NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The Pacific and Central Divisions With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Booker, Giannis, Haliburton, and AD
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All right, it's part two. We're doing the Pacific Division to start. That is the division that has both L.A. teams in it. It also has the Phoenix Saints. Is that going up past 47.5 right now in FanDuel? I see 47.5. Okay. They are plus 150 for the division, which to me is a bet. You don't know. Nobody knows.

They are 13-1 to be the one seed, which I think is semi-enticing as like an OKC backup bet. And in general, new coach, Coach Bud is in town. They added Tyus Jones. They're finally going to have a point guard. I like Plumlee. I like Monte Morris. Rosillo. I love this team. For the over. Yeah. I think the 47 and a half is...

Is beyond tasty and beyond enticing. I think this is a low to mid fifties win team. Bud's going to have them shooting threes. Durant and Booker coming off the Olympics. I was out last year. I'm in this year. When we last saw them. Yeah. By Minnesota. I know. Everybody laughing at him. I get it. Bradley Beal. It's funny. You want to look at like some misleading numbers. Look at Bradley Beal's like overall numbers. And then.

His splits and all this stuff. Look, I'm with you. I am really impressed with what they were able to do on the margins, considering they had no options. To have Tyus Jones as an option, you can have Booker on the ball later if you want to do that.

Grayson Allen was incredible. They kept Royce O'Neal. This Ryan Dunn thing is even weirder. Yeah, he's been a preseason. Is this going to be like a Phil Plantier situation? Or do we believe this is a deep cut early 90s baseball joke? I'm really excited about it. But look, there's no way. Here's why it's an over for me. They had the worst offense in the NBA in the fourth quarter.

And the worst net rating of 30 NBA teams. This team had the worst net rating in the fourth quarter. It makes no sense. There's no way that happens again. I think it's an over because even through all of their nonsense, they won 49 games last year.

It's a super over for me as well. I mean, I think that the coach bud thing is the, you know, one of the quieter developments in the West and what that does to propelling this team. I think they're like going to be in that four seed, maybe even battling for the three seed. I have them as a two seed.

In the Western Conference? I do. Wow. So that means you have them over Minnesota. I think it's them over Minnesota. I have them right next to each other. And you have them over Dallas? By the way, I like Vogel. And I think he's a good coach who won a title. I just think he was the wrong coach for that team. It was terrible timing, too. They threw that whole effing team together. That team was never going to be good on defense, right? You bring in Vogel, it's like he's going to bring in defensive. And it's like, you know what? This team's not going to be great on defense. You know what they're going to be really good at? Offense.

And I think Bud is just going to, you can see it. He's like, shoot some fucking threes. Get those threes up. That's it. Yeah, you're all good shooters. And Bradley Beal, you know, if he can just play 60 games. He hasn't done that in five years. I don't even know if it matters with him. I'm serious. Yeah, he's a bonus. I'm saying it's exactly. But that's the range between 51 and 55 wins for me if he shows up. Right. Can I read you some Bud stats? I love that people love Bud again.

Regular season Bud with all this talent. Well, I'm going to give you some stats. Career, 801 and 484, 60.4% winning percentage. He had 550 win seasons. Two of those were 60 plus. Here are all the coaches that have 800 plus wins, 60% winning percentage. Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, Steve Kerr, Greg Popovich, Pat Riley, Jerry Sloan, and Coach Bud. That's the entire list. He's a good coach.

The Milwaukee thing got super weird and you could go back and you could watch those games and you could watch that Miami game, which I think blew your brain. You did. Blew my brain out. I think you just did a solo pod for like seven hours after that last Jimmy Butler game. I think I did an emergency pod. I think I did an emergency pod for that game. I don't even, I think the pod accidentally turned on. You were just talking to yourself and we just somehow were recording it. Really good chance. That's also true.

But yeah, I just think Milwaukee got weird. It was time for him to go. He seems... I like everything I've read about him. Everyone's like, this guy's in great shape. He was kind of a mess in Milwaukee. Now he's refocused, needed the year off. But this is like a mad scientist team. This is a team that would be really fun to coach or a nightmare to coach if you're the wrong kind of coach for it. See, that's where I think the Vogel part of it, because it came together and these guys had all the answers, so they weren't going to listen to Vogel. And it's like, actually, you got embarrassed by Ant honking to you guys. So...

I think whoever the next coach was post-Vogel is probably somebody they're going to respond to a little bit because I think they thought they had the plan last year. Right. Yeah, we just rolled the ball out, coach. So if it were reversed, who knows? Well, I mean, he has Nurkic trying threes. I don't know if he's going to actually shoot them during the season, but...

I hope they get off to a good start. I do. I hope they get off to a good start because I think the Durant stuff was heading towards weird town possibly this summer. But Phoenix, remember you and I were doing the pot around the draft. ESPN saying they wanted to trade him. And then I didn't even talk to somebody that said, you can say right now on the pod with Bill tonight, like we're not trading Durant. And I was like, I hope you're not lying to me. And they weren't. Nope. Yeah.

Look, as you know, I completely overrate Olympic basketball at all times. But I think it was good for Duran Booker. That's just a patriot in you. I think it was good for Duran Booker that we had six dudes that in fucking nut crunch time that they trusted. And I thought it was a great experience for Booker. That's my Booker position. All the Booker shit that I take. It's a huge win for him. Booker, Tatum and everything. There's a reason why I stand up for this guy all the time. And Tyus Jones.

Who I think the diehard league pass people, and I include the three of us, like we really liked that guy and he was really good on Memphis and then house Adam. That's all you can say. But still shot 40 over 41% from three on four times a game. He, the whole philosophy of we don't need a point guard. I've just, I will never believe that for the rest of my life. I think you need point guards. The Billy Miller of NBA point guards. Who's Billy Miller? Oh, Billy Miller. Yeah. Our Billy Miller. Baseball Billy. Yeah.

It's still amazing they got him. It's amazing. It's amazing. Because it seemed like... They had no outs and then it was, okay, re-sign and pay too much for this guy. Where was everyone else? Yeah. Monty Morris. I mean... That's another one. Yeah. They did a good job. New owner syndrome. Don't like your centers. New owner syndrome is back. Ishbia is fucking making moves, man. I'm in on this Suns team. So we're all over 47 and a half.

My guess, we have like eight, nine days left. I think that keeps going up. I bet that lands when people watch what the Suns are doing, how many threes they're taking. They're going to be really hard to play. The thing that makes me nervous is Durant. He was in the 2007 draft. House and I were watching a game last night. Remember they showed Greg Oden in the stands? Greg Oden just looks like an old retired player. And he was in the draft with Durant. So it's just, once you get into year 18, year 19...

and never feel awesome. But I think is Booker like a stealth, stealth, stealth MVP candidate? Like super duper long shot?

I don't know. Like, if they're going right, it probably means Durant is cooking again. I mean, he was 52-41, 86 in 70 games last year. I mean, Durant. But then to watch what happened in Minnesota, you're like, okay, this isn't working out. They have odds for him, too. 75-1. You don't have to sell me on Booker. Booker, 100-1. Nah. If they're a one or a two seed, they're at least going to be in the conversation. I just think those are crazy values for a team that I think can be the two seed. All right, next team's Sacramento.

They're over 44 and a half, which went down. I think it was 45 and a half. Might even have been 46 and a half. They're plus 240 for the division. They're minus 170 for the playoffs. They were 46 and 36 last year. And what they did was they turned Harrison Barnes into DeMar DeRozan. And they start Sabonis and Murray and DeRozan and Fox, maybe Ellis, Monk coming off the bench. Monk, Monk. Monk, Monk. You're going to get it down this year? Monk. You're going to try it again? Monk.

