Did We Do Enough to Save the Country?
01:43:56 Share

Hey everybody, a super episode all about voting. You need to go find a new voter and of course vote yourself. Make a hundred text messages right now. The Trump movement is coming to an end. What are you going to do about it to save the country? Email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com. Subscribe to our podcast. Open up your podcast application and type in Charlie Kirk show. Buckle up everybody. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks. I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here.

Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of The Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals. Learn how you could protect your wealth with Noble Gold Investments at noblegoldinvestments.com. That is noblegoldinvestments.com. It's where I buy all of my gold. Go to noblegoldinvestments.com.

Let's get straight to Steve Bannon. Steve, welcome to the program. Steve, I've been doing your show all weekend. We've been doing super chase events. We right now are crushing the Democrats in early voting right now in Arizona as we are chasing ballots. Steve, what are the marching orders to the faithful right now as we are going in to the final chapter of this Trump story? I

Charlie, I mean, you've been doing this for years. I think what's so amazing is that this is all coming together. If you told us four years ago, Charlie, that on the eve of battle here, political battle, we would be perfectly positioned that they would not have a firewall in any of these states, particularly in Pennsylvania, that we would have crushed them on early voting, which, as you know, people were very hesitant about. What's been so amazing in this grassroots effort led by Charlie Kirk and the Turning Point Action people is,

and with the war room posse as the volunteers is we've done two things. Number one, we've totally changed the makeup of the electorate. The registrations for Republicans have just exploded, whereas Democrats have kind of dropped, but they exploded. That is all the Scott Pressler efforts and the precinct strategy people. That's been amazing. Number two is you sitting there and saying, here's the concept.

It's ballot chasing and here's how we're going to do it. I'm going to put in an infrastructure. I'm going to train people and those people are going to be a cadre, a cadre of leadership. The convergence of those two have us teed up perfectly. The Democrats don't know what's hit them. On top of that,

just as you and I have talked about for the last couple of years, their messaging, their coalition is collapsing around them and our coalition is building. We're adding the RFK. We're adding the Elon Musk, right? We're adding the Tulsi Gabbard. We're additive right now. And we're adding Hispanics.

and African Americans and the Arab Americans in Dearborn and the Somalians in Minneapolis, we're adding in their traditional coalition 'cause they've taken it for granted and screwed those people over is collapsing. But the cadre, the tip of the tip of the spear, the precinct strategy and the turning point action

and you've had all these great events, AmFest, all of it, has led us to the point that we have structurally changed the architecture of the electorate that will show up tomorrow. And you taught people the concept of how you've got to get active, that it is a voting month. And as much as we hate the machines, you heard Tucker, hate the machines, you've got to get out there. We've got to power through that. Then we'll get rid of the machines. But this is historic. Now,

The only thing that matters is what happens tomorrow on game day. We have to play the game now. You hear all this bill of the Super Bowl and some of the teams don't perform. If we perform, given everything that's been done, the prep work, we could have a victory. We could have a big victory, but it's all in the balance. It has not happened. And what concerns me, I gave Newsweek an interview yesterday.

Last night's morning is when the only thing that concerns me is complacency. That's right. And people saying, oh, you know, this is going to be a landslide. I saw the points. Forget the polling. Forget the polling. We have got to go deliver. We have to enforce our will onto history.

And we can do that tomorrow with the tip of the spear, the cadre of the war of posse, the precinct strategy, turning point action, all of it converging into one amazingly powerful force, sir. And Steve, everyone in the audience needs to be a force multiplier. This is not a spectator sport. You've got to empty your phone and text every single person that you know. If we do not show up tomorrow, it will be the greatest unrealized opportunity in American history. Steve, do you agree with that? Absolutely.

The table is set. We have every prerequisite and ingredient that we could have dreamed of. Crushing them in early voting. Their base is not turning out. They don't have a firewall. It's only down to two states. Steve, back in 2016 when you were running the campaign, you needed to go seven for seven. And you guys did. You needed to do Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Arizona. You guys needed to run the table and you did. We got to go one for one basically tomorrow.

We needed to draw to an insight straight in '16. Right now, because by the way, why is Ohio no longer an issue? Why is Florida no longer an issue? It's because of the work of the grassroots to change. It started with changing the electorate, right? And with Trump's message. Now we're on the cusp. North Carolina, here's what we've done. Here's what has happened in the last six weeks. Six weeks ago, as I taught in Danbury to the prisoners, she had multiple paths to victory.

That has all been consolidated now. She's kind of backed into a corner really in the blue wall. And that's why she's lived in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania basically for the last couple of days. They understand Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the ones they're most worried about in the blue wall. We have her backed into a corner.

Victory is at hand. I said on September 26th, the only thing I released from Danbury was I gave a short thing on victory is at hand. The politics of Georgia was over. She was going to pivot to the night falls in America. It wasn't working. It wasn't getting traction, but it was us. It was the grassroots. And look at the amazing deliverance the grassroots has had for this country. All it takes...

is another two days. You know, we power through today and getting everybody mobilized. And then tomorrow you turn out with everything people have to do. Like I said, we're going to be doing coverage. Charlie, you are, I'll be with you. The coverage tomorrow night is doesn't matter. Yes. We want to find out who's doing that and where we're on in election and, you know, make sure election integrity, but it's during the day tomorrow. That is the action. And that just remember this, this, this audience you're about to, you're about to make history.

You're about to make history on something that will never be forgotten.

by the American, you know, next April is the 250th anniversary of Lexington and Concord. Okay, six months away from now. This is the new shot heard around the world will be tomorrow to rejuvenate this country and to get back to the revolutionary principles of our framers. And those heroes actually said, hey, we will take on an empire where, hey, we're taking on the American empire. And tomorrow is going to be a red letter day in that if,

We do the work, sir. And it's just going to come down to the force multiplier energy as well. I mean, look, Steve, we're looking on the margins here of Carrie Lake, which could profoundly change the U.S. Senate. We're looking on the margins here of Bernie Moreno in Ohio. Look, the Democrats, they are seeing the writing on the wall. I was just texting with someone very senior in the Trump campaign. I said, do you think we're going to win? He said, if we show up, we win.

What a dream that is. If we show up, we win. That's the watchword. And people remember, this is the culmination of four years of hard work. President Trump, the political class, you know, basically turned their back on him in January, February of 2021. Four years of hard work. I go back to that Boston Herald. I gave this talk to a Catholic group up in February. This is from the February 15th of 2021. We had the plan.

Could we get the posse and could we get turning point action? Those young people, those young activists actually put their shoulder to the wheel. They did it. And now we're on the cusp of it. You couldn't ask us to be better positioned. You don't need TV ads. You don't need some meme. You don't need Steve Bannon or Tucker Carlson or Charlie Kirk. We need you. This is where you grasp, you grab American history by the throat and say, no, we're turning this country into a different direction that's based on our founding principles.

And that will be tomorrow as we take on the deep state. Steve, last thing for nine years, you and I have been in one way or another behind the Trump movement. It kind of comes to an end politically. It comes to an end tomorrow. Trump will not run again. This is the sense of urgency here. Steve, can you reflect on this nine year arc of history and where this leads us?

Because you had a front row seat. The audience has been there since he went down the escalator. Politically, it ends tomorrow. If we win, it's just the beginning. But you've got 24 hours left to advocate for the man. I hope you guys understand. You will never be able to advocate for this guy politically, Steve.

Well, we'll have many fights once we win, but tonight, that's why tonight's so important. And I'm so pleased the campaign chose to go back to Grand Rapids. And you're going to be broadcasting. I hope to dip in. I don't want to miss this. His last hurrah for an active political campaign and then the victory tomorrow. But remember...

This guy, he's providential with all his flaws. And he's the first to admit he's not perfect. Lincoln wasn't perfect. Washington wasn't perfect. That's why he's the third most important president in this country. Because when he had the last one stolen...

He could have gone back and just, I'm going to go do golf course. I'm going to do this. I've had it. No, he knew in coming back that they were going to put him in prison. They were going to steal his company. They were going to get the felonies. All that was before him. And he still had the courage to say no.

I cannot let this go. And that's why people rallied around him. Remember, we're in the... Although we're nine or 10 years into this, Charlie, and through a few more of the Tea Party movement, we're at the top of the first inning in the populist nationalist movement in this country. The top of the first inning. President Trump will go down as the third most important president in the United States. General Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and now this new American revolution led by President Trump. But he's like...

from the Roman Republic, the early, the myths of the legends of the Roman Republic, "Cincinnatus." He returned from his plow to come back and save the Republic. That's what this is about. There's no amount of gratitude we could give this guy. He's a warrior. And by the way, on the 26th of November, he gets sentenced to prison by this hack judge in New York City.

This is the courage. He is a profile of courage. That's why push this over the goal tomorrow, make American history. And then we get into the first time we get into the close. Cause Tucker said, don't think that the intelligence legal, uh,

military industrial complex, tech complex, is going to sit there and go, hey, Charlie Kirk and these high college kids turned out and got more votes. See you, brother. I'll see you back here tonight for late coverage. Make American history. Tonight we'll be streaming the last MAGA rally live. Steve, thank you so much. You have 24 hours left to advocate for this man. It's been nine years. What are you going to do about it? Donald Trump just got done with his fourth last MAGA rally. He's got three more to go. Three more to go. And then it's done. Finito.

The first ever MAGA rally was here in Phoenix, Arizona. We will have Tyler Boyer tonight covering the last MAGA rally, and he will walk through from the first to the last. He hosted the first ever MAGA rally as the Maricopa County GOP chair, and tonight is the last one ever. So what are you going to do in the audience now that it is nine years? For those of you that love Donald Trump, are you now going to go that extra mile? Are you going to go empty your phone? You need to text every single person in your phone.

I want to just take you back and just remind you how far we've come from this moment all the way to today. Play cut 26. Donald Trump announced and going down that golden escalator. This is an identical message from what he said on day one.

in June of 2015 till today. Play cut 27. Our country is in serious trouble. We don't have victories anymore. We used to have victories, but we don't have them. When was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say, China in a trade deal? When did we beat Japan at anything? When was the last time

You saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo. It doesn't exist, folks. When do we beat Mexico at the border? They're laughing at us, at our stupidity. The U.S. has become a dumping ground for everybody else's problems. That was the beginning of the political movement, and that political movement ends tomorrow. And for you in the audience right now, I want to hear from you, freedom at charliekirk.com.

Tell me the new voters that you have brought to the table. And if you are planning to vote tomorrow, I want to hear from you. Freedom at Charlie Kirk dot com. This this nine year arc of history ends tomorrow.

