them came on a Hail Mary. I mean, like, let's be clear here. Todd Dowling didn't electrify the offensive team here. I guess this wasn't like, oh, my God, they scored 13 points, basically. Yeah, they got Breeze going in the first quarter. And that was really the only thing.

And I say that as somebody who has Breeze and Garrett Wilson on multiple fantasy teams. That was the only thing that felt different. And then Buffalo shut that down. What's the Buffalo identity to you other than we have Josh Allen?

Well, I think Buffalo can run the ball. I think they have changed their identity. I think they went from being an 11 team to where they were going to throw it all the time, like Cincinnati. When Cincinnati came into Buffalo two years ago and kicked the shit out of them, I think they had a wake-up call. I think they said, you know what? They finally realized they play in Western New York. Like, it's cold, it's windy, it's bad. We're not going to win with just this offense.

And so I think they can run the ball. I mean, that first drive of the get Jackie and they just ran it down their throat, seven runs. I mean, right down. I think their identity is we're going to run the ball. We're going to control the clock. We're going to be a nickel defense. We're going to give up runs, but we're going to be able to, if we play from in front, we'll be a good team. I'm not sure they're good enough, but they have the best player. I mean, he is truly, if he gets this team to the East and into the playoffs deep, he's the MVP of the league because he's got them on his back.

And I tell you this, and I didn't think he could. Coming out, I just was worried about his accuracy. But he has improved that. But he's so goddamn hard to tackle. And he's just such a good playmaker. I mean, he just does things on that second play that you can't coach.

Is there a TJ Watt case or is the defensive player just never winning a VP? I think TJ Watt deserves to get the MVP of the league. I mean, it's not enough to give him defensive player of the year. It's like, I mean, you can't, I mean, you go in the game saying we got to block TJ Watt and then TJ Watt creates two fumbles. I mean, I don't know what Antonio Pierce was thinking, but clearly, you know, he destroyed the game. So I bring that up because at least on Fando, he's 201 win the MVP.

And I would say if you just watch football this year, he's been the player that's jumped out of the television the most every single game. He's completely and he's getting double teamed. They'll show replays. You're like, how did he do that?

Um, I, he's made more plays that didn't count because there were like stupid flags that called like a fumble back. And I think he's having one of the best defensive player years that we've seen. Pittsburgh's not very good. I got one receiver. They, they are offensive lines of freaking mess. Fields has been awful the last two weeks. They're losing guys on defense. I feel like Watts like carrying them. They're four and two needs. I would say he's the number one, number two, number three reason.

He is the reason. I mean, look, he has two strip pumbles he had last week, one of them in the goal line. And then he strips the ball out of the midfield where he punches the ball out. I mean, you know, and to me, he separates himself from everybody else. Like Micah Parsons is a really good player, but Micah doesn't dominate like this guy does. Not this year he hasn't dominated. Not like that. I mean, Micah's good, but the Lawrence Taylor comparisons might be a little extreme. You might want to stop that. But to me, this T.J.,

This TJ guy, he is, I mean, he is really a messing machine. And I think they beat Dallas. If they would have had Nate Herbig on the other side. Yeah. He came out in that midway through the Dallas game. Yeah. He got hurt with a hamstring and that's why Dallas won the game. I think that little thing told you, you know, Dallas, Dallas isn't really any good. I mean, let's be clear. They're not even in this conversation. The TJ Watt piece, you're a big history guy as am I.

Who, who's the doppelganger? What, what kind of pool is he swimming in right now? Big picture historically.

Man, you know, he is because he's so unique as a rusher. Like he's he's got to be he's different than Bruce Smith because he doesn't play on the line. But he says dominating as Bruce Smith was when Bruce Smith was going good. I mean, you had to take him out of the game. Bruce Smith was over this kid's in a three point. And the thing about the thing about T.J. Watt is it's really kind of interesting for young players to study him. He only has one pass rush move. That's all he has.

but you can't stop it. He just knows how to do it and you can't really handle it. It's just the same move all the time. You know it's coming, but you can't handle it. So coming from the outside, those 34 backers, I mean, he is truly an outside backer, but he puts his hand in the dirt.

You know, I'm not saying he's Lawrence Taylor, but he's in the way of dominating the game the way Taylor did. He really has. I mean, he deserves votes for the MVP. You can't give it to Mahomes. You can't give it to any of those quarterbacks that haven't played at a high level. I mean, Jaden Dandles is playing better than most of them. Yeah, Lamar and Stroud are number two and three right now. What basketball player is T.J. Watt? Basketball player is T.J. Watt. One move that's unstoppable, relentless. You know, uh...

To me, he's kind of like got a little bit of Barkley in his game. You wouldn't think he could be as good as he is. He wouldn't be as good because of his size. He's not that intimidating. He's playing power forward at 6'4.5", like Barkley did, but yet he can dominate the game like Barkley did. To me, that's kind of what he's got. Barkley, to me, was so good because he had incredible balance.

You know, Barkley was never on the wrong foot when he jumped. He was always able to be in balance. This kid's always in balance. It's an untold scouting thing when you're watching really good players is are they in balance? Are they able to jump in a balanced situation? And this kid can do it. He's really remarkable. That's a great question. I think to me, he's an undersized guy at the position that he dominates at.

He didn't think that he's not a small player, but he plays bigger. No, I think you nailed that. I think Barkley is a good one for that. Is there a young pass rusher that you feel like is the next guy?

Obviously, Parsons is already there, so you can't say him. Well, I thought Hutchinson's that young guy. I think Hutchinson's really has. I think to me, if I'm Jacksonville, I'm a little bit embarrassed I took Travion Walker over Hutch. A little? Yeah. I mean, because this is a kid who's proven he's getting better and he likes it. And he's going to keep getting better. He's got such good rush moves. I'll tell you, Hendrickson. Now, I thought Hendrickson last week against the Giants, I thought something was wrong with Andrew Thomas because he never gets beat.

that bad like he did in that game. And you just had to think he was hurt. And of course, now he comes out with a foot injury that he tried to play through the list rank. But to me, he's really good as well. These guys, when you have to, you know, when you have to, you know, it's one thing to say we're going to chip on the guy. Like everybody wants to chip on TJ, but it looks good on a blackboard, but it doesn't come to fruition. I actually don't like the Russell Wilson move for them this week.

I thought I should have waited a week on it. I don't like it for this reason because Russell refuses to work into the pocket.

So one of the things that, you know, what you've got to be able to do is if you're going to run like fields, you got to be able to run away from this is what Caleb Williams is learning in the NFL that I can run away from at USC. I can't run away from it in the NFL. Well, Russell can't run away from anybody and he won't work the vertical level of the pocket. So that's a real issue for him. And then to me, I think fields, even though he's not, I think fields is improved from Chicago, but he's not there. He's not, he's not bad last week. Yeah.

He was bad and he's too inconsistent. You can't, I'm sure Mike's probably saying we just can't, we can't get enough consistency. But I think, look, if you're Pittsburgh, you're probably saying we got to figure out what we have with Russell, right? Because we have no quarterback next year. Right. Well, they, they play the Jets this week.

And I thought New York giants the week after they had the New York, New York special. So I try to find out one way or the other. I mean, look, this is a must win for the jets. I mean, Oh yeah. I mean, if they can't beat Pittsburgh with that offense, Pittsburgh, I mean, I can't see Russell be a dynamic in that offense. I really can't. Well, if they lose this game, then Mike Williams gets the Tony Soprano call.

Yeah. He said, Mike, Aaron Rodgers overdose. Silvio's going to come pick you up. No. What? Okay. I'll go to the hospital. We'll make another trade. He'll have to make another trade. I mean, you know, only Woody could say thinking is overrated. Here's a guy who's won 34% of his games since 2010 and he thinks thinking is overrated. Maybe you might want to think a little bit. Do you think Adriana knew when Silvio was picking her up?