Trey Lyles is there. What do you think the origin of that is? I just, listen, I can't control my, my, I have weird ones too, but that's, that's a weird, weird one. Yeah. So this team, I don't know why they were 40 and 34, two years ago and 46, 36 last year. When I did my ringer 100 voting, I had them 1927, 46, 90, 97. I had five of their guys in the top hundred, including two in the top 30. They also have some trade bait. Herder's 16.8.

They have Lyle's with Daniel. Yeah, if you want to ruin your entire team's chemistry. Carter. Sorry, I should have given you a warning on that. But they have moves they can make to get one more guy. And I think I'm over. I think they're a top eight team. I like their team. I think they're going to be hard to play.

I'm an over. Slight over. But I think the DeRozan thing raises their floor because Harrison Barnes would also be a first team selection of did he play tonight. And be like, you just watch him play 38 minutes. It felt like he was getting a little worse too. So it makes sense for San Antonio. But when I run through it, I mean, they've got kind of a Keyon Ellis like thing where...

They probably really liked his defense, which also made them feel like they could move on from Davion Mitchell, who they'd spent a lottery pick on, who, let's face it, he's probably a rotational guard, never going to be a starter for anybody that's pretty good. So DeRozan, three years ago, the Chicago deal, I thought, man, we'll see how that ages out. And it aged out beautifully for them.

I just like where it puts their floor. They're going to try to run you up and down. They're not going to be able to defend anybody. Who cares about the playoff projection for them and playing bigger teams? Like we saw against New Orleans last year where it was just like one of those moments where you go, this is an awful matchup for them every time they play. I just think DeRozan, you're plugging him into those Barnes minutes and Fox and the rest of everybody else is young. There was a lot on Fox last year at the end of games too. Yeah. And that's DeRozan. Yeah.

Yeah. Which is kind of fine, right? Two places to go. House, really good league pass team. I can see you falling asleep in front of the couch on the East Coast for many times. I need to see the Red Mamba at all times. Maryland guy, the Red Mamba, Kevin Porter. Not a lot of people predicting comeback here. I don't know if you want to do an investor relations call. When we call one in quick. It's a tiny bit of stock. I don't know. Kevin Herter, investor relations call.

- Now, yeah, now, hey, look. - Priscilla, you're like actually compromised here. What do you do? - All right, here's the deal. When you're on your boat in 20 years, you've sold all your comedy CDs. - Yeah. - You're doing pretty good. You got a boat. Do you want to look at the guy's boat next to you and you want that guy's boat to be bigger or smaller? Because if you get out of this herder position now,

you're going to be a fucking tender. You're going to be running groceries and shrimp and ice to that guy's boat. Okay. If you want the guy next to you running the supplies to you asking anything else I can do for you. Yeah. That's why you're staying in this hurt position right now. You want to get out like everybody else is going to be in the small boat. Go ahead. Fucking grab some oars, grab some oars. It's a league that loves shooting. Yeah. Maybe you get in a sailing and I'm touching emergency sailing. You want something high powered generators, the whole deal.

Hold. I agree. To hold. To hurt or hold. We're doing it. We all love shooting. I love guys who can make open threes. So you're over, House? I'm over because you side-by-side the Pelicans and this team, and I like this team better than I like the Pelicans. I have the answers that I want to what this roster is going to look like. And also when you're plugging in DeRozan, you want to talk about something I've never even worried about.

Right. Like, oh, okay, cool. Like he'll just get along with everybody and he's better than the guys replacing. And also plays really well against good teams. Every time he played the Celtics, I always felt like, I like, they had so many problems with him and the Celtics were like, you would think the perfect type of team to defend him, but he always got shots that are like, I have them, uh, as in that six, seven, eight range for seeds. Yeah.

Maybe even getting a six if Memphis can't totally get their shit together. So I probably have them six. But I think in that next batch of once you get past OKC, Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, Denver, and you go into that Memphis, Sacramento, Houston, Gold State, New Orleans, Lakers, that group, I think I like them the most. Sure. Also, really good home court.

Like, it matters. Yeah. It's a team that will probably give a shit during the NBA Cup. I'm not positive everyone's going to care, but I think they will. I like this. Let's look at that. All right, we're overs for all of them. We're going to keep moving. Golden State Warriors. I mean, one of the toughest over-unders on the board. Do we all like what they did this offseason, considering? 43 and a half is the over, so the Fandle didn't like it as much because they won 46 games last year. I like the over-over.

You like the over. I liked it at 42 and a half more than 43 and a half because I think it's perfect number for this. Let me throw this at you. On January 1st, they were 15 and 17 was something I was tracking for them in particular. From that point on, they went 39. Excuse me. They're 15 and 17 on January 1st. They went 31 and 19 the last 15. They were eighth in net rating. And that's what Draymond playing 55 games. Yeah, I like the depth. I like the multiple depth.

options that they have with these different mixes and matches. He's fired up for this one. I would hope that Draymond, I mean, he doesn't seem super like he's never going to be regretful. He's like defiantly not regretful about any mistakes he'd make, but I don't know that he's going to have the same kind of season like that. And then you just kind of plug Steph in here again. So I think when you look at that run over the last 50 games, that's what they talked themselves into. It's a pretty big sample size. Yeah. So I'm going over.

House, one of the reasons I went over and the over is 43 and a half is because of the depth that he just mentioned. Yeah. They go 12 deep. What's interesting is in that ringer 100 exercise, they only had two guys for me in the, uh, two guys, Draymond and Curry. Well, and then Pojemski maybe has a chance to play himself in there. I couldn't quite put Kaminga in there, but, um,

But when you think they're starting Draymond, Kamingo, Wiggins, Podzemski, Curry, they're bringing in slow-mo off the bench. Looney. Jackson Davis. Melton. Heald. Jackson Davis. Moody. Gary Payton II. I think you need to think this way in the regular season. Or the third. Either one. I thought it was the second. I'm just kidding. I thought this really helped the Celtics last year.

giving guys nights off and then having people come in who could actually like hold the fort. The Warriors are gonna be the best example of this. They're just deep. And I think you need to be deep in 2024.

House, where do you stand? I agree with the idea of the depth. The depth doesn't really blow me away. A couple of guys have been at a couple of places, haven't really distinguished themselves. Everybody's waiting for that, right? Buddy Heald. Everybody's waiting for Buddy Heald to really be that guy that's knocking down 6-3. What happened the last two years with Buddy Heald? Why couldn't he get off the bench? I like him in theory so much more than the basketball. Those Sixers games, we were like, dude. And he had to won after everybody was so frustrated that he didn't seem like he wanted to shoot.

Do you think Buddy Hield's agent called the Sixers or just was like, yeah, I don't even need to call. He did the token call? Yeah. Hey, it's Bob. Hey, Daryl. Check it in. I know it wasn't a great season for Buddy, but you know, if you want to talk about a deal.

Golden State's an under for me because I don't think Steph's going to play 74 games. It's just that simple. I mean, I love Steph. I want to see him play as much basketball as possible. I hope he plays. But they have no margin for error if he doesn't play. None. There's no backup plan. No, they're screwed. Kaminga is balling out. Congratulations. My big question with this team was,

Did they find a younger, deeper, happier version of themselves? Because I don't think last year, last two years were not exactly like super happy. And they had a lot of guns for hire and just weird kinds of. I don't know if I pick them against anybody in the playoffs. Right. But all we care about is regular season. Their record is. Yeah. They don't make the playoffs two of the last four years. Yeah.

