The State Of The Race, One Day Out
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I'm Stuart Vonney. I'm Martha McCallum. I'm Jason Chaffetz. And this is the Fox News Rundown.

Monday, November 4th, 2024. I'm Mike Emanuel. It is expected that tomorrow's presidential election will be decided in potentially seven battleground states.

But a prominent Republican has his eyes set on the keystone state, Pennsylvania. If President Trump carries Pennsylvania, and he carries exactly what he carried last time in Georgia, the race is over. So Arizona and Nevada will just be icing on the cake. We're joined by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And Lisa Brady. Record early voting could make it take longer to call a winner in some states tomorrow night. In an election that's remarkably close, and it's obviously really close, it's going to be really hard to tell. Do we see a lead here, or is it just a lead, or do we see something that is insurmountable? And I'm Jason Rantz. I've got the final word on the Fox News Rundown. ♪

As both campaigns make their closing arguments to voters, former President Trump in Battleground, Pennsylvania, said Vice President Kamala Harris is too extreme. She's a radical left Marxist, and if she ever heads this country, this country is finished. And I say it loud and clear.

Everything we've been fighting for so hard to achieve for the past nine years all comes down to the next two days. Vice President Harris's travel Sunday took her to church in Detroit, in Battleground, Michigan. In just two days, we have the power to decide the fate of our nation.

For generations to come. Harris's running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who coached high school football, went into coach mode in the swing state of Arizona. Two minutes left in this game. We got the damn ball. We got the best quarterback on the field in Kamala Harris. We all here know there'll be plenty of time to sleep when you're dead. Not now. Not now.

We know in Arizona a voter two per precinct could be what it takes to win the whole damn race for the country. Former President Trump's running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, also spent some time over the weekend in Arizona making this pitch to voters in Scottsdale.

We've got the best country in the world. We've got the best people. We've got the most incredible natural resources. But we're not going to make the American dream more affordable again by doing the same things that made it unaffordable in the first place. And that is what Kamala Harris is offering all of you. It's what she's offering the state of Arizona. Florida Republican Congresswoman Annapolina Luna says Latino voters could be key for Trump

and for Republicans in close House races. Hispanic voters in some of these battleground states like Nevada, like Arizona, are actually surging in favor of President Trump's platform. And so I think when you're talking about the national demographics that are coming home for the GOP, that's going to affect everyone, not just the presidential, but down ballot. Soon, the speculation will be over and it will be all about driving turnout.

You talk to voters out there, a lot of them are very concerned about the economy, about the border. Former Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. And then people are concerned about the Supreme Court decision.

decision when it comes to Roe v. Wade. So there's issues on both sides, but the top issues really favor President Trump, especially knowing his economy versus the Biden-Harris economy. And right now, I don't think there's any undecided voters. The challenge is who can get out, not just their base, but the low propensity voters is going to determine who wins this election.

To that point, former President Trump has been making the case to low propensity voters, trying to get young men out to the polls by appearing on various podcasts. What do you think of that strategy?

I think it's very smart. You reach a whole new audience. The strength of podcasts has really grown in the last five, six, seven years. And what you find is people get their news a lot of different ways. And the podcast gives them a greater credibility. It also gives you a longer format to talk about issues. It's not you've got to answer something in a 30-second soundbite. So I think it's an excellent place to go. It seems as though

Harris has been afraid of the press. He's trying to run a campaign like Biden did in the middle of COVID, stay away from answering any questions that's not on a teleprompter. And I think that's really hurt her. And Trump not being afraid to go anywhere and go to places that you normally wouldn't think, I think, has been a new addition. And I think

As future presidential races go on, podcasts are really going to come into the format. And I think you're going to see every presidential candidate be on podcasts. Late night Saturday night, Vice President Harris popped up on NBC's Saturday Night Live. They did not extend an offer to former President Trump. What about a fairness issue this close to the election?

It's a big fairness question, and I think NBC is going to have to do something to rectify it. But I don't believe it gained much for Kamala Harris because she copied a 2015 skit that President Trump did during his campaign. I mean, no creativity. I don't think it gained her anywhere. And it only showed how unfair some of these networks are in this campaign. I think it's actually a win for President Trump.

Vice President Harris has attempted to characterize the former president as a threat to democracy in the final days of this campaign. Do you think that messaging resonates at all with undecided voters? No. You've got to understand why she's doing it. It's desperate. She can't campaign on her ideas. But the reason why she does it is she's trying to gin up her base because she's getting a lower turnout than Biden was. So she's got to ramp up

her own base to turn out, so she's got to go further to the left, more sensationalism. And it's not good for America to be able to govern, because she's saying things that are just not true, and it's taking the country in a bad place. I think when you look around the world, too, calling somebody a Nazi and fascist, that's just not—America's too great for that small a politics.