No, I don't think she did. You don't think she knew until it was like halfway in the car, right? I think it's one of the greatest scenes ever. I think she knew when he started to drive. I love how Stevie Van Zandt's talking to her, trying to reassure her. Chris is going to be okay. He's going to be okay. And the music they played, I can't find that song that they played last night.

Leaving Los Angeles, it's called. I thought that was such a great song that they played in the background. But long-term parking has got to be in the top five of Supremaculture. Season five, I think, is my favorite. That's where I've landed.

I think it's the best start to finish. Best written, deepest. There's the most subtle shit going on. And it has two of the best episodes ever. I think you're right about Tony B because I think Tony B was more complex than Ralphie. He was more complex than Richie. Richie was a straight gangster. Yeah, he was a cartoon. Yeah, you knew where he was coming from. And Ralphie was just a little bit too fucked up. But Tony B was devious. He was devious. Yeah.

- Well, also the fact that all the stuff that he was also named Tony, he was the alternate way Tony's life could have gone. He was kind of the worst version of Tony and all these different, we could talk about Sopranos forever. We're gonna take a break and come back and talk playoff picture.

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This is right around the time you can really steal a couple of playoff teams with good odds, right? Like, like the jets right now are two and four plus one 36 to make the playoffs on FanDuel. And it's like, all right, if you think the jets are going to rally and be Pittsburgh this week, this is the week to take them. There's also some long shot stuff like Denver's three and three.

They're plus 265. The AFC sucks. Like it's basically five teams and then God only knows. Then on the other side, you know, you're looking at the NFC where there's, there's teams where the odds seem out of whack, like Philly's minus 235 to make the playoffs. I don't feel good about that at all. Green Bay is only minus 164. Seattle's plus 225 with a really winnable game this week. So it's all over the map. I wanted to go through,

and just hit teams, and you tell me, do you mentally have them in the playoffs already? So KC 5-0, I assume, yes? Yes. Houston 5-1, winning the AFC South. Is there any way that doesn't happen now? I mean, I think Indy's going to play Richardson this week. I mean, seriously, there's no telling him with Bradley's defense. They can't ever get control of the game. I mean, how does Houston not win it? We don't even know if Doug's going to make it back from London.

you know, this week. So, I mean, you know, where's, where are they going in Tennessee? I mean, Tennessee is a comedy really to continue to play. We'll let us at this point. I mean, I get it. If you have to play the guy, you draft them second overall in the draft. I get that. Right. But you drafted this guy on the second round. I mean, you have no real, you have no real investment in them and he keeps costing you games and you keep putting them out there. That's on you. That's not on the kid. Like, I don't blame. I mean, that's just ridiculous. So you wouldn't, you wouldn't,

You wouldn't trade Vrabel for Will Levis and Callahan? I wouldn't trade Vrabel for Ray Carthon and Will Levis. I would have made that deal. I doubt I would have made that deal. I would have said no. But Ray Carthon won that battle. I mean, he won it. And, you know, oh, by the way, Jamal Adams won in his release. Of course, they signed him and he can't play. Like, he's going to get a, you know, anyway.

So what's Houston's competition? I mean, you could eliminate Tennessee. You could eliminate Indy. Indy's not going to really go anywhere the way they're going. Right.

Indy's going to play Miami with the DJ. He's going to spin some records this week. And I think he's got a chance to win that game if he spins the right records. I mean, why not? DJ Mikey Mack, he had the bye week last week. So he's had two weeks. He's in the studio. He probably went to the record store, bought himself a bunch of new albums. He's going to spin some shit in there. I can't wait. Techno beats.

Yeah. I mean, I can't wait to see. He doesn't win. This is a must win for him. Yeah. No, it is. Their season's over. I think their season's over anyway. I think they stink. I didn't think they were a playoff team before they had all the injuries because I thought that Buffalo game in week two,

When they were getting their ass kicked, it was like, this isn't a playoff team. What are we doing? He kept spinning albums in that game. He didn't even change the music sheet. So I like, like, I think I don't, but I think Miami could win that game. I don't know if I want to take that Miami in the game. Cause every time I take Miami, it kills me, but I, but who else is Houston's competition? Nobody. So Casey and Houston were put them in. I just think Baltimore four and two,

They're just too good offensively. Yeah, they are. And they can stop the run. And they're built... When it gets colder, it'll be good for them. Lamar is amazing.

Even this week. Tucker's made more kicks. Tucker got his act going a little bit better, which helps. And bringing in Dean Peace will help their defense. They needed that, right? Zach Orr was three years as a coach. I said it this summer when we talked. He's not ready to be a defensive coordinator. It's just he's just on Sunday. It just happens too quick. I think bringing Dean in really helped. And one thing, again, you talk about team getting better. This offensive line from week one to where they are now, much better, much improved, right? And they're just

Well, the Derrick Henry piece, who, I mean, he's another guy. We did T.J. Watt. Like, what is the Derrick Henry doppelganger historically? This is basically if Earl Campbell had just played for 12 years, right? It's remarkable how he doesn't ever get tired. I mean, he's Chuck Foreman with the size of Chuck Foreman with the power of Earl Campbell. I mean, and he does, he's got eight touchdowns rushing already. He's, and he's Mariano Rivera. He can close it out.

So he's got, you know, and they, and the thing about him that makes him so important to Baltimore, it forces Baltimore to have an identity. It forces Baltimore to not stray and go down. Oh, we want to start throwing this thing. It forces them to give the ball to the play. Okay. We got to feed the monster here.

And so I think, but I think Baltimore might be, I think Baltimore could be the best team if they fix that secondary. If they make a move like Buffalo did to get Russell Douglas last year, if they move to get another corner, I think they could really improve their defense. And if they give, and Zach's got some help now defensively, I think they're the best team.

The Henry, it's really nice when teams make trades. That's great for them, but also great for the player. And I feel like he was just kind of buried the last two years, right? We had almost, it was hitting that Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona after he lost Carson Palmer point where it's just like, is this guy who is this guy even good anymore? I have no idea. And he's good. Here's the thing though, Bill, here's what drives you crazy. People say, well, we couldn't afford him on the cap.

Well, I mean, Jerry Jones says that, right? Well, you gave Brandon Cooks 12 million. You made a choice to keep Brandon Cooks. You didn't want Henry. Like you do have choices. We all make choices. Just when you make the wrong choice, it really magnifies. It's like them saying that the Giants, we don't want Barkley. We don't have money to sign Barkley. Well, you overpaid on for Lumino or you re-signed Van Noot. Those two, those two say that that was the 3 million you didn't have. Right.

He gave it away. He made choices. And so Baltimore's choice of signing Henry, it was the perfect guy. And I think it really works better because this offensive line is so young that they needed somebody. They needed to kind of grow into it, and they're getting better. Perfect team for him. Buffalo would be the fourth playoff team. I have no faith in Buffalo defensively. I really don't. I think to me that they could get pushed around and bullied, but I have all the faith in the world in Josh Allen.

I guess my thing with them is they already have four wins. And if you go through the rest of the schedule, I just don't see how they don't get to 10. Well, they have Will Evans. What quarter do you think Will throw them on? Right. So there'll be five and two after this week. And then they would have to go five and...

five and six the rest of the way just to get to 10? Well, who's going to beat them again? I mean, you got to, you know, Miami's going to play them up in Buffalo late in the year. I mean, the Jets, you think they're going, I mean, Rodgers, by the time of the year, his body's going to be old and that offensive line for the Jets ain't getting better. I can tell you that. So 10 wins wins the AFC East, I think. Yeah, I think so. And I don't think the Jets can get to 10 wins. So Buffalo would have to go nine and eight

And that would mean that they would have to go four and six the rest of the way. And I just don't see that unless Josh Allen got hurt. So I'm putting them in. So that leaves four spots left. Pittsburgh's four and two. They're minus 142. Chargers three and two. They're minus 152. Cincy's two and four plus 106. Indy's in there. The Jets, Denver, Jags. Is there anybody that you would say,

I think I have these guys in because for me, I think it's the Chargers. I don't feel awesome about it, but I feel the best about them, about anybody. What you're looking for is a team that is going to constantly improve during the year. I don't know if it's Denver. I mean, tonight we'll see what Denver does. I mean, their favorite, New Orleans, is beat up. They'd have nobody really. They should win this to get the four and three. But, you know, I think to me, Cincy would be the only team that you would say,

you know, if they improve, if they get better, they did last week against the giants defensively, which is not saying a lot against the giants. But to me, that would be the one, like to me, since he's better than Indy, since he's better than Pittsburgh in terms of their total team, that the talent they have on offense, they, since he's got to play better defensively. The problem is they have four losses already. They're at Cleveland this week, which is now I think a must win. Cause I think two and five, there's no coming back.

