Trump's Butler Return + Flipping the Senate
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Honored to be with you as always. Mr. Blake is with us as well, helping co-pilot the ship here. It's very important. Tomorrow, I believe, the end of the race begins, the final sprint. Tomorrow, Donald Trump returns to Butler, Pennsylvania, to the state that could determine the entire election, to the city.

where Donald Trump was shot back in July. And the media has done everything they can to cover up and forget that Donald Trump was shot. His ear was pierced by a bullet. Now, Joy Reid and many other people on MSNBC have said, oh, how do we know that Donald Trump was actually shot? You could see it very clearly on the video that Donald Trump was shot and mere millimeters saved his life. I think a lot of people don't talk about it, even in conservative circles, because they

It's so disturbing to understand. It's so disturbing to confront what that means, that we can't protect our former presidents, that we could have gone into an American civil war, that we were just about to have the opposition leader be murdered on live television. It's almost too dramatic, too heavy. The American people almost kind of just say, I can't handle it. It's just too much for me. Well, Donald Trump is returning and forcing the issue.

The beginning of the end of this campaign. We are 32 days out from counting day, not election day. It is counting day in this country. Arizona ballots go out on Wednesday. The voter registration deadline is quickly approaching. Voting is about to begin in Georgia, North Carolina. Voting has already started in Virginia. Voting has already started in Wisconsin. In-person early voting is about to begin in Florida. Election month is starting today.

And the final sprint begins tomorrow.

Now, looking at the data and looking at the state of this race, I want to go back into where the race was back in October of 2020. I want to talk about a state that Trump is almost certainly going to win. A state that is very, very pro-Trump. A state that Donald Trump has changed from a battleground state to a comfortable Republican state. And that is the state of Ohio. Donald Trump will win Ohio. You don't have to worry about it.

Do you know that at this date, on October 4th, 2020, Joe Biden was up two and a half points in the real clear politics average in the state of Ohio. Joe Biden was up at two and a half points at this moment in time in 2020.

There was a poll from Quinnipiac that finished on November 1st, the last day of polling, that had Biden up four in Ohio. And Donald Trump won by eight. 8.2. So that is a 12.2 point polling miss. Want more? Yeah, please. Iowa, the average was Trump up two, also won by 8.2. And so that was a six point polling miss. Florida, average Biden up one, Trump won by 3.3.

4.3 polling miss. Now, we can't bank on the same sort of dramatic polling misses this cycle that we saw back in 2020. We'd like to believe that maybe these pollsters have adjusted their models, that they have updated their matrix. However, we don't know that.

We do know, though, that it is legitimate to say that back in 2020, this was a much harder environment for Donald Trump to remain as president than right now in 2024 for Donald Trump to become president again. We had COVID death totals on TV. We had BLM marches in the streets. We had race riots. Donald Trump ran out of money. And we've mentioned that before. The Trump campaign was bankrupt at this time four years ago.

Donald Trump is not bankrupt right now. He's being minorly outspent by about 10 or 15% more in hard money, but Donald Trump has television advertisements on TV. He's finishing strong. He's going to do a rally palooza, and that all begins tomorrow in Butler. And let me tell you right now what I'm seeing happening in real time, and I'm seeing it actually less in the Trump data and more in the Senate data. Front page of Axios.com. Schumer's Wisconsin problem.

Wisconsin Democrats are suddenly concerned Senator Tammy Baldwin's reelection bid rated lean Democrat is too close for comfort. Baldwin's lead over GOP nominee Eric Hovda has deteriorated and Republicans are flooding the state with cash sources tell us. Now, this is fascinating. We have seen Trump

Be up five, six, seven, eight points on the Senate candidates almost the entire cycle. That is changing in real time. We're seeing the Senate candidates and Trump start to run closer and closer together. That is a warning sign for Kamala Harris and the Democrats.

That Donald Trump also is about to take off. We have said repeatedly on this program that Donald Trump is the Mariano Rivera of politics. He is the closer. He is the finisher. The last 30 days, Donald Trump locks in and he is the best finisher that we have seen. He does more rallies. He stays on message. He visits the key states. He draws attention and he makes Kamala Harris seem small and insignificant.

