Megyn Goes Behind-The-Scenes of Her Trump Rally Speech, Plus Key States to Watch, with Henry Olsen | Ep. 935
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Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at noon east. I'm Megyn Kelly. Welcome to The Megyn Kelly Show. It's here. Election day. It is finally here. And we have a packed show for you coming tonight. I'll be joined by more than 20 of your favorite guests, plus some

very special guests. Well, they're all very special. Live on Sirius XM Triumph Channel 111 and also at youtube.com slash Megyn Kelly. We begin at eight, as we believe that's the earliest we're actually going to know anything. And we will be covering all the election news results with instant analysis and reaction. We'll have data gurus, campaign gurus, politics gurus, culture gurus. We got everybody. All the gurus are here.

Later today on this show, I'm going to be taking your calls and I'll give you a behind the scenes look at my time with Donald Trump last night, his final Pennsylvania rally last night, his penultimate rally of his last campaign ever. What an experience. He just voted and we saw a video of him down in Palm Beach voting with Melania and said this is going to be his last campaign. So

If he wins, obviously he can't run again. And if he loses, he's saying outright, he's not going to go for it again. I mean, he would be 82 four years from now. So it's kind of interesting. You know, when I talked to him last night, I talked to his family, Eric Trump and Lara, Don Jr. was there as well, but I didn't actually speak with him, but there was a sense of he's really going to miss campaigning. I think, you know, I think Trump really loves getting out there with people.

And, um, you could see he, you could tell he was going to miss them. You know, I think if you, obviously if he wins today, he'll be thrilled to spend as much time as possible with the American people. He's not an introvert as you know, he's not somebody who shies away from being with people, but I think he actually was feeling a little sad that the campaign piece of it was ending. And, um, I understood it even talking to Eric Trump. It was like,

I get it. I think his biggest fans feel it too. There are, what does Trump call them? Front row Joes. These guys who follow him everywhere. They go to all the rallies. I mean, think about it. It's like a rock band. It's like having roadies, you know? And he performs for them. One of the things I noticed last night was he was going to tell a story. He said, oh, I already told it at an earlier rally. I try not to repeat. Think about that. He did four rallies yesterday. He tries not to repeat.

How? He goes on for an hour and a half. He has endless energy and he tries to make each one special or different, which is very generous of him to the audience. It would be far easier to have a 45 minute teleprompter speech, show up, read it with enthusiasm and leave. That's not him. He loves being there.

He loves the interaction. He loves putting on a show, saying shocking things, being funny. We were just laughing. We went, Doug came too, and our kids came. And the five of us went, it was the first Trump rally we'd ever been to.

And it was just extraordinary. There really was like a strong bond in the air. You could feel it between the audience and Trump both ways. Wasn't just their adoration for him. It was his respect and love for them.

Anyway, a little bit more on that after our first guest today, because I really have been wanting to talk to this guy and I'm going to bring him to you and then we'll pick this conversation up about last night. And today on the back end of our conversation with Henry Olson, he's senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and host of the Beyond the Polls podcast.

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You are in the predictions business and in the polling business and are not too afraid to put your neck out there and tell us what you are predicting now. It's election day, so it's very dangerous to be predicting. But tell us what you're predicting in your final poll.

Yeah, I like to say that I put my neck on the chopping block and I'm waiting for the guillotine to come down. It's going to be close, but I've got Harris up in the popular vote by about a point and some tenths. But Trump up in the electoral college by 297 to 241 that he's going to win six of the seven swing states.

And he could win the seventh. You know, Michigan is the hardest nut for him to crack. But I think that if everything goes according to plan, that we'll know who the president is on Wednesday morning and that president will be Donald Trump. Wow. All right. So walk us through it, because it seems in reading your analysis, you think Georgia and I think North Carolina are going to be the two most important. And that's a very solid and important base for Trump.

Oh, absolutely. The way to think about it is that Georgia and North Carolina are the center of the chessboard. He carried North Carolina narrowly last time. We all know how narrowly he lost Georgia. But if he's able to do that this time, carry both of them, he has three separate and independent paths to get to the presidency. He wins Pennsylvania and he wins those two plus everything else he won. Boom. He's at 270. He gets Michigan and Nevada.

Boom. He's at 272. He gets Arizona and Wisconsin. Boom. He's over 270 again. Three separate ways. So if he can get those two southeastern states, you know, it's kind of like he's got a big lead in the middle of the third quarter. And then he's just got to see whether he can get that over the goal line.

she's not seating North Carolina. That's for sure. I mean, she's not technically seating Georgia, but she seems not to have been focused on it lately. Unlike North Carolina where she was, um, not yesterday, yesterday, she had, I think four or five rallies in Pennsylvania the day before that she was in North Carolina too. So she's not giving up on North Carolina, even though there were reports last week, she pulled a $2 million ad by out of that state. Not sure why she pulled it. Um,

North Carolina did go Trump two times in a row, even when Biden won. And yet the demographics are changing. It's becoming bluer. So how does that factor into your polls? You know, it is getting more popular.

bluer because people moving into the state, but then you've got to balance that with what we know about or what the polls are saying is happening in the African-American community is that if Trump really does get 15, 16, 17% of the black vote as opposed to 9%,

They're a large share of the Democratic base there. That means that Trump's margin from 2020 goes up by two points or more just because of the shift in the black vote. So that more than offsets the demographic advantage of having more out-of-staters move in. And you can see Trump focusing on that. He had two rallies in North Carolina in 60% plus African-American communities. I can't remember in my lifetime

A Republican candidate spending the last two weeks of the presidential campaign in heavily African-American communities in the South, they wouldn't do that if they didn't see that they had the numbers and that they wanted to make sure that that's there, because if it's there, North Carolina should be for the taking.

An interesting update from Raleigh News and Observer in North Carolina about the counties impacted out in the western part of the state by the hurricane, Hurricane Helene. According to the paper, turnout in these 25 western counties was stronger than the rest of the state in the early vote.

At 58.9%, about 2% higher than statewide turnout, which is amazing given all the worries we had about whether those poor folks dealing with enough were going to be able to get their vote. This seems anecdotally to be following a pattern we're seeing at least in Nevada, North Carolina, and maybe it's other states too, of big numbers out of rural communities, which is considered to be good for Trump.

It's pretty much everywhere you're looking at with early vote. Early voting in Trump-friendly communities, rural communities, but also Republican suburban communities is up. You know, you take a look at Nevada. Democrats typically lead the early vote there. Over 40,000 more registered Republicans have voted early in Nevada. That's the first time in at least 20 years. Over 200,000 more Republicans have voted early.

in Arizona. Democrats led that four years ago. Democrats led the North Carolina early vote by over 150,000 people a few years ago. More Republicans voted early. So it's not just rural, it's Republican. And that's been repeated across the country. And Democrats have to hope for a big election day turnout, or this could be much worse than they think it's going to be.

Okay. So the, in Georgia too, the numbers are that the, um, that active voters are turning out early in rural Georgia. So we said that was true in North Carolina. It's true in Nevada. Here's the update, Georgia, active voters turning out early in rural Georgia, more so than Democrat leaning urban areas around Atlanta so far, at least. Um, I mean this, here's the thing though. So you, you hear about all this surge in the rural communities and Republicans should

showing up to do early voting in greater numbers than ever before. And then on the other side, you hear about the surge in women. Women are outvoting men already. We saw that. It's some, is it, I'm trying to remember the latest numbers. It was 52 to 52% was it? I'm trying to get it, but it was 52 or 55% of the vote so far has been female that we, you know, you might assume is bad though.

I know she's got the gender gap with women in her favor, but not all women are Democrats. So what do you make of that? Because it's not unusual to have more women in the in the electorate.

No. I mean, we know that because women live longer, that women, more women will vote than men. That usually it's 52 percent of the national electorate will be female. But the key thing is not looking at how many women have voted early in an absolute. It's comparing it to the past is they say that Dobbs has created this female majority.

groundswell that's going to turn millions of women into voters. And the fact is, the female share of the vote in North Carolina is basically unchanged from four years ago. The female share of the vote in Georgia is up a couple of tenths of a percent. This is not a groundswell.

This is normal Election Day voting that's taking place. So we're not seeing evidence of what the Democrats are talking about in this early vote. Women are voting at about the same rate that they voted in the past. And that's just inconsistent with this, oh, my gosh, gobs was the earthquake that shook American politics argument that they're trying to make.

to analysts and pundits. Well, how do you square that with what the New York Times reported about Pennsylvania, about how Democrats were feeling giddy about some alleged new surge in voter registrations for young women, Democrats?

Yeah, so it's a little complicated, but this one word summation of that is overrated. So let me go through the complicated part. What they showed is that 35,000 or so people who didn't vote in 2020 are female Democrats, and that's a significant number.