The bigger question to me is, is this just a trade machine team? They couldn't get a deal that they like this summer. They put together a lot of assets and they're just open for business, really starting Thanksgiving. Who wants what they have? Well, they have a bunch of picks. Okay. It would be Kaminga continuing to improve and then he's in the deal with... He's the centerpiece of the deal with picks. Yeah, and expiring contracts and...

I'm not talking Zach Levine level. Obviously, they weren't interested in Ingram. But if an actual star becomes available... Well, they tried the Paul George thing, but I just don't think there was ever a fit there. And I think there was a bunch of teams that tried on Lowry that were offering real things. And then it didn't happen. But it would have to be somebody like... And can we stop with the Steph LeBron stuff that they're going to play together at some point? That doesn't really...

They just did. It was fun. We just watched it. It was the Olympics. They're not playing together professionally. Steph got hosed in the MVP. Maybe. Warriors playoffs, minus 102. No. Plus 120 is the no. Yeah, plus... Playing game is plus 140, Rosillo. This team looks very playing. I hate the playing game because it keeps getting rid of Steph. Right. It's fucking stupid.

You know, like, oh, great. You want 10 playoff teams? Yeah. Expand the playoffs to 10 so the Warriors can get in? I'm trying to think now if I look at it again. Golden State wouldn't even have been in the playoffs last year. So I think it was, was it 22 when I was at home? And I went, cool, now Steph's not in the playoffs. Awesome. Yeah, I think it was 22. That was the Lakers game. Yeah.

Over for me, over for Russillo, under for House. Under 43 and a half for me. Absolutely, positively. And that leads us to the Los Angeles Lakers right after this break. The NBA is back and FanDuel is America's number one sports book and they want you to catch up on all the action because right now FanDuel is giving everyone three months of NBA League Pass. All you have to do to catch every tip off from Buzzer Beater is place any $5 bet

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Terms, restrictions, embargoes apply. Limit one pass per customer. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. From tip-off to hoisting the trophy, celebrate every moment of the WNBA Finals with a Michelob Ultra in hand. The WNBA is so hot, we just launched a Ringer WNBA show podcast.

Yeah, that's happening. You know what goes well with it? Michelob Ultra. The taste, super smooth. Low calories and carbs. Why not save on calories if you're drinking a good beer? I like to keep it nice and cold. It's just really good. And you got the WNBA finals, like all kinds of crazy matchups. Might have the two best teams in the league playing in round two.

It's going to be amazing. We'll see how far Kate and Clark and goes. You're not going to want to miss a moment. Stock up on Michelob Ultra for the WNBA finals. Michelob Ultra, superior light beer. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2024 Anheuser-Busch. Michelob Ultra registered light beer, St. Louis, Missouri. This episode is brought to you by Buffalo Wild Wings Go. Takeout and delivery from Buffalo Wild Wings is now Buffalo Wild Wings Go. And for a limited time, you can get 10 free boneless wings from Buffalo Wild Wings Go when you

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minus 110 for the playoffs plus 135 for the play-in they added jj reddick as a new coach they added dalton connect they lost in witty they lost prince it's pretty much the same team except the coach changed that's somebody else who you got well go coloco yeah that arizona kid big guy i liked him a couple years ago throwing coloco so jj wants to shoot more threes will this work

They were incredibly lucky last year. So they're 47 and 35. They were expected 42 and 40. So they played over that. This is a super easy one for me. Incredible. Anthony Davis here back on the map. LeBron makes it through all the way healthy. The fact that they got that from those two guys and they still are just kind of an afterthought. LeBron had his best shooting year probably ever from three. Incredible. I'm not banking on that again. So it's an under. It's easy.

How's it's so effing low. Forty two and a half is so goddamn low. But one of the two guys goes down. Got it. Seventy one for LeBron last year. Seventy six for Anthony Davis. Seventy six games for Anthony Davis last year.

Well, Redick does want Davis to be shooting more threes. Does that help? Does that keep him on the court? If Davis is shooting threes, they were eighth and three point percentage last year, but they only took 31 threes a game. Yeah. So on paper, you're like, well, shoot more. And well, but so they're playing Davis who shot, I think 27% from three last year, Vanderbilt who can't shoot camera to shoot, can't shoot wood, who can't shoot. And Gabe Vincent, who only really had one decent three point shooting here.

And then LeBron was career high. And then Russell was like, cool, can I shoot more threes? So I can shoot eight? That sounds great. Could I be like Steph? I don't think it's going to work. And I just think it's a team that doesn't make sense to me. The 33 games that Russell, Reeves, Rui, LeBron, and AD were the starting five, they went 23-10.

So that's your case for this team. And, God, 42.5 is so goddamn low. So you're going to go. The AD three-point thing, I don't know if that's kind of the Royal Jelly deal or the old...

Sean Marion thing with Dan Tony where Dan Tony would just be like, as soon as you catch it, let it fly. It actually just made Marion a better shooter because it was something you never, it was never a bad idea for him to shoot. So I don't know if that's, I have a hard time believing it's going to be that freewheeling as the seven seconds are left. Phoenix Suns here, but Davis hasn't been able to hit it from the outside now since New Orleans. There's only one case for the over for me because I think this, I actually think this team's going to be in the mid to high 30s.

I just don't think, especially with how deep the West is LeBron, his age, the fact that he's, you know, he's going to miss 25, 26 games. Cause that's just what's been happening in the last few years. Except for not last year. He played 71. Davis getting, he's going to be 40. I don't, I mean, did he look slow to you in the Olympics? If he plays that, well, they, it was six games in the Olympics. The games are 40 minutes.

That's the thing. And I even fell for it during the Olympics. Like it was a little bit of fool's gold where you, you had to play six Olympic games and those guys hadn't played basketball in 10 months and they were just working on their bodies in shape. And then it was this brief sprint. This is an 82 game season in a really good league. That's as deep as it's ever been. I think it's a lot to ask to run everything through LeBron at his age at this point.

I went over on them the last two years. I don't see it this year. They barely squeaked that over last year. It was a miracle. So the only case for it, Russolo, is that they don't have their pick. Their first-round pick goes to New Orleans. They have no incentive to be like, oh, LeBron's hurt. I'm not even thinking about that, though. Yeah, but I'm just saying they have to actually compete the whole year. There's no reason not to. It's simply you're not getting the same AD LeBron participation. That's all it is. Totally fine. I'll go under. I'm under.

I thought you were going over. 42 or 40. It's such a low number. It's absurd. But how do you forecast 147 games again out of those two guys? If they were in the East, would they be an eight seed for you guys? Yeah, I think so. Against like Atlanta, Miami? I still don't think they, I would have Miami over them in the East. Oh God, that's disrespectful. Well, we'll talk about that. That's very disrespectful. All right, we're all going under. Russell, is this a Zach Levine panic trade waiting to happen? 43 million this year. Ron's always liked him.

So, yes. I think it's going to be really aggressive, like the passive-aggressive. It's going to be super passive-aggressive. LeBron, if he's putting it together and there are a few games out or wherever they are and they own their picks and people thought that was going to happen this summer. Yeah. I just don't understand why you'd be – if LeBron were 30, I'd be giving in to him. I'd do whatever he wants. I'd draft his kid. But I don't understand the purpose of like, let's do whatever this guy wants at 40 years old, even though he's pushed the boundaries of what we think is possible. Yeah.

you know, they're going to hit a dangerous spot with the Laker fans because you can't really mortgage anything else. We've already seen that the ceiling of this team is what it is. The,

Teams around them are getting better. I don't know. I don't know if it's an ESPN. I don't understand. Like, I'll see a clip pop out like it did me like so-and-so doesn't like their championship. And I'm like, why are you getting what it is? No one's even thinking about that anymore. There's a separate league with OKC in Minnesota and Dallas and the Celtics and the Knicks. Like, this team would have no chance in a series against them. Yeah. No serious person talks about the Lakers with a playoff run. Well, ESPN will. It's probably leading NBA today to day.

