From Washington: The Battle For Control Of The House
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Sunday, October 27th, 2024. I'm Ryan Schmelz. The race for control of the House comes down to the wire, and with margins this slim, every seat counts. We take a look at some of the races that could make or break the balance of power. I don't know how this impacts things because of the hurricane in North Carolina, but, you know, the Republican delegation was expected to grow from seven in the House of Representatives from North Carolina to ten.

because of redistricting. Now, because you've had this big storm come through, do people not show up at the polls? I'm Jessica Rosenthal. One of the top issues this election is border security and immigration, and no other place may care more about this topic than the critical battleground state of Arizona. I'd say on that issue, the former president is probably favored here because of his record of, you know, shutting down the border.

That's, again, not a solution that Arizonans seek, I don't believe, but it makes them feel more secure about it. This is the Fox News Rundown from Washington. With margins this slim, you can't really tell what's up in the 118th Congress that's made plenty of history, including the first-ever motion to vacate the Speaker of the House. The office of Speaker of the House of the United States House of Representatives

is hereby declared vacant. About one year ago, House Republicans elected Mike Johnson as Speaker. He's got quite the task ahead of him maintaining a razor-thin Republican majority. Control of the House will bring almost every state into play, from coastal states like New York

California, and even Alaska to the middle of the country like Iowa. Congresswoman Marionette Miller-Meeks earned the nickname Six-Pack in 2020 after winning re-election by just six votes. She's once again facing a tough challenge

from Democrat Christina Bohannon. It's a swing district, purplish district, went for Obama twice, went for Trump twice. Trump won the district by about two and a half points in 2020. So this is very much a competitive swing district. Democrats will only have to flip a couple of seats to take control of the House. Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries is hoping to seize on what he believes is a chaotic Republican conference. This is going to be

A race that will play itself out all across the country. Certainly, there's a heavy concentration of competitive contests in New York and California, but it's an expansive map and House Democrats are increasingly on board.

But there are plenty of obstacles and challenges facing Democrats' quest to win back the House and make Leader Jeffries the first person of color to ever be Speaker of the House. I want to kind of walk people through east to west, if they are watching or paying attention to election coverage on election night.

what House races and where might be kind of canaries in the coal mine that will give you a signal about how the House of Representatives might tilt Republican or Democratic. Fox's senior congressional correspondent Chad Pergram breaks down the races and factors that will play into which party controls the House come January. You have seats that are in play from Maine, northern rugged Maine to the tundra of Alaska that could determine control of the House of Representatives and a bunch of places in between.

There's only a couple of places where there's kind of a theme, New York and California, maybe to a lesser degree, Virginia, maybe to a lesser degree, Ohio. But mostly these are onesies and twosies. So let's just start in Maine.

You have Jared Golden, a Democrat, a moderate Democrat who represents a district that's very rural. It's a seat that former President Trump has won the electoral vote. They do an allocation system for the electoral votes in Maine like they do in Nebraska.

And so, you know, that seat has gone. One of those electoral votes, one of the four from Maine, has gone to the Republican candidate before. And so does that make it harder for Jared Golden to prevail? He's up against Austin Terrio, who's a Republican, who's a former NASCAR driver. Some people think that that seat, you know, might be hard for Jared Golden to hold in this cycle, especially with former President Trump at the top of the ticket.

So I would look at that to see if we get returns on that pretty early on. As we work across the map here, I would go down into New York State. There were several seats there. A lot of people think that the reason that Democrats did not win the House of Representatives is because of New York. And if they don't make some serious headway in New York, that's a problem. I mean, think about this, the idea that the minority leader

if not potential Speaker of the House, if Democrats win the House, Hakeem Jeffries is from New York and the Senate Majority Leader is from New York. And you can't flip seats in the House of Representatives in New York, which Kamala Harris is going to carry the state overwhelmingly, frankly.

But there are a few seats around the New York area getting further into Western New York, Mark Molinaro, Long Island, Nick Lolota. You have Anthony D'Esposito, who has a bit of an ethics issue now. Democrats already flipped the George Santos seat. It's not the George Santos seat anymore because he was kicked out. You have Tom Suozzi, the former congressman who is back. So when you look at those districts and those seats there, there are some real opportunities for Democratic pickups.

