How Turning Point Action Delivered the White House
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Hey everybody, it's time for the Charlie Kirk Show. Tyler Boyer joins us for an in-depth election analysis. tpaction.com helped deliver the White House for Donald Trump. Turning Point Action, no important organizations in the country than Turning Point USA and Turning Point Action. That's Turning Point USA and Turning Point Action. tpusa and tpaction.com. Get your tickets to AmericaFest, the largest event of the year. That is amfest.com in Phoenix, Arizona.

December 19, 2021, 22. All the big names are going to be there. Amfest.com. That is A-M-F-E-S-T.com. As always, you can email us, freedom at charliekirk.com. Buckle up, everybody. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here.

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So much is happening right now. We have our eyes on all of it. We want to spend this hour to go through some of the political dynamics of what is unfolding and really go through still a diagnostic deep report of what happened this last election, what turning point action was able to do, how many ballots we chased, how many low propensity voters we were able to get out to the polls. But first, I want to remind you guys to please vote.

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event of the year. That is amfest.com, A-M-F-E-S-T.com. All right, with us is the commanding officer, COO of Turning Point Action, Tyler Boyer. Tyler, good to see you. Tyler, let's go through Arizona first. Let's brag on the verifiable success of what Turning Point Action was able to do. Arizona, the best performing swing state, Arizona.

Arizona, we were able to win by nearly five and a half points. It's actually right near 5.6, right? 5.7. Much better performance than even in 2016 when Donald Trump won. What was turning point action able to do in the great state of Arizona? No, you know, Charlie, and it's a huge credit to our entire team.

First off, good to see you. Thanks for all the hard work that you're doing right now. Still doing. Many people don't know it or appreciate it enough, but what Charlie's doing right now is really tough work.

No, our team had really gone in and we looked at this and we sat down, Charlie and I sat down, you know, really look at the postmortem of 2020 and then watching in horror as basically we just waited to see the result of what the Republican establishment, the national apparatus that they were going to do to help fix Arizona did.

And as we say so many times, the Calvary didn't come. And so we knew very rapidly leading into 2022, we had to do something massive in the state because Arizona, as we've repeated on this show many, many times, is kind of like the Democrats, Michigan. If you lose Arizona, your statistical chance of winning the presidency goes way down, way, way down.

to the tune of like over 70% of a likelihood based off of the current map. So having our team organized, we had to build this thing fast. We basically replicated what they've built in Michigan. So a similar construct in Michigan, what the Democrats have done there, we built that in basically 18 months. And they've spent the better part of probably 18 years building that there. So

We are really proud of the team that we have. We spread our people across the state evenly and very specifically to areas that needed the most assistance. And how we went about our work was really simple. And we're going to talk about this a whole lot in the coming next two or four years as we prepare to enter into other states and to expand in other states.

and looking at how do you properly place enough people in order to chase enough ballots. And we did that through our super chase model. How many ballots did we, how many disengaged low propensity voters did we chase in Arizona? So we know we, I mean, we had a target audience in Arizona. So to put this into perspective, when all is said and done, Arizona is going to be again at about three and a half million, just a little bit more than three and a half million voters in

And so that was the target that we looked at. And we took a universe of about just shy of 400,000 people that we knew we could contact, which I mean, quick math, that's over 10% of the voters. So you're looking at a base of at least 10% of the voters plucking out the people who are least likely to vote. When you do that,

you know, the method and methodology that again, the left uses. And now what we are using is chase, put enough bodies on the ground to chase half of those people. That's 5%.

Well, if you can do better than that, you know, you're going to be able to get your candidates across the finish line in a bigger number. If you don't hit that number and the polls, again, are within those margins, which all the swing states are, we know, are within those have been two, three, four or five points. You could lose. You could lose any state.

