Is Crime Really Down? What's the Truth? ft. Heather Mac Donald
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My co-pilot here, Blake, is here with us in case the voice gets out. And we have one of my favorite guests right now. It is Heather MacDonald, author of the book When Race Trumps Merit, How the Pursuit of Equity Sacrifices Excellence, Destroys Beauty, and Threatens Lives. Also, the contributing editor to the City Journal, of which I read everything she publishes. Heather MacDonald, welcome back to the program.

Well, Charlie, you're a real trooper. When I feel like you sound, I'm like completely, I'm not going to do anything. So I'm very impressed by your stamina and determination. But obviously these are very crucial times and we need your voice in there. So thank you for powering through your awful cold and flu. Well, thank you. Yeah. And I actually feel fine. It's what happens when you do seven outdoor events in 24 hours. And, you know, your voice just gives out. So appreciate that.

So, Heather, on the mainstream media and also on some of my interactions on campus, some students are saying, Charlie, crime is down. Crime is down. The FBI says crime is down. Let's play Cut 74 to kind of set the table here. Let's play Cut 74. Violent crime is actually down across the U.S. New statistics from the FBI show an estimated 3% drop last year. Let's talk about this with CNN's chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst, John Miller. All right, John, walk us through these numbers.

Well, what we're seeing is a couple of numbers of significance. So first, going to the overall numbers, and we can look at that graphic, you've got violent crime overall, that's shootings, manslaughter, murder, down 3%. So that's a good story on a day when we're hearing bad news out of places like Birmingham. Property crime overall, down 2.4%. So that is from 2022 to 2023. Okay.

Okay, Heather, what's the truth here? The truth is you're using the wrong, he's using the wrong benchmark. When Americans feel like crime is up, when they see the anarchy, when they see the disorder, they are not wrong, Charlie. If you are living in a city, there's a distinction in this country between suburban crime and urban crime. You've seen a 40% increase since the George Floyd race riots.

We have seen the largest one-year increase in homicides in this country in 2020, up 29%. The trivial decreases last year do not begin to erase the crime anarchy that has broken out since George Floyd and since Biden and Harris legitimated that riots and started the whole attack on the police as racist.

Yeah, thanks, Heather. This is Blake. And can you put into context, I think a lot of people had the sense that, you know, obviously 2020 was a very dangerous year with a lot of mayhem. How much did crime go up in 2020, 2021? And by comparison, how much has the decline been since then?

In 2020, homicides rose 29%. That is the largest increase in homicide in this nation's history. And it's frankly a statistical increase that in any field is almost unheard of. Last year, the FBI is showing that homicides went down 11% nationally. That doesn't begin to increase, to decrease rather, the homicide shooting rate.

shootings, the insane drive-by shootings that have broken out in urban areas. And we're still living with the consequences today. We're living with it with property crime. We all know the shoplifting. We all know the insanity of having major just trivial household items

locked under key. We have capitulated to the forces of anarchy. Government is not protecting us. It's not protecting property and it's not protecting lives.

Yeah, and even going bigger picture than that, so crime went up in 2020, but I've also seen it stated, crime's kind of also up from about, I think 2014, we got the first wave of BLM with the Ferguson stuff, Michael Brown. And so that's when you saw, you know, murders went way up in Baltimore, in other cities. And so the long-term trend is definitely one of much higher crime almost entirely within our cities.

Absolutely. And again, this is a trend that is manmade. It is a result of law enforcement backing off from its lawful powers. It's a result of the demoralization of cops. It's the result of progressive prosecutors who have decided they would rather not enforce the law

than put black criminals in jail. And these policies were embraced by the Biden administration. Biden took every opportunity to say that black parents are right to fear that their kids are going to be killed by a cop every time they step outside. Kamala Harris, after the George Floyd incident, also said we have a systemic racism problem in this country, including in law enforcement.

These problems are not going to go away unless we change the governing philosophy with regards to law enforcement. The police have nothing to apologize for, Blake. They're the most restrained force in history at this point. And if you want to talk about who should fear going outside, as usual, the rates of interracial violent crime are just the opposite of what the media tells you. When you look at all violent crime,

between blacks and whites and whites and blacks, excluding homicide, because this is self-reported, blacks commit 76% of all violent crime between blacks and whites and whites and blacks. That makes blacks 16 times more likely to violently attack a white person than vice versa. And yet the narrative is it's white supremacy is the problem. Lies, lies, and lies.