For road games, and they have four losses already, they're at Baltimore still. They're at the Chargers. They're at Dallas. They're at Tennessee. They're at Pittsburgh plus the Cleveland game. There's not a lot of room for error anymore. They still have Pittsburgh at home. They have Cleveland at home, Denver at home. They got Philly at home. And they would have to go, I think, 8-2, 8-3. They got to go 8-3. Yeah, they got to go 8-3. They got to get it together.

And they can go eight and three. They're good enough offensively. But to me, I worry about them. I worry about how they don't really play with any physicality. You know, everything's on burn. Well, the offensive line isn't as good as it needs to be. They really at right tackle. Mims, the rookie's a good player, but he's a rookie. You know, they're there to me. We've done that. Trent Brown got hurt.

Oh, we knew that. He's so happy. I hope you're sitting down when you get that news. I mean, I love Trent Brown. If he wanted to play, he'd be great. He does. I mean, he's so, he could be one of the best left tacklers in football. He just has no interest in being a left tackle. One thing with the Bengals, I like gravitating toward teams that you look at them and you go, oh, they can definitely do that. Those two receivers with Burrow and when they have Chase Brown back there instead of Moss, and I know he gets Chase Brown can't block, but, um,

At least there's like speed and you're making decisions on defense. You're giving up something. You don't want to play them. I mean, Indy doesn't want to play them. Indy, I mean, they'll put 400 on Gussie. You know, they don't want to play them. I mean, you know, like they're a good team. They're a really good team. They've got a lot of stuff going. And I think to me, if they can just get better defensively, look, you know, the Baltimore game was embarrassing. I know they had a players only meeting, but that was embarrassing. I mean, they just...

They, you know, now Mike Hilton back last week in the slot corner helped them in the run fits. It really helped them, but they've got to get better. I mean, but they can do it. They look at the jets can do it. Why couldn't the, since he's better than the jets to me. Right. Well, I think he can legitimately score 30. Everybody thinks the jet can score 30. I'm not sure about that. They haven't yet. Rogers hasn't thrown for 300 yards since I think COVID. Yeah.

I think you have to get to 10 wins. I don't think the Jets can do it. I'm not ruling out Cincy going 8-3. Pittsburgh's already 4-2 with this Jets-Giants combo. And if they win those and they're 6-2, now you basically have to go 4-5 the last nine games. Even if they go 5-3, they're going to get to a wild card. I mean, he's just too good of a coach and they know who they are. So they have...

They're home games. They got Baltimore and Casey left on the road. They have Washington, Cleveland, Cincy, Philly, and Baltimore left for those last nine. So it's, it's definitely a harder schedule. Let me make the Denver case for you. I know, I know you're in on Sean, um, just in general and, and,

I heard you say about how there's so few good head coaches anymore that the good head coaches we have now, it's an even bigger advantage than it was 30 years ago. I completely agree because you can see it on the TVs with the teams that where the sidelines locked in, where they're doing smart things, where it's like, hey, it's fourth and four on the 10. Maybe I'll just kick a field goal here and take three points. How about that idea? Yeah.

Yeah. It's going to be a 2017 game. I might need the three points. Andy Reid's won more Super Bowls than any coach in the league. And he's only gone for it three times on fourth down, but he gets field goals. And nobody wants to copy Andy. Like nobody wants to copy it. Just take the points. Yeah. Don't listen to him. But Denver's got their next two is at New Orleans tonight and then Carolina. So they could be five and three, you know, a week and a half from now.

They still have for home games, Cleveland. God only knows who's playing quarterback that week, Indianapolis, Atlanta, and then week 18 KC who could literally have nothing to play for. Right. So they might just with the games I mentioned have nine wins. I see them as a nine and eight, eight, not look, they're good on defense. Don't, don't ever really good on D if they stay healthy, they're really good. Now. So 10 is not playing tonight, but they're really good on defense.

I mean, you could make the case. Look, they're better to me. I thought Bo Nix had his best game last week in the fourth quarter. He had 145 quarterback rating. Yeah, garbage time. It was garbage time. I get all that. But at least it gave him maybe some confidence to go into this week, tonight. If he plays good tonight, if they win tonight, which they should win tonight. I mean, look, they're playing an easy schedule. They've got to get the players again. They're going to win that one, right? Yeah.

They're going to get to nine. So I think I have Pittsburgh and the Chargers. And then I think I agree on Cincy that maybe they can sneak their way to 10. If they don't sneak to 10, then we're just going to have a three-way nine and eight. And nobody's going to be able to predict that. But you know, Cincy will beat Pittsburgh in one of those games. I mean, they should have beat Baltimore. They had Baltimore. They had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against Baltimore. Baltimore's a good team. NFC, much harder to figure out.

I only have three teams that I'm positive will make the playoffs and I'm not even positive on one of them. Detroit's four and one they're minus four 50. I think they're the best team in the NFC. I've never wavered on that. Even without Hutchinson, uh, they have the most answers. They're just, they can block, they can, they do everything. San Francisco three and three at minus two 80. This is more division play to me that,

Seattle would have to be the team that beats them. That would mean Seattle has to win in Atlanta this week just to even think about that because their schedule gets harder. And I also think San Francisco kind of underachieved. I know they're 3-3, but they're really like a 4.5-3.

win team that just won less. I mean, they got a 10-point lead with Arizona. Their kicker tries to be a tough guy and gets an extra goal, right? And they turn the ball over in the fourth quarter there. And then the Rams, they give up a 10-point lead. Moody misses a field goal and Bell drops a pass. Don't forget the fake punt. Yeah, they're 5-1, right? Yeah. So...

You know, I mean, I think to me, I think the question about San Francisco, I don't know if they're the number one seed in the NFC, but they're going to make the playoffs. They shouldn't. They shouldn't win the West because it's really the Rams are not good. I mean, how the Rams are a six and a half point favorite against the Raiders should tell you everything you need to know. Like, how is that even possible? Like the Rams should be six and a half point better than Texas. But yet they are because that's how bad the Raiders are. And then make the the.

The players wanted Antonio Pierce. They thought he deserved it. That's always worked. You've got to listen to the players. You've got to listen to the players. The players know what's best. What do you need management for? Arizona, to me, the biggest joke nobody wants to talk about. Kyler Murray, paying him all that money is a joke. It's a joke. It was right there in front of you. The owner probably wanted to do it. Did you see him on the fumble when they fumbled in Green Bay on the handoff?

He didn't even make any attempt to go get the ball. He had no interest in even getting his uniform dirty. Of course, to me, that's one of those games where, did you see the Cardinals sideline? It was Green Bay. It's October. They had fucking full hats on. They had heavy clothes. You should have just gone right to the window and bet everything on Green Bay. They had no interest in being out there.

So I don't see Arizona. I don't see Seattle. And I don't see the Rams. Like, I think San Francisco is by far, now I'm not saying San Francisco is a great team, but to me, they're the best of that team. All right, so there's two. I'm going to do something dramatic here. I'm putting Washington in at 4-2. I think they are. They have seven home games left, Mike.

They're four and two with seven home games left in the games. You know, Carolina and Tennessee, they have home. There's two wins. Then they play Chicago, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Philly, and Atlanta. That's at least three and two. I've already got to nine wins and they're on the road against the giants, New Orleans, Dallas, Philly. They'll split the Dallas games. Worst case scenario. They're a 10 win team to me. I wrote this week. They're the best team in the East because Philly can't play past defense. Yeah. Like don't throw the ball all over on Philly.

