NBA Over/Unders, Part 3: The Atlantic and Southeast With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Tatum, Brunson, Embiid, Paolo, and Jimmy Butler
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We have a Ringer Movies YouTube channel that has all the rewatchables podcasts as well as the big picture. And we have a Bill Simmons YouTube channel where you can watch all the episodes of this podcast that we filmed in a nice, fun studio that's decorated in a very strange way, but at least has enough light so all three of us can see each other. And this was part three. This is when we usually get a little groggy, a little punchy. This is the...

and the Southeast are our last two that we're doing. So if you missed the first two, go check them out. Here we go. One more time. Pearl Jam. All right. It's part three of the annual over-unders podcast. We're still in house. We're still here. We are over the three hour mark.

Nobody's gotten in major trouble or gotten fired or started an international incident yet. I'm feeling really good. We're doing the Atlantic division as our second to last one. And that is led by the Boston Celtics, who won the NBA title last year, who went 64 and 18. They're over under as 58 and a half wins. They're minus 135 for the division, plus 320 for the title, plus 120 to be the one seed, which I would encourage as a bet.

Russillo, how is this team six wins worse? Yeah, they even played below their expected by like a couple. Um...

I don't really know. I don't. Maybe the Al Horford year finally happens where he falls apart. Maybe there's a Jalen Brown post-Olympic push of like, I'm the man and it gets in the way of something maybe. A little me, me, me action? Yeah. But I mean, you're asking me and I'm not saying these are going to happen, but I'm trying to figure out how it's. Porzingis gets pushed back to February instead of December. Then it's 56 wins. You know, I don't, it's an over for me.

Yeah, and it's a tiny under for me because 58 wins is not disrespectful. And the way that they're six games worse is what Mr. Rosillo just laid out. I also think an element to this that's fair to contemplate is Tatum's a little tired, right? Just played the most basketball, competitive basketball he's ever played in his life.

Not in the Olympics. Except for not in the Olympics, right. But he was there. He was feeling great. There. He had to be there. He did practice and all that. He didn't get the game minutes, but that's the thesis for it. And really... Or that he can't shoot anymore? No, he fixed that. Because what you're asking for... He's fine. Okay.

with Horford as we go on, you know, fix the hitch. You go from Horford. Is it, isn't it? Xavier Tillman and Cornette. If, if, if that's, listen, Tillman, they have high hopes for Tillman. Honestly, like that's all Denver would kill for Tillman. Yeah, they would. That's not even a joke. You're right. I'm serious. Yeah. So, uh, I don't know how he fit with Jokic, but anyway, um, I was looking at the under all off season because of the Tatum Olympic stuff. The,

The possible disease of more, which you always have to think about with every title team. The sale, I think, is a real thing for the organization. And just as just an X factor, it makes me nervous. Do you think the players care about that? I don't think the players care about it, but I think it brings an instability to

to the whole atmosphere when you know what you have, you don't know what you're getting, right? And some new guy comes in in January and it's like, here are my ideas. I don't know. It just makes me nervous. Right. What did I say? And then the Al Horford year. I think, you know, we keep saying it's not going to happen, but at some point it's going to happen. I think they figured out. So the reason I went over

is because their infrastructure is so solid with the durability of their best players, right? Tatum and Brown. They're going to be able to spot Horford and White. They have this crazy bench, but I just think they know who they are. This is like, we're bombing threes. We're built around these two really special wing guys. We are above average at literally every single defensive position. We are high above average as three-point shooters. And

I just think the infrastructure that they have built, at least for this season, is going to be intact. So to me, it's a 60-win team.

I don't really have a rebuttal to that. Like the only other sort of aspect to this is a little bit of injury, bad luck maybe because if Holiday goes out for any bit of time. Holiday's 35. Warford's 38. Porzingis, we don't know. Again, I love the Boston Celtics. I think they're tremendous. No, I think you're right to be hesitant. Because 57 is not, oh, this is so disappointing. Yeah, right. That's all. I got it. But I just think that there's a gap when everything's right in the East.

I don't know why anybody would refute that. And the two most important guys, maybe the three most important guys are that durable if you put White in the conversation. The durability is nuts and really unusual. And it's the reason that we liked OKC too. And you have younger guys who...

Just play all the time. I like that for the over. Do you factor in anything? Like the Knicks and Sixers games are going to be high effing wattage. Like they're going to get the national, you know, those are going to be. I think they can get up for Andre Drummond. So good. And they've played Uber before. Yeah. Yeah, they have. That's a great point. They know Yabusele's game. They brought him in. Yeah, they know Yabu.

I want to say one other thing about this, too. The Missoula thing, the Missoula arc, has been one of the most unusual arcs as a sports fan that I've ever had, where they take this guy. My dad called him Second Row Joe. I thought he was completely overmatched and overwhelmed. And then over the second year, I thought he did a really good job, especially in the playoffs. And now the offseason stuff,

The leadership that he has behind the scenes, like the way those guys look up for him, the way he looks out for them. You know, he flew to France when Tatum was in a funk during the Olympics. I think all he cares about is winning titles and having this team be awesome. He's like actually kind of a psycho in a good way. And I think, I just think he knows how to push their buttons. I think he's a very unusual coach in this day and age where he's young enough that he can fit in with the players, but kind of an older soul.

Where, yeah, I'm around your age, but, and I don't know. I just think they listen to him. I think he might have a chance to be a really special coach, which if you had shown a clip of me talking about this 18 months ago, I would have been like, I am being drugged and I'm in Bulgaria with a gun pointed at me from 10 feet away. But I think he has a chance to be a special coach. Do you think I'm crazy on that? Well, I just know that if the results were different, I don't think you would be saying anything you just said.

Well, true. I am a results guy. Well, which results? I was a historically dominant run through the playoffs. Yeah, I just think if they had come up short with this offense that at times in regular season was sort of frustrating for a team that had this profile, you would... I don't know, man. There's a lot of non-easy things to coach with this team, though, that I thought he navigated last year. Tatum was really strange offensively in the playoffs. He could not get it going, right? And I think...

There was a world where, but I think he was the focal point of what everybody was doing that Tatum, I thought Tatum had better games as it went a lot. Yeah. Gave him credit for like his, his overall numbers are not going to show like he was running their offense and then playing center on defense and

So I I'm with you on the Missoula creativity part of it. And the fact that it's Brad, that it's this ownership, that it's the different people that you've met over the years that work for the team. This is a very smart organization. So there was no way they're going to hand the keys to somebody that was like, oh, he's sort of quirky and younger. So like that's because there was a lot of teams just hiring the cool younger assistant. Right. And then once they made him the head coach, you would hear like, oh,

Like he's, he's just, I mean, it's not even an insult to say somebody might not be ready with that background from it, but I just, you know, everybody's going to say we're homers for it, but we know some of these people. Yeah. And I've also, I was pretty critical of him the last couple of years. I, I do think. I just think post email, they weren't going to go like, let's just do something stupid now. Right. But I do wonder with the league.

I think it's the hardest it's ever been to coach in the NBA, right? These guys, especially as the money keeps going up for the players and as the swipe right generation has just come in where it's like, I was unhappy this year. I'd like to be traded now, or I'd like to sign. And people are just jumping around. Look at Paul George. Four or five years of, you know, didn't go great in the Clippers, but it went pretty well. Like they made a conference finals, like they were relevant. And

And he's just like, I'm out. They wouldn't give me a fourth year. Now I'm going to go to this new team. I can't blame him for it. I don't blame him. He took the extra year. It's a rational economic actor, but guys jump around more than ever. And I think it's really hard to coach and it's hard to navigate the social media era and the way to do it.

which I think he stumbled into in a really smart way. It's just, he really has real relationships with these dudes and they trust him. And he uses like game 52 of some random season to be like, I'm going to play Peyton Pritchard 38 minutes tonight and he's going to fucking cook. And I'm going to build his confidence up. Like he's smart. The way they approach a regular season is the model for, I think how a lot of teams are going to do this now where they're like, we want this 12 man roster.

