A Resurgent Rodgers, Million-Dollar Picks, Hottest Takes, and Fantasy Surprises With Joe House, Steven Ruiz, and Craig Horlbeck
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We're going to talk to Joe House. We're putting him at the top today because we're going to react to Pat's Jets and then we're going to do Billion Dollar Picks. And as you know, it's late night house. All bets are off. There might've been a couple of beers. He's going to be a little groggy. We decided not to go live on YouTube with late night house because it might also double his drunk house. But anyway, he's coming out. We're going to do Million Dollar Picks and then playing five favorites after that with Steven Ruiz. Five hottest takes after two weeks. He has an absolute doozy.

about a certain coach. I don't want to spoil it, but man, was it good. And then Craig Horlbeck, our friend who produces the Rewatchables podcast for me is on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show and he's going to do his five favorite fantasy subplots after two weeks. So that's the podcast. Let's bring in our friends from Pro Jam. ♪

All right, we are taping this a little after 8 o'clock Pacific time. Just watch the Patriots get absolutely annihilated by the Jets. Joe House is here. We're going to do million-dollar picks, but let's talk Pats Jets first. The big takeaway for me, House, Rodgers looked kind of like Rodgers. Like, there was stuff he was doing in this game that was just different than the first two games. The way he was moving around, the quick throws, the timing. I just thought he looked really, really good. Didn't you think?

I did, and this is the version of the Jets that had some of us investing in Jets futures this preseason. Jets as potential AFC East division winners. Is this late night house or drunk house? I can't, or both. I don't, two bourbons, you tell me. Two bourbons, what's that? What's that count?

I'm not slurring it. I'm not like slurring my words, but a couple of bourbons in. I should have promo drunk house better. Anyway, your point, your point being we believed in the Jets. I had them with the AFC. So did you, right? Yeah. This is the version that we kind of imagined, right? This is what our minds. I saw. It was the combination of an effective and efficient offense with multiplicity, right?

Tight end. Conklin plays. Brees Hall plays. Nobody knew that Braylon Allen was going to be this good, but he is this good. Garrett Wilson got his touches. Aaron Rodgers moving out of the pocket. Aaron Rodgers on the run. Super efficient on the run, Aaron Rodgers. And then on the defensive side, just a complete shutdown of a one-dimensional offense. Oh, I didn't know we had a dimension. Yeah.

The Patriots actually ran the ball pretty good. What was the one to mention? The running, I guess? The Patriots ran the ball pretty good. I mean, Ramondre had over 20 carries in both of the first two games. Of course, I lost by over 16 and a half carries prop for tonight because the Patriots had to move off way from the run basically after the first series. The Pats did not get to 20 minutes time of possession in this game. Yeah. They can't block.

This was the Patriots team that I thought I was getting in August when I had all the unders and I was making them one of my locks. And it didn't seem like they were going to be able to block. Tonight, they couldn't block. Brissette can't throw the ball more than six yards. The Jets, for some reason, the Bengals and Seahawks didn't fully realize this. And the Jets were like, we're moving everybody up.

We might be sending blitzes. We might not, we're not afraid of you throwing over the top against us. Cause you won't, everything's going to be short and we're just going to like completely collapse your line, which they did. And, uh, this Drake May question that the Pats have, he came in for the last drive. I was as nervous as I've been since I was watching my kids play on like jungle gym equipment. Um, just, it was like, they're going to hand the ball off with the right, not out. He's just taking big hits. Um,

And the question is, do you play him? When do you play him? Is there like a Bryce Young situation where you throw him in too soon and the guy loses his confidence? Because the spot to play him would be after San Francisco week four. Then they play Miami week five. And there's a little stretch where you could say that's the spot. But if they can't block for him, I don't think you can play him.

So here's the grain of salt that must be applied to tonight and why I would recommend like not using tonight as a referendum on, on what's to come. It was a game that you don't want to overreact to after an overtime game on Sunday, like one of the worst spots. Uh, I think now the number is two and 16 against the spread and equally abysmal. Uh,

straight up for teams coming off of a overtime game on a Sunday into a Thursday night game. And then you layer on top of that, Jared Mayo, rookie head coach, another trend that is just

It was a terrible spot for the, for new England. So this was kind of, I mean, Raheem on East coast bias that ran Thursday on FanDuel TV said this could be a smash spot for the jets. And it was a smash spot for the jets. I thought the pats were going to either win by three or lose by 20.

And the 20 seemed more realistic, but after the first two drives, you can't overreact after a Thursday night game. You can't overreact after agent will Jurassic retires either. Like Adam Schefter did. He wanted his life back.

He didn't want to have to work on holidays. He didn't want to have to be away from more family gatherings. I will say this. He didn't want to take a shower with your phone up against the shower door so you could see a text that's coming in. Or take your phone with you to the urinal and hold it in one hand while you take care of your business in the other. That's the life we live. This is the thing Adam Schefter said on television. What is...

Is he an ER doctor during that, during COVID? I wasn't sure. The phone in the shower could go a lot of different ways. I mean, Oh my God. The Charlotte GM's texted me. I got to hold this piss.

What happened yesterday? What was that? I will just say this. Whenever you kick me off this podcast, I will say I take great comfort in the idea that I can retire and then I'll be the GM of the Holy Cross basketball team. You should do that right now. Is that job available? I don't want you to fire me. I don't want to get fired. If you were the GM of the Holy Cross basketball team, I'd be excited.

I don't know if it's a good trade-off. I like this. This is better. I can have two bourbons and talk to you. It's kind of, you know, it feels like less pressure. Other highlights from tonight, Pat's Jets. Rodgers kind of had a weird moment with Salah on the sidelines after a touchdown that

It seemed like Sala was going in for a hug and Rogers kind of shoved him and then people were trying to read his lips. So what happened on that? No, that was, you know, two highly awkward men doing a machismo thing. That's all. Like that was their version of whatever. I'm a badass. No, you're a badass. We're badasses. That's what I think it was. Do you think it's Aaron Rogers because he sleeps three nights, three hours a night or?

Who's that agent Roger asking? We cannot talk about three hours a night. Was he sleeping three hours a night in mid August when there were no NBA transactions or was he, is he like a bear? That's when he was getting more sleep after that. Um, the longest pass by the Patriots to wide receiver this year in three games. What do you think the number is? I mean, it's definitely under 20, isn't it? Is it, is it a 22 yard or one 22? Okay. Yeah.

There you go. The Pats are one of those teams. If they're down 10, it's a wrap. If you have them on the multi-view, take them off. We're done. Million dollar picks week three. Last week didn't do that great. We argued about some stuff. You had some good instincts on watch out for week two, watch out for all the underdogs, be careful.

Um, your advice was good for the most part, except for Pittsburgh. We're going to try to align a little bit better in week three, but what are you looking for with

With week three trends. So week three, I'm still swimming in some dirty water. I try to look up the lyrics for dirty water. I thought I might sing tonight, but I'm not up for it. The 0-2 teams that are underdogs in week three tend to have some value. And the reason for that is because, you know, the inflation of the market in looking at the teams saying, oh, these are the teams that really suck. And there's a, you know, layered in

some adverse pricing on them so there's a handful of teams i'm looking at i i really like tennessee this week now they're a favorite they don't fit that trend but i like that i like tennessee so did you read about tennessee tell me about tennessee will levis his number got out his cell phone number and people were being mean to him and he had to change his cell phone number

His coach was also mean to him. I'm worried about the Will Levis mojo slash what's his confidence going to look like. I don't think he's Mr. Popularity in Tennessee right now. And that's also a home game.

What if things go sideways? Are there, are the boot birds going to be out? He's, you think we could get Fandle to write a prop for how many times will Brian Callahan ask? We'll let us, what the fuck are you doing? It was like set it at 0.5.

And let us jump in on that market. I think that would be the best part of being an NFL coach. It might be the last job where you can scream at somebody that works for you. What the fuck are you doing? While you're being filmed by cameras all over the place. Hey, before we get to million dollar picks, actually.

I, for the first time ever, I'm going to be diving into WNBA playoff bets. Hey now. Yeah. I've been following it just enough. We just launched the ringer WNBA show with Syrit. Um, and there's four games on Sunday. We like gambling on basketball. We're not allowed to, to bet on the NBA until the season starts on October 22nd. We're just not allowed to bet on preseason at all because it's stupid.

But WNBA, they have the series prices house. Would you like to hear them? Yes. I'm very interested in this. Okay. I'm glad you asked. Indiana is going to be playing the Connecticut Sun. A sneaky stealth. Don't be surprised if some shit happens with them team. Which one?

The sun, the fever, every, you know, the fever of the most public team, probably in the history of, of women's or men's basketball, where they probably had to juice the line a certain way, knowing all the Caitlin action was coming in. But what do you think that line is? Sun versus fever. You mean for the series? Is there a series price? Yeah. Games one and two in Connecticut. And if it's game three, it's do or die. It would be in Indiana because they have this weird rule with that.

So what do you think it is? Connecticut as the tiniest favorite, like a teeny tiny favorite. Connecticut minus 178. Wow. Yeah. That's a giant number. That's way more than I would have guessed. Because they're playing really well. They've been really good the last few weeks. So you got that. Do we really think, do we really think that the WNBA is,

in this first season at the tip top market place that the fever occupy is going to countenance Caitlin Clark getting knocked out in the first round. Do we really think that? Well, here's the question. Commissioner Kathy, I don't know if she's got David Stern in her, but the question is what would DJ, what would DJS do?

Listen, I'm getting into a game three no matter what happens. You have to go 1999 LJ four-point shot level officiating. Yeah, how many kids did Bennett Salvatore have? And what are they doing right now? Are any of them eligible to be a WNBA ref? That's my only question. So you have that. The links are minus 900 over Phoenix, which could be Taurasi's last stand.

The Aces minus 460 over the Storm. That seems like a layup. And then the Liberty are heavily favored against Atlanta. So the smart parlay house would be Minnesota, Connecticut, and Las Vegas plus 111 on FanDuel. Oh, I like that. Now, why is that the smart parlay?

It's the smart. It's the thinking man's parlay. The problem is you're betting against Caitlin Clark, which means you're betting against fun. I'm not doing that. Yeah. I don't, I don't want to do that. That would be my recommendation. And I've, I've, I don't want to root against Caitlin Clark. Yeah. Like all of America. She's been super fun. She turned that team around with that said, I think that's the thinking man's smart. All right. Let's talk about some stay aways for week three NFL. Let's hear it.

Bears-Colts to me is just a complete cross it off. I want no part of that game. I don't know if the Bears can block. The Colts have the worst defense in the league. I don't want to bet on Anthony Richardson. I don't want to bet on the Bears. I don't want to bet on Matt Eberflus. I want no part of the game. I kind of like the Colts. I understand your perspective. The danger for the Colts is that the Bears' defense, I think, is sneaky. It's a little frisky. Very good. I mean, they're...

What they did to CJ Stroud. Now, for Houston, we just watched it was an island game, right? We got to see the full game, both of those teams. When Joe Mixon went out, it really changed what they were trying to do. And, you know, there are a couple teams now that really could use a running back. Houston is one. Kansas City is the other that comes to mind immediately. They ought to be out there quietly. Kansas City's...

starting an undrafted white guy and they just signed Kareem Hunt who was running a 5-2-40 last year. So this is what, yeah. So I expect to see Houston. I mean, maybe Mixon could be back. It sounds like it's possible for this weekend. I don't know. The Chiefs are like, yeah, we've brought back Kareem Hunt. The guy you waved after that video, well, that was six years ago. He's a different guy now. We need a running back. We're back. We have worse things than this team. I like the Colts and that Colts-Bears matchup. That's all.

I don't like either of them. Broncos bucks. It's Broncos plus six and a half.

against the Bucks. And I actually kind of like the Broncos, but I wouldn't bet on it. I was really impressed by them in the second half of the Pittsburgh game. I thought that kind of controlled the second half. They just, you know, didn't make a couple of plays. They have a rookie QB, but they played really hard in that game. I think your instincts are right. I am into the Broncos in this game. It's too many points and many points to one score games for Denver. Yeah.

really the only thing holding them back is their rookie quarterback. The defense is not horrendous. This that's a tease buster game. That's one of those. Oh, I'll put Tampa in a tease. They're good. And I'm not putting all this on their leaves. Not me.

