Business Rundown: The Election Betting Floodgates Are Open
2024/10/25
The Fox News Rundown
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Lydia Hu
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Max Gordon
Lydia Hu：报道了2024年美国大选赌博市场的兴起，数千万美元的赌注涌入Kalshi和Polymarket等平台。Kalshi是美国首个完全受监管的政治预测市场，允许美国公民参与，而Polymarket则仅限于海外人士。她讨论了民调与赌注结果的差异，以及CFTC对政治赌博的监管担忧。她还采访了民众对大选赌博的看法，以及对选举公平性的担忧。
Max Gordon：详细解释了Kalshi和Polymarket的运作方式，以及两者之间的区别。他分析了Polymarket上出现的大额赌注，特别是用户名为Freddy9999的用户，其巨额赌注支持特朗普，引发了人们对其动机和潜在影响的质疑。他还讨论了CFTC对政治赌博的监管立场，以及Kalshi与CFTC之间的法律斗争。他指出，虽然赌博市场可能提供比民调更准确的预测，但单个赌注的影响力可能远超单个投票，这引发了对选举操纵的担忧。最后，他还谈到了世界大赛门票价格高昂的问题。
Lydia Hu: 报道了美国大选赌博市场的快速发展，以及由此引发的关于选举公平性、市场操纵和监管的讨论。她强调了民调与赌博市场结果之间的差异，以及CFTC的担忧。她还采访了民众对大选赌博的看法，并呼吁选民积极参与投票。
Deep Dive
Why is election betting gaining attention now?
It's seen as potentially more accurate than traditional polls.
How much money has been wagered on the 2024 election so far?
Over $71 million.
What is the difference between polling and betting odds?
Polls survey voters, while betting odds reflect financial wagers.
Who is currently leading in the betting odds for the 2024 presidential election?
Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris 61% to 39%.
Why are some skeptical about election betting?
Concerns about individuals or entities influencing outcomes.
What is Polymarket and who can participate?
A crypto-powered prediction market; only non-US users are supposed to participate.
What is the CFTC's stance on election betting?
They oppose it, fearing it could skew election outcomes.
How does Kalshi differ from Polymarket?
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and allows US citizens to participate.
What is the average cost of a World Series ticket this year?
About $1,700 per seat.
The recent legal victory for Kalshi, a fully regulated prediction market, has allowed Americans to wager on the 2024 election, leading to millions of dollars being bet on various political outcomes.
- Kalshi won a court ruling allowing it to operate as a regulated election prediction market.
- Over $71 million has been wagered on the 2024 election so far.
- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) still opposes political betting, intending to continue fighting regulation.
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