Raging Moderates - The Final Week, John Kelly's Warning, and the Battle for Congress
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Welcome to region moderate. I'm sky deli .

and I and you .

are literally the recipient of the biggest pup piece. I have a seen for our listeners that don't subscribe the new york times or haven't seen IT in your social media feed, according the new york times. Jess is the personal facts of people love to hate, but they can't help loving. I have never .

seen show me the I read.

I like you and I wanted to throw up in my mouth. She's as Christ IT was. Even the pictures were fantastic.

I imagine if if i'm being granted, you're not itself absorb design release. I don't think you are. I would have trying to, what I would have just walk, papered my house in that article. Oh my gosh. H you must feel great.

It's pretty good. My liberal heart was warmed, let's say. And there's always these moments that breaks through you out of the fox orbit where my actual life knows what I do for a living and kind of can see IT.

So my text messages just full of, like parents and grandparents of you, I know that I like, oh my god, you're alive and you're doing this cool thing. No, IT was fabulous. They they did a IT was a very generous article for sure.

But I liked how much they captured about my background and also what i'm doing at fox. And they had great quotes from my colleagues. I have zero complaints, and you told me I would have a complaint, and I, and I don't. I got the pot piece of the center.

And yes, I was. I knew I would be good. I knew would be positive. But any kind of almost any, any, especially in europe, feels like they got to find a couple of people to say bad things about you and they they clearly .

couldn't find any. I'm not a White man, so feel like I .

had that going in my favor. Yeah I I kept waiting for, you know, a one thing some people SHE is some people say she's whatever too. You know, he gets the past because I never came.

IT was just talking to all these republicans who love you and all these democrats who adore you. Anyway, it's congratulations that there was really nice, very a nice moment for you. So today we're gonna talking about the final week of the campaign.

Joan kill is warning about trumps fascist behavior and the downed ballot races, uh, that we have our eyes on, right? So we are down to the final week. And god, cma Harris is pulling in Alice names to get voters fired up by and say, m and m was, I didn't sit out when coming.

Bruce brainstem, spindly, Samuel jaxx and just a name a few. Hilly clinton did something similar back in twenty sixteen, but Harris approach has been different. He has been calling herself the underdog wrong, where as clients campaign Carried an expectation of Victory, the rally and houston, with bound, say, was a largest yet. Let's listen to a climb.

We are at .

the presence of an incredible shift, the brink of history.

I'm not here as a celebrity. I'm not here as a politician.

I'm here as a mother, my mother who cares deeply about the world, my children and all of our children, a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies. A world, world, we're not divided. Our past, our present, our future merge to .

meet us here. This in the clip that is really making around, and I would arg, has been more powerful as the clip of Michelle obama. Or first from the first Michelle obama. What are your thoughts going the last week here? I give us your state to play around the .

race just so I am actually not having a huge anxiety day. So you caught me at a good moment where I am pretty optimistic. I'm heavily drugged actually.

Do I get there of this just casually on monday? So I been trying to look at like the actual data versus the vives. And it's interesting because it's the inverse of how we started out.

Remember that this was the vibes campaign, right? We were all coconut pilled charly ax ax gave us bread summer, and everyone was riding high on the fact that we felt like we had a chance. And now we have a lot of information from the ground of what's going on.

And gentle male dell in the campaign manager, what for comments campaign, was on the john socky on sunday, and he said, we knocked on one point two million doors in battleground states on saturday. That is mind blowing. How many people are out doing this? And there are the Christian brian skies of the world who are showing up on people's doors.

And bradley dfb and and all of that is great, but there are just regular people that are out there jazz to be doing this and the democrats doing IT and republicans doing IT. And that's giving me a lot of hope. There was a pull out that was really positive, but I wanted to ask you about beyond, say, I was he had performed.

That's always the downside. And this and of course, you had thirty thousand people because people thought they were going to beyond, say, concert. And I thought he was powerful and grade and revealed herself to have political messaging that maybe we didn't think that he had.

And I loved IT, but there was something that melle obama said that I feel like you probably wouldn't have loved. So the clip is circulating about what the implications of the jobs decision have. Obviously incredible. But he says to men that they need to take the lives of the women, the lives of the women in their lives, he said, are more articulate than I did seriously. And IT was in the same vein as one obama kind of school did black man in pencil vania before he did his first big rally ah for the campaign a few weeks back when they got a lot of criticism for what did you make of .

that part of machine messaging and you 宝贝， yeah i've been thinking a lot about i'm writing a book on masculinity and i've been thinking a lot about but what is an aspirational modern form masculinely and these words I come back to provide a protector appropriator. When I think a protector, I think, okay, at some point in your life, you know, first of a second degree, there's going to be someone in your life with an unplanned pregNancy.

And the notion that you don't immediately go to protection and think, alright, I want people in my life to have options, because the most medical ous saying about the spotted autonomy argument is that if you wanted to ensure IT was rejected in women, had bottled autonomy, all you would need to do is ensure that the rule was absolute. Because wealthy americans, and including wealthy republicans, kind of know that is something. If an unplanned pregNancy happens to them, or their knees or their daughter, they'll figure IT out.