That begins tomorrow in Butler, Pennsylvania. And I could tell you, I have now dialogued with two pollsters in the last 24 hours. And both of them told me, Charlie, this race is super tight. But we are starting to see the momentum slowly but surely break in Donald Trump's direction. Break on the issues. Break on what matters most. It is a bullish trend beginning to go in Donald Trump's direction.

Now, I'm not guaranteeing victory, but I am saying that there is a clear shot from this point forward to counting day, everybody, that we are beginning to see the trajectory favor us. Blake,

we have grown used to Senate candidates being almost irrelevant. We're seeing now the Senate candidates break in a competitive favor. What does that mean for the election? Well, one, one thing that's good is it kind of throws Democrats into a bit of disarray. If like, you know, for example, if their candidates have to worry, oh, we're, you know, maybe we're going to lose. We're going to get dragged down by Kamala Harris. So you force them to

separate themselves more from Kamala. You create fractious divides within the Democrats. This also affects money. If they have to send money to try to bail out a Senate race they thought was secure, that's money they're not going to be able to spend as much on the House or on Kamala herself or...

or all these other things. So you're spreading it out. That's especially the case if it's a newly competitive Senate race in a state that wasn't necessarily competitive for the presidential race. So, for example, we'll have a hung cow on later, and if... It's a long shot, but he can do it. Yeah, it's a long shot, but it's more likely than, frankly, Trump winning Virginia, I think. And it'd be great if we won Virginia, but it would be... We're not focused on doing that, because we only win that if we're winning everywhere. Correct. But

you know, the Senate race does matter. And if you force Democrats to go bail out Tim Kaine, that's resources that they aren't diverting to Pennsylvania, to Georgia, to North Carolina. And I could tell you, I was scrolling through social media last night on Erica's phone. I don't have X. And I saw six Tim Kaine ads on X.

where they were embedded in the feed. And that's because we did a hung cow tweet. And so it was attached to it. Somebody is pumping money right now into the Tim Kaine race. And Tim Kaine was rated as very safe.

Baldwin was rated as very safe. And I love what you said. That's such an important point. If you can start to get Tammy Baldwin to distance herself from Kamala Harris, Sherrod Brown to distance himself from Kamala Harris, that only plays into the factor that she's radical. We've already had this. Jon Tester has to be like, I didn't vote for Kamala. And Jon Tester, by the way, is refusing to say whether or not he's voting for Kamala Harris.

Really? Oh, that's amazing. He's still saying that. He's like, I'm not sure who I'm voting for. I'm keeping an open mind. I might vote for a third party. And he's running for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat. Montana.

Multiple U.S. Senate races are tightening, moving from lean Democrat to statistical ties or even with Republicans ahead. Republican Eric Hovda is now statistically tied with Tammy Baldwin with her internal polling from both campaigns after being down 7 percent. Wisconsin Republican Bernie Moreno has recently been polling slightly ahead of Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Hung Kau is within the margin of error against Democrat Tim Kaine. Tim Sheehy is now consistently ahead of John Tester.

Multiple Senate candidates have momentum, which is a bad sign for Kamala. Everybody, we are 32 days out. It's going to be a momentum race. We are beginning to see the momentum break in our favor. That is why every one of us must chase ballots, get your friends out to the polls, to vote early, sprint to the end. More critical than ever.

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Schumer's Wisconsin problem as we have Havdi coming up. Chuck Schumer can't afford to lose anyone. Montana is in trouble, Axios reports. Ohio and Michigan are toss-ups.

But Wisconsin is supposed to be like Nevada and Arizona, a tight but safe-ish race as long as nothing goes awry. Multiple Democrat sources are sounding the alarm in the Senate. A national Democrat strategist working on Senate campaigns pointed specifically to a recent poll from Marquette University, which showed Baldwin with a six-point lead.