Packers Titans. You mentioned that I just, I'm out both ways on that. Plus there's like some Jordan love possibilities that lines move because now they're thinking you might come back for that. Giants Browns was one I stared at for a second because I just don't think the Browns should be six and a half over anybody.

But I can't get there with the Giants because they stink. But that line, I thought that line was too high too. It's too high. I mean, this is the, both the Giants and Denver fit the trend. And it's a 60% hit rate. And there are at least five teams. So three of these five teams are, if you believe in the math over the last 25 years, going to cover. So both the Giants and Denver are eligible. Oh, and two teams against the spread is underdogs in week three, 60% hit rate.

Brian Dayball should do the just randomly retire and be like, he wanted his life back. He didn't want to have to diagram a place for Daniel Jones anymore. In the shower. He was staying up at night thinking of ways to roll Daniel Jones out when he can't throw a complete pass. His phone in the shower. Diagramming Danny Dimes runs.

Raiders Panthers a complete stay away I would probably lean toward the Panthers but I'm not betting on them it is the Panthers is the only side to play there yeah and then Bengals your team Washington your team has that late garbage time it's Bengals seven and a half your team has that late

kind of garbage. Nobody's watching anymore. And Daniels is just lighting it up in the fourth quarter of a meaningless game. But I'm not betting on that either. Well, those that game is interesting for a couple of reasons. There's a couple angles I want to just sort of observe out loud in the first place. Washington very quietly by some advanced metrics has a really efficient offense. Yeah, they are running the ball and

And they understand that there's an advantage to running the ball early in the season. Now, unfortunately, quite a bit of those runs are coming from the quarterback and he is not built for running. I mean, at least I had one text experience.

exchange on Sunday like, oh, that's it. We're not going to see him now for another two months. He took one shot in the ribs like, oh, he just broke four ribs. So there are going to be at least one of those hits a game. I really like Cincinnati in a teaser capacity in this game. And I also have to. I cannot. I cannot. I cannot emphasize this enough for all the betting buddies out there.

Washington against a top receiver. This is the third straight week. You must look at Jamar Chase Deez Nuts overs. Jamar Chase Deez Nuts over receptions and over receiving yards. Look at Malik neighbors. Look at who they play in week one. Both Godwin and Evans. Evans had, you know, one of his career games. Jamar Chase Deez Nuts overs. Got to do it. Wasn't that, that was Chris Berman's nickname for him, right?

He did it. Three of the other fastest three minutes in football. Yes. That's the three minutes. Jamar chase these nuts. Uh, 49ers Rams is just to stay away. And Jawan Jennings looks like he might be the number one 49ers receiver. I don't know who the number one Rams receiver is. And, uh, no, thank you. Good luck to anyone trying to figure that game out.

I like the Falcons against the Chiefs plus three and a half, but I'm not betting it because that seems like a classic. Oh, I liked how they looked on Monday night, but then you think about it. The Eagles just should have won the game outright and I don't want to bet against the Chiefs. Let's just stick a tiny bit longer on that game. It is worth observing that the Chiefs have not been very super impressive. Now they did have games against Baltimore and

and Cincinnati, two of their all-time conference foes. They were crucial games. Both of those games were 50-50 games. The Chiefs could easily be 0-2. And the Chiefs as favorites of over three points, Mahomes in his career, not that great of a record, not that impressive. Um...

Well, plus they're not going to be able to run the ball, the lead, because they have Carson Steele and washed up Kareem Hunt. But I don't want to bet on Kirk Cousins. And you don't want to bet on Kirk Cousins. I don't. Let's not bet on Kirk Cousins. Here's the big one I want to talk out. And I think we're going to land on, let's stay away from this. But Seahawks minus four and a half against the Dolphins. That line's moved down toward the Dolphins. And there's, you know, the Seahawks can't really block. They barely beat a Patriots team that, as we just saw tonight, is borderline abhorrent.

Kenneth Walker's out. Charbonnet wasn't great replacing him. You could argue little Ewing theory possibility with Skyler Thompson. I was looking at Seattle first half, Seattle game minus 120, which is a bet that's been good to us last year and this year too. The question is Skyler Thompson. I heard you on the Ringer Gambling Show. You guys were mentioning he played well in that Buffalo game. And I was like, I don't remember that that way.

And I went back and researched it. So they lost that Buffalo playoff game with Skyward Thompson, 34 to 31. It's like, wow, he put up 31 points. That's great. He was 18 for 45 for 220 yards. He had two picks. The game, it was 17, nothing Buffalo. Um, Alan, Josh Allen had two interceptions and a fumble touchdown that went to Miami. So that was seven of the points. So really they had 24.

And they kept turning the ball over. Miami got a 50-yard kick return. Miami had field position on Buffalo's 48, Buffalo's 27, Buffalo's 18, and they got the fumble TD. And then when they actually had a chance to win it late, Thompson couldn't make a play. So if you're going to use that game, I would actually go back and look at the details. And if you look at the rest of Skylar Thompson's games, not great.

I think we've swung too far with the Tua thing where it's like, yeah, somebody else could go in and do that. And I don't think that's the case. So I'm looking at that Seattle defense wondering if they just take a lead and put the game away. But anyway, first half game minus 120. What are your thoughts?

So I absolutely prefer that to messing with the spread. No doubt about it. My hesitation with Seattle is the tough spot. Like we just watched New England coming off of that overtime game into the Jets game. Now there's a huge difference between coming off of that

for New England a short week into a Thursday night road game. But Seattle, off of that overtime game, having to come all the way back across country, and you say, well, Miami has to go across country too. Yes, that's true. It's a long flight. But they had all the 10-day rest, right? Because they played Thursday night last week. And they've had that extra time with McDaniel to scheme Skyler. Now, for sure, the numbers are abysmal. They're not...

Malik Willis abysmal for Skyler Thompson, but there's a noticeable material difference in the output of both Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell and especially Waddell with Skyler at quarterback. I don't think we have to bet it, but if we did have to bet it, I would do what your instinct is, which is Seattle first half and Seattle to win the game.

All right. We're going to take a break and then we're going to hit the games that we're targeting here. Football is back. There's no better place to get in on the NFL action than FanDuel, America's number one sports book right now. All customers give up $5 to get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. And then you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out-of-market game. Plus,

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Cancel anytime. No refunds. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV. Redemption requires a Google account in current form of payment. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. From tip-off to hoisting the trophy, celebrate every moment of the WNBA finals with a Michelob Ultra in hand. The WNBA is so hot. We just launched a

Ringer WNBA show podcast. Yeah, that's happening. You know what goes well with it? Michelob Ultra. The taste, super smooth. Low calories and carbs. Why not save on calories if you're drinking a good beer? I like to keep it nice and cold. It's just really good. And you got the WNBA finals, like all kinds of crazy matchups. Might have the two best teams in the league playing in round two.

It's going to be amazing. We'll see how far Kate and Clark goes. You're not going to want to miss a moment. Stock up on Michelob Ultra for the WNBA finals. Michelob Ultra, superior light beer. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2024, Anheuser-Busch. Michelob Ultra, registered light beer, St. Louis, Missouri. All right, games we're targeting in no particular order.

First of all, feel free. Is there a way for you to hurt me through the zoom screen? Can you electroshock me somehow? Feel free because I like the Jaguars again. I'm back. The dumbest team in the league. I fucking hate their guts. And yet they're getting four and a half in Buffalo and, uh, and I'm seduced yet again. I hate myself.

I'm with you there. And the reason is because the Jaguars have won the box score in both of those first two games. It is, you know, they have absolutely snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. They sure have. They should at an absolute bare minimum have one win. And it's really taken a series of, you know, a folly, series of follies for them to be in this position that they're in.

It's a tough spot. It's a Monday night game, by the way, we should mention. Yeah, all we're asking for is the version that they've shown us in these first two weeks. And then just don't make the stupid plays. Don't do the bonehead thing. Don't have the turnover in the red zone. So four and a half is the line right now, right? It's too many points. Basically, this is their entire season. Yeah. Right. They're playing at Houston next week.

Then they have home Indianapolis, home Chicago, home Pats. There's a world where if they could just win this game, if they can split the next two, they're four and three after week seven. And we're like, oh, I remember when Jacksonville fucked up those first two weeks. I watched both of those games and I just couldn't believe they didn't beat Miami. And I couldn't believe the Cleveland game. I just couldn't understand what they were doing. Buffalo's had, they lost Terrell Bernard last,

who they lost them against neither him or Milano. They also lost Johnson, their slot cornerback. So they're missing three, three good starters now. They still have a pass rush, but the back half, the secondary just isn't there. And if this was ever a game for Lawrence to get his shit going, this is the game. I don't know why they don't throw to Brian Thomas Jr. more. By the way, you're going to hear this.

before Monday night, you're going to hear it in the pregame and you're going to hear it during the game. Trevor Lawrence has lost seven straight games. I feel like this is a kitchen sink game for them. They have to win this game. This is it. You're pulling all the tricks. You're opening the trunk of your car and fucking going hunting in the back for anything.

I think they hang around. I like their cheap touchdown potential too, even if they're down 10. I'm with you 100%. I like this play. I endorse this. Plus four and a half. I hate myself. Let's run it back a third time somehow. I'm going to make a joke that Rudy and Kyle are going to have to edit, but I just want to get it off because I was thinking it the whole time. We're coming back.

We have to start this part again because late night house just crossed a couple lines, but we're back. I'm probably maroon on the YouTube. All right. Next one. Stewards Chargers. I heard you say in Ringer and Gambling Show, this is Stewards minus one and a half and you like the Chargers on a tease. On a tease. I love it. I still love it. I'm not changing my mind. Which I'm not against. Yeah. Pittsburgh's defense. Top three in red zone. First downs allowed. Third down percentage. Turnovers. Points allowed.

They've been awesome. Awesome. And we're just, when you think about what they did to Atlanta versus what Philly didn't do to Atlanta a week later, um, they've been really good. The chargers run, run, run, run, run. Herbert's banged up. It's easy to do when you have the lead.

This to me feels like a, whoever gets the lead first. I just, I like the Steelers team. I think this is a tough spot for the chargers on the road with receivers. They don't really trust, not really able to throw the ball one dimensional against, I think the best defense in either conference. And I think this is just defense field goals. Tomlin fields makes a couple plays and I go into this, uh,

eyes wide open that I know Justin Fields has a pick in him, a fumbled snap in him, a fumble trying to do too much. I will never at any play feel safe with him, but I like that. I honestly think the line should be three. I think there's, I think you're getting a point and a half here. So I'll confess that my single biggest regret for million dollar picks last week was not listening to you and joining you in the Steelers,

Mine is two and a half against bone X. I, I, cause, but your instincts are right on the other, on the other one, you coached Cleveland coach Tomlin against a rookie quarterback. I was a little bit concerned about, you know, the Steelers as a favorite and it was a tough spot for them to consecutive road games. The altitude. I just talked myself. I'll let myself get spooked by real reasons though. They had two consecutive road games altitude. And by the way, they barely hung on. They didn't do anything. I mean, that's right. Uh,

I'm not going to make that mistake this week. And here's the reason why. More prominent than anything else. If Justin Herbert is compromised in any way, shape, or form, and it seems like he's probably going to be compromised even if he does indeed play, this is a super tough spot because the thing that Pittsburgh will do is take away the run. The Chargers have been extraordinary at the run, but that is their one dimension. And

And Pittsburgh, I think, has the right defense to take that dimension away. So if Herbert has to face a pass rush and he's immobile in the way that it seems like he might be, this is a bad spot for the Chargers. So I really like this Steelers lean. Everyone was afraid of the Steelers because of their week 11 through 17 schedule. Properly. If they get through this game, if they win this game,

They're at Indy next week against Richardson, who the ball is just flying around. You have no idea where it's going. Home Dallas on a Sunday night, week five. At Vegas, week six. And then home for the Jets, home for the Giants, bye week. They win this game. That could be like seven and one, six and two range.