And, you know, they've done a really good, did Dan Quinn credit. The team's gotten better every week. Like, I mean, I think Dallas is a joke. I don't think Dallas is a good team. I'm not discussing, we're not discussing Dallas. Philly. To me, it's Philly or Washington. It ain't the Giants, right? No. Well, I think,

You know, the Giants had bad luck in a couple of those games, but losing Thomas and Thibodeau now, it's not like they have a ton of guys to lose. The guys take 16 plays to kick a field goal. Yeah. I mean, they're not beating anybody like that. They're dink and dunk. I mean, even when they had neighbors, it was 16. I mean, they lost to the Cowboys at home. Right. I mean, we don't think the Cowboys are any good. For hard games, Philly has at Cincy, home Dallas, Baltimore, Washington,

home. Uh, and then, uh, Oh, that's road. And then home Washington, Pittsburgh. So there's a nine and eight world. And I also, I don't like the Sirianni. I thought it was just a really, really weird week. And you're obviously tied into Philadelphia more than anybody. Like once it feels like it's past the point of no return from a weirdness daily topic standpoint, right?

He crossed that line. He crossed that line. First of all, at what point is he going to grow up, right? At some point, you're the leader of the team. Show some maturity, right? You know, you're not some kid in a club. You know, maybe if you're spinning records with Mike, but I mean, you're not some kid in a club just trying to urge somebody on. You represent a franchise. You're bigger than that. Like, you got to act mature. And then to bicker with the Philly fans, I mean, once they turn on you, it's awkward. Great idea.

I mean, it's over. I mean, you can't do that. And then he brings his kids to the press conference as a shield so that nobody asks him hard questions. Look, I love kids and dogs and movies, but at the reality, you can't bring them to the press conference when you got stuff like that going on. Like, that's really stupid. Like, I just think to me, he's too immature. He's been immature and he's got such a bad temper. He's got anger management issues that I think it really affects their team. And I know the players are saying they like him, but you know how that shit goes.

Yeah. Look, their defense is not good enough. They've had the year. Here's the thing that's interesting. They've scored no points in the first quarter this year. They scored 204 points in the second quarter two years ago. They played from in front that year. And Nick said to the media this, well, it's no big deal. We haven't scored in the first quarter. What do you mean it's no big deal? He only scored 41 points in the first half all year. The Packers have scored 90. And you played the Packers. So to me,

I think they have good on paper, but they're on paper. I'm disappointed in how they played, but a lot of it goes back to him. I like kids, dogs, and movies.

of my actual Mike Lombardi quote. I would have thrown in the Sopranos and I would have thrown in the three technique. Those are your five favorite things. Oh, and chicken Parmesan? You put a dog in a commercial, the commercial's going to be a hit, right? You put a little kid in a commercial, it's a hit. It's a win. So when you bring your kid, like the only thing he didn't bring to that press conference was his dog. Minnesota playoff team to you? They're 5-0 already. Yeah.

I think they are because here's why they play. You can't run the ball on them. They play in a dome. They're hard to beat there. They really are. And, and they do enough offensively that they know how to manage Darnold. He's due for a blow up game. We get that. I think they need Aaron Jones back. There's no question about that, but they're a good team. They have Indies, Arizona and Chicago all at home. They have road games at the Rams, Jacksonville and Tennessee. Yeah.

And they play Chicago, Seattle, Detroit on the road. I don't see a path where they don't win 10. And this next team, you and I both really like this team, this Green Bay team. You talked about them a little bit earlier, but they're four and two. Their easiest home games left are Miami, New Orleans, Chicago. They also get to play on the road against our guy, Doug Peterson and Jacksonville.

Their schedule's a little tough, though. They have some hard games, but I believe in the talent with that team, especially if they have all the receivers going. I just think they're, from a talent standpoint, a top five or six team. - Well, look, I think anybody who's playing the AFC South this year, like the AFC North is, it helps you get three teams in.

I think it's going to, because you're going to get those wins against those teams. I mean, you're going to beat Tennessee. You're going to be in the, based on who they play quarterback. Like this week, Miami, if they get Richardson, that's a good chance for them to win the game. If Flacco were playing, you wouldn't even consider taking, you would think they would win, right? It's the same. And then the only team you have to compete with is Houston. I mean, it's going to be a dumpster fire. Dougie doesn't win this week in London. Right. Well,

I don't know if I told you this, but when Sal and I did the pod on Sunday, we came up with the nickname middle seat Doug for Doug. Cause we thought they're going to fire him and send him home, but, but not want to pay for a business class or even an aisle seat. So he was just going to be in row 33 B. So then we decided his name was middle seat Doug. I know we're on your nickname corner with coaches. You're the creator of the clapper and DJ Mikey back, but the disc jockey, but middle seat Doug's pretty good.

Yeah, it's really good. And I'll tell you why it's good. Because have you seen this new stadium they're building down in Jacksonville? No. I know they're building it. I haven't seen it, though. Is it like a Clippers arena thing? It's $1.8 billion. Like, you're not getting anybody to come see that Jacksonville team if they don't just change the organization. I mean, that owner has really no choice but to change it. And hiring Ben Johnson ain't going to put people in those seats. You're going to have to hire somebody that can come in there and win.

Well, I know you're too close to this to give an honest answer because you do a pod with them and you've been friends with them for 40 years. But the two culture, city culture teams are Jacksonville and Vegas that are going to need a coach this one. And both of them feel very Belichick-y to me. And Dallas. I think Rabel in this thing too, though. You got to put Rabel in it. Why wouldn't you hire Rabel and let him run your program? Or Pete Carroll if he feels like he's got three years left. Those are just like...

Big hires. Hey, we have this guy now. Yeah. I mean, look, look, I mean, if you want to look, they should go. I mean, how are you so bad? You don't even talk like you're Carolina. You're so bad. You don't even talk to Belichick or Rabel last year. It's pretty rough. Well, they had Dave Canales, an offensive coordinator for like a year and a half. So we have both, we have green Bay and Minnesota. So that's three teams.

I'm not buying Chicago. I'm very happy for them that they had those three good weeks in a row against really shit defenses week after week. I still have questions about how they're going to block. Um, I'm out. So can you, let's figure out this Atlanta, Tampa thing. Both of them are foreign to, uh,

Um, they play each other at some point. Tampa's next four home Baltimore home Atlanta at Kansas city home San Francisco. So they could be like five and five than three weeks. And Atlanta's schedule is a little easier, but I think we're aligned on this. I don't really like Atlanta. I feel like Atlanta got super lucky. Like I, to me, Atlanta is a two and four or three and three team that is somehow miraculously four and two.

And look, they still can't rush the passer. Judon has one and a half sacks, so does Garrett. They can't put pressure on the passer. And they're going to always be in close games. And those close games are going to go one way or the other, and they could tilt that way from your direction. I think Tampa's the best team there. I think 10-7, 9-8 wins that. I would go with Tampa here. I know they have a hard schedule. As for the Bears, I mean, the Bears have played against – their strength of victory wins is 1.82.

That's not even, that's the lowest by far. Their four wins have come against teams with a record, I think they have four wins total.

