Election Eve Margins & The Gender Gap | 11.4.24
Morning Wire
Deep Dive
Why is the Harris campaign optimistic about their chances in the election?
Harris has a 10 to 15 point lead with female voters, and abortion is a top issue this election, which benefits her campaign.
What are the key concerns for the Harris campaign?
Only 28% of Americans feel the country is on the right track, and voters do not trust Harris to handle the economy and immigration effectively.
Why might Trump lose the election?
His favorability ratings are around 44%, which is historically low for a winning candidate, and many voters simply do not like him.
What reasons does the Trump camp have to feel optimistic?
Most Americans believe they were better off under Trump's term, and Republicans have gained ground in voter registration, particularly in key states like Pennsylvania.
How might the gender gap influence the election outcome?
Women are outpacing men in early voting, particularly in battleground states, which historically benefits Democratic candidates.
What is the Trump campaign's strategy to appeal to women voters?
They focus on kitchen table issues like inflation and safety, while minimizing the issue of abortion, which is Harris's primary pitch to women.
Why might pollsters be underestimating Trump's support?
There is a significant over-response among Biden 2020 voters in polls, which could lead to an underestimation of Trump's support.
What trends will pollsters be watching on election night?
They will be closely monitoring Election Day turnout compared to early voting numbers and the expected voter demographics.
- Trump visits Rust Belt states and North Carolina, while Harris focuses on Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan.
- Harris' appearance on Saturday Night Live draws criticism for violating FCC equal time rules.
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