And I think their defense is good enough. I really think they're D you could argue the saints might have the best offense in either league right now, regular season version. And you could argue this. They always have the best defense. So we both like Steelers minus one and a half. That's two lions minus three.

in Arizona against our beloved Cardinals who have covered both weeks, who we should have taken. I actually, I thought we agreed last week to take them. And then I forgot to do it when I actually did the picks. Yeah. I went back and I was like, wait, I don't, I don't think I actually said Cardinals, but I, I just fucked it up. So that's our fault. But, um, a couple of things with this game and Raheem hit on the angle that I had planned for this for in, on the ringer gambling show that the lions, uh,

You're just getting good value on this because they only scored 16 points last week against Tampa. But if you actually watch that game, they dominated. Their game plan was super wonky. They threw 55 times because Tampa's secondary was banged up. They should just run the ball. I think this is like, hey, let's get our offense going. Let's get back to who we are. Let's pound the ball. Arizona can't stop the run. Let's fucking pound the ball. Let's run it down their throats. Little play action. Let's get our guys going. It's indoors.

And let's just get back to who we are. If you believe in the Lions as a Super Bowl contender, they have to win this game. The cards house money. They won last week. This was probably the hardest game and the hardest home game on their schedule. And if they hang around, it's a bonus. So I don't know. I just think the Lions should win. It's a perfect number. And...

the look ahead for this game was Detroit by four and a half and it's moved a full point and a half from, you know, just at the end of the summer up to this moment because of, you know, the curious inability of Detroit to score any points. They had 20 points in the, over the course of the regular stretch of the game against the Rams. It took them

overtime to get to 26 points against a Rams defense that's supposed to be in transition. And then a Tampa defense that all of the handicapping going into week two was all the injuries that are decimating the Tampa secondary that this Detroit team couldn't take advantage of. And, you know, some miraculously Clint Kubiak has jumped right over Ben Johnson as the sexiest assistant in the NFL. Maybe Ben Johnson's rattled.

We need, we need. He's like, I thought I was the sexy OC. I'm not the sexy OC anymore. I'm going to have Jared got through 55 times. Ben Johnson better put the Johnson on the table. It's time to rush the effing football. Run it down there. That's it.

They did that in the overtime in the Rams game. He was like, oh, you know what we should do? Run the ball. Oh, really, Doc? You think so? So the other element to this that I love that matches up with the way that we're scripting this thing out is the under 51 and a half is a crazy number. If we think that what Detroit is going to do is just ball control, own the game with the best offensive line in football, which is what they have. Yeah.

And just take care of business. Come on, Detroit. I'm not messing with that because of Kyler's end of the game and the half stuff. I get it. That guy can put up seven points in like five seconds. So Lions minus three, we're marking that down. I can't believe how much I like this next one. I'm just going to admit defeat on the Saints. I thought they were going to be terrible. They've been completely reinvigorated by the new coach. And I wonder, like, maybe there's like 16, 17 teams that are all basically the same team.

And then if you give them a really good coach or somebody who's innovative, that team can just jump. Because this Saints team was dog shit last year. Now, all of a sudden, it was kind of shocking to watch how fast they were, how creative they were. And I think it's sustainable. And a lot of the stats from those first two weeks, we talk about it later in the podcast too, but a lot of the stats from the first two weeks really forebode

future at least regular season dominance we're old enough to forebode or foretold forebode i we're old enough to remember uh foretold i listen it's late i just watched drake may get thrown down nine times i'm the one who had the bourbon i've only slept three hours um that we're old enough to remember the 99 ramps

That came out of nowhere. Nobody believed it for weeks. Weeks. We were like, what is this? Kurt Warner, arena football? What's happening? Whoa, they look fast. Ah, I watched the Rams again. They put up more points. What is this? I'm not saying the Saints are that, but after the 999 Rams, I'm prepared for anything in an NFL season. And that team is speed and they're well coached. And they're playing this Eagles team that's bottom eight right now in passing.

But the defense passing rush third down their 31st and yards per play. They hit Kirk cousins twice in the entire fucking game after he got annihilated in week one. And I just think the saints are going to be too fast for them. And how about this? Maybe the Eagles aren't good.

So here's the caution. The look ahead for this game was Eagles by three or by three and a half. And when you have a line movement of, you know, six points in some instances, I mean, there are some markets. Saints is two and a half on FanDuel, but I saw some Saints by three out there. Don't you think it gets to three?

It probably will, yes. I mean, because everybody just saw the Eagles basically forfeit a mother-effing football game on Monday Night Football. I mean, kill teases, kill money line parlays, kill it all. And it was just a complete self-inflicted wound by Sirianni, Mensa Sirianni. And here's the thing that really...

to me, though, kind of pushes it in the direction that we want to go. The A.J. Brown thing cannot be understated or overstated. Whichever one is the correct word. They just had no explosiveness at all. Right. None. And they can and will run the ball. Saquon's been amazing. Saquon these nuts. Amazing's nuts far this season. But, you know, without that threat, that vertical threat,

Atlanta did a damn good job against this Eagles team, I thought, on Monday Night Football. Their defense seems slow. I'm not sure their defense can play for three hours at that kind of speed. And I like the spot for the Saints. I just...

I don't think Dallas is very good, but I thought what the Saints did to them was pretty crazy. And they scored six touchdowns in a row. So the one thing, the only thing I'll observe, and our good pal Raheem made this point on East Coast Bias, the Ringer Gambling feed. If you like the Saints in this moment, then go. Just bet them for the odds, yeah, the Super Bowl odds. Get them both for the NFC, to win the NFC Conference, and get a Super Bowl number now.

because those markets don't reflect them being in the same category as the Eagles, and they're favored over the Eagles this week. You know what's funny about that? Since he said that,

The Saints went to 12. They're 12 to one now in the NFC and they're 30 to one for the Super Bowl. When he when he had that, it was like 15 to one. And so I think I think some people are thinking that way. But they're still behind a bunch of teams. They're still behind. They're still behind the Eagles. They're behind. Their coach is Dennis Allen. That would be a fact. That would be the fair rebuttal. That's the zag. Their quarterback is their car. Another zag. But I think they win this game. OK. Ravens Cowboys.

The only thing that worries me about this is it looks a little too easy. The Ravens are in Dallas and they're laying a point and a half. The Ravens lose, they'll be 0-3. To say it's a big game would be an understatement. I don't think an 0-3 team is ever on the Super Bowl. Dallas, I don't think they can stop the run. Me either. They have one wide receiver target, C.D. Lamb, and he's hurt. Ferguson might play, might not. Talk about one-dimensional. They have the worst running backs in the league. And they look good in week one because they played a shit team. They got killed last week.

And I just think the speed and power of the Ravens, you know, I don't love the Ravens defense and I'm sure Dak can, can throw the ball on them, especially if they're behind, maybe he gets some cheap, but I just think the speed and power they're rushing the Lamar, Derrick Henry combo, that should be enough in this game. They're just better than Dallas.

I share this view with you and we're asking for so little. What's the line now? It's minus one and a half. They can't win by fucking a fucking field goal. Right. I mean, it's almost worth the money line is probably, uh, equally fine. Just playing Baltimore on the money line rather than the one and a half. Didn't even mess in with the one and a half. Yeah. Like, you know, it can't be that expensive to play Baltimore on the money line there. Um,

But we'll see what's Fandle might have something to say about that house. Let's find out. Oh, yeah, you're right. It's minus 112 to play the money line. So there we go. That's the play. That's the play. The Baltimore money line. At the end of the day, we could do all the X's and O's. Baltimore has been really bad. The right side of their offensive line, Falale. I don't know. They're trying to figure stuff out. But I prefer.

coach Harbaugh and Lamar to coach McCarthy and Dak. And that's my handicap. I'm with you. So we can do double your winnings on a money line bet. Okay. According to FanDuel. All right. We did it last week and it hit. We can do it again this week and we can put it on Ravens minus 112. Let's do that. And basically bet.

112,000 and win 100K, but then double that to 200K. Okay. Because this is all make-believe money and I can do whatever I want. But that's what we're probably going to do with that one. Okay. Good. Texans-Vikings, Texans minus two and a half at Minnesota. And this is a fun one because my instinct when I saw it was like, oh yeah, come on, Houston, going to do that. And then I really dug into the stats and

There's some bad offensive line stats with Houston. Yes. They're 24th in sacks. This is their offense. 24th and sacks 27th and hurrieds 22nd in their quarterback and hit Minnesota. And those categories first, first and first, they're going to be coming the whole game. Right? So if you, if you're betting on Minnesota, you worry about is Jefferson, is he going to be healthy? Is Addison going to be healthy, but they've been running the ball pretty well. Um,

I have a same game parlay for you. I know we haven't done a same game parlay. I just want to throw it at you. All right. I'm listening. Bikes up to plus eight and a half. Love that. That's one of my favorite teaser legs this week. The over under all the way up to under 51 and a half. Fine. 52 points to beat us. Yep. Stroud throws for 200 plus yards, which is minus 700. He's done it in his last nine full games. He's thrown for at least 200.

You put those three together, that's plus 120. Look at that. That's not even asking very much. That's a three-legger.

It fits a script where you're really not pushing down too hard on any aspect outcome. Give yourself a lot of outs with that, right? Eight and a half. That's two scores for Minnesota. Who's been one of the best coached teams in the NFL through the first two weeks. The Stroud 200 yards. Right. So the concern is,

with Houston is, is mixing, mixing, being out. Yeah. What are they doing with the, with play action? What does that do to CJ Stroud? That gives you, that gives you, Oh my God. Yeah. Makers Lord. But that also feeds into a nice underplay. Yeah. I think we're onto something here. BS. I like what you've done. So you like that one. Okay, good. I do.

And then the last one was that Seahawks, which I'm happy to dump. Seahawks first half, Seahawks game against Skylar Thompson. Let's stay away from it. So we're dumping that one. Okay. All right. Wow. So we have one, two, three. We have six. Six bets for the million dollar pick. Do we have an argue pick this week?

Did we argue on any of those? We might have had more. I think that's a good sign if we're aligned. More agreement than arguing. I guess our argue pick we could make, but I didn't really feel strongly about Bears Colts. Could we argue on? No, we didn't have an argue pick. Can't force the argue pick. Let's not force it. Yeah, let's not force it. All right. So last week we lost $240,000. We are still up $124,000 on the year. Good. When straight up we're five and three and we've split the argue pick so far.

The million dollar picks for week three. Steelers going against their Spider-Man meme rival, the Chargers. Whoever goes up three nothing wins the game. Steelers minus one and a half. We're going to put $200,000 on that. I finally sucked you in with the Steelers.

What's happened? No, what do you mean finally? That was one of our favorite bets of week one. And it went exactly according to script. That's why you kept me around. That's why I didn't have to retire. I don't want to hear facts. That's why I didn't have to retire and go be the GM of Holy Cross. Steelers, suddenly, I want you to be the GM of Holy Cross. That's going to be unbelievable. Let's throw your hat in the ring. Steelers minus one to have $200,000. Detroit.

Coming off a dumb loss last week. Is Detroit really going to lose two in a row? Are the Cardinals really just going to clean up an awesome team at home with a crap defense? And Campbell, 8-0 against a spread off a loss. Lions minus three. You said the look-ahead line was what? A couple weeks ago? Four and a half? Yeah. We're grabbing Lions minus three in Arizona. 200,000 on that. We're going to ignore the look-ahead line. What happened with Saints-Eagles?

Saints minus two and a half against an Eagles team that let's just be honest, was probably overrated heading into the season. And that's where we landed. No AJ Brown, probably a Saints offense that I think what they did those first two weeks, I took seriously their home.

Saints minus two and a half, $200,000. Next one, Baltimore going to Dallas. Jerry World possibly in shambles. They've got one receiver. They've got no running backs. Their defense looked glacier-like last week. Ravens coming in desperate, trying to fight off 0-3. Speed of Lamar, power of Derrick Henry. We're taking the money line on this, minus 112, and we're taking advantage of a little FanDuel gimmick

double your winnings on any money line bet. Now they have limits when you do it on Fando. We don't have limits on million dollar picks because this is fake money. We're going to double our winnings if we hit this bet. Ravens minus 112. We're doing that for 100K. And if we win, we win. We win 200. And then we have a little same game parlay in Fando's honor. Vikings plus eight and a half at home against Houston.

The under 51 and a half. When I told you this one, I honestly, I thought you were going to take your pants off. Stroud. Stroud 200. I only do that when I have to look at my phone in the shower. Stroud 200 plus yards. That same game parlay is plus 120.