We're going to give guys nights off and then our ninth or 10th guy is going to jump in and we're going to fucking let this guy cook and tell him we believe in him. I don't know. I think it's a really hard, I don't think it's ever been harder to be an NBA coach except for maybe the cocaine era when you're like, where's Mike Array? I don't know. He mispracticed again. Oh man. Oh God. I think there's more of a disconnect now. I mean, it just makes more sense that like, I don't,

You want to create something where people feel like they would have a responsibility. And now I think it's just, let me try to get the contract and then I'll go wherever I want anyway. So this is a fun conversation. You can do it over. You guys do it over the course of the season. But, um, you know, the, the nature of professional basketball now is very different than, than how it was seven years ago, 14 years ago. So, um,

I think that's, you know, an important element of what you're observing here. How do you tell all 12 of these guys that this is going to be fine? And they all believe it. Well, and also what kind of guys are you putting on your team that are going to buy into that, right? Like Brissette is somebody I think that was a really popular teammate last year, right? He was really, really close, a big part behind the scenes of the team. But

He just wasn't a good enough shooter, right? So now that's like, we're going to get Lonnie Walker because we want everybody on this team to be able to shoot. Everyone on this team knows what the agenda of the team is. We want to defend. We want to shoot threes. We want to be able to slash and kick. I just, I've been really impressed. I've been impressed by the off season because I am on disease of more watch every time a team wins a title. It's like, what can go wrong? You know, the Jalen Jason thing, um,

Um, they have navigated that about as well as it could possibly be navigated. There's so many different situations over the last few years when those guys could have turned on each other, gotten pissy about it. I thought there was a selflessness with them that you need that I want to talk about with a team coming up after this next team. Um, so over for me, over for Rosillo, under for house Knicks, 53 and a half.

Plus 230 for the division. Plus 370 for the conference. 60 plus wins, House. Plus 325. Last year, they were 50 and 32. Now they are plus 750 for the title. They added Carl Anthony Towns, Mikael Bridges, and Campaign, the new big three. And Dadier and Tyler Kolek. I mean... They lost Julius Randle and Dante DiFincenzo. Their starting lineup is Towns, Ananobi, Hart, Bridges, and Brunson.

It's where we get to the bench that I get a little nervous for Silla McBride, precious Mitchell Robinson, who plays half the season pain. I've seen him sham it. Jericho Sims, Kolek. This is a team built around four guys, basically plus heart. Two of those four guys just miss a lot of games, Townsend and Obi. And that's my fear with the over under I'm a slight under.

Well, you know, their injury history with the two guys, I mean, OG's just now that he has a contract, I wonder how... Take a week off here. I'm going over. I think they're the second best team in the East. You know, some of the stats over from last year, it's not going to be the same because they're not going to have the same defensive numbers with the two-headed monster of Mitchell and Hartenstein. So...

I just love the way the pieces fit together. And the cat need was so significant. And it's really funny, too. You think of all the years of rumors of how the Knicks had staffed. Like, they're going to get the Louisville guys. They're going to get the Kentucky guys. Because this guy recruited Donovan Mitchell. And this guy knows Booker. And then this guy knows Tad. It's like it finally happened after years of it never happening. And I think Towns, who, again, not my favorite.

We're a little worried about the New York part of it. A little? He's accepted a demotion already with what was his franchise, and now he's going to somebody else's franchise. So if it's a lot of like, hey, space the floor, hit

hit 40% of three, but you're not going to be asked to be bailing us out a ton of possessions because you already have Brunson. Bridges, who when he first got traded to Brooklyn, showed us a version of his offense that I wasn't even sure he could sustain, and then Cam Thomas fucked it all up. And OG, his shooting numbers, especially from the corner and stuff, is really, really good. He'll have some moments, even though I still think there's some creative limitations with him, but

There's a really nice complement of pieces here where I like it, and Brunson is a superstar. I mean, Brunson took it to a level that it's almost like he's Mini Luca. He understands the angles. He understands the footwork. Even when you think you've got him, you don't have him. And that Sixers series is one of my favorite series of the last few years because of just the intensity of the whole thing. So, like, look, great coach, some pieces. Sure, the injury stuff, I got it, Mitchell, the TBD, but...

Man, I like how even with DiVincenzo moving on, I'm not sure if they had the minutes in this new rotation with Bridges being there and Hart and OG. For him to be happy. Yeah, he might have been miserable in this situation. So that's somebody who doesn't like Kat saying, I think the Knicks. And I also think that their wing defender options are better than Philly, better than Cleveland, certainly. Better than the Pacers are terrible defensively when you start talking about matching up with Boston.

That was your longest monologue of the three parts. I don't know why. You were passionate about the Knicks. No, listen. They're super fun. They are the second best team to me. They're super fun. That Sixers series was so much fun. Yeah. Do you have over or under? Under, because I think they're going to go 53 and 29. And I think they're going to go 53 and 29 because I think that both...

OG and Kat are going to miss time. And they have nothing. Nothing. I think it's going to take some time for them to reclaim the interior defense identity that really propelled them down the stretch. It's a great point. He was...

But Hartenstein can, it can't be overstated how impactful he was both to like the identity of the team, but like the function, the offensive rebounding, the interior, like he's so goddamn smart. It's why, I mean, we're going to have to, I'm going to bet a bunch of Oklahoma city, like,

60 wins, 65 wins. I'm going to be in all that because of how smart that dude is. And I just think it'll take, Tibbs is fucking killer. They're going to be fine. So 53 and 29 is not disrespectful. I don't think New York fans, I don't think 53 and 29 is disrespectful. It's just a tiny under for me because of the injury risk. I think I'm mix of both of you guys.

Because I really like this Knicks team. I like them more as a playoff team than a regular season team. Yeah, I think maybe that's leaking into my thing a little too. Me too. Totally agree with that. Me going under on this team...

says nothing about my fear for them in the playoffs because I think they're going to be super dangerous. I just, when you're talking about Ananobi and Towns just having a pretty established history now, missing games, and I don't think this team has a lot of room for error in the regular season. The playoffs, it's not going to matter. Precious, McBride, Ariel Huckporty.

I think this is the Celtics' biggest threat in the East. Totally agree. We're all on the same page. Cleveland is going to maybe be a better regular season team, but this is the team. They're built a lot like Minnesota last year. They're put together to try to beat the Celtics team. And they're going to have the best chance at it because they're going to be able to defend the two guys. Towns is weird. Hard guy to play against. Kind of mirror him and your poor Zingas. And...

And we'll see if Brunson can do it again. Because that was a lot of miles they put on him last year. I always worry about these smaller players just with these gigantic usage rates. You know, that's just a lot different when you're six feet just banging into these big bodies for eight months. He's a tough SOB. Yeah. I like...

I I'm under, but I, to me, the conference plus three 70 is probably a little more interesting or the title plus. I would write, if I was playing Nick's odds, I would probably play the future odds. I think they just have to beat the Celtics. Yeah. I bet them to win the division and I got a better price than the plus two 30. I mean, all these numbers are inflated because everybody in New York loves his team also, especially after cat, like the over is minus one 18. Like they're steaming the over at 53 and a half. Um, the bridges piece is going to be interesting though, because I,

If you're a casual basketball fan, you could go to a Knicks game and Bridges will have like six points and two rebounds and do a lot of subtle stuff that you're like, wait, I thought we traded five first round picks for this guy. What does this guy do? And it's like, we all know how good he is. Yeah. When he did that, I was so impressed with his shot making off the dribble all on his own for that stretch with Brooklyn two years ago that

I think he just kind of was like, all right, Cam, if you just want to take a million shots, like I'm over it. I'll be over here. I'm over it. This whole team stinks anyway. Yeah, I don't want to get hurt. So I don't, you know, it's not about, there's going to be nights where it's a bunch of, it's the option of like,

It's probably the three guys. But, like, if Bridges gets 30 instead of Brunson, it's not surprising. When Cat gets 30 instead of Brunson, it's not going to be surprising. OG's good for a couple blow-up games, you know, every few weeks. Right. And then Hart just dials it up. So, it's a nice team. Playoff-wise, totally, we're all in line. One other thing with them, because I really do think they're going to miss Steve Vincenzo. Like, I don't think that's a hot take. I just didn't know where the minutes were going to be for him. Yeah, and I think...