Well, ESPN let a guy who no longer works for them hijack the first game of the goddamn NBA Finals with Laker news about a head coach that never was going to effing land there. But great, great job. So, yeah, that's definitely the...

let our perspective be colored by ESPN's editorial decisions. House is really letting them have it. Were you in the PA program in the late 90s? Jesus. I was so upset. It was the NBA finals and they're doing a car wash of like, well, we're really going to put the Connecticut coach to the test to be the potential coach of the Lakers. Get the F out of here. Jesus. I just want to watch the finals. I want to watch good teams play. Well,

The Lakers won't be one of them and neither will be this next team. The Los Angeles Clippers over 37 and a half. I feel like that's dropped. I think that was higher before Kawhi was 38 and a half. It was Kawhi. I was like, yeah, I don't know. You can be ready opening night. I don't know. When does it start again? October 23rd. He's like trying to make plans with me. It's just like, Oh, that's this year. We're doing that. Yeah.

Like, wasn't there a lockout? Yeah, we're having dinner after. We are? 12-1 for the division, plus 235 to make the playoffs, plus 185 for the play-in. And last year, they were 51-31. They lost Paul George. They lost Plumlee. They added Derek Jones, Chris Dunn, Nick Batum. Can you imagine having season tickets for these guys?

It looks like an incredible stadium. And I think getting to watch the West, you go to that stadium. I'm back. I'm back to why I got the tickets in the first place. It's going to be going for the other teams, but the stadium is in town. Let's go. The stadium all by itself. I think the way it looks, the reports so far, it seems like you've already gone. My, uh, the guy I shared tickets with went yesterday and was sending me videos. I was like, that looks fucking amazing. I haven't been, can't wait. Are you going tomorrow night? I'm not. Thursday? No. Why do you want to go?

Into it? I'm tempted. You guys should go. I don't know. The stadium is the thing. Tell me, because I have to leave now to get there in time. Yeah. Ways to stay in 26 hours. I've been boycotting London football. So I'm, I'm like, yeah, I like it. Um, all right. Here's the season ticket package other than the arena.

An aging high-usage James Harden. Probably my least favorite player to watch in person of all the good players. I don't know that there's a player more excited about this upcoming season. It's like Kawhi. Take your time. Limping Kawhi, a bunch of role guys, and they have no first-round pick because they don't control the draft for the next five years. Yeah. Wow. It's brutal. It's so bad. It's brutal. But the stadium's going to be amazing.

And they basically chose James Harden over Paul George, which is just bizarre. I thought the Harden number was a little high, and I still can't believe they didn't do a 4-0 of Paul George, but...

i could also see them being entirely over this thing that has not worked out even though at the time if you're trading all of this for paul george also guarantees you getting kawhi leonard and free agency you do it you just do it like i don't think it's we said at the time you gotta do it that's going like you shouldn't have done it after the fact like just think you gave all that up to then get paul george and then to have all of this stuff happen but the quiet part of it it hasn't been right since toronto and

Uh, it's really unfortunate because it, it looked like they finally executed the plan. You hope to be able to do like one time. They sent Kawhi home from the Olympic team. They were like, let's make up an excuse. You have, you can't be in the team. You can't be in the team. You're not healthy. And then the preseason started and it's like, ah, still not healthy, but he's going to be ready for opening night. And then it's like, no, he's actually not going to be ready opening night either. Uh, where's season tickets for 2024, 25? Uh,

Draft is what we don't need to do a draft because there's only five teams. Okay. But who do you have first? Who would you want to have season tickets for the least? This is the easiest question. Yeah. It's obviously Washington. Wizards are in this draft. I had them as well. Yeah. Is Brooklyn too? Well, where you, you were just there. There's good pizza places there, right? Really good food. So you got any pizza? No, I don't think Brooklyn's too. Okay. Ben's roster.

I'm just saying season tickets. I have to go to the stadium. I have to see this team for the next six months. I'm going for the other teams. I think it would be Portland. I think it's Charlotte. Oh, that's a great point. Oh, I kind of like Charlotte. Oh, we're going to have a fun conversation. I wouldn't mind going to see Charlotte. Yeah, but you can't say season tickets and then go, but there's a lot of golf in the area. Like it's about the basketball. I'm not talking about that. I'm saying I'm going to the game. Do I like watching the players in the court?

So Brooklyn, you want it? The pizza's so good that you're going to watch 41 of those games? I had Brooklyn second. Okay. We have Brooklyn second. We're on the same page. I have the Clippers third. I'd rather see Chicago than the Clippers. Be like, Josh Giddey, Kobe White. You do want to see Kobe White. I think Toronto needs to be mentioned. Oh. Wow. Over Portland? He went right there. I have a lot invested emotionally in Portland. Okay. So if I were there rooting on my guys. So you'd have Toronto fourth? Yeah.

It's freezing. Yeah, that's a good point. All right. Toronto fourth. Like, oh, cool. Quickly took 27 shots. Scotty Barnes' crunch time numbers are getting better. I love Scotty Barnes. Apologies to Jay Skeets. So Washington, Brooklyn, Clippers, Toronto, Chicago, Portland would be our bottom six.

The point is the Clippers are in the top three. They are. But you're going for the other teams again. And just personally, he might be a nice guy, James Harden.

Might be a sweetheart of a guy. Might be a great friend. People love him. Good family guy. Great ringer contact. I'm sure he's a great teammate. He has. I just don't like watching him play basketball. And we've been watching him now for almost two decades. And the fact that this offense is now going to revolve around the heliocentric shit. Fourth and MVP. But he's 35 years old. It sounds horrible. It sounds horrible. I'm excited about it.

He just made a statement where he was like, everybody said I couldn't do it, but look what Luka just did. I saw that. It was like somehow Luka copied him and that meant because Luka made it to the NBA Finals, Harden was always right. It reminded me of when part of my take brought in Skip Bayless and Skip complimented himself three times within 45 seconds. He thought he was actually complimenting them, but it was like, you guys are the next. Well, him and Stephen A created that show.

They created two guys talking to each other. It's fucking unheard of. Nobody had thought about that before. It's unbelievable. Under, and it's a lock for me, the Clippers, 37 and a half. I think they're going to be awful. What do you have, House? It's an under. I'm not sure whether or not it's a lock, but it's an easy under. Under, under, under. What do you have? Under. There's no way I'm touching that over. That's a healthy number. You know what I mean? I understand that Vegas has already baked in all the different...

variables here, but there's a funny Tyloo thing too, where people go, well, Tyloo, I mean, he's an amazing coach. Tyloo's 312 and 217 as a coach. His coach way less than people remember. He went 0-6 for the 2019 Cavs and got fired.

The 22 team went 42 and 40. Like if you don't have the roster, you don't have the roster. It doesn't. Yeah. You can't be like, oh, Ty Lue will make them good. It's like, all right, if you make some good, there'll be 41 and 41. Put Mills here on the blue line. So we're going under for all of those. So I had for my playoff teams, OKC Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, Denver, and Memphis slash Sacramento is the top six, just for the record. So we're going to move to the East.