Now, we could take that under up to 54.5 and get that at minus 110. No. All right, so you want the 51.5. Okay. Vikings plus 8.5, under 51.5. Stroud, 200 plus yards. That is plus 120. We're going to put 200K on that. And then last but not least, the dumbass Jaguars.

They're getting four and a half in Buffalo on a Monday night. Buffalo's defense is impossibly banged up.

The Jaguars need a win. They're about to go on three if they don't win this game. They have lost two of the stupidest games of the year. I vowed not to bet against them or on them or anything with them on Sunday. And now five days later, we're here. I think they keep it close. I think they could potentially win. There's cheap touchdown potential. This is a game that should be a three-point game one way or the other. Jags plus four and a half. Are you good with this? I'm good with this. We're not going to argue with it. I endorse it.

Any last thoughts for Trevor Lawrence? Best of luck. Get a haircut. Those are your million dollar picks for week three. And you can see us this weekend.

on YouTube TV and on FanDuel on the Ringer Sunday pregame, a fantastic show. You know who else is popping on that show? Me. You! I'm coming on for the last like 15 minutes. I'm going to take Sal's spot so Sal can pull out his little Hunter Biden sheet and write more bets on it. So yeah, that's going to be at 11 o'clock ET.

on Sunday. We'll be going over all these games. What do you think the biggest line move is going to be by Sunday? I think the Saints is going to go to three or three and a half. That would be one of my predictions. It depends on if there's more news about Herbert. Herbert would really alter that Pittsburgh Chargers game. Right. All right, Haas, I know you need your three hours sleep. It was great to see you. And I'll see you next week for Billion Dollar Picks.

Now it's time for a special part of today's episode sponsored by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket has awesome features to help you stay on top of all the action. Like MultiView, my buddy, where you can watch up to four games at once or layer on stats and fantasy views or track your favorite teams and players. And by the way, when you bundle NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV, you get access to every game

Every Sunday. That's the most live NFL games all in one place. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games. Excludes digital-only games, device, and content restrictions.

All right. So what are we looking for this Sunday? We're going to talk with Craig Corl back in a little bit about some of the fantasy stuff. The biggest thing is the Saints. Is this real? If it is real, do you have some of the guys on this team? Is their offense going to keep putting up big points? I think that's an important one. Steelers, Chargers, one of those defenses is probably going to win that game. Which one's it going to be?

Ravens Cowboys is another one. What's going to happen on that one? Are the Ravens really going to not win a game for the first three games of the season? Who's going to be the better quarterback? So just some good subplots. I really like the week three slate actually. So can't wait to multi-view it and go nuts. Thanks again to our friends at NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. Don't miss a moment, a minute, a second of the action. Watch every game every Sunday when you bundle NFL Sunday Ticket

and YouTube TV. Sign up today. YouTube.com slash BS, my initials. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital in the games. Device and content restrictions apply.

This episode is brought to you by Buffalo Wild Wings Go. Takeout and delivery from Buffalo Wild Wings is now Buffalo Wild Wings Go. And for a limited time, you can get 10 free boneless wings from Buffalo Wild Wings Go when you spend $15 and use promo code GOBONELESS, which by the way, I'm a boneless guy. Sorry. I just love it.

You know, some people are like boneless wings, depending on the situation. Some people are hardcore wings. I'm a boneless guy. Makes it easier for boneless too. When you try any of the B-dub sauces, you can just smear them right in there. They have a crazy amount of sauces and dry rubs, which you should know if you've been to Buffalo Wild Wings. There's like 26 of them. My favorites, Nashville Hot.

I really like the orange chicken and I'm an original Buffalo guy. And if I had to pick one, I would pick the Nashville hot. Cause I like my mouth feeling hot when I'm eating boneless chicken. Let's be honest wings. They are the one true football food. So the fact that you can get 10 of them free while you watch, I don't know the first Sunday action when they have all those games and the early games, you're just flipping around. Maybe you got a little multi-view action.

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I asked for his five hottest takes heading into the NFL season. His number one hottest take

was that Bryce Young would be benched. Now, do you get demerits because you didn't say he would be benched in September? I feel like that would have been the elite take, right? I think that's fair. I do think that's fair. I should have seen that coming as a Panthers fan. As someone who watched this guy play for 17 games or 16 games last year, I should have known better. But I'm sorry, I'll be better this time. I'll have hotter takes this time. What if it's not the players? What if it's the Panthers in the city? Because I saw there was a picture circulating on Twitter of

Sam Darnold next to Baker Mayfield in Panthers jerseys, which brought me back to a couple years ago when I think I lost week to week more money on the Panthers than maybe any other team. And they almost still made the playoffs. Baker flamed out. Darnold came in, actually did pretty well. He flamed out down the stretch.

But maybe it's what is there more something sinister going on here? Is it like a horror movie? I don't think so. Cam Newton seemed to do fine. I think Andy Dalton did fine when he when he stepped in for Bryce Young last year. I don't think that's it. I think it's I think it's David Tepper. I think he's the horror. He's the he's the villain. He's the horror movie. Yeah, he's the horror movie. I do think that's fair. But this is more like, I guess, like a financial movie where he's kind of Wall Street, maybe. So it's like the big short. Yeah, yeah, it's around. It's like that.

He's definitely to blame. Like, I don't think Bryce Young really had a chance. I was low on him before the draft. Like, he watched him play. I honestly don't give myself too much credit for calling him getting benched because for me, that was the take I felt strongest about going into that last pod we did. Just because when you have like a historic outlier like him, you're 5'10", 180 pounds, those guys don't get drafted in the top five. I think it's like,

You either have it or you don't. And you could tell right away. And with him, if you weren't like holding on to hope that he would become the Panthers savior as a Panthers fan, I think it was very easy to watch him and be like, this guy doesn't have it. It's not viable. And then this year we just seen it get worse. Yeah. And he looked, once you lose your confidence as a quarterback, you might as well just go hide in the hyperbaric chamber. Has one good thing happened with Tepper since he bought the team? Has there been one positive?

No, no. Maybe taking down like the old owner statue is the best thing. Oh, I got one. They they switch from having the NFL logo at midfield to having a Panthers logo at midfield. Like that's literally the best thing that's happened for fans. I would say it's the best thing probably for the other teams in the area.

Like for the basketball team, Tepper's amazing because the basketball team just got new owners. They actually seem like they know what they're doing. And then Tepper's over here and they just look. I mean, there's also this alternate universe where he got the Panthers over Michael Rubin, the guy who owns Fanatics. And I don't know what that would have looked like, whether that would have been better, but I don't think it would have been worse.

Yeah, I think it would have been better because his problem, it's not the Dan Snyder problem. Like I grew up in Washington. I grew up around Washington fans. I was like,

alive during the entire Dan Snyder period. Dan Snyder's problem was like, he was a Washington fan who happened to own the team. And he acted like a fan who owned the team. That's not the problem with David Tepper. David Tepper is a finance guy who thinks all of the lessons he learned in finance apply to the NFL. And you could just hear it in his press conferences. Every press conference, there's a reference to his career or his other business ventures. And it's just not the same. And I think that's the problem is that he wants to get things right

but he wants to get things right on his own terms where he kind of gets credit for doing it a different way. Yeah, it's weird that the owners don't come into the league and study the successful ownership groups that have worked and how they've worked. And in the NFL, especially every time it's collaboration, it's multiple people. A lot of times you don't even totally know who the owner was. And I know Kraft tried to

changed some of that history after the fact that the documentary he did, but let's be honest. One of the reasons he was a good owner was he stayed out of the way and let Belichick do whatever. So the Panthers, I think the over under for them heading into the year was six and a half. And a lot of people were like, watch out. Oh, like we had people, uh, a couple of people on our ringer gambling show, the bundo Rahim, these guys who know stuff, uh,

trying to talk themselves into a division title possibility. And it turns out it was the Saints. Yeah. You just got to bring me on at that point and I'll just go, the quarterback's 5'8". Okay? He's 5'8". Like, that's... I feel like I was taking crazy pills in the run-up to the draft how this guy was not only like the consensus QB1. It's like, why aren't we questioning that he's even a top five pick to me? Like, I wrote about this on the site. Yeah.

I compared him to mini Joe Burrow, and I don't think people realize how derogatory that comp was supposed to be. Because think about Joe Burrow. He's like a pocket passer. If you made Joe Burrow 5'8", it wouldn't work. He doesn't have the top-level arm. He's athletic and can move around, but he's not Lamar Jackson. He's not Anthony Richardson. He's not a game-changer in the run game. There

There's no fantastic traits, no exceptional standout traits. Like even a player like Kyler Murray, who is 5'10", and I don't even think Kyler Murray's 5'10". Like he seems to shrink every time I watch him play. But he has the arm and he has like the Russell Wilson, you can't sack me no matter what. And I could throw on the run just as well as I throw stationary kind of thing. Bryce didn't have any of that. He didn't have any of that in college and he didn't have any of that over his first season in the pros. Well, they always talked about poise. That was his best trait. I mean,

Kyler has the escapability and, you know, he always has a knack for extending plays that I think I just didn't see with Bryce. I remember the ringer draft coverage that year, Danny Kelly, who I think is the most even keeled member of our football, extended football staff. And even he was like, ah, this would basically be a historical outlier. Bryce Young was good, but wasn't against it. But he was like, just so everybody knows like this,

Kind of doesn't happen in the NFL. Yeah. The one thing is like the confidence in the pick, the confidence to trade up, the confidence to, like, if you read the accounts, my favorite thing to do after like a coach hiring or a draft pick goes bad is to go and look at the team website and what they wrote about it. It's like this, like 4,000 word write up about like the pre-draft process. And in hindsight, it's one of the funniest things you'll ever read. But at one point, they're like, oh yeah, at the dinner, uh,

Bryce Young, he ordered scallops and a salad. So you know he wasn't worried about being perceived as a small guy. And just the tea leaf reading that we do during the draft. I have no idea. I like scallops. I'm six foot and a half. I know. If he ordered a big steak, they'd have been like, oh God, this guy's compensating for something. Yeah, he's got small man's complex. So on Fando, the Panthers, under two and a half wins is plus 220. Under one and a half wins is plus 520.

So if you think the Panthers are going to go 0-17 or 1-16, that's plus 520. Is there any evidence that this team can put together a couple wins? Dalton comes in as the quarterback and the line immediately moves almost two points, which was another bad sign for Bryson. Yeah, that's a very bad sign. That's a big movement. Yeah, like I think they're a decent team. Like you watch the Chargers game. The pockets are clean. Receivers are open. The defense is whatever. But like,

In terms of offensive environment, a decent quarterback can get the most out of this. We haven't seen much of Andy Dalton over the last two years, but when we've seen him play, he's performed well. Like, the stats are good. Like, PFF graded him as, like, a top-10 quarterback two years ago when he was playing in New Orleans. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it just shows that he's competent. And I think we're going to see that. We're going to be like, oh...

This was worse than we thought in terms of Bryce. And this situation isn't nearly as bad as we thought. Well, have you noticed, and you're part of this, but the 2024, it's late Monday morning, early Monday afternoon, Pacific time.

And all these different people I'm following on Twitter or people who are retweeting other stuff and just these video breakdowns now are instantaneous. So when Bryce Young is bad on a Sunday, by Monday, I'm watching a 10 play compilation that somebody made of like, watch all these open guys that he missed over here. Watch how he makes the completely wrong decision on this play.

And I just, I guess I'm just happy for Mac Jones that we didn't have this stuff in the same way last year because I think it wouldn't have been great for him. Yeah, I wonder like how we would have thought of quarterbacks if this like sort of media, social media environment would have been around like in the late 90s, early 2000s. Like in the 1970s?

when people were throwing 30 interceptions in a season. There has to be some guys back then that we all take for granted as being a great, all-time great player. But if we viewed them through our lens right now, that we would be like, oh, they were a system quarterback. They were propped up. Oh my God. There were so many... The guys in the 70s who we thought were the great quarterbacks and you go back and look at their stats and it's hilarious. Now, granted...

They're going back to pass. Guys are diving at their legs. Guys are clothesline them after they throw. They're throwing over the middle. Guys are getting clotheslined. Guys are getting headhunted. So it was way harder to throw the ball, but it's still kind of funny. All right. So you're here for your five hottest takes two weeks into this season. We're going to go in reverse order. We're playing five favorites. Your five favorite takes. Number five is what? I'm going to go Jalen Hurts isn't a top 10 quarterback. Dot, dot, dot in the NFC.