But maybe he would have played crunch time over hard. It just, he gave them more options. But I do wonder February, could they find somebody in the market? And you, we go through this every year when we do the February pods and we're like, oh, it seems like so good on paper to get a buyout guy. And then who are the buyout guys that have actually been made a difference? It's pretty rare. But if you're a buyout guy and you want to win a title and you get to go to New York

And if you're like a, you know, a swing who can shoot threes, this would be the team you'd want to go to because you play. You play 15, 20 minutes and maybe have some big moments. All right. Philadelphia over under 50 and a half division plus three 80 conference five to one title, 10 to one best record, 12 to one, one seed, six to one. They were 47 and 35 last year. They had a Paul George and a bunch of new guys, Gordon Yabusele,

Andre Drummond's back. My guy McCain. Caleb Martin's on the team now. KJ Martin. KJ Martin. Oh, I always kind of like. I'll let you have the floor, Priscilla. I think what Daryl Morey and this front office did was incredible. Although, if we want to go, let's give front offices credit. If you go through the timeline of what the Knicks did in such a short amount of time of who they were and who they are now, that is also incredible. But if you want to start talking about like,

The false hope of cap space and the number of fan bases around the country that were like, remember when we were getting cap space? Right. Remember we thought we almost got Durant that one year? And then it didn't happen. They did it. They threaded the thinnest of needles. And then because of the excitement around that, you know, they added all these other pieces. You know, some of it, I think, you know, the Yaviselli part of it was like he was so good in the Olympics. And then everybody's like really excited about it.

it um but they had a plan they had the two guys under contract they delayed the maxi thing like it worked it worked in a way that every other team seems to hope it would and it rarely ever works this way having said that i'm totally over them um i'm mb is not like in a westbrook thing for me but he's starting to head there a little and that's that's that hurts me because i've always really liked mb like when i would get into westbrook arguments with people like you know

what are you, 12? And Meade's quotes the last couple years, like, I still think the people closest to him keep telling him, like, how everybody's, like, wronging him or anything, and

I'll admit, too, this is like way too much and this is wrong. But to see him foul hunting in the Olympics games, like the first few possessions he got in and then not get them. You just at home, you're like, are you fucking serious, dude? Are you seriously foul baiting this? Like, get out there and play basketball. And, you know, it's not just the injury part. And if you can't see it, it's going to sound arrogant. I can't help you.

But the possessions where he wanted nothing to do with the ball against the Knicks...

In that first round series, it was haunting. It reminded me of the other guys where when I see it, I go, oh no. And sometimes it's younger players and they get through that. Shea Gildress Alexander in that Houston OKC matchup didn't look super comfortable. Hey, he was first run through it. Doesn't matter. Now we're talking MVPs for the guy. And Bede is too old and too established. And look, extremely talented. He's awesome. He can do all that. I might have been voting for him for MVP again, but I'm really sick of all of the stuff around it. And...

I just think he'll probably get hurt again. It's tough when they do this whole, we're going to take it easy with Embiid this year during the regular season because it's about titles now. How about the third round? When I hear that, I'm just like, oh man, I don't know if they get it. First of all, don't say that out loud. Second, why was there noise about titles?

What was in my titles last year and two years ago? And by the way, your teams were pretty good the last couple of years. These have been good teams. He's like, now I'm in, I've got a much better shape this year, which is what we've wanted from him forever. I want to let him be. He seems like a great guy, but I, there's, I don't know if it's the people around him or what's going on, but I think it's the people around him. Sometimes it doesn't seem like he gets it.

No, the Duncan thing we'd even brought up because anybody that loves the game goes, this is what one of the smartest things that Duncan ever did. I'm going to have to see some blood work before I'm ready to sign off on like, Hey, he just mirrored what Duncan did. Yeah. Let's see. Can we have a couple of weeks? How's, where are you standing? Oh, this is the hardest team, uh, by a long shot for me. Um, because I, uh,

absolutely echo what Mr. Rosillo, you know, observed. I mean, they talk about like here where they are, they're 34 and 33 in playoff games since this whole thing has been reinvented. Sorry. No, no, I appreciate it. And Embiid's played 433 games in 10 years. He's 30 years old. He's never made the Eastern Conference Finals. He's won five playoff series and he's missing the preseason and now saying he's not going to play back to backs. It doesn't effing matter. Just...

be healthy in April. Show up with 10. I know. I know. So what do you do with this win total? Because all of the pieces that they added, I thought were like really good, smart, you know, additive pieces. Pieces that are going to help you win playoff games. Like, you know, is Caleb Martin going to help them on a Thursday night against, I don't know, the Pelicans? So,

If we think, like, let's go best case scenario games played for Embiid and Paul George. The total number combined of those two? You can even go separate. 60-60. Like 60, right? If you said 60 and a half. Paul George is earning for today. Yeah, Paul George has a knee bruise, which is fucking secretly brutal. Um,

And Embiid is, we don't even know if he's going to play an opening night. By the way, I would be totally done with this team while also complimenting the strategy of finding anyone. Like, if it weren't for Maxie. Maxie's the piece that actually, because of his personality, the way his game has taken off, where he might just be like, all right, guys. I got this. Like, enough of this. Like, I, to watch Embiid

foul hunt, fall all night. And then he was like really dirty against the Knicks too, which that doesn't bother me as much in the playoffs, but he just was, it was weird. It was a really weird series for him because then he'd be unstoppable and all this stuff. And it's like, what is, what is the goal here?

Because I wanted them to play Boston. I wanted to see Philly against Boston because Embiid having to chase Przingis and close out to him five feet. Embiid would have retired. I have to go all the way out here and chase him and then recover? It's not happening. I'm not doing it. Does he learn anything from the Olympics? Coming through a couple times? Yes, I would say so. And surrounded by those guys and surrounded by the coaching staff. What did he learn?

They don't give him those bullshit calls against Senegal. FIBA basketball rules are the best rules. Let's go hire all the FIBA referees. Let's just fire all the referees in the NBA. I think he did it so he can bolster the individual resume. Now he's got the Olympic gold, and it was going to be way easier with the United States. I have... Are we really going to pretend it's anything other than that? No. No. I have real concerns about them as a playoff team.

If the crunch time lineup is Embiid, Caleb Martin, Paul George, Oubre, and Maxie, which I assume that would be it because even he saw it in the Olympics last year, I just think Embiid's slow to the ball. I think you can offensive rebound him to death, right? And if the other players on the court are going to be Caleb Martin, Paul George, Oubre, and Maxie, I just think they're going to, I don't think they're going to get big rebounds when it matters. That was why they lost the Knicks series. Yeah.

What I do like, and I was looking at shot quality for guys, and maybe I'll save it for Paolo, but

like maxi's volume went up but the quality went down and i think he had those stretches without him bead like i'm blown away by maxi not just the development i think he's got the right personality for all this stuff and it looks like they do have a bunch of options that mccain like the sixers ending up with mccain and there's a chance that it's pretty good you're already miserable about it yeah i'm mad about that but i i would hope that with george is the guy on the wing and uber was terrific for him

But having Paul George, at least in the regular season, as we'll see, that the Maxey attempts may go down, but the quality should go up because it felt like Maxey was saving their ass offensively so many different times. And he still put up all these terrific numbers. I voted as an all-star starter, but the efficiency on some of the stuff wasn't as good as maybe you would think it would be for how good he was. I think he just was stuck.

He was stuck trying to save him. And that should just be better this year. He's my biggest fear for the over that he would just be awesome this season. He could do it. And there's going to be games. But when I saw that Embiid's definitely not playing back-to-backs and it seems like Paul George is going to be careful too. And all their rhetoric about we're all about the playoffs, we're all about the title. To me, that ties into the over-under. I don't think they care what spot they're going to be in the playoff seats. I don't think they're going to be chasing the division.

