Evening Edition: Battle Ground States And Voting Trends To Watch
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I'm Rachel Campos Duffy. I'm Jason Chaffetz. I'm Maria Bartiromo. And this is the Fox News Rundown. Tuesday, November 5th, 2024. I'm John Saucier. Election Day. Actually now election night and the culmination of one of the craziest presidential races in American history. Going into tonight's voting, it really is a coin flip on which way things are going to fall. But one thing we do know is this. The American voters voice will be heard

loud and clear. We'll be looking at how the issues have intersected with the poll numbers, with how people vote, and all these shifting demographics. How do the Sunbelt states fare? Do they differ dramatically from the blue walls? This is the Fox News Rundown, Evening Edition. ♪

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A former president spends much of campaign time in court. An incumbent president melts down during a nationally televised debate and gets pushed out by his own party. An unpopular vice president suddenly gets thrust into the spotlight and takes a nomination. Not one, but two assassination attempts against a Republican nominee. And millions of voters cast early ballots.

Crazy to think that this all happened even before November started. But here we are, finally at Election Day, and we really still aren't sure which way this thing is going to go. I don't really have much of a touch because the polls have been kind of very...

uniformed and how close it shows. There's been a few outliers here and there, but it hasn't really been to the benefit of one candidate over the other, at least in bulk. We're speaking today with Fox News audio reporter and podcast host Jessica Rosenthal and Fox News audio political anchor and Washington, D.C. correspondent Jared Halpern.

It's just we've never had an election like this before. We've never had a former president running for their third time for president in the modern era. We've never had a full blown nominee take the reins of a presidential campaign. One hundred and six days before election day, it was one hundred and six days ago that President Biden dropped out of the race, endorsed Trump.

Vice President Harris. She didn't build a campaign from scratch. She inherited the Biden campaign, but it's a different campaign. She's talked about how she would be a different president because the issues are going to be different. She brings different experiences. She had to bring in new staff. She had to message herself. Vice presidents for all of the pomp and circumstance of having Air Force Two in the House and all of that stuff.

are not known figures kind of from a policy perspective and they have to tow the party line, the company line. You don't really have vice presidents that step out in their own. So she has had this added burden of kind of having to introduce herself to America in a little bit over 100 days, running against probably the most famous person in the history of planet Earth. So, yeah.

Oprah might have something to say about that, actually. I mean, but listen, former President Trump has been running for president for 10 years. Kind of longer, I guess, if you think. I mean, yeah, about 10 years, 2015. And he's been president and then he wasn't president, but he has always been running. He has a huge name. People have strong opinions about him one way or another. That wasn't true for Harris. So I do think one of the questions we're going to be looking at tonight is kind of just big picture from, you know, 30,000 feet down.

Are you able to build a presidential campaign, a successful presidential campaign in this truncated three and a half month time period? It's never been tried before, at least in the age of television and the Internet and everything else. And another thing I've noticed about this election that's different from last time we went 2020 is.

Last time it was basically, do you like Donald Trump or do you hate Donald Trump? That was the big thing. There was a big anti-Trump vote in this. This time around, it feels like the people who are supporting Trump are doing so a little bit differently. There's still that anti-Trump vote out there, but it really seems like people are more going for the candidate who they actually support. And early voting, Jess, has been a big deal in this election so far, more so than we've seen in one's past. Yeah.

Yeah, I think we've seen more than 84 million early votes between mailed in absentees and early vote in person. It's just been tremendous. Some of the data that we have going into that kind of helps inform our

I guess where we start on election night. Right. We do have data indicating that, for example, women have outpaced men in the early vote. There are some reports that there are some concerns among Democrats pertaining to the early vote as to lagging African-American votes in places like Milwaukee County, Wisconsin and parts of North Carolina.

obviously, we'll see how that that all ends up shaking out because the true data will obviously come on Election Day. And, you know, Jared and I have talked about this before, this idea of how much does the early vote matter in terms of has your vote? Have you cannibalized your turnout on Election Day? This was the first time that in former President Trump's three times running where he's encouraged early voting. So

So we'll see. Does that impact actual turnout among Republicans when it came to Tuesday? Did Democrats show up in force in early voting or did they actually end up some of them waiting more until election day? So all of that will we don't have a complete puzzle that we're grappling with yet. And who are early voters are early voters, first time voters that are voting for the first time or are these people who otherwise would have shown up earlier?

you know, in the sleet, in the rain on Election Day, but they are now voting early. That's another big question. Party ID is is not as predictive as it once was. And we don't even have party ID in three of those seven swing states. Yeah, Georgia party. And so even in places where Republicans have seen an increase in registration, there are questions about what does that mean?

Does that mean that they're Donald Trump voters or does it not? I mean, one of the big plays that Kamala Harris has made over the last many weeks is trying to appeal to, if you want to call them kind of never Trump Republicans or at least Trump skeptic Republicans. Is that message breaking through? Well, and you look at you look at some of these places like, for example, Cumberland County, which is outside of Harrisburg. I think over 20 percent of the primary vote is

the Republican primary vote in Cumberland County outside Harrisburg went for Nikki Haley after she had dropped out of the race. So you look to that and you see, well, how is former President Trump going to do in a county like that where he did well in 2016? He didn't do as well in 2020. Will he will he see a continued erosion? Are they coming back? Are they coming back? Right. And so you

you're, we're going to keep our eye on counties that like that, where he did well, like for example, in Georgia, the counties outside of, of Fulton, including Fulton, um,

President Biden really ran up the score there as compared to former President Clinton. But Trump dropped off his support in certain counties where he had previously done well. Conversely, Wisconsin, some of the counties Trump had done well in 2016, he did even better in 2020, not by much, but a bit. So he wants to run up the score. He wants to see some of those counties –

like Saginaw County in Michigan, where he won by like less than a point. You know, we're going to be looking at counties like that all night. Nash County, North Carolina. These counties where the former president won by just under a point in 2016 and lost them in 2020. Can he claw back? And of course, Vice President Harris needs to run up the score in all the places where President Biden either, you know, did better than Hillary Clinton or was about even.