Wealthy people will figure out out. And that's most medication saying about this. So this is really a war on poor women cryed Frankly, poor families of seventeen year old black woman who becomes pregnant doesn't have a lot education.

Single parent maybe hides a pregNancy, doesn't have resources, can ship to atlanta determinate the pregnant y he doesn't have access to medical abortion. And her message was, if you're a man, how I read IT, your job is to protect people, maybe not even in your direct sphere that your job is a man. You're supposed to protect women.

And if you look at why women, generally speaking, and this is going to sounds success, but there's research to show this why they're attracted demand or one of the features are attracted to as they want a man who physically and elections and financially gives them the impression that would shake its real, that man can protect them. And this seems just at the very core of that the the dude, yeah think about your own economic well, bang. But you're instinct, your muscle memory should be to protect and this is you're not protecting us right now by not showing up and pushing back on this. You are not protecting us. I thought, I thought that was the most powerful part of her speech.

When I first heard IT, I thought, yeah, exactly. Especially having gone through two pregnancies recently and given birth is is one of the most fragile and frightening things you can do. You're one step away from a medical emergency for nine, ten months straight.

And IT is a miracle every time that one of these babies is delivered safely and that the mom is good and that the baby is good. So I totally get that. I just I took a step back because we're focused on getting men to support the democratic party in this last hostel here.

And I wondered about that kind of twenty eight year old guy who feels like the democratic party is an interested in him or the thirty five year old guy or the forty two, whatever, up to through janice, like the the jensie millennial. And I didn't know how that would set with them. I hope that they heard that the way that you did, because that's how I did. But I I feel like i'm sometimes so clouded by my own extra gin that per perhaps I can see IT clearly anymore.

Well, just the idea. And I think it's important to remind Young men of this, your ability to be a provider, you want to, you want to, you want to be imposed shed for the rest your life, be the father of an unwanted, pregnant Young age. Yeah, I mean that this affects you to just being selfish.

If you're Young man one, you're gna have less sex and less bottle autonomy restored. Think about the reason. Why mean essentially men want to spread their seat to the four quarters of the earth, and women put up a much final filter to trying to track the smart strongly and faster. See, I know that sounds reductive and crude, but I have evidence to prove this. And because of the downside of pragmatic, cy is so much greater for women and for men, women are more selective when IT comes to random sexy encounters.

And if you ask Young man, would you rather have more or less random sexual encounters that might turn into a relationship, that might turn into a family, that might turn into the kids? I got to think ninety plus percent of Young men, but think, yeah, i'd rather have more opportunity for sexual encounters if women believe that the downside of pregNancy might be they have to Carry the baby to term. Or worse, they end up in an emergency room parking lot with success because doctors are afraid to treat her.

You're gonna have less sex, man. So I got that is very selfish reasons why men should be fighting for Harrison bodily autonomy. And I don't think men have gotten, have received the message. The thing I wanted to get your impression for I, I love unexpected surprises and i'm this is my new thesis on what I think it's going to a play a critical role election that no one saw coming.

The october surprise, I think, is here and it's the following and i've love to kid your response tony hand Cliff, who i'd never heard of, he's an actor kind of made famous or so comedian made famous by joe rome. And address the audience at the trump a medicine square garden. And let me start off with, I was shocked by how many trump supporters they were able to turn up out in manhattan.

You know, there are trains to long island that take you to write IT.

but it's a big stadium. And IT was a cause, I thought, in deep blue territory. IT was really impressed that they, about so many die hard, enthusiastic trump supporters. So this comedian goes on to basically say, you know, there is this fifty ten, you know, island of floating trash in the carbon in its porter re go.

there is literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah, I think it's called porter eco.

There are four hundred thousand, porter reckons in pencillings.

ia. I thought .

this comment was so not only did not land, and I think you've A A comedians of pretty wide birth. I am very forgiving of comedians that, but this seem to illuminate the trump DNA in such a negative way. And that clip has gone viral in a few reporter weekend, who may be with supporting hair, but not that enthusiastic.

And wasn't onna turn out? I think SHE might get an incremental ten or fifteen thousand votes in pennsylvania, which might swing pennsylvania, which might swing the election. I think tony hinch Cliff and name hinch Cliff might be the october surprise that Harris fans are looking for.

So I was following along to the rally via x of driving back from seeing disc junior the live show. We could talk about that another day.

You know, that would be a toss up for me, a trump rally, or the does not that I really wouldn't what to do there.

I struggled, hard core struggled, went down a kind of to red bank, new jersey.

total charm country, to see disney .

junior and my daughter looking like he stroked out when he saw many in person, which was adorable. The little kid dancing is so cute. But anyway, i'm following along to this mystery hot mess.