But when you add the female and the male votes together and you add the Democrats and you add the female and the male votes Republican, it's a net 19,000 vote gain.

that's not much in a state that'll cast 7 million votes. And then what's more telling, I think, is that among the registered independents, there's no difference in turnout rate between men and women. So what that means is that, yes, female Democrats are turning out, but we also know that the Democratic Party is more female than male. One analyst said that those Pennsylvania numbers simply reflected the fact that 60% of the Democratic Party is female now. And if you were going to have a big doggone

Dobbs effect. Wouldn't you expect that registered independent women would be surging out to vote? That's not happening in Pennsylvania. It's not happening anywhere. Again, this is spin. These are not facts. That's so interesting. I mean, it was, of course, the New York Times reporting that. So it does make some sense.

And you haven't been seeing similar reports out of every state, you know, some, some pattern where you could say, Oh God, like 2022, the women are pissed off about Dobbs and they are going to the polls. You're not really feeling that yet. Other than that one New York times report about Pennsylvania, um,

There is one other thing, and that's the Iowa poll by Ann Seltzer, the Des Moines Register. People treat this woman like she's Nostradamus. And she said that Trump is down, that Harris is up three in red state, Iowa in her final poll.

And she said it's because of women. She said in particular, older women who grew up with Roe v. Wade as the law of the land and are ticked off that it's been taken away saying, look, you know, we thought we dealt with this already. And so the question was, you know, did she see something in the electorate that may be part of a pattern that no other pollster has seen?

Well, the thing is that states don't move independently of each other. If this was happening, we'd be seeing it happening elsewhere. You know, we'd be seeing it happen in the early vote, for example. And the Iowa early vote does not show a massive Democratic or a massive female swing. We'd be seeing it at things like

the national congressional committees. There are three congressional districts there that if this were true, Democrats would pick up. Instead, what you don't see is last minute buys in one of the congressional districts. What you don't see is data from other states that have similar demographies showing that type of swing. In other words, what you have to believe if you believe the Seltzer poll is that Iowa is this little Petri dish all unto itself.

and she's the only one to have figured out that there's this chemical reaction going on, and no other scientist doing similar experiments anywhere else has found this. I suggest she just has a bad data set and that that's more likely the cause, because literally no other piece of data either that we have or that we can infer from the way congressional committees are treating the

campaigns or campaigns are sending their candidates around. Don't you think that Kamala Harris would have sent Tim Walz to Iowa once if their data said they were going to pick up Iowa? Every pollster has a bad poll from time to time. I think this is Anne's.

Okay. Very interesting. So now what, um, what are you seeing in terms of the early vote? Because people on team Trump believe that we are seeing a relatively low turnout in the open urban areas and potentially with, um, black voters and a relatively high turnout in the rural areas. And we assume those are mostly Trump voters. Is that, is that true? Yeah.

We are seeing higher turnout than normal in rural areas that in Nevada, rural counties have much higher rates of early voting. In Georgia, the rural counties have much higher rates of early voting. In Virginia, and this is kind of like my control of the experiment, this is not a swing state.

The most rural congressional district, Congressional District 9, the most MAGA congressional district in the state has more early votes today than they had four years ago. The African-American district, which is centered on Norfolk and Hampton Roads, Congressional District 3, has 60 percent of the early vote that it had four years ago.

You know, you take a look at the most African-American county in urban Atlanta, Clayton County. It's got a much lower early vote than it had four years ago. So these are trends that we're seeing. African-Americans are much less likely to vote early than they were a few years ago. Rural Republicans and rural voters generally are much more likely to vote early. And a lot of them are new voters, too.

is that Pennsylvania and Nevada and North Carolina allow same-day registration if you show up to vote in person. In all three of those states, more people register in October as Republicans than as Democrats because more new voters

came out. And that's an indication that they're not just cannibalizing the old voters, they're adding new ones. The enthusiasm is in the rural areas and the suburban areas for Republicans. Lack of enthusiasm is in African-American areas for Democrats.

Wow. All right. So explain why that's good for Trump, because I think people are getting used to the narrative that Trump is doing much better with black men than any other Republican voters. So is it just that the black vote overwhelmingly is still Democratic? Yeah, that's exactly it, is that doing better means losing blacks by 60 instead of losing them by 80. Now, that's a huge difference is that Georgia is Georgia is 30 percent black.

in the voting. If it's a good night for Democrats, they will have 29, 30% of the electorate will be black. You lose that by 10 points less, that's 3% statewide. That's the margin of error. That's victory or defeat. So losing by less is huge. But if there are fewer blacks turning out, then every black person who doesn't turn out is like 70% or 80% likely to vote for Kamala Harris. So that means

They're losing votes with a low turnout, even though the people who turn out are likelier than the past to vote for Donald Trump. So, you know, I always hope that everybody votes and it could very well be that African-Americans are streaming to the polls today as we speak. But in the early vote total, it was very clear across the country that African-Americans are voting at lower rates than they did before. And combined with a shift on the margin to Donald Trump, that is a very, very significant

dangerous red light over the Harris campaign team bus. We haven't seen, Jackie Henrich, a Fox News reporter, was pointing out on X that we haven't seen a lot of touting of the early vote stats, numbers, demographics from Team Harris. And she was raising the point that normally they would, but the

But the Biden White House knows how to tout promising data that they're seeing in polls. I mean, they've been through this a few times. And I thought that was kind of interesting because we are seeing a lot, some from the Trump war room, some from Elon Musk, who's very tight, of course, with Trump and has his own polling going. I have to say, I saw some of the polling yesterday when I was with the Trump team. I wonder if you read anything into that or if you take away the same conclusion as Jackie Henrich.

Yeah, yeah. Look, I think the New York Times story that you cited earlier shows they know how to get their message out to their friends in the press. The fact that you don't hear it means they don't have it. Let's take Pennsylvania, for example. In Pennsylvania in 2020, because of COVID, there was a huge early vote. Joe Biden won 1.4 million vote margin over Donald Trump in the early vote.

that offset a 1.3 million vote Election Day margin for Trump. It's why Biden won. 2022, John Fetterman won the early vote by 700,000 over Dr. Oz. That offset Dr. Oz's win on Election Day. As of Monday, it looked like the Democrats had about a 400,000 vote early margin over Republicans, even if you assumed 100% of registered independents voted for him.

Kamala Harris, that's a 600,000 vote early vote margin. In other words, her expected early vote margin is 100,000 votes lower in Pennsylvania than John Fetterman's in a race that will have a million more voters. That's why you don't hear the numbers. That's a bad number for her, and they're not going to play it up. And the Trump campaign has been doing its bit to talk about the truth about early voting, which is

the data in every swing state are better for Republicans than they were two or four years ago. We're not used to that. We're just not used to hearing that at all. My entire time covering these things for Fox revolved around Republicans only vote day of.

Yeah, that's not. Well, I mean, it's not to say that Republicans will win the early vote in all these states and Republicans will lose the early vote in Pennsylvania. But it's kind of like the black vote. You know, if you lose the black vote by 15 points less, that's a net gain. If Republicans come out of Pennsylvania only down 600000 votes, that means the Democrats have to rely on Election Day turnout to win those votes back.

And if they can't get a record high or close to record high turnout, that means lack of enthusiasm is dooming their candidate. A 600,000 vote margin is it should be a danger sign for them. And the fact is, Republicans not only are coming out early, as I said earlier, new people who are Republicans are registering and coming out.

early. There's a lot of data, and I won't bore you or your listeners with all of it, but every state that you can track it, you see it's not just the old voters moving the time that they vote. It's new voters who are coming out and voting likely Republican, assuming that people who register as Republican or live in 75% Republican areas are in fact Republican.

Okay. Now what about late breakers? Because that's always something we look at on election night. When you get those exit polls, you always look to see who the late breakers go for. And I saw at least one report with team Harris claiming that the late breakers are going for her, that they really feel somehow Trump did damage to his campaign at that MSG rally. And they, they, they've seen something that's suggests they're winning late breakers.

Do you see that at all? Well, you know, the data are interpretive. Not a whole lot of people ask those questions in polls. The polls that do ask that question tend to back up what the Harris campaign is talking about. And if that's true, that is a good fact for them. But again, you have to ask

When you're talking about the expectation setting game, what are you talking about? And if you're saying the people who are deciding late will swing the election to us, that implicitly means that people who were deciding earlier weren't enough to win. So, yes, the data appear to be backing that up. We know from other polls that there shouldn't be that many people.

late breakers, late deciders. We've seen a lot of polls saying 95% of each side's supporters for months have said they are rock solid in their votes. So a late break in her direction of 2% or 3% only matters on the margin. But if they're depending on that to set the expectation, the implicit admission is that they were behind on the people who had already decided as of last Friday.