However, they say the race is much, much closer than that, they said. Over the next month, Republicans in the state have nearly a $3.5 million spending advantage on the airwaves. Isn't that nice to have a Republican have a spending advantage for us? Yeah, I'll take it. I'll take it. According to a source familiar with ad buys in Wisconsin. You see, the Democrats went all in.

On an early blitzkrieg spending strategy, presidential races are different than midterms. As the electorate expands and lower propensity voters start to get into the election, it is harder and harder now for Democrats to withstand the storm that is coming. You see, the Democrats... The storm. I mean the political storm that is coming.

You see, Democrats right now are in a place where they want to run out the clock. NBC News reports Kamala Harris playing it safe. Harris is playing it safe. Some Democrats worry that could doom her campaign. Democrats are concerned that she's acting like she's sitting on a lead in a tied race. Sounds like Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016.

Even as polling shows the presidential race is a toss up, Kamala Harris has been running with a measure of risk aversion that some Democrat strategists and activists worry has failed to fully capitalize on the excitement surrounding her entry into the race. This is such a funny alternate reality, like the excitement around her. Like, yeah, that's because she's not doing anything. Like, why is she playing it so safe? Like, do you guys all have amnesia?

Do you remember June? Everyone knows Kamala is terrible. This is the correct strategy for her. This is the downside. That's correct. The Democrat strategist Steve Shurtleff, a former Democrat speaker of the New Hampshire House, said, quote, They're trying to keep her away. It's like seeing your favorite Hollywood actor and then they're on a talk show and they can't even speak.

The president of the United States has to be able to be on their toes all the time and answer questions, he added. It's so obvious she's been avoiding the one-on-one interviews and the voters deserve better, the Democrat strategist says. Remember, the original strategy was that Donald Trump would be in jail right now. The original strategy was that the lawfare would have slowed us down. Instead, it has sped us up. The original strategy was that October was going to be a really bad month for Trump. Instead, Donald Trump returns to the place that he was supposed to be shot and killed at.

That's what tomorrow is. Donald Trump triumphantly returns to the place that was supposed to be the site of his death. And instead, it's going to be the site of his political life and future. That's what tomorrow is in Butler, Pennsylvania.

And you might say, Charlie, why is Donald Trump going to Butler, Pennsylvania this early before the election? Because Donald Trump is going all in on early voting. His team is going to use this as a way, because Pennsylvania is voting now, in Allegheny County, mind you, as a way to drive people to the polls in an early fashion in a historic way. Blake? It's great. Like, you just, you have to...

really drive home that once your ballot is in, your role is done. Well, not done. You should still get other people out to vote too. But once your ballot is in,

then our campaign, our apparatus doesn't have to worry about you. That's hugely liberating. It is a huge asset to us when you already have 1 million, 2 million votes just banked away. You can check them off the list. You can put all your focus on the remaining low propensity voters who take more work to get out. It's a huge bother when you have to waste energy on your high propensity voters, the people who probably would vote anyway, but you can't be sure. So you have to spend all this energy on it.

Get those ballots in. Make us stop worrying about them. Chris Kofanithis, a Democrat strategist, says the campaign is taking a chance that they can run out the clock and Trump's weaknesses will be enough to win. But the danger is that if you don't define your own candidacy well enough, people will start defining it themselves. I'm telling you, everybody, this is a perfect environment for us. They're terrified and afraid and they are holding their candidate. Our candidate is going back to a place where he was shot and nearly killed.

Which one are the American people going to respect and we're going to win those late breakers? Drive turnout. The Democrats are terrified of their candidate. Can't put her in public. Can't do interviews. This is a perfect opportunity for us to seize it for momentum. Get your friends out to vote early. Vote early yourself. Chase ballots. Register voters. Become a nonstop walking advertisement for Donald Trump in every conversation. Uber drivers with your car.

Waiters, with your waitresses, with your friends, your family, your neighbors. We are 32 days out. Democrats are running scared and are hiding. We have an opportunity to seize this and to win.

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Eric Hovde is with us. Eric, welcome to the program. Eric, how are things going in the great state of Wisconsin? It seems as if you have Chuck Schumer very nervous. Yeah.