What are you going to do from then? On Wednesday morning, you will never be able to volunteer for Trump again. On Wednesday morning, you'll never be able to advocate for him again. On Wednesday morning, it is done. Yes, I mean, hopefully he'll be president, but it's all symbolic at that point because he's no longer going to be on the ticket. He said he's not going to run again after this. It's over. If Donald Trump wins, you'll get eight. The data shows you'll be $8,000 richer. This is a longer clip. This is him officially running for the presidency from 2015 to tomorrow morning.

It's about to come to an end. How will we finish it? You can make American history. Let me say that again. You in this audience can make American history by telling every single one you know and open up your phone and texting everyone. Have you voted? Have you voted? Driving people to the polls. No sitting on the couch these next two days. If so, you might be handing the White House to Kamala Harris. You need to be active. You need to be loud. You need to go nuts.

Play cut 31. We need somebody that literally will take this country and make it great again. We can do that. And I will tell you, I love my life. I have a wonderful family. They're saying, Dad, you're going to do something that's going to be so tough. You know, all of my life, I've heard that a truly successful person, a really, really successful person is.

and even modestly successful, cannot run for public office. Just can't happen. And yet that's the kind of mindset that you need to make this country great again. So, ladies and gentlemen, I am officially running for president of the United States, and we are going to make our country great again. That is the same message you'll hear tonight, nine years later in the final MAGA rally.

We've got some Trump super fans in this audience, some people that have voted the first day of voting. What are you going to do? Because this story comes to an end. This story ends tomorrow, and a new story will be born.

And you'll never get this time back. The three MAGA rallies today are the last ones ever. You will never get it back. It will be history. It is not history yet, but you can make history. Do you know how people would give anything to be in a moment to make history? You can make history by how hard you work this next day. That's it. I got one day left. I've been pleading with you guys to go to work all year. I'm asking for one day of the hardest you've ever worked to find every human being possible to get them to vote.

So our team's been using this app. And again, I'm careful with these betting markets, but this is the one you guys got to look at. It's called Kalshi. K-A-L-S-H-I. It's the first legal exchange where you can trade and bet on any event. For the first time in 100 years, they got approval to list markets to trade on the outcome of the upcoming election, making it legal to trade on the U.S. presidential election and see who's going to win, Trump or Kamala. They have markets on who will win each election, who will win swing states. They also have markets on inflation interest rates, who will win swing states.

will the government shut down and more. What's really cool on this platform is you can trade on your opinions to make money or hedge risks that may impact you. Go to Kalshi.com slash Kirk, K-A-L-S-H-I.com slash Kirk. Additionally, you can check market odds, which come from thousands of people trading. These odds can be highly predictive, which is why these markets are referred to as prediction markets. Go to K-A-L-S-H-I.com slash Kirk. That is K-A-L-S-H-I.com slash Kirk.

Joining us now is Mark Halperin. Check out his wonderful program, Two-Way TV. That is Two-Way TV. Mark, is there a website associated with that?

There is. It's twoway.tv. Got it. Or you go on YouTube and search for two-way. It's been a go-to destination for me and for our team. They kind of got a pulse of what is happening there. So, Mark, you said something very interesting recently. You said you actually don't think this race is going to be close. It's either going to be Kamala decisively or Trump decisively. Is that correct? I'm not sure, but that's my base case. I think either female voters will swarm to the polls.

Something you flagged by saying, you know, men got to turn out. And if they swarmed the polls where they're 55 percent of the electorate and they vote decisively for Kamala Harris, I think she'll I think she would win big. And I think that would be uniform across at least five and maybe as many as six or maybe even seven of the battleground states.

But I think it's more likely that if it's a big win, it's Donald Trump's big win. At this point, I don't think she's got a good chance. I don't say no chance, but I think she had a good chance to win any of the four Sunbelt states. And so for her to win big, it's going to mean winning big in the three Great Lakes states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If it's really big, maybe those sunbed states come back into play. But the reason I continue to think President Trump has a better chance to win is I see multiple paths for him and I see it more likely that he gets that big win than that she does. But as I said, if she has a chance to win, I think it would be because women give her an unexpectedly large win, both in the popular vote and the Electoral College. And look, I want to be very clear and humble the audience a little bit to try to get some urgency. Mark Kamala.

allies are feeling more confident this week than last week. Is that correct? Oh, night and day. Last week, it was hard to find folks who gave her much of a chance. It's not clear what's caused their increased confidence, except they are winning. Not not every day, but for the last week, they've won what political professionals call the information flow.

That's I think, and some people could compare that to vibes and they certainly have an advantage in information flow because the dominant media is on their side, but they are much more confident than they were. But it's hard to get them to give actual data. They trotted out David Plouffe, who's greatly respected by people in politics and media to say that the undecided voters are breaking towards Kamala Harris. In part, they claimed

because of Madison Square Garden. I think there should be data to back that up. It's kind of a bold assertion. But I think partly because her events are really good now, and President Trump has had some bad events, and partly because David Plouffe came out with his credibility and said things are breaking their way, they are much more confident. But again, not data-driven as far as I can tell, but simply vibes-driven. So, Mark, you've been doing this for a long time. Tony Fabrizio, who is Donald Trump's pollster,

famously says presidential races move glacially, that it is very slow and not as abrupt. That could be right. We're in a new era where everyone has a supercomputer in your right hand pocket. It's not 2004 anymore. In your experience, can the last week, especially when you have a candidate that is so defined already as Donald Trump,

Can a not great week really be that determinative? Does your experience tell you that the last week is actually pretty important? It is in a race that the polls suggest is close. And remember, even on the Trump side, the most optimistic people on the Trump side, as you well know, maybe some of them think he could win these states, some of these states by five points. But they're more talking about wins by two points, which, again, in our 50-50 nation would be akin to a landslide.

But why the end matters, it's like when I played high school basketball and one important game, I made a turnover and I missed a shot in the fourth quarter. And my coach singled me out for special criticism. And I pointed out that my teammates had made mistakes throughout the game. And he said, mistakes in the fourth quarter matter more because there's no time to make up for them. Hmm.

And what you've seen in the last week is Donald Trump, look, I think the garbage truck thing and the press conference and then the story he told, I think that was obviously a great moment. There are three things happening now for both campaigns.

convincing undecided voters. And I think people who say there aren't any undecided voters left haven't watched my platform because we talked every day to people who are still undecided. Undecided can be who to vote, who to vote for, but it can also be whether to vote. That's right. So undecided voters. Then there's getting your people who are for you to the polls because it could rain or they could have a bad day at work or the subway could be closed.

And then there's the sort of seamier thing, which is voter suppression to try to keep people from voting. So...

So if the race is a blowout, does the last week matter? No. But just like if I missed a shot and turned the ball over and we were up 20 points, my coach wouldn't care. But in a close game, close contest. Yeah. The last week matters like the fourth quarter matters. And and both these campaigns know that mistakes now could be a big deal. That's why a lot of people in Trump world freaked out yesterday when in his first event of the day that I happen to be covering in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, he

Probably the worst Trump event I've ever been to in terms of his performance. And people said, we can't, you can't, Mr. President, you can't go through the rest of the day with that level of performance. It makes a difference. And she's doing well. Her events are quite good now. And it could be literally the information flow in this last week could make her president of the United States that if it is close and if I'm right, that information flow matters.

I think it does. Yeah, and again, you've got to run through the tape. That's what everyone says, and you've got to run through the tape. I mean, I sent out a cockiness tweet about a week and a half ago where I said, cockiness is cancer, and there were some people just kind of in the orbit that guaranteed a victory mark. Guaranteed.

I'm sure you heard that kind of language. Yeah. Yeah. Well, look, every campaign deals with this. It's a balance between not being cocky, making sure no one gets complacent. They keep giving you money. They keep volunteering. They keep door knocking.

But you also want the bandwagon effect. And I think one of the things that the Harris people have done brilliantly, because again, the top level people there are very experienced in political communication, is they went the whole campaign, the first hundred or so days saying, we're the underdog, we're the underdog, to keep the money coming in, to keep people with their guard up, to keep the volunteers volunteering. But I think they changed right around the time campaigns normally do with a week to go. And they had Madison Square Garden to key off of.

And they had and they had heard that the enthusiasm of her events, not just large events, but enthusiastic celebrities showing up performing well. You had some missteps by President Trump, including yesterday. And so they're able to switch from underdog, underdog, underdog to.

bandwagon be with the winner turn out vote for us make it happen and i think they probably plan to execute that the entire way because that's kind of the textbook thing to do but you're right that some people in president trump's orbit have been on we've got this locked for longer than most campaigns would that's partly the the the fact that the data that people in trump world have is quite quite positive there's reasons looking at the internal data to be bullish but it's also kind of

Kind of a cultural, anthropological difference between the two parties. Republicans just tend to beat their chests more and Democrats tend to tend to worry a bit more. So as we kind of get to a close here, the states that it seems the Democrats are making more of a push for North Carolina than otherwise would believe. But you're not as bullish on that chance. Is that fair to say? Well, I think they're making a push on North Carolina for three reasons. Number one,

Georgia and Arizona, according to most of my sources in both parties, are not going to happen for her. And if she doesn't make a play for one of the three large Sunbelt states, she's got exactly one path to exactly 270 electoral votes, and she has enough money and time to play there. So just to have another option, number one. Number two, she's always thought herself, the vice president, that that was her best of the Sunbelt states. And so I think she's got her own sort of personal theory of the case there. And number three is...

The governor's race there is going to be such a mismatch that there's reasons to think that perhaps between that and some of the changing demographics of the state, maybe they could win it. But I think all analysis of this race starts with the questions you have to answer. Do you think she can win either North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona or more than one of them? Most of my sources don't believe that in either party. And that means she's back to having one path. But

There's only so many times in the last week you can go over and over again to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. So doing some time in North Carolina and seeing if there's a way to win it. Because what you don't want, again, is to leave yourself literally no margin of error. If you think, as most of my sources do, she's going to be shut out of the three big Sunbelt states.

