cover of episode The Greatest Comeback Story in American History

The Greatest Comeback Story in American History

2024/11/6
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Andrew
专注于解决高质量训练数据和模型开发成本问题的 AI 研究员。
C
Charlie Kirk
J
Joe Scarborough
M
Mark Halperin
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Charlie Kirk: 我认为我们找到了新的选民,这在赢得威斯康星州的选举中起到了关键作用。我们通过努力工作,超过了民主党,赢得了选举。这次胜利是上帝的恩典,美国人民转向了上帝。这次选举就像在云层中飞行,需要相信仪表盘上的数据。特朗普竞选团队的民调专家Tony Fabrizio准确预测了选举结果。密歇根州大部分地区都向右倾斜,底特律的转变尤其显著。伊利诺伊州和新泽西州的选举结果比预期更接近。特朗普赢得了许多以往民主党占优势的地区,例如得克萨斯州的斯塔尔县。这次选举的胜利不仅仅是特朗普的胜利,而是代表了一个新时代的开始。我们在宾夕法尼亚州中心县赢得了青年选票。我们实现了我们一直希望看到的压倒性胜利。我们在大学里开展的“证明我错”活动,帮助我们在这些地区获得了比民主党候选人更好的成绩。民主党在竞选活动中花费了巨额资金,但最终输掉了选举。这次胜利是属于所有人的胜利,我们还有很多工作要做。如果没有我们在威斯康星州的努力,特朗普就不会赢得威斯康星州的选举。缅因州八年级学生的民调结果准确预测了总统选举的结果。缅因州八年级学生的民调比其他任何民调都更准确地预测了选举结果。我们利用媒体的报道,成功地激发了男性选民的投票热情。 Andrew: Seltzer民调对我们造成了严重的士气打击,让左派获得了动能。 Mark Halperin: Charlie Kirk成功地动员了选民,帮助特朗普赢得了选举。Charlie Kirk在美国总统政治中取得了成功。一些支持堕胎的年轻女性仍然投票给了特朗普,这说明堕胎并非左右选举结果的关键因素。特朗普的胜利反映了他对不同阶层选民的吸引力,这与以往的共和党候选人不同。民主党对特朗普的吸引力缺乏了解,这导致了他们的失败。民主党的失败是由于他们对政治议题的立场过于偏左,无法吸引特朗普所吸引的选民群体。Ann Seltzer的民调失误并非故意为之,而是民调本身固有的不确定性造成的。一个民调的失误并不代表民调本身不可靠。民主党面临着内部矛盾和缺乏领导力的危机。民主党缺乏能够带领他们走出危机的领袖人物。民主党需要解决内部矛盾,才能找到解决问题的方案。 Joe Scarborough: 这次选举的结果表明,美国比以往任何时候都更加倾向于右翼。这次选举是自1984年里根总统大选以来最大的“红色浪潮”。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Donald Trump's victory in the election come as a surprise to many?

The media and polls underestimated Trump's appeal and failed to predict his strong performance across various demographics, including working-class voters of different races and young independents.

What role did Charlie Kirk and Turning Point USA play in the election outcome?

Charlie Kirk and Turning Point USA were instrumental in mobilizing young voters and expanding the voter base in key states like Wisconsin and Arizona, which were crucial for Trump's victory.

How did the Seltzer poll impact the election narrative?

The Seltzer poll, which inaccurately showed Kamala Harris leading in Iowa, created a false sense of momentum for the left and demoralized some right-wing supporters, but ultimately did not reflect the actual election results.

What was the significance of Trump winning Hispanic and youth votes?

Trump's success in winning over Hispanic and youth votes in traditionally Democratic areas like Star County and Center County demonstrated a significant realignment and undermined the Democrats' traditional strongholds.

How did the Democrats' internal issues contribute to their loss?

The Democrats faced a crisis of leadership and a lack of consensus on key issues, with some factions pushing for more left-wing policies while others advocated for a return to the center, leading to a divided and ineffective campaign strategy.

What was the impact of the ground game on the election results?

The ground game, particularly efforts by Turning Point USA and other grassroots organizations, was crucial in mobilizing voters and ensuring high turnout in key states, which directly contributed to Trump's victory.

Why did Joe Scarborough's analysis on MSNBC stand out?

Joe Scarborough's analysis was notable for its professional tone and acknowledgment of Trump's broad appeal, which was a departure from the typical partisan rhetoric seen on mainstream media.

How did the student polls compare to traditional public polls in accuracy?

The student polls, particularly those conducted among eighth graders, were found to be more accurate predictors of the election outcome than traditional public polls, reflecting a more unfiltered view of public sentiment.

What was the significance of Trump winning the popular vote?

Winning the popular vote demonstrated that Trump's appeal was not limited to a narrow base but extended to a broad coalition of voters, challenging the narrative that he was only popular among extreme MAGA supporters.

How did the media's narrative about women outvoting men influence the election?

The media's focus on women outvoting men inadvertently helped spike male turnout, as right-wing influencers and the campaign leveraged the narrative to energize male voters, contributing to higher overall turnout.

Chapters
Charlie Kirk reflects on his efforts and those of his team in contributing to Trump's victory, emphasizing the importance of grassroots work and the impact of their ground game in key states.
  • Charlie Kirk's team played a significant role in winning Wisconsin.
  • The ground game was crucial in getting Trump declared the victor on election night.
  • The team's efforts were met with significant opposition and media scrutiny.

Shownotes Transcript

The greatest comeback in American history reached its culmination last night. Donald Trump is once again president-elect of the United States — and he's stronger than ever before. Praise God! Charlie and crew the decisive shifts that made Tuesday's win possible, talk to Mark Halperin about the race’s deciding factors, and look at the important races where the results are still close and hard work can get MAGA allies over the finish line.

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