And we're going to do the central is the second part of this podcast. We're going to do it right after this break. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. You can now get almost anything you need for game day delivered with Uber Eats. What do we mean by almost? Well, you can't get a running back delivered, but you can get baby back ribs delivered. A field goal, that's a no, but a honey butter dinner roll. Oh yeah, that's a yes. A six pack of abs, definitely no. A six pack of seltzers, Uber Eats can get you that.

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All right, come back. We're going to do the Central. We were just congratulating ourselves during the break for not having the Brian and James conversation. I've never been prouder of the three of us. The Milwaukee Bucks are our first team in the Central. Their over-under is 50 and a half. They are minus 105 for the division. Speaking of nepotism. They are 18 and one, best record, plus 850 for the one seed. And what they did this off-season, House, they added...

seven eight nine guys they added prince and right and trent who i think is actually going to start for them they're a little deeper my take is they're too old but i'll let you i'll give you the four and then i'll weigh in after what you're taking the bucks yeah it's an under for me uh i think they are just running it back gary trent's already hurt middleton um is hurt there's you know that we're in the the the middleton when is he due back you know how effective is he going to be

conversation already and you know

Dame, it all really boils down to Dame. And he was kind of there for every other game. He's every other game Dame. We talked about this on the pod last year when you become like a once a week, I'm really good guy in the NBA. And they usually happen to be in the mid-30s. You're not talking total games. You're talking output. No, I'm just saying. Because he played 70 games. No, no, no. I'm saying once a week he puts up 36 and he looks really good. And then there's that other game when he's like six for 19.

Yeah, that. Yeah, he was in a better spot because he could just put up a million shots and never had any expectation. And I mean, it's cool that he wanted to go somewhere else. But Portland, it was actually safer for him as opposed to some of the limitations. Like there's still when you talk about just pure shot making.

He's on a very short list of guys, even at this age in the NBA, where I think you feel like that firepower is what you want in the playoffs. But the age on this man is starting to get scary. And a lot of these draft picks, granted, it's not like they were drafting super high, but I don't know which ones I feel good about. Lopez 36 season 17 Middleton 33 season 13 Dame 34 season 13 Giannis 30 season 12 Portis 30 season 10

Wright is 32 season 10 and Connaughton's 31 season 10. I was trying to think of other old teams that did well. And I, my mind drifted back to that, that Celtics run in 2012, basically that 2010 to 2012 range where the team got old. Pierce was at the tail end of being,

peak Pierce, but Garnett had the knee surgery. Wasn't the same Ray Allen has moved to a different point in his career. And they were, it was just hard for them to get it done during the regular season. It was that one year they were like 25 and 25. Then they were able to flip the switch in the playoffs. 2010, they made the finals 2012. They came close to making the finals. Feels like that's more of a buck season to me, but I think the league sees it. Like they left Giannis off on Christmas.

I think because they didn't think they were one of the best 12 teams in the league. That seems ridiculous, though, because Giannis is the main reason. I felt like even in the end of last year and going into the playoffs, he gets hurt at the very end. He misses the entire playoffs. Lillard's hurt. He only plays four of his playoff games. You were thinking MVP for him at one point.

Yeah, I still think I voted him second. Yeah. Did I vote him second? I think I did. But they were 49 and 33 last year and he played the whole season. Right. I don't want to be disrespectful of him, but when I went through and looked at all of this stuff, I think of the top 10 guys in their two deep, there's only one guy in his 20s. Yeah. So I was thinking about

If I'm building a team that I want to at least succeed during the regular season, forget the playoffs. I want to be able to guard point guards, and I want to be able to guard swings like the Tatum types. This team can't really do either because the middle 10 has not been the same since that finals run. And it just seems like his knees are... He's at a different point in his career. He's been a minus or a zero on defense. Really for two years now. His turnover rate is up. His free throw rate is down. So he's just...

when you're looking for aging numbers, even if he can get it going, like, on a certain night. Right. But there will be numbers going, okay, he's not grabbing as many rebounds, turning all, he's not getting to the free throw line as much. It's not the same guy. Just stuff you would expect an older player to be like, I don't want to do all these things. But defensively, like, the way they match up against Boston on the wings, like,

Like, that's why when we start talking about the rest of, like, the East and Boston, there's some teams where I go, I don't think you have an answer for what Boston has. Where there's one team in particular where, like, at least I can understand your approach and who you would throw at some of these dudes. And Dame is... He's played 88 games the last two years, too. Come on. Dame, D-minus defender, F-plus, F or an F-minus? What would you go with that? You want to know why I had so bad is because when the sideline...

person starts talking about the person's bad defensive reputation and why he's actually a lot better than people realize that's immediately enough. I always enjoy that. Yeah. He tries harder at that end than he gets credit for. Doc says a lot of people think that Luke Cornett's quicker. So what if this goes badly, House? What if they're 24 and 26 after 50 games? What is Giannis' reaction?

I'm just... I don't think so. You're trying to speak into existence this idea of Giannis. I'm not trying to speak anything into existence. I just think that guy's crazy competitive. He's been super loyal along the way. He has. He has, like, tried to drag the organization along. I think he cares about titles, man. I don't think he wants to be on a shit team that can't guard anybody. Well, he's on one. I know. That's what he's on right now. We'll see. So the best case scenario would be the 2011 maps. Most important ring in the last 10 years.

Giannis? As far as like the conversation around the person being fair or unfair, imagine how different the conversation around Giannis. Well, I guess LeBron won again in 2020. I was going to say that 2016 helped out LeBron and Kyrie, the combo. Kyrie's career is completely different if they don't win game seven, right? Yeah. We're not even... I think that game seven result almost is misleading. Yeah. Yeah.

For him, not LeBron. I don't know where Giannis could go, though, when we talk about, well, he's going to ask out. All right, pick a team. Is he going to go to Brooklyn? Is he going to go to Miami? You're the only one talking about him asking out. I don't think he's going to ask out. I think he's a top four player in the league, and I think his situation is through. If it falls apart, I think it's going to be, you know, the old line that I've used all the time is like, it's usually not the international guys because it's not. It's the American guys that ask out. I mean, eventually, it's going to be the international guys. It almost fell apart last year, just FYI. But Fenasas is not on the team.

Well, he got hurt, though. Him and Gigi Jackson, they ran into each other. Yeah, but he's not on. He's a free agent. Oh, he's literally not on the team? Yeah. Let me double check it, but I'm pretty sure. It did almost fall apart last year. They fired the coach. So if Miami just signed Thanasis? I'm telling you, everybody needs to be on Thanasis alert.

Watch. The Nasus alert. Let's cut that into a social. Make sure he's not on Miami. The Nasus alert. Did Miami sign him? That would be the most Miami thing ever, wouldn't it? Well, dude, the Lakers had the other one. And then as soon as I think Giannis signed his extension, they're like, cut him. So you're under, Rosillo? I'm under. House is under? I want to still stay respectful of Giannis. Me too. By the way, we all went under. I went over on Jokic, but

On Denver, you went under. It's the same situation. I like Denver's team a lot more than Milwaukee's team. I do not. I don't like that. You like Milwaukee's one through nine better than Denver's? I don't think they're going to be able to guard anybody who can get to the basket. Giannis is going to have to guard everybody in the other team at all times. And by the way, Lopez might just hit a different point in his career one of these years, right? He's been in the league forever. Could be this year. Could be this year. He's on the trade block. Here's a team I'm guessing that all of us like, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

They're over under is 48 and a half. I think there's been some action on that. I want to say that was a little lower. They're plus 240 for the division, which I would encourage as a bet for people out there. They're 11 to one for a one seed, which is an interesting hedge against the Celtics. If you think weird Celtics shit's going to happen, new coach, Kenny Atkinson. And more importantly, they brought everyone back. So new coach, healthy Garland Mitchell settled that situation settled. They took care of Mobley.