So like they've beaten up on the bad teams and credit them for doing it and get credit Iberflues. But we, you know, when they play against a good team with a good pass rush, they're going to have some trouble. There's no question. Yeah. I think that's good. I mean, Green Bay is better than Chicago. I don't think there's a, I think Philly is better than Chicago. So I don't see, like I would put Philly and Green Bay in the playoffs before I put Chicago. Okay. So Detroit, San Francisco, Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay, one of Atlanta, Tampa, we'll say Tampa,

And that leaves the last spot. Philly might sneak in somehow. Yeah, I think Philly will. I think Philly's too good not to get in there, but they got to play better. They're 4-10 over the last 14 games. They got to play better.

but they have enough players to play better if they're a state. But one thing about Philly, now they get out of shape. They're not as well-conditioned team as the longer the year goes, you worry about them. So I think Washington gets better. I think San Francisco will get better. Detroit keeps getting better. Look, Chicago's gotten better too, but you know. It's hard to know how real it is. We'll know. We'll know in two weeks. We didn't mention Seattle, by the way. Seattle's three and three. If they somehow beat Atlanta-

But their schedule is pretty brutal. The best thing is they have Arizona twice and they have the Rams twice, right? And the Rams might be a mess. But other than that, they're playing Buffalo, Green Bay, Minnesota, the Jets, San Francisco. It's tough. But I think this week in a dome where they're playing perfect conditions, no pass rush, I think Geno will play well. I think this could be a 38-35 game. I think it could be a shootout. Okay. Well, let's take one more break and I want to throw some picks at you and then we get talking beat.

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Just visit simply safe.com slash BS 50% off. This offer is only valid for one week. So visit the website now, simply safe for two eyes, simply safe.com slash BS. There's no safe, like simply safe. All right. This for a million dollar picks. I know you did the thing with Russo. I don't want to step on your picks, but I really liked the slate this week. Yeah. The Eagles and the giants.

This Giants team, I feel like has passed the point of no return with the injuries. The line right now, as we're taping, this is still Eagles minus three. I'm all over. I don't understand it.

I don't get it either. I mean, to me, the value is not on it. I mean, look, I don't see it. I think the Eagles are the better team. Look, I'm looking at my board right now. At the Westgate, it's still three. Now it's three minus 118. At Sportsbook, it's three minus 120. It's going to go to three and a half by Sunday for sure. We're taking it now at three. So they don't.

The Giants don't have their left tackle anymore, who's the best lineman they had. So now their line's in shambles. They don't have Tibb, though, so their pass rush is the same. They're on their backup kicker still. Neighbors coming back from the concussion. Not even positive. He's playing. Slayton's hurt.

Like, here's the thing. If the Eagles lose this game, that's it for Sirianni. Like, you have to, that's, it's done. So there's a chance they quit on him, but I don't see any way they don't beat the Giants. It would be one of the worst losses of the year. The Giants' strength is their defensive front. The Eagles can block them. Yeah. The Eagles can block that front. When I put my numbers together, I thought this line was going to be five. The line opened up at five and a half. The line before, you know, the look ahead line was five and a half.

But, you know, the Philly, I think people see problems in Philly's locker room. Yeah. Pretty easy to see. I think we both like the Seahawks a little bit plus three against Atlanta because Seattle, I mean, they have the number one passing offense right now, right? And look, I know Terrell got an interception last week, but I mean,

Carolina was moving the ball on them. They was running the ball. They were moving the ball on them. I mean, that was a closer game than the score ended up. Look, I think Carolina is one of the worst teams I've seen in the last five years. I really do. And they, they're really bad, but to me, I don't see how they're going to win. I don't see how they're going to win a game. I don't see any way they can win a game. Forget covering a line. I don't see it. But to me that they were playing with Atlanta, they just,

I think Atlanta is going to be in a lot of games that are going to come down to the final eight minutes of the game and they got to make a play here and make a play there. And they're fortunate that their kickers so good and they play endorsed.

So Atlanta, you mentioned the lack of pass rush. They're 28th in QB hits. Yeah. 30th in QB hurries. Yeah. That's good for Seattle because they can't block. And they're 32nd in passing defensive players in the draft. Yeah. You know, you got, everybody wants to talk about, oh, they got Drake London. I mean, Drake London is a nice player, but you know, he's like,

He's a good player, but he's not the 16th pick. You passed up good players for that. How about Kyle Pitts? They give him the 140-yard play a game, and then he's just in the witness protection program after that. He can't block anybody. You passed up. You could have picked Michael. You put Michael Parsons and Jalen Carter on this defense. What do you have?

Kyle Pitts is with Vito Spadafore and Johnny Cakes in New Hampshire. He's up in Boonton. Yeah, he's up in that little New Hampshire town. Yeah, that's right. All right. We both like Seattle. I'm going to guess you like the Packers minus two and a half against Houston. This seems like a bad spot for Houston. Also not a must-win game for them. No Nico Collins. And I just, I like the spot for Green Bay. I think every week there's a team that's,

when after the week we go, oh, those guys, they're fine. Or that team's really good. I think this is the week for Green Bay where we go, oh, Green Bay, they're a contender. I love Green Bay. You know what my problem is with this game? What? Scott Novak's still in the game. Oh, no. Oh, no. That really always worries me because he thinks people are driving to the stadium to see him. So you've got to be really careful about that. But I think Green Bay matches up with him. Green Bay can win on, they can pass protect, which is critical. I think when you play Green Bay,

Green Bay, that field really slows you down. You slip a lot on that grass field up there. And if you don't wear the right shoes, these guys don't want to wear the right shoes up there. They don't want to wear the 7-inch spikes. And I think if Love has time to throw, he'll make plays on this team. I mean, look, Indianapolis moved the ball opening day against them. There's teams that Minnesota moved the ball on them. I think when they play on the road, they're just slightly a different team. There's the Scott Novak factor that you worry about that could go against Houston too now. He can work both sides as well.

of anybody. But that's what worries me.

Do you think Arizona left some of the parkas and mittens for the Texans? Did they just leave them behind? It's not because he's bad. But when I saw, I mean, he had one of those hats on like it's wintertime. I mean, I couldn't believe it. Like, are you kidding me? It's like in Russia. I don't understand the Lions-Vikings line at all. And I feel like it's a trap. It's the Vikings are favored by one and a half. There's no Aaron Jones. It feels like a Hutchinson overreaction. I just think Detroit's better. Detroit beat them twice last year.

I don't understand it. I don't know why isn't this Lions minus three? I don't know why that is. I have no idea. I mean, I know Hutchinson's hurt, but to me, I think Minnesota, now it's hard to play there, but Detroit's won there. Detroit's so physical. Detroit ran the ball on them last year. So look, I think Detroit's a good team. I think this is a step up. Minnesota's not going undefeated. I hate to break the news to anybody. They're not going undefeated. If they're going to lose the game, this could be the one they lose.

Well, this will be the corniest thing I say to you on the pod, but you were for many football teams. So, you know, there's some truth to it. So they lose Hutchinson last week. Football teams, this Lions team seems super close.

And this feels like we won this for Hutchinson. This was for him. Game ball. Like the whole, I don't know. I think that injury really impacted them. And I think, I don't know. I just believe in that stuff sometimes. Well, their locker room's good. And look, you know, like they could trade for a Josh Uche. He's available. You know,

You know, they can put him in a role that Hutchinson, that's what I would do. I would find somebody like Uche, you know, somebody that's a, you know, a rusher that's maybe not a starter on a team that could come in and fill that role. I'm sure if Cleveland loses, they can get Smith from the outside rushers, Zedaria Smith, they can put him in that role. I mean, they're going to be able to fix this problem with somebody to come in and just play that specific role. Right.

they could get better doing that. I mean, we did that in New England. I mean, we got a team errors. We got a team Hicks. We got Castile, you know, you just feel players. They're not perfect, but they fit what you need and they, they can help you win situations.

Maybe they could get the guy committing the worst contract holdout since Le'Veon Bell, Hassan Reddick, just setting money on fire every week. Yeah, Woody said he gave him permission to trade. I'm like, who wants your problem, Woody? Like, seriously, who wants to take your, oh, I got it, Woody. I'm going to give you a draft pick to take your problem on. You already did that.

Hassan Reddick's like sliced alone in cliffhanger when he's burning the $100 bills to stay warm at night. It's like, whew, look at this fire from the $100 bills. That's why the agent fired him. I mean, the agents fired him. I was told that he was going in week one. I think the agents fully expected him to go in week one. And then the father got involved and that was it.

Detroit's offense, by the way, fourth pass, fourth run, third, third yards per play. Second, first down first scoring like their juggernaut. I think they win. Um, Steelers jets stay away or would you play this one?