I could see an issue maybe in Pennsylvania, where if it is a big Democratic win, Susan Wild, a Democrat who represents a swing district there, that probably helps. But if it's a Republican night and former President Trump carries Pennsylvania, what happens with Susan Wild and maybe to a lesser degree Chris DiLuzio on the other side of the state, who's also a freshman? Virginia.

Virginia is an interesting one here because you have a seat in southern Virginia that Elaine Luria, who is a Democrat, she lost and Jen Kiggins is up again. You know, she's a freshman Democrat, flipped that seat from blue to red last cycle. And so, again, Virginia, there was some talk, certainly when former President Biden was running, that Virginia could be in play. There's also a seat in

kind of just to the southwest of Washington, D.C., kind of central Virginia, which is being vacated by Abigail Spanberger, who is a moderate Democrat who's going to run for governor in 2025. And so that seat right there is a real swing seat. You have Eugene Vindman, who is running as the Democratic, and Derrick Anderson, the Republican, running there. And then I would look at another place just to start as we kind of stay in the east here, Ohio.

Ohio has a Senate race that's competitive with Sherrod Brown against Bernie Moreno. Sherrod Brown seems to usually win, even though his state has definitely trended toward the Republicans in the past few years. Some people think that maybe J.D. Vance, being the other senator from Ohio, might help former President Trump in Ohio. Not that that seat's employed at the presidential level, or it might hurt a little bit, but

On the House level, you have two swing districts. You have Marcy Kaptur, who is the longest serving Democratic woman in the House of Representatives in northern Ohio. And in northeastern Ohio, you have Amelia Sykes, who's a freshman Democrat. The Republicans have tried to defeat Marcy Kaptur for years.

They have drawn different districts for her. They've run other people against her. And it just never works. And to some degree, she's a little bit like Sherrod Brown. You know, even though there are these Republican trends in Ohio, she tends to resonate with her voters and get her people to the polls.

And then, you know, after that, yeah, you have to kind of start to look at the South and some seats in the West as well there, Ryan. Well, and I was going to say, too, I've been kind of going through this list and seeing which ones I think could give an indication of how the night's going to go. And, you know, when you talk about those two Ohio seats,

not just marcy captorcy but i think the ohio 13 which is currently held by amelia sykes i that seat's been cursed for republicans they have tried time and time again it's been labeled as a toss-up time and time again tim ryan had that seat for a number of years and republicans just have not been able to flip the ohio 13th congressional district so that is i think that if if one of those seats does flip early and i think we'll get ohio returns relatively early right

I'm from Ohio and they tend to come in pretty early. They close the polls at 7.30 there. They're usually pretty fast. Yeah. So I think that if one of those seats flips...

early on. And also, I think if they're able to flip Virginia 7, which is Abigail Spanberger's seat that's now open, I think that could be an indication that it's going to be a good night for Republicans. But I've also said, too, but if Democrats have a strong showing in, I think, New York early on, that could be a showing of that this could go really well for Democrats later on. Right. Well, those are the seats they kind of have to win in New York. They're going to have a shot at flipping the House because you're going to have these other factors. I

I don't know how this impacts things because of the hurricane in North Carolina, but the Republican delegation was expected to grow from seven in the House of Representatives from North Carolina to ten.

because of redistricting. Now, because you've had this big storm come through, do people not show up at the polls? Do people not know where to go? Do they care to vote because they don't have enough to eat or they don't have a job anymore or they don't have a car? I mean, you can see the myriad of factors here. And even though Florida was not in play, and I know we're just talking about House races here, do you have some surprises down there for the same reason? Maybe more so in the Senate race, which is a little more competitive, though

Those are those X factors that we just don't know. So that's kind of looking in the east. If we start to see some weird returns in those areas, that might signal it could be a really Republican night or Democratic night one way or the other before you start to get deeper into the Midwest and certainly into the West-West. There's seats in California and Oregon and Washington state and, as I alluded to, Alaska, Ryan. Yeah, and New York, you know, there are some things working in Democrats' favor, or

early on and this is going to be probably one of the most if not the most important state uh deciding which party controls the house next year because you know you mentioned anthony d esposito has a pretty serious uh accusation that could lead to an ethics investigation uh the allegation is that he put his mistress on his congressional payroll and then you also have uh

Brandon Williams, New York 22. This was a seat that because of gerrymandering, it's now a very blue seat. So he in many ways is fighting for his political life. But then you have some other situations like Mike Lawler, who's in a very toss up district. Mark Molinaro, as you mentioned before. But these guys are considered to be pretty strong candidates. So, you know, while these are going to be tough races for Republicans, it seems like they got the guys that they need in those spots to potentially win.