And I just think they want to get to the playoffs with these guys healthy, which makes it an under for me. I will say this, though. I do think this is kind of a make or break season for Daryl's career. Daryl's been running teams now for almost two decades, right? This is...

arguably his best chance he's ever going to have. Paul George, every year from now on, is going to be, each year will be 4% or 5% worse because he's hitting his mid-late 30s. I don't know. I don't have any, I think, okay, so he hasn't won it, but... I'm saying this is his best chance. Yeah, because he doesn't have the Warriors in his way, right? He's in the East. You basically have to hope the Celtics and Knicks basically play each other. I don't think you want to play both of them. Maybe you luck out and they end up

you know, in the one four or something like that. But I don't think they're going to have a better chance on paper, but I just don't know if I believe in this team on paper. So I'm going under. Also, one other Paul George question. It would make me nervous why the Clippers didn't pay him if I was a Philly fan. I don't think it matters. It was the fourth year. Exactly. So what's wrong with that?

Ballmer cares now about the future four years from now? I would agree with that, but you know who never cares about the back end of a contract? It's Daryl. That's a fact. I'm just talking about what did the Clippers know? Because I think they're the ones that are dealing with a player day in and day out for six years. So they were just like, whoa, four years, that's too rich for our blood? That's crazy. They just gave Kawhi Leonard an extension. No, you're right. He couldn't even play.

But it was this or what? That Paul George was the deal breaker? This or what for the Sixers? It wasn't like they had their pick of five or six different players. I'm not arguing with the Sixers part. I would just be nervous that the Clippers were like, yeah, all right, good luck, man. I think you were nervous already. Yeah. And you had no choice. Here's your fourth year. We're nervous as hell. Thank you. Are you under or over? Under. And House is slight over. I feel like it's a 50 and a half. The bottom line is there's a lot of 50 win teams in the league this year. We're going to take a break and then hit the other two in this conference, Star Division.

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heavy under the heaviest that's the lock wow cool this is are we doing worse rosters or we could do that right now if you want okay um look washington's terrible but at least with mike winger and the people there there's a plan and and they're really smart and he has a really good track record so

you know, we all know what's going on there. It's just that SAR, I don't know how exciting that's going to be the first year. Alex SAR. I think not exciting. I can tell you that house is not excited. Not excited. All right. There you go. That's season ticket holder. Unexcited. Definitely not a season ticket holder. Not, not yet. Under any circumstances. Season tickets available house. Everything's available. There's nothing not available. How about you get you in the 300s for a six pack, a Homer, a massage. They offered me a massage during the game. Kind of massage. All right. So, uh,

Look, Chicago's been mentioned. Portland's been mentioned. I don't, you know, I don't, I think that's a little disrespectful. You know, there's some Charlotte stuff you go through there too deep going, is this that much fun? Let me offer to you Toronto and what they're spending on this group. Because once we looked at the numbers after the off season, everything had settled down. So this team went 25 and 57.

They traded for quickly and RJ Barrett where I'll go on record saying like, I think OG and some of the shooting numbers are a little inflated because they're specific where I thought RG had a little bit more or RJ Barrett had a little bit more flow to the game and like getting into his offense. So I think he's actually like a little bit more talent offensive player. The metrics on it. Tell me I'm an idiot. Okay, fine, fine. Quickly. You knew as soon as you signed him, you're going to be like, I really like him. Now I don't.

They're spending $81.5 million this year on Quickly, R.J. Barrett, and Bruce Brown. That's $81 million on those three guys. And remember that Brown contract was this weird thing that floated around because Denver couldn't match it. Next year, next year with the new extension for Barnes, well, I like Barnes, so at least Barnes gives you more hope than, say, anyone in some of these other bad rosters. You're paying Barnes, Quickly, and R.J. $109 million.

And if you want to throw in Yaka Purtle's $20 million, that's $129 million in two years for Barnes, Quickly, RJ Barrett, and Yaka fucking Purtle, who I like. I like Yaka Purtle. They gave him an $80 million extension because they traded for him. I think they added a Linick contract.

Because they gave up a pick for Purtle. Right, but they're bad and kind of expensive. Yeah. I don't understand this. It's the rarest of rare. Yeah. The Pistons hit this a couple years ago. Yeah, when they had Blake. The Quigley contract is exactly the type of contract I would just never give out if I was a GM. It's in that Jordan Poole hero. You're paying between $30 and $40 million for a guy who... Is it time for an investor call on Masai Ujiri?

Oh, man. Is it time? I don't know if I had any Masai stock. Masai won the title. He won the title. We are officially five years outside the won the title window. Well, he's definitely outside it. I think the Raptor fans are kind of wondering what's going on with this team. What the fuck is this team? I can't believe what... You're right, House. Anyway, answer your own question. No, I'm just asking. Here's a...

The trade of OG is fine. Why would you bring back those two guys? What is your goal? What are you imagining you're going to do with this team? How are those two guys foundational pieces? Who are you competing against for that quickly money? Right. With somebody else sitting there like... The Russians? Another league? Is there another league? Yeah. Is there a live basketball tournament that we don't know about? I don't... What's weird is that for all the money they spent, I still don't like...

how all of these guys mesh together. You know who doesn't? Who else doesn't? Darko, their head coach. Because they couldn't figure it the fuck out. Right, and they've got Grady Dick running around, and then Jacoby Walter, who was one of my least favorite guys in the draft, and we'll see. You know, I don't know. I've been wrong before. Baggi found his way over there a little bit. Um...

It's a very, like when I started adding up your core pieces, you were going to pay Scotty Barnes too much in the rookie extension. Fine. I just got to do it. He's better than, again, some of these other rosters are going through. They'd kill to have Scotty Barnes. We're all on the same page there. But when I added it up, I went, that's a, when you're nine figures deep and that's the group,

I had in my notes, what's the point of this team? Before you did your rant. You nailed it. No, I just, that was, you did your rant. A couple knowers of ball. I did some ranting too. I was just like, I don't understand the point of all these players together. And if Grady Dick is bad, then who knows? But he's kind of the only. I don't think he's bad. I'm saying if he's not good for how they're leaning on him this year, this team could be really bad.

I have a special little segment for Russo. I did not give him a heads up for it. Didn't he doesn't need prep. This is, this is going to be the Russo genius at work. Worst crunch time. Go to plays. Where does the Scotty Barnes ISO rank with some of the others? I wrote down four for some thought starters, but I don't even know if you need the thought starters. Worst ISO plays.

Down two with 48 seconds left coming out of a timeout. And you're like, this is going to be fucking dog shit. I can't wait to watch this. So what do you got? I would say LaMelo.

in something, the high screen and roll, stop, look down, wave at kids, courtside. Okay. That's not one of my favorites, although he only played 22 games last year. Can you top the pool Kuzma high screen? No, pool has to be on the floor at the end of the game. I think Cam Thomas not knowing the other four guys checked in after the timeout.

is another one. Wait, I have teammates? We haven't even done those guys wearing my shirt. I can't wait to share my Cam Thomas number with you guys. What about, would you go scoot eight and pick and roll? I like that. Okay. And stretches the floor scoots dynamic off the dribble.

The Tatum-Steckbach three at the end of the quarter? I'm glad you included that. That does suck. Yeah, that one sucks. I don't know what the stats are, but they're awful. Remember the ones against Atlanta when they blew both of those games? Oh, yeah. Yeah, that week. Are there any other ones? I don't know. I guess we could go. There were some Jalen Green ones a couple years ago where I was like, hey, I was the top pick. Everybody just get out of the way, please. Under for me. Under for Rosillo as a lock. Under for Joe House? Yeah, under, under. I mean...

I got to say, I'm a little confused why this over-under was so high. The 29 and a half. Maybe they thought Nick Nurse was still there. But that just, I would have, when I was doing these, I would have guessed like 24 and a half, 25 and a half for them. Think about it. They went 25 and 57 with Siakam portion. Right. Yeah. Like this is a lock for me. And they also didn't have a first round pick. Not that maybe this draft wouldn't help. All right. Last team in this division, the Brooklyn Nets.

