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I'm Jerry Willis, and this is the Fox Business Rundown. Monday, March 17th, 2025. The U.S. stock market has lost $5 trillion in value in just three weeks amid trade war uncertainty. Following last week's sell-off, Treasury Secretary Besson says the Trump administration is not worried, even saying that corrections can be healthy.
clients are losing money and they don't want to hear that that's healthy. But the reality is, is the Treasury Secretary is correct, right? So the fact of the matter is, is we can be that much more confident now that the market has, let's call it shaken out all the weak hands. - The major market indexes have all ticked higher this Monday morning following last week's big sell-off on Wall Street.
We know, of course, that President Trump's tariffs policy has been a major source of this market volatility. At the beginning of March, it was heavy tariffs on all imported aluminum and steel. Beginning in April, his economic team says his reciprocal tariffs policy will go into effect too.
with the president telling the press that April 2nd will be liberating day for our country. The trade war escalation has posed challenges for business leaders and investors alike as they ponder how to manage the uncertainty ahead.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen into a correction that has wiped out trillions in market value. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson weighed in over the weekend saying corrections are healthy and that overly euphoric markets are often what can lead you to a financial crisis.
Amid concerns about the Trump trade war further rattling markets or reigniting inflation, the Federal Reserve also set to meet this Tuesday and Wednesday. Likely to issue a hold this week, many are looking to Fed Chair Jerome Powell to start issuing rate cuts this summer if inflation worsens. We'll start with what to make of the market corrections on the heels of economic concerns.
We have been operating under that same sort of guideline, which we do believe that the sell-offs that we had are temporary. We've been looking at these as buying opportunities, actually. Mark Malek is the chief investment officer at Siebert Financial.
So we're buying, you know, there are a lot of high quality things out there. You know, there are two camps out there right now. One is the, you know, step down back, step back down on the accelerator and go for those growth stocks that are starting to look to us like value stocks. Or do you go for the doom and gloom and start, you know, buying all those more conservative defensive stocks?
And we've been, quite frankly, going for the pedal to the metal. The conservative defensive stocks are, I think, a little bit overbought right now in looking rich, where the stocks that maybe looked rich to us, let's say six weeks ago or five weeks ago, are now great buying opportunities because they have much higher potential growth potential in the future. And these are just great opportunities. Interesting. And it always seems like those conservative picks
never have the headroom of the tech choices, right? I mean, they never seem to grow as much as things that are just imbued with high growth. Anyway, let's break down some of this stuff for listeners. Why is the Trump tariff policy playing such an influential role in the markets? Why are traders, investors so focused on these new rules?
It's interesting. You know, we understand tariffs and how they work very, very well. Right. So we've had a lot of time to practice this. Right. We first focused on them years and years ago. But really, in 2018, many of us really started to open up the open up the textbooks and understand them better. So it's not like something new to most of us.
And in fact, President Trump was very clear in signaling as he was running that there were gonna be tariffs and they were gonna be big. So we had plenty of time to sit and focus on what the potential implications would be. And I think no one is arguing that tariffs are inflationary depending on how they're used.
and that tariffs can certainly be a draw on growth depending on how they're implemented. I think that the challenge with the market is understanding what they're going to look like at the end of the day, right? Not so much the tariffs, believe it or not. It's more about, you know, what are they going to look like? How long are they going to last?
Can we sort of dig our teeth into what this looks like and actually put some numbers on what this might be for earnings growth, good or bad, right? And then it's easier for us to look at the potential possibilities and sort of weigh those out and understand them better. So it's really the unknown, I think, that's vexing the market. And tariffs are just an easy excuse to make for the market pullback. You know, what I hear you saying is stop being emotional, you know,
actually apply some logic to your decision making when you're buying and selling. I think that's really good advice. We are, of course, though, in a correction for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 at this point. Give us some context on what this means for our listeners who may be approaching retirement. Maybe they're trying to fund a kid's college education. What do they need to know?
Right. That is always the challenge backing away from all of this stuff is recognizing your risk tolerance, right? So, you know, when we're investing and we talk a lot about these great growth stocks, right, you get great growth, but growth also comes with cost and that cost is volatility.
And so it's all about recognizing what type of volatility fits your appetite properly. If you need assets in the near future, you should not be in stocks that are highly volatile. In other words, despite how excited you might be about getting that potential great growth out of some of these AI infrastructure companies, that might not be the right investment for you if you need money in the near term. But if you have the luxury of
of let's say three to five years, you can more comfortably invest in these growth assets and tolerate these big moves. So it's all about understanding what you can afford and then building the appropriate portfolio for you. - Let's talk about the Treasury Secretary's comments this weekend. Scott Besant saying that corrections are healthy for the markets and people just need to be patient. What do you make of that?