- Yeah, and we talk sometimes about candidate quality. It probably helps in the sense of Mike Lawler or Brandon Williams. Maybe not as much now with D'Esposito because of his ethics issues. That's a problem there. That's always a factor in these races. And this is where when you look at that map and you go further west,

You know, in California, certainly, I would think about just the fact that Kamala Harris is from California. She was the senator there. She was the state attorney general. She's known in California. California is a democratic state.

There's going to be big turnout in California. There is a Senate race there that's not competitive. Adam Schiff, the congressman, is running for the Senate against Steve Garvey, the former all-star baseball player. But the idea that Democrats should be able -- again, it's going to be a good night. They need to win about three or four seats in California, because then you offset maybe those redistricting losses in North Carolina. You have Yadira Caravaggio,

who had a pretty close race in Colorado a couple of years ago, won by about 2,000 votes. Again, Colorado now is a democratic state, high democratic performance there. But I'll take you to one of the swingiest districts in the country. Look at New Mexico. So there's a district in southern New Mexico that has flipped back and forth, back and forth, really since about 2016. You had Steve Pearce,

who was a Republican who had served many years, ran for governor. Xochitl Torres Small, who's now been a Department of Agriculture official, won the district in 2018. And looking back at that district, I said, if she wins that district in 2018, Xochitl Torres Small, Democrats will win the House. Well, guess what happened? Democrats won the House. Xochitl Torres Small won that seat. Well, fast forward to 2020. Yvette Harrell won, Republican, beat Xochitl Torres Small.

2022, you have Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, who beat Yvette Harrell. So Harrell is running again. So this district has toggled back and forth many times, and that might be a bellwether. Let me take you to the Pacific Northwest. You have a couple of seats there, one in Oregon and one in Washington state. You have Lori Chavez-Dreamer, who's a freshman Republican running against Democrat Janelle Bynum.

Well, Janelle Bynum has run against Chavez Doremer in previous statehouse races and has prevailed. And so some people think, hey, you know, if she's able to beat Chavez Doremer, that's a good signal that maybe Democrats are going to have a good night. But I'll tell you, if it's the other way around and Republicans hold the seat, you know, that's a seat they absolutely need to hold.

The reverse is true in Washington state. Without question, the biggest upset of the 2022 midterm cycle was Marie Glusenkamp-Perez, who the officials in Washington paid no attention to. It had been a Republican seat, albeit represented by a moderate Republican. You had Joe Kent, who is running again this year, who is a right-wing MAGA Republican who's running against Glusenkamp-Perez.

Well, he lost to her because he was just too extreme for that district. So you have a retread match here. If Marie Glusenkamp Perez is able to hold that seat, and again, she won by a narrow margin last time around, again, the biggest upset probably of the entire cycle, then maybe that tells us a lot that the Democrats are probably going to hold the House. So look at those districts in Washington state and also in Oregon. And then you have Alaska.

Donald Trump is going to win Alaska big time. That's just how it works up there. But you had Mary Peltola, who won a special election a couple of years ago to succeed Don Young, the Republican congressman who had represented Alaska. There's only one district in Alaska since 1973.

If Democrats are able to hold that race, and it's really complicated the way they do it on the ballot, and there's another Democrat who's on the ballot who might siphon some votes from Peltola. But if Democrats are able to hold that seat, then that's probably a signal that that's going to be a good Democratic night. But again, it's probably, we're really talking Wednesday morning here, Ryan, because it's Alaska. And it also might take a while to get some of the returns in because, you know,

It's a big place. You've got the Aleutian Peninsula. You've got people up to the north. Who knows how long it's going to take those votes to come in. What's interesting, Chad, is that you have...

these kind of retread candidates where, you know, Republicans are running Joe Kent again in a seat that they probably should win and should have probably never lost in the first place. But now Joe Kent's running again with the backing of the RCCC. And then you also have Yvette Harrell running again in a seat that, you know, she's won that seat before. So it makes a little bit more sense in that regard. But sometimes the retreads, sometimes that helps. Sometimes people need a couple of times to run.

Sometimes, especially if they've been here and then they lost and then come back. I mean, you had a seat. I talk about New Mexico kind of being this flippy seat now. Go back maybe to the mid-2000s where you had a district in southeastern Indiana. It did the same thing. It went back and forth all the time.