And I too, I wasn't surprised that he filled the arena, but I was talking to friends who were, and they're including reporters who said, it's super common here. Everyone is really nice IT feels quite joyous, celebratory of everything that Donald trump t is as a show man and entertainer. And I totally get IT like he's a lifelong new york ker.

You come back, you sell out the garden and not sell out. But you know what I mean, you fill the garden. And I had heard tony hen's Cliff before, because he was part of tom bride's roast.

And I thought he was hilarious, making fun of tom brady, which is a little bit different than making fun of porter. Rick s like that. And that was the first kind of set of clips that release stood out to me as concerning for the trump campaign, because you saw the immediate backlash.

So bad money was upright away in is forty million. Forty five million followers with a video that koala had cut for porter weekends posted that then jay low, then Ricky Martin, so within like ten minutes, one hundred and fifteen million followers had been activated against stoned d trump. Because of this clip. And IT was a reminder to a lot of people, and I think Ricky Martin actually used old, the old footage of trump after hurting maria, where he shot up in through paper towels. Add people who had just had their homes absolutely disseminate.

And I thought, okay, this might be, in your words, the october surprise of IT, which is basically that trump can never just stick with a good thing like people think you're kind of human and that you kind of don't think these things and because you want to have the raunchier and the funnest guy here. And by the way, first amendment protected IT was a joke. I didn't find that funny.

I don't think we should be policing comedians in any way. But a comedy show and a political rally are very different. And you can expect if there had been a comedians for commodate an and you had john mEllen's up there, he wasn't going to be insulting people like that is gonna making fun of themselves.

Even if you had someone more out there like dave chapel or bill burr, they might make a few policy jokes like biller actually has this hilarious, but that he does about abortion and he is approached his supporter, but he basically talks about how IT is murder and it's like a half baked pie. He's like not onna say that it's not a pie just because you only have baked IT, right? Like those are all things that I can get on board with, but there is no way that they would have stepped over the line that far.

And then so you have the liberal supporters that come out. But then you see the conservatives like rick scot, senator from florida, who is in a reelection battle, immediately says, this is, this is not right. This is not what I think a porter ekins, porter gans are great people.

You see other top officials. We're going to talk a little bit about downtown let races, a tarzi in the podcast. There's a guy deposit who's out in suffer county, he looks like he's going to lose his race or republican former cop, I think he was the only vulnerable democrat or republican.

Congresswomen or woman from new york actually showed up at the rally. He's immediately has to say what the f is this. I don't think this at all. So I think IT was a complete disaster.

Not to mention that that you even Miller goes on to say amErica is for americans and americans only want to bring to really bring the messaging home. But i'm sure that what felt like a joyous occasion in the aftermath, you know, the trump camie n put out a statement saying that IT doesn't reflect their views. Well, i'm sorry, it's pretty precisely your campaigns views if you pick the guy and the joke was loaded in the teleprompter, right? He didn't make this up. He wasn't reefing.

Yeah I I would fire Harris. I'd be taken some of precious air timed that they have blocked across every local news station and kind of the full employment act for local broadcast news stations in pennsylvania, the swing states. And I would just be running that clip.

But this is what the republican party thinks of. Thanks of our, you know, brothers and sisters here in amErica at that struck me as, wow. I this can't.

And this is a real, this is a significant population. And I would imagine that this qualifies as a population that a might not be is inclined to vote for. Harris instructs me, this is really further around.

And they they've just given us a ping democrats to the haris campaign, a soft ball here. I wonder if this is going to be, especially in pennsylvania. I had no idea.

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Meanwhile, trump is making his closing argument leaning heavily into a message of fear, particular around immigration. He had a bigger family, as we reference at md, with many the same folks that appeared at the ironclad. He also went on joe rogan spot cast, which I thought was a very smart on on the part of their campaign, which is huge as rogan has fourteen million spotify followers.

This was, I felt like, an attempt to appeal to Young, low propensity male voters. Let's listen to, okay, so I have a is very smart and to barn right and he knows all about you. He knows about guys I never heard of.

He said, dad, you don't know how big they are there big? You know, somehow I said, who like ross, I didn't. He said, dad, he's a great guy.

I mean, guy I said to do, it's a whole new world out there. It's a different congrats really. Well, no, but you know the crazy, have you seen the numbers of billions? Like billions of hits is great.

A wild thirty points. A republican is always down thirty with Young people. I'm plus thirty, and I want to take A I think Young, Young people are rejecting a lot of this Walker ll shit.

Young people are tired to being yelled out and scalded. They're tired of these people that they think are mentally ill, telling them what the moral standards the society should be today. People are upset. Is that just what was .

three hours? So I have many thoughts. I think net, net a positive for him to do that exposure is always a good thing, especially when he's weaving.

I think that's the term he likes that one way rogan is like he got to weave a little less right like I am actually trying to ask you something here. Um obviously that study throughout is completely incorrect. The final harvard youth poll came out and cheese up third with Young voters to be expected.

And people should cross tab, dive through the abc poll from the weekend, which was really good for her head, her up for, but also performing Better with black man and let you know, men. And biden did even. So we'll see if that ends up checking out.