We've seen some heated rhetoric from both sides of this campaign, notably President Biden's garbage comment at the White House later trying to clarify. Do you think the American people are tired of this type of negative talk coming from their leaders? Oh, the American public are extremely tired of this. It's unbecoming. But it also goes to show President Biden is not prepared in this ability to run to make that.

Not just a garbage comment, but to try to use his office to do something no president has done before, literally change what he said in a transcript. I mean, come on. In the office of the presidency? This is – we haven't seen something like this since Watergate. This is unbelievable.

Now, I recognize we are not female voters, you and I, but I'm curious what you think about female voters in terms of it seems like the Democrats are banking on them voting on abortion as a driving issue. But do you think economic issues, inflation, you know, putting food on the table may actually drive female voters to the polls in a different direction? Yeah, I wouldn't take any voter into one category, be it your race, your gender or others.

Palmer's winning with women voters for a number of reasons. She'd be the first woman president. That is there. You do have the abortion issue. It drives more to her side there. But she's not winning by the same margin that Joe Biden was with women voters. But I think people are wrong when they run for office, when they try to box everybody in based upon their gender, the color of their skin. Every single person here

cares about the economy, cares about the streets being saved, cares about the border. And that's why you've got to have an overall message about the top issues. And I think this is where Kamala's campaign has really fallen short. Her avoidance of answering those questions, her avoidance when she had the responsibility for the border, her avoidance to really have a clean economic policy. And when she said, sitting on The View,

You're you're you're reaching more women voters watch the view than men. But when she said she would not do any different than what Biden has done, I think really hurt her and her campaign. The polls show a toss up race. We will find out after election day how accurate those polls are. Fox is projecting a coin flip election. What do you expect out of tomorrow?

I give Trump an advantage right now, but it's a very close race. I don't think anyone's put the race away. It's been this way the whole time. But if you look at the momentum, President Trump has been growing throughout the weeks. He's been leading in the swing state polls. These polls have always been off. But what's interesting, they've always undercounted President Trump.

They had Biden winning by more than eight points. They had Biden winning Wisconsin by six and a half, and he only ends up winning in by 20,000 votes. So it'll be really interesting to see if they undercount President Trump again. If that's the case, it could be a much bigger election and not as close as we think. But reelect by electoral college, not a popular vote. And I really have said from the beginning, the place you want to look is Pennsylvania.

If President Trump carries Pennsylvania and he carries exactly what he carried last time and adds Georgia, the race is over. So Arizona and Nevada would just be icing on the cake. And if you watch all their campaigning from Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, that's where everybody's looking. But now you look at New Hampshire, when President Trump won against Hillary Clinton, that was the closest state that President Trump didn't win.

And Virginia is getting closer. So there's more come and play. The race is tight. I think the Republicans will win the Senate. And I think the House, unfortunately, is a toss-up. This is a time that Republicans could have an easier chance of gaining seats, but they let the Democrats out-raise them. And I think if President Trump is able to win the White House, he could carry the Republicans across the line to keep the House and maybe grow some seats, because most of the members are underperforming President Trump.

Interesting. So, yeah, I was curious about coattail effects as it relates to some of those critical battleground House races and some of those battleground Senate races. Yeah, the place I would really look, you know, in the Senate, it's just purely map because not everybody's up. Republicans will win the white and will win West Virginia. They'll win.

And the real races you want to start watching is Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. And it's all direct same with the presidential there. And so it could fall the same way. I think one of our very best candidates is Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. And it's kind of like an Olympic athlete. He's beginning to peak now. We've had a poll where he's been in the lead, but they're going to be close. In the House, Republicans start with an advantage. Yeah.

They get three new seats in North Carolina. We should be able to pick up Alaska, the seats in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The seats all really watch at the very beginning. You watch North Carolina won. Do we get that fourth seat in North Carolina running against Congressman Davis? You look at Derrick Anderson.

In Virginia, this is Spanberger's old race. We pick up there. Watch Maine about Golden. If Austin beats him. If Republicans win those, they're going to have a very big night. And you want to see what you hold in New York and California. I mean, I'm very proud of the fact...

Every time I was leader, we gained seats, even when Republicans were losing everything else. When Biden won the White House, it was the first time since 1994 not one Republican incumbent lost, and they said we'd lose 15 seats, and we ended up beating 12 Democrats.