All right, let's spend a minute on Nevada, where John Ralston for days now has been updating. This is this reporter out there who everybody puts a lot of stock into on

predicting what's going to happen for days has been saying, um, it's bad. It doesn't look great for the Democrats. I haven't seen this many Republican votes in early voting like ever. And if the Republicans have over a 40,000 vote lead in the early voting going into like today, um,

We're pretty much at the fat lady sings point. Um, then as of, I think it was yesterday, he said the Republicans had either a 42 or 44,000 vote lead, but he did not say the fat lady was singing. And then his final election analysis, which comes out today says, um,

So Trump has about a 30,000 raw vote lead right now. And now that would have been factored in because he was saying as of yesterday, if they had had over 40,000, which they did, then it would have been over. But now he's saying, OK, now today it's down to 30. You're expecting it to go down as more mail in ballots come in because those are more Democrat.

And he says he probably has about 30,000 raw vote lead right now. Still a lot of Clark County mail ballots to be counted. That's a more Dem city and county. That's Las Vegas. And the GOP partial cannibalization of its election day vote will propel some Democrats to victory, like in these smaller House races. But here's what he says.

It's really hard to know what will happen with mail ballots and election day turnout with so many Republicans voting early. I mean, that's true everywhere unless all of the early voters are first time registers. Anyway, he says, but here's what I do know. Both sides, at least people who understand the data on both sides, believe this will be close. Then he goes on to say, I've never missed a Nevada presidential call.

But this one is the hardest since I started doing this. But in the end, notwithstanding this big lead by Trump in the early vote, he chooses Harris, 48.5 to 48.2 over Trump.

I don't know. Now he does say out loud, he says, I know that some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump heart over data, but that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences. History does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe in, please remember this. It will not be clear who won an election night. What do you make of that?

I don't think he is willing to bet. What he says in another section of his prediction is that he's willing to bet that the Reed machine, the machine that was built up by the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, will turn out the votes. He doesn't know where they'll turn out. He doesn't know when they'll turn out. But he says, I've seen it before, even though it's not happening now.

I believe they will get the votes. And I think he wasn't willing to bet against the power brokers in Las Vegas who are all part of that machine. You take a look at the data and there are data people who are looking at the frequency of voting of people in Nevada. How many people have never voted before? How many people have voted in one or two of the last general election? And the fact is Nevada Republicans, registered Republicans are leading in all of those categories.

They're not just cannibalizing out 65-year-old voters who've been voting for in Nevada elections since they moved there 40 years ago. And how do we know that? How do we know that? We know that because we have the Clark County voter files of a guy named Michael Pruesser from Decision Death HQ. You can go to his Twitter feed and he posts all of these data. These are numbers. These are not conjecture.

And you take a look and you see the voting turnout rate of people who have never voted in a Nevada general election by party. And Republicans are turning out large numbers of them early. People have voted in one or two of the past general election. There are more Republicans, a higher percentage of people who have never voted in a Nevada general election

before, a higher percentage who are registered Republican are turning out than Democrat. The same is true for the people who have only voted in one or two general elections. In other words, the 2020 or the 2022. The Democrats take the lead with the people who have voted in the last three. In other words, it's the Democrats.

whose votes of the consistent voters are already in the tank, not the Republicans. And these are data. And I guess John just doesn't know about Michael's website. He's, and nobody, you know, if you were a Republican, would you feed these data to, to John Ralston? Well,

Well, I have to wonder because he says right there in what I read, you know, he's got he's just got a gut feeling that she's going to bring home more votes. I mean, I think to a lot of the audience, that's going to sound like, oh, there's some funny business in the Harry Reid machine. And John Ralston's well aware. We'll see. Well, let's find out. But

but so he just says it's a gut feeling. And then you have Ann Seltzer who I'm just going to go ahead and guess. I don't know this, but that she's probably not a huge Trump fan. And just the way she writes up the abortion stuff with the older voters suggested to me, maybe that was important to her too. It's my speculation, but I do wonder how much these pollsters are like, eh, I've got to make a gut call here.

and I'm going to make the gut call for Trump. Like I look at all the pollsters and oh, what a shock. Larry Sabato somehow found a way for Harris to be, you know, his predicted favorite by far to no one's surprise. You know, it's just that you can kind of go down the list of the pollsters who have been railing against Trump and oh, shockingly, they say in the end he's going to lose.

Right. Yeah, this is the look. I'm not going to cast aspersions on anybody. This is a very difficult election to call if you look at the data. I have a record going back of 20 years. Most of it is all on the Internet so people can go find my stuff. I have predicted I am a Republican. I have predicted Democratic victories when that's what the data told me. I think

In 2012, I think I was the only Republican to publicly say Obama was going to win and got a lot of flack for it. Well, guess what? And I predicted Republicans to win. You know, if I thought based on the weight of the data that Harris was going to win, I would say. But it is very to put it not. But it is very, very difficult.

to call this election. And what that means is you often rely, unless you're really a deep weeds person, on a feeling. And it's very hard to go against your confirmation bias. It's very hard to go against your feelings. The other thing I will say, though, and that is that since Franklin Roosevelt, there has not been a presidential election where

There were more Republicans, there were more Americans who said they were Republicans than Democrats. You can go back through the exit poll era and see that. You can go back through partisan identification survey in the 60s and the 50s and the 40s. 90 years where it's been one way. This could be the first election where more people will tell pollsters that

that they are Republican than Democrat. And when a century of history is about ready to crumble before your eyes, I do not blame anyone who refuses to jump, who says, "I'm gonna go with history over what could be happening." It's just human nature. As Ronald Reagan said,

In National Review in 1964, human nature avoids change and bends over backwards to avoid radical change. A Republican plurality American electorate is radical change. I do not doubt and cast aspersions on anyone who wants to bet in their final predictions against radical change. I was willing to do it. Okay, what about the- I was willing to bet in favor of radical change, and that's why I came out where I did, you know.

What about the 2022? I just...

There we saw pollsters were also, they weren't seeing the huge female vote that was going to come out and rail against Dobbs. The numbers were very good for Republicans in those polls. I mean, it was in a way like a 2016 situation where you went out that night on those midterms and all the data, especially right track, wrong track feelings were in favor of the Republicans. And then boom, the voters dropped the hammer.

No, you know, we're we're pissed. So if the voters if we didn't see in the polls prior to 2022, the anger of, you know, the people who gave the Dems that election. And I realize the Republicans did win the House, but not by the margins they expected. Then what's our assurance that we're not seeing it, that, you know, that we're missing it again?

Well, what I would say is the early vote data in 2024 are much different than the early vote data in 2022. The registration data since 2022 all favors Republicans. You take a look. What's happened in states with partisan registration since November of 2022 to date?

Virtually every state has seen Democrats decline and Republicans go up. The net share ratio is that it's better by two to two and a half points nationwide among Republicans. We did not see the early vote.

jumped in favor of Republicans two years ago. We did not see the sort of dramatic changes in partisan identification that we saw. It was still an electorate that was willing to give, that seemed to be willing to give Biden two years more to turn things around. I think what we've got now is they've got two more years. Things haven't turned around enough or haven't turned around at all for many of them. And then you've got a factor that wasn't the case. And two years ago,

you could take a pass. You could say, "Okay, I'm not happy with Biden, but he's not on the ballot right now." The fact is, he is on the ballot right now. You can't get away from the fact that Kamala Harris is the vice president and is in the tank for every policy decision they made. And then she says, "What's the different decision? How different will her administration be?" And she couldn't think of a single thing where she differed with Joe Biden.

People know that. And the question is, do you want four more years of this? And I think those are the two things that are different than we had in 2022. It's still a close election. I could be wrong. Harris could come out and have a victory. But I think the weight of the evidence suggests that Donald Trump, I'd rather be in Donald Trump's shoes than Kamala Harris's shoes as we're speaking.

I heard you on my buddies over at Real Clear Politics at their podcast talking about the first signs of the evening that you're going to be looking at. And I found these very interesting. Can you talk to me about Virginia three and Virginia seven?

Yeah. Well, Virginia three is the African-American district that I was talking about. The Republicans are not going to win that seat, but the turnout is going to be really indicative. You know, is that if what you're talking about is a low turnout in a Virginia congressional seat that's dominated by African-Americans?

Turnout rates don't vary all that much in states. It's not like people don't show up in a presidential year in non-swing states and do in swing states. So if you've got a low turnout in Virginia three, that's an indication that you're going to have a low turnout in Philadelphia, a low turnout in Detroit, a low turnout in Milwaukee, a low turnout in Clayton County and the black suburbs of Atlanta. It's an indication early.

that things are not going right. And the converse is true. If you get a high turnout, then that means is that, yeah, they all, they didn't show up in early voting, but they showed up on election day. And that's a good sign for Harris. Virginia 7 is a contested multiracial district between the exurbs of Northern Virginia and the city of Fredericksburg.