Yeah. And so, Heather, the agenda seems to be a war on white people, a war on

Kind of the people that are in the homeland. I'm just not white people are the ones in the homeland. Black Americans are Hispanic Americans. But it seems that a through line is a oligarchy or a ruling class that has contempt for the people that are here for a preference for those that are not here. And if there is any if there's any part of the population that seems to be criticized, smeared and slandered, it is white.

White male Americans. Why is that? What is behind that, Heather? Hatred, but then it's an infinite regress. What explains that hatred? Resentment,

and a hatred of bourgeois values. The government has decided that its primary obligation at this point is to the dysfunctional and antisocial, hardworking, law-abiding, taxpaying Americans who are treated like ATM cash machines simply to fund these ineffective social programs and welfare transfers. It's the great inversion. Government's primary responsibility is to the law-abiding and the hardworking.

but every, you know, all the homeless policy, all the immigration policy, it is absurd that we are erasing the distinction between legal and illegal and citizen and non-citizen. But government has decided that it somehow has to atone for what is by now purely

imaginary flaws on the part of a white male civilization. Yes, America was extremely racist. It was violating its founding ideals every single day for much of its history. We are not that country today. And every time that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden insist that we still are, Biden says we have this enduring stain of racism in our soul.

They are asking for more anarchy, for more hatred, for more racial division, none of which needs to exist today or should exist. And what it does, Heather, it disallows us from actually having policy that might be best for the country if everything is racist behind it. So, for example...

You can't have shoplifting regulations in certain convenience stores because they say, well, you might be racially profiling because I don't know what the number is, Blake. XYZ in urban areas, shoplifting is done by young black men. Heather, you would know the statistics, but it's probably upwards of 50%, right? It makes the country worse, doesn't it? It doesn't allow us to enforce laws, customs, or regulations that would improve the safety because, well, we don't want to be racist.

Charlie, you're absolutely right. Race drives everything in the criminal justice system today. If your listeners sort of are scratching their heads looking around what's going on with these progressive prosecutors that are announcing they're not going to enforce a whole basket of laws, it's all because of race. It's all because if law enforcement does enforce the law in a colorblind, neutral way, it will have a disparate impact on black criminals, not because the law is racist. It is not.

It is because the black crime rate is so high. The solution to that is not to emasculate policing, not to stop enforcing the law. It's to bring the family back together. That's a long-term proposition. In the short term, if you want to save black lives, and we shall never accept the fiction that the Black Lives Matter activists actually want to save black lives. They don't give a damn about black lives. They have never...

once protested a black victim of a black criminal. But if you do want to save those lives, you would need the police and you need law enforcement.

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Remember this from the debate. Let's play cut 75. Crime here is up and through the roof. Despite their fraudulent statements that they made, crime in this country is through the roof. And Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is actually coming down in this country. But excuse me, the FBI defraud. They were defrauding statements. They didn't include the worst cities. They didn't include the cities with the worst crime.

And that is true. They lacked data from, I don't know, Los Angeles, not exactly the safest city in America. And then also the National Crime Victimization Survey run by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and administered by the Census Bureau found that urban violent crime increased 40 percent from 2019 to 2023, excluding simple assault. The urban violent crime rate rose 54 percent over that span. Heather, your reaction? Well, that's true. I think

Trump is a little exaggerating. Yes, L.A. is not in the FBI numbers, but they get a lot of agencies. But again, the real issue here, Charlie, is are you looking at national figures, which homogenizes what's going on in cities? Because the urban crime rate is much, much higher. And when are you measuring from? You know, a 3% decrease nationally in crime last year does not erase

the massive increase in all forms of crime, property crime, carjacking, violent crime that we saw starting in 2020. So the FBI, I think fraud is a little bit extreme. I don't think it's trying to hide the numbers. It has shifted its data collection methods, but it's getting that more in sync. The problem is how you spin what are

fairly good numbers and what you're comparing to. And if you're living in a city, believe your eyes, don't believe the mainstream media. Believe your eyes when you see the looting, the shoplifting, the sense of entitlement, the absence of any kind of fear of law enforcement. The videos are not telling lies, they're telling the truth. We are living in a long-term

disintegration of the expectations of law and order. We have capitulated to the forces of anarchy and we don't need to do this. We need to turn it around because you cannot have a civilization when property owners, when store owners cannot assume that their employees are safe and that their goods are safe.