Yes, we do have Chuck Sumer, very nervous. Good afternoon, everyone. I hope you're all off to a great day. Yeah, look, Wisconsin's a key battleground state, as we know. Kamala Harris has been in our state more than any other state. President Trump is coming back into the state on Sunday. He was just here on Monday and a couple of times the week before. And

Look, I loved what you were just saying, Charlie. We're fighting for the soul of our country. I think everybody who's aware knows that. What the economic damage that the left has done has been enormous. Real wages have declined over the last three and a half years under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

And under President Trump, they rose by 7.7%. I loved your comments about the border. It's just fact. As a business guy, results matter. And the results are very clear. President Trump had the border secure. Kamala Harris opened up the border. And we have, I don't know, 15, 20 plus million illegal immigrants and all the problems that go with that. And I'm running against probably one of the most extreme liberals in Senator Baldwin,

She votes for all of this stuff. We have a big issue going on right now in our state, and I think it's happening in every state where the Department of Education and the Agricultural Department are withholding funds on school districts if they don't allow boys to play in girls' sports or guys to go into girls' locker rooms and bathrooms.

Think of how sick that is. So these are the issues that I'm talking about. And I feel really good where the race stands right now. Yeah. Eric, you've been running such a great race and credit to you is that you've just keep on being disciplined regardless of the attacks against you. Talk about your opponent, Senator Baldwin, who is a rubber stamp for this agenda.

Look, Senator Baldwin has been in politics literally for 40 years. County government, state government, and then in Washington, D.C. for 26 years. She has consistently voted one of the three most liberal senators. She voted for every one of the crazy spending packages. She voted to open the border. She actually said, we're spending too much on trying to secure the southern border. I'm

To give you her perspective on the social issues, because she's as far out there as anybody, she gave our taxpayer money through an earmark to a transgender clinic here in Madison that doesn't even notify parents.

Think how sick that is. So she's just radical left. She's a rubber stamp, votes with Joe Biden 95.5% of the time. She never accomplishes anything other than stamping what the progressive left is. And here's the biggest joke about her. She's the ultimate hypocrite.

She says she's fighting against Wall Street, talks about income inequality and the wealthy have to pay their fair share. And yet she lives basically with a Wall Street executive in New York,

Maria Brisbane, who designs tax strategies for the uber wealthy and invest in biotech and pharmaceutical companies that Senator Baldwin's committee oversees. And they don't have to report it and disclose those investments because they're not legally married. So she's an utter hypocrite on top of being just a radical leftist.

So talk about the state of Wisconsin. Wisconsin is historically very hard to poll. It is notoriously a state where Wisconsinites don't like talking outside pollsters about how they're feeling about things and how they view politics. In fact, in 2020 of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, it was the worst polling for Donald Trump of those three, yet the best performance.

He overperformed every poll and ended up 20,000 votes, ballots short. And so there's something about Wisconsin where you just got to keep your head down, do the work, and the people of Wisconsin end up making really rational and good decisions. Ron Johnson really shows us that despite what the polling shows, you can be victorious.

What are you seeing on the ground? What are you hearing? What's the vibe in Wisconsin? Can Donald Trump win Wisconsin? What are you hearing? First of all, let's talk at the presidential level and then I'll talk about my Senate race and the past Senate races.

It's important for everybody to understand Wisconsin is a center-right state. Six of our eight congressional seats are Republican. Our state Senate is a supermajority Republican, and our state Assembly is almost a supermajority Republican. Our governor right now is a Democrat. And then we have Ron Johnson, one of the most conservatives, and Tammy Baldwin, one of the most liberals.

So you're exactly right, Charlie. Wisconsin underpolls President Trump more than any other state. And I'm going to explain the reason why. And it's called Dane County, where Madison, Wisconsin is. Think of Madison. It's a beautiful city. It's where I live. It's gorgeous. But it's the heart of the progressive beast. It's the state capital, university capital, or University of Wisconsin is based here.