And we look at Wisconsin, for example, Charlie, you know, that's one of those states that Trump has won and lost by very slim margins, including this year. We did that work and performed that same work in Wisconsin, and he barely won, right? We barely pulled out a W there. And so this work really matters a lot. And it really comes down to just knowing the numbers. You've got to lay out how many votes are there in total, how many are you expecting,

What kind of percentage are you looking at? If you look at public polling, which not all of it's good. We know that, right? We saw in Iowa, we can't trust every poll. But, you know, you can take a smattering of those polls, identify, you know, what's winnable, and then based off of the winnability of a state,

can we put enough bodies on the ground to chase enough votes to make a difference? And that's what we did in Arizona. That's what we did in Wisconsin. That's what we did in Michigan. So it was the number in Arizona was upwards of 200,000. Is that fair to say?

Yeah. So in Arizona, we ultimately chase Charlie. We will have the final, final numbers confirmed by actual voter data, which they have not yet released in Maricopa County. So we know Maricopa County counts slow. They also, believe it or not, release voter data very slow. And so that those numbers will be finalized. But what we have confirmed between what we know.

And the people that we've chased, that we've confirmed, we well exceeded 200,000 voters, which is above our projections, above what our goals were pretty significantly. And that's also and I'm looking at the numbers here. That is more than the margin of which Donald Trump won the state of Arizona by. Donald Trump won the state of Arizona by about one hundred and.

86,000 votes, if my math is right, ish, 186,000 votes, which, by the way, is a triumph. But you count those 200,000 people. Without that work, Tyler, Arizona would have been a nail-biter, if not a Kamala Harris victory. Is that fair to say? Oh, it's very fair to say, Charlie. I mean, we ended up with three points right now before... I mean, we're still counting votes in Arizona, so...

You know, I think we're finally hit the 99 percentile here now, so there'll still be some trickling in. But we're looking like in the presidential race, there was over 3.3 million votes cast. That's a little bit below what happened last election in 2020. But that's a pretty, pretty sizable amount of people.

But yeah, I mean, right now where we're sitting, Donald Trump wins this election by less than 200,000 votes. We can attest to the people that turned in ballots that we had pretty significant contact with. And we're not talking, you know, going and hanging a door hanger on their door, not sending a text message. Those are nice things that you need and you need other groups to do as vote reminders. We were building relationships together.

having five, six, seven, eight, nine meaningful relational contacts with these people. And that's the difference. Bringing them cookies, offering to help, bringing their groceries, seeing them at the park, waving them at the mailbox, being from their neighborhood.

That is what moves votes. That is how you get people to turn out who are not likely to turn out. That effectivity through our process was able to get Donald Trump across the finish line and not just Arizona, but we believe in Wisconsin as well.

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Well, you know, and this is one thing I actually wanted to point out that over the break, I had our team just pull the quick numbers because I'm kind of behind a few days here just looking at the updates from where the vote totals are ending up. There's something kind of very interesting that's happened this last election cycle. And we knew this going in Arizona, Wisconsin, we knew we're going to have very similar turnout numbers.

uh arizona wisconsin only had a difference of about 30 000 votes in total turnout which that's where it stands as of today and again arizona still counting some votes really crazy and i misspoke earlier i said that last time was a little bit bigger we've actually now eclipsed last time but this time in arizona and the only difference the the margin of vote difference between 2020

And 2024 is now only about 5,000 votes, which is mind-blowing because it was looking like along the pathway here that there were going to be less turnout.

Wisconsin, kind of the same thing. Wisconsin actually has a little bit of a higher turnout than they had in 2020 as well, which was totally unexpected. But that does actually tell a story about how these states, the Sun Belt and even the Rust Belt, have gotten redder and become redder. And that was not something that was predicted by a lot of pundits heading into this election.

The general consensus, Charlie, if you remember, was going into election day, the Sun Belt looks like it's pretty red, but the Rust Belt looks like Kamala is going to take all three states. Or it looks like it's going to be more blue than it was last time in Michigan, even in some other places. And that didn't happen at all. In fact, if you look at, there's been some diagrams that showcase that.

the changes that have happened over the last two election cycles and these individual counties, I know we've covered it a little bit on your program, is it is getting redder and deep red. So it wasn't, you know, Donald Trump just flipping the

counties, it was counties going from light red to deep red. And that is a phenomenon that is hard to reverse for the Democrat Party, because now you have what we call habitual voters now becoming much more used to and okay with voting for a Republican president.