Nobody should apologize for defending property. You get the AOCs of the world during the George Floyd race riot saying, well, they're just businesses. They've got insurance to cover their losses. No, I'm sorry. That is not correct. If government cannot protect not just lives, but the expectation that property is secure and that businesses can operate safely,

insecurity with their customers, there is no more civilization. That is well said. Heather, if Donald Trump wins the presidency, what can a president do about a local urban crime spree, if anything?

Well, Charlie, that's a very essential distinction. By and large, crime is a matter of local policies, what the police are going to enforce. Are they told to ignore illegal behavior because it, you know, again, has a disparate impact if they go after street criminals? Are prosecutors saying they're not going to enforce the law?

But what really matters is the rhetoric from the White House, is the tone set by the president. What I heard was a lot has to do with the economy, and I will tell you that is not correct. That is the biggest lie. These kids that are out there on the street corner shooting each other, they all have smartphones. Despite what the Chicago mayor, Brandon Johnson, says, when you get these rampaging youth on the Magnificent Mile on Michigan Avenue downtown that

Well, the problem is they don't have opportunities. That is total BS. They all have smartphones. Social media is the police's best friend because all these kids throw their gang signs, they show off their loot, they show off their guns on social media. Any child that has a smartphone is not deprived of opportunities. Crime is actually almost inversely correlated with economic opportunities. We saw in the 60s it was a strong economy. Urban crime started going through the roof because we started excusing

bad behavior on the theory of you should not blame victims. The depression was the greatest economic trauma in this country's history. Crime was virtually absent. So crime is not a function of economic need. It's a function of greed. It's a function of greed. And now I'm getting your problem. I'm sorry. I somehow gave it to you over the air. That's a remarkable feat of epidemiology. I've never seen such a thing.

Heather, great work. And I will summarize it, which is crime is because of bad values, not because of lack of stuff. And a society deciding to not enforce laws otherwise says that crime is a choice, both to commit it and to allow it. Crime is a choice. Heather, thank you so much. Thanks so much, Charlie. Feel better.

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Okay, very important story here, and this is a theme that we are seeing. Joining us now is Jeff Poore, editor-in-chief of 1819news.com. Jeff, welcome to the program. You guys started reporting on this story that's happening in Alabama, and it seems as if it's happening across the country, of the federal government that is flying in foreigners into these small, conservative, sleepy towns.

Now, Alabama is a very conservative state. They didn't vote for having mass Haitian resettlement in their state. Tell us what is real and what is not. Are Alabamans living through a massive wave of foreigners coming into their state?

It could be the very beginning of a wave. At least it looks as such. I would say this. There's these NGOs that seem to be playing a role in this, and they're looking around the state, and they're saying, hey, where can we settle these people? They're not really asking the locals, and that's sort of the rub there.

But they're settling in these small towns, and sometimes they're drawn by, like, there's poultry processing plants seem to be a big draw here. It's wherever they can find them work and a place to live, and this seems to be a magnet. And what it's doing, though, is if you've seen some of the national news, is people are like, well, we have a problem with this. The language barrier is one.

One thing, you know, Haitian Creole is not something a lot of people speak. Number one, I would say number two, you know, already there's a burden on a lot of the local infrastructure. Let's talk about health care, a lot of that. And people don't feel braced for what's going on with this resettlement. So, yeah, Jeff, let's play some piece of tape here. Let's play cut 88, please.

Rumors of illegal or legal immigrants coming to Fairhope were quickly squashed Monday night by city council members and the mayor. But that didn't appease the concerns of residents. Legal immigration in Coffey County. Did they ask for it? No.

But you did. One by one, residents took the mic. I've got plenty of compassion. I've got as much as you do. But you know what's going on in Spring Hill, Ohio. Concerned about influxes happening across the country. Fairhope residents worry that if it happens here without a plan established ahead of time, the school system will crumble and laws will be broken left and right. So I'm going to read a little piece of the letter that you signed.

We continually hear from our constituents that they believe in and support refugee resettlement. From greeting refugee families at the airport to assisting with English language classes or navigating bus lines, our communities stand welcome. I don't remember you asking anybody that's here how they felt about that.

So, Jeff, why is it that the leaders of these towns seem so intent on punishing the people that they're tasked to govern? There is a real disconnect here, and I cannot explain it. But and this isn't just a phenomenon in the Fairhope situation, but typically what you're seeing, the state, the state level elected officials and even the congressmen and federal officials are kind of on the side of, hey, well, let's hit the brakes on this resettlement program.

