The establishment GOP donors believed that Arizona was not worth an investment and that their polling showed Carrie Lake trailing by nine points, making it an unfavorable investment compared to other races.
If Carrie Lake wins, it would be a significant victory for the grassroots movement and a rebuke to the establishment GOP, showing that a candidate can win without significant financial backing from traditional donors.
Election Day voters in Arizona tend to be redder, meaning they are more likely to vote Republican, especially among registered Democrats who do not vote in primaries and are often working-class Hispanics.
If Carrie Lake wins, it could shift the donor strategy towards supporting grassroots efforts and America First candidates, reducing reliance on establishment-backed candidates and their expensive campaigns.
The rural vote in Arizona is crucial because it tends to be heavily Republican, providing a significant boost to Carrie Lake's totals, especially in counties like Cochise and Yavapai, which have shown strong support for her.
The outcome of the Senate leadership elections will indicate whether the party is moving towards more conservative, grassroots-supported leadership or maintaining the status quo of establishment control.
The lack of support for Carrie Lake reflects the GOP establishment's preference for establishment-backed candidates and their reluctance to invest in grassroots or America First candidates, viewing them as less favorable investments.
Ballot chasing is crucial in close elections as it ensures that every vote is counted, including those that might be initially marked as provisional or needing adjudication, thereby potentially shifting the outcome in favor of the candidate who has a strong ground game.
Carrie Lake's potential victory is seen as a 'FU' to the establishment because it demonstrates that a candidate can win a Senate seat without the financial backing and support typically expected from the GOP establishment, relying instead on grassroots efforts and voter engagement.
The grassroots movement views the potential outcome of Carrie Lake's Senate race as a validation of their strategy and a significant victory against the establishment, showcasing the power of grassroots organizing and voter engagement.
Donald Trump won't just be back in the White House. Now, we know he'll have a Republican House and Senate to support him as well. Charlie and crew look ahead to what the Trump admin can achieve, how the Senate leadership fight will go, and more, while continuing to watch for ballots in the House and Kari Lake's Senate race in Arizona.
Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/support)
See omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.