I think I have no faith in playing Russell or Justin Fields in the game. I think they've turned it over. I don't have any faith in the Jets. I think it's a stay away. I think the first play will go to Devontae Adams. But, I mean, I think one thing I learned about Mike Tomlin, I mean, he's good in these close games. He loves them. They just live for him.

I have, we have Craig Horlbeck who works for us as a huge Steelers fan. And he's, his theory was that the Steelers are doing too well.

Tama needs the heat from a 500 record to stay alive, basically. So that's why they put that game two weeks ago. He needs to be somewhere where they're not doing too well, but they're also doing better than 500. Somewhere in there. He needs close games. He just needs to feel the energy and the rush of just being nervous. I mean, the guy loves... I mean, I think last week he was probably disappointed. Right. He's like, I thought this game was going to be closer. Yeah.

Ravens-Bucks, I was thinking about a Ravens-Moneyline play lowering the over-down. I don't understand how Tampa's going to stop the Ravens ever for three hours. I don't see a scenario where they...

come close. Yeah. And is Mike Evans going to play? I think that's the real question, right? I think that's the one we have to look at. If Evans, I mean, let me see it here. I think he's, you know, they've got a bunch of injuries. They've got a bunch of injuries on the team, but I don't see, I thought he was going to be out. But, you know, I think to me, that's the one thing that would worry me. Whereas Baltimore's really healthy. Tampa's these 26 on first down, 26 first downs and

Baltimore's first in everything. Look, they beat Detroit. Detroit would have walked down the field on them. They're going to struggle in this game. Baltimore's pesky enough to give Baker Mayfield some trouble. I would lean Baltimore here. The game I like, I like the Chargers versus the... That was my last one. Chargers minus one and a half in Arizona.

i don't know why the line's moving at one and a half you're getting a good number right now at westgate it's two and a half so you're getting a great number yeah that zonas d is 32nd on first downs 29th against the run 27 yard per pass they also fit your theory of the team that started out pretty well but it's getting worse every week yeah which is never a good sign when we get to week seven and their quarterback has you know if you know how to rush him

Like if you don't do what the Rams did against him, which is just run up the field and run past him, he looks like he's sensational. But if you keep them in the pocket like Cincinnati did, Cincinnati's not even a good team when they beat them. Like to me, Arizona, I mean, beating San Francisco was a miracle. It really took, it took everything had to go right. And they did, but it's hard to do that. Hey, you're old enough to remember the Spassky-Fisher chess matchup from the early seventies, right? I know you were into that.

In Finland, yeah. Is Mayo versus middle seat Doug? Is it bringing back memories of that for you in London? No, no. Can Mayo put his cap on right? Was like, is that cap? Like, it was bothering me the whole game. Have you seen Mayo talk to an assistant or a player during these games yet? No, no. Mayo just, he's programmed to blame Bill for everything. I, you know, he's like, he's just programmed. You know, even though we signed every single player back, right? Like, like, wait a minute. This is your team.

Uh, you know, listen, they couldn't, they were going to, whoever won the quarterback battle, whoever up from the other guy in training camp was going to get the job. Then five weeks later, Drake gets the job and they're like, yeah, we couldn't start them right away. Cause the office, but it's like, you're, you're directly contradicting what you said in the summer. This is why Belichick never said anything in press conferences. You can't win. Yeah. And then, and then their defense has gotten worse, Bill. They're not getting better. Yeah.

I mean, they were good opening day and they've gotten progressively worse. Nobody talks about because everybody's focused on the quarterback. But how about Polk? He comes out today. Romeo said he needs some mental help. Like Polk is like, what are you talking about? I'm fine mentally. I just, I need to, my hands are good. Like he came out and complained like to

To me, look, these guys are getting head coaching jobs because they're ex-players. We're not the NBA. It's a bigger enterprise than managing eight or seven players. It's a different world. It's a more complex game. It's chess on grass.

I'm not dismissing the NBA coaches because that's a hard job. But in the NBA, if you play in the NBA, you play offense and defense. So you know everything about the game. You know the game completely. In the NFL, if you play off, I mean, Mabel, he can pretend he knows offense. He doesn't know any techniques of what the line does. He doesn't know the receivers. He knows what the plays are. He doesn't know the fundamentals and techniques. He doesn't know the whole game. How could he? He's only been coaching five years.

So it's harder. It's a harder game to really know. And then a kicking game and then the front office and how you have to develop talent. That's a whole other element. So like but look, they've got Jonathan there to help handle it. And Robin Glazer to help handle it. We'll see. You know, I mean, and all they keep doing is they're so preoccupied with attacking Bill. Like the guy won six Super Bowls for you. At what point do you stop attacking the guy?

I can't tell you what a turn off it is as a guy who loves the Patriots. I don't understand why they're handling it this way. And then for Mayo to say how they asked if he'd heard from Belichick since he got the job and he said no. And people are like, whoa. And then Kraft says later, I knew Mayo was going to be our coach when we were in Israel seven years ago or whatever. It's like, yeah, everyone knew he was going to be the next head coach. And he was working around the staff.

They were having meetings during the season last year. Like Mayo was late for staff meetings because he would meet with Kraft. Everybody knew it. Like they knew it was all just, you know, it was all, it's a charade, but they can control the narrative because they have- Well, they're doing a bad job. I don't think they're controlling any narrative anymore. I think this is a catastrophe of a year for the Krafts. I really do. Starting with that documentary, how they handle Belichick's exit.

how the team they put together, the fact that they have 50 million in free agency money that they just never spent. And the team's the worst offensive line anyone's ever put out. They're the lowest spending team in the last 10 years. Nobody says a word about it. Like they've never, like the one thing about the Cleveland Browns, they've spent a lot of money. The crafts over the last 10 years are the least amount of spending money of anybody. It's documented. It's not fake news. I'm not making that up. It's real. Here's the other thing. You always talk about having a plan.

They knew they were taking May in the draft. They knew they were getting Daniels or May, right? They knew this the moment the season ended. And then it was about studying them, who's Wash going to take. But if it's May, we're taking him. How do you not have a plan for an offensive line or some sort of stability in front of him so you can actually play him? They go,

They go into, they go into the season and people are like, well, who are they going to sign? It's like, well, Washington went and got a couple of guys that they overpaid for a little bit, but Washington didn't have an offensive line either. They patched together something that was at least workable. They addressed it. I just don't understand how you have an asset like may, uh,

And then you bring them Alex Van Pelt and the worst offensive line possible. And just this hodgepodge of young receivers. And they're like, this is great. This would be a good year one for our guy. It's fucking stupid. It really is. And they had as much chance to do whatever they could do. And then they signed everybody back that Bill had. And they complained that Bill, you know, Kraft's talking about he gave him too much authority. Well, you just signed every one of the players he drafted back.

And so if you're complaining about what you gave them in the draft, then why did you sign all those guys back? By the way, you think Calvin Ridley was going to make a difference this year? We need people who can block. Exactly right. They had no left back. Ayuk? Ayuk was going to help?

They had no left tackle. They had no right tackle. They signed that kid from Pittsburgh and then he just quit on them. You know, and you're signing a lineman from Pittsburgh. I mean, shit, you're not in any good shape. I mean, that's the problem. The guy they signed up the practice squad two weeks ago started center last week. They said he had like the best game anyone's had on the offensive line this year. They found him in the scrap heap. So to me, to me, they're so preoccupied with taking credit.

for what happened in the past that they're not worried about their future. Like, let it go. Like, it's really kind of disappointing that the guy can win as much as he won and you have this much anger towards him. It's like he stole, like, did he steal $12 billion from you? Your franchise just went from, you paid $240 million, now it's worth $8 billion, $9 billion? I mean, really? Do you think that was only because you built Patriot Place? I mean, what do you think it was? We learned from the documentary that if it wasn't for Kraft...

to navigate the Brady-Belichick relationship, the thing would have fallen apart 10 years earlier. Right, but here's the funny thing. Now we're finding out that now that Brady is the part owner of the Raiders, he wants to hire Belichick. I don't know if that's true or not, but now we're finding that out. Like, so what's true? Like, right, so is Robert gonna come to the Oakland and navigate that, the relationship too? I mean, I don't know. I'm asking. The issue with Brady and Belichick was Alex Guerrero. Like, that was it.