And these mayors and these city councils are very dismissive of

of these concerns. And I can tell you this, in Alabama, we have nonpartisan municipal elections. I don't know if they want to ostracize, if they think they're ostracizing half the community or something like that. I mean, it's not really half in Alabama. It's a very red Republican place. That piece of tape you just played, it all stemmed from this. One of the city council president in Fairhope signed a letter saying,

And it was sent to Joe Biden on September 12th of this year. But it just extolled the virtues of these so-called asylum seekers, these refugees, and bringing them to your community and what they offer the community. And it's just all this flowery language. And you see that, and it's almost like it reads like an invitation, come to our community. So only three signatories in Alabama signed.

two state lawmakers and the city council president. And I think that's what got people kind of concerned here because we see it going on in these neighboring towns all around the state of Alabama that they are resettling these, what I guess you will call refugees for lack of a better term, that are being settled under the CHNV program.

And they think, well, did the city council president issue an invitation to bring them here? And why did you do that? We did not say that was okay. We didn't even have a discussion about this. And there's sort of this pushback like, oh, you and your crazy rumor mongering, go back to your Facebook pages or whatever. I don't know, like a city, almost an elitism with the city council here.

Let's play another piece of tape here. Let's play cut 87. I'm a Baldwin County resident. My mother-in-law was recently killed in a tragic automobile accident in Grand Rapids, Michigan. This was in June 2022. She was not distracted. She was not on her phone. She was driving under the speed limit, seatbelt buckled, several car distances away, most likely with her hands at 10 and 2. She was as cautious and careful and law-abiding as they come. Born and raised in that area.

She served at the local school for over 20 years, volunteered relentlessly at her church. She loved her community dearly and devoted her life to it in many ways. As she drove to pick up cabinet hardware to complete the dream kitchen she had worked on and waited 25 years for, her car rapidly approached a vehicle in front of her on US 131. She slowed and brought her vehicle to a complete stop as she realized that car in front of her was actually in reverse on the interstate. Though she saw him,

though she controlled her own vehicle. My mother-in-law was hit from the rear at full speed of 77 miles per hour by another innocent woman. Then her car imploded into the driver in front. They were both killed in the accident. Both Christians, both community servants, one a teacher, one a nurse.

So that was a testimony in Fairhope, Alabama. And she sounds like she's from the Midwest. And I'm not sure if the driver was illegal or not. But albeit very powerful testimony there. So, so, Jeff, I'm curious, has the governor of Alabama come out and spoken against the potential resettling of these foreigners, saying that there will be no resettlement in the state of Alabama?

Governor Ivey's spoken out against it, but here's the way they caveat it. It's like, our hands are tied. This is a federal issue. The federal government can do what it wants to do, which –

Obviously, to a lot of people here is kind of underwhelming, I think. But the governor's paid lip service, lieutenant governor, the attorney general, those those the upper echelons of state government have at least rhetorically pushed back against it. But I don't know that they are necessarily exercising all the tools at their disposal. Yeah, I just and what percentage of the people in Alabama do you think would be OK with this kind of.

resettlement program? I would say very few, maybe 10, 15 percent. I mean, there's some people who are true believers here. Don't get me wrong. But the resettlement program, it's very curious. You can resettle a lot of immigrants or refugee asylum seekers in Alabama and not really face any political repercussions.

It's just kind of curious that this is all happening right in the middle of a presidential election. But sources tell me or tell 1819 News, look, they see that January 20th deadline approaching. And what if Trump is elected? Well, he's going to rescind this CHNV program. And then what potential next step would be would we deport Trump?

these asylum seekers or whatever you want to call them the Cubans Haitians Nicaraguans and Venezuelans back to their home countries well he's tried this before you go back to the travel ban when Trump was first elected president the first thing we saw when he tried to use his executive authority was these liberal storefronts ACLU SPLC types run to federal court they'll go find a federal judge they'll

They'll get an injunction that will stall the process. It'll be appealed in an appeals court. And then eventually the Supreme Court will rule on it. But that could be up to three years away. So it's like they're buying time here. But in the meantime, they have this set amount of Haitian refugees or Venezuelans or whoever it is. They're trying to, I think, try to settle at different places around the country. Yeah, that's a good point. And I mean, look, the American people don't want this. He had to keep saying getting force fed to us.

Jeff, tell us about your news outlet and how people can support you. It's 1819news, 1819news.com, where it's kind of a state-based, you know, we need more of this around the country. But at the state level, trying to promote the conservative values, at least getting conservative perspective out there and make sure that those issues are at least being talked about and brought about in a way that's meaningful and maybe impactful. So it's 1819news.com. Jeff, thank you so much. Thanks.