Why isn't this a 50 plus win team house? I have no idea. I think I don't understand. Like how is this team that go 52 and 30? The aspect of this, especially that is going to be eyeopening is Kenny Atkinson. I think he's going to be incredible with these guys. We loved him in Brooklyn and then Durant and Kyrie showed up and neither of them played that year. They signed there because of the culture. Yeah. Remember? And then they bounced them.

That was my favorite. Joe's like culture. They've done a really good job here with Dinwiddie and D'Angelo Russell and develop these guys like it's good culture. Top ringer hundred. I had Mitchell 13 and then I had the, uh, the Garland Moby, Jared Allen, 45, 47, 51. So four top, four top 51. That, that,

That speaks to the 50 plus win thing. And then, you know, they signed Allen to a really good contract extension that if Mobley, if it's starting to look like maybe he could play center, Allen becomes a really fun trade piece for them. But I don't think they're going to do it. To me, this is a conference winner. I'm not a conference winner, a division winner. I like the plus 240. I love the over. It's a lock for me, Rosillo. What do you got?

Couldn't agree more. Totally aligned on this. I just think when you look at all of those guys together, I would expect it to go over. Their offense is okay. Their defense has been terrific now for two seasons statistically.

They shoot it okay enough. Remember they went 17-1 last year. Yeah. Garland missed 25 games. I think the injuries were kind of fluky with him. And, you know, whatever you want to say about the Mitchell overlap thing, like when they get to the playoffs with those four guys, I'm no longer into it anymore. The spacing isn't good enough. The Mobley-Allen thing is redundant. Sure. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about like, you know, just Mitchell has these stretches during the season where he looks absolutely unstoppable. Yeah.

which is even with his imperfections, why so many teams would have gladly taken him. They end up resigning basically all these guys. So all the speculation, like it should just be a happier team. Um, I think there was doubt with Bickerstaff too, that led into some of the problems they were having. So I,

I'd expect them to be a 50-win team in the East, but the playoff thing is a completely different conversation. Totally agree. And the math is kind of crazy. All of their most important guys missed around 20 games last season. Yeah, yeah. Every one of them. The four most important guys. So we were talking... And they won 48! So I think my three favorite overs are OKC, Phoenix, and Cleveland. Just the three I feel the best about.

And, you know, we've hit the super boost. We've hit three years in a row, I think, for FanDuel. Super boost. So there's an easier one that's OKC 55 plus wins, Phoenix 45 plus, and Cleveland 45 plus. And that's like a little under two to one. That would be the safe one. There's one where we could do OKC 60 plus, Phoenix 45 plus, Cleveland 45 plus. That's a little over four to one.

There's a Mac Daddy one, OKC 60+, Phoenix 50+, Cleveland 45+, plus 713. Or you could throw Cleveland 50+, and go get it to like 10 to 1.

But I haven't decided yet. I like the way it's going to be one of those. I would take the OKC 60 and pull it down just because 60 is such rarefied air, even though I believe in, I mean, not Cleveland. So we could do the OKC 55, Phoenix 45, Cleveland 45, around two to one and get them to boost it. I would be okay with OKC 55, Cleveland 50, Phoenix 50. That's the way I would do it. What do you think? I'd like both those teams at 50 wins. Well, if I like all three of them, you know, uh,

You can't, what was Phoenix 49 and a half in our exercise? No, it's 47 and a half. So you're going to get north of 50. Yeah. Just at 50, right? 50. Yeah. But you get super conservative and do anyway, they have Fando has a bunch of, uh, NBA futures profit boost token. They can do, we're going to do a page. We're going to do a super boost. So keep an eye on all that stuff because, uh,

They are going to have a Bill Simmons NBA futures profit boost tied to this podcast going live Friday, October 18th. Three futures that will be eligible for the boost. So we'll figure that out. But it's going to be, I think those are the three teams, right? OKC, Cleveland, Phoenix. We like those three. Or is there another one you would get excited about? No, because I think the

the payout on it. Yeah. Right. I mean, look, Phoenix, even if we can all sit here saying, Hey, it's going to be over, it's going to be better. They're going to understand they're going to point guard new coach and all these different things. Like they get hurt all the time. Right. So 45 is safer than 50. Oh, okay. Investor conference. It's an investor relations call. It's, it's a double call. I'm so confused. Two names. It's two stocks. Darius Garland stock.

Where are we sitting? Broke his jaw last year. I made so much on it early. You sold? It was just ridiculous. The profit was staring me in my... So you jumped out? No, I didn't get out, but I took some profits. Took some off the table. Took some off. Took some off the table. It's fine. It's smart. If you think it's at a high, you take a little off. You thought he stunk. How dare you? You did. Broke his jaw last year. No, in the beginning. I thought he was a mess. Beginning. I thought he seemed small. I got talked into it. Yeah.

He does disappear sometimes. I'd like to recommend. It's fine. I'm not telling you he's, you know. Can I make a recommendation on the call? Yeah, yeah. I'd like to go back in and buy a little more. Oh, yeah. Like when Spotify was down to like 75. It's like, yeah. When Netflix dropped to 250. Was that after the Markle pod? That was a good one. I'd like to go back in and buy more Garland.

I think he had a fucked up year last year. You've broken jaw and then you have to play basketball. These dips aren't going to buy themselves, Bill. All right, let's go to Evan Mobley.

How are we feeling? He got a giant contract. I loved him when Allen wasn't playing. So is that the answer? That's the reason to buy more stock because ultimately Jared Allen's probably not going to be on this team and Evan Mobley will be the... They're a fucked up team that I like. That's one reason. But what if Mobley and Allen can play together? What if Kenny Atkinson encourages... What if Evan Mobley has been putting up a thousand threes

So that's the thing. Every morning. And we'll know in the first week if he's looking super comfortable. Go ahead, guys. Oh, boy. Are you serious? Like, Mobley's all of a sudden just going to be draining threes up? He's 23 years old. There needed to be some real tangible improvement.

on the ball skills with him to round him out and being like the player we could hope that he would be. It feels like those that's not happening. But I still like what I saw in the Boston series when Allen wasn't out there. So you sold your sock? I don't have the same price target on it that we did three years ago.

My price target was too high. Those guys are incredible. After the stock goes down 30%, be like, you know, it's over here. It's so-and-so investments that we've changed our price target. Like after you lost me 30% of my position. Are you locking down Cleveland over? Yes, it's a lock. 48 and a half. I have it as a lock as well. Absolutely. Not even close. No hesitation or reservation. Priscilla?

I don't think you've locked anything yet. We'll do it at the end of that. End of part three, we'll do it. Okay. Next team, Indiana Pacers. 47 and a half is the number. They won 47 games last year. They made the conference finals. Why wouldn't they be better? Basically brought back the same team, including Siakam, who was there for the full year, but the same team we saw in the playoffs. Here's my question, Marcelo. Are we sure this isn't the everything went great for this team last year team?

Everything went awesome. We're not sure. You did the Atlanta Hawks, basically. Like the fluky conference finals run that we had from Dallas. Took some people by surprise for six weeks. Atlanta's the best example of it because Atlanta talked themselves into thinking that they were in that neighborhood. Portland had one of those against Golden State where they got destroyed by them. Dallas in 22, maybe with Golden State a little bit because it's not the same team, but as far as having Luka. So that one's not as fluky as those other two. I understand your point. The Knicks...

at the end of it, like who's left. They beat Milwaukee without Giannis. They beat the falling apart. Knicks got swept by the Celtics, but the games were a little closer than a sweep. The first game they gave game one away. They actively, it's the single thing that I hold against Halliburton more than anything else. They blew two of those games. Like, yeah, epic. So 41 games of Siakam though, only 41 games.

