cover of episode Raging Moderates — Should We Care about Polling Data? Trump vs. Harris on Economic Policies, and Predictions for the Debate

Raging Moderates — Should We Care about Polling Data? Trump vs. Harris on Economic Policies, and Predictions for the Debate

2024/9/10
logo of podcast The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

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Jessica Tarlov
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Scott Galloway
一位结合商业洞察和个人故事的畅销书作者、教授和企业家。
Topics
Scott Galloway: 本期节目讨论了最新的民调数据,两位候选人的经济政策以及对总统辩论的预测。Scott Galloway 认为全国民调没有意义,关键在于少数几个摇摆州的民调结果。他还批评了特朗普的关税政策,认为这实际上是对消费者的税收,并且不会带来预期的就业增长。他还批评了哈里斯的住房政策,认为向首次购房者提供补贴会导致房价上涨。最后,Scott Galloway 预测特朗普将在辩论中获胜,因为他认为人们对他的期望值较低,而哈里斯缺乏辩论经验。 Jessica Tarlov: Jessica Tarlov 同意全国民调没有意义,关键在于少数几个摇摆州的民调结果。她认为哈里斯和特朗普的总统竞选势均力敌,这反映了温和中间派在选举中的重要性。她认为哈里斯在经济问题上的劣势正在缩小,这表明她还有提升空间。她还认为,人们对特朗普的政治立场比较了解,而对哈里斯的了解相对较少,这为哈里斯提供了提升空间。最后,Jessica Tarlov 预测哈里斯将在辩论中获胜,因为她能够更好地向中间派选民传递信息。 Jessica Tarlov: 就经济政策而言,Tarlov 指出民调显示 Harris 在身体自主权和民主问题上表现更好,但在经济和移民问题上落后于 Trump。她认为 Trump 的经济优势部分源于人们对疫情前经济状况的怀旧情绪。她还分析了 Trump 的关税政策,认为民主党应该将其定义为对消费者的税收,而不是仅仅关注关税本身。关于 Harris 的经济计划,Tarlov 认为其包含带薪育儿假、儿童税收抵免、普遍的 3K 和学前教育以及普遍的托儿服务,并指出其计划中包括对高收入人群增税,而不是依赖关税。她还讨论了对未实现收益征税的提议,认为这可能会导致富人逃税。最后,Tarlov 认为 Harris 的住房政策可能只是为了争取选民好感,实际上并不能解决住房问题。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov discuss the latest polling data, which shows a neck-and-neck race between Harris and Trump. They analyze the polling trends in swing states, highlighting the importance of these states in deciding the election outcome. They also discuss the contrasting results from different pollsters and the potential reasons behind the tight race.
  • Harris and Trump are neck and neck in national polls.
  • Harris leads in some swing states.
  • Trump's support is consistent with previous elections.
  • Democrats are concerned about the closeness of the race.
  • The media may be exaggerating the closeness of the race.

Shownotes Transcript

Get ready for the election with us! Every Tuesday, Scott and The Five co-host Jessica Tarlov break down everything we need to know about the latest politics all through a centrist lens. 

Today, Scott and Jessica discuss the latest polling data, their thoughts on both candidates' economic policies, and their predictions for the presidential debate. 

Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov). 

Follow Prof G, @profgalloway).

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