But one thing that rogan did that I admired him for, and I also thought that the venue was so perfect for him to do this, because I was not adversary at all. He called him out on the B. S.

About winning the twenty twenty election in a, in a direct way, but also a comforting way so that trump didn't feel like he was being accused of something necessarily rogan just said, are you ever gonna show us what you're talking and and that's always been the problem that the tell this grand story of stolen votes um and all these poll workers that were cheating and all of the in active season draws and blood of blood and they have never shown anything and people didn't have gone to jail. We'll go to jail for that. I mean, really, Juliane owns nothing anymore.

Those election workers in georgia owned his apartment on the upper side as a result of all of this. So I really appreciated that rogan did that, and he said in his interview that the negotiations with commons team are still alive. Where is commons spokesperson said that he was a no go, said I was due to scheduling. So I obviously that's not the case, and I assumed that SHE wanted some garbage that he wouldn't offer, but I think SHE totally .

should do IT you like what could happen .

to you is that could have be worse than losing the election? I don't know that things like the rest.

Now he's he, he as an interviewer. One thing I do like about rogan, when I started procter, and I was used to think, was my job to have a gotcha moment. And then I realized some parasite, something to struck me, that he tries to present people in their best light.

yeah. And I try to do that now and actually rogow push back. But he doesn't. He doesn't try to have a got to moment like bread bear was trying to corner her. He started with some club.

He was trying to, he had questions that we got to a questions with a follow thinking he would respond this way, and quite Frankly, cn, as the same thing to candidates who are from the right. He doesn't do that. He would have come out of this much more positive than, as we've said, trump going on.

Rogan reached more people than if he had gone on prime time, C, N, N, M, S, M B C and fox every night, every week, night for a week. In this guy that he really has changed the completion of the media landscape. Is this podcast.

I think it's a huge mistake for her, not we've done that. And then I had this weird trigger ing moment. I listened at clip and that is, he described the Sunny said, so I have a son who's very smart and tall. And I thought as a father, I would just never and tall like, who care I that is like the last way I would describe my son.

I, I, I .

wouldn't. He's obsessed with .

physically weird. All be cooler. He was a basket player, and you say, is really all is a bus pot player.

yeah. And he happy there. A wonderful experience that I thought this guy just is approached of fathering. I just found that so weird that dad would describe his on that way. Anyway.

what did you can I just quickly before we get offset? So he I mean, three hours again, a lot of opportunity. We ve, but he did a lot of historical stuff, so he was wrong about which son of lincoln died. But he is talking about like machines and origins of tariffs. And I couldn't really follow a tone of IT, but I wonder if that does make a low information voter think this guy knows more about what he's talking about, that he actually does, that you can even like throw these names until, because you know how something when you're so overwhelmed and the zone is so perverse ative flooded by things that you just hear, a few things that you assume that someone gets IT or knows what they're talking about.

Look, I hate to admit I didn't listen all three hours. I didn't listen rogan or relax treatment. And they are kind of the original gangsters are both fantastic and what they do. And i've said despite that, I don't agree with a lot of a joes comments every podcasts or should send a royalty and a rogan because he's kind of busted open the medium, but on the whole heat, that was a big win for him because put putting him in a relaxed atmosphere, he is sophs s his image and he needs that right now he comes across as the kind of guy.

At least I thought trump came across as the kind of guy when I thought he came old and add not having any sense of history or clearly has not only doesn't fact check himself, but doesn't think anyone's gona fact check him that will have any important, you can just say what every wants, but he came across as a guy you could grab a beer with. He came across, in my opinion, is more likable. He did, at one point, color laugh at himself the the data itself or the historical inaccuracies were just everywhere but IT doesn't seem to matter and um van Jones had kind of the rate I mean and and Michelle obama brought IT up as well but van Jones said at first on CNN you know he's lawless and she's expected to be flow less.

This is the mother of all grading on a curve that is entirely different IT just, I mean, she's that everyone is waiting and again, the shall was so powerful everyone's waiting to pass every word he says on an interview and then he gets up and says that that is blind, wrong and weird and never happened, or goes off on a crazy tangent or says, I don't want to answer questions. Let's listen to music if if he did any of the things, he doesn't any interview, IT would be like democrats and the press would be like, oh my god, cheese lost, chose lost ah the Harris campaign is absolutely screwed up, absolutely screwed up. Not going on.

Rogan IT would have been a huge way for the last thing he was going to do would be to go after the democratic female candidate of color. He just wouldn't have gone there in. In general, joe does try to give people some running room and give them, in my opinion, he gives them too much the benefit of the dead when he brings on a total fuck and quack to say the M R N A vx ines out to your DNA he doesn't say, well, is there any peer review research that says there's any veracity that statement? And if you knew this actually pulled my pilot is spotify for a year.