Hustle and I scouted them last night against the Wizards on one of the TVs. Their over-under is an astonishing 18.5. And they have their own first-round pick, which they traded back for. Starting lineup. I mean, they have a lot of professional basketball players, Hustle. You want to go through it? I'm here. We watched it last night. Claxton, Fanny Smith, Cam Johnson. We're still his favorite, Cam Thomas. Dennis Schroeder, Olympic hero.

Rejuvenated Ben Simmons. Bogdanovich is on this team. Sharp, clowny. It's a professional basketball team. Jillian Hayes. I thought 18 and a half is too low, and I'm actually leaning over unless you guys can talk me out of it. I'm not going to talk you out of it. I'm already over, and I didn't even really hesitate. This didn't feel hard to me. If their intention, and it's pretty express, is to...

harvest these bodies and then trade them for assets and be in position to get Mr. Cooper flag, then the way to do that is to play these guys and let them get some minutes. And if these guys play, they're going to win some basketball games because they're better than, you know, some of the rosters that we've looked at and talked about. By the way, 32 and 50 last year. Yeah, exactly.

19 wins. It's a pretty big drop off. It's such a low ceiling. It's an over for me. We were impressed last night because they actually have a bunch of guys, whether you like them or not, who know where to move on a basketball court and offense. For the most part. And for the most part, like Simmons, I have no idea how many games he's going to play, but he looked genuinely good last night. If they try and make him a trade asset. Yeah. Anything, even the, even a second, right?

What do you got for sale? I can't wait for the next Simmons contract and next team. Just excited about it. Could be San Antonio. I like Cam Johnson and Germany Schroeder is a whole different animal there. What if he just becomes Germany Schroeder? Has he thought about it? He needs to go to Orlando for that. Benny Smith, Clowney another year of seasoning, Claxton. It's kind of like Sharp a little bit out of the draft. Here's a number for you.

Here's where all your overs go to die. This is going to be Cam Thomas. He should be a first-round pick in fantasy. How many field goal attempts will he take? Well, let's take a look at the per 100. Not just field goal attempts. A better sense of when you're out there, how often are you letting it fly? Cam Thomas averages 28 field goal attempts per 100. That's fourth in the NBA average.

With other notable role players, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, and Steph Curry. This is why he's 50-1 on Fando for points per game scoring title. It's not a bad bet with that value because I think they know, like, they have to tank. They can't screw around. They've got to worry about the Wizards. 18.5 is such a low number, but I think the 32-50 last season is irrelevant. There's a couple vibe killers on this team. Give me the under. Okay.

On Cam Thomas, because I don't feel like you went far enough. Cam Thomas, he scored 27 a game in the last two months of the season on 400 shots a game. But I was thinking about the Good Stats, Bad Team Hall of Fame. Sure. And I actually went through and just spent way too much time on this. And I'm going to give you my starters and a four-man bench.

Pete Maravich, 1977, 31 points a game. Pete belongs on these teams because Pete was a good stats, bad team guy for his entire career. Bradley Beal, your favorite, 2021, 31.3 points a game.

World be free. 1980 San Diego Clippers. 30.2 points a game. All these guys I picked had losing records. Kevin Willis, 1991, 15.4 rebounds a game. Remember when he was just trying to win the rebound title and like everything else be damned? Sven Nader, same thing, 1980, 15.1 points a game. And then the bench. You bring up Sven Nader a lot. I don't know anything about him. Sven Nader, 15 a game. Manute Bull, 1986 Bullets. What'd he do? Four.

Five blocks a game in 26 minutes. I'm throwing them on there. I needed rim protection. You can't put Mnuchin, not Mark Eaton. Mark Eaton's team won the game. Yeah, they won. Jerry Stackhouse, 2001, 29.8 points a game on 24 shots a game. And then Freeman Williams, my third 1980s San Diego Clipper, the all-time good stats, bad team guy, Jellybean Joe Brown was on there as well. 18.6 points a game in 25.8 minutes.

And then my favorite, John Drew, 1983 Jazz, 21.2 points a game in 27.4 minutes. It was fucking going up when he was in the game. Anyway, I think Cam Thomas has a chance to world be free at this year. I think it could be legendary, and I think that's by design. But then I think it's going to piss off other guys. I think Bridges literally stopped caring. It was so bad during the season. That's just an observation, no intel.

More popular, the Liberty or the Nets right now? It's got to be the Liberty. I think it is. They got next. It's happening. We're moving to the Southeast, but not before we take a break. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. You can now get almost anything you need for game day delivered through Uber Eats. What do we mean by almost? Well,

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All right, the Southeast is our last division. We always end in the Southeast. Always. Who's your turquoise guy? You got one? Orlando Magic starting us off 47 and a half. Last year, we were super bullish on the Orlando Magic. We went all in. We all had the over. It won easily. They were 47 and 35. They lost Markel Fultz. Tough one for Cerruti. He's still unsigned. Well, he's having knee issues. Yeah, well, just, you know. They added KCP.

Yeah. They are minus 145 for the division, 17-1 for the conference, 16-1 for the one seed. So OKC goes from 24 wins to 40 to 55 last three years. Orlando goes 22 to 34 to 47. What's the limit this year in your head for wins? 50. I think this could be a 50-win team. 50 to 53? Yeah.

Sure. I mean, fine. You know, low 50s. It's an over for me at 47 and a half. I like that number. 47 games last year. The offense was the lowest of any playoff team at 22 in the league. You got it, House? I mean, those are all my notes.

No, I don't. I'm not going to go through them all. We're 100% lockstep. 27th and three point frequency. 25th and three point accuracy. Will Franz fucking Wagner Wagner make a fucking three when it matters? When? Give me the Franz Wagner sizzle reel. I can't imagine he's going to be this bad. He's just going to be bad from three now. What happened, though?

Because for sure, the team got better last year. The team was better and the stakes were higher. And he sucked. I think it was a good learning experience for him. I'm not scared off. But there's been a lot of good players that had a shitty playoff. I thought he was pretty good in the Olympics. It wasn't just the playoffs. He was a bad three-point shooter last year. I get it. I'm going over as well.

And I'm putting a lock on that one. Wow. Yeah. Oh, locking it up. I am. This is where you guys are going to beat me because I'm taking their under. I think they're going to go 47 and 35 again. You've really got it mapped out to the half game. Well, I just. Your model. So here's the thing. I don't know why they wouldn't be better.

Because I think Franz will be better. Paolo might actually be better in like a, oh my God, he's one of the best 11 players in the league. That's the answer for why I'm going to lose this bet. KCP was one of the two things they needed. They still need the other thing, which is they need somebody who can give that. Like I thought Malik Monk would have been perfect for them. But somebody like that, that can come off the bench and create offense for them. But Isaac's going to be playing. They brought him back.

I think they have different looks. They basically just re-signed all their own guys. They did. They have continuity. They have continuity in a good way. Which is smart and good. And then the question for me is... So if they won 47, yeah. The question for me is, can they get anything out of Anthony Black? Yeah, why not? I mean, why would Anthony Black... Can he give them...

20 minutes. I want somebody to help me understand Franz Wagner. That's the thing. I'm worried. He was not good in the Olympics. I don't. His brother was very good in the Olympics. His brother was still in this team. I know. Sadly, to everyone's chagrin, Gary Harris is back on the team. I was really hoping this would be it for our long national nightmare. They can't shake him. Gary Harris. They just can't quit Gary Harris. But this is a strong, strong over for me.

17-1 for the conference, I thought, was interesting too because... Did you watch that series against Cleveland last year? I get it. I'm just saying. You know me better than anybody. I'm a petty bettor. I lost money on them because they couldn't score the effing basketball. And show me how that's going to change. Here's what needs to change, though. Here's what needs to change. I'm listening. So I think that Paolo is a really good example of...

watching and the difference between the analytic approach to him because there was some stuff that would tell you he's overrated he's not super efficient and i would counter with when you watch them the number of games especially when it started to really like become a thing end of the year into january that denver game he's hitting all these huge shots and you're like this is happening like this is really happening i'm doing the monologue on this guy tomorrow and

But he was bailing them out of so many awful possessions because they didn't have the traditional point guard part of it. And...