And a lot of pundits, again, will notice trends in presidential victories that some states are just very solid Republican presidential states. While, you know, they may vote for Democrat governors or Democrat senators. This is very bad for the Democrats because what seemingly is happening and if the Republican Party can seize upon this is create habitual Republican voting states for president.

And that would make our life a lot easier if we could accomplish that in places like Arizona and Nevada, for example, and the Sunbelt.

And it obviously returned things back to normal in the South and Georgia and North Carolina. So but really quick here in Wisconsin, we definitely chased more than 30,000 low propensity ballots. Is that right? Yeah. In fact, it was pretty widely covered. We talked about it here on your show. We partnered with Elon Musk's America PAC because there was

Out of all the states, we looked around. We were one of the only people to put a full-time office in the most important part of Wisconsin, which is Waukesha County. If you know the Milwaukee WOW area, they call it the WOW area because of the three counties that immediately surround Milwaukee. That's Waukesha, Washington County, and Ozaukee County.

Those three counties are your red counties. Those are your offset to the deep blue territory in Milwaukee. And Milwaukee had something happen in it that hasn't really happened recently, which is that there was significantly lower voter turnout early there, which definitely increased the Republican margins in the deeper blue areas.

And the outside counties were able to maintain their margins pretty steadily from last election, which gave Donald Trump a significant edge in the wow area.

And so when you look at this, going back to your question was, you know, how many ballots did we chase that were low propensity? We hit, in addition to helping Elon's group and working together and hand in hand with them to get out the vote, we also had over 60,000. And we're still waiting on voter data as well there. We're hoping that it's going to end up being more 60,000 voters who are less likely voters who we are able to get turned out. So that was the difference.

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We're going to have the entire Real America's Voice set up there. We'll be doing our shows live. It is a can't-miss event. Phoenix, Arizona, amfest.com, amfest.com. Okay.

Okay, let's get Blake in on the conversation here. Blake, so what right now is the tone or the tenor of the Democrat Party? We annihilated them. It was a landslide. We won the popular vote. We demolished on the electoral vote. They were repudiated. How are things going in Democrat world right now? Well, I think I have good news and great news. The good news is that

Democrats in the middle are telling the members of their party, guys, we've gone too far. The party got too weird. It's caused all these problems for us. And the great news is the far left is going, that's not true. And then they're freaking out and they're throwing people overboard. This is a few weeks ago, but conservatives may not have heard about it. Is it Moulton? Moulton? Seth? The guy from Massachusetts. Yeah.

uh, he basically came out and was like, yeah, my, you know, I've got two daughters. I don't want a guy being in the restroom with them. And then one of his staffers quit and like they're, they're publicly shaming him. And so this is still unfolding all over the place. You definitely have a lot of people who say we lost because we weren't weird enough. It's like a sick twisted version of, you might remember like twice, 2012,

2010 you'd have you know someone so-and-so would lose and then they go like they lost because they weren't conservative enough and it turned out it was kind of true we needed a different version of conservatism basically but for the left they're going no we aren't weird enough we need more of like the weirdest people out there and i think it's causing a lot of problems for their party and it's going to be really interesting to see how the dnc election goes yeah so so tyler

Do you believe that they're going to moderate themselves? What is the path forward? I think the more radical progressive elements are actually going to come out and roar. I think that they're going to lean further into the left wing elements to their base. Yeah, it's funny. A guy that absolutely hates our guts that I have been just like provoking at the az central at that's the Arizona Republic here locally. Who's an opinion columnist EJ Montini. This was his opinion today.

Governor Katie Hobbs tries masquerading as Kyrsten Sinema. It's a bad idea. And here's why. And this is what's happening across the country. You're exactly right. The left wingers on this, the absolutely radical progressive side of the party is trying to tell everybody, no, no, no, no, no. Don't be like Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema. You'll be dead.

And the reality is, is that part of the reason why those guys are gone is because of the progressive wing of the entire party. So we're going to see a lot more of this that's happening. You know, for us, it's really positive because, I mean, look, we're walking into a Congress where.