I don't think he's a top 10 quarterback in the NFC. Now I am. I will say one thing. I am reaching a little bit here because the 10th guy, I don't really know if he's better than Jalen Hurts, but I'm like 85% confident in this take that he's not a top 10 quarterback. Wow. So who did you have against him for the 10th spot that was on the bubble? Baker Mayfield.

I'll throw Kirk in there too, because I don't know. We don't know what Kirk is. We still don't know what Kirk's going to be coming back from the injury. But I think if like Kirk gets back to 95% of what he was last year before the injury, I think he's definitely better than Jalen Hurts at this point. But Baker is the one that I kind of, I have a,

hard time putting him over Hurts and only because Hurts provides as a runner. And we saw that on Monday, like when the offense was totally neutered, he couldn't do anything in the pocket. He couldn't do anything in the passing game, but he could scramble. So he always has that like Trump card he can go to. I don't think Baker has that. And I think when Baker tries to play that Trump card, that's when you see the worst of Baker when he tries to do too much.

But all these other guys, like I'm confident in saying that they're better than him. Every quarterback in the NFC West, I would take over him right now. And I'm not a Brock Purdy guy, as everyone knows, not a Brock Purdy guy, but I think he allows you to run a certain style of offense that hurts just doesn't allow you to run at this point. And,

I'm trying to think of the other guys where I kind of, you know, it's 50-50 for me. Like, Jared Goff, I feel like is definitely better than him. Jordan Love, definitely better. Dak, definitely better. Derek Carr, I think it's easier to say now after the first two weeks, but I probably would have thought about it before. Yeah, that's...

Well, let me say this. What does he do better than Derek Carr? That's my one thing. I don't think he's a better thrower than him. I think Jalen Hurts is one of the more overrated throwers because he's so good at running the football. We assume that he's also good at throwing on the run. But when you look at his stats and you watch the tape,

He's one of the worst throwers on the run that like in the league. He's very stiff as a as a he's almost like an action figure where his joints can only move in certain directions. And I think you need some like hip flexibility to be able to throw on the run and he doesn't have it. The short yardage stuff with him is great.

Two years ago, I thought he was good enough that my 2023 fantasy strategy was just to try to get as many eagles as possible and then watched him all last year. And it just seemed like he was off. And it's like, well, he must have been hurt.

Yeah. This week. And it's like, all right, he's moving a little better, but it doesn't explain some of the pocket stuff. And then you pull out one weapon and they were just struggling to do anything down the field. I mean, they, I, it's a team that I certainly am excited to think about going against this week. The cousins thing is interesting because the Eagles never touched him.

And I still don't know if it's, there's two Kirk Cousins. It's like Kirk Cousins with protection, Kirk Cousins under duress. I still, Kirk Cousins under duress, I would have below Hertz. No, I agree with that. But I think like Jalen Hertz puts himself under duress more often than Kirk Cousins puts himself under duress. Like Kirk Cousins is going to stay in the pocket for two seconds. And if there's, if there's no pressure before that, the ball is going to come out. Jalen Hertz is going to stay in the pocket for two seconds.

look at one read and then start to look around and see where he can exit the pocket and then he runs into pressure you don't have to worry about that with kurt but there's also like a downside to that he's not going to create anything out of structure he's not going to scramble he's not going to throw on the run outside of the outside of structure so it's really a matter of taste for me who would you take for fist bumps cousins had a great one on monday night when they got the go-ahead touchdown or the close to whatever the late touchdown and he did the he does the stare at the sidelines

He's a contrived leader. I'll say that. I think he's the only quarterback that pre-writes his pregame speeches. You know how the quarterbacks do the pregame speeches? He performs them? I think he performs them in the mirror. I think his wife lets him know what's working, what's not working, what he has to switch out. Yeah, take that second graph out. I just think you just go from the first graph to the third graph. That's funny. I think Kirk does that. I know for a fact that Russell Wilson does that.

Like, I don't have any inside information, but I know he does. He uses chatbot, whatever, chatGBT. He's in uniform when he practices it, too. So, I mean, obviously these are hottest takes. I find it hard to push back against this Hertz thing unless he starts playing better. Because they've given him...

This year, the line isn't as good as it was last year, but he's always had a good line. He's always had weapons. He's got Barkley this year, who's, I still think, one of the five best running backs. Just seems like a team that should be able to score points. And Atlanta had them pretty flummoxed. Anyway, all right, what's number four? All right, number four. I'm going to have to explain this one because it's going to sound crazy off the top. Andy Reid is no longer a top five play caller in the league right now. I think that's what he's known for. I still think he's an elite head coach. Okay, let's hear it.

They're 12th in EPA since last year. They have not figured out how to throw the deep ball, even though they have one of the most talented quarterbacks we've ever seen at throwing the deep ball over the last like three years. I think it went away Tyreek's final year. And now we're on year two without Tyreek and they still don't have a reliable explosive passing game. Yeah. The run game is up and down. The screen game is up and down. And then one thing that I think he's lost that I don't know if anyone's caught up to it yet is you remember when he would Andy Reid off the buy?

was always like the scariest thing. Andy Reid, oh, he never loses off the bye. They always, you know, put up a bunch of points off the bye. The last three years, they've won two of the games. But one of those games, they went to overtime against Malik Willis' Titans and scored 22 points. And then the other game, they scored 20 points against Teddy Bridgewater's Broncos and barely won that game. Those were two struggle wins. And then last year, they scored 17 to Philly.

I watch the tape and I'm never thinking like, oh, he's making Patrick Mahomes' job easier. Like, oh, he created that wide open guy running down the seam. Oh, he created that wide open crosser running down the seam. It's usually Mahomes kind of overcoming the weaknesses of the personnel around him. They haven't had two good offensive tackles in years. They haven't had like a strong receiving core in a couple of years.

Kelsey has been good, but I think he's been kind of washed the last couple of years. I think it's all Mahomes right now, but I will say this.

I think Andy Reid is still a top five coach, but it's more about like the program, like the CEO situation. Yeah. Like the ramp up to the season. They play their guys in preseason. They're never cold to start the year. They get off to a hot start and that kind of gives them a buffer. And then also the other thing is like the freedom he gives Mahomes and Kelsey and those receivers to kind of improvise in between plays. And like...

take ownership of the offense. I think it's like the opposite of Kyle Shanahan on the other side of the spectrum of Kyle Shanahan. And I think that kind of makes the Chiefs offense as good as it is, despite the lack of structure we've seen the last couple of years. So I do give him credit for that. I'm taking guys like Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Ben Johnson,

Shane Steichen even in terms of just like play calling who's the guy on the headset sending in the play to the quarterback I'm taking all those guys ahead of him I think Reid's kind of lost it in that area can I zag on your take

Yeah. Maybe regular season Andy Reid is not a top five play caller anymore, but I still feel like he saves stuff for the playoffs because he knows they're going to be there. And it's almost like a standup comic who's going to the comedy store and he's doing his bit, but he knows the Netflix special is coming and that's going to be his best hour. So I feel like he's more in workshop mode. They know they're going to win 12 or 13 games. Right. Right. You know, I have a take off your take about play calling.

So I've noticed this with offensive coordinators that have a lot of smoke blowing up their asses like Ben Johnson did last year. That week two performance, which House and I talked about earlier, a million dollar picks with throwing 55 times with Jared Goff. And it was almost like

Oh, look at all those injuries on Tampa. Oh, I'm going to do this instead. And I, I actually thought that was a really badly called game because all they had to do was just run the ball. And I don't think Tampa would have stopped them. And sometimes the lions are built to run the ball, run the ball, run the ball play action. And that's who they are. I don't know what would make you think you should throw the ball 55 times. It was like Tampa Jedi mind trick them.

to do that. And then they did it and they lost. So I don't know. Ben Johnson's on my watch list. I think that's fair for him to be on your watch list. I think anytime you are an up-and-coming OC and it's only been two years since you've been considered a great one,

You're still trying to show it? Yeah, the best... Yeah, I think that's part of it. And I think the best ones are the ones that, like, they start out good, they hit a wall, and then they bounce back. They find an adjustment. Like, we've seen that with Sean McVay. I think we've seen it with Kyle Shanahan to a certain extent. You don't really know about a play caller until that second act, until they have to adjust, until they get beaten down and they come back. Like...

Of course, the play calling is going to be good two years in a row. He's working with the same personnel. Like he still has that offensive line. That's, that's always a funny thing to me is like, like even a guy like Purdy, and I'm not trying to shit on Purdy right now, but he's just the best example. Like people are like, all right, if Purdy does it again, like he's proven he's the guy. Well, he's still in that offense and he still has those superstars around him and he still has Kyle Schroeder calling the play. Like he's not really proving anything differently than he did. Like I expect him to have a big year again. So I think you could say the same thing about Ben Johnson, uh,

who is working with the best offensive line in the NFL, which I think like if I'm an offensive coordinator outside of quarterback, that's the first thing I want is like the offensive line that allows you to do anything. I think one thing that bothers me with play cars, and you saw this the other night, the Eagles lose that game because they run what seemed to be the perfect screen pass to Barkley and then he drops it. And it's like, well, the play was there. The play was the right play. And it's like, eh, was it? Because you were running the ball really for whatever you wanted.

You're throwing a Barkley in the flat. And if you talk to literally any Giants fan, they'd be like, he used to drop that pass all the time. As great as he is. And he's an awesome running back, but it's not, there's three things that can go wrong in that pass, right? It can get tipped. The quarterback can fuck up the throw. Barkley can drop it. So there's real variable. Even if the guy's open, there's still variables. But running the ball twice on third and three, where you know you have the tush push too, which they haven't stopped all night and you're keeping the clock going.

On top of like a drop screen pass, stop the clock. So there's, that actually was a horrible call. And I couldn't believe people were debating it the next day. No, no, it was actually the right call. It was open. So no, it wasn't. I agree with you. Like the product, the result was ultimately good. Like,

Saquon Barkley wide open if he catches it, it's a first down. But like the process going into it, I agree with you. It was not like the sharpest process. And like if the defense, if the Falcons have a guy in the flat there, then what happens? That plate looks a lot worse. And then we're questioning like, why the hell would he give Jalen Hurts the opportunity to hold on to the ball and take another sack? And, you know. I just don't want, I don't want any scenario.

where the clock might stop when there's a minute 40 left. The other team doesn't have many timeouts and I'm already up three. I'm not taking any chance stopping the clock. They don't lead into the tush push thing enough. Like I'd be running it on 33 yards of play. Why not? Three, I'd run it. I don't, I don't, I don't understand that. Uh, what do you got for number three?

All right. The Randy Reid one was, there's going to be some angry Chiefs fans, but that's the whole point of Hottest Take. I don't mind. All right. This one's going to get a fan base angry. Gino Smith is better than Joe Burrow right now. I mean, his late game stuff speaks for itself.

Has any quarterback been better in the last in the fourth quarter of games in the last year plus two games? And I'll take it a step further. Like Gino Smith is the quarterback that people want you to believe Joe Burrow is like stylistically. And you watch them back to back. You're a Patriots fan. You watch them back to back. You watch Joe Burrow and Gino Smith. They're running the same style of offense, which is like, yeah, get in the gun.

spread things out. We're not going to call play action. We're not going to run the ball. You just got to read things out like you're like prime Drew Brees or 2007 Tom Brady. It's not working in Cincinnati and hasn't been working for the last year. It's working really well in Seattle right now. And you watch those two games back to back.

I think like the environment is the same in terms of protection, in terms of receivers getting open. The difference is Gino Smith is making throws into tight windows downfield, like anticipating throws and being the quarterback, the field general, quote unquote, that you want to see. Whereas Joe Burrow is kind of checking down early, uh,

He's not holding onto the ball. I think he's making bad reads that we didn't see him make before. I think he's kind of pressing and trying to be this guy that he's been built up to be. And it's not working without the support, without Tee Higgins out there. Meanwhile, Geno Smith has been placed in that same situation, and I think he's thriving. No weapons for the Bengals other than Chase.