We won in California and New York. We elected the most Republican women, the most Republican minorities. I would think if they would follow along that suit, recruiting good candidates, they've got a better opportunity to win now than they did in the other years. But we won all those years. As a former House speaker, is there a particular issue you would like to see get done over the next two years in the 119th Congress?

Well, I would hope they would stop fighting over the small issues and really focus. They've got to tackle the debt. We've got to continue to be able to expand the government efficiency. If you've got Elon Musk, take advantage of that.

I've always thought of what the future holds with China. We've got to work on our supply chain, not be dependent on there. Whoever captures AI and quantum has the advantage for the future generations. We need to make our investments there. You just want to make government more efficient, more effective, and most definitely more accountable. So if Republicans hold the House, do you expect Mike Johnson will be back as speaker, or do you expect a shakeup in leadership?

No, I think if you hold the House, the Speaker stays. Now, if we lose the House, we're not like Democrats. If you get handed the speakership and you don't keep it, you don't become leader. That would be an opening for new leadership. Interesting. All right. So we will track it all. The former Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy of the great state of California, always fascinating, picking your brain. Thanks so much. Safe travels to you. Thank you, Mike. Thank you.

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This is Jason Rance with your Fox News commentary coming up.

They've been crisscrossing the country. It is time for a new generation of leadership in America. Vice President Harris and former President Trump holding multiple events per day in the final stretch. The day I take the oath of office, the migrant invasion ends and the restoration of our country begins. Sometimes dueling rallies in the same battleground state. Hello!

Well, thank you very much, North Carolina. You are a special group of people. But tomorrow, the countdown ends and the counting begins. And that means crunch time for the Fox team making the calls on election night and beyond if needed. Well, there are two or two and a half inputs into a call.

Arnon Mishkin is director of the Fox News Decision Desk. The first half input is what is the prior, what we call the prior, which is what is the reporting about that state, what is the historical results from that state and the like. And we all know states that are...

sort of predominantly blue or predominantly red, and we've seen it over the years, have never gone for the other side. And that's an input. But also for many states, the state is purple, but it may have changed recently because of people who've moved in or moved out. That's

One input. The main inputs are, number one, the results of the Fox News voter analysis, a survey of 100,000 Americans, which we are conducting over the course of the days before and on Election Day to find out how people are voting. And we have polls going on in every one of the 50 states.

which is a preliminary input. It doesn't, you know, we don't really call a state based on the poll, but it's an input. And then there is the massive, the major input, which is what is the vote in the state look like? How is it being reported?

What are we seeing? Is Trump ahead? Is Harris ahead? And where are they ahead in the state? Not geographically, but also in terms of are we looking at early vote, which we think will skew more Democratic than the state itself? Or are we looking at Election Day vote, which we think will skew more Republican than the total vote of the state? And that's...

very difficult this year because in 2020, we had a very clear indication of that how people vote told you who they voted for. So if they were voting by mail, they were voting for Biden. And if they were voting in person on election day, they were voting for Trump.

In fact, in 2020, I believe Joe Biden won every state in America if you just look at the mail-in vote with the exception of Alabama. And Donald Trump won every state in America if you just looked at the Election Day vote with the exceptions of Connecticut and Vermont.

So it was a very different race. Now we're seeing from all this that the Republicans have done a much better job of getting their voters to vote early or by mail. And that has changed. What we don't know is are they getting more voters to vote early and by mail or are they just, if you will, cannibalizing what they're going to get on Election Day? Well, and—

There has been record early voting, you know, in some states. And how does that affect the overall timeline? Because, you know, generally, you're going to get to a tipping point with all of these resources that you have, where it's becomes basically obvious enough which way a state is heading, that even if there's, you know, 40% of the vote outstanding, let's say, and it had to be officially tabulated, you still already know, you know, who's going to win that state. But if you, you know,

some states count their or begin counting their early votes early and some of them wait till after the polls close on election day, right? That is right. And so in many states, the first tranche of vote that we see reported is the early vote or the mail-in vote. North Carolina is that kind of state. And so we anticipate that in those states that whatever numbers we're looking at,

early are probably bluer or more heresy than the final numbers are going to be. In other states, such as Pennsylvania, the first vote that the state reports out

is the Election Day vote. And we expect that to be going to look a little trumpier than the final outcome of the election is going to be. And so in an election that's remarkably close, and it's obviously really close, it's going to be really hard to tell. Do we see a lead here or is it just a lead or do we see something that is insurmountable?

It's not considered a surprise, right, for a race to get closer near the end. This one does appear incredibly tight, though. Are you surprised by anything you've seen in the various polls during these closing weeks?