It's like, you can say whatever you want, but it was fundamentally, he, he wanted special treatment for his guy that could come in and treat him differently. And he was pulling other teammates into it. And Belichick, whether he was right or wrong, Belichick felt like this isn't the kind of team I want to have where one guy gets treated differently. We've never operated that way. And they never saw eye to eye on it. Kraft had nothing to do with it.

Nothing at all. That's exactly what happened. That was the only sticking point of the whole thing. Yeah. They were together 20 years. They went six balls to make nine. It split the team. And he believed in stretching and all that. And Bill wanted teams to do squats and all these lifts. And it's like Gronk came back and he was doing the Alex program. He had no lower body strength. They had to get him back in shape.

So, I mean, there was a conflict of that. And so Tom wasn't the head coach, but he had his guy, but he was trying to bring other people into it. You know, they got it. I never really saw this hostile relationship that's being portrayed that had to be patched together. And the fact is, look, if Kraft wanted to sign him, he could have signed him. I mean, if he said, Bill, I'm signing, I'm giving Brady 40 million. You're just going to have to deal with it. Like, that's just a cop out to blame somebody. Totally agree. Do you think?

Do you agree with my theory that Brady would come back if one of the quarterbacks on either Detroit or San Francisco or Kansas City got hurt? I think he can't now because he's an owner and he'd have to go through the waiver wire. And he just there's no way I think it's over. I think this is officially over with. He can't be high. So him being the part time owner has officially closed the door, closed the door completely.

You know, he can't be Hyman dying from the same heart attack over and over again. This is it. He's done. So I think that's it. The interesting thing is how much influence he's going to have in Las Vegas because he should have some. I would love to watch him. I would love to stand next to him at the first practice watching Antonio Pierce lead the Raiders and seeing that program. I mean, he's going to be like, oh, my God. I mean, you know, I just signed up for this.

That would be a way better use of TV time with him than having him announce games. Just his face during a two-hour Antonio Pierce practice. Antonio, so tell me, what are you thinking about doing in the game? I mean, I would love that conversation. Oh, my God. All right. Philadelphia 76ers. Over 50 and a half wins. And House and Rosillo and I all went under. Rosillo did a little monologue about...

He's just done with this whole narrative around the team. They did a great job putting it back together, but he just can't take it anymore. It was pretty funny. You reached that point two years ago. Yeah, I mean, I think to me, what was proven this summer in the Olympics was I don't care what you put around the guy, it's hard to play with the guy.

I think that was proven. So you can say, look, I think the guy's enormously talented. I'm not going to deny that. But he has none of the qualities that great players have that win championships. And nobody's going to argue that with me or tell me anything different. The fact that he openly comes out and says, I'm not playing back to back. See, this whole idea that we just want to get to April healthy, that's been their whole program ever since. It's like they're saying shit that they've been saying for four years. It's just never worked. Here's the thing. Iron, iron, iron.

Iron on iron makes you stronger. So the more you play, the stronger you become. It's not the other way. It's not the less you play, the stronger you become. And so like this, he's going to get hurt in April. I mean, Rosillo is right. I'm going to listen to it. I haven't yet, but he's right to not believe anything they say. And they have this older team now and

And they've built everything around a guy who can't stay healthy. It's just fact. I mean, look, I don't care. Finally, he announced he lost 20 pounds. I mean, it's nine years too freaking late. So on the one hand, going glass half full, he at least realizes I need to be better in shape. I need to put less weight on my knees. The playoffs are what really matters. That's the glass half full version of this. These are all realizations we had been asking for for a few years from now.

But Danny Green, I had him on my show and Danny Green said it's not so much that he's not in shape to start the season, it's keeping him in shape because he doesn't practice.

because he doesn't play in all the games, you know, and I doubt if he's working on the elliptical or in an eye altitude room where he could stay in shape because he's pedaling a bike and 6,000 feet, like, you know, the tour de France. So he can keep his breathing up. I don't think he's doing that. I think he just doesn't play and he keeps getting out of shape. And when he comes back, he he's exhausted. Yeah. I thought he seemed really slow to the ball.

protecting the boards again in that Knicks series and in the Olympics where it just felt like everybody on the other team on every offensive rebound was getting to the ball before he was, which is usually a sign you're starting to hit a different point of your career as a center, but he's still putting up massive stats. So I don't, I don't know what to think with him, but if he's going to not play back to back, he's always going to put up massive stats. But he's like, to me, it's like, you've got to evaluate him against the level of confidence.

Yeah. Like he bullies people around and puts up these incredible games. But at the end of the day, you have to ask yourself, does he help the team win? Does he make the players around them better? That's what a true great player does. He makes the players around them better. You know, so you can convince yourself Michael Jordan made Scotty Williams a better player. So the Sixers gave him money and thinking he was a good player when he stopped.

That's the great player does for other players, right? He doesn't do that. I mean, what player leaves Philly that gets a massive contract? Has Embiid made him a better player? He even found one. So you're already out.

Oh, I would bet that under tomorrow. To me, I wouldn't even have to think about it. Because, you know, I do a radio show here in Philly and Spike Eskin, who's a huge process guy. And he's like, you're just a hater. No, I'm not a hater. I'm a realist. I know where this movie is going to end up. I've seen it for nine years. And it's organizationally problem. They just there's no work ethic within the building.

Maxie has it because Maxie's a unique guy. I mean, Paul George is already hurt. Look, I think Darryl Morey deserves a ton of credit for revamping the team. I don't think there's any doubt about that. But where I think he's wrong and flawed is he's building around a team that's going to crumble because the guy he's building around will crumble.

We will see. You know, I agree. But who knows? Basketball could surprise us from time to time. I feel like durability is a pretty good indicator with the title. We've really only seen Kawhi in Toronto that one year when he miraculously stayed healthy. And now he's out indefinitely. And they just built this new arena and he's out indefinitely. Look, here's the reality. Past performance predicts future achievement. That's the reality. And that's what we're dealing with. Past performance predicts future achievement. And the past performance is he doesn't have one.

What's your Super Bowl pick right now? Revised? Week seven? I would say, I think it's Detroit versus Baltimore. How's that? Okay. I think they're the two best teams. I have Detroit and Kansas City. There you go. I mean, that's basically chalk, but I can't move off that unless Baltimore fixed their defense. Yeah. We'll see. All right. Mike Lombardi, you can listen to him on the GM Shuffle. He's all over the place. You've probably seen him. Plus, you have promote the Belichick pod.

Well, that's Coach Pod. So you can get that. That's a podcast. And it's also on the YouTube, on the Coach YouTube channel. So we do that every Monday. We do the podcast with Matt, Patricia and Coach. And then on Tuesday, we take the Coach Show where we kind of look at college players. This week, we looked at all the players in Alabama and Georgia. And then we talked about the National Football League, about what's going on and all that. So, yeah, it's really been a lot of fun to do that up there. And we do it in NFL Films, which is great.

So, Sopranos, what character is Matt Patricia on that show? That's the third guy. Is he like a Silvio? No, no, I think, well, there's a role, there's a little bit of Silvio in that. I think he's probably more like... Bobby Bacala?

No, he's more like the guy who was advising Phil Leotardo that ended up. Yeah, he's more that guy. He says, look, I agree in spirit, but I have to counsel. I think he's that guy. I forget his name. It's not Butchie. Oh, but I know you're talking about. Yeah. Phil Leotardo's conciliary.

Yeah, he's that guy where Butchie was just, Butchie was born. But, you know, I agree in spirit, but I have to counsel. He has one of the great lines in it too, when he says to some guy, some guy says to him, he says, that Bobby Bacala, he's the number three guy. And he says, yeah, you know, three years ago, you were selling fucking laser printers on the back of your crown, Nick, that guy.