If you look at shot quality, and there's variation for however you want to look at it, but like, okay, who has the most possessions in the NBA? Well, Luka had the most possessions last year. Where did he rank on like shot quality points per possession? Well, because he's so good and everything was on him, he was in the 41st percentile, right? Not very good. At the high end, shocker, Jokic, because he won't take bad shots. He just won't. He was in the 92nd percentile. Paolo was in the 20th percentile on shot qualities.

according to the data that I have, which again, there could be a number that goes a little, but it's pretty glaring that he got stuck taking so many bad shots because everything was on him, which I think is the explanation of dragging down that efficiency and the arguments that I've seen that maybe he's not really as good. I think he is so special and the burden that he had. And again, it comes down to watching it. Like, why is he inefficient? Is he inefficient or is he in inefficient?

And so I think he's like a really good study of last year of the difference between just what the numbers tell you and then why those numbers exist in the first place. Situation. We're allowed to switch. Yeah, you're allowed to switch. I'm going over. Because you reminded me, as you were making the good...

compelling case about Paolo that I bet him to win the MVP of this league at plus 153 at 153 to one odds. I like it's fucking, I mean, he has the talent to do it someday. There's no question, but yeah, it's not going to be this season. No, but that number was just like, I think what you say about situation with stats is such a good point. Cause I was thinking about that a lot. I talked about it on my podcast with Drake May and Brissette.

Where you're like, you can't play Drake May because the Pats can't block anyone. The quarterback's under siege. And it's like, well, part of the reason they're under siege is because everyone who plays them knows that Brissette can't throw the ball more than seven yards. So the defense is just all the way up. And yeah, of course they're under siege. And then when Drake May, you could see in the second half, their offensive line still can't block that well, but the field opened up and things opened up and all of a sudden guys were open because they couldn't play up like they did because he could throw it over their heads.

And the Palo thing, there's so many times last year where six seconds left on the shot clock and they would throw it to him and be like, okay, I...

You know, he had those. I already see it. The whole defense shaded to his side. The 6'10 guy dribbling from the elbow left to right. And then, you know, this kind of fit. Yeah. You're looking to go on that shot's not that great. But the reason I brought up Anthony Black was they so desperately needed that point guard something. Just to alleviate it. He can't be initiating literally everything. No. And you're right. Like you hope it's more Suggs or more Anthony Black. I totally agree. Miami Heat.

So we're all over on Orlando, Miami heat 43 and a half plus one 75 for the division plus two 40 to miss the playoffs minus one 25 for the plan. They're basically running it back. They made their big trade last February and it seems like they're kind of standing pat waiting to see how it happened. Where, what,

How this plays out. Um, we're still, are you buckled up for the Jimmy Butler revenge store? Oh yeah. Cause there's some Kaiser. So is a shit brewing right now. And I don't know if people are focused on it. I love the Pat Riley just called him out and it fucking worked. Right. It pissed him off. He didn't even do like the stupid hair at media day thing. He's fucking pissed. He's like, Oh, you don't think I can play? You don't think I can play more than 60 games? Motherfucker. Like he's mad.

And Mad Jimmy Butler, I'm in. The Butler story in general is just kind of fascinating because this Miami deal with the 20 finals and, you know, what he did a couple of years ago and getting this team. Yeah. Like, I don't know that anybody's ever been rewarded more for not winning a title.

And again, they should be. He's a Hall of Famer now. He didn't win the title, but he's certainly a player that we're going to remember from whatever this generation was. Right. I mean, we've already covered this. But they didn't give him the extension because, and then Riley called him out. Riley is at the old man in his 80s stage where he just gives no fucks anymore. He's like, fuck this. You weren't available to us enough last year. We didn't like how the season went. We're not giving you the max extension.

prove it to us that you deserve one. And I think Jimmy Butler is like, okay. And they still probably won't do it. I'd like to see the full Rozier experience with these guys and another year of Jovich. Jovich is probably one of my favorite. Like, could this...

happen thing. There was some Olympic stuff with him too. Yeah. I really liked him before the draft. So I'm a little more invested. You're two of Hawkeyes. They signed out Berks. And then everybody liked where the draft pick is. As soon as you watch them play in the summer league, you're like, Oh, that'll make a lot of sense for them. Like it fits a real need to kind of balance out what bam gives you. Look, it's an over just because of a spoke.

Same boat, 100%, exact same boat. Not fading Miami, not fading Spoh. Just not going to do it. I went into... How'd they win 46 games last year? Exactly. I went into the preseason like, this is the year it all falls apart for Miami. So did I. It's going to be a disaster. Jimmy Butler's checked every box for me. I'm all in.

I think he's going to be really good, at least for the first two months. Whether he can stay healthy, he's 35 years old, we'll see. But I think he's going to have a huge chip on his shoulder this year. So we're all in on Miami. Plus, by the way, they still have a trade to make. That's it. That's the reason why. January, February range, there's moves that they could make. They're always willing to try and get better. 44 is a low bar for them, it feels like to me. Well, we're about to do the most fun team that we could possibly do. But we have to take one more break.

Here we go. The podcast has moved to this moment right here. The Atlanta Hawks, the team that really messed up what would have been an incredible run for us last year, which was still really great. They really screwed us. Not only did they screw us, but they had one of the worst records against the spread in the history of the NBA, I think, for as long as they've been tracking it. Just a massive disappointment. Every time it felt like it was going to get better, it didn't. They finally traded DeJounte Murray. Their over-under has dropped down to 36-14.

and a half. They had the number one pick in the draft. They took Risa Shea, controversial pick. They traded Murray for Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance and some picks. I'm going to hold my thoughts. Rosselli, you start us off because I know what House thinks.

Uh, every year I pick the over because I'm like, you know, this team's actually pretty talented, even though Trey's not my favorite. The DeJounte thing backfired. They still owe all the picks. So they have to stay competitive, even though they got super lucky with Risa Shea, potentially in the worst year to get that lucky. Uh, fuck it under. Under? I'm stunned. I'm so sick of like, you know, DeAndre Hunter can just get a couple of steady months. You know, Buffkin is interesting. Yeah.

I'm thrilled about Dyson Daniels. Look, every year I pick over. I talk about their talent. This feels like a spite under. It's 100%. It's a spite under. Great read. It really resonates with me. House? You guys are going over. You're doing it again. I'm going super over. I'm going way over. I'm going over with Locke next to it. Okay. 36 and a half. Sign me up. Here's the biggest thing. Dominic Barlow? They don't have their first round pick.

Yeah. San Antonio has it. There's literally no incentive for them to suck. I'm not saying they're going to tank, but like we just did it a year ago. You're right. I'm chasing it. I'm chasing it a year later. It's fine.

All right, I'm going to go here. Okay. Kind of like the team. We watched it last night and we were like, Jesus Christ, there's seven six-foot-nine athletic guys who can shoot threes on this team. What's happening? Well, they'll suck on defense again. I don't see. So we were watching Risa Shea closely last night. I think he's going to play and I think he's going to be good.

You might be the first person I've heard say that. How about this? I'm looking for places on Resa Shea Island. Yeah. Yes. I mean, it's a lot of undeveloped land. I think you can have any place you want. We watched this play. There was this play in the second half. And I watched it and House was barely paying attention. I rewound it. I was like, House, watch this. He was...

defending somebody at the top of the key, like 35 feet away. Guy made a drive to the right. He stuck with him the whole way, forced a kick out. Sounds incredible. Misplay, moving the other way. Reese O'Shea busts his ass down so he could get a layup. And I was just like...