That means Donald Trump needs to go one for three in the Rust Belt and she needs to go three for three. And going three for three is a lot harder than going one for three. So we literally have hours left of this election and it's all about turnout. Are the Democrats happy with their early vote advantage that they've built in Pennsylvania or other states? Are they confident in the blue wall? They can't be happy with it. The Trump campaign just put out a memo.

laying out the stats. And I said early in the early vote that if the early, early vote held up through the late, early vote, there's no way she could win. It's gotten a little bit better for them in some of the states, but it's still very daunting. It means that their turnout operation, which as you well know,

I and others have said for a long time, her turnout operation is really well funded. It's really vast. It's being run by the campaign. It's being headed by the chair of the campaign who grew up in politics as a field organizer. And your side has been run by Elon Musk and by you and other people coordinating legally with the campaign. But not not that started later, not as big and trying to turn out low propensity voters.

as opposed to high propensity voters. So that conventional wisdom that their turnout operation was superior and would carry her to victory in a close race is now being brought into sharp relief and question because how can you say that a turnout operation which is underperformed by any measure

in early vote is on election day, suddenly going to change the behavior of, of, of democratic voters. We have a minute remaining. And again, I'm not doing hopium stuff. I, I, every day I try to find ways that we can lose. I'm, I'm unique in the, some of the Trump space in that way. That's a good attitude. I want to try to check my premise though. I find it hard to believe the Democrats are going to have a blue tsunami on election day. It just hasn't been their voters behavior. Um,

What is your likelihood of that? And do they need that? They do need it. I mean, they need it. I think that that your side overperformed in early voting. So maybe their side will overperform in an election day. Maybe maybe women are just ready to go to the polls as an act of communal defiance.

Maybe. And maybe, maybe the early vote, because again, you don't have perfect transparency in the early vote, right? You don't know who had people actually voted for. The campaigns have analytics, overlay the publicly available data, consumer data, etc. So they have good guesses about how people have voted. But it's possible that people who profile as

likely votes for Trump, particularly on the female side, are in fact voting for Kamala Harris. So that's possible. Their lead in the early vote in the states they're leading, which is five of the seven, may be bigger than we think. So they wouldn't need to do as well on election day as we currently believe they'd need to.

That's the best I can do for them. I think that because the press doesn't want to be dire about her chances, has not really delved into just how bad these are. The big tell...

The big tell was Jim Messina, who was Obama's campaign manager and a huge booster of Kamala Harris and kind of Pollyannish. He said he said on MSNBC, this is really bad. Yeah, no, that's right. Yeah. Look, I don't want to get too. That's the biggest tell of the whole campaign. I totally agree. I don't want to get too high on supply. However, it is fairly analytical to say if Trump voters have record turnout tomorrow.

It's going to be hard for Kamala to overcome that. Mark, we're out of time. Do you agree with that? Good to see you, man. I agree. Math is math. Twoway.tv. Excellent, Mark. Thanks so much.

Hey, everybody. Charlie Kirk here as we gear up for another important election year. Remember that we vote every day with our dollar. One of the best ways to support America is by buying from local farms and ranches. Good Ranchers makes this easy by delivering 100 percent American meat to your door. When you shop with Good Ranchers, you're not just getting the best meat for your family, but also supporting American farmers and ranchers.

This year, instead of buying imported meat, cast your vote for American agriculture and local economy. I've used Good Rancher's meat for quite some time, and they never disappoint. Whatever your choice of protein, you'll be pleased if you cast a vote for Good Rancher's. Use code Kirk for $25 off your order and your choice of free chicken breasts, ground beef, bacon, or wild-caught salmon for a year. It's time to make a stand. Vote for American meat with Good Rancher's. Your purchase helps keep American farms alive.

and ensures you get the highest quality meat for your family. I love Good Ranchers. You should check it out right now at goodranchers.com. Use promo code Kirk. That is goodranchers.com. Check it out right now. Promo code Kirk.

Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. I want to read some of these emails here of people. If you are voting tomorrow, I want to hear about it. Freedom at charliekirk.com. Rita says, Charlie, I'm voting tomorrow. I'm bringing five people with me. We're going out to breakfast afterwards. New Trump voters. Charlie, I love your show. I'm a 62-year-old mother. Here are all my nine new voters.

Christina, Andy, Joshua, Jessica, Alyssa, Claudio, Christina, Zachary, Jennifer. Boom! That is exactly how we win, Laurie. You name them by name and you bring them out to the polls.

Charlie, for nine years, we have been struggling. Tomorrow, we await a huge victory. I've brought 20 people to the polls. Going to do even more. I want to hear from you guys. I want to hear your feedback, what you are seeing, what you are hearing. Freedom at CharlieKirk.com. That is Freedom at CharlieKirk.com. And, you know, someone says, Charlie, Mark Halperin totally depressed me. Hold on a second. There was no depressing at the end. You guys got to listen to the end.

The end, he said, if we show up, we win. Math is math, guys. You just can't live in your own hopium universe. There's some things that are going good for us, some things that aren't. But if we show up, we win. Do the work. We're getting thousands of emails in, freedom at charliekirk.com, right here. Charlie, the entire street is driving down together to go vote. Let's see what state they are in. Oh, in Alabama. Well, that's good. Run up the score in Alabama. Very good for you. Charlie, I've made thousands of calls for Trump Force 47.

And we are using the Democrats from four years ago. We are going to win this thing. Okay, we'll see. We'll see. Look, guys, it is a pure turnout game, which means you must increase the volume. You must increase the Richter scale. Right now, by the way, my wife, Erica, she was up late till about 11 p.m. on her computer. She was texting 600 people in Arizona. Have you voted? Have you voted? Have you voted? Have you voted? 600 people. 600 people.

You guys can do that too. Relentlessly asking the question, have you voted? And by the way, there was an Amazon delivery driver. By the way, if you want to know why we're going to lose, I'll tell you why we're going to lose. There was an Amazon delivery driver last night.

She recognized me. Oh, my goodness. I love you on TikTok. I said, oh, great. Have you voted? She said, well, I got an early ballot. I don't really know what to do with it. Is it too late? Complete. It was not planned to vote. She had an early ballot. Then I walked her through it all. She's like, well, do I put it in the mail? I said, no, too late in Arizona. You have to drop it off. We got it all sorted out. Another young lady who was serving us dinner back on Friday told the story yesterday. She's like, well, how do I vote?

unregistered not going to vote too late in arizona i i gotta tell you guys we might have won the support and we lose the vote right here theresa charlie my husband and i are voting in pennsylvania tomorrow we're taking our two sons my daughter and her husband we're going to go vote in the county in pennsylvania and their first time voting girlfriends are going to vote also that's eight of us god bless you theresa let's give it up for theresa that right there is how we're going to win pennsylvania right there too big to rig we need a surge beyond measurement melissa says

Charlie, I'm going tomorrow morning. I'll be bringing three of my neighbors with me. All elderly, very much suffering in these times. God bless you, Marissa. Cindy says, Charlie, just want to let you know, a lot of women I know are not voting for Kamala Harris just because they're a woman does not mean they're voting for Kamala. I hear a lot of that, by the way. I hear a lot of that. It's going to come down to the wire here. We're going to be streaming for three full hours here. Tonight we'll be streaming the last ever MAGA rally. We'll be hosting it. And secondly, tomorrow night,

Is judgment day. We're going to be streaming for nearly 12 hours straight. So make a plan to watch us. We have the best political analysis of any program out there. We know the counties. We know the nooks. We know the crannies. We know the tricks. We know the voodoo. We know the hocus pocus. We have the best team out there. We have Blake. We have Jack. We have Tyler. Because we're actually working in these neighborhoods.

This is probably the most important tape of the weekend. This is Obama's, one of his whisperers, Jim Messina, telling you that they might lose because of the work we've done. Play cut 34. Okay, what's their biggest concern right now if you're the Harris team?

Well, look, I think it's a couple of things. The early vote numbers are a little scary. And you and I have been texting back and forth. Republicans didn't do what they did last time. Last time, Trump said don't early vote. And so they didn't. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers when the early vote come in. It's going to look a little bit different than 2020. And that's scary.

That's scary. If you plan to vote tomorrow, email me, freedom at charliekirk.com, and brag to me. I'll read the emails on air of new voters you are bringing into the wrinkle. Go nuts, everybody. Now is the time to do stuff you've never done before. Make history. Joining us now is a very smart man and a great advocate.

Analyst of the 2024 election, amongst other things, Ryan James Gerduski. Ryan, welcome to the program. Ryan, this weekend, the alleged gold standard of Midwestern polling, Ann Seltzer came out with her legendary Saturday evening poll.

The audience might not know much about this unless they obsess over Twitter, but the media has picked up on this rather heavily, that the Des Moines Register poll, they commissioned her to do this the Saturday before the election, and she sometimes picks up trends that other people are missing. In 2020, to her credit, she picked up that Trump was stronger in the Midwest than anyone was detecting, and turns out she was right. Well, she shocked the world on Saturday evening where she said that Kamala Harris is up 3%.

Now, mind you, in order for her to be right, every human being, both internal and external polling in the Kamala Harris campaign, Trump campaign, public polling, tracking NRFC, DCCC is wrong. So it's basically Ann Seltzer versus the world. What's going on here, Ryan?

So I looked at the poll and the crosshairs were provided in the Des Moines Register. And the big shift that she has, the reason how she got from an R plus eight state, which is what it was in 2020, to a D plus three state, that 11 point shift is because of seniors. Now, Seltzer keeps bringing up its senior women, look at all these senior women.

But her numbers actually show it's senior men. She said that senior men are breaking dead even between Harris and Trump. I think it was a two-point difference, which is completely insignificant in polling. And senior women went from being slightly pro-Trump to being –

the most democratic group in the entire state. It was more democratic than young people, more democratic than my non-white voters overall. Senior women, women over 65 who have voted, you know, 50-50, let's say, in the past two elections, and senior men who had voted overwhelmingly Republican were now 50-50 voters. When this was brought up to her with the Mark Halpern show, she

She didn't know what R's or D's stood for in my tweets, which I find confusing. But the fact is that she, I think her problem, like I think a lot of pollsters' problems are, and Nate Cohen from the New York Times said much of the same thing, that there is a response bias among seniors. I've been writing about this all year long. This was true in 2016. This was true in 2020. I don't believe that.

that Kamala Harris is winning seniors. Maybe I'll be wrong and maybe Ann Seltzer will be right. I don't think so. And here's why.

When they sit there and one, Nate Cohen said there's a 16 point difference between white Republicans, white Democrats in far as response rate goes and wanting to answer the phone. In 2016, they had Biden winning seniors by 10. He lost them by four. That's while COVID was happening and seniors were under an immense threat, honestly, of over being over 65 with this disease running around. And Trump still managed to win them. He won them by nine against Hillary.

I don't think that there's this big shift because how do we get more seniors? It's when people age. That's the, basically we have no immigrants who are seniors. Very, very few. It's just the aging process. People under 65 who were like 64, 63, 62 last election are more Republican than people who were 65 then.

So the newest group of seniors voted more Republican than the current group of seniors in the last election. I have a very hard time believing that every one of them just changed their mind and are witnessing a seven, eight point switch. The other problem with Seltzer's poll, in my opinion, was there is a three point movement among independents.