And so it's very progressive, kind of like Berkeley, California. So if somebody calls you and asks you, are you voting for President Trump protects you? You're not going to acknowledge that if you're living here in Dane County. So it massively underpolls President Trump.

There's another issue that also is happening with polls as the Democrats become more public sector employees and big giant company employees. And the Republicans are more private sector employees, particularly small and medium sized business employees.

It's harder to get people that are actively busy in the private sector versus government employees. And lastly, farmers are hard to poll because they get up early, they work all day, they come home, they're exhausted, and they're just not the type that are going to sit on the phone for a 40 or 50 question poll.

So we always under poll. I think President Trump is winning the state right now. Most polls have him, you know, either down one to up one. So it's basically tied. So if you use past precedent where he was supposed to lose by six or seven points in 16 and 20, that tells me, you know, he's probably up three, four points in this state or even possibly more. But a lot will be decided in the next 32 days. Now, Ron Johnson, he always under polls.

Didn't look like he was going to win in 16 and not even in 22 up until the very end. And I'm in a much better position than Ron was in 16 and kind of comparable to where Ron was in 22. So I feel really good. Most of the polls show I'm down one, two percent. You know, there's been seven polls. The Democrats are panicking. They've spent

more money attacking me on a per capita basis than any Senate candidate. So they're spending money hand over fist trying to hit me and making up all these crazy stories and lies. So I just keep charging ahead. Look, we got to save this country. It's that simple.

I'm in this for one reason. I love America. I couldn't sit by and just watch my country get melted down. That's why I got into this fight, because we've got to save this country. But I can't do it without all of you. And your involvement in our state is huge. Send some donations to erichovdy.com, but tell your friends, get out, knock doors. With your help, I can pull this thing off. Yes, you can. It's erichovdy.com. And Eric...

In Dane County, we were just there doing a big event at UW-Madison. We registered over 120 voters for Donald Trump and for you right there on campus trying to lose by less in Dane County. We have a big army in Wisconsin, as you well know, ballot chasing, doing the work county by county. That is what it's going to take.

Final point here, Eric, what is the call to action for the folks of Wisconsin of what it's going to take to volunteer, get you and Donald Trump across the finish line? Absolutely. I've said it from the get go. They've got the media on their side. They've got their infrastructure. The Democratic Party is a machine, but we've got the people. And I believe people have woken up and realized,

You know, this is such a consequential election. If they get another four years, we won't recognize our country. So everybody has to get out there, talk to their friends, talk to their neighbors, talk to their business colleagues.

Ask them questions. Are you happy with our open border? Are you happy with fentanyl flooding into our streets? Are you happy with the inflation? Are you happy that FEMA's run out of money to help those victims of the hurricane because they used it on purpose?

illegal immigrants and flying them into our country. It is so fundamentally wrong. So everybody has to go do their part, go talk to everybody they can, put my yard sign and Donald Trump's yard sign in your yard, but just

You know, you are a person of influence. So go use that and bring them over to our side and let's win in November. I love it. Eric, we are behind you 100 percent. Thank you so much. Thank you, everyone. Have a great day. Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here. What an unbelievable start to 2024. We had last month saving babies with preborn by providing ultrasounds. And we're doing again this year what we did last year. We're going to stand for life because remaining silent in the face of the most radically pro-death administration is not an option.

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I want to remind you guys to get involved to chase ballots and do your part to volunteer for this upcoming election. You could do that at tpaction.com slash 100. That is tpaction.com slash 100 or tpaction.com slash chase. Do your part to chase ballots. Get out into the streets.

and make a big difference this election cycle. This is the voter registration deadline is coming up. How many people you register to vote? I don't know, but it is...

important that you're trying to register people to vote every day. The people that are in your sphere of influence, the people you come in contact with, that is tpaction.com slash chase to get engaged, get involved. Every person in this audience, if we all chased 100 ballots, this election is over. It is over. It is signed, sealed, and delivered 100 ballots apiece. tpaction.com slash chase. We can get in the streets.