The left wing is making our side that people consider more right wing, our Freedom Caucus, look very common sense. And the Freedom Caucus members outnumber the separation between Democrats and Republicans. So we're going to have another, I think, fairly conservative House session here that's coming up. And nothing can be more exciting than that when you couple that together with Donald Trump being the president.

That's why everybody's so focused on our U.S. Senate right now. Our senators have to step up. They have to do a good job. They have to follow suit. They have to nail these guys, focus on attacking the left and not attacking Donald Trump. And this is where they have a real fork in the road between the confirmations with Donald Trump.

And what we know is the radical left that's losing big time across the country. So so let me ask, Blake, if you were trying to give advice on how to get these cabinet officials selected and confirmed, not selected, but confirmed to the Trump team, how do you think that should be done from a strategic standpoint?

It's a good question. I think one of the biggest advantages we have is the fact that so Democrats are still fighting amongst themselves. And that helps it, you know, in people's minds. We already had, you know, on the election night, we won the House, we won the Senate. Trump won the popular vote. He won even more than he did in 2016. You have all these factors together to kind of say Trump won. He gets, you know, the chance to do what he wants.

And also, I think it just helps that he was he lost power, but now he came back. He's got a second term. And if you couple that with Democrats being in disarray and as a result, there's not nearly as much of a resistance coming out into existence yet.

You just sort of create this. It's like the psychological environment matters a lot. And the psychological environment is Trump won. The people who are against Trump are like freaking out and they're like, oh, we need to adapt our strategy. We might need to adapt our entire worldview about politics. All of that helps set up a situation where you can't be the Republican who steps in and says, actually, we're going to sabotage your cabinet and cause it to all be a mess.

A lot of these guys, I think you observed it yesterday, Charlie, that the people who speak about, oh, you know, they're wary about this, but they don't like to say it publicly. They don't want to be the guys that they want to try to sabotage anything they can before there's a vote because you can't really be the guy who votes against it. So I think one of the strongest things Trump is doing is Trump has been saying, these are my picks. I'm not going to reconsider them. He said that about Gates just the other day, too.

he's saying we're going to make you vote on an up or down and when you put the metaphorical gun to the head here they're going to i think a lot of them are going to knuckle under a lot of these people are psychologically a bit weak that's why they get browbeaten by the left so easily but right now the left is too disorganized to browbeat anyone so we can browbeat them to stay on side so i think

aggressive posture keep making the picks you want tell them they're gonna have to vote on them we're going to make you have to publicly vote up or down on every single one of these if we don't do the recess appointment approach of course and if you do that i think a lot of these guys are just going to say okay you get your shot because i think they'll i think they'll capitulate basically

Yeah. So. So, Tyler, what is your thoughts on this? Is it time to potentially entertain primaries of red state senators that don't represent their voters? Oh, man, Charlie, this is a really fun year because it's going to you know, who's going to do most of the work for us is the senators themselves. So it's not going to take a ton of convincing to get conservatives out of bed.

And actually, I think it's very helpful ahead of the midterms, quite frankly, to have an energized base that are energized about something. And if we have some people, and I think it's going to be very few, so I totally agree with Blake. I think you're going to have a situation where you have a lot of people who fold because they talk big talk in the cafeteria at the Capitol. But once they're out...

on the floor all of a sudden you know we've seen some of this we've seen some people completely turned 100 around and i wish we had time to kind of go through some fond memories of people talking you know tough talk against trump and then turn it around and becoming you know the biggest trump fans because they got smacked across the face a few times by the by the grassroots

But the grassroots is going to serve up a hot plate of get the heck out of here to some of our senators and some of our deepest red states.

And I don't know if we want to go into that or if we want to start, you know, lobbying those bombs here yet. But there's some there's some very clear places that are deep red, deep, deep red territory where President Trump won by not just double digits, but like, you know, a wide, wide margin, like 20, 30 points where some of these people are having trouble realizing, you know, who's in charge of the party right now.

And it's very clearly Donald Trump. Why is that? Why is it that some of the least conservative people are from the red estates, Tyler? How does that happen? They're not just the least conservative people, Charlie. They're some of the least popular people. And that's what's so mind-blowing is that you look at...