Biden won it by a little under seven points, and it's a very heavily contested congressional district. This is where Eugene Vindman, the brother of the Vindman who was so important in the first impeachment trial, is running. And if there is a movement among blacks and Hispanics towards Republicans, we will see it here first.

And if we're talking about 830 and instead of winning this district by seven points, you're winning. Harris is winning it by one or two or maybe even losing it. That is a huge warning sign that the racial realignment is real.

and that Trump will do well. The converse is true, is that if Harris is winning it by seven points, just the same as Biden, that says, oh my gosh, despite all the suggestions, it looks like the Biden coalition is being reassembled. So those two districts in Virginia, and Virginia closes at seven o'clock and it votes, counts very quickly. So by 8.30 or nine, we should have a very good sense

from almost complete returns here of indicative areas that have demographics that are important in all of the swing states. And it's one of the reasons I'll be looking closely at both seats. Now, how do we avoid what happened to us today?

Well, all of us in 2016, I told the audience and Steve Bannon about it yesterday, but I went out there as an anchor at 5:00 PM inside the Fox news, you know, sort of brain trust room and received the briefing from Arnon Mishkin and our decision desk. This is before Brett bear and I were going to go on the air and give the audience a wink and a nod update. You're not yet allowed to tell them what you've seen, but you can kind of drive the discussion in a way that telegraphs what you know. Um,

And they said, and I quote, it's going to be a very good night for Hillary Clinton. This is in 2016, the night she lost. The decision desk was being honest in what they, you know, they get paid to be right. And they, this is the way they let us all. And Steve Bannon was telling me he was hearing the same. And I know the Trump family was being told the same.

And yet we all know that it was wrong. So what what's to prevent that kind of thing from happening a few hours from now again? There's nothing to prevent it from happening. I wish I could say otherwise. I was not surprised in 2016. I went out on a limb and said I thought it was that Trump had a good chance of winning. And, you know, my analysis is online and everyone can go read it.

And so I think what people were missing in 2016 is how people who didn't like either candidate were going to vote. You know, there were 18 percent of people who said they did not like either candidate. They had been stable in the one poll that measured that beforehand was the GW Battleground poll. And I had looked at those cross tabs. And what you found was that even as late as the

They took a poll right after the Access Hollywood tape and 57 percent of these people said they were undecided. In other words, the Access Hollywood tape came out and these people did not break to Hillary Clinton. What we know is that they broke late for Trump.

But you could have analyzed that. And that's what I did in my essay. And I think there's an over-reliance on exit polls and an over-reliance on pure polling data as opposed to campaign experience and voting patterns. So

If you get an exit poll and they say it looks like Harris is ahead by three points, don't call it, but she's likely to win the not. This just reminds me of 2004 when the exit polls made it look like John Kerry was going to win. And, well, there was a couple point error in favor of that. And it turned into a George W. Bush victory because there was the exit poll was off.

within its margin of error by enough to miss the George W. Bush victory. And so have humility when you get, when you have the five o'clock briefing, whoever has the five o'clock briefing, step back, have humility about what you're seeing and don't take it as gospel faith.

Yeah, because the polls are still open at that point, which is why you're not really allowed to say anything about them. They're still open all over the country. And you shouldn't influence an election by telegraphing to somebody in any way that it's possibly over for one of the candidates. And especially now, knowing what we know, that these polls are...

are wrong a lot. The exit poll mixture with the raw data that the analysts are getting, it doesn't always make a tasty cocktail. Sometimes it makes something absolutely disgusting, like a white Russian that makes you vomit the next day. So, so you really do need to be careful. And you tell me, like, if you were advising us tonight, my audience and yours truly, like don't make any judgments until this, until that, what, what would fill in that blank?

Okay. Don't make any judgments until you have 70 to 80 percent of the vote in a state like Florida in 2000. Remember that they called Florida for Gore early, called it before the Republican areas of the panhandle had voted, and then they had to call it back because they had faulty exit poll data.

And the exit polls said, well, Gore's going to win outside the margin of error. Well, we know he didn't even win, much less outside the margin of error. Don't make a call or don't imply something until you've got a lot of vote data in. Because that's what happened in 2016, is that when the vote data started coming in, it was, oh my gosh, this isn't happening the way it's supposed to. And we saw it as soon as Indiana closed, literally, because I was live tweeting about

And you could see it in rural counties in Indiana, Kentucky. This is not what should be happening if Hillary Clinton is going to win by five points. And then you get to Florida and it's this early vote is not what should be. She's ahead, but she's not ahead by enough.

And then the stuff was coming in from all these states. You can just see this is not what should be happening if this is a Hillary Clinton night. So wait until you have vote data and substantial amounts of vote data so that you can draw conclusions from it. Because, you know, in 2016, what basically happened was a lot of people who didn't want to vote for Donald Trump.

decided in the last 96 hours to do it. And I know people who went from Friday morning to, oh my gosh, I can't believe I can't put Hillary Clinton in the White House, to literally in the polling booth. I know somebody who literally drove to the election day place thinking that person was going to vote for Gary Johnson. And when they got in the booth, they couldn't do it and voted for Donald Trump. Yeah, who could? Yeah, I understand. Poor Gary. Right.

Wasn't he the Aleppo? What is Aleppo? Wasn't he that candidate who was on Morning Joe? Yes, he was. Yeah, no, that would be the modern equivalent of not knowing where Kiev was in the Ukraine conflict. Somebody asked him on MSNBC, I think it was like, what do you think of what's happening in Aleppo? And he was like, Aleppo? What is Aleppo? Anyway, okay, so...

Can we talk for a minute about the mirage, the red mirage? Because this was the big story that the left bathed in like a warm salts bath for days and weeks after 2020. It was a red mirage you saw there.

and then we all went to bed and we thought Trump won and we woke up the next morning and we were told that he had lost because of the mail-in balloting and the mail-in tends to be more democratic. It seems to me the risk of that kind of a thing is much lower this time, assuming that the mail-in votes are not going to equal what we saw in 2020, which was COVID. Right. Yeah. I mean, there's two reasons that we had the red mirage in the blue wall states. The first was COVID. You just had

unbelievable numbers of people who voted by mail, mainly Democrats, because they were scared they were going to die if they left their house. None of these states have anywhere like the level of mail-in balloting. We now have in-person voting early in Michigan and in Wisconsin. And in Wisconsin, there's like 550,000 mail ballots and over 900,000 in-person ballots. So what that means is that

Fewer people are voting early or voting in person, voting early by mail. They are voting in person. So and then the other factor that affected it was you couldn't report the mail votes until all of the votes were tabulated. And because of COVID, they were all being done in this central precinct area with six feet across, you know, maintaining all the social distancing. It took them forever.

So we have fewer votes to process. We don't have the COVID social distancing structures. We've got more Republicans voting. So there may be a red flag.

Dawn, you know, but again, election analysts know where these votes are. Election analysts know which counties are out. And that's something that on the on air you can talk about is, you know, if it looks like Milwaukee is not reporting its absentee ballots yet, you can say, yeah, Trump's up by 100000. But here's how many mail ballots there are in Milwaukee. And you've got those data.

You know exactly how many mail ballots there are in Milwaukee. And you can temper that a little bit in a way that was hard in 2020. That's exactly what happened in 2012 when the Fox decision desk was about to call Ohio for Barack Obama and thus the presidency. And

Karl Rove said, it's wrong. It's wrong. It's too soon to call it. And I walked down the hallway at Fox News, became this famous moment and cross-examined the decision desk on why they were making that call. And they stood by it. And that's exactly the analysis that they offered, that they could see exactly what the outstanding vote was, where it was, what counties. And they were just far too blue for realistically what was expected to come in from those counties to help the

Mitt Romney enough to save his chances in Ohio. And so they make those, it's like math is basic math, statistics and probability. They make those decisions all the time. They were very comfortable with it. All right. Last but not least, when will we know? Well, I know you don't know, but like what's your best guess on when we'll know who won? Between four and six in the morning on Wednesday at the latest, we might know earlier. Great. Okay. I lied. I've got 40 seconds left. What's your prediction for the house in the Senate?

If Trump does what I think he will do, I think Republicans will have 54, 55 senators. And I think Republicans keep a narrow margin in the House. Wow. If any of what you said is true, the Republicans and right leaners listening to this show are going to give you a medal, Henry Olson. I'm sure you made them feel a lot better. And we'll know. I hope you're right that we will know this time tomorrow. We'll know.