This guy gets it. I'm in. This guy plays defense. He runs the floor. He can shoot threes. And, you know, it's hard. I'm so bad at picking foreign guys. But that you just articulated the scouting report, right? He played in. He was a Euro Cup rising star. He looked like an adult is my point. I was like, this guy looks like he's 25. He played in a competitive league and he always had the other team's toughest wing.

in that league. I hope so. And then you throw in Daniels who you've liked for three fucking years. Yeah, I like Daniels. You love Daniels. So maybe they will be better on defense because they have him and they have Larry Nance and we haven't even mentioned Jalen Johnson. There you go. Jalen Johnson. Jalen Johnson bump is

is the reason for the over. You know what? No, I'm not doing that. Come on. Come join us. You can flip. I flipped on. I flipped on. I know I can. Come. I don't want to. I'm going to wear... I don't want to. Didn't mention Bogdanovich. I'm going to eat lemon pepper wings. Bogdanovich, Trey Young, with DeJounte's not here. Now I can cook. I think DeJounte... Have you seen Capella? He's huge.

I don't want him huge. He's doing the opposite of Tim Duncan slash Joel. You know who else they have? Your guy, Larry Nance. I love Larry Nance. Kind of like Buffkin. I like this team. I'm back in. What do you think they're going to do? Nine seed?

I just think they're high 30s. 36 and a half is too low. High 30s. That's all we need, boys. It's the play in Hawks. That's their identity. They're literally the play in Hawks. I've done this for like three years. Not doing it this year. They don't have their pick this year. They have a Sacramento protected first. Spurs swap in 26. They have either Milwaukee or New Orleans' pick in 27. Worst one. And then they own all their own firsts. 28, 29, 30.

So they're actually incentivized to give a shit. I just like their team. I just like the makeup of just a bunch of long guys who can shoot people staring at me sarcastically. Rebounders and rim protection. Bogdanovich is a heat check guy. Sure. And the East sucks. They can't wait to make a play-in. There's six terrible teams in the East. They're dying. They're going to win 39 games. You guys might be right. I'm not doing it. You don't have to. We tried. Charlotte Hornets, over under 30 and a half.

This is a lock under. Great.

I'm right there to join you. I didn't even wait. Sorry. No. I couldn't believe the number. I couldn't believe the number. They were 21 and 61 last year. They were actually above expected. Their offense is terrible. Their defense was worse. They can't shoot. Maybe the Meechich minutes were exciting for people. Lonzo's back. Excuse me. Lamello is back. Who has one of the most incredible stat profiles of any guy you're going to run across. Yeah.

He's played 184 of 328 games in four years. He had...

like a top 10 usage rate in the games he played, but he also had like a minus 12 net rating. So for all the guys that are like the highest usage, they're the best players in the league. So they're generally like the net rating is pretty good. And with him, it was off the charts. Terrible. He's, I would say he's the stat head MVP. You know that thing in basketball, because there's other things you can look up where it's like only seven guys ever have averaged 22, six and six for the first four years. Yeah. And you know, that muse won't have that because they'll shoot out lines of ball. Yeah.

Like, are you looking for a condo in St. Pete? Are you looking for the Ball State water polo team? You know, you could talk yourself into the Brandon Miller part of it. Let's see what happens with Mark Williams' health. And then, you know, no one would have suggested that Miles Bridges' extension at that number made sense, but they felt like they were...

In a spot where they had to protect the asset, it's a lot of money. Josh Green comeback? Yeah. Look, I read something about Josh Green, like, oh, he flamed out. I always kind of liked the Josh Green. Me too. Yeah, you're fine. Hustler. Great role player. A lot of energy through that. So, whatever. I'm going to stop talking now, but it's under. You didn't talk about Grant Williams. Bench Grant Williams, plug and play. Veteran leader. Yeah.

House. The only case to go over is it's two parts. It's it's Lamello ball plays 65 games in Charles Lee is a magician. Charles Lee. There's all there's a lot of Charles Lee love out there. Beloved Charles Lee coming together and an enormous improvement over Steve Clifford. And he's going to put all these guys. They're all going to buy in.

I'm not going to buy in. I've already stayed in my position on the under, but that's the case for the over. It's Lamella Ball playing, you know, Trey Mann. Two thirds of the game. Unleashed, perhaps. Meechich? Zero playoff games in the last eight years. Can Lamella be the best guy on a playoff team? No. Fuck no.

No, he's funny how like the mellow thing has now kind of come full circle where I didn't like him before the draft. And then some teams that were working him out were like, dude, he's so big. And the way he sees the court. And then when you watch him in the beginning, you're like his handle and the shooting numbers and all of this stuff. And I kind of think he's like, he's this, he's like a creative player video game guy that your kids fucking love. Totally agree with this. And then you look at the other stuff, you're like, they stink all the time. They are.

124 and 194 in the LaMelo era. I thought long. He misses a lot of time, like way more than I realized. I thought long and hard about the over. And here's why. You mentioned Charles Lee.

The Celtics love that dude. I know. Like that guy, they thought that guy was amazing. And everyone in Milwaukee loved him too. And I actually think he's going to be a really good coach. Sure. It feels like their organization in general, like the heritage GM that everybody respects, they have like a new ownership group. They're taking their time. They're not doing that. We bought a team. Let's they're not, they even let everybody stay. I think for a year from the previous regime. Right.

They've just handled their business correctly. So I'm kind of rooting for the over, but I don't see the talent. I don't know if people like, I don't know if all the stuff will ever come out, but Jordan may have been one of the worst like owner into the front office guys. Yeah. Like, I think there's just so much respect for him. It was like, ah, let's not even like do one of these stories, but just terrible, terrible at it. A poll on new.

That's why. Yeah, Abe got out. I really wanted to go over. I don't think they're going to get anything from their first-run pick this year, which made me nervous. And then, even though I think people... Saloon, I think people like the pick, but he's... I don't see him playing like 35 minutes a game. Please. Once... Just unleash him? Once every couple weeks, it should be like, go out there and... Just go nuts? He's...

Watch him the first time he goes to box out a guy in an NBA game. The other guys, if it's an older player who's been around with some resume, he's going to get so pissed off at him. I was watching him box out. I would rewind the clips watching him box out against guys. He plays every possession like it's the last time he's ever going to be allowed to play basketball. So I kind of loved him, but I also am afraid he might not be good. Well, here's the problem with all this going under on Charlotte. So if you look at the play-in tournament,

Let's just say, let's say the top six in the East are Boston, Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Milwaukee, Philly, in some order, right? Those six. I think that's fair. And then Indiana as the seventh, but maybe they move up. Somebody bounced down. There's basically a top seven. And then you have Miami and Atlanta. I think we would say are in the eight, nine spots probably, but we still need a 10th playing team. And the options are Charlotte, Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, or Washington.

And from what we just did, we think all of those teams are going to be under 30 wins. So we might have a play-in team that goes like 29 and 53. Didn't I go over on Chicago? Maybe you did. But my point is we've never had, we'll probably never be in a worse play-in situation than this. They should probably just say this, the 7C just gets to advance and let's have the 8-9 for the...

for the eighth seed. If they announced before the season started that Brandon Miller was going to be the focal point of the team and they were going to build him up and that was going to be the way over the mellow. I would, I would bet on them. I would bet on, on Charlotte. I like what they're doing. I like that they put shooters around the mellow. I think there's a plan. I think the coach is good. Everyone likes the GM and there's something here. Are you still sticking with the under? I'm sticking under.

I mean, the big news... Because also LaMelo plays, what, 50 games a year? They convinced him to wear ankle braces on both his ankles. That's the big LaMelo news. All right. Last but not least, the Washington Wizards. Oh, God. Always finishing the podcast. This is a tradition unlike any other. The Wizards being the last team. They're over under this year's 20 and a half. Is that a new low house?

They've been that low? What were they last year? 23 and a half, 24 and a half? 20 and a half is low. 20 and a half is low. They're 18 to one to make the playoffs. Last year, they were 15 and 67. It should be 180,000 to one to make the playoffs. They lost Avdija, who I thought was their most reliable player, and replaced him with Malcolm Brogdon and Bub Carrington.