Yeah, the margins really are razor thin, especially when you go county by county. It seemed like early on in this election, it was Wisconsin. This is the state we're all holding up saying, all right, here is the key to the election. To me, the chatter has shifted now towards Pennsylvania. Jess, I know you just mentioned a couple places in Pennsylvania where...

specifically in that state are you going to be watching tonight? I think all of us are going to be watching Bucks County for Republicans because that's where Republicans now outregister Democrats for the first time in a long time. But those collar counties, boy, outside of Philadelphia, where President Biden was

was down by one point in philadelphia as compared to hillary clinton he got 81 of the vote she got 82 of the vote now he but he made up for any of that loss in those collar counties in chester montgomery um all those areas outside of philly so i think that all eyes are going to be there i mentioned cumberland those smaller cities harrisburg allentown um

All those smaller type cities, we're going to be looking at those counties to see if Harris can run up the score there. And of course, the big one is Erie County, Pennsylvania, which has in recent times has predicted where the state of Pennsylvania will go. It has gone Democrat, except for in 2016, it went for Trump. I'm going to be looking at the center part of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.

It's been called in recent days kind of the Latino belt. You have a place like Allentown, which has a majority Hispanic population. There are 400,000 Puerto Ricans who live in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Do those remarks from that Madison Square Garden

rally that the Harris campaign has really said, listen, this is the rhetoric that we've been warning about. This is the chaos, the division that we've been warning about. Does that break through? It's not an insignificant number if the margins are as close as they appear to be in a place like Pennsylvania.

We are, of course, discussing the presidential election today, and we have Fox News Radio's political reporters giving their reaction to what's been a wild campaign and could be a crazy night. Fox News audio reporter Jessica Rosenthal and Fox News audio political anchor Jared Halpern have come in from the field to our headquarters here in New York City to cover tonight's election.

And today we're discussing some of the big storylines that matter to voters. Swing states, as always, are in focus. And ahead, we'll talk about one that you've heard a lot about and another which has been quietly flying under the radar a bit, but could be a key factor in who heads to the White House. Don't you go anywhere because more election coverage is yours next.

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Say Harris does win Pennsylvania, but Trump still has a chance if he could take Wisconsin or Michigan. I think Michigan, Jared, is actually a very interesting state here because you've got a large population of auto workers there. They're worried about the future of electric vehicles and the Biden-Harris Green Agenda for the future there. Do you think that may have some sway in maybe pushing Michigan red? It's a state that is worth watching because the key to

Michigan's former President Trump's success in Michigan in 2016 was building what used to be kind of union Democratic support. The white working class voter union members had always just been kind of a lock for Democrats. That changed in 2016 with Trump. Biden brought most of them back into the fold.

Harris has been working really hard to keep them into the fold. And that's going to be a big question, right? Can Harris, you know, build on the support of white voters that Biden was able to do that flipped a state like like Michigan four years ago? OK, you guys have been in this game for longer than I have with these elections. We have another one here. It seems like, you know, they're coming fast and furious as always.

We're going to be here late tonight, which we're excited for. We're happy to bring this coverage, of course. Jess, what do you guys have in the works as far as Fox News Radio's anchored coverage for this evening? We're going to be talking about everything, the demographics of each of these swing states and where the vote was, where we thought the vote was going.

Because everybody's been so confused. I mean, it's been a confusing time. Well, it's really coin clicks, right? Right. And no one knows and everybody's mad at the polls. And so we're going to see. But the real thing we want to bring is the story behind.

of where the American people are based on the economy, based on abortion concerns, based on the border and immigration concerns, based on the issues. Where are people in these shifting states and these shifting counties? How are they feeling? And how did that inform their vote?

We don't have a ticker. We're not on TV. We can't bring you a visual, but we can talk about what people have been going through for the past four years and which story is going to resonate more based on those issues. Was it the economy? Did abortion impact Iowa? I mean, there will be lots of different. If Trump easily carries Arizona, is that a story about immigration? So we'll be looking at how the issues have intersected with abortion.

with the poll numbers, with how people vote and all these shifting demographics. You know, let's not forget Pennsylvania and Michigan have lost a congressional seat.

since the last time we had an election. They have seen shifts in their population and Georgia and North Carolina, two other battlegrounds, have seen increases in their population. How do the Sunbelt states fare? Do they differ dramatically from the blue walls? And we are going to have reporters everywhere. We have reporters with Trump, with Harris. We have reporters in North Carolina, in Pennsylvania, in Arizona, everywhere where this election is going to be happening.

Be decided. We have personnel on the ground ready to bring you the latest results. Yeah, it's one of the things I love about Fox. We really do have resources everywhere. And we've got very committed people who are in those places ready to put in the long hours and ready to bring you the very best coverage you can find anywhere. Jared Halpern, Jessica Rosenthal. Great to see you guys here in New York. And good luck tonight. And thanks for joining us on the Fox News Rundown Evening Edition podcast. Thank you. Thanks.

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