Literally, you can look at surveys and polls on people. Nobody likes these people. Quite literally, no one can pick them off the street. I won't say, again, I've told this story, kind of embarrassing of this person, whoever this person was, but a statewide elected official walked right through their state fair. Nobody even recognized who that person was. These people are, you cannot pick them up off the street. Nobody knows who they are unless they're standing on C-SPAN.

And, you know, I think that's part of the psychological warfare that exists behind the scenes. They talk about the psychology of all this is these are some of these people, you know, live and die by their title and by the love that they receive from lobbyists. And that's pretty much it because they get very little love from the public. The public doesn't like them.

You know, the party in a lot of cases doesn't like them. You know, look at, you know, Cornyn in Texas getting booed off stage because of red flag laws.

and other places like that where it is happening all the time. And so they've kind of just pivoted to their own little corner. And what happens is that you have the NRSC and other places that have a policy of defending incumbents that spend money that keep these people in place because literally no one knows who they are. So people just go, oh, I guess I'll just vote for the guy that has an R next to his name. And that's what's got to change.

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All right. So, Tyler, very quickly here, the status of the grassroots, the grassroots is on fire. Talk about the need to activate the grassroots. And we're going to be doing something at Turning Point Action to give Trump his cabinet. Kind of tease it a little bit, Tyler. We have some big announcements coming about this. Yeah, we've got some huge announcements. The grassroots is the most critical part to the movement because that is who that's been the engine for the Trump campaign.

era. Since 2016, we saw, I think, what's the culmination of the Tea Party movement, the Constitutional Conservatives coming together, now what we call America First Patriots, all coming together and saying, yeah, there's nothing that's going to be able to get in our way. And

That certainly applies to presidential candidates. We saw the slaughtering that happened during the presidential primary. People thought, oh, this is going to be a competitive thing with Donald Trump. And people didn't really understand what they were up against. That's because the people are so far behind our new 47th president, our immediately past best president that we've had. And that is going that...

That is not going to go well for senators who get in the way. And so, you know, our campaign that we're going to be rolling out very quickly here. And a huge thanks to Charlie, who's been the brainchild behind much of it, which is going to be give Trump his cabinet. And we're going to be letting people know that there's a mandate. There's not just a mandate for the president to, you know, just be the guy that's just sitting in the chair behind the Resolute Desk.

It's going to be actually governing and being the executive of this country. And we can't do that if we don't give him his people. And so the senators are going to learn a harsh lesson, a reality, and they're going to come face to face with that mandate themselves if they don't get themselves out of the way. And...

I can't imagine what their argument is going to be, Tyler, if they voted for Merrick Garland and they won't vote for Matt Gaetz. I mean, this will send the grassroots on fire. Yeah, I mean, Charlie, it just reminds me of Jeff Flake, you know, and we'll tell the story about Jeff Flake here over and over again here in Arizona. You know, when he was in office, he became best buddies with Barack Obama, would shoot hoops with him, and he went out and just decided he would approve

all of Barack Obama's cabinet appointments. And a lot of people start scratching their heads. They go, hey, Senator, you were one of the most conservative members of Congress. What the heck are you doing playing basketball with Barack Obama and approving all these

Senate appointments. And the guy turned, he was doing all these things. And then when Trump got in, if we remember correctly, he was one of those voices that stood in the way and said, you know what, I'm not going to vote for any of President Trump's people. And people said, hey, if you were going to vote for, you know, some of these awful, awful, you know, Obama appointees, why won't you vote for, you know, really some real normie Trump-captain appointments?

And if you remember, he was also one of the people that stood in the way for the Supreme Court issues and everything else before he ultimately chose not to run for reelection. That's what the outcome was for Jeff Flake. Senator Flake, who is now a card-carrying Democrat who's going out working for Joe Biden, it's ruined his career completely.

was one of those people that that told himself that he was so you know upset with the trump getting into office and he couldn't you know it was beside himself he couldn't believe that mitt romney could lose and trump could win you know stood there and opposed all these these cabinet appointments and judicial appointments that's what's going to happen to all these other senators they're going to get jeff flaked is what's going to happen to them

Tyler Boyer, very good. Let's go to tpaction.com to follow up more tpaction.com. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.