Do you think Carmella should have dated more? I mean, she really only had one dalliance and then she's like, ah, I guess I'm back with Tony. Oh God. Maybe she needed internet dating back then. She needed to go at least on one Tinder date or something. Can you imagine she's going to the paint shop to find her date? I mean, seriously, the guy with the bad hair piece. I mean, come on, come on. I don't think she'd be better than that. And then she was some professor. I mean, you gotta do better than that.

I told the guy who runs HBO, I was like, it's way too hard to find The Sopranos. It should be, I don't care if it came out 20 years ago, it should be the first thing in the top left when I go to HBO before Penguin, all the shows. Have you been watching Penguin? I heard it's good.

It's really good. Yeah, it's really good. I've watched four episodes. It's good. It's really, you never know. I mean, they've changed. I forget the name of the guy who stars in it, but Colin Farrell. That's right. But they even never recognize them, but it's really good. It's, it's, it's, it's a little dark in the sense of this lighting at all, but it's really good. Michael Barty. Great to see you. Great. Thank you, Bill.

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All right. Last but not least the million dollar picks for week seven last week. I don't know how we didn't go five and one. I don't understand it. We ended up losing 19 K we're down for 17 for the season had had like weirdly bad luck, but I feel like we're circling around the right results. I didn't feel bad about any pick, even giants Bengals Sunday night. Um, I feel like we're

A big week's coming. Maybe it's this week. We're going seven games this week. We talked about a bunch of them with Mike Lombardi already. The first one, Eagles minus three against the Giants. Giants lost their left tackle. They lost one of their best pass rushers. Best two wide receivers banged up. And the Eagles, here's the thing.

If they don't win this game, changes galore will happen. This is weirdly a must win. Just take care of business against the Giants. Eagles minus three, throwing the ball. I just, this is a talent disparity game. So we're taking the Eagles. Packers minus two and a half at home against the Texans. The Packers have been home two weeks in a row. No Nico Collins for the Texans.

I think this is the week that we start regarding the Packers as a real contender. I think this is a breakout week for them. So Packers minus two and a half. We're grabbing that lions.

At Minnesota, plus 110 for the Lions just to win. I don't care about the Lions, plus one and a half. I don't understand the line. I don't understand why this isn't Lions minus three. I know Hutchinson got hurt. I also think there's some let's win this for Hutchinson potential. But the Lions offense is the best offense in the league. They won in Minnesota twice last year. I think the line should be Lions minus three. So I'm grabbing the Lions plus 110. Money line. And by the way, the Vikings have to lose at some point this season. So

There's three Seahawks at Atlanta. Seahawks are plus three. I think they either push this or they, or they went out right because you can Atlanta's defense stinks and Atlanta easily could have two less, less wins in Seattle can throw the ball. The Kenneth Walker's healthier. I just think this is a must win for them to be three and four with a really tough schedule ahead.

And I like the spot for them. I think they're gonna be able to move the ball down the field. By the way, Gino has, has basically been a fantasy monster this year. I think he has the most past attempts by far. Gino's winging the ball around this year. So we're going to ride Gino in Atlanta Seahawks plus three, the chargers.

who I'm buying as a stealth playoff team, how the hell is this team 10 and seven? They are laying one and a half points in Arizona, a team that seems like they're just getting worse, um,

Every week and then every month they play well once and then they're worse again. I just like the spot for the Chargers. Well-coached team. I love their defense. I think you can make a case they might be in the running for best defense in the AFC. Chargers minus one and a half. This game will be minus three by game time. So grab the minus one and a half now. And then the last two. So Chiefs plus one and a half.

against the 49ers. And everyone's going to tease this. Everyone's going to go nuts in all these different ways. And you know what? Mahomes is 11-1-1 as an underdog. I trust the infrastructure. I trust the defense.

If I lose with my homes as an underdog, so be it. Brady used to be in this spot once upon a time. 49ers have injuries everywhere. We don't know when McCaffrey's coming back. As much as I like Brock Purdy, I think the Chiefs defense can handle this game and my homes will do just enough. They'll be able to move the ball just enough. This just Andy Reed coming off a bye week. I get

A million different reasons why this looks too obvious on paper and why this seems like it's a trick line. I can't resist. Chiefs plus one and a half. And then the last one, you know, sometimes on Fando, you can move stuff around and have a little alternate spreads. The Ravens are minus two and a half, minus three and a half in Tampa. I'm going to nudge that down to minus two and a half.

I'm going to nudge the over on FanDuel down to 39 and a half as a parlay. So Ravens minus two and a half. The game will have at least 40 points, which by the way, it will because both these offenses are going down in the field. And if you do that, that's minus 105 on FanDuel. That's my featured bet for the week. And then if you want to get nuts with the London game, I'm not making this an official million dollar pick.

But I do think the Pats are going to be able to move the ball against middle seat Doug and the Jags. And I was looking at Pats adjusted plus 10 and a half parlayed with the over of 40 and a half. That's plus 143 on FanDuel. I might do that when I wake up on Sunday morning just for the hell of it. But I think with Drake May, I think the Pats are going to have explosive plays. I am not going to have turnovers, which is also good for the over, but

I have a feeling they're going to hang around in this Jags game and that this is going to be it for Doug Peterson. So speaking of Pat's Jags, FanDuel has an anytime touchdown score prop, 30% profit boost on that if you put that in. Hunter Henry scored last week with Drake May. He is plus 330 against middle seat Doug in London and the Jaguars. And I really like that one because I think there's going to be a little Drake May, Hunter Henry bromance.

I foresee some Drake May production in both ways. Touchdowns, maybe a pick, uh, just be ready for a lot of, uh, Drake May variants, but I think Hunter Henry will be the beneficiary of at least some of it. So there you go. Hunter Henry plus three 30 anytime touchdown. Those are the million dollar picks for week seven. And if you missed the big NBA over under podcast that me and Rosillo and Joe house did, um,

Here's what we did. I'm just going to recap it for you one more time. Oklahoma city over under was 57 and a half. All three of us went over on that house went under as a lock on Denver under 50 and a half. We're still a went under a new Orleans under 45 and a half Houston,

Over 42 and a half. Russillo and House both went over. San Antonio under 35 and a half. House and I went under on that. All three of us love Phoenix over 47 and a half, which is apparently the most popular future of the year. I'm not scared by that. Clippers under 37 and a half. I jumped on that as a lock.

And now it was announced that Kawhi's out at least for opening night and probably a few weeks after that. So sad to hear that news. But on the other hand, that was one of the reasons I picked the under because I didn't think he was going to be playing. Cleveland over 48 and a half. Joe House and I jumped on that.

Toronto under 29 and a half. Not only did Brasilla take the under as a lock, he said some disparaging things about Toronto's planning that we wholeheartedly agreed with. Orlando over under 47 and a half. I went over, Brasilla went over. Atlanta over under 36 and a half. I went over, House went over. And then last but not least, I was alone on this. I couldn't believe it. Washington under 20 and a half.

Just me going under on that, feeling great about it. So we did really great the last two years on those. The last two years, I went 12-2, House went 7-4, and Rousselin went 9-2. I'm 18-4 on the locks for the last three years. So we'll see how they do. You can find all of them on FanDuel, and we're going to be doing a very special, a bunch of bets that you can find when you go on FanDuel, including the Super Boost, which I mentioned at the top, which is going to be OKC, 55-plus wins,

Cleveland, 45 plus wins. Phoenix, 45 plus wins. All three of those to hit, which is around plus 190. They're going to boost that up past plus 250. We've won that three years in a row. And this year we're going for number four. So you can follow that. Go check out Fando. They have all this stuff. Thanks, Cobb Crane for producing. Thanks to Steve Cerruti for producing. Thanks to Mike Lombardi. And I will see you on Sunday with Cousin Sal. Enjoy the weekend. I want to sit there on a way to sunset

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