Yeah, it's so funny because on first time you hear that, it sounds like a harsh thing, right? And we don't want to say that to our clients, right? Because clients are losing money and they don't want to hear that that's healthy. But the reality is, is the treasury secretary is correct, right? So I was very confident on these assets that we're buying now, even prior to the pullback, we were buying when these stocks were considered quote unquote overbought.
But, you know, the fact of the matter is, is we can be that much more confident now that the market has, let's call it shaking out all the weak hands, right? So the people that jumped in and thought they were going to make a quick buck and jump out, all those people have already headed for the hills. You know, at this point, now that the market has sort of, you know, really sat down and had a chance to hit,
handicap all of these, what would these, you know, what would the tariffs look like? Understand better what the president's strategic goals are, what his tactics are going to be like. Now we can sit here and be quite confident and say, okay, yeah, this is kind of been a little bit more healthy. I mean, you look at
now some of these growth stocks. And yeah, they're still kind of on the high side in terms of valuation, but they're much cheaper than they were. And so in fact, the Treasury Secretary is correct, though it may not come out correctly. Not everyone wants to hear that. But the fact is, is we're here now and we have to look at the opportunity that presents ourselves. And the thesis for growth is still there.
And even from a macro perspective, once we get through this stage where we're hashing out all this trade policy, et cetera, I think we're going to look back at this as, wow, that was the opportunity we missed. Bearing in mind, we haven't even heard what the president's stimulus packages are going to look like. They're working on that right now in Congress. So we haven't even really given the administration the chance to show us the stimulative policies that they might have
up their sleeves and in the works.
Thousands of U.S. businesses like Fender, Bissell, and Herman Miller are increasing their sales by reaching over 1 billion consumers globally on Alibaba's online marketplace. In just one year alone, American businesses sold billions of dollars worth of goods on Alibaba's e-commerce platforms. More sales mean more American jobs, higher wages, and a stronger U.S. economy. Learn more at alibabapowersbusinesses.com.
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Interesting. I'm wondering if part of that expectation might be what's going on in the markets. This morning we saw stocks trade higher. They're currently mixed. Do you think that there is legitimate optimism in the market today? Do you think that some folks are buying the dip?
Yeah, I think so. You know, not to say that there are still some nerves that are exposed at this point. Nobody likes to see that. But the reality is, is that we understand exactly what we're talking about at this point. We've seen the high points and the low points. So we know, you know, how low tariffs might be, how high they might be. We've seen the president's, you know, past actions. So we have an understanding of what that's like.
And, you know, dare I mention the Fed, right? So everyone's talking about the Trump put, but what about the Fed put, right? That's still very much a thing. Yeah.
Well, that's exactly where I was going to go next. Fed meeting coming up this week. We're expecting a hold. But if concerns continue, could we see the Federal Reserve quicken their rate cut pace this year? What do you think? Absolutely. Absolutely. And by the way, I'm not I'm sure that that has not escaped the administration as well, knowing that the Fed is still restrictive. Right. So there's a lot of argument. Are they restrictive or are they not restrictive? Absolutely.
The Fed is restrictive by our estimation, and the Fed has plenty of room to cut at this point. And I think we understand where inflation is at this point without, let's say, without tariffs. We understand what tariffs might do to inflation.
But there's a bigger concern out there, which is the lack of confidence, right? So you start to see these consumer confidence numbers that we had a couple of weeks back. And on Friday, we had the University of Michigan number. Those unfortunately are
are real leading indicators of a pullback in consumer spending, right? And if consumer spending pulls back, you know, that is not at all good for the economy. I think the Fed is very much concerned about that, even more so possibly than inflation. Because if we look at those sticky bits of inflation that have been vexing us for the last, let's call it year to 18 months, those are pulling back, right? They're slowly, you know, moving very slowly, but they are coming back down.
So at this point, I think the Fed is very much looking at that. The Fed is looking at the market, right? Because when markets pull back, that also affects consumer confidence. So I think the Fed is very much there. The big question is, is it 25 basis points or 50 or 75? But I think not that this meeting, but certainly the first meaningful probability
of Fed action will be in June. But that can change. That can change. And it has changed a lot as things progress. Mark, great stuff. And you're making me feel optimistic, I have to say. Thank you so much for being with us. An absolute pleasure talking to you. Same here. Thank you for having me.
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