I would love to have you on and join us tonight. We're having this special election night party, and you have earned yourself a ticket, sir. It's a pleasure to spend time with you. Well, thank you. I would love to do that. I am at the University of Houston where I'll be doing live analysis for the students and hopefully live.

live streaming it as well, but I'll certainly make breaks to chat with you during your program tonight. Awesome. We, we will definitely be calling you in on that. Thanks, Henry. All the best. Uh, Henry Olson, everybody. He was great. Wasn't he so clear? It's made it so like interesting. Now we know what to look for Virginia three, Virginia seven. And we'll do that when Henry joins us and he'll tell us what he's seeing in those two counties. But don't forget our special coverage begins at 8 PM. We're taking your calls. Now we're going to have an ad break very quick.

And then call me 833-44-MEGAN, M-E-G-Y-N. The October 15th deadline has come and gone. Are you prepared for what's coming? Do you still owe back taxes? Are your tax returns still unfiled? I know that stress. Maybe you missed the deadline to file for an extension. Now that October 15th is in the rear view, the IRS may be ramping up enforcement and you could face wage garnishments, frozen bank accounts, or even property seizures if you have not yet taken action.

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Before we get to the callers, just want to tell you a little bit about what happened last night. So we did fly out to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and it was super exciting. So exciting that I decided to bring the family because they're Trump supporters too, and they really wanted to see him. And it was, you know, it's history in the making. So we got out there and we went back into sort of a holding room as we waited for Trump to arrive. He'd been all over, you know, he was running a little late, but not too bad. And

And then

Then they asked if I would like to come out and greet him, like when he arrived at the facility. So I said, sure. I went out and in he came and it's great. They always have the same music playing. Here's some pictures for the listening audience. You can go to youtube.com slash Megan Kelly, go about an hour into the show and you'll see the pictures of the two of us here. Backstage is his motorcade pulled into the building. This is where we're coming over. Hello. We're having a greeting. And these shots, by the way, were taken by our friend, Justin Wells, who

who's Tucker Carlson's producer. One of them is Fox News executive producer. Now he's shooting that documentary, Art of the Surge. And by the way, you should definitely be watching this series. Justin, it's incredible the footage that he has gotten of Trump. Think about it. They've had access to Trump this whole summer for the most bizarre election developments we've ever seen. Two assassination attempts, the debate switcheroo.

And, um, you can follow his, his, uh, movie and his series on X. The Twitter account is at art of the search art of the search. Anyway, well worth your time. It's great to see Justin and, um, spend some time together. And it was great to see Trump. He was super kind. It was great to talk. Think he, um, saw the Bill Maher appearance and approved. He gave it a thumbs up.

And then we went out there. We watched him do his thing. He was great. I was so happy to be seated next to Sage Steele and Danica Patrick, who I had on my show back at NBC. And she's such a badass. And she's become so vocal about the women's sports issue. I just love her. She's so tough. And Sage is like an angel sent from heaven. I mean, I just...

She's such a good person. She's so interesting. She's very smart. And you look at her, I have the same feeling whenever I look at Sage Steele, which is I need to try harder. I don't know what to do, but I don't think all of us are capable of looking as luminous as

as Sage Steele. Truly, she's luminous. Anyway, I got to sit next to them, which was exciting. And then Trump was going on. And for, there was a second there, I was like, I don't know, does he, is he going to call me up? What's going to happen? It's going to be kind of embarrassing because I told everybody that I'd be speaking. Maybe I'm not speaking. I'm not sure how this works. And then he did call me up. So I was relieved. And, um,

It was just a quick thing. I got up there. I'll play you a little bit of the beginning. The audience here will not find this story surprising. Take a listen. And, you know, I just mentioned a name, but a woman who I saw the other night on television just ripped some poor idiot apart. Megan Kelly is here and she's doing. Come on. Come up here. She ripped a guy apart. Hi, everybody. It's great to see you.

Can you believe this guy? Can you believe the energy and the stamina on this guy and his hate? I'm ready to go to sleep over there. He's got another rally to go to till tonight. Let me tell you, first of all, one of the reasons why I wanted to come here, one of the many reasons I wanted to come here. When I launched my show four years ago, we had Mark Cuban on the program. May have seen he was in the news this week.

And he started going on about how bad America's race history was and how ashamed he was of America. And that's why I was at all these protests. And he felt it was really important to stand up and speak out about human rights violations. And then it got awkward when I asked him about all the money he was taking from China. Then he dropped a bunch of F-bombs. And I thought, I really enjoy this feeling of proving Mark Cuban wrong. And so here I am at a Trump rally, a strong, intelligent woman.

to prove Mark Cuban wrong again. Okay. So that's how I opened it. And the crowd was not a big group of fans of Mark Cuban. So that went over fine. And then I made a couple of points about why I think it's important to vote for Trump. I'm not going to go over them all. You guys know them. I made most of them on this show yesterday and I make them all the time. My team put together a very short little highlight reel of what actually happened. And I will play that for you.

I do want to tell you the main reasons I am voting for Donald Trump. Number one, immigration. President Trump closed the border. Kamala Harris opened it by choice. It wasn't accidental. She said it would be humane. That's what she and her boss believed. Tell it to Lake and Riley's family. There was nothing humane about it. He closed it. They opened it. It was an intentional choice, and there's no reason not to believe they won't do it again. The boys should not be in the girls' sports.

The boy should not be in the girl's bathroom. The boy should not be in the girl's locker rooms. And by the way, they are going into the women's prisons. She changed the law in California to make sure the taxpayers would pay for their sex change operations. She was not just following the law, she changed the law. President Trump will stop it. He got mocked by the left for saying he would be a protector of women.

He will be a protector of women and it's why I'm voting for him. He will not look at our boys like they're second class citizens. And ladies out there who want a bit of girl power in this election, let me tell you something. How can you win when the sons and the husbands and the brothers and the dads you love are losing? That's not a win. What I don't want, what I don't think you want is the left's version of masculinity.

I'm not into their version of toxic masculinity or new masculinity. I prefer the old version. All of you. And I prefer a president who understands how to be strong and how to fight.

Those guys standing behind me were remarkable. They had, they all had their hard hats on. This is the thing at some of the Trump rallies. And you could tell these were real salt of the earth, Pittsburgh guys, you know, tough and guys who aren't afraid to get their hands dirty and work with their hands for a living and, you know, put in rough days and they don't get rich doing it. And they love this country and they have been forgotten, forgotten by democratic administrations, by Barack Obama and

And certainly Joe Biden's Grant and Joe has paid them no mind, but president Trump did. It's how he won. He brought back 400,000 manufacturing jobs, 400,000. The listlessness that American men are feeling these days is epidemic levels. And by the way, three out of four deaths of despair, men, men are leaving the workforce and they're not even trying to get back in. They don't feel there's a place for them anymore.

And I just think like the messaging from the left is still so anti-male and this pro, you know, fake rah-rah girl power. But really what they're talking about is singularly abortion, as though abortion is empowering. That's how we find our power, by killing our unborn babies. And that's the only way. That's what defines us, that we are losing sight of all the other things that matter.

All the other things that matter, as I've been pointing out in the show for a long time now, most specific, specifically Friday and Monday, abortion is really not on the ballot at the federal level in this election period. It's just not. And we need to be thinking about the other issues that are important to women. And one of those issues is what's happening to our men, to our men by these woke leftists who are trying to shame and blame them right out of their swagger, right out of their

joy. They want them joyless and jobless and voiceless. And so I see why all those men, you're seeing the videotapes pop up now of the men lining up for hours, three-hour lines they're standing in, in the rural counties of Pennsylvania today. And I say, God bless you, men. God bless you. You do hard work all the time. This is one day in which you have to do a different kind of hard work, and you are perfectly suited to do it.

You have to stand there. You have to stand there. If it takes five hours, stand there, get your vote in.

for the prospect of a leader and a government that respects you and cares about you and thinks about you and your interests instead of those of these global elites and the billionaire class that's cutting ads for them like Julia Roberts and Oprah Winfrey. Oprah! Sick of her yelling at me. The stakes here could not be more clear.

So I loved those guys behind me. And I do think I'm sick of the left's shaming of guys like that over their natural male qualities, the need to be strong, the need to protect, the need to take risks. Yes. And swagger. Yes. That's part of it. Some bravado. Absolutely. I think we're emasculating these guys. And then we're wondering where our protectors are. What do you mean?

You know, you castrated him. How do you think he's going to feel? So I just, I want my fellow women, if you haven't gone to the polls today, to think about that. It's not all about abortion rights or girl power. You might need to be thinking more about your son, your dad, your husband, your brother, your male friend, those deaths of despair, and how we get these guys back on track, which does help women too.

Uh, okay. That's that appreciated it. And then by the way, Sage and Danica and Trump all flew off to grand Rapids, Michigan, where he was on stage. He got there at some like 1215. I got, I was in my bed by 1215. I was thrilled and we were all tired. He just took the stage in grand Rapids, Michigan last night at 1215. And he spoke for two hours. He was up there dancing. Do we have videotape of that?

