cover of episode Trump's Garbage Truck Moment, Biden Biting Babies, and Swing State Polls, with Stu Burguiere, Stephen L. Miller, and Spencer Kimball | Ep. 932

Trump's Garbage Truck Moment, Biden Biting Babies, and Swing State Polls, with Stu Burguiere, Stephen L. Miller, and Spencer Kimball | Ep. 932

2024/10/31
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Charlemagne Tha God
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Mark Preston
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Megyn Kelly
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Spencer Kimball
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Stephen L. Miller
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Stu Burguiere
Topics
Spencer Kimball: 本次大选民调结果显示,特朗普在一些关键摇摆州具有竞争力,甚至在某些州领先。民调结果存在误差范围,不能完全依赖民调结果来预测最终结果。2020年威斯康星州和密歇根州的民调都低估了特朗普的得票率。哈里斯的表现略逊于拜登,这使得特朗普有机会在亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和威斯康星州等州获胜。宾夕法尼亚州是关键州,民调显示特朗普略微领先或与哈里斯打成平手。内华达州的提前投票数据显示共和党表现超出预期,这使得特朗普在该州的胜算增加。威斯康星州的民调往往低估了特朗普的得票率,这可能是因为白人男性选民在民调中低估了他们对特朗普的支持。宾夕法尼亚州是本次大选的关键州,哈里斯的表现略逊于拜登,这使得特朗普有机会赢得该州。候选人出现在选票上会影响投票率,中期选举的投票率通常较低。低投票率人群在总统大选中投票率会上升,特朗普的支持者中可能存在未被统计到的选民。 Stu Burguiere: 尽管选情胶着,但特朗普的势头强劲,他更有可能赢得大选。特朗普需要赢得的六个州都由民主党州长和民主党任命的州务卿领导,这可能会导致选举结果出现争议。 Stephen L. Miller: 当前选情难以预测,特朗普的势头似乎更强劲。2016年大选后,媒体应该反思其报道方式,而不是试图掩盖负面信息。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Wisconsin considered a challenging state for polling?

Historically, polls in Wisconsin have underrepresented the white male vote, leading to underestimations of Trump's support.

Why might the polls be underestimating Trump's support in 2024?

Polls may be underestimating Trump due to historical trends of underrepresentation, especially among certain demographic groups like white males in swing states.

Why did Kamala Harris pull her advertising from North Carolina?

Harris likely pulled ads from North Carolina due to the state's historical solidity for Republicans and the perceived lack of coattail effects from the gubernatorial race.

Why is Arizona considered a unique swing state?

Arizona is unique due to its focus on immigration as a top issue, which aligns more with Republican candidates, and its unusual gender voting patterns.

Why might Nevada be leaning towards Trump in the polls?

Nevada might be leaning towards Trump due to higher Republican early voting numbers and issues with Hispanic polling accuracy.

Why is Pennsylvania considered a crucial state in the election?

Pennsylvania is crucial because it was Biden's home state and a key battleground; its outcome could significantly impact the electoral college results.

Why did the media react so strongly to Trump's garbage truck stunt?

The media reacted strongly to Trump's garbage truck stunt as part of their ongoing effort to discredit him and align public perception with their narrative.

Why might Trump's recent campaign stunts be effective?

Trump's stunts are effective because they humanize him, tap into his authentic persona, and connect with voters in a way that his opponents cannot.

Why did the Lincoln Project try to equate Trump's comments about Kamala Harris's staff with Biden's 'garbage' comment?

The Lincoln Project tried to equate the comments to divert attention from Biden's gaffe and create a false equivalence to undermine Trump.

Why might Joe Biden's recent behavior with babies be concerning?

Biden's behavior with babies is concerning because it reflects a lack of filter and appropriate boundaries, raising questions about his cognitive state.

Chapters
Spencer Kimball discusses the current polling trends in key swing states, highlighting potential outliers and the general tightening of the race.
  • CNN poll showing Harris with a big lead in Michigan and Wisconsin may be an outlier.
  • Polling generally underreported the Trump vote in 2020, suggesting a possible polling error.
  • Pennsylvania is crucial for Democrats; if lost, it's a difficult path to 270 electoral votes.

Shownotes Transcript

Megyn Kelly is joined by Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson Polling, to discuss the where the polls show Donald Trump currently in key swing states, which Sun Belt states are best for Trump, how Kamala Harris is looking in the states Biden won in 2020, how Trump is performing in Wisconsin and Michigan, the crucial state of Pennsylvania, whether the polls can be trusted after misses in past cycles, and more. Then BlazeTV's Stu Burguiere, host of "Stu Does America," and Stephen L. Miller, host of the "Versus Media" podcast, join to discuss the current mood among Trump supporters as we approach Election Day, the reasons they should feel encouraged and why they would be feeling anxiety, Trump's garbage truck moment after Biden's "garbage" comment, his hilarious riff about it during his recent rally, Trump's overall authenticity over his career even before he got into politics, the media spinning Biden's "garbage" comment as about an apostrophe or Biden's stutter, their hypocritical double standard, Kamala's latest word salad moment, the media trying to pretend Trump also called Americans garbage, Biden biting babies at the White House during the Halloween party, his history of creepy behavior, and more.

Kimball-www.emersoncollegepolling.com)

Burguiere- https://www.youtube.com/StuDoesAmerica)

Miller- https://millerversusmedia.substack.com/)

Done with Debt: https://www.DoneWithDebt.com/)Cozy Earth: https://www.CozyEarth/MEGYN.com) | code MEGYNGrand Canyon University: https://GCU.edu)

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