I am surprised that there is – in certain states, you're seeing a very clear gender gap, which is I think consistent with what we anticipate with Trump and Harris, that Trump will do much better amongst male voters and Harris will do much better amongst female voters. But in other states, we're actually not seeing that much of a gender gap, and that's confusing.

But that is a sort of a driver to sort of the confusion of sort of what is really going to happen on Election Day. But the key things that I think we need to look at is, you know, Trump has—

A lot of polls up to now have suggested that Trump is making inroads in two key Democratic constituencies. The first is Hispanic Americans, which were more of a 60-40 Democratic constituency, and African Americans, which have historically or in recent history been a 90-10. In both cases, we've seen evidence that Trump has made inroads. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to win either group.

But it does mean he's going to lose it by less. And if he loses it by less, he can win the election by more. And so that's a key thing to look at. The other thing that I've been looking at all year, and I don't know if it's going to exist, is sort of to what extent are Republicans defecting from Trump? You know, they're –

A chunk of Republicans say that they are not part of the MAGA movement or the Make America Great Again movement. And in some polls, we've seen that Harris actually makes serious inroads with that group. It's a small group, and we don't know if the polls we're looking at are noise or if that's what's really going on. But it's enough to make you think we need to look at this group very carefully on Election Day. How much can the Fox voter analysis tell us about this?

which categories broke for each candidate? Can it offer some of the more granular insight when all is said and done? Oh, I think it's going to be a very effective tool for understanding the how and why people voted the way they did. In a really close election, a poll is an estimation measure.

if you will, an estimation tool. And so you cannot discern whether or not something is a 0.5 point race versus a three point race. And so you need to be very careful in looking at the data. But we will have, because it's 100,000 people overall, we are able to make, sort of get breakouts by different kind of demographics. For example, one of the demographics that a lot of pollsters talk about is Hispanic voters or Latino voters.

That's not necessarily how – the right way to look at it because in fact voters of Puerto Rican extraction vote very differently from voters of Cuban extraction even though in both cases we call them Hispanic. And so we are able to break it out by national origin and that can give you a very clear – much better understanding of why –

Trump is making some inroads into what the pollsters call the Hispanic community or why he may not. Why is the and how is the Fox News voter analysis better than the old exit polling?

The first reason is that we do have polls in 50 states. So if you're watching Fox News on election night, you will see maps showing how every state – color-coded maps of how every state voted. And the other guys don't – I mean they don't have that because it costs too much with an exit poll. The second is that what we have seen in – we've run this now through three cycles –

in 2016, 2020, and 2022. And what we've seen is that it's a highly accurate tool for understanding how America votes, why it votes, what are the key issues, and what are the core surprises that you see. How long might we have to wait to know the winner in the presidential race?

So I have taken to my childhood hero or sports hero was Joe Namath, who reputedly, I don't know if it's true, but it was a story. He never beat the spread. And so I've been wanting to make sure we don't beat the spread. I've said the over under is Saturday, which is when Pennsylvania reported last time. I think Pennsylvania is going to do a better job this year in terms of speeding up the count.

And so we may know earlier. So maybe just take the under. But the but the reason I focus on Pennsylvania is it is not clear that either of these candidates can get to 270 electoral votes and therefore 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue without first passing through Philadelphia, without having Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania on their scoreboard. Running the Fox News decision desk seems like a very high-pressure job. I know you have a whole team. We have a large team, yes. You're not doing this alone. But how do you handle it? And on election night, what are you focused on more than anything else? Well, it is a high-pressure environment. There are a number of states that

We can call today. I mean, we can't call them today, but I'm just saying we kind of know how the District of Columbia is going to vote. We kind of know how Idaho is going to vote and the like. But our focus is going to be on the seven battleground states as well as this sort of five or six additional states that we kind of know how they're going to go. But in a big Trump victory or a big –

Harris victory, those states may come into play. And that's the focus of our attention, all the people on the team, pouring over the data, historical data of how the states voted by area and by vote type, as well as sort of the incoming data of the Fox News voter analysis and the actual vote count that we collect. But the bottom line is you and your team call it

as you see it in real time based on the data. That's exactly right. Yes. Arnon Mishkin, director of the Fox News Decision Desk. Thank you, as always, for your time. Thank you very much for having me.

Here's a look at the week ahead. Tuesday, if you haven't done so already, head out to the polls. It's election day. Besides the presidential race and the balance of power in Congress being decided, multiple states have constitutional amendments regarding abortion on the ballot. Several states also have measures related to non-citizens voting. Also Tuesday, the NFL trade deadline is at 4 p.m. Eastern time. And while some teams will be making moves right up to that time, a lot of them will be making moves right up to that time.