So how do you get an 11 point movement overall when there's just a three point movement among independents? It's that she's saying Republican white seniors are the ones who are moving more Democratic. They find that very, very hard to believe. Is there any data anywhere, Ryan, across the country that shows this trend?

No. I mean, there's plenty of polls that sit there and say Kamala's winning seniors, although ironically they're saying they're winning seniors by less than Biden did. The Marist poll came out today and said Harris is winning baby boomers by 11 points. I don't find that credible. I don't think that she's doing double digits better, almost 15 points better among seniors than Biden did. It's just, it's not, it's not this fascinating smell test. And this was the group that,

Seniors, especially non-college educated, but even college educated seniors were the group that pollsters missed in 2016. And they're the group that pollsters missed in 2020. Why do they miss? Is it a response bias? Is it because Republican seniors? Yes. Charlie, if you ever met a person who watches Rachel Maddow religiously, they cannot wait to tell you how much they hate Donald Trump. It's what they think about. They're calling pollsters and saying, please hear me out and hear how much I hate Donald Trump.

So anecdotally, I know plenty of conservative seniors who don't like to talk about politics. It's just not their thing. But they're conservative. They vote Republican. I don't know hardly any liberal seniors who don't want to tell you immediately upon meeting you that they hate Donald Trump.

Hey, everybody. Charlie Kirk here. What an unbelievable start to 2024. We had last month saving babies with pre-born by providing ultrasounds. And we're doing again this year what we did last year. We're going to stand for life because remaining silent in the face of the most radically pro-death administration is not an option. As Sir Edmund Burke said, the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. And we're not going to do nothing.

Your gift to pre-born will give a girl the truth about what's happening in her body so that she can make the right choice. $280 can save 10 babies. $28 a month can save a baby a month all year long. And a $15,000 gift will provide a complete ultrasound machine that will save thousands of babies for years and years to come. And will also save moms from a lifetime of pain and regret.

Call 833-850-2229. That's 833-850-2229. Or click on the pre-born banner at charliekirk.com. That is charliekirk.com and click on the pre-born banner. Also save moms from a lifetime of pain and regret. I'm a donor to this organization. They're terrific. Go to charliekirk.com. Click on the pre-born banner.

The other counterargument, though, I'd like to play devil's advocate. Did Ann pick up anything else in this poll that we should be worried about that could be extrapolated? And what was the data set? Some people say it was a D plus three data set. Is that right? I don't know the data set because it wasn't released. I heard between D plus three or D plus four. And it's an R plus six state now. So.

Yeah, it could be a nine, 10 point misallocation right there. There were two other polls that followed it that had Trump up, I think, eight and 11 in both polls. That was the only thing. It's weird because she said among young voters, voters under 30, Harris had like a three point advantage. And seniors were senior women were the most left wing group in the entire state.

It's not the group that moves about abortion. Oh, and also I think the other issue that they found were that democracy was a bigger issue than the economy. That sounds to me like – and that's the same poll that Maris found, by the way, too, that democracy was a bigger issue than the economy. I think you found a lot of liberals. And also she doesn't look at a lot of partisan breakdown when she's doing these sample sizes. Yeah.

So listen, she's been right a lot in the past. If she wins, if Harris wins Iowa, egg on my face, I got it all wrong. If it was real data, though, Harris would have sent Governor Walz, who is literally the governor of the neighboring state, to visit their walls. That's what I tweeted. I don't think they've been running ads. No, that's what I tweeted. I said if they would have detected any signs of life, they would have sent Mr. Walz through a tour of Waterloo, Ames, and Davenport, right? Let's see what you got here, man.

But we have other public polling that shows that this is wrong. So it does beg the question, Ryan, was this information warfare? Because J.B. Pritzker got the—well, hold on. Hear me out. J.B. Pritzker got a leak ahead of time. I got tipped off 12 hours ahead of time. So I woke up. We had seven Super Chase events. We were traveling over Arizona. And I got called from a good friend who's very well-tied in. He said, hey, the Seltzer poll is going to show Donald Trump down two or three points.

in Iowa. I said, you're full of BS. He's like, I wouldn't be calling you if it wasn't that. I called the Trump campaign and they're like, Charlie, we find this really hard to believe. I'm like, look, the source is the source. My guy's tipped off. So 12 hours ahead of time, we knew this. By the way, other reporters had it the night before. J.B. Pritzker is bragging about it at some sort of Chicago fundraiser. Is this information warfare, Ryan? Again, feel free to disagree, but there are some elements that beg the question.

Right. So I heard it. I heard it the night before, too, from somebody who was at that Chicago fundraiser for Pritzker was raving about it. And I said, you have to be wrong. You must be just lying. This can't be true. Right.

Did he get it from the Des Moines Register or from Ann Seltzer? I want to believe that she did not at the age of 70 decided, hey, let me throw my whole credibility away on probably maybe my last presidential cycle. I don't know. Or did the Des Moines Register have a reporter who was like, hey, this is great. Let me call. Let me get an in because –

Reporters do this all the time. They offer information and trade information to get in close with politicians and their political teams. It's not uncommon. I don't know. I don't want to believe that because I've spoken to Anne once before. She was very lovely. She is a respectable person. She's got a great career. She doesn't always get it right. In fact, in primary, she usually gets it wrong. She got it wrong in 2020, 2012, 2016 primaries. And obviously in the 2008 election, she was off by almost double digits.

I don't want to believe that she decided to ruin her whole legacy. Maybe she'll be right, but I think that may be something from the Demonic Fantasy. I mean, but I just – I can't – I mean, I don't want to say to her, why didn't she spike it? I mean, this is such a big gamble. It is her versus everybody else. There is not a – by the way –

The Nebraska polling doesn't show this. Minnesota shows a tight race. Every neighboring state doesn't show this. So if there was something going on with like rural Midwestern white women, we would pick it up in Nebraska or in Minnesota, right? Minnesota would be a 17-point polling delta. It's within five, six points. Am I wrong, Ryan, when I'm saying this?

So this is what someone brought up to me, and I think that's a good point. Is it because – is Iowa more of a prairie state now or a Midwestern state?

So if so, what it would show is that Kansas is in single digits. It would show that Nebraska is in single digits. It wouldn't show necessarily that Ohio is in single digits. It would. So that's like the argument. If it's a very nuanced, weird argument. The polls said Mary Meeks Miller or Marianne Meeks Miller, the Congress Republican 17 down like down 17 points.

If that were true, it would be like ground zero where they were like, be absolutely. We're going to pick this seat up. I find that hard to believe as well because the D triple C hasn't acted in that manner. Um,

And that's the that's nothing else is correlating with that. That's why I sat there and think that and also registration numbers are through the roof where I think in every county Republicans added on while Democrats shrank. I don't know. I mean, they have no federal representation. They have no they've won, I think, statewide elect. And that's it. It would be like if there was a shock pull out of Rhode Island or Connecticut showing a Republican win there.

we would be like, oh, that's awesome. I don't believe it, but that's awesome if it's true. If Iowa's true, that's terrible. I don't believe it, but it'd be terrible if it was true. I don't know. Ryan, you know the Pennsylvania news quite well. Walk us through the status of where we are, Pennsylvania early voting and what needs to happen tomorrow. So right now, Republicans make up just shy of 34% of all the early votes in Pennsylvania. Those are absentee ballots that have been submitted. Now, I want to say,

I want to make something very clear. Just because I say Republicans or Democrats, it doesn't mean that's how they voted. It just means that that's the party that they're registered under. Democrats are just shy of a million absentee ballot results handed in. I think Republicans are like 568 or something like that. Democrats should have about 420,000 absentee ballot lead votes.

over Republicans. That is significantly lower than in 2020. And I think it's pretty significantly lower or just on par with 2022, actually. Republicans are just shy of overall their 2020 number. An interesting thing, and my message is to you, Charlie, when we were chatting, Republicans have exceeded their 2020 turnout levels in almost every Western county in PA, almost every Northeastern county in PA, Southeast PA, the

Philadelphia, Erie, and Pittsburgh is where they're behind, but so are Democrats. Where Democrats are exceeding their average overall turnout, where they're getting the closest to their 2020 numbers, are rural, super Republican counties that Trump won by huge numbers. I'm talking Potter, Tioga, Adams County. These are counties that Trump won with 66 to 70, close to 80%.

The only way Trump gets those county numbers is that a lot of ancestral Democrats, people who are registered Democrat but vote Republican, cross over and vote for Trump. That's where the strongest numbers are.

Part of me thinks, is there something going on right now where we're seeing very conservative Republicans voting in very large levels, but we're also seeing crossover Democrats voting in very high levels? We obviously won't know the answer to Election Day, but it's a very interesting data set. What has to happen right now on Election Day, Democrats have eaten about 34% of their high-cropensity voters. That means they're already banked. They still have two-thirds left.

Republicans haven't even had a fifth of their very high propensity voters out. So they have a lot more bullets in the chamber as far as new voters come out.

What needs to happen is the new Republicans, low propensity Republicans need to show up in mass and blow it out of the water. The good thing going for Republicans right now is that Philadelphia is only 43% of where it was in 2020. For every one vote that they don't get out of Philadelphia, they would need to have two or three voters show up because of how the demographics are, how their voting trends are in the collar counties, in the white college educated suburban counties. That

And that becomes very hard as that number grows, especially if the rules blow through 2020 numbers and other places don't get there. So so let's let's just kind of educate the audience. If we let's say if I tell you five million people vote tomorrow in Pennsylvania, just turn out numbers by 6 p.m. Eastern. Does that make you feel good for Trump's chances or not so good? It depends if they're in Philadelphia or not. I mean, that's really where I mean, that's a good answer. Yeah.

Yeah, if we wake up tomorrow and Philadelphia has lines 16 blocks long, well, then that's a very big problem. I will say it is very interesting that the celebrities that Kamala Harris has going to Philadelphia are Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey. Those are not voters. Those are not celebrities that appeal to, let's say, black male voters. Those are celebrities that appeal to white female voters. Believe it or not, Oprah's audience is very, very white.

That's it. They're like go to they go to Montgomery County, Chester County, Delaware County. That's, I think, where she's sitting there and landing at the very, very end. And I think that's where she's sitting there and trying to get the appeal. Black and minority turnout is down nationwide right now. It's down in Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Minnesota, Nevada. It is down in Philadelphia, California.

If they decide to all show up tomorrow, it will be a game-changing election. I would probably expect Kamala Harris to be our 47th president. They tend to be early voters, though. So it's about Republicans actually showing up and waiting in line, regardless if it's four or six hours. And listen, I called my old realtor who lives in Pennsylvania. I called an ex-girlfriend. I called literally every person I knew who lived in Pennsylvania. And I said, make sure you're voting. And who are you bringing to the polls? My old roommate from when I was 21, I called.