Go door by door. Go to the neighborhoods. Be part of our citizen force to save the country. It is not enough just to watch from the sidelines. Instead, we must get in the neighborhoods and do the work. TPaction.com slash chase. I want to go through some pieces of tape here that apply to the current momentum that we are seeing on the ground.

You see, the Democrats, they're not really sure what to do with this. Do you have more Kamala Harris? Do you have less Kamala Harris? Announcement today is that Obama is going to start campaigning on Kamala Harris's behalf. Not a big surprise, Blake. I mean, he'd better. She needs all the help she can get. She could use a real politician. Yes, and I mean, she has the entire apparatus and regime supporting her. Let me go to this tape here. This is a Latino voter in Nevada.

saying that she's voting for Trump. By the way, we're going to be in Nevada on Tuesday. Let's play Cut 29. The four years he was in office, we were doing good, absolutely good. You know, Kamala, she's already in office and ain't shit done. And, you know, I mean, there was more work, too.

We were able to afford things. Able to afford things. And more and more, Americans are starting to see the past record, such as Kamala Harris calling the border crisis fiction. Play cut 68. Because we have a president of the United States who has created a fiction about a crisis at the border, and he has held up the United States and its workers...

And it's a distraction from the real issues. And you can see why she wasn't able to win the Democrat. I mean, she had to drop out before Iowa. I'm going to remind you. She was in the lead in July and was so bad she bombed out before anyone voted.

Here's Kamala Harris saying we don't need to build a wall. This is a crisis of his own making. It's not an emergency. Play cut 69. We don't need to build a wall. This is a crisis of his own making. And by definition, just plain speak, basic English language definition, it is not an emergency.

Yeah. Millions and millions of people, over 10 million people coming into the country. Not an emergency. I think we have Ben Berkwam right now. Let's throw to Ben Berkwam, who is in East Palestine, Ohio. Do we have Ben here, Charlie? We're here with these in East Palestine with a bunch of the residents, some who took part in the class action, some who did not. But the bottom line is this community has still been abandoned by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

As we see North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, South Carolina being abandoned after the hurricane. This is this continues. Well, so, Ben, you're there on the ground. You're going to the Butler rally tomorrow. I believe East Palestine, when Donald Trump visited it about a year and a half ago, was the spark plug that brought his campaign really back to life. Talk more about the forgotten America of what happens in that part of the world and what people are experiencing there in East Palestine.

Well, I just, I'll flip the camera and I just want to give these, uh, everyone here an opportunity and you just tell me when to stop. Uh, guys, uh, I want to come over here. Uh, Bob, Bob, well, let me start with Bob. I was just talking to Bob. Uh, Bob, you're a business owner. Uh, you opted out. Tell us again. Why tell you where your business is, where it's in reference to the disaster and why you decided to opt out? Well, we were right across the street and we stood and watched the whole show for the past year and nine months, whatever it was. And,

We were in negotiation with the railroad and we just could never get anywhere. And we finally got, when they announced, we were in negotiation with the railroad trying to get a settlement. Well, then they announced this class action settlement and the railroad started talking to me. So when we found out what they were offering and the timeframe, and it just looked like a sellout to me. And so we just opted out. We had no other choice.

Charlie, I want to ask the question that the folks out here, how many of you feel like the federal government has been here and had your back? Raise your hand. How many of you feel like you've been abandoned by the federal government?

That's the answer. Lonnie, I know this is really difficult for you. I want to bring you in here again. Tell us your experience. My home was at ground zero. I'm roughly 1,200. I was roughly 1,200 feet from where they blew uncontrolled burn of all of those chemicals. I could not remain in my home of 30 years with my family because I have a full PTSD diagnosis from living through this.

We've been neglected. Our town is so incredibly divided. And if you appeal, if you're taking part in this settlement and you appeal, we're seeing so much backlash. People are terrified to speak out now and terrified to appeal, which they have every legal right to in this country, in this court system, to appeal this class settlement. I just, everything's unbelievable to me when I'm seeing...

Witness in the next country. That is forgotten America right there. But with Donald Trump, they'll be forgotten no longer. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.

I had to find the truth.

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