I was so trickle about the other thing, but anyways, enough for actually signal. I think I was a win for him. I think I was a win for him.

definitely. And a good part of the closing argument, which obviously the amnesty rally was in commute, will be doing this speech at the ellipse but clearly making you protecting democracy of the core of her clothes.

I personally would have preferred her to go to an auto factory in michigan or even a hospital you know, to talk about health care, the people who really keep the country going um but obviously this is a calculated decision that they've made IT. I think that those persuade able righta ing indeed. And republicans are more into protecting democracy. But what do you think about that?

I think you're absolutely write. I think one of the biggest mistakes we is democrats keep making is that we keep thinking if we keep talking about what's wrong with him in a work, yeah, that strategy is not worked. SHE needs to talk about what's right with her.

And that is the policy here.

the policy around medicare so that your parents can die home. The policies around lack of terrorists, the first home home buyers SHE needs to play offence around why you should vote for me as opposed to why you should not vote for him. I agree with you.

I think he should have made economic argument at the end of talk about um heard policy, the other kind of news and all obviously giving my view up front. I I don't think it's big, big news, if you will, is last week trumps long as serving chief of staff, retired marine general john Kelly told the new york times that in his view, trump would govern like a dictator if elected. Let's listen to some of the audio that was released. Do you think he's a fascist?

While looking at the definition of fashion, it's a far right authoritarian alternations alist political ideology and movement characterised by a oral leader centralized and by cracking militarism, possible suppression of opposition belief and natural social hierarchy. So it's certainly, in my year is the most of the time of you this. Running amErica well.

I have a couple questions. So if you just first is um you know I would not agree with with general killers um policies I would bet but it's just weird we can get guys like that to run for president. I means clearly just so knowledgeable and softball and measured, do you think this is damaging for trump? The Kelly has come out and said this.

I think it's always a problem. If somebody that respected, and we should be honest about this, something trumps team, the ones who are so loyal to him have come out and say he hated him from the start. He has always been inborn ate at, at which is calling a four star marine general in subber dined, but that he had asked to grind.

And this is all, and has gotten a lot of quite credible people actually, to desperate mark mEllie and john telly. But I think IT can ever be good for you, that you have people on the record. And this isn't the murderous campaign anymore.

John Kelly SAT down with micros de at the times and said, this stuff on audio and koala can use IT in that way, and that can make IT even more powerful. Because, I mean, this was a fight I was having on the five with my colleagues on friday about the fashion and think this said she's calling him a fashion. I said, no.

John Kelly, in his voice, is calling him a fascist. And I do think if these late breakers, the only undecided left are people that are partial to this argument, that this guy doesn't care about the constitution, he doesn't care how you vote. And there's a ton of evidence that what they are doing right now, even in like what talker carlson said in in the msg rally, that they are making IT seem as though his win is so clearly ordained that anything but a travel tory will be fraud and that you will have to rise up to take your country back.

The groundwork for that is happening, and I think we've been tell you this for weeks. That's part of the complacency as well with the get out the vote Operation, you know, giving them to scope pressler and charlie cork were knocked in on a million doors and they're listening to rogan. It's a very different world in terms of how this is campaigning. So now now I think it's always bad to be called a fascist, but I do think IT stands that people it's your hard place to move people about how they feel about Donald trump at this point.

The trump campaign responded by calling, calling claims, debug stories and accusing him of having trumped arrangement. Sydney, but way i've been called that, i've been accused that a lot.

Do you get accused that, yeah, I have T, D. S.

So bad everywhere.

everywhere I do, I will be fine.

Meanwhile, harasses the moment to focus on democracy, targeting republicans, who maybe we bring on trim. I personally, unfortunately, I think there's a big nothing burger. I think people are so used to.

I think four of us, forty four former secretary of cabinet members, are supporting them. The notion that that these peak folks aren't supporting. I miss something that are been absorbed into the ecosystem.

I thought the most interesting part of this is, I like a sexy j tapper. I like salty. I did you see him with with a with a senator .

advance yeah and mike Johnson .

the weekend before yeah he he was not taking IT from senator vance says, I thought, I really like, i'm my chick you you big slice a man I think he he had some of that I like tom select fire and and I put us back on my guy and my gosh, what did you think? What do you think about view?

I thought IT was great. And I am when it's so clear now that the only way to be able to do this effectively is to use their own words against them, or people's own words, like my john's in the weekend before, you know, trumped as the aren't palm's big downstairs thing. And Michaela, I don't know your time tappers like, okay, I will all just play IT for you, right? You just sit there and I will just play this for you.

Yeah just to watch people score. I think almost the optics of IT often times matter more than the words where you see how visibly uncomfortable. And you remember back to the early days of trump, even with people like ted crews, right?

Marco rubio, linsey gram, where they just can't like you, their skin is crawling, and you can see IT under their suits, right? Tly trying to be freed from how bad this is. So I think it's a very effective way to interview and what you should be doing. And bradd did IT with common. He did IT with trump last year or two years ago when he said, here's everything that people who worked for you said about you.