I thought this was the single hardest over under. Oh, I'm so surprised. I changed my mind on it a hundred times. I'm like the tiniest of tiny unders. I think they go 47 and 35. I couldn't get higher. I couldn't get into the 48, 49, 50 range because I just think a lot of things went right for them last year. So here's why I would distinguish this team from some of those other teams that went on playoff runs and then we didn't really see them being able to hold it up.

Nembhard was an effing revelation in the playoffs. And I don't think he's a flash in the pan. I think that's sustainable. I think that dude can be counted on. When you see that level of execution, that efficiency offensively, that's not an accident. And then Mathren didn't play. Mathren wasn't part of that team that went on that run. And I think he's good. So I think they're deep. The thing they have to do is play some goddamn defense. Yeah.

and it's on Rick Carlisle in this offseason to figure out how they're going to play. And Siakam should help with that. Should. All they need to be is like middle of the road defensively. They need to not be bottom five defensively. They can still play at the pace they play at, and that pace...

is effing badass. They asked Boston, who do you fear in these playoffs? They're like, Indiana, because they play such a unique style. They're a super hard matchup. I'm on the over for this team.

I can't really fight any of that. What do you have for so long? I had the under because McDermott's no longer signed. What? And I went back to the over because I got old friend James Wiseman. There he is. So that's an over for me. There he is. He's only 24. He's just scratching the surface. It's like when Darko ended up on Memphis. And you're like, yeah, Memphis is tapping into something here. Orlando gave up a lottery pick for him.

I don't feel like there was a Rodney Stuckey pick. I don't know. I just thought this was super hard. So I'm against you guys in this one. One thing on Halliburton, glad has brought him up. I was thinking they don't do the NBA the same way where we don't have to pick two guards, even though I still do it because I, I like to stay a little traditional, but I was thinking about how hard the NBA crop is going to be this year, just on paper.

Because Luka counts as a guard, SGA, Jalen Brunson, Curry, Edwards, Mitchell, Booker, Fox, Halliburton, John Morant. And then you even go into this Kyrie, Jamal Murray, Tyrese Maxey, Harden, Damian Lillard, Mikael Bridges group. It might be the deepest list of A-list guards that we've had.

Like, I can't believe I'm looking at this list. I had Halbert as my ninth best guard heading into the season. Halbert was really good last year. Remember how good he was before the all-star break, which I also think is part of the conversation over that we're having. Yeah. I think is worth at least bringing up 43 games, pre all-star 22, four, 12, 49, 40 shooting splits. His sister just out of control at that point.

eight threes a game and then you know he's got the groin thing he was missing time we didn't know when he was coming back and the shooting went from 40 to 30 percent from three the assist went down the points went down you know i'm changing there was going to be less shots first change the occam but i love that house brought up the mathron part too because like look maybe mathron's not a long-term two guard small four where you just pencil in for 20 but when that guy comes in second unit is just attack attack attack

And I think they still want to see if they have something to walk or the lottery pick from Houston. Maybe that's why McDermott's not on the roster anymore. And in the GM survey too, they were like, who's the best, who runs the best offensive system? And it was overwhelming. It was Rick Carlisle. I changed my mind over TJ McConnell's on this team. Nem heart turned into good. I don't, it feels like they're trying to, why is it so low? Halliburton, uh, at the Olympics was incredible.

And all of his like Caitlin Clark stuff. Halliburton and his girlfriend are friends with Caitlin and her boyfriend. They got their whole thing. I just like, I think he's a good like. I'm going under now. What was that? That was, I want to make sure Tommy Alter still listen to the pod segue. No, I mentioned it because I like the glue concept of it, right? No, he was, he was an awesome teammate. You want your leader to be a glue guy. Back to over. I didn't understand. I'm going. That's all.

You don't like Caitlin Clark? They signed Wiseman and you were back in. All right. I'm changing my pick. I'm going over. You guys talk me into it. I just want to be right. I want us all to be right. Chicago Bulls. Yes. Under. I hate this team. I mean, I like Giddy. Kind of. Lonzo. I'm thrilled. He's going to be playing the first game since January 14th of 22. Or is it... Wait. Is it 21? I had him in the depth chart with a question mark next to him because...

I don't know if he's going to play, but I hope he does. Oh, that's right. Yeah, it's going to be almost three years. Yeah. They re-signed Patrick Williams, I think maybe because they heard Presti liked him. Is that true? No, I couldn't believe that contract. I mean, he hasn't really even done anything yet. I thought it was awful. I'm excited. This team, this is a team stuck in something that's not good.

A lot of Bozellas buzz. House was talking about him yesterday. He made me go Google him. I did go to 10-1 rookie of the year. House Peterman for rookie of the year. Still have some Daylon Terry shares. I just think that Bozellas is going to get run. Like when you look at the rookies that are going to get minutes with this lineup, with this team, with this...

I think the kid's going to get some shine. They have a top 10 protected draft pick. But here's the thing that makes it hard for the over-under. You can be among the 10 worst teams and still win 30 or 31 games. If you look at last season. I don't know if that's going to be the case this year, though. Also, when you're top 10...

You can't really fuck around. You really have to get in the bottom eight. I guess. Okay. Bottom eight is like 28 and down. Is it worth it? Cause I did the five worst wind totals for the last five years and it's higher than you think it is. For what? The eight spot? No, the worst, the five worst wind totals. Okay. So who had the least amount of wind? So last year it was 14, 15, 21, 21, 22.

two years ago 17 22 22 27 33 33 wins was the fifth lowest yeah yeah right that's why okay i think it's important to do these just as we start getting some of these i agree

Three years ago, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25. Four years ago, 17, 20, 21, 22, 22. And then it was a disaster five years ago, 15, 19, 19, 20, 20. Some of that has to do with how top-heavy the league is, though. I try to figure out— It feels like the league is top-heavier this year than usual. When we've done this, you know, now for years at least with me being invited into it, which I appreciate.

I've had overwhelming theories on how to handle the bad teams. And you go, okay, well, if Cooper Flag is the prize, then it's going to get really weird here at the end. But I thought that was going to be the same thing with Wemba Nyama. And it still felt like it took too long. Tanking doesn't feel as extreme today as it was years ago. And that's probably partly due with the playing game and flattening the odds a little bit on the lottery.

39-43 last year, and House made the key point. Top 10 protected pick owed to the Spurs. I'm taking the over because I think that they are going to win 28 games. Yeah, yeah, right. I mean, sometimes with the explanation of the over, it's like, what's wrong with you? And you're like, no, I still think they're terrible. Yeah, they are terrible. So you're going over? Yeah. No, I'm going under. They've got a million guards. I feel like the Levine part of it, that boy, I mean, he just...

Tough summer for Zach. I don't think, did he not iron? Didn't have the investor relations call for Zach. So this team, the last nine years was 310 and 401, which is six worst. I finally was able to get StatMuse to give me that after I searched it nine different ways. Are you sure it's right? It seems right. You need to check it. Seems right. I swear to God, StatMuse is just a huge joke.

They're just back there in like a room. Just fucking with us? Like a guy just asked for the Celtics home and away record in the 60s. Like, tell him that Steve Carlton had 40 complete games in a row. That'd be amazing. If it was all the wrong information. It's... I don't understand where this is going. How many championships have the Bulls won? 18. This may not be what you want, but...