There was a district in New Hampshire then that kind of took over that mantle in kind of the mid-2000s, you know, 2010 and beyond. Frank Guenta, a Republican congressman, you know, moved that district back and forth with the Democrats for multiple years. It was really remarkable. But I think that district in New Mexico is really kind of that flipping district now.

And there was a West Texas district that flipped back and forth a number of times until Will Hurd was finally able to consistently win that seat. And Tony Gonzalez has had it ever since. Yeah, exactly. And that's a seat that could be in play as well. You also have Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat, who's running against the former congresswoman who won in a special election, Maria Flores.

Gonzalez has a slight edge there, but again, she won in a special election. Some people think because it was just that, a special election. I would not rule out also just because there's some controversy surrounding it. Henry Cuellar, the Democrat from Texas who represents a border district, again, an appropriator, but he has legal issues right now, has been indicted. And does that play into that? We're back to candidate quality here.

Yeah. And we go back to those upsets that happened in 2022 for the Democrats that we just didn't see coming. You know, one thing to point out with the Glucencamp Perez seat is that Joe Kent is running a much more focused campaign than he did last time. But also one thing that's interesting with the Alaska seat is that Alaska does the ranked choice voting system. Yeah. And after they had the primary, both Sarah Palin and Nick Begich both qualified to advance to the next round and.

They both stayed in the race and they had a very toxic back and forth between each other to the point that Mary Paltola kind of snuck in there and was able to win the seat. This time you have Nancy Dahlstrom, who was the lieutenant governor. She was the favorite. She ended up losing to baggage in terms of the amount of votes she got.

And so she decided to stay in the race at first. You know, we did an interview with her and she eventually decided to get out. And Begich is now running alone. And that might be the biggest thing that's at play here when it comes to Republicans' chances of winning Alaska back.

Yeah. And Begich is also a retread there as well. Somebody who has run before. You know, it really depends on, you know, what people see. If you're able to kind of recalibrate yourself somehow. I mean, you mentioned about Joe Kent in Washington state running a more focused campaign. You also have a year that, you know, former President Trump is on the ballot.

Does that help in Washington state, which generally, although it definitely has some very distinct Republican MAGA pockets there and that district is a bit of a swing district to start with. Does that help or hurt in Washington state? I don't know, but that's something that could go either way.

And we should probably, before we wrap things up, Chad, let everyone know that with this being such a slim margin and everything being so tight, we could be in a situation where we're sitting there on election night and we probably don't. And we kind of have to go all the way to California to decide who's going to win the House. And we're probably not going to know those results for maybe a number of days.

Ryan, there is a scenario where we could be sitting here when the new Congress starts and there could still be so many close House races because control of the House is probably going to be within a handful, give or take, on either side, much like we have the majority and minority parsed out right now in the House.

And, you know, it's up to the House and the Senate to determine the membership. And there hasn't really been a really competitive or challenged race as you go to start the Congress since 1984, a House seat from Indiana. Frank McCloskey was the congressman, and it took him until May to figure out who to seat, and they eventually seated him, but he was out for five months. You know, there is a scenario that exists where you could have

several of these seats not be called or, you know, with all of the information and sometimes disinformation that we have now, people not believing or competing, you know, returns or something like that, that they don't know what party is really in control of the House when they start constitutionally at noon on the 3rd of January and you have who they do seat,

you know, having to say do they seat those persons or not, maybe that dictates whether or not they can elect a speaker or not, which is the first thing they have to do. And you don't know which party is in the majority. You know, I'm telling you, I don't know that that's going to happen, but I just want to get that out there that that is a scenario that I would not rule out. It's a wild election cycle and we need to be ready for everything. But thank you, Chad, for breaking everything down for us. And we're looking forward to election night. My pleasure.

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Arizona, which had been a red state, went for President Biden in 2020 by a little more than 10,000 votes. The state currently has a Democratic governor and senator and an outgoing Democratic turned independent senator. And the Democratic candidate in the Senate race now is ahead of the Republican in polling. But many polls show the former president ahead of Vice President Harris in the state, though they're often within any margin of error.

Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, has been a state in which immigration issues matter even more than they do in most other states. It is, after all, a border state. Former President Trump told a rally in Atlanta after playing a video about violent crimes committed by undocumented migrants and gang members. And that's number one. That's number one. I will tell you right now that that beats out the economy. That beats it all out to me. It's not even close. The United States is now

an occupied country, but on November 5th, 2024, that will be Liberation Day in America. Liberation Day. Vice President Harris went to visit border officials in Douglas, Arizona a few weeks ago before holding a rally in Chandler. The United States is a sovereign nation, and I believe we have a duty to set rules at our border and to enforce them. And I take that responsibility very seriously.

We are also a nation of immigrants. Harris again insisted that the former president is to blame for the failure of a bipartisan border bill this year that she says would have addressed many of the concerns. Tensions are high in the state. A teacher was arrested this past week in Tempe for making threats against a Republican event at which the former president's son, Don Jr., appeared. Fox 10 Phoenix reported this week about a police hazmat response in Ahwatukee outside Phoenix. Just moments ago, we did see hazmat crews

in suits taking a sign. It appears to be a political sign off of a tree in the area and it looks like they've been doing some multiple tests on the ground. You can see the sign right there. It says Dems lie, but you see that individual completely wrapped in a hazmat suit there this morning. Now Arizona has more registered Republicans than any other voting group, but just behind that is nonpartisan voters with 1,000,000,000

395,000 unaffiliated. I think it is the border with most Arizonans. You know, we've been living with this issue for going on nearly 20 years now. Chuck Coughlin's the CEO of High Ground Inc in Phoenix, and he used to work for the late Senator John McCain. And it's an issue that now has been literally exported to the rest of the country. But we have experienced this since 2008.

and Arizonans know and are practically inclined towards solving the problem. Not so radicalized by the anti-immigrant rhetoric, but more concerned with an actual solution and border security and trade. Mexico's our largest trading partner. Many Arizonans have property in Mexico, in Rocky Point or Puerto Penasco. Many have homes in Sonora.

They go back and forth. It's a fluid, historically a very fluid relationship with Mexico. And many, many people have relocated their lives up here for those economic reasons.

And so I can't imagine that there's a massive amount of the Arizona electorate that would support a deportation policy. We saw that under the DACA issue, which seems to have popular support across Arizona. Back in the day, we tested the Gang of Seven proposal. I think I got that right back in like 2008 when McCain and Floyd

Blake and others were trying to do, you know, a bipartisan solution to this. We found support for that back then, not overwhelming Republican support, but, you know, the Republicans are pretty divided on that, but overwhelming cross bipartisan segment support for that, including an important constituency in Arizona, which are unaffiliated and independent voters. Yeah. Yeah.

What do you think the mood's been toward Vice President Harris generally if the border is such an important issue? Because she had been placed in charge of finding out the root causes of increased migration, and she'd run into some challenges from folks over not visiting the border for quite some time as vice president. Has she, I guess, salvaged the issue in the minds of enough Arizona voters? Or do you think the former president is favored here?

I'd say on that issue, the former president is probably favored here because of his record of, you know, shutting down the border. That's, again, not a solution that Arizonans seek, I don't believe, but it makes them feel more secure about it. Yeah. And, you know, his record and the contribution of COVID to that record, I think, can't be ignored. She has done well.

in terms of introducing herself as a policy leader on this and trying to navigate away from that

narrative that, you know, she's the border czar, she screwed up. And, you know, she's tried to flip the table on Trump with, you know, his lack of support for the bipartisan bill that the Oklahoma senator was running and had both of our senators' supports out here. I think that probably would have been a very welcome legislative accomplishment

by Arizona standards to have that done. And I think she's done a fairly good job of pointing it at him as, you know, the reason we don't have that solution is him. He torpedoed it. And I think most Arizonans are cynical enough to understand that and to give her some room on that.

But it does get back to, you know, who do you trust to get to resolve this issue? And so, you know, that's very much in the air with both of them, because obviously Trump has his significant negatives within the electorate, and she has hers as well. And the lack of confidence that the electorate

at large has about her ability to accomplish big public policy. So, you know, it's, you know, mix that in with the economy, with the international tensions from Ukraine to Israel to the Taiwan Straits to our relationship with China. And there's a lot of tension within the electorate.

about who do you trust to solve these problems. And we came out with a survey yesterday that showed it was within six tenths of a point. And my inclination right now is it's gonna come down to voters who are largely outside of our polling screen, meaning it's gonna be younger voters, 30 and younger, where Harris has a tremendous amount of support

But as we all know, they don't participate in the types of, you know, historically, they don't participate as older voters do. So, you know, can they engage them with that Obama level of enthusiasm of 08? Can they get close to that and get people to turn out? That did happen in 20. There was a lot of enthusiasm around Biden. Our turnout out here was close to 80%.