How do you explain that? Can they all be wrong to your point that only still supporting him? But with eight days left, I worry that nothing matters except knocking on doors and doing souls to the polls and making sure that you're energizing the communities that needs to turn out and comments when all day yesterday, philadephia SHE went to church there SHE Chris crossed all throughout all the neighbor ds, and very emotional and sweet scenes of women embracing her and crying.

You know, feeling like it's not going to be okay this time around, especially because it's he's a lame duck, right? Like there's no third trump term. Not on what this training would say, probably try to find a way, but people have this feeling of desperation that there will be no guard rails, and you will get no john telly that will work for him again.

Mark millis sippin coronas on a beach somewhere, right? He is like, I am done with this. And so who will staff this government that you see? And tony hinch, Cliff.

yes, it's I agree with you. I think at this points. I love that souls to the polls feed on the street. A quick break. stay.

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I just don't get IT just .

wish someone could do the research. Can we figure this out?

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Welcome back. So far, we focused mostly on the presidential race, but control of the house and senate is also on the wine and could have a huge impact on whoever wins the president. A lets lets dive into the senate. Do you think that democrats can hold under the senate? Which crew races are .

you watching? So no, I don't. I resigned to IT. I john tester is done fabulous, but he feels a little done even with that crazy story that chi, who is running against light about where he got shot, he said he got shot enough to aniston, but he was actually in a parking lot like outside of a national park would you would think would be completely abandon.

right? Yeah, that's kind of a key feature of being shot. I was shot and combat. No, I was shot the parking .

and we're talking about ten walls and the stolen valuer of not falling out the right paperwork on time. One of the races i'm really interested to on the senate. So cAllen alred has been running a fantastic campaign and I I feel like we say this regularly like this might be the time we get rid of ted creese.

And I don't really think that by colon, all red is doing so much Better than battle did with this. I think it's also just who he is lands Better with people and he's taking on the culture war stuff so brilliantly. I don't know if I mentioned on on the podcast before, but he cut in, add, saying he's not for trains, women and women sports.

He, just like I played professional football. This is ludek. Ss, you know, ted cruz is trying to say this about us.

An fun fact, actually, the number one issue that trump has been advertising on is anti trans issues, the economy number five, trans stuff number one. So clearly they think they can want to culture war, election. A colon alred is within striking distance.

Some pulls like two, three points behind. Big deal. Cma is there heat showed up at that rally, spoke as well. So beyond, say, all red and commoner, do you think there's any shotter? We just keep fantasizing about a world without ted crews while .

the survey conducted by the york times and sana college shows the cruise leads uh with fifty percent support to forty six or all right.

So it's technically still in the margin of air but IT feels he feels marginal that or there's a marginal shot here for all right I crease strikes me as the vast ire of the senate and just we can kill the guy and he he just feels taxi seems to like him and the thing is of all reddys my sense is already has ran almost near perfect campaign ah a few times I have seen clipsed of why was this got good and crews just look so off his game like trying to respond these things. He's put him on his heels every time to get together. He's had a central casting.

He's thoughtful. Uh he comes across I I would have thought that the bottom zed, if all right, can be cruise. I'm not sure I think people just going to give up. I think people are going to democrats are are going to wait to I die. He I think he's wrong .

or he just means a bigger pod castle. The guy wants to be joe rogan more than he wants to be a senator. The other race I wanted talk about, and I think if you don't know about this guy, you are going to love him so much, is what's going on in nebraska.

So there's an independent guy named dana osborne. He is a veteran. He was a labor leader, a mechanic who is running.

He has been a registered independent his whole life. Deb Fisher, sitting republican senator two term. Dan osborne, in the new champion.

A poll from monday is within two points of doing this. Now MMA o last minute is having that in a ton of money. But day on osborne. E, I love this quote.

And I thought, I like, does this guy listen this gut, or the scot, listen to this guy? He says, you know what, I think it's going to deal this is if he wins, if the asked, does the right thing and IT a lacks a mechanic to the halls of power, the rest of the country is going to say, holy crap, did you see what nebraska did? And it's going to tell people who are nurses, teachers, plumbers, carpenters, bus drivers, other mechanics, that you don't have to be a self funding crypto billionaire to run for office.

He's very strong. Is that might be that might be the best. I already decided that the morning of the six, i'm going to keep refreshing the results on lake guy ega just for my own, just to make myself feel Better yeah just to feel good because he looked like he looks like .

she's yeah goes run an amazing campaign too. We should. I mean, he's unit in a lunan A C. He's done a good job like all right as well.

I think he's manic on a confident campaign. SHE will lose this all. I mean, h is not qualified and b is batch crazy.

But anyways, that would be the race you mentioned to in the bracket that would be super exciting. I'm really disappointed about senator tester. I think he's been really solid.

I think he's I think he's been a great job of, again, another moderate, whether is just know, home home for this person. I think he's in a fantastic job and is a really been a great senator. So let's get right to IT. So we tark a little IT about the senate. What do you think about congress?