He was up there having a great time. Here, take a look at Saw 3. This is 2 in the morning. He's doing the Trump dance. That's great. And had a really sweet, reflective, and I definitely believe sincere closing message to those who are in attendance, who, as I pointed out an hour ago, are grateful.

like groupies in the way that a groupie follows a rock band. You know, a lot of the same faces go to these rallies and they just adore the former president. Take a listen to Sot, too. I want to take a moment to thank the millions of hardworking men and women who are the heart and soul of this, the greatest movement of all time. Because it's you much more so than me, frankly. Thank you.

You're incredible people. You built this country and you're going to save this country, but you're incredible people. You're really incredible people. And as I said in the very beginning, this isn't my campaign. This is your campaign. This is a great campaign that's now it's nine years, but you've given your time, your money and your whole heart for this cause. And

Your support means more than anything you can even understand. It's amazing. I love you all. You're very special. This is my last rally. Can you believe it? The rallies, these big, beautiful rallies, there's never been anything like it. I think he's

Telling you the truth. He's genuinely going to miss them. I want to tell you this just in from Charlie Kirk, who, as you know, is part of the get out the vote effort for team Trump, along with a pack organized by Elon and some other groups. Charlie just tweeted out the following turnout is mixed and not where we want it to be. Turnout is mixed and not where we want it to be. We need more people to vote. We can't let turnout flatline text everyone, you know, make more noise. We need more.

All right, well, he's seeing something that sounds alarming. So it's 1.13 now in the East. Get out and vote. Get out. Consider yourself texted. Make more noise. We need more.

Okay. Well, we're going to find out more as the day goes on. Let me hear from all of you. Oh, by the way, if you want to see the full remarks of yours truly, they're only like seven minutes long. You can go to youtube.com slash Megan Kelly. They're posted there. All right, let's take some calls. Let's go to Aaron in Wisconsin. One of the critical swing States. Hi, Aaron.

How are you feeling today? How are you feeling about Wisconsin? I'm cautiously optimistic. I think we're going to take seven or six. I think we're going to take six or seven. I think we're going to I think Trump's going to take six or seven swing states. I think he he will either lose Michigan or lose or lose Wisconsin or take one or take vice versa.

Yep. It definitely could be. I mean, I've heard like Mark Halpin really thinks that we should be looking at Wisconsin as Trump's best blue wall state. Um, team Trump feels they realize Pennsylvania could absolutely go either way, but they feel good about their chances in Pennsylvania. But if he just takes one as a, as you know, our first guest was saying, if, if he, if he can somehow lock up North Carolina and Georgia early and then just take one, like,

If he just gets Pennsylvania, then he's good to go. You know, he might take Nevada as well. So we'll see. Wisconsin's big. But why it's so hard to poll, Aaron, where did you get called by pollsters at all? I do. And I say I'm voting for Kamala. But Wisconsin is hard to pull because there's a lot of there's a ton of rural areas in in

for Wisconsin and people don't want to say how they're voting for. So Wisconsin is extremely, why do you say you're going to vote for Kamala when I assume the truth is you're voting for Trump? That's correct. I want to, uh, give them the wrong answer. Why? Um, good question because maybe they, maybe they think Kamala will get more votes if people say they're running for Kamala.

Interesting. All right. So you're one of the people that they talk about is possibly people who like to just mess with the pollsters who. Yes. Yeah, I don't know. They just want to like lead people to believe maybe her support there is stronger than it is. But are you did you already vote? I already voted on Thursday. OK. And did you vote for Trump? I voted for Trump. Yes. OK, well, hopefully we'll know soon. Those blue wall states, they don't count very fast, Aaron.

I also think that the swing states that Trump wins, we're going to get – he's going to tip all those senators from those swing states. And lastly, but not least, I just want to thank you for all the work and hard job you do. And I used to listen to Rush, and you're my first choice to listen to. So –

We appreciate you. That's so sweet. Oh, Aaron, thank you. That means a lot to me. I loved Rush and just felt his absence so acutely when we lost him. So thank you for that honor and good luck today. We'll see. Talk to you tomorrow in one way, shape or form. All right, let's head on down straight down to Texas and Edward. Edward, how are you feeling about Texas and in particular that Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred?

Hey, Megan. I'm not worried about that at all. You know, Ted is, he's, I don't know, he's kind of weird, but we like him anyway. So I'm not worried about that race at all. I think Texas will go much more red than it did in 2020.

I hope you're right. Yeah, go ahead. There's just a couple of things I wanted to say. First of all, your rally speech yesterday was fantastic. And I just wanted to commend you for your moral courage and standing up in this moment and especially being able to put aside that history with Trump. You know, I saw the whole thing unfold in 2015, 2016. And it takes a lot of character to put that kind of thing aside for what really matters to the country. Oh, you are so sweet. Thank you, Edward. It was...

Can I tell you something? It was something when I went out on that debate stage in August of 15 with Trump. I don't know what it was, but I, even before I asked the question, I felt like I could feel the tectonic plates shifting beneath me. Just that something massive was happening there that night.

And I think it was, I don't know if it was a premonition, not about me, but just about Trump, his ascension, his becoming president, what he would do for the country, the change he would make in the world. And I was at the leading edge of it that night in a way. And I felt it. I mean, I could feel it. And then everything exploded. Things got crazy between the two of us in a very strange way.

tumultuous. And then a piece was brokered. You know, I went to Trump tower and saw him negotiated with the help of Brian Kilmeade, the Henry Kissinger of our time. Not everybody knows that. And, um, we made up and we were fine. We've had our ups and downs, you know, he doesn't like it when you criticize him. And I understand that. That's fine.

But we're in a good place. And more importantly than our individual ups and downs is the state of our nation, the future of our nation. I have zero doubt that as between these two choices, he is so far superior. He's the one we need and we can't let this woman win. I mean, she absolutely cannot be the next president. I just can't imagine the country with her at the helm. So I felt like,

Like those tectonic plates reached their destination last night. Like they continued moving. And then there was a settling last night that...

I don't know. It landed in a good and safe place. And I, I liked the ending to it. And I don't know what the next step is. It's tonight. Hopefully that lands in a good place too, but it is nice to know he and I are good, especially because I do respect him so much. And I really admire his policies and I would love to have a good relationship with him, even though I am going to have to hit him from time to time, especially if he wins Edward.

Well, that debate moment, I didn't really like him that much. And then that debate moment is what just totally turned me into a Trump guy. It was that night that I was on board. But the other thing I wanted to say, Megan, is that, you know, I was born in the early 80s. And it feels like that America is gone now. And I worry that my kids grow up in a country that I've been in.

Yeah, I'm losing you, but I got what you said. You worry that your sons are not going to grow up in the great country that you did in the 80s. I'm a little older than you are, but I understand. I was there in the 80s too, and it was a great, great decade, great time to be alive. So fun, and I don't know, just our cares were different. We had an identified outside enemy, and we weren't looking at each other that way. I don't know. I don't see unity coming our way anytime soon, but I also don't believe we've

quote, never been more divided than we are right now. I think we've been more divided than this many times and we found our way back to each other. And I do think the press is to blame for a lot of it, a lot of it. And I think the resettling amongst the press too is going to be great for this country. It's already been great. It's going to be even more great just as soon as these mainstream outlets officially die, the most pernicious ones, it's going to be even greater.

because I do think they're, they commit election interference every day. They, unlike yours truly, who will come out and say, now, look, I'm telling you my bias. I'm telling you who I'm voting for. You can factor all that in when you listen to me. They want you to believe their objective and they go out there and they lie. They lie to you to try to get their chosen candidate elected without owning any of it. So it's BS. Do you guys hear? Thank you for the call, Edward. I'm going to take another one now, but did you guys hear, um,

Oprah Winfrey, she's turning into some sort of nutcase. She's a nutcase. Listen to her last night saying what she thinks the stakes are of this election. We don't get to sit this one out. If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot again.

We are, we are voting to save ourselves from this precipice of danger. Oprah, would you spare me the drama? I realize you made a billion dollars in the drama business, your tears, which you could no longer produce anymore. We all saw you run out of the tears. You got a billion dollars. You stopped feeling empathy for the people who came on your show. Um,

But we can see that you still have your acting skills. You know, you also are a Hollywood movie star and we can see them in full display. The drama, like a 12 year old who's not going to get to go to the dance. We're going to have elections again. Just take a deep breath. You're good. May not turn out the way you want, but we're going to have another election. Even if Kamala Harris wins, even if Donald Trump wins deep breaths, my friend.

meditate your way through it. Call your friend Deepak Chopra. And Team Harris, could you calm down too? Because you're just as hysterical as she is. This is ridiculous. Of course, we will have another election. They don't think Trump will leave office, that's what they're referring to. They think Trump will take office, then he'll never leave office. And by the way, if you really were scared of that, you probably shouldn't have indicted him four times because that's what banana republics do. And that's why dictators, which I know you feel Trump is, wrongly,

don't leave office because they know they're going to be either killed or imprisoned. You're turning us into that country. So I really don't have a lot of time for your protestations about how we'll never get to vote again. It's not true. But you are the ones who created any risk of that by treating our possible next president like he's a felon.