They had T. Higgins last year. No, I'm just saying for these first couple games. Yeah, no. I agree on the Burrow part. Like, they had the ball, the chance to just close out KC in the fourth quarter of that game, right? And they didn't get a first down. They had to give back to him. He hasn't jumped off the screen like he did a couple years ago. But my thing is, like, he took a team to the Super Bowl. He's won huge games in places like Arrowhead and...

I'm not willing to panic yet, but he has had a couple injuries at this point. And that's the part that makes you think like, eh. It's definitely like, it's a concern, especially when like you came into the league without like these like great physical gifts. Like, I don't think his, you know, athleticism was bad. His arm was bad. But like you talk to GMs and maybe this is old school thinking, but the reason why they love big quarterbacks, they compare it to like car insurance companies.

Like you get a big car, a big SUV, like the insurance isn't as expensive. You get a small, sleek sports car, you have to pay a lot of insurance. It's the same thing with quarterbacks. Some of these quarterbacks, they take a hit and it affects them for five years. A guy like Josh Allen, like, you know, he takes a hit and he's fine. He continues to play. He gives the hit. Yeah. Like we saw just a calf injury, what it did to Joe Burrow last year. Like it turned him into 40-year-old Ben Roethlisberger. And I don't mean that as a compliment.

I think TV 12 diet might be in his future. Yeah. That might be the next step for him. Yeah. And like Tom Brady is like the,

the guy that you look to if you're one of these lesser athletes. Because Tom Brady got better as an athlete as his career went on. He needs to witch doctor Alex Guerrero. Maybe he needs to hire him. Bring Alex Guerrero in in Cincinnati. I don't think Mike Brown would pay for that, though. I actually liked coming out of that. I talked about this Sunday night. Even though they're 0-2, I like their situation a little more than the Ravens because...

I like that they talk shit all week. I think they still carry themselves like they're good. Yeah. Um, they still have good pieces. The Higgins thing, like when he comes back, all of a sudden the team looks different. But, uh, I agree with you. Burrow doesn't seem exactly the same. What's your number two?

My number two is Bill Belichick is going to be coaching the Jaguars next season, and we'll know it by New Year's. It won't be official, but it will be the worst-kept secret in the NFL that Bill Belichick is going to be the next coach of the Jaguars. The Jaguars? Without a doubt in my mind. Okay. Why? Well, first of all, I know some beat reporters down in Jacksonville, and I think there's already whispers there. I'll start with that, but I'm not going to...

I'll go somewhere else to prove it. I think like the way Shad Khan is kind of ramping up his coaching hirings, like he starts with like the no-name GM or no-name defensive coordinator in Gus Bradley. That doesn't work out. No talent defensive coordinator in Gus Bradley. One of the worst head coaches of all time. Yeah.

He goes with Doug Marone. He goes the other side, another, you know, assistant. And then he goes for the splash hire. He goes with Urban Meyer, the guy who's won, but he hasn't won at this level. Yeah. Then he goes to Doug Peterson. That guy who's- That was a body overboard being thrown off a boat splash. Yeah, that was awful. And then the next one is Doug Peterson, the guy that's won at this level, but hasn't done it consistently. The one who hasn't like done it again. I think next to line is Bill Belichick. And then the real reason why I believe this

is because like we talked about earlier, like ShotKhan is a hands-off owner. I don't think he's going to get spooked like Atlanta did when Bill Belichick comes in and goes, I want to run the organization like this. I want to have GM powers. I want to be able to hire my own coordinators. I want to be able to like decide the direction of this franchise. I don't think he's going to get spooked by that. I think he's going to like that. I think he's going to want it. And then if Belichick comes in and he throws those rings on the table, I think that's enough.

I think Shad Khan needs a proven winner, someone where he can't get blamed for hiring the coach, where it doesn't fall back on him. Because if you hire Belichick, it doesn't work out. It's like, yeah, he's the greatest coach ever. It's his fault. Yeah, nobody's like mad that you hired Bill Belichick. So first of all, I forgot how many coaches the Jaguars have had. That was a pretty great list. Second, they're a bottom three worst coach team of the first quarter.

Two weeks. It's just stunning that they lost both of those games and how stupid they were over and over again. It really made me mad. Third, Belichick taking a job from Doug Peterson. There's a poetic justice to that since Doug Peterson sold a Super Bowl. And fourth, old guy moving to Florida. It adds up. It's perfect. He's like, that's what Brady did. Old people go to Florida. So Belichick just goes there. I had him go to the Giants, though.

I thought that, that one in my head made the most sense because he's, you know, that's where he made his bones. He won his first Superbowl. Um, the history of the Giants. Very personal to him. Yeah. Great franchise. He's always talked fondly of them. Lawrence Taylor, Phil Sims, the whole thing. Yeah.

Yeah, when he goes back there, I think there was like an NFL films thing, like following him throughout the season. He went back there. He's like getting emotional and tearing up. Yeah, he loves the Giants. And it feels like that's going to be a complete reboot, rehaul after this year. But if you have Trevor Lawrence in place, you have the quarterback there. You just have to develop him and make sure like he's not surrounded by just terrible coaching. And then you compare that to the Giants quarterback situation, which is like, what do we do? We're drafting Shador Sanders. Are we drafting Carson Beck? Like,

I think that is the deciding factor. I don't know if this is the week to say they have Trevor Lawrence in place.

And I have the most Trevor Lawrence stock right now. I have bets on him. 4,000 yards. I have him on two fantasy teams. I bet on him two straight weeks. I have a lot of concerns. I know I'm going to be like, I thought this was going to be the breakout year. And it's been the opposite. It's been, my face is breaking out from betting on him. I know I'm going to be like the tape guy. They'll like, take my word for it. Like you got to watch the tape. It's not, it's like, oh, it's terrible for him. He's actually playing. He's actually playing well, but like, I don't,

I don't know what to say. I watch him and I'm like, it's not his fault. Like no one's open. And when they're open, they drop the pass. And when, and when they do get open, the pass rush gets there. And like, it's, it's just a poorly coached team. I think it's a poorly constructed team too. Like Trent Balky. I don't, I don't know how he survived the Urban Meyer situation. That's insane to me. He's, he's like the cockroach of the NFL.

You'll be happy to know a million dollar picks. We took the Jaguars for the third straight week. After we had rants on Sunday night, I'm ranting about how stupid they are. I hate myself. I'm never taking them again. And now the line in Buffalo is just too high. I had them in my survivor pool last week. So I'm with you. Oh, Jesus. All right. Your number one hottest take is...

This isn't my hottest take, but it's something like everyone's been talking about. I don't know if you saw Mel Kiper talking about banning too high or whatever because the scoring down. But like, I think the most obvious explanation for why the scoring is down is because all the good offenses are being wasted on mediocre to average quarterbacks and all the good quarterbacks are stuck in mediocre to average offenses. I think that's the biggest explanation. We have Jalen Hurts wasting Philadelphia's

Philadelphia's supporting cast. We have Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, where he has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and one of the better play callers to start the season. We have Goff wasting that offensive line sometimes. We have Brock Purdy, who I think he's playing well, but if you put Patrick Mahomes in that offense, they're scoring 50 points a game and scoring's right back up. We have Tua in Miami. Darnold is in Minnesota with that supporting cast. And then you look at the other side, look at the top of the league. Like Josh Allen is throwing to Khalil Shakir. He's his best receiver.

Patrick Mahomes' best receiver is a 38-year-old tight end, and his second best receiver is facing eight felony charges. They just signed Kareem Hunt to help out with the running game, who has been dead for three years. Yeah, their great hope is Hollywood Brown coming back. Justin Herbert, another bad situation. Trevor Lawrence, we just talked about it. Another bad situation. Burroughs got one receiver. Burroughs got one receiver, and he's hurt all the time. Dak Prescott. Mike McCarthy...

I can't believe he's getting away with this for a second straight year. Especially as the play caller. Now that he's the play caller and we can evaluate what he's bringing to the table, I'm surprised Jerry Jones didn't move on from last offseason. But Dak Prescott, he's been put in a bad situation. So we have these top quarterbacks kind of overcoming their environment. Isn't that a cause and effect though, Ruiz? Because you're paying so much for your quarterback. It's not like you can then...

get 70 weapons for him. You know, you're the biggest, most expensive quarterbacks. They're 40 or 50 million bucks a year.

So now you have to like try to patch it together and grab Curtis Samuel and Shakir. And that's, those are your receivers. And hope you get lucky with James Cook. I do think that's part of it. But a lot of these guys just signed their deal. So it hasn't really taken effect. And like a lot, and some of the other guys, like Goff is making 50 million. Two is making 50 billion. Baker Mayfield is making 35 million. Like these other guys are getting paid too. Like Derek Carr is making 30 million and he's benefiting from a great supporting cast right now. So I think that's really the issue.

And I think there's other issues that obviously factor into it. I think the O-line thing, like the O-lines aren't good anymore. I think that has to do with it. I do think like playing more too high coverages and not selling out to stop the run, that also helps. But like, that's been a thing for the entire NFL. Like the 70 Steelers were the original cover two teams.

But the thing that's changed the most is the preseason and the practice time, which just doesn't exist anymore. Like, I couldn't believe this because I don't follow the preseason. Nobody plays. But that Bryce Young really only played like one series in the preseason. It's like, how do you not have that dude out there for three quarters a game trying to build his confidence up against four stringers? You're just saving him for the season. He hasn't done anything. Well, it turns out he's a four stringer, too. But it's like Michael Penick's not playing. Yeah.

It's just mind boggling to me. But that seemed more sinister though. I think they didn't want a situation where he was awesome in preseason. They'd obviously seen Kirk at that point and that he couldn't really move. And I think that was like, let's leave Caitlin Clark off the Olympic team because everybody's going to be talking about her the whole time, even though she probably belonged.

But I think that's the biggest reason. I don't think it has to do with like this too high coverage thing, because like people have been playing those coverages forever. Like Tony Dungy was playing it. Levy Smith was playing it. Like that's not what it is. It's I do think like the post 2011 CBA is a different league than it was beforehand. No question. You can feel it when you watch all the games. The timing just seems off constantly. Yeah.

Like constantly. And every game you're watching, it's like, oh, that guy fucked that up. Oh, that seemed off. Oh, false start. Oh, that guy jumped too soon. And it just feels choppy. And look at the talent at the quarterback position we have. Like, I don't know if, just name it random, I don't know if Dak Prescott is better than whoever was the fifth best quarterback in 1995.

But, like, the quarterbacks didn't have this well-rounded skill set. Even the top guys. Like, Peyton Manning wasn't doing what Lamar Jackson is doing for his team. He couldn't be in the run game. He couldn't scramble. The thing on Brady was, like, if you get pressure up the middle, he's cooked. Like, you can't step up in the pocket. He's no longer... You get...

You get pressure up the middle on Patrick Mahomes, it doesn't matter. He just, you know, he rolls out and he finds an open guy anyway. And I think that's more common now. And we don't see as much as like the limited skill set. Like even Brock Purdy, I'm going to give Brock Purdy some credit. The reason why he's better than Jimmy G is he's not a statue. Like he's willing to make a play and he makes plays out of structure all the time. If Jimmy G was in that Lions NFC title game, they lose that game.

Well, that's why I can't wait when the Pats finally unleash the Drake May Monster in week five, which I'm hoping. His ability to escape a pass rush, create extra time. I don't know if we've had that as a Patriots fan. I don't know if I've ever had it. Because even like Bledsoe, he couldn't really move around. Brady could buy time in the pocket, but he wasn't a rollout. I'm going to...

I've just never rooted for somebody who could do that. Yeah, Brady actually hated that stuff. There's like a coaching clinic. He didn't want to get hit. Bill O'Brien was like, yeah, we could have done this stuff, but Brady was like, I don't want to do this. So, you know, you catered to Tom Brady. He's Tom Brady. But yeah, that's...

It just wasn't a thing back in the day. Like you didn't have these guys that could be so much of your offense. And maybe that's part of it too. Like we're putting so much on these quarterbacks and expecting them to like patch up all this other stuff. That's why we're paying them so much money. It's just hard. It's a 53-man roster. It's a 22-man sport. It's really hard. Ruiz, great job as always. I'm sorry about the Panthers. I'm glad you have a little bit of hope with Andy Dalton. But always fun to hear your takes. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.