My association are not going, what I know this is real water for good, but I don't on IT um is that we will take the house back. And it's cool to be in new york, even though my I went and voted on our our first day of early voting on saturday got my kid's those future voter stickers but my c doesn't matter.

Indian golden uh, territory but a few really exciting races in your argued we are the ones that lost IT uh a couple years ago, you know when George santos was even able to take a seat and so already mentioned antanas posit um who's running? I think it's new york for he is down. He hired his mistress and his pyan say's daughter to work.

I think both yeah.

that was wrong. I actually was going to a try to gloss over IT, but you repeater at twice um so he seems to be down pretty significantly.

Michael ller and monday Jones that interesting race that has a back face component from Michael er sing up is Michael Jackson monday Jones you know part of the squad so that that tension going on, john offline, running out in like the nice, fancy part of the hamptons, and there are also more rural self account, has been fascinating. He was down only four in the latest polling, and mark moon aro upstate, he only won by six thousand votes, says a republican. So there is potential to take that back. And that's a rematch as well.

Yeah, it's going to be does that give you any comfort? And I I don't want to be a defeat this, but say, trumpet does emerge as the vector here, given the map, which was terrible for democrats this election and would be much Better in twenty twenty six and given the traditionally amid term election typically swing way back towards the the party that didn't win the presidency, given that it'll probably be kind of a pretty wonderfully in trans and government, which is the reason we have three branches regardless.

So what happens? They think democrats would have any cover, knowing that most likely twenty twenty six might be a pretty good opportunity to take back control the senate and the house if there's a transfer. Tory.

I mean, sure. Yeah.

they go. No, you're really grasp.

And thus I don't think that you can say to any democrat with A A week out like will this make you feel Better if done on trumps that no nothing will make me feel Better, at least for a really long time. Winning is great. I would love how the opportunity to take back this.

And I hope that it's just a small margin in you know on their side and that they need J. D. Vance to be breaks in all the ties and things like that. But no, I think that people have worked up.

You remember um as your client reported after he did the first shot across bitten s bowers, he said you should go out that way to see the union and then he said, oh, maybe wrong and he was like that I definitely was right but he said that he was getting the sense that democrats actually weren't that scared about another trump term, that there was a lot of bluster but in reality they're worked with him before they're even a bob casey and tell me baldwin have cut ads talking about working with trump, which are obviously signals that they are in a tight races. But b, but they don't think that this is absolutely the end of the world. I feel like the energy now is where IT should be, and that people aren't being as lacks as they were about the trump threat. Do you feel like the energy is at the level that I should be?

So this goes into um I mean, we can we have to have a each of us has to have a prediction here or something resembling a prediction and more so than our prediction for the candidate. What is the underlying element or the surprise that might happen here? And I think the energy is very positive for Harris right now.

Other than in this you confirmation bias full disclosure, there are ten more ten X A number of feet on the street getting people to the polls, democrats, sources, republican S I this election is becoming so tight and the geographic coverage is so tiny in terms of what's going to decide this IT isn't even a small number of swing states. It's a small number of swing counties that I think those feet on the street. This might be the election of podcast of feet of the most analog thing ever.

And that is knocking on the door and saying, the election is today, have you voted? Or it's tomorrow, have you voted? I remember what was in san Francisco. They somehow knew I had voted, and they knocked on my door three times. I mean, they are literally .

shamed me.

Want to go now, hear some coffee and I hold your hand, you know? And I do think that that might Carry us over. And then my and I turned us back to you.

And then the other thing that I think is the october surprise here. I think you're onna. Hear the name's tony hinch Cliff.

A lot more in the next eight days and four hundred thousand porter weekends in this swing state can't feel good. I'm not the republican party right now. I I saw this thing and I thought, wow, that is just comedy, is the art.

Art is the ability to get away with IT to say something. And I try to do this. You try to do education on the five with humor, and that is to say something.

That is, pushes the umble, but you soft on the beach with comedy. And this was the art of not getting away with IT. He said something politely, racist.

And IT felt so flat IT didn't land so hard that I was the worst of all world worlds for them. IT feeds exactly into the fear people have about administration. And clearly, nobody did the math and said, you realize this is a big constituency in the most important state.

So my prediction is that I do like what Michelle obama said about, men need to move to protection and are you there to protect us to the feet on the street? And three, I think there's tony hinch, Cliff the bacco might if he gets three thousand people. I mean, that's that's literally we're down to at this point.

I think those three things are going to potentially i'm predicting this is not only going to be a win for Harris, it's going to be a decisive win. And that is a huge practicing bias. This is me trying to tell myself, you know, uh, yeah, I think I can. I think I can am a brave, strong you know, when you see those tiktok at the four year old girl jumping off something and she's like, I am courageous, i'm strong and this is me try to keep myself saying, but that's my prediction. What are your thoughts eight days .

out as though I am leg, that I am having a more optimistic day on my emotions are all over the place, not to be too female about IT. Unsurprisingly, I have highs, and lows usually .

depends on my blood. No, I just, I just turned to alcohol, but anyway was going.

i'm trying to avoid that is just not create taking care of a baby that way, but we could get there. My prediction is that the shy voter of this election is the right leaning person. It's not the trump voter that we had in twenty sixteen into a later degree in twenty twenty, but the right leaning person who cast a country over party vote.