Okay. Let's keep going. North Carolina is another swing state. And my next caller, Matthew, is from there. Matthew, my note here says you're only 19 years old. So that would mean this is your first presidential election. So did you vote?

I sure did. I just want to say first, I don't know if there's many young people watching, but I just want to say I really love your show. It's actually something, I don't get to do a lot of things with my dad. It's one of the things that we love watching. I love that. And it's also...

Yeah, and I just wanted to take a moment to encourage young people to vote because a lot of things that I see, you know, as a young person living in North Carolina, I used to live in New York, is the universities are so small.

they indoctrinate a lot of kids. And I don't go to university, but I see it. And as a young, you know, like the Democrats, you know, everything has to have a label, you know. So in that terms, you know, I'm a gay Trump supporter. But I just, I think it's so awesome just to turn out from young people and hopefully, like,

listening to me, another young person encourages at least one person to go out. How did you become, how did you become a Trump voter as a, as a young man? Because, you know, yes, there's a gender gap, but young people tend to be more left-leaning. They get indoctrinated as you point out by the university. So how did you hold firm against that?

Yeah, yeah. So, well, first, I'm very, like, confident in myself. I believe in the notion of thinking for yourself and not letting someone else tell you how to feel. Radical. And I think...

And I think what J.D. Vance said on the Rogan podcast the other day, I know the left was up in arms like, oh, my gosh, you can't say that. But it's true. You know, he said he has the gay thing. The normal gays will vote for Trump that. You know what? He's talking about me because Trump has one ballot from a gay man. That's me. OK. And yeah.

And I just, I love it. And I'm sick and tired of, especially like, and I just want to speak just for like the LGBT, because that's just a prominent thing in my thing. The Democrats have like,

And this is from my life experience. It made such a vulture culture, especially around young people, where if you're voting for Trump and you're young, you better stay under a rock. And it's just so sad. I just don't understand. Why can't you vote?

you know, the way, even if it's not for Trump, but you know, the, the right, isn't really the ones, you know, pandering like that. And, um, you know, and I, I, I just hope that, you know, people know that this it's, it's, it's important. And if you look like, yeah, well, I mean, I think they, they, they, if they don't know that by now, they're not going to know it. Cause it's like, they've been hearing it from every corner of every news outlet on,

alive, especially if you're in a swing state. I don't have to tell you the airwaves have been completely saturated. Matthew, congrats on your first vote. I think it's exciting. And, uh, I'm happy to hear that you're out there fighting the good fight. Please keep listening and say hi to your dad for me too. That's sweet. Uh, okay. Let's, uh, let's stay in North Carolina and go over to Catherine who's on the line. Hi, Catherine. What's on your mind? Hi, Megan. How are you? Thanks for taking my call. My pleasure.

So as a, and I'm sure you could relate, and I'm sure you could sympathize, as a mother of two teenagers,

God, God bless this conversation. They're conservative. Alexandria just voted for the first time last week. But it's really disheartening when you wait online for your child to vote. And she asked you, you know, mom, I've been seeing these videos on Instagram of people having a hard time voting. And these Chinese, this recent story with a Chinese nationalist that

you know, his vote counted. And she looked at me and she said, I just waited for three hours online. And it's disheartening to see that it might not count because of all these fraudulent votes. And unfortunately, it's baked into the cake. But from a legal standpoint, what can the administration do? God forbid the Republicans lose tonight. What can the administration do to combat that and make sure it doesn't happen in the future? Because it was really sad to hear that from my first time voter. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, I understand it's the problem with that guy. If memory serves in reading the story, he the vote had already been counted and was kind of in the mix. And there was no way of figuring out how he had voted, you know, for whom he had voted. So it's it's the one. But they maintain the folks who run these election precincts that they're what we're trying to prevent is any sort of election affecting rigging of the vote, election affecting fraud in the vote.

and that the instances of fraud or somebody voting who shouldn't be voting like an illegal or somebody who's not a citizen is, are there, there's few and far between and definitely not enough to actually change outcomes. I, I know people have serious doubts about that. All I can tell you is that I'm very well aware that Trump's team had, they've been precinct to precinct in the suite at swing States for the last four years. As you know, Trump genuinely believes that

Not everyone agrees that he lost the last election, quote unquote, because it was stolen from him that he didn't actually lose. And so he's had teams in the various counties of the various swing states trying to put pressure on election officials to make sure that they understand they have a duty not to certify these elections if there's a question about fraud in the vote. So they do have eyes on these precincts in a way they didn't 20, you know, in 2020.

And it's never going to be perfect. It's never going to be perfect. It could be so much better though. So I guess we're, we're sort of trying not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Uh, I don't know, Catherine, we'll have to watch because the one thing I'll say is like, if it's down to the wire, if it's Bush v. Gore stuff, like 536 votes or whatever it was, all hell's going to break loose. If it's a landslide victory one way or the other, maybe we'll have more peace and calm. Yeah.

Famous last words. Thank you for calling. OK, let's go over to Arizona. That's a swing state. And Brian is there. Brian, what are you seeing on the ground there? Hi, Megan. So I went to my nearby polling place this morning, even though I already early voted. And I just did that to observe because I got a mailer yesterday.

advertising that there was going to be a dj and that just kind of threw some red flags for me and i sounded like that would be right for electioneering um and when i got there um the parking lot was pretty packed um but the pulling line itself was very short um i do live in a more blue-leaning district in northern phoenix um but that's just kind of what i've been seeing and um

As far as what I'm feeling, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, not just for the presidential, but definitely down ballot here in Maricopa County. I think that's where Charlie's base, Charlie Kirk, not loving the tweet he sent out. Not sure if you heard me read it.

saying turnout is mixed. He, this isn't specific to Arizona, but I just think that's where his home base is. Turnout is mixed, not where we want it to be. We need more people to vote. We can't let turnout flatline text everyone, you know, make more noise. We need more. That's disconcerting. Is it, does it not match up with what you saw in terms of the lines and so on? I mean, of course he's talking about Republicans.

I haven't seen his tweets, so I can't necessarily comment on them. I moved into this where I'm at now shortly before the 22 midterms. And I know like the parking lot this morning was a lot more packed than it was when I voted in the 22 midterms and the primary earlier this year. But I also know like,

where I live, it's definitely more favorable towards the Democrats. So I can't go by it. Very little turnout. Yeah, it's kind of hard. We're just not going to know. And it's such a weird election. It's I don't remember another election like this where in 24 hours, the Dems could control the House, the Senate and the White House or the Republicans could that all three could potentially be swung one way or another. So there is just so

just so much at stake and there's only one way to secure the W and that is to get out there and not just assume somebody else will do it. It can't be all up to Brian in Arizona, but thank you for calling Brian with your, with your thoughts. Um, let's go to Delaware, Joe Biden's Joe Biden as the, uh, Saturday night live version of Kamala says it Joe Biden's home state, Delaware, Barbara, what's on your mind?

Yes, I am from Delaware, surrounded by what were 75 percent Democrat here. I feel like I don't have a voice. I don't dare say I'm a Trump supporter. I've lost a couple of friends over it. But so I know Delaware is going Democrat. I do know that. However, yes.

I have to say, as a woman, I was so proud to hear you speak last night at Trump's rally. You were strong. You were well-spoken. I don't know. It's very, very, very impressive to me as a fellow woman. You're welcome. Thank you so much.

Yes. I always wanted to go to Trump rally, never had a chance. I'm blind and it's hard for me to kind of get out and do things. But I was wondering, I had a question for you. What did you feel the temperature was amongst Trump, his family and supporters at that rally last night as far as his hopes and expectations for winning?

Very bullish, very bullish. They have internals that they feel great about. It did not seem to be spin to me. They acknowledged that it's tight. No one there was saying it's going to be a landslide. They're showing tight races as well, but with him in the lead. And I think they feel they feel very confident.