And, you know, that's a record in Arizona. And if they can replicate that, you know, she will do better. On the other hand, you also have

turning point in these Republican organizations targeting less efficacious Republicans. So Republicans who have ballots, have registered, but don't tend to vote, that have not participated in the cycle before. I think there's fewer of them, but they're focused on them and turning them out. And of course, neither of those audiences in the

in the aspirational place that both of those campaigns want them to be are reflected in any of the polling. So it's really gonna, I think it's all gonna come down to that. The historic statement is the only poll that counts is the one on election day. And that's never more true than what is gonna happen here in Arizona.

Yeah, Arizona voters went from making it a red state to being a purple state. But right now they've got a Democratic governor, Democratic senator and an independent senator. And they most recently voted for President Biden. And yet it does look like there's this is like the one swing state where the former president may be doing best other than Georgia, even if it's only like by a point or two. Is that Arizona sort of getting back to Georgia?

to the redness or is that more of a statement about the issues pertaining to this cycle my colleague here at high ground our pollster paul vence i think said it best the other day he said trump's a unicorn you know he he and his you know he has this uh

electric charm with that MAGA portion of the electorate and that runs through the Republican Party now. Everybody is, you know, a horse and a hat. You know, they're just not, they're not what Trump is. Trump is this unique celebrity figure within the Republican electorate and at large.

He has this particularly engaged relationship. Let's remember, this is the third time in a row he's running for president. People know him. People want him. This is a unique cat. I don't think that's happened in history before where the Republicans have dominated the same guy three times in a row. And so it is a...

Nobody else, it's not a down ticket relationship with MAGA voters and the electorate at large, as you just referred. Arizona now has a Democratic governor, a Democratic secretary of state, two Democratic senators, a Democratic attorney general. The first time you hit a Republican is the state treasurer's office.

And, you know, back in the day when Jan Brewer was governor, though, you'd have to go all the way down to the Corporation Commission. The only statewide office holder was a Democrat on the state Corporation Commission. So it is a it's a dramatic shift.

in the MAGA era that supports Trump, but they have trouble speaking to that broader part of the Arizona electorate. - Is that what you see in the Carrie Lake, Ruben Gallego Senate race? It seems like polling shows him ahead. Is that part of what you're talking about? The Democrat being ahead there?

Yeah, she is not Trump. She can call herself Trump in heels or Trump in a dress or anything like that, but she's not. And she has her own reputation that is solidified in the time since she lost the last gubernatorial election out here to Katie Hobbs that she has to narrate. She has to figure that out. And she's just been unable to get away and expand the universe

of people willing to support her, unlike Trump. Trump has that kind of celebrity appeal. You know, he was elected president. Kerry hasn't been elected anything. And there's a lot of Republicans trying to emulate that that just cannot scale that mountain.

Can you talk to me about some of these ballot measures you guys have? Because I want to talk more about the issues Arizonans are facing. You guys have a ton of them, and one of them is one of the other issues aside from the economy and immigration, that's abortion, that's driving many voters. Arizona could codify Roe, as many states have already done, including red states. Do you think that's an issue that's

That could impact, I guess, the top of the ticket vote or are people of the mind of, well, I can I can split here. I can I don't have to take a party line vote. Or is this like its own issue?

It's certainly helpful for the Democrats to have that on the ballot. It's certainly an issue that's representative of Democrats at large, but as we've seen, a much larger portion of the electorate. The rule, as we all know in American politics, you can't give somebody something and then take it away.

That's just not a good way to conduct yourself. And so there's, I suspect, and our firm is looking at that as like a 58% winner. And so the question becomes then, are there Trump voters who will vote in favor of

the abortion initiative. And I believe there are, I believe there are. - Sure. - As weird as that sounds, those are suburban women who may not, you know, don't really like Trump, but they're locked up with, you know, they're locked in a room with this issue that represents them and they wanna codify it. And so they wanna put it in the constitution and protect their rights.

And I suspect that's what they're going to do. And so I know that's a weird thing. That's a weird thing. That's going to be on the ballot. It will drive turnout. It will. I suspect it'll get.