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at chase.com slash Sapphire Reserve. Cards issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC. Subject to credit approval. Terms apply. All right, our friend Craig Horlbeck is here. He is the producer of the Rewatchables. You can hear him on the very excellent Ringer Fantasy Football Show. He helps out with the town with Matt Bell and is always a busy guy. Are fantasy quarterbacks dead, Craig? They look like it right now. It's a mess right now out there. I mean...

Passing in general is just in a massive decline through two weeks. There's been 69 touchdowns, which is the lowest in a decade. It was 105 five years ago. Now it's 69. What happened to us? Passing yards are the lowest they've been in like 10 years. Teams are averaging 193 passing yards a game. Like, I know Sal was complaining about it on Sunday night. Like, it's just not fun to watch. Mahomes is averaging 220 yards a game. Aaron Rodgers, 170. Justin Herbert's averaging 130 yards a game.

So are we back to net 2025 drafts? Quarterbacks are now $1 again and maybe kickers are the new inefficiency. I guess you got to spend like $9 on Brandon Aubrey.

Yeah. I mean, the whole, the kicking boom, I, we might have to add kickers back to fantasy. I booted them out of all my leagues cause I thought they were irrelevant, but now I love kickers. Kickers are the best. Now they're like kind of sneaky. Like genuinely, if you have a good kicker, it's like the third most important player in your offense. Cause now, now you get the ball at the 30 and guys are hitting 67 yarders. You only got to move the ball 20 yards to be able to hit a field goal. You need two first downs to kick a field goal. Now I did nothing right in fantasy this year, except in

In all three leagues, I have Dicker the kicker. And in all three leagues, the Steelers defense. And I prioritize them. I got them early. I threw both of them out in auctions when people aren't ready to really think about defensive kickers yet. Did the $2 on each. Just like, give me those two. I'm ready to go. The Steelers defense is, that has to be the number one defense, right? I don't know if they are by fantasy scoring. But just who you'd want. Yeah, I would say so. The only problem is their schedule the second half of the season is brutal. But right now they look great.

All right. I asked you to come on and do five favorites about the fantasy season so far. We're only two weeks in, but this is also the most fun part of fantasy. We have, we've already had devastating injuries, Christian McCaffrey, which by the way, if you've fucking read anything online or read anything, it, there was a lot of,

arrows pointing to him not being healthy at the start of the season, but it's even worse than we thought. Yeah, it was also, you know, it was a calf injury in the offseason and then the second the season started, oh, it's actually an Achilles injury.

Yeah, and by the way, you know this because you're a Warriors fan. A lot of times those two go hand in hand, the calf and the Achilles. You had to do it. The calf's the gateway drug to a worse injury with the Achilles. Yeah, Durant, it was the Raptors finals year when he hurt the calf, missed like half the playoffs, rushed it back, popped the Achilles. Yeah, that was Porzingis last year. All right, what do you got? My number one favorite thing, I mean, it's got to be the Saints, man.

The Saints boom is like the most improbable NFL storyline in years. Derek Carr, number two quarterback in fantasy. Kamara, number one running back in fantasy. Rashid Shahid, number eight wide receiver in fantasy. And that doesn't even mention that the actual probable best player on their offense is Chris Alave, who I think is going to pop really soon. And their kicker?

All of a sudden their kicker's getting picked up. Yeah, it's weird because you, I, we have the same strategy, I think, where sometimes you want to go in and just grab an offense that you like. Nobody would have had the Saints offense. That would not have been a combo. And it's this Clint Kubiak thing. The Shanahan thing, the coaching tree is getting so ridiculous where it's like literally everybody who comes from under him and McVay to a degree is just so good. Did you know that there's a second Kubiak who's the passing game specialist on the Niners?

What? Yeah. How are there this many Kubiaks? That's Clay Kubiak. And then I found out like the Hemsworths, there's a third Kubiak whose name is Klein Kubiak and he's a scout for the Cowboys. He'll definitely be the head coach of that team in like two years. So he did the thing where he named all his kids with vaguely similar first names that are all spelled close. Hopefully the middle names are not Ks. Yeah, that would be a bad move. Yeah.

But yeah. Do you think the Saints thing is real? Like what's the take of the fantasy show? Are you buying? We're buying. All the history of putting up that many points in the first two games of the season is really favorable. I am buying it. I think the Clint Kubiak thing is real. The joke we were making on the fantasy show is like, man, how bad was Pete Carmichael, the former OC of the Saints? Like that guy just must have been the worst. And if you look at the numbers, it's kind of true. The Saints last year were dead last in play action and motion. They're first.

in both this year. So you're like, all right. I mean, the Saints haven't even been tested. Derek Carr has the least amount of pass attempts in the league. He's averaging 19 pass attempts a game and he's the number two quarterback in fantasy. I mean, this is a joke. I thought they were going to be horrible. So did everybody. I didn't understand how prehistoric their offense was. I just thought Carr sucked. I didn't realize like they, Sean, there was some good articles about it this week that Sean Payton

When he left, he just kind of left his offense behind. And then the people that took over were like, oh, this is how we do stuff. And it's super complicated and dated. And then Kubiak came in and just was like, hey, we're going to move some stuff around. But they have speed. Because I didn't watch the game Sunday, but I ended up watching it after.

And it was striking how fast they were. They feel like they're the fastest team in the league. It was a little 99 Rams-ish. Yeah, and they're like getting the ball to these guys in space now. Kamara looks like old Kamara. Chris Alavi's getting the ball in space. Raheet Shaheed is super fast. And I think the big thing everybody was worried about was that the offensive line was going to be a mess. And the offensive line isn't good, but Kubiak is scheming it up, so it's not really a problem.

I believe their offense. I'm not sure if I believe them. It's my biggest loss of all my preseason stuff because I was out on the Saints. I was out on the NFC South. But they're definitely going to score points and be heard from, it feels like. Yeah, and you look at somebody like Brock Purdy who can thrive in this Niner system because the Shanahan offense is so advantageous. It makes it work. Derek Carr is a guy who's perfectly capable of making all those throws. He has the tools and he has the brains to do it. What actor is Derek Carr?

Wow. He's like, he was never quite good enough to be the lead of a movie, but he's been in some really good movies. But then when he got his chance to have his own movie, it was terrible, but he's still kind of lingering. It's gotta be somebody who was always good or basically when they were in a movie with a good director, they really popped. And you were like, wow, when they're in the right system, they can really work. I don't know if it's like putting an actor in a Tarantino movie and they just come off the screen.

I got to workshop that one. I got to think about that. All right. So you're in on the Saints. What's your next one? The old school fantasy is kind of back and the running back.

renaissance is here because of all the passing slump stuff running back is back and they're playing all three downs again because these offenses don't want to don't want defenses to know what they're doing if you have a guy who's just like your third down guy you know you're passing so all these guys Saquon Brees Hall Bijan Ramondre ETN Kyron Williams

they're all just playing a ton now. And it's great. This is what I grew up playing fantasy with. It was like you needed to get LaDainian Tomlinson because he never came off the field. And right now, every position is struggling except running back. They're once again the only thing that matters in fantasy. It's like the cable bundle. It's like it's coming back, you know? Bundling is back. Running backs are back. I just want to say I really appreciate you throwing Romandre in with all those other awesome running backs. He's doing well. Jordan Mason.

Yeah. There's been a lot of them. Yeah. I do feel like we're back to like the, the early nineties. Cause yeah,

Now, thinking back to five, six years ago, that stretch when all of a sudden Mahomes was going for like 24 bucks and you kind of felt like you had to have one of the best quarterbacks or you had no chance of winning your fantasy league. And now I think that's over. Yeah, now it's like it used to be a lot of running back by committees. Now, this year, there's 12 running backs playing 80% of the snaps. Last year, we were at seven. That's crazy. Well, right now, Kamara...

has the most fan. Our leaders for fantasy points right now, at least in my knockout league, Alvin Kamara, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, and Kyler Murray is our top four. Yeah. I wonder what that, what that quadfecto would have paid in Vegas. If you predicted that after week two, here's our top four. And fancy Alvin Kamara. I remember a year ago, you guys were doing the research about how his legs were different sizes and they were all excited that they had

gotten them close to the same size. Maybe they finally figured out his legs. They did. I think he says his legs are now the same weight. It was the muscles in his legs were imbalanced. Christian Watson, the receiver on the Packers had the same issue. That's why he kept getting hurt. He fixed it. He didn't miss a single, uh, single day of practice in the off season. And he's been healthy so far. So I kind of believe in that. He's been healthy so far running wind sprints as Malik Willis, uh, just hands the ball off. Yeah. Not great. If you drafted a Packers wide receiver, like I did. Um, yeah. All right. What's your number three?

J.K. Dobbins? He's back. Yeah, I mean, every year there's kind of a guy or two in fantasy that will define the season. There's always a waiver-wire guy. You know, last year it was Raheem Mostert who went for like three bucks and then led the league in touchdowns and swung a bunch of leagues. And now, you know, it's like...

there's years where you pick up like Philip Lindsay off waivers. I remember when I was in high school, I think DeMarco Murray, I grabbed him like week four on the Cowboys and he like won my season. J.K. Dobbins looks like that guy this year. He leads the league in rushing despite being 21st in carries. Chargers are just running the shit out of the ball. Gus Edwards, the other guy, looks old. And, you know, the Harbaugh energy, Dobbins loves Harbaugh.

I think comeback player of the years and play for him. I mean, again, we talked about Achilles tears. He tore his knee in eight different ways three years ago and then tore his Achilles last year. And now he's back. He's only 25 years old, but this is ridiculous. All right. So the top five running backs right now in fantasy through two weeks are Kamara, Barkley, Dobbins, A-Chain, and James Cook. Yeah.

And then Brees is down. Brees will be hurt. We're taping this before the Pats-Jets game. The two that I feel like will really be heard from are Brees and Derrick Henry. I'm not sure about Bijan, as spectacular as he is, just because I don't have a feel for that team yet. Can I make the case for James Cook potentially being RB1 at the end of the year? It just feels like he's the most integral of all of these dudes on a good team.

week after week after week for how they're going to move the ball. I mean, obviously it's Josh Allen on his team, but the explosiveness, I think he's going to get touchdowns. He catches the ball in the backfield. He's already at almost 19 points a game, but he's really jumped out to me the first two weeks. I didn't know if last year was going to continue with him and it feels like it has, right?

Yeah, he was just that guy that always got like vultured by Josh Allen in the red zone. He was good. He got you to the 10, but now it seems like they're easing up on Josh Allen. Brandon Bean, the GM of the Bills, is like, we don't want Josh to run all the time. We want to preserve Josh a little bit. Good for James Cook. Yeah, and it's actually, it's working. We'll see. I think when the game is on the line, Josh will, you know, stick his head down and run into anything. But right now, yeah. So who do you have as your top three RBs right now? Like if you're starting over in fantasy.

I still think Brees Hall is probably the number one guy I would take. Brees is still right there, and I think the Jets are going to get better. Again, we're taping this for the Jets game today, but I don't like how Braylon Allen is kind of already renting a cottage on Brees Hall's corner. Yeah, that kind of ruined my Sunday. Yeah, it's weird because he's good. He is good. They used Brees on a decoy once and gave it to Braylon Allen. I still think my top three, it's Saquon, it's Brees Hall, and it's HM, I think. Oh, the veal chop.

which he's my next, if you want me to do my next guy, it's, it's the number, this is number four. Yeah. It's the H and Skylar Thompson era is going to unleash a Chan. That'd be fine. The H on thing, the H and things paying off. Well, yeah, we were talking about how he's, he's the veal chop. It's like the item on the menu that you weren't sure is worth the $80 item that you're not sure whether you should get it or not. David Chang, incredibly upset about that take, by the way. Why?

He thinks the veal chop's great and I'm disparaging the veal chop and he's against it. You know, it's funny. I don't even think I've ever had a veal chop. How is the veal chop different than like, what is the difference between a veal chop and a steak?

Sometimes it can be super fatty. They undercook it a lot. Like it's really hard to get the temperature perfect on it. You have to be at the right restaurant. And there's just a lot of ways it can go wrong. But Chang's like, you're wrong. You're just going to the wrong restaurants. The veal chop's great. So it's just like more, it's a more temperamental steak. It's just because it's a baby cow, right? Yeah.