Thanks for having me. Blake, it seems as if this is a pattern where they're flooding the reddest areas of the country. Why is that? One, I feel like... Is it retaliation?

Yeah, I do think I would be shocked if there aren't at least a few people who think these are beachheads to get people into these communities. But a lot of it's also they can justify it's cheaper. You know, it's cheaper to live there. You often have local. It feels dramatic to say this, but like collaborators who say a lot of these places might have falling populations and they say this is how we get workers because we struggle. Like that's what would the excuses in Springfield.

business owners say, we can't get anyone to work here. And these Haitians are showing up and they do work. It's great. And so let's bring in even more of them. It is. I think it's retaliation. You vote for Trump. We flood your community with Haitians.

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Blake, what is going on with Israel? All right. Yes. It feels like we were talking about this every day for a while. Explain the actors. What is Hezbollah, Lebanon? So, yeah, big picture. So first, people, if you're looking at the news, you'll see there's conflict between Israel and Hezbollah now. Airstrikes, possible ground invasion coming. Big picture. This goes back decades. Hezbollah is a...

political party slash paramilitary organization slash terrorist group that operates out of southern Lebanon. Lebanon is the country immediately north of Israel.

They are notably, they are Shia Muslims. So that's the same group that is in Iran. So that's different from most Muslims in the area. Most Muslims are Sunni Muslims. So they're Shia. They're allies of Iran. And they have this, they basically, they fought Israel back in the 1980s when Israel was involved in Lebanon. There was a civil war there. They've had a lot of clashes since then. Israel briefly invaded Lebanon in, I think it was 2006. Yeah.

And they're one of those parties that loves shooting rockets at Israel all of the time. They are...

a much more formidable group than Hamas is. Hamas only really operates out of Gaza. They're very marginal and weak. Hezbollah is a lot more significant. They've been getting a lot of funding from Iran for years. They also were involved in the Syrian civil war. They fought to help Bashar Assad stay in power. So a lot of the guys have fought quite a bit. They have tens of thousands of fighters. And so there's always been some level of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

It went up a lot about a year ago when the October 7th attack happened. Israel invades Gaza and sort of out of solidarity with Hamas, Hezbollah ups their rocket attacks into Israel. And then again, there's back and forth strikes. What really sent it up again over the summer, there was a rocket attack on, I believe, a soccer practice field in the Golan Heights. And it killed, I think, 12 people and like children.

And this was bad enough. It was a huge story in Israel, huge deal. And I think it killed members of the Druze minority. So it wasn't even an attack on Jews. It was an attack on a different religious group. And on top of that, it was so bad. Hezbollah actually has denied responsibility for this, which they normally don't do that.

So again, back and forth. A couple, I think last week, there was a very fun story because Israel... We didn't cover it at all. We didn't cover it, which is a tragedy. The pagers? Yes. So Israel appears to have somehow got into the supply chain for the pagers used by Hezbollah, and they loaded them with explosives. It doesn't look like they hacked it. It just hacked it. It looks like they literally put explosives in their pager devices and...

And then they blew them all up. And so they killed several dozen members of Hezbollah and several others received, you know, sex change surgeries involuntarily. And so now...

It's all ramping up. The reason you should care about this is... This might be a legit war. This is the one... If Israel invades Lebanon, that is a much bigger deal than them going into Gaza. This is not a place Israel occupies. This is a much more formidable force. And it's one that's much more directly allied with Iran. Like, yeah, Iran sponsors terrorist groups all over, but this is...

The number one Iranian client group. So if you were going to have a surprise war in October, that is another giant conflict under the Biden administration. This is how it could happen. And so but what helped me understand Israel going to war with Hezbollah.

Is related or unrelated to October 7th? It's related in the sense that October 7th greatly increased the tensions all over the place. And so it did lead to more rocket attacks on them. And I think it also just it put Israel on much more of a war footing overall. So they've been more combative against some of these groups. So they've done more stuff in the West Bank, more stuff in

against Lebanon. So they've done a bunch of airstrikes over the last year in Lebanon that's killed a few hundred people. I mean, mostly Hezbollah members. And just has a lot of potential for it to ramp up. And of course, that increases the danger of a regional war. And frankly, because of the political situation, increases the risk of a conflict that people will try to drag us into. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless.

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