At one point in time, when Biden was in the race, I was wondering if it would get more votes on the ballot than the presidential cycle. I don't believe that anymore. I think the presidential cycle will get the highest number of votes, which it always does. But yes, Prop 139 in Arizona is a significant electoral driver for Democrats.

Do you think Vice President Harris campaigning with former Wyoming Congressman Liz Cheney, do you think there's any value in that, that this effort to go after maybe disaffected Republicans, especially in your state where, you know, John McCain famously did not get along with former President Trump? Does that sort of effort work maybe with the sort of more independent Arizona voter mindset?

Yeah, two constituencies that's going to work with. As you just articulated, it's going to work with that unaffiliated independent constituency. So in this cycle, we project that constituency to be about 28% of the turnout this fall.

And you have to, if you're running statewide, the rule is you have to win that unaffiliated constituency in order to win the state.

It's a very close battle right now between Harris and Trump with that constituency. But to the meaning of Harris, we have the Republican mayor of Mesa, John Giles. You have a ton of McCain alumni that have formed a Republicans for Harris campaign out here. All of that effort gives permission

for Republicans to vote for Harris. You know, it's apostasy, right? You're like, oh my God, you can't be a Republican if you're voting for Harris. But if these people are saying that, it's giving approval from other people to those constituencies saying, it's okay, it's okay. John Giles, you know, had made, I think it was at the convention or at the press conference out here, the

event out here, the mayor of Mesa said, you know, it's not that Republican Party anymore. It's not your father's Buick.

it. This is something entirely different. I feel that way. I left the party in 17, being a lifelong Republican, because I felt the party had shifted. Jeff Flake, the former senator from Arizona, he woke up one morning and the party didn't exist. He was a free trader.

you know it was a guy who doesn't believe in tariffs doesn't believe in protectionism believes in america's role in the world at large and he woke up one day and literally that party didn't exist anymore and so he he saw that and so um there's all kinds of arizonans like that um you know that consist of you know probably

10% of the Republican former base, 10 to 15% of that Republican base, who are now migrating in Harris's direction. We had it yesterday at about, it's been as high as 12%.

that we've seen it in earlier surveys, that's about cut in half now. We think that's about 6% or 7% of the Arizona electorate are Republicans that are no longer voting for Trump. They're voting for Harris. And in a tight race,

As you know, that makes a big difference. Makes a big difference. And actually, before I let you go, that's sort of the last thing I want to get your thought on is it was so close in 2020, right? Maybe the closest swing state, Arizona, Biden winning by just over 10,000 votes. And then Arizona went through quite a bit after that 2020 election.

There was this big audit of the vote. There were like these legislative hearings. And now we see and other swing states are dealing with this, too. These new legal issues are cropping up, new lawsuits. We know that there's been a big discussion over Arizona's law pertaining to registration forms that demand proof of citizenship. And it sounds like

those voters will stay on the rules and get to vote despite those voters being challenged for now. But just with all of it, how weary are Arizona voters? Do you talk to people? Do you get that sense that people are just exhausted by all of it? Oh, there's so much stress.

I mean, you know, I have good friends, you know, I go to church with, I have colleagues that I work with. I have social friends that there, there's so much stress in the electorate right now about this election, you know, and, and what the outcome is going to be. And if Trump's going to deny it, you know, we have that HBO special, you know, that was on,

you know, stopping this deal that Rusty Bowers and two of our county supervisors

were featured in. There's so much stress going on in the electorate right now. I got to think that doesn't help Trump with the overall electorate when he suggests that he may protest the results. What we're seeing now, conversely, is Republicans are leading Democrats with early ballots. Well, why is that?

Well, he's now encouraging people and Lake is encouraging people to turn their ballots in. Well, we've been doing that since 1992 out here. That's how we vote. Eighty five percent of the electorate is going to vote by mail. And, you know, so, you know, acknowledge the reality and move on. At least he's done it with that. I would think it would behoove him to move on with this as well, because I don't think it's helping the overall narrative of attracting people to his base.

Chuck Laughlin of High Ground Inc., thank you so much for joining us. It's been a pleasure.

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That'll do it for this edition of the Fox News Rundown from Washington. Tomorrow, with a week to go until Election Day, we speak with Montana Senator and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines, who's leading the Republican charge to take back the Senate as polls and races across the country tighten. Until then, I'm Ryan Schmelz. Thank you for listening to the Fox News Rundown from Washington.

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