Instead, is your dad voting? Like every single solitary person, if you can do it, if you can call the person who you know you can't rely on to bring an extra meal for dinner or at a potluck dinner, make sure they're voting. It's the

unreliables that need to go out because the votes are there. One of the most important things that most people don't know last year, when the governor Josh Shapiro did an automatic voter registration enrollment for people where they have the driver's license renewed Republican enrollment spiked because there were 2.66 million non-college educated Americans in Pennsylvania who were not registered to vote at the time of the 2016 election. This is according to 538. Um,

A lot of them are registered now. It's about going to vote for the very first time ever. A lot of people are 50s and 60s. It can happen in Georgia. Forty five percent of all first time voters right now in Georgia are over the age of 50. I know three people in my personal life are over 60 first time voters. It can happen. Go do it. I want to just be clear, everybody. Seltzer could be right, but she'll definitely be right if we don't show up.

Ryan, thank you so much. Email us, freedom at charliecook.com. Thank you. Tell me your plan to vote and bring another person to vote. No sitting on the couch. Okay, joining us now is a great friend. I think I text him

500 times a day. We're in kind of a couple group chats together. It is Jeremy Carl. Jeremy, welcome back to the program. It's great to be on, Charlie. I've enjoyed texting back and forth, amazed how you can kind of keep all these balls in the air right now. Well, it's somewhat cathartic and also creates some urgency. Jeremy is the senior fellow at the Claremont Institute and author of the very important book, The Unprotected Class. Jeremy, where does the race stand right now? What needs to happen tomorrow for us to win?

Yeah, well, I mean, this is kind of a dumb cliche, but really we need to just turn out and vote. But that actually does mean something. That means that from what I can see in these various states, and we've gone back and forth on this, I feel very good about where we are coming into Election Day. If we perform in the way that we should perform, I think that we win this. So if the people show up who we would traditionally expect to show up, I think

I think that we win this. We're in a good position with early voting, certainly much, much better than we were in 2020. But we've got to ultimately get the ball over the goal line, and that'll really determine how this goes. Let's go state by state. So Arizona is off limits. Not allowed to talk about it. We're not allowed to think about it. Just I'm too close to it. And I'll talk about it once polls close. Nevada. What is going on in Nevada?

So in Nevada, we have most of the vote in at this point, and that is arguably the state. It's certainly one of the states, if it's not the state, that really looks

almost the best for us compared to maybe expectations before early voting started. Traditionally, the Democrats have always had a big firewall lead, particularly from Clark County, which is where Las Vegas is going in to the election day. We've made up a huge registration disadvantage in the state to the point that we're basically even now on voter registration.

and we're about 42,000 as of I think this morning votes ahead in terms of Republican ballots out there. We're gonna also have a very good election day in Nevada. And really at this point, the Democrats hopes their hinge on either a lot more mail than I think is probably gonna be out there from Clark County, or, and I think this will be kind of a general theme of these states, some unknown unknowns.

So if for some reason independent voters would grow a large portion of the Nevada electorate, maybe 30 percent or so, if they were to snap unexpectedly strongly against us, that might cost us. But but otherwise, I think we look really, really good in Nevada right now. So so let me ask you, the Nevada consensus is that the unions control that entire area in Clark County. Has

Has Donald Trump kind of used the union weaponry against them? No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, representing the muscular class. Is Nevada kind of ground zero for how we use the Democrat coalition and invert them? Well, I think it could be. And certainly, I think given the type of voters that we have in Nevada, fewer college educated voters, more working class voters, more service workers, the fact that we've made so much registration up in the last few years, I think does have something to do with the sort of appeal that

that Trump has. I do worry still a little bit about corruption in Nevada. You know, Vegas, you might be shocked to know, is not always the most upstanding place. And they do have a rule that ballots can arrive up to three days after the election is over. So

and still be counted. And the Nevada Supreme Court actually just came out and said, even if it doesn't have a postmark, it can be counted. That actually is a few percentage of votes. My hope is that we're going to have a bigger lead by then. So this will be irrelevant, but it is something to watch. And I think just the fundamentals in Nevada

are really strong. At the time in 2020, when the electorate shifted 3.4 points per set to the right, or excuse me, to the left, Nevada actually shifted slightly to the right. So we had a lot of them even going in. And I think Trump is really built on that momentum.

The last couple of years have been very tough on people economically. A lot of good folks have gotten into horrible debt just to survive. Some of you are paying 20 to 30 percent on your credit card debt and drowning in those monthly bills. If you own your own home, did you know that refinancing that home can help get you help right now? I can hear it now. But Charlie, I have a three and a half

percent rate and I can't refi. Don't be a slave to the rate. Talk to my good friends, Andrew Del Rey and Todd Avakian. Let them crunch the numbers for you and show you I've used them. They're amazing. I can't say enough good stuff about them. You can consolidate and pay off all your debt, lower your payments, save thousands in interest and possibly even pay your home off sooner.

Go to andrewandtodd.com. That's andrewandtodd.com. Fill out their form, and they'll give you a call, and you can review the math together and see if it works for you. Get relief at andrewandtodd.com today.

OK, so Nevada, let's put that to rest here. North Carolina, what is going on? North Carolina, the Democrats are pouring money into the state. It's a very diverse state. I was just there. The West is nothing like the East. The central is certainly nothing like this. You know, the southern part. I mean, you kind of have it is a it is North Carolina is a southern northern state.

And that in some ways you feel as if you are totally south of the Mason-Dixon line as you go west. But as you go east, you feel as if you're in Greenwich, Connecticut. What's going on in North Carolina? Yeah, that's well said. And I'm I actually grew up in North Carolina. So I have a little bit of insight there.

Again, I think when I talk about things look good compared to where they've been, we have our first ever lead, I believe, in the modern history of early voting in that GOP, I believe, has about a 1%, maybe even a little bit more advantage in terms of ballots that are out there right now. So that's great. Again, there's a lot of independence, so it's not definitive, but it is encouraging. I am a little bit worried that there's still a lot of

There's still a lot of kind of complications that we're dealing with from Hurricane Helene that hit Western North Carolina, of course, really hard. That is a very heavily Republican area. And when I've been looking at it, it still seems like turnout is lagging a little bit there. But, you know, the fact that we're going in with this lead and probably about 80 percent of the vote or 70 to 80 percent at least can't.

counted already for us to be in a ballot lead and expecting a good election day. I think that we are going to be in very good shape going in. Again, if we lose North Carolina, I don't think it's going to be because of anything we can see right now. It'll only be because something weird happened with independents or a group that we were counting on for election day turnout just doesn't turn out. But I think this was a state we won by about 1.2, 1.3 points.

last term. And I think we're actually going to build on that margin. And I just don't see that we're going to lose that one point three points in the environment, this environment that would turn it over to Harris. Georgia. So let's talk about Georgia. Georgia has early voting culture. Black turnout is down. What is going on in Georgia and Donald Trump's pathway to victory? Yeah. Again, you have a situation where

Black turnout is down about a percent. I think white turnout is up a half a percent or so or 1%. And you might look at that and say, well, that's not such a big deal. But you're talking about a race that was decided by fractions of a population.

percent in the last election. So if we just had partisan voting according to form, I think you would expect, again, Georgia, where again, we have probably 80% of the vote already in, you'd expect Georgia to at least narrowly go for us. We've had extremely strong turnout also in the rurals, particularly in North Georgia, much more so than normal. And we're kind of left with people who I think are

are pretty regular voters. You know, I'd much rather count on some of these very regular voters in the suburbs to show up on election day. You can't always count on the rurals to the level that we've gotten them. So I think, again, things look good for us. We'll know a lot about Georgia and North Carolina shortly after the polls close. They will announce their

They're a significant percentage, if not all of their mail balloting, which will be a significant percentage of the state. I think if we're up for that early count, we should feel absolutely fantastic about our chances. I think if they were even within a point or two, I'll feel okay. If we're down more than that, then that would be a sign for early concern.

So I want to play a piece of tape here, and I just want to say we're getting lots of emails, freedom at charliekirk.com. I want to hear from you. Also, if you live in the state of Iowa, can you guys email me, please, freedom at charliekirk.com? And it's actually because I'm post-checking the Seltzer poll, and I have nine emails here, Jeremy, of people saying, I don't know what she's talking about. All my neighbors used to vote for Biden, and now they're for Trump, and all my people are still for Trump. So I'm just kind of vibe-checking it, which is important, right? Because in order for that poll to be right, you'd have to have Obama-level enthusiasm.

because Obama won Iowa back in 2008, but he did not, I believe, in 2012. So I just want to vibe check some of this. Okay, let's play this here. I think it's very important. This is cut 34 of Jim Messina with Jen Psaki saying that it's scary. Something is very scary. This should be the number. This, by the way, this is the most hopeful piece of tape that I've seen in quite some time, everybody. Scary. Play cut 34. Okay, what's their biggest concern right now if you're the Harris team?

Well, look, I think it's a couple of things. The early vote numbers are a little scary. And you and I have been texting back and forth. Republicans didn't do what they did last time. Last time, Trump said, don't early vote. And so they didn't. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers. When the early vote come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020. And that's scary.

Jeremy, your take. Yeah, I think it's right. I mean, we're just in a much, much better situation across the country in early voting. And that's where you're seeing these things in North Carolina. I'm not allowed to talk about Arizona. So we'll talk about Nevada everywhere. No, Arizona. It's much more positive.

Yeah, we're seeing much more positive early voting. At the same time, we need to not be complacent because to some degree, right, you're just taking people who were general election voters and your election day voters and you're bringing them to be early voters. Now, that has a value because you still don't have to chase after those guys on election day. And so you can chase after other voters. So there is value in that, but it's not the same value as

Yeah, and I know you are. Truly bringing in a new voter who wouldn't have been there. But as best we can tell, we look at things called voter propensity, which is essentially how – for your voters, how often are these guys voting? So do you just have your high-propensity voters showing up, the guys who vote all the time, or do you have low-propensity voters, people who seldom or rarely vote? And I think, again –

Part of the basis for me being cautiously optimistic is that we are seeming to turn out not just our high propensity voters, but low propensity voters in these states. And at the same time, the Democrats seem to be struggling a little bit with that. I'm not worried about Iowa. We are not going to lose Iowa. I'm just going to say that right now. I mean, I'm not casting aspersions on Seltzer, but it's just not going to happen.