And then they push the subscriber button where it's like, for StatMuse subscribers, get all of this. Andres Galarraga was originally from. Like, what the fuck is this? Anyway, after this year, because they're going to be bad, they're probably going to be the bottom three for the last 10 years. But I was looking at the Reinsdorfs, because this is now year 10 of the we don't really give a shit plan. They paid the luxury tax once. They haven't won a playoff series since 2015.

The Last Dance was probably their highlight of the 2020s. Just that showing on TV. Good job. They have six titles. They put those out. But their franchise has either quadrupled or quintupled in value over the last 10 years. There you go. They might be geniuses. There you go. Maybe they're playing this perfectly. Like, why pay the tax if you don't care about the team? Your franchise is going up anyway. You have the illusion of hope every year with something. This year, it's like, hey, we got Josh Giddy. We got Kobe White.

This is the family that owns the White Sox. Right. Hello. Good point. Yeah. They give zero shits. Well, Levine is untradeable unless the Lakers panic. And I thought Russillo just made a key point. It's players that you would like separately, but maybe not together. Like Kobe White with Giddy, with Levine. I'm not sure I'm excited about that. There's just so many guards. I don't understand. Yeah, it's a lot of... Levine was miserable. Maybe he'll be thrilled that DeRozan's gone, not taking his late game.

Possessions. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe a little overtaste for you there. Billy Dobbins. I was talking about it. I was like, boy, his uniform wasn't iron. You can't even get the wrinkles out for picture day. We like Bud Zealous, though. Maybe. Maybe. Yeah. I mean, he was fun. He's raw. He was a fun draft prospect to watch. But if he can't shoot it, he's toast. Yeah. There was some interesting training camp quotes from the

coaches and teammates that they seemed unusually high on him. You know, I know they have to say whatever about the rookies, but they were kind of like, like Donovan after the first practice was, he's going to play for us. Oh. He was just like, just point blank. Okay. Just, I'm going to solve this now. There's going to be no G League for this guy. He's playing for us. So we'll see. Uh-oh. It's a Josh Giddey investor relations call. Wow. I'm not here. Okay.

Not interested. He's not subscribed to the call. No, I don't want to talk to the investors. About Josh Giddey? Yeah, I just, I don't know. Oh, you're going to play dumb because you bought so much Josh Giddey stock? Yeah. We're still in there with the only two people who liked that trade last summer. We went all in on it. And I liked it for both teams. I just thought, I'm in on Josh Giddey still. Yeah. I think he's a good, I think he's a good basketball player. And I don't want to take the under because I was actually rooting for them to be fun to watch so that we would be right about the Giddey trade. But,

That 28.5 is too high for me. So I am going under. Well, it's 27.5. Does that change your mind? Is that what it is right now? I thought so. No, it went up to 28.5. Are you kidding me? Yeah. Hold on a second. No, it's 28.5. Maybe I have to get out of this. That's it? So 29?

I'll stay in. 29 is still pretty crappy. What do you mean 29? That's what it is now? I understand. I got you. Over. And then I get rewarded for my commitment. Yeah, it's 28 and a half. Yeah, I get it. 28 and a half. I'm going to stick with my over. Stat Muse. What is the Chicago over under? Here's the weather in Tampa. 42. All right. So house is over. Russell and I are under. Last but not least, the Detroit Pistons. Their over under is 25 and a half. They have a new head coach, JB Bickerstaff.

They won 14 games last year. They added Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, and the one and only Tobias Harris, who finally is unleashed. Right system, right time. Plus 980 for the playoffs. Just throwing it out there. Cunningham, after the All-Star break, 25-5-8, 39% from three.

I was going to have an investor relations call, but I think we're good. I don't think we need one about. It got really scary when there was that ringer piece from Zach on Cade. I'm going to wait. He's a super inefficient, high volume guy. Like I hate these players. And then things got a lot better, but not great. I can't believe this team won one less game with this roster than the wizards did. Monty Williams, uh,

This has got to be one of the worst coaching jobs. And he sounded as if during the season, he was surprised about players on his own team. It was a robbery. Yeah. Like, apparently he didn't want it. It was like Den of Thieves 2. Monty Williams goes to Detroit and just steals $80 million from them. Like, think about it. We're closing games and killing him. Who's not in the league. Who's not in the league as a lottery pick. Over Ivy. Ivy.

Yeah, we were talking about it when it happened. I like the over 25 and a half. Love the over. I think this team's going to be frisky. All of us. Me too. They're trying. Would these acquisitions show that they're trying? Right? If you just go through the team. Is there a better point guard depth chart than Cade, Sasser, Ivy, Wendell Moore? It's pretty good. Solid. Maybe the best in the league? Listen.

Thompson, I thought had some interesting moments last year. He's at least a rebounding defense guy. Fontecchio was so good. Utah was like, we just got to fucking get rid of this guy. He's going to fuck up our draft pick. Bobby Clintman, finally in the league. Ron Holland,

Big Stu? They have Fred Vinson. They hired Fred Vinson to come in and help these guys learn how to shoot. Lamar Stevens gives you solid minutes. Well, last year we were watching them going, who put this team together and were they drunk? Why did they just have all these big guys and guards and no shooting? And what made anyone think in 2023, this was the type of team you want to put together? Now they have shooting.

They figured out at least we got to just play Ivy and Cunningham together and let them figure it out. They have rebounding. Their center is one of the, I think, four best rebounding title odds this year. And then Harris, I don't know. I'm kind of rooting for him. I don't know why. Mainly because it would enrage Brasilo if he scored like 24 a game for Detroit the first month. I am happily over on this. So, Brasilo, you're over.

And house is over. I wouldn't be mad at Tobias Harris scoring buckets. I feel like Philly didn't even appreciate him. That was tough for the Tobias Hive. It was tough with the take charge. Those, uh, the, Hey, he didn't take it in charge since like 2019. Remember that? Keep the game moving. I loved it. Less whistles. So out of Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Washington, I think I liked Detroit the most out of those five. Say it again.

Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, Washington, and I'll throw in Charlotte too. Chicago might be, even though I went under on it. I don't know. That was a reach. Last night when I went to bed, I didn't know what to do with this number, but it's just the last ditch effort of the Cade, Ivy, Wiseman. I'm just kidding. Wiseman's on the Pacers. All right. So here's what we did.

Phoenix, 47 and a half. We all went over. I made it a lock. Anyone else want to lock that down or we're going to wait? All right. House is locking it down too. I don't have to wait. Okay. Lock. You're locking it too? Yep. Okay. Wow. So we had that. We had the Sacramento Kings, 44 and a half. We all went over on that. Golden State Warriors, 43 and a half. Russell and I went over. House went under. The Lakers.

42 and a half. I really want to put a lock on it, but I don't want to waste one. We all went under on that. And then Clippers, 37 and a half. We all went under and I'm putting a lockdown on that too. Because I don't think that team's going to be very good. And it's going to be sad. And then in the Central, Milwaukee, 50 and a half. We all went under. Cleveland,

48 and a half. We went over and me and house locked that one down. You want to lock that down? Um, I'll give you my lock list when we're through it all. Okay. I kind of like changed my mind in the course of today. Totally fine. Indiana 47 half. You guys talked me into it. We all went over Chicago 28 and a half under for me under for Rosillo over, uh,

for house. And then finally, Detroit. Over 25 and a half, we all said, that sounds great. So there you go. All right, that's it for part two. Thanks again to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti for producing. Don't forget, you can watch all of these episodes on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And get ready for part three because that's coming very soon. See you in part three.

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