Megyn Goes Behind-The-Scenes of Her Trump Rally Speech, Plus Key States to Watch, with Henry Olsen | Ep. 935
The Megyn Kelly Show
Key Insights
Why are Georgia and North Carolina crucial for Trump's election strategy?
Georgia and North Carolina are pivotal because if Trump wins both, he has three independent paths to the presidency. Winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin in various combinations would secure his victory.
How might the African-American vote impact the outcome in North Carolina?
If Trump secures 15-17% of the African-American vote instead of 9%, it could increase his margin by two points or more, offsetting demographic changes favoring Democrats due to migration.
What trends are observed in early voting turnout?
Early voting in rural areas and Republican suburban communities is up significantly. In states like Nevada and North Carolina, more Republicans have voted early compared to previous elections, which traditionally saw Democrats leading in early voting.
How does the early voting data in rural areas compare to urban areas?
Early voting in rural Georgia is higher than in Democrat-leaning urban areas around Atlanta. This trend is also seen in North Carolina and Nevada, where rural and Republican suburban early voting is surging.
What is the significance of the female vote in the 2024 election?
While more women are voting, the female share of the vote in key states like North Carolina and Georgia has not significantly increased compared to previous elections. This suggests that the anticipated 'female majority groundswell' due to Dobbs is not materializing.
Why might pollsters be biased in their predictions?
Pollsters may lean towards predicting outcomes that align with their political biases. For instance, some pollsters who are critical of Trump might predict his loss even when the data suggests otherwise, reflecting a reluctance to accept radical changes in voter demographics.
What are the key indicators to watch for on election night?
Focus on Virginia's 3rd and 7th congressional districts. Low turnout in Virginia's 3rd, an African-American district, could indicate low turnout in urban areas like Philadelphia and Detroit. Virginia's 7th, a contested multiracial district, will show if there's a shift among blacks and Hispanics towards Republicans.
How can we avoid misjudging election outcomes based on early data?
Avoid making judgments until a substantial portion of the vote is in, such as 70-80% in states like Florida. In 2016, early vote data from Indiana and Kentucky showed discrepancies that should have warned against premature conclusions.
What is the risk of a 'red mirage' in the 2024 election?
The risk is lower due to fewer mail-in ballots and more in-person early voting. However, knowing the number of outstanding mail ballots in urban areas like Milwaukee can help temper expectations of early leads.
When can we expect to know the election results?
By 4-6 AM on Wednesday at the latest, though results might come earlier. This is based on the assumption that substantial vote data will be available by then, allowing for more accurate predictions.
Chapters
- The show will feature more than 20 guests, including data and campaign gurus.
- Coverage will start at 8 PM, focusing on early results and key states.
Shownotes Transcript