I would be surprised if Iowa, I'd be stunned and it would certainly be very negative if Iowa was even within five. I would not be surprised to see us win Iowa by 10, which has been a little bit more consistent with other polls. If you look at voter registration trends in Iowa, again, it's enormously favorable. We went from like a 40,000 voter registration advantage in 2020 to like 180,000 a day. And this is in a state of just a little more than 3 million people. So this is a really big,

big change. I just don't see this reversal of trend. I don't know how Seltzer came to this poll, but I'm not worried about it. Jeremy, so the equation that Blake, who's very smart on our show, and he's right, says if four out of four voters turn out and a lot of three out of fours, and we keep getting some low props in, we win. Is that correct? And who is doing better right now with low propensity voters? That's correct. And we see

seem to be doing better. And again, that's why I'm optimistic. And again, I'm not saying optimistic to be complacent. If anything, I feel like maybe the vibes are a little bit less good than they were a week ago, but the data still continues to be very good. So that gives me optimism. But

as best where we can tell, we can't tell in every state and some states you're modeling partisanship. So you don't know whether the voter is Republicans or Democrats, but in states where we do seem to know like Nevada, like North Carolina, we are turning out there's, there's another state I can't mention, but it's also the same sort of thing going on. You know, we're, we seem to be turning out more low prop voters than the Democrats. And that is,

Very, very encouraging, especially be turning them out early because it's hard to get these voters. Usually if they do vote at all, they tend to be maybe more last minute election day voters. So the fact that we're turning some of these guys out now early is really encouraging. And it's one of the reasons why in a state like Nevada, where in Clark County, they have the Democrats have a 6,000 vote.

voter advantage in sort of low and mid propensity registered voters. But they have just a few thousand more actual voters in that bucket who have voted at this point than we do, because we've been turning out our guys. And for the most part, they have not been turning out their low and mid propensity voters. So that's why it matters. And I think I think you guys are correct in how you're thinking about it. So, by the way, I just got an email for a text message from a low propensity voter that I registered to vote.

Charlie, great meeting you. I got my new license. What do I do? We helped get it all figured out. He just sent a picture, just went to church and voted. That is a low prop voter in Arizona banked. That is happening thousands of times a day thanks to our Turning Point Action Army, myself included. I chased the ballot of my Amazon driver last night. Big fan of ours, and we got that in. So, Jeremy, we need to turn out. That's needless to say. Let me ask you a difficult question, two and a half minutes remaining. If Kamala were to win, what needs to happen?

Well, if she wins legitimately, we would have to look really carefully at what we didn't do, the voters that we didn't turn out. I would expect at this point, if

if she were to win, we're turning out at our voters. So what it would have to be is that we really lost particularly a lot of more educated white voters in the suburbs. If those folks really move strongly toward Kamala, we would be in trouble. And I think, honestly, this is a natural GOP constituency. And so we should be really working. I still think even if we win this, we're not nearly where we should be

with these voters, given that the democratic party is consistently hostile to the interest of white Americans. So I think that there would be things there that I would look at. That would be probably the thing. And then also if women voters really turn against us, um,

because of the abortion question and other things. We're not going to obviously overlook any of our fundamental commitments, but we are going to have to think very carefully in that case about how we talk to them, how we reach these voters with the right sort of message that's going to bring them back to our side. So that's the sorts of things that I'll be looking at if we don't get the result we want on Tuesday. Jeremy Carl, thank you so much. Thank you.

Thanks so much, Charlie. Pleasure to be on. All right, everybody, let's wrap this up. We have a third hour coming up. By the way, tonight, the last MAGA rally, we'll be covering it live. So make yourself a nice cup of coffee. By the way, if you're going to sleep well tonight, I want to know how that's possible. I don't think any MAGA faithful is sleeping well tonight. I think there's going to be a lot of restless nights tonight, as it should be, by the way. If you're sleeping comfortable, you're way too cocky. If we will win, if, if, if, if, if we turn out in big numbers. For nine years, we've been in the trenches. For nine years, we've been...

laboring in these fields for nine years. Everybody, you have one day left, one day left to text everybody your phone. By the way, if you're like, oh, I'm worried about being annoying with Trump. That's it. This is done. You'll never have to advocate for Trump to somebody ever again. This is it. What a great opportunity. Lean into it. How awesome is that? Do it with gratitude and joy. You say, I get to advocate for this man that I believe that will save the country. And I believe that's exactly right.

So lean into that, everybody. Open up your phone right now and text 600 of your friends. Have you voted? Have you voted? Do you have a plan to vote? Have you voted? Have you voted? Have you voted? Go wear the MAGA hat right now into the grocery store. Talk to every single person imaginable.

Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. I want to hear from you, by the way. The Iowa faithful are coming into the email inbox. They say Iowa's going to be fine and oppose a bunch of BS. Okay, I hope that's right. Iowa better turn out in big numbers if that's true. But more importantly, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, let's make this surge. We sustain the surge and victory will emerge.

Hey, everybody. Charlie Kirk here. Four years of crushing interest rates, runaway inflation, and reckless government spending. And who's paying the price? You. You've got bills stacking up, debt collectors on your back, and you can barely put food on the table. Done With Debt is your way out. They've developed new aggressive strategies designed to get you out of debt permanently without bankruptcy and without loans. Done With Debt stands between you and your bill collectors. They go head-to-head with your creditors, getting balances reduced, interest rates slashed,

and penalties stopped. They create a plan designed to end your debt fast and put more cash in your pocket every month. And right now, Done With Debt is accepting new clients, but you need to act fast and some credit relief programs expire and you don't want to miss out. Before you even make another payment, visit donewithdebt.com or visit 888-322-1054 right now. Talk with one of the debt relief strategists for free. Go to donewithdebt.com. That is donewithdebt.com.

or call 888-322-1054 right now. Talk with one of your debt relief strategists for free, donewithdebt.com. That is donewithdebt.com. Joining us now is a great friend of mine and truly terrific person, Pastor James Cadice.

Pastor, welcome back to the program. Charlie, glad to be here with you, brother. So James, you and I have been texting for quite some time, and to your great credit, you have come out with great moral and biblical and theological clarity as to how Christians should view this election. Right now, there are millions of Christians that are sitting on the sideline considering not to vote or to vote for Kamala. How should Christians view their biblical duty these next 24 hours?

Well, this is a very remarkable place that we're in right now. And I'm going to come from a perspective that a lot of people might not necessarily take because an overwhelming majority of the church, especially in the United States of America, refrains from having a conversation regarding Bible prophecy and the things that are going to be happening in the last days.

And what we're hearing a lot of in the church right now is, well, Jesus is coming back any moment. The church is going to or the country is going to burn to the ground. It doesn't matter. So we might as well just run away and not vote, not participate. Not to mention the fact that Trump is kind of an unscrupulous guy. And although he might be the lesser of two evils, he's not the person that we want to vote for. And I want to make myself very, very clear.

I'm going to simply start by saying that I think that President Trump will go down as one of the greatest presidents we have ever had in U.S. history. I want to make myself clear in saying that, especially from the perspective of a man whose mom and dad were both born and raised in Egypt. I'm first generation born into this country, and I very clearly understand the dynamic that's going on in the Middle East.

all of the things that are happening. And if you study Bible prophecy and you know what the Bible says concerning the end times, we are seeing the manifestation of so many of those things beginning to formulate right now. And Jesus told us a parable. This parable is referred to or known as oftentimes the parable of the talents.

And the thing that's interesting about this parable is Jesus basically talked about three different guys. One guy who basically was given five talents, another who was given two, another who was given one. The two who were given five and the other one that was given two, they multiplied their efforts and received or made more talents. And God praised them and said, well done, good and faithful servants. And yet the one...

decided that he was going to bury his talent. Now, what's unique about this are two very specific variables. Number one, he tells his master in this story, I was fearful basically of you. This is in essence, the translation. And I know you're a man who reaps where you have not sown. And in essence, you're a hardened man. So I just basically decided that I was going to

bury this. And I think if you consider the response of Jesus, it was heavier. The response that Jesus told us this master had, it was, hey, listen, you lazy and slothful servant, you evil and slothful servant. And the thing that's interesting about this is to consider the fact that the

context that Jesus tells this parable in was one very powerful place. And that was the end of the world. He was sharing this parable in the end of the world. And what he was saying was, I've told you, I've given you talents and those talents, the valuable treasure that I've given you is knowledge of what is going to happen in the last days. And I don't want you taking that knowledge and burying it in the ground by saying, Maranatha, I can't wait until I fly. I can't wait until I fly and do nothing about it.

He wants us to realize that he could come at any moment. The rapture could happen at any moment, which is why we should be in school board meetings, which is why we should be voting, which is why we should certainly be voting for somebody like Trump rather than somebody like Kamala Harris, because Kamala Harris represents every evil and wicked thing that you can possibly imagine. And you can see manifestations of it in every corner. And it's very dark, but it's very important that we point this out.

I don't know about you, Charlie, but I don't want to be the guy who's caught burying my talent going, well, Lord, I knew you were going to come back and I was really scared. And so I just knew that the world was going to blow up anyway. Jesus would say, you are a wicked and you are a slothful servant. And you did not do with that knowledge. I have that knowledge. I know I'm able to understand the geopolitics of the world and I act on it. And that's what I'm doing. And based on that is where I make my decision. James, is it ever?

in the Bible say that you should allow evil to spread if you have an ability to stop it in the end times? Is that biblical? No, no way. As a matter of fact, we are given a mandate in the Bible. 2 Thessalonians 2, verse 3 says that the final Antichrist cannot even reveal himself until the church is removed from the earth, which means we're given a mandate. And the reason for that in 2 Thessalonians 2, verses 6 and 7 is that we are the restraining force, the church.

filled with the spirit of God are the restrainers that keep it from coming into fruition. The Bible even goes so far as to tell us a pattern of what totalitarian rule does and what it looks like in the end times. In Revelation chapter six, it talks about a white horse. It talks about a red horse.

a dark horse or a black horse and a pale horse. The white horse, a totalitarian ruler who comes in, who rules without a bow or an arrow. He convinces everybody about a revolution. And it's speaking, of course, of the final Antichrist, the last one. Then he brings in war. His totalitarian rule brings in war. And the result of war is economic failure or collapse. And it's funny because when he talks about the black

course, he says, do not touch the oil and the wine. That means there will be a ruling class that will remain intact when economic failure happens as a result of war. And then it brings us to the pale horse, which by the way, when Christians are gone, because they'll be raptured at this point, the end result of totalitarianism by the Antichrist during this time is the death of

of a quarter of the world's population. That is literally two and a half to three billion people. Imagine, imagine what that looks like when Christians aren't there. Right now, we see 100 million people dying in the last century as a result of totalitarian rule, communism and socialism. And that's with Christians here on this earth.