Anybody else I'm leaving out? Well, Carrington, they drafted. Yeah. They drafted George. They drafted Carrington. They had a good draft. And Alex Sarr. No, I'm saying, right. In a historically bad draft. Patrick Baldwin, big high school profile. They got. So, and they added Jonas Valanciunas. So the starting five, I'm guessing, is Jonas, who will be traded in February. Alex Sarr. Kuz, Kyle Kuzma. Who will be traded whenever. Yeah.

Malcolm Brogdon and Jordan Poole. Will Brogdon open up Jordan Poole's game? I think Brogdon's hurt. He's already hurt. He's already hurt? Coolabally. Johnny Davis is fifth on the depth chart.

I'd be trying to trade for Kispert if I was another team. He could absolutely help somebody. I'm going to do whatever you want to do on this. I was leaning toward under lock for the Wizards. Oh, let's just do it. What is there to talk about? What goal do they have? What player? I mean, we got the benefit of... We watched them play Brooklyn last night. They lost by, I don't know, 35-40. Their average losses in the preseason have been around 29 points. I mean...

It's the worst roster in the league. I even think it's worse than Brooklyn's roster. Are you kidding? This is one of the worst rosters I've ever seen. And I mean, look, it's by design. They traded their three most efficient players, Denny, Tyus, and Gafford. Sounds like a lock for you. Right? So, I mean, I'm a little guilty, but part of my strategy for this was...

I think there's such a massive gap past a certain line of like the seventh team in the East and then the rest of the teams down. Yeah. That I think I was over heavy and under heavy of just the two dueling spectrums of, of where we're at. And I just don't think Washington's going to screw around when it comes to Cooper flag. I don't think Brooklyn, like what is the point? So I think there's those three teams where at this number, uh,

I thought it was a gift at 20 and a half. I can't believe that they're forecast to have more wins than Brooklyn. That's the thing about it. How low would that under have been before you thought about not going under? Because for me, it was probably 15 and a half. Yeah. Seriously. 15 and a half would have made me go, I can't now. Right. I mean, look, the randomness of if you get the four extra wins that you're not supposed to get, then it screws the whole number up. But you're telling me they're going to win one out of every four games?

They don't have the all-dunters yet because I did that with the Pats and the Panthers in the NFL. But when they have the all-dunters and it can go to like 16.5 with like plus 200 on the Wiz, like I'm doing that. It's bangy time. Yeah. I'm going. All right. So the Wiz, we're all going under. All right. Let me recap what we did and then we're going to do our locks. Last but not least. So...

We have the Boston Celtics, 58 and a half. We, me and Rosilla went over house one under next 53 and a half. I went under house one under Rosilla went over Philly 50 and a half. I went under Rosilla went under house one over. It's so right. So that number on the Paul George thing dropped again. Again. Yeah. 15 and a half. Yeah. Like in the last 24 hours. All right. Toronto.

29 and a half. Under, under, under. Rosillo threw a lock on there. Brooklyn Nets, 18 and a half. How's that I went over? Rosillo went under. Southeast. That's the Cooper flag in me. I get it. I think there's going to be a couple teams dueling it out there. I just think they have too many pros. Yeah, you're right. It'll be one of those in the last two months of the season we'll see some 1-26.

Type records. Orlando, 47 and a half. Over, over, over. I did a lock on that. Miami. Also locked me up. Okay. Lock up Rosillo. I moved to the over, didn't I? Yes. Yeah, good. And then we have the Miami Heat that I thought we were going to be arguing about a little more, but all of us like the over. Heat culture, man. 43 and a half. Scared the shit out of all of us a couple years ago. Atlanta, over. Simmons, lock. House, over.

Russillo under 36 and a half. Charlotte. Spiteful under, you were right. Three unders at 30 and a half for Charlotte. And then three unders at 20 and a half for the Washington Wizards. Lock for me, lock for Russillo. We locked down the Wizards under last year. You could absolutely crush it. It couldn't have hit more easily. Crushed it. So. I said the over, right? I did. I made an impassioned case for them playing hard for a little bit to showcase the talent and that

you know, they weren't incented to just be terrible right from the start. It was way worse than I imagined because I had no idea how bad Jordan pool is at competitive winning. Honestly, this wasn't as bad as Jordan pool was like, he took it to a whole nother level. I'm, I'm buying stock penny stocks, um, quickly before we do the final locks player bets, um,

Points per game, Luka plus 175, SGA plus 430, Giannis 10-1, Ja 48-1, Cam Thomas 50-1. Any leans? Don't need to have one. I don't think Luka, I wouldn't go Luka because I don't think he cares about it now. 33 a game, like by accident. And I think he's going to win the MVP. I think he is going to try and win the MVP this year. I think that's a thing for them. I don't like any of the scoring. Three-pointer, Curry is minus 260, which I think is the best bet in sports.

Dame is 30-1 if you want to go long shot. Blocks per game, Wemby is minus 480. Just lock that one in if he plays 55. Assists per game, Trae Young was plus 140 and Halliburton was plus 170. I actually like the Halliburton odds a little more. LaMelo's 41 if you want to put something on that. Halliburton led the league in assists last year. You know who was fifth? It was LeBron.

Rebounds per game, Sabonis plus 190. Wemby, 6-1 for most rebounds a game. I think he'd have to get to 14. I don't see it. Here's some Wemby odds for you, Rusillo. Will he have a quadruple-double this year? 12-1. I love it. Because it's all year you get to pretend. 12 blocks in a game, 9-1. I feel like that's, I think he gets that.

Couldn't you see him blocking 12 blocks in a game? Is that crazy? The only thing that would be against it is that now the awareness of the, the Wemby U-turn. Yeah. Of where guys like the first half of the season, you saw, I saw a couple of guys, like, I think there was even an Austin Reeves play where I get to ask him about it after the fact. And he was like, dude, I couldn't believe. And now everybody like guys hate having their shot blocked. It's so embarrassing that maybe he just won't have enough attempts at, I don't know. 50 point game plus one 30.

Six triple doubles this year. This was the one that really jumped out to me. 14-1. For Wemby? Yeah. He only has to have six? Yeah. Let's do this. I thought that was a great one. I agree. Because that's just, there'd have to be six games where he has 10 blocks, basically. So there you go. All right. And what did you have for a finals pick? OKC over Boston. Good one. I like...

OKC and the New York Knicks. I have Boston over OKC. Great. I think they repeat and then I don't know what happens to the team after that because the tax bill next year is actually ridiculous. Maybe calculable. Flip a wing for Sohan. I think they could get him. All right, last but not least, before all of us PN ourselves, these are the final locks. Does it have to be that? We only agree on two locks.

Overs, actually. OKC, 57.5%. We're all going over. Luck. Phoenix, 47.5%. We're all going over. Luck. House and I are doing Cleveland, 48.5%. Over. I'm doing Orlando, 47.5%. Over. So is Rosillo. Rosillo is doing Toronto, under 29.5%. House and I are doing over Atlanta, 36.5%. I hope it's not just because we watched that dumb game yesterday. I'm doing Washington, under 20.5%.

Rosillo is doing under New Orleans, 45 and a half. House and I are doing the under for Wemby and San Antonio, 35 and a half. Just too high. Too many. Love to Wemby, but that's just too many. And then I'm doing the under for the Clippers, 37 and a half. House is doing under Denver, 50 and a half. I can't believe you're locking Denver under. And the two of you are both, are you doing Houston over too? Yeah. 42 and a half.

You guys both have the Houston over. I'm just going to enjoy that one from afar. Great. Those are our locks for the 24, 25 NBA season fellas. That was a four and a half hours. It flew by. I had a great time. Thanks to Kyle. It's Rudy. You can watch all of these videos on the, uh,

on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And, Russel, when's your next podcast? Friday. We've got Gronk and Edelman tag team. Wow. Maybe, I don't know, we tape with Dierks Bentley, who I went to college with. So we have a lot of good stuff. Wow. Great. Coming up and some recipes as the leaves start to fall. Wow. And watch, Russel has got a YouTube channel too. House, bring your gambling chauffeur. Yeah, East Coast Bias is on. And the Million Dollar Pixie on Thursday. All right. Good to see you guys.

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