And there's been a lot of very good journalism from interviews oh, about how many people are saying I just can't do IT I just can't vote for him in this scenario. I don't love her. I don't necessarily think that I know her that well. And IT does keep coming up consistently that not having a good answer on immigration, even if immigration is not your big issue, is something that is very bother some to people and and for me, you know die hard dam, I feel that a way as well.

I don't know how they haven't figured out something Better to say about that, but that people are just gonna go on the voting booth and quietly do their business in both for calm, a kind of how what bread events articulated in his, you know, in the conversation with gale Collins last weekend, money set IT. So I think that in general, but black and let he know men in particular, will could come home, that truck will perform Better than he did before. But IT won't be these of huge resignation that we had been seeing. But cma wins, there will be a much needed autopsy on who the democratic party is because if we manage .

to have if SHE .

does win ah, because we will have one less on the votes of people who are not ours for future elections if they run a Normal republican again. You know it's glad Young can or somebody they're not with us anymore. And we need to do a lot of you know good long heart about how we have been messaging to men, to minority voters, in some cases even to women.

And you should always have the highest schools possible. And I think that I don't want to let you know perfect, be the enemy of the good. I hope that we have done good enough.

But less shiny is a rental SHE. We do not own less chiny. And I think about that a lot.

It's funny because I think if trump wins, the republic lan party is .

literally they they would literally .

have to go there, okay, if the verdict is in, there's no, there's no, you know, turning chicken, chicken and chickens out. This guy is basically taken the republican party down when a lot of their issues seemed to resonate. And we kicked out all the old line, republicans, what is the new who are the new republicans then?

Jd vents really is the future of the party.

That's really interesting interesting. So um I want to read just as we rap up pair, I just want to read some your quotes. I'm there to represent, at least of the voting public, the majority of americans, miss carlo said over a recent breakfast.

We he meant democrats in twenty twenty got eighty one million invoice. There are more of me than there are of them. Her goals, he said, is to inject a democratic perspective into the fox bloodstream while showing viewers that ideological foes can still get along.

I also want to win elections, said, mister, I love. I've got to start in politics, working for dr. Shawn.

Shawn shown a, shown a democratic poster, and I think that being on the most watch show is the best place to be. I'm in an you, literally. I at some point, I mean, I, I do. I, I, I really do like you.

So I might I got a lot attacks like that, like the duty .

write this yeah but that's.

I don't know, meet this case and I think I persuaded you a bit about IT. You know the undecided are the ones watching fox and and that is an important reason to be there. But people want to tune in to see real conversation.

And to your souls, to the polls point, there are more of us. I feel like we ve run as if they're only like ten of us, and there are cajian of them. There are more people that agree with our point of view. So we should be a little bit louder about IT and have Better media strategy, which we do not. I mean, the right crushes us in terms of that even though we quote on, quote on the culture.

No, this is this thing. Yeah, I just can't get over this, even that picture that's, I don't .

know if I .

like you want the orange tank, me look great, but i'm not sure.

So then don't bring me down, man. That is a great suit. That is a, that is a patel suit. If there was one.

you know how .

I feel about three d printed doll, your profile is insanely nice to mine was a hit .

piece compared to this thing, literally. This is, this is, if you ever run for president, this will be seen as like the, the, the launch article. Oh my god, h anyways, with that, we're going to wrap up here. That's all for this episode. If you have not read this article and you want to see what it's like, what a puff piece is like from everyone's new favorite democrat, just how love go and just type in the new year times type and tarloff that's T A R L V and you're going see what it's like to be on the risk.

And how about the suit is also yeah uh the twenty th was our one you're anniversary when we were on mart together and this piece came out that day.

So glad you remembered. So glad .

remember my human is like we were on marr. We he didn't say we, he does not think we he said we were out in a for marr and you met Scott .

a year ago today it's year yeah it's .

going to miss who .

would who would have suck. We'd be here making probably incorrect predictions .

about all things. Yeah, just win.

Yeah i'm going say, all right, that's that's all for the ebisu. Thank you for listening. Region moderates our producers or Caroline shape and and David to lito or tactical directors juba, you can find region moderates on its own feed every tuesday.

That's right. Region moderates has its own feed. Please follow us wherever you get your podcast. Just have a great rest of the way. stable.

That's the sound of a mountain do and that's you enjoying its refreshing siris cake. That's a cool breeze suddenly whistling .

through your hair.

That's a how wow. That's you realizing you're now on a mountain this pic. That's your stating the obvious.

What's that? That's a yeah his name is terra. He says allow because you're stepping up to the plate. That's you're winning your kit ball.

That's good.

That's Terry hugged you. How little too hard that's you taking another tip of your.

Do they do?

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