Key Insights
Why might the abortion issue be underrated in this election?
Dobbs has been a significant event, and the abortion issue has likely been underrated this year, even in states where it's not front and center. The issue could move three, four, five, or six points in favor of Harris, potentially making a significant difference.
How has the Trump campaign handled the abortion issue?
The Trump campaign has done an awful job at taking the air out of the abortion issue. Their inability to have a coherent message about it has allowed the campaign to run on horrific stories and draconian laws, which they may regret if they don't win.
What impact might the gender gap in early voting have on the election?
The gender gap, particularly a 10% gap favoring Harris, could be significant. If this gap maintains, it could be good news for Harris, especially if it reflects a broader trend across states.
How might the early vote in Michigan affect the polling predictions?
The early vote in Michigan suggests that pollsters may have underweighted younger voters, minority voters, and women. This could mean that the actual vote could skew more in favor of Harris than current polls indicate.
What is Bill Kristol's prediction for the election outcome?
Bill Kristol predicts that Harris will win, with a late break in her favor. He believes the polling may not have captured the gender gap and that minority turnout will be good for Harris. He expects to know the winner by midnight Tuesday night.
Why might Trump's behavior and past actions be a liability in this election?
Trump's behavior, including his threats of violence and his past actions as described in various sexual assault stories, could be a significant liability. These actions align with his bragging in the Access Hollywood tape and could impact senior women voters.
How does Bill Kristol feel about the fight against Trumpism?
Bill Kristol feels that the fight against Trumpism has been a good and worthwhile fight. He finds inspiration in fighting what he believes is the right fight, even if it has been exhausting at times.
Chapters
- Ann Seltzer's poll in Iowa shows a significant gender gap tied to abortion.
- The abortion issue has been underrated in this election cycle.
- Demographic differences between states like Iowa and Texas mean that shifts in voter behavior may not be uniform across all states.
Shownotes Transcript