So, and it didn't seem like BS, you know, they weren't even like hedging about, well, you know, if we win, it was just kind of like where they're, they're forward thinking. They weren't counting chickens either, but yeah,

I don't know. I just did not get the sense that these people have seen bad data for them at all. To the contrary, it felt like the opposite. Now, who knows? Because one of the things we were talking about was how in 16, their messaging from their internals, from the people they knew in the Republican Party was all negative. He's going to lose. They thought what we all thought.

going into that evening's coverage. And then he didn't. So it's very hard to know, you know, like, how do we know who's turning out? How do we know whether these pollsters know, as they say, their behinds from their elbows? You know, they're all just throwing darts at a board. And it's just so aggravating when you read, oh, the New York Times. Okay, yes, they project Kamala Harris wins. Oh, but then they admit that they heavily overpolled Democrats. So we have to take the whole thing with a massive grain of salt. And then it's like,

you know, you read another poll and it's like, oh, well, you know, they may they may have found a whole new contingent of Democrat voters that nobody else has seen in the other polls, like in that Iowa poll. Who knows what to believe? You know, who knows what to believe? Soon enough, we'll know one way or the other. And that's what we're going to have to bank on. I listen, Barbara, that is that's so sweet of you to say about last night. And I'm sorry that you can't see it, but I hope in listening to it,

you got a kick out of it because I would say, I think Trump's personality is probably very easy to discern even with just your ears, uh, and not, you know, your eyes. I I'll bet you've got a great vision in your head of how he is and what we experienced last night. I do. Thank you, Megan.

Well, thank you so much. I appreciate you listening to the show and maybe we'll talk. We'll do another call later this week where we can talk about results. Scary. We're going to take a quick break. Keep the calls coming. 833-44-MEGAN, M-E-G-Y-N. That's 833-446-3496. And while I have you, can I just remind you...

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It's fun talking to all of you. It's like, it's funny because a friend of mine, she laughs because she's like, oh, she's like, Meg, I know you so well because I listen to you every day, but it's not exactly two way. So I like that now it goes both ways and I get to hear from some of the great people who tune into the show every day. It's a great opportunity for me to get to know all of you. I always have the same impression literally every time. And that is how smart the audience is. Not that I ever doubted you, but seriously, it's like,

sometimes when I was a lawyer and you'd like pull the jurors afterwards, you speak with the jurors after you'd be slightly horrified. You'd want, you'd want to wrap it up really quickly. I never have that feeling when I get to talk to this audience. I'm always like, Oh my gosh, I've got to up my game. Um, smart, thoughtful,

well-informed group. And I'm sure that goes well beyond listening to our show. Um, want to tell you this news update in Cambria County, Pennsylvania, there are voting issues that are making news, Pennsylvania. I say people are now using paper ballots after a software malfunction. We have to watch all of this stuff. Let's not forget what happened with Carrie Lake in Arizona. This stuff can lead to just very bad,

questions about elections. Um, Laura Trump, an ex who runs the RNC says they have secured a court order extending voting hours there until 10 PM. She tells the voters stay in line. If you're in Cambria or can't Cambria County, Pennsylvania, stay in line. They're fixing it and they're extending the voting hours. I know it's

It's long. And if you're in Michigan or Wisconsin, it's apparently thunderstorming there today. No one wants to be out in that. Please stay in line. God bless you. I know it's easy for me to say I'm in this studio, but we need you. We need you. Please. If it's like, think of like our soldiers and the sacrifices they make. You can do just a few more hours out there. Please forgive me for asking this of you, but we need every single vote. I mean, there's so much riding on it.

Um, okay. Going to, going to go back to some of our calls and we got a lot of, a lot of folks on the line today. This is kind of exciting. Uh, Ellen in Pennsylvania, what are you seeing? And did you, did you vote yet? Ellen? No, um, not yet, Megan, but I'm going this afternoon with my husband and my two daughters. Good, good, good, good for you. So what's on your mind? What are you thinking about today?

Well, I just want to tell you, I listen to you every day. I saw you last night at the Pittsburgh rally with Donald Trump. He is amazing and he's so authentic and his concern for America is beyond. He's amazing. He's a wonderful man.

Yeah, he was amazing. And it's incredible how much he gives of himself to entertain the crowd. And so funny. I wish my husband Doug were here because he does a great Trump imitation. He did this bit last night, Trump did, about how Imane Khalifa, that boxer who won gold in the Olympics, did turn out to be male, just as we told you here on the MK Show. Not a surprise to our viewers. But yeah, there was some report leaked showing that he has undescended testicles and a micropenis. Sorry, it's a lot.

And Trump brought it up last night and was like, yeah, it's a man. Can you believe? And he's like, I can't do the Trump impression the way Doug can. But he's like, now they're letting them box. They're letting them beat up the women. Just a little jab, just a little jab of a beautiful woman. Anyway, he is funny. And whatever happens tonight, we are going to miss Trump when he leaves the national scene. Ellen, I'm sure you feel it too.

True. Very, very true. And not only is Danica Patrick a badass, you are as well. And I can't say. So you're wonderful. You're awesome. You really are.

Thank you. Thank you so much. Really, really appreciate it. And listen, you guys make it easy on me because I know you get it. I never have to lower my conversation. I only have to elevate it to meet the thinking minds that are taking in this show. And that challenges me every day to do better, you know, go,

shoot higher, never underestimate my audience and keep plugging away. And we've got just the team for it. So Ellen, thank you. Thanks so much for listening and for your kindness. I'll tell you something funny. You guys last night, as I said, we brought our kids and I guess my mom, my, my mom is 83. She's hilarious. She's coming this weekend. So I'm sure I'll have plenty of stories for you, but she decided to text my 15 year old Yates to find out what was going on. And she wanted to find out how she could watch Yates.

the show with Trump. So he texts her saying, did you get the program on? I'm reading from his text and she says, I got it on. I'm still waiting. Is she coming on? Is there a time she's on? He writes, she's coming on soon. Trump will call her up. Thanks, honey. Then she says her dad would be so proud as I am. That's sweet, mom. Then Yates responds. Yeah, we are so proud. That's sweet, Yates, sir. Then my mom writes, hot damn. Yeah.

She's so funny. And then that was after, I guess I spoke. And then my son responded, that was awesome. Did you see it all? And once again, she wrote, hot damn, maybe we'll have dinner at the White House. My mom makes me laugh. You guys would absolutely love her. I'm going to try to get her on video.

or this weekend when she comes. I just had Abby pour me a cup of coffee. I never drink a cup of coffee during the show. Man, I'm tired. We didn't go to bed till 1215. I shouldn't bitch because Trump was out till 215 and he's 78.

But I, you know, the old gray mare folks, she ain't what she used to be. I'm tired. I woke up. I'm not over the damn daylight savings. Are you? I wake up at 4.15, which is really 5.15, which was on the early side anyway. I didn't even want to be waking up at 5.15, never mind 4.15. So I enjoyed my four hours of sleep. By the way, right now I'm seeing a picture of Andy McCarthy and he endorsed Trump of National Review. He endorsed Trump today, which is great because he's not a huge Trump fan. But he said, as between these two, there's absolutely no question, vote.

Okay. Let's see. Um, how's about going down to, well, wait, Washington looks like Washington state, not Washington, DC and Courtney, Courtney, Washington state. No,

You're all blue like those of us here in Connecticut, so we kind of know the outcome. But what's your experience of this election? Well, Washington State's a lost cause because we've had mail-in ballots for years. And we'll never have another Republican governor because whenever they have it,

a close campaign, they keep finding more boxes of ballots until a Democrat wins. But for all of that, I'm watching these ads and what I'd really like to see is some authentic system of fact-checking. I'm sick of the lying in the political ads.

Oh, that would have been great. Yeah.

Yeah, it would have mattered. The ads are terrible. That one, we played it yesterday just to show people how dishonest they are, but about the woman writhing in pain as she's allegedly dying from a needed abortion that the doctor refuses to give. What a lie. There is no state in the union that will not perform an abortion to save the life of the mother. There is no state in the union that will not perform an abortion to save the life of the mother. And no such law ever mandating something that overrode the life of the mother would ever be upheld as

as constitutional, just absolute absurdities. Courtney, thank you for fighting the good fight from deep blue Washington state. Um, okay, listen, I'm going to take the last minute that we have here and just remind you to tune in tonight.

A lot of people are starting at seven. We decided to start at eight because we're not going to know anything at seven. We don't want to waste your time just vamping about stuff that's absolute filler. So we're going to come on at eight when we might actually have some real data and we're going to have everybody. We're going to have polling gurus. We're going to have data gurus who know how to read the county by county stuff. You know, there's some of which we discussed earlier, like how are Virginia three and Virginia seven looking and what can we glean? We're going to follow up on things like the Charlie Kirk tweet, which might just be

not engagement farming, but like a preset tweet to get you out, you know, like doesn't necessarily telegraph problems, but clearly he wants people out. And so do we please go. And we're going to have all your favorites. I mean, Ben Shapiro is going to swing by Vivek Ramaswamy is going to be here. We're going to have the EJs VDH will be joining us. I mean, basically everybody, you know, in love from the MK show and, um,

Then we'll go through it together. We'll be on as long as it takes and we'll redo it again tomorrow if necessary. Thank you all for trusting us on this day and we'll see you tonight at 8. YouTube.com slash Megyn Kelly or Sirius XM channel 111. Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show. No BS, no agenda, and no fear.