A big one has already been made with wide receiver Devontae Adams going from the Las Vegas Raiders to the New York Jets.

Thursday, it's not even Thanksgiving yet, but a reminder that Christmas is right around the corner. Starbucks will begin selling drinks and baked goods from their holiday menu, as well as festive merch. Friday, those vying for one of music's highest honors will be announced. The nominees for the 67th annual Grammy Awards will be unveiled. And that's a look at your week ahead. I'm Tom Graham, Fox News.

The pandemic may have faded from the headlines, but for some reason, the questions haven't. Was COVID actually a natural disaster? What happens when the scientists and the science are at odds? Who are we supposed to trust? From award-winning director, Jenna Furst, check out his new documentary, Thank You, Dr. Fauci, available now. Go to tydfmovie.com to learn more.

I'm Benjamin Hall, Fox News senior correspondent and New York Times bestselling author. Join me every Monday on my podcast as I speak with silent but noteworthy heroes. Make sure you subscribe to my podcast, Searching for Heroes with Benjamin Hall, wherever you download podcasts and leave a rating and a review. Rate and review the Fox News Rundown on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen. It's time for your Fox News commentary. Jason Rantz. What's on your mind?

Vice President Kamala Harris might have just sealed her fate in Pennsylvania, just not in the way she intended. After publicly agreeing with the heckler accusing Israel of genocide, the vice president signaled a desperate attempt to placate Arab American voters in a state where discontent with Democrats' support of Israel has been growing and is likely irreversible. And in doing so, Harris continued to alienate another key demographic, Jewish voters. And it's in Pennsylvania where she may pay the ultimate price.

At a campaign event in Wisconsin, a heckler yelled at Harris about Israel's alleged war crimes. And Harris responded by saying, what he's talking about, it is real. The remark didn't come off as a one off the cuff response, but an affirmation of a false narrative designed to appease unhappy Arab American voters.

Her campaign only walked the statement back after her calculated response gained too much attention. But it wasn't before it became the latest in a series of signals that the Democratic Party, once seen as a strong ally of Israel, is shifting under the weight of progressive voices who reject the Jewish state.

Harris, clearly aware that Michigan's Arab-American community has been growing increasingly frustrated with the Biden administration's stance on Israel, is trying to walk a political tightrope. Michigan has one of the largest Arab-American populations in the country, and in a race that could be won by a very small percentage of votes, this voting bloc yields power.

But it's impossible to pacify this base without accusing Israel of genocide, and Harris is already behind in Michigan. Former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum at the right time, making Harris' chance of winning Michigan exceedingly slim, even with her appeasement strategy. If placating Arab voters in Michigan is unlikely to land, what's the cost?

It's Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, and they could be a deciding factor. Harris is already struggling in Pennsylvania, a state more crucial than Michigan, if she hopes to take the White House. Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, especially in the suburban regions around Philadelphia, have traditionally been a strong Democratic bloc.

But there are signs of movement away from the party, and Harris' recent comments may accelerate that shift. Across the country, Republicans have been making inroads with Jewish voters who rightly feel abandoned by a Democratic Party that seems willing to bend further and further toward anti-Israel progressivism. And it doesn't take much to tip the scales.

In tight races like the ones expected in Pennsylvania and Michigan, even a small shift in voter demographics can make a significant difference, especially when you see other demographics traditionally loyal to Democrats, Latinos and black men, drifting to Trump. It didn't help that Harris passed on a stronger vice presidential choice of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for a Minnesota knucklehead. If Jewish voters who traditionally support Democrats move even slightly towards the GOP, let's say 5%, that could be enough to swing key counties and potentially the state.

This isn't happening in a vacuum. A recent Pew Research survey showed that while Jewish voters still overwhelmingly support Democrats, their support for Republicans has been steadily growing with more Jews viewing Trump as pro-Israel than they do the Democratic Party. A Siena College poll in September even found Trump with a 10-point lead over Harris with Jewish voters. While that's since shifted to Harris, it's unclear if that's due to a sampling anomaly, but it

But it signals there's clearly some movement towards Trump, especially with a new Manhattan Institute poll showing Jewish support for a Democrat presidential nominee is the lowest it's been since the Ronald Reagan era.

The electoral map is unforgiving, and Pennsylvania is a make-or-break-it state for Harris, where every percentage point counts. If Jewish voters decide to punish the Democrats for their lack of support for Israel and embrace of anti-Semitic voices within their party, it could be the nail in the coffin for Harris' presidential ambitions. I'm Jason Rantz, author of What's Killing America? Inside the Radical Left's Tragic Destruction of Our Cities.

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