Imagine what happens when Christians are not. And that becomes a mandate from the Bible based on Bible prophecy that we are supposed to fight. Listen, I don't stand up and tell people to vote for Trump because I believe we're going to win the election. I do it because God commands me to do it. And if God shows us his grace and allows that to take place, then we stand and we say to God be the glory. Amen. So James, let's go through that.

So Donald Trump is a great president. And you and I both wish that we want the Republican Party to become more pro-life in the future. But we're one day out from the election. We're not going to fix that. So talk about the issues, the biblical principles of first, why a Christian cannot vote for Kamala Harris, why that is irreconcilable, and then make the case for Donald Trump through a biblical context. So start with Kamala Harris and the Democrats and then with Donald Trump.

Okay, Kamala Harris cannot be voted for because Kamala Harris hates the God of our fathers. And I think this is important because you might be watching me and you may not be a Christian. You may not even care about Christianity, and that's okay. God honors your free will, and of course, so do I. But the problem is this.

Freedom is a direct function of God intervening in our lives and providing it for us. Our founding fathers created the Constitution with a referendum that was predicated upon biblical principles. I mean, even right down to how it classified slaves.

There was a process that was involved. And it's funny because when you start looking at all of the 27 amendments that we have in the Constitution and specifically the first 10, which we know is the Bill of Rights, it was all predicated upon biblical ideas, the idea behind our freedom and what that freedom looks like. And if you think about it, what they're doing to Donald Trump right now, they violated his First Amendment rights, his definitely his fourth and fifth.

easily his Seventh Amendment, his Eighth Amendment rights. You think about the things that are going on. If they can do that, if Kamala's administration can do that to Donald Trump right now, imagine what they can do to you for experiencing freedom. And if Kamala gets voted in the office from day one, this is what's going to happen.

Day one, we will become a socialist country. Day one, and I promise you, this is going to happen. They are going to go after religious freedom even more than they ever have before. And the other thing that they're going to do is they're going to stack the Supreme Court. They are going to take away the Supreme Court's ability to rule based on the language of the Constitution. And rather, it's going to become an activist mechanism that is designed to destroy the very freedoms that the founding fathers chose to create within us.

And I think that this is very, very important. And this is the reason why they're coming after our Second Amendment rights, because our Second Amendment rights were created by the founding father to defend our First Amendment rights. And when you begin to think about all of these other things that settle around it, you know, an expansion of the Fifth Amendment based on what was written in the 14th Amendment regarding these protection rights that we have, it's remarkable. All of that goes away if Kamala Harris is voted into office, every last bit of it.

So, Pastor James, allow me to read this tweet here that was sent out by a pastor by the name of Pastor Ray Ortland. So Pastor Ray Ortland is a very well-known pastor that said this. Never Trump, this time Harris, always Jesus. How should we think about pastors who say such things like this?

If you go to that man's church, run the heck away from his church because what he just shared with you is brutally demonic. And one of the things I want to say very, very clearly here, and this involves just sharing a small little story of something that happened with me about four months ago. Maybe it was more than that. It was about six months ago when President Trump had announced his newly formed position with respect to abortion. And

One of the things that I did was I took to Instagram and even made a few YouTube videos. And let me just simply say this, erroneously said that I would not vote for somebody like President Trump, knowing that I had voted for him every single time and proudly voted for him and encouraged other people to vote for him. But I said I could not vote for him if he's taking this stand on abortion, especially as a father.

who has three children, a six-year-old, a three-year-old, and a two-year-old, all adopted by the grace of God, amazing children that I love. I hate abortion. But here's the thing that I learned very quickly when I came to that conclusion. You see, I was hoping to get other pastors to rally against me and maybe help to change President Trump's mind. But there's something that God showed me, and I was very convicted by it, which is why I'm taking the stand that I'm taking. And that's this. First and foremost, Kamala Harris hates life.

She is part of the community and the world of death. She is a neo-Malthusian, a completely angry and embittered and enraged individual who has a bloodlust for the life of children. How in the world can you trust somebody like Kamala Harris to take care of your life after watching what she did to this country over the last four years? And this is the conclusion that I came to when I started really thinking about this and doing some soul-searching.

Look at what President Trump did in the four years he was in office and look at the last four years. Let me take one step further when we talk about pro-life. Roe v. Wade was overturned. We thought no way it would be overturned. It was overturned because of the Supreme Court justices that was actually bought in by President Trump. And I want to make one more statement because this is really critical. It's important everybody know this.

When Roe v. Wade was overturned, the hardcore, death-loving, ridiculous Democratic left, the haters of life, went into a panic and went on their way to get out every kind of other abortive,

tool that they can. And we went from 900,000 babies being killed when Roe v. Wade was overturned to what will be 1.7 million babies dying by the end of this year because of what Kamala Harris did, because of what Joe Biden did. And we will see that number double because they have a love for death. And let me make this clear.

position very clear. How can you trust anybody to take care of your life when they hated you before you were even born? And I want to make one more statement. President Trump loves listening to godly men. He is open to listening to pastors. And I have a deep-rooted

personal love for a man like that who would give up absolutely everything to make this country better and also to understand that he's the only president that stood in the March for Life. He is the president that did more in the last four years for the unborn than any other president in U.S. history. And now all of a sudden we're going to get on this high horse and say we're not voting for him? That is a satanic ploy.

And I'm sorry, I just have to say, no, you don't need to apologize. Final issue here, James, is Israel. Donald Trump was very, very good on Israel, moved the embassy to Jerusalem, something I know is near and dear to your heart and your audience. Why should Donald Trump earn the support of Christians who care about the nation of Israel? One minute remaining.

I will just tell you, this is very, very important. You should do it because Donald Trump has historically lent out his support, even probably more so than any other president in U.S. history. Once again, he didn't talk. He brought it into action. He brought the U.S. embassy into Jerusalem. Listen, Yerushalayim has been the very place of the heart of every Jew that's out there, and he stood for

for the right for Jews to continue to live in their homeland without being disturbed. And I'm a man, listen, I can tell you this right now. I understand what they mean when they say, "Benshah berbar." Most of these people don't understand. You've got these college students walking around with their kafiyas around their neck

they have no idea what they represent they don't understand our culture our background they don't speak our language yet donald trump seems to understand it all and the work that he's done in israel has been remarkable and i am grateful to god almighty for what donald trump has done for israel and what i know he'll continue to do for israel which is why our nation will be blessed i will bless those that bless thee and i will curse those that curse thee is what god said concerning the nation of israel donald trump knows that because he's listening to pastors

And that's why he's blessing Israel so that the United States of America will be blessed. It's that simple. God bless you. Thank you. Let's get this message out to your whole audience. We'll get you this interview so that all of your millions of followers can see this. James, thank you so much. It's an honor. God bless you.

But you know what? That's their loss in your game. For the first time ever, you can get a standard classic MyPillow for wholesale prices only $14.88. But it gets better. For a limited time, they're offering their entire classic collection at wholesale prices. Get queen-size MyPillows for just $18.88. Upgrade to a king for only $1 more. Get the body pillows for $29.88 and multi-use MyPillows for only $9.88.

Go to MyPillow.com, use promo code Kirk, or call 800-875-0425 to take advantage of wholesale pricing for the first time ever. On top of that, receive free shipping on orders over $75. They've never been offered this low before. There are limited quantities at this price, so the limit is 10. Once they're gone, they are gone. Go to MyPillow.com, or call 800-875-0425. Use promo code Kirk to get the standard MyPillow for only $14.88, the lowest price ever. That is MyPillow.com, promo code Kirk.

Kirk. Joining us now is Mitchell Brown, Army veteran and also runs Signal CYGNAL. Mitchell, welcome to the program. Thanks for having me, Charlie. All right. So Mitchell, you're a Republican pollster and also a director of strategy at Signal. So Mitchell, let's open up just kind of with what you are seeing. What is the state of the race?

Yeah, so a little bit back on us. We're currently doing two states for the Trump campaign. We're tracking daily momentum in North Carolina and Pennsylvania for the team there. So I can talk about this kind of in two separate buckets here. For North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, there's no troubling signs for the Trump team looking like,

All three of those states are going to be around plus three for Trump in a day. Could hit plus five if turnout does hit what we're thinking it might in those three.

But then when we talk about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Pennsylvania, I've seen a little bit of a negative trend in the past week and a half or so. But in Wisconsin, Michigan, I've actually seen a big increase for Trump to where those are the two Rust Belt states I'm most confident in right now. OK, so let's what do you attribute the negative trend in Pennsylvania to be?

When you're looking at it, it's still the suburban white woman. When we go to that mainline Philadelphia suburbs there, we're seeing that bleeding a little worse than it was in 2020. And so Trump can, again, go run up the vote in western Pennsylvania and some of those areas that he needs to and still have that be offset if the performance is worse in, say, Bucks County or any of the other mainline suburb areas.

So what demographics specifically of women? Is it older, middle-aged? What demographic? So the best two indicators actually are one just economic. So wealthy women and white women are the two that are, again, trouncing us right now. Trump is going to do better with every single demographic group in this country this year except for the three Ws. White voters, women, and wealthy voters. And it's really amplified there in Pennsylvania. Women...

It's about the 45 plus range that are high income households, which again, for our indication, there is 125,000 and above is what we're classifying that as. That's the real sore spot. Why is it that upper middle class white women are so loyal to the Democrat party? What is that all about? Well,

Well, it's interesting for them when you don't have to worry about, again, the price of groceries. You don't double check when you have to go fill up your tank. Life is very easy for you. So you have to find something to be invested in. And the Democrats, again, have done a great job of just making Roe the only issue in saying that we're attacking women. These women don't have anything. They have the luxury of not having to care about anything else. So that's why you see this.

This is the opposite trend with lower income women and even younger women. We can talk about that in a second, just about voters under the age of 30 and how well Trump is doing with them. But when we go to Ohio and we go to Michigan and Wisconsin, where they don't have super affluent suburbs as they do in Pennsylvania, you could see there that when people have to deal with everyday issues, the abortion topic slips down in popularity or importance to them and the real things start to matter. So, yeah, let's dive deeper into that.

How is Donald Trump doing with voters under 30? So if you go back to 16 and you go back to 20, you look at what the actual split was. So the classification we have is 18 to 29. So Trump lost 18 to 29 voters by 31 points in 2016. By 27 in 2020, he's currently only down nine nationally in our polling. So it's going to be single digit split.

Yeah. So what do you attribute that to? Again, it's a tough place to be. I'm 30, so I'm just outside of that group. I'm a younger millennial. And same issues that I deal with here is the.