Yeah, you're eating a baby cow. That's lovely. You don't think about that part. Sorry, I guess calf. We say calf, so you don't have to say the word baby. So A-Chan, you feel like this is legit. He's going to have at least a couple of those like 35-point games, crazy games. I think so. We're fine. He's the third best guy in fantasy right now at running back. And...

you know, you pair a guy who's like the fastest player in the league with McDaniel's offense, which is a massive cheat code. And it's kind of the perfect combination. He just needs to stay healthy. What's lucky for him is Raheem Mostert's already hurt. He's on IR. And,

and they're starting to throw to 8chan a lot more. Skylar Thompson, although that's going to be probably pretty tough in general for Dolphins fans, he checks down a ton. And 8chan caught a ton of passes in week one. I think he's going to get the ball 25 times a game. Maybe he should sell high because he weighs 175 pounds and he'll probably get hurt. Have one good game and then trade him. Yeah, so maybe that's the case. But for right now, I think you're riding really, really hot with him. And it paid off. We had him in his own tier.

When we ranked our guys because he was like so unique. Who's your fifth guy? This isn't, this is a favorite because I think it's hilarious, but I just think it's, it's awesome that all the tight ends suck again. Laporte is beyond sucking. I think he's, he might be dead. Where is he? Yeah, they're all bad. And I feel like this was the year where we finally decided that tight ends finally good. It was like, oh, this is great.

And there's not even a clear number one. It used to be Kelsey, then a little bit of Mark Andrews, and then the rest of it was crap. And you would spend $30 on Travis Kelsey and that was it. This year it was like, oh, everything's fine. You got Kelsey. Laporte is now the new guy. Mark Andrews is still there. You have Trey McBride. Laporte is the new Kelsey. Yeah. Trey McBride in Arizona is frisky. Dalton Kincaid, this is the big leap year. Kyle Pitts finally has a good quarterback. Brock Bowers.

And now they're all terrible. You know, Travis Kelsey had one catch last week. He's the 28th best tight end in fantasy. And just like across the board, if you look at all the numbers, I was reading a lot of stuff online. I mean, tight ends have eight touchdowns through two weeks. That number's never been lower than 16 since 2014. Like we're just in a horrific spot again with fantasy tight ends. It's how it should be. It's like 2012 again. You just got to draft a running back. You don't give a shit about tight ends.

And everyone's hurt. There's one tight end I love. Can you guess? Brock Bowers? I think Brock Bowers is going to be the dominant tight end this year for fantasy stuff. They threw to him all the time. He catches everything. You can't cover him. And I think they finally figured that out in the second half. And I'm just expecting... I have him in one league.

I'm just, I'm so fired up. I just feel like he's going to be the best guy. McBride's weird because he was putting up some of those stats last year before they had Harrison. Yeah. So they have Harrison, you know, they have other good receivers. They got Connor and I just don't know if he's going to get the touches. And then you mentioned Kelsey, like they, you know, he's just,

He's just on ice until January. It's so obvious. So people are spending big bucks on him in drafts. I didn't get it. Yeah, he's been kind of replaced by Rasheed Rice as like the over-the-middle guy. And yeah, you don't need to play him. I think we should load management dudes like that. I mean, the Chiefs do not need Travis Kelsey to play 17 games. What about your guy? Who? Friar Muth.

To be honest, they don't use him that much. Arthur Smith is doing like, he has like two, three tight ends out there every play now. So he's all right. You know, the Steelers don't score a lot of points, unfortunately. Because at some point they're going to have to figure out, is there a second person on the team other than George Pickens that they can throw a pass to? I know they tried to steal the first two games on the road, not have Fields make any mistakes, but now playing

playing the Chargers this week. I just feel like that's not going to work. They've scored 31 points in two games. I know. Arthur Smith, I think, has been doing a really good job with Pittsburgh because he's putting Fields in positions to kind of succeed. Fields is basically just like, is my first read there? No. Is the second read there? No. Then I'll run. I mean, the Steelers haven't been down really that much. When they're down 14 in the third quarter,

Then I kind of think we'll see a little bit of the old fields. And yeah, outside of Pickens, we have the worst receivers in the league. I wanted IUK so badly. Is there, before you go, are there two people that we should be trying to trade for? Specifically me, because we're taping this well before the podcast goes up. Two people out there that are like kind of declining stocks that you feel like you should just swoop in and grab? Yeah. If you want, I mean, quarterback, I think you should absolutely go after Goff.

Goff right now

I think he's the 29th best quarterback in fantasy, but there's a metric out there called expected points, and he's second in that. Yeah, because they were 1-7 in the red zone last week. Yeah, I mean, he's still throwing the most. He has the second most yards. He's playing all of his games indoors. He has great weapons. I think if anybody's getting sour on him, you should definitely trade for him. I also think that Garrett Wilson and Olave are two awesome number ones on their team with good systems and good quarterbacks. I think they'll pop.

Trying to think of who else. And then I actually love, my guy is Khalil Shakir on the bills. I think he's really good. I just think every time he catches the ball, he's great.

And I'm in two leagues and he's, he's great. The one I was thinking, and I have him, unfortunately on every team is I, I do feel like there's going to be a DJ more moment. Yeah. Cause Caleb looks so like fish out of water the first couple of weeks, but DJ more was open a few times. There were stories this week about how his body language was bad on the sidelines. Cause he was getting so frustrated. He's like, yeah, you're right. I got to work on that.

But he's getting open and they're going to eventually figure out how to get the ball to him would be my guess. I agree. We mentioned them on our Wednesday fantasy show. We did Bilos and we had the, honestly, the whole Bears receiving room. But it is nice. I will say George Pickens is no longer the least happy receiver in the league, body language wise. So that's good. Pickens and Fields are kind of friends. Yeah, because Pickens knows now he's going to have

have his one catchy game that gets called back because of holding. Yeah. There's going to be another, another play where he's passed interfered for 50 yards. It doesn't count as fantasy, but he created the drive and then he'll make one awesome play. Yeah. He's the best like out of bounds receiver in the league. His highlights of, of plays that were just out of bounds is better than anybody in the history of football. That catch he made last week where it didn't even seem clear on the TV how he caught the ball.

Where he was just running and the ball, it was like somebody just dropped the ball. It was like CGI or Forrest Gump or something. He has a good connection with fields. He honestly does. You can admit that you like fields. Go ahead. I do. It's fun right now. This is good. But again, we played the Broncos and it hasn't really exactly been that tough. We're winning games like 16 to 10.

But yeah, I like him. He's playing like an adult. We'll see if he gets triggered and then reverts back to his old ways. But right now, Smith kind of has him in a nice little zone. Am I the only person you know who picked the Steelers to make the playoffs? Yeah. You think they will? I actually do. I think their defense is that good. And I think their defense can actually go up a level. They're playing...

teams like they're playing Denver last week and Denver's just trying not to have Bo Nix really do anything and Chargers this week. Same thing. They're just going to try to run the ball in the first half. You're not gonna be able to run the ball in the Steelers, but when they start playing some of these better teams, I think their defense is going to rise to the occasion. I think they're really good. Yeah. I don't know. Would you rather have fields or rust then if you're trying to get into the playoffs? I like what fields does. I think they've figured out

how to get fields to gravitate toward the stuff that he's good at and maybe not try. But he's still like, he's done it a couple of times already in the first two games. Like he'll, they'll snap the shotgun and he's looking over the tight end. I'll like hit him in the mask. He'll fumble a snap. Like he can't, he's going to put the ball on the ground at least once a game. You just have to know that going in, but they've been really careful about not throwing the ball over the middle with him, which was like his big,

Arizona. I like how he's playing. I think his teammates like him too. Like I think Pickens likes him. Definitely. They seem like legit friends. It's like they're kind of have a thing together. I think, I think Fields is like a real locker room guy. DJ Moore loves him. He was upset that he left. He was like, you know, he was getting angry at reporters who were saying that Fields wasn't good. I think people really, really like him. And yeah, that's the thing. If you have a coach and a quarterback that the team likes,

It's a good start. You got a good defense. Great start. They have a home field advantage they haven't even used yet. They have it on a home game. I know. Yeah, they're doing a good job. And then they're in a division that, do you like anybody else in that division? I know. It's tough. The Ravens might be 0-3 on Sunday night. This is probably going to be a 9-8, 10-6 division. Whoever wins. And you have an awesome kicker, which is a weird experience. Yeah, Boswell has quietly been the best offensive player in the Steelers in the 2020s.

I like the Steelers. Yeah, I think the AFC has hit this point. Just put the Chiefs on the side. Yeah. Where if you start going through who are the other best teams, everybody has one unit that does something really well and then holes, right? The Bills have, they got Josh Allen and then it's like, eh. And then you go to like Baltimore. It's like, they got Lamar. It's like, oh, they can't block. I know you can throw on them. Everybody's got something. So Pittsburgh's things are,

Are like, yeah, they're not explosive. Okay. Yeah, I don't know. They're kind of built to win in December and January with what they have. I just, I like their team. I can't explain it. I've seen this too many times. They're going to go. I know you have. They're going to go nine and eight and lose by 30 in the playoffs. You're the healthiest you've been heading into late September though. Knock on wood. True. Yeah, that's fair. Usually, yeah, TJ Watt didn't get hurt. Cam Hayward's playing. Yeah, things are all right right now. Knock on wood. The other thing is you can trade for another receiver.

Can we? Who? But you can just get like Kendrick Bourne in mid-October and at least have somebody who can get open on a third down. We definitely need to do that because Calvin Austin and Van... I can't name your second receiver. Yeah, it's Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and a rookie Roman Wilson out of Michigan. I've watched both of your games and I don't remember any of those guys involved really at all. Jefferson had a couple plays, I guess, but... Yeah, they just get called for holdings because they weigh 160 pounds.

I like the Steelers. I think you should be more bullish. Craig Koralbeck, what was the rewatchable movie you hated the most this year? Purple Rain? I didn't love Purple Rain. I respected Prince's performance, but the movie, come on. It was not a good date movie, it turned out. Purple Rain. No, Liz didn't love that one. What was the most popular date movie that we've done on the rewatchables this year?

Oh, this year? Yeah. I got to say, whenever I pitch them to Liz, I'm like, hey, it's called Night Shift. Henry Winkler, 1980. Michael Keaton. 82. She's like, I'm good. Yeah, it's these guys. They're going to run a brothel out of a morgue. Yeah. No bites. She likes Twister. We both hadn't seen Twister, so that was a good one. Yeah.

That's a good one. But yeah, we got Blair Witch coming on at some point. We just recorded that. I don't know when it's coming, but did you watch that one with her? Absolutely not. She had no interest in doing that. Oh, she's not. You're not a horror family. No, we're not. We're doing Horror Month, right? In October? I think we might do Horror Month. Yeah. See, now we're spilling rewatchables beans. That's fine. Do you want to tell people what Monday is going to be? No. Okay. I don't. It's too important. Okay.

You haven't seen it yet, though. No, I don't think anybody who's my age has seen that movie. OK, but that that doesn't mean it's not an incredible, awesome movie. I can't wait. Every time you give me a movie in this kind of category, I end up loving it. So I'm very excited. What was your favorite of that category without spoiling the movie? Does the Running Man count?

Yeah. Oh yeah. The Running Man was good. I love that movie. They're remaking it with Glenn Powell. Did you see that? You love toys. Yeah, I did see that. You love toy soldiers. I did love toy soldiers. Boarding school terrorist attack is like the most elite idea. You love some of the Seagal. Yeah. Under Siege was my favorite there. Yeah. I can't, I can't believe who I'm becoming. You like the Van Damme. You've liked some of that. Sudden Death. The hockey one is good. The hockey one. He has to play goalie.

Yeah, that's good. Yeah, there's a lot out there. I really liked War of the Roses. I know I'm switching gears, but yeah, look, you're putting me onto a lot of movies that I would have never, ever, ever watched. Oh, God, that's part of our job in the rewatches. All right, Craig, we're all back. You can listen to him on The Ringer, fantasy football show, an excellent show. Craig, good to see you.

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Craig and thanks to Ruiz and thanks to House and thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Sibruti for producing as well. Don't forget all of the videos and clips from this podcast are available on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel.

Have a great weekend. Don't forget to subscribe to our Ringer WNBA show because it's good and we're going to be reacting all through the playoffs and having a good time with that. And I will see you on this feed because live on YouTube on a Sunday night. Until then. I'm going to sit there on a wayside on a set a few years with you on the front side

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