The future doesn't look too bright if you're an 18 to 29-year-old looking out there today. How are you ever going to purchase a home? How are you, again, going to compete in this labor marketplace when you're saddled with student loan debt because no one will stand up to the banks? Or, again, the open borders causing massive rates of inflation, and it's impacting the job market there. How did these young kids who've also been told for the past 10 years stay home?

if we break down just the men in this age group who've been told that everything about them is wrong for the past 10 years. That's what we're seeing now is that cultural kickback that, again, you guys have done a great job going out on the campuses, registering these people to vote. And you can see the shift in 2020,

Again, people were a lot more scared to go out and say this, especially on the college campuses. And you can see now that kids are willing to talk about the issues that matter to them. And they see their future and they see that another four years of this means another four years of not having to put the rest of their life on hold. So help me understand now turnout. Seems that is it correct that black turnout and Democrat based turnout in certain parts of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia is down. Is that correct? And therefore, what does that mean?

Yeah. So for Philadelphia and Atlanta, it is down a couple hundred thousand in both of those respectively. Now, again, it's it is a little hard to guess as to are those people still going to show up on Election Day and they just didn't happen to early vote.

We don't, again, don't really know there. In Wisconsin, that's the one why I'm so bullish on Wisconsin now is that's the true one that we've seen a complete reversal in early voting turnout. It's deep red areas, especially like Green Bay when Trump was there two weeks ago. That's where you need to run up the score there because obviously Milwaukee, we're going to have some Election Day stuff that comes in there that will be a little bit higher than what people are even predicting now.

It looks, though, like Pennsylvania. I would probably guess that that's going to level out a little bit. Georgia, that is just the true nature of it. There's a bunch of people that we've done in focus groups down there with black voters inside Atlanta. They're going to have a decreased turnout compared to 2020. That's going to stay the same way that we're seeing right now. So are we also now seeing increased rural Trump turnout in some of these states? So you kind of have an upper lower thing going on here.

Yeah, I think five of the seven major swing states, there is an increased rural vote to date compared to 2020. So Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona all have that ratio right now with urban vote down and rural vote up. And so what then if we were I want to go around the horn, though, but let me just ask you, if Kamala Harris were to win, what needs to happen? What in the next 24 hours needs to happen for Kamala Harris to become president?

There would need to be a massive push in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit and Atlanta. There is no other way. Again, I still don't even think the Atlanta one would help that much. But if I was the Harris campaign, again, I would have taken every resource out of every other state and blast it into Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, because if you don't outsize that election day turnout tomorrow, there really isn't a pathway. Do you see any indication that they are doing that?

You can see in Pennsylvania and I've tracked that in my data. They've done a good job in the past week and a half. That's why I think that that one is going to even out and turn out. My data is not reflecting that in Michigan and in Wisconsin. So what what does that look like? I mean, buses, you know, transportation. Is it the good old fashioned kind of Democrat machinery in Philadelphia? Is that right?

Yeah. And then again, I assume we're going to see a lot, a lot of instances where polling places are kept open later in those places that something happens. And so I, and any, anything for Philadelphia could happen. I was a poll observer in Milwaukee in 2020, and this is exactly what happened. Again, we kept the polls open two hours later. So I would expect a lot of that because if outside of the busing, having the food trucks, getting every single person they can,

out to vote in those two states, they don't have anything left to do. We've seen it. Pittsburgh in that western Pennsylvania area is already solidified so that they can't do anything. That's why they pulled all their media out of North Carolina and put it into Pennsylvania is they need an over turnout tomorrow there specifically. Now, it seems as if there is a increased

attention on the male-female divide this cycle. It seems like that gap is closing. Female turnout is actually down from where it was in 2020, despite all of the pandemonium here. And that could be best explained by the disappearance of the Dem Indy voter, that kind of Democrat Indy. Do you see that also in your data? Yeah, the only thing of note with that low female number is it still has to be for Trump the right

That's what we're seeing a little bit in Michigan. Wisconsin, that group is still actually out voting.

voting what they did in 20. In Pennsylvania, that's, again, another sign of why I'm a little worried is the decrease looks to be women in areas where we kind of do actually need them to show up. Now, when we're talking about the gender gap here, the real issue, if we have to narrow it down to men aged 35 to 50 that are white and educated,

Are so close to becoming 50 50 voters in this country that the gender gap is almost mattering less than what I talked about before being just the straight income gap. Yeah. And it just it's remarkable kind of as those two things are diverging. So let me what is your final data show? If you were to call the shot, what's going to happen tomorrow?

Yeah. So like I mentioned, I think Trump takes North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and then I'll go and say both Michigan and Wisconsin. I think Harris will take Pennsylvania. Wow. Right there with that number you're sitting at in the high 280s for Trump. I the only one I disagree. Michigan's a tough lift because they are as crooked as a three dollar bill in Detroit.

Wisconsin, I can tell you our internals that we just put out to the Trump campaign yesterday have it within a tenth of a point. Again, that doesn't give me confidence that those people are so crooked. They'll just discover another 30,000 ballots. However, Wisconsin is it's tougher for them to do that. Wisconsin is a much straighter shoot when it comes to how they do elections. How about Nevada?

Nevada's tough. If you're making me say it now, I think Harris takes it. Trump would have to win Arizona by four points.

for Nevada to truly be his. And again, what I'm seeing is if it's a great election day turnout, Trump can win Arizona by four to five. I still have him plus three, plus three and a half. Really quick, just Arizona independence. What is your data showing on how independents are breaking? They're breaking towards Trump on the top, but then damn the rest of the ticket in Arizona. So Trump winning independence in Arizona? Yes. That would be big. Thank you very much, Mitchell. Excellent work. Thank you. Thanks for having me, Charlie.

Now, this is just a little preview of what's happening tonight. Last MAGA rally ever. Andrew, walk our audience through the schedule. It is pretty historic.

Well, I mean, what was it? 2015 was the first MAGA rally hosted here. By Tyler. By Tyler Boyer, one of the guys on our team. The audience knows him. You guys undersell it. He invented the MAGA rally. That is true. It's kind of true. He's the Thomas Edison of MAGA rallies. Yeah, and by the way, the story behind how he actually pulled that off was pretty amazing. Nobody wanted to do it, and then he somehow wrangled in Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

And to see Trump and Sheriff Joe interact nowadays and the love affair that exists between those two men, like I think Sheriff Joe wasn't even planning on endorsing him at that point, but he was but he liked him. So he's like, OK, fine, I'll say a few words. And so nine years of building, of toiling, of media attacks, of indictments, impeachments.

It all comes down to the last MAGA rally, which is tonight, Charlie. Grand Rapids, Michigan. Grand Rapids, Michigan, which, based on our last guest, Mitchell Brown, GOP pollster from Signal, said,

You know, maybe he's on to something because something that we talked about on the stream last night, Charlie, is there is a one to one. People ask, OK, what about rallies? Are we doing the voter reg? Are we doing get out the vote? And it's like, well, first of all, the MAGA rallies now are not like the MAGA rallies of 2016. There are a lot more sophisticated. There's a lot more data involved. And we can actually see a spike when Trump goes into a location and.

There will be a spike in turnout. Yeah, it's a one to one. So when he goes to a specific location, we see greater turnout from the GOP side. You probably see some from the Dem side, too, just because it becomes a news story locally. And you got all the local affiliates. You got all the local reporters doing stories on. It's almost obligatory coverage. And that drives turnout because, again,

And, you know, Charlie, during hour one, I was handling a press thing over with Turning Point Action. We were doing a training over there. And these are like 10 out of 10 people, right? They're four out of four voters. They want to get involved. They want to help save the country. They've already voted in their home state. We have people from 49 states, every state except Vermont. So if you're in Vermont, I want you to sign up at Commit100, tpaction.com slash 100 or slash Commit100. Both URLs work.

Get in here, Vermont. But anyways, 49 states from all over the country. And they were like, well, people obviously know how to register to vote and they know where to go to vote. And it's like, no, no, no, no, no. There are so many Americans that do not understand that they have to go into a polling center or where to drop their ballot off. Like in Arizona, for example, Charlie, you can't drop it off by mail anymore because it would be too late. So all these rules...

And, you know, it's like when Trump goes into these locations, the awareness pumps up. So let's hope he pulls off Michigan. Let's hope the last MAGA rally tonight in Grand Rapids is a harbinger of winning that state. What I lobbied them for and I was unsuccessful is that they should have used time zones to their advantage. They should have done the last MAGA rally or the first MAGA rally was in the Phoenix Convention Center.

I think, right? That would have been fun. Right? That would have been fun. Again, you can't always get what you want. At the end of his second term, he should go back to the escalator and just ascend it upwards. Totally. That's right. He should be going up. Goodbye, everyone. Like Elijah, back to the heavens. Exactly. Play the chariots of fire. What I lobbied for was morning rally in Raleigh, two in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and then do the midnight rally as it's like 3 a.m. Eastern. I love that. And then red-eye back to Palm Beach.

And then go vote. But that's okay. Well, what is his schedule on election day? To go vote and to do like, which is great. Actually, at this point, they were debating should Trump vote early. We did really well without that. Trump voting will be taken on every network, which is great. He'll probably do it at like 11 o'clock Eastern, which is perfect. Mm-hmm.

You know what I mean? 8 a.m. West Coast. Yeah, or maybe a little bit early to hit the morning shows. He'll probably take a couple questions. He probably is going to call into Fox and Friends. He'll probably call into talk radio. He's going to probably talk into drive time radio in Philadelphia and, you know, all of that. And then in the afternoon, they probably going to be working more radio stations about getting out to vote. And then there's a big watch party in Mar-a-Lago, which we will not be there. We will probably be right here, right where we belong, broadcasting to the masses. Yep. Yeah. I mean, this is this is, you know,

Probably right now, the next 18 hours, maybe 20 hours is the most political active hours on the American calendar. Right. There's been so much work that has gone into this moment.

And right now, I mean, you should I mean, Charlie, I don't know if you've been over there this morning. The turning point action building is a beehive. I'm going there. We got caller. We got call centers all over the place. People are getting trained. Are we filming all this and putting on social media? We should. I mean, I'm not sure. We got to be tweeting this stuff out. Is Democracy Institute any good? Are they left wing or right wing?

With a name like that, I'm pretty wary. It says Trump plus five in Pennsylvania. I think it's like... Okay, all right. I mean, I will say... They're not hurting. That's true. I will say that I... Well, I don't know how you go from a 1.1 million firewall to 500 and... Guys, we'll see you tonight at the last ever MAGA rally right here. Thank you, Blake and Andrew, for that. I'm going to actually go make some calls. I'm going to eat some food and we're going to make some calls to the Turning Point Action folks. Go find a voter. Go vote now.

or else the country will end. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening, and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.