Deep Dive: How Kamala Harris is Polling Against Donald Trump So Far... and What To Watch For, with Spencer Kimball | Ep. 847
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Welcome to the Megyn Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM Channel 111 every weekday at noon east.

I'm Megan Kelly. Welcome to The Megan Kelly Show and this deep dive special episode. Kamala Harris has all but secured her party's nomination using the magic Democratic wand. Now that President Joe Biden has dropped out of the presidential race and we are starting to learn what Americans think of her, her candidacy as she faces former President Donald Trump. A brand new poll from Emerson College out today gives us one of our first looks at how Kamala Harris is faring versus Donald Trump.

Donald Trump in key swing states like Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Here to break it down for us is Spencer Kimball. He's the executive director of Emerson College Polling.

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Spencer, welcome back to the show. Great to see you. Megan, thanks for having me. All right. So what's the top line information on how she's doing so far a couple of days in? Well, what we saw last week where the Democrats or independents were breaking more towards Trump and she seems to have stemmed the tide of the debate loss and bringing the race back to competitiveness, specifically in Pennsylvania and in Georgia.

So she, as far as I understand, basically got the Democrats back to pre-debate numbers for Biden. The collapse from that colossal performance has been rectified, at least according to your poll.

Yeah, that's what we were seeing. Since the debate, we saw Trump picking up one to two points in each one of these states every week. So remember, last time we spoke, Arizona was at seven points. Georgia was getting up to six points. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were up to five points. And we were starting to look at what is President Biden's pathway to victory. And it was a very small window that he had.

Now the race has been shaken up a little bit and we see a couple of different pathways with Harris on the top of the ticket. Okay. So it, it looks like the following, um, five swing States. Uh, let's see, she's trailing Trump in four of them and tied in one of them in Arizona. He's up over Kamala five points, 49 to 44 in Georgia. He's up over Harris by two points, 48 to 46.

In Michigan, he's up one point, 46 to 45. In Pennsylvania, he's up two points, 48 to 46. And in Wisconsin, they're tied 47 percent for each person. So which of those states has been affected the most by her subbing in for Biden?

I would say Georgia, because last time we spoke, I thought Georgia was off the table for the Democrats. And that really put a lot of pressure on that blue wall to be able to hold both Arizona or to hold Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania if the Democrats lose both Georgia and Arizona. So Georgia now being back at two points is a lot more competitive than the five to six points that we were seeing a couple of weeks ago. And that's a key state if the Democrats lose.

are able to get to 270. And who's driving these increased numbers for Harris? Because as I read the write up of this, you pin it to some extent, at least on younger voters. But we've spent the past two days looking at other polls and numbers that show she actually wasn't doing very well with younger voters, which is confusing.

Well, it's going to take it almost looks like they're rebuilding that Obama coalition that was kind of falling apart over the last couple of months. If you remember in 2008, Obama wins that 18 to 29 year old vote by about 30 points. And since 2008, the Democrats have done a pretty good job with that 18 to 29 year old group. What we were seeing over the last few months is that group was pretty split politically.

In some polls, we saw that even leading towards Trump. But now we see that it jumped back over the last couple of days where some of those underlying data points. Now, it's not the same in every state. So in Wisconsin, for example, we might see a little bit more struggle with the younger voter, but that Trump actually struggles with the older voter a little bit more in Wisconsin. But generally speaking, the younger voter has come back.

to a greater extent than where they were when President Biden was on the top of the ticket, even in March and April prior to the debate performance. Interesting. I mean, he was very, very old, is very, very old. And we saw Democrats saying from the beginning, some two thirds of them, he's too old to be president. But I'm going to give you this. And this is not just Harry Enten of CNN. This has been reflected in some polling since she became president.

the likely person to possibly replace him. And then since he dropped out and endorsed her, we've been seeing lots of polls showing the young people are disillusioned and are leaning either not to voting or more towards Republicans. But here's a report. We aired this soundbite yesterday of Harry Enten on CNN.

Joe Biden won voters under the age of 35 by 21 points. What do we see with Kamala Harris? Well, she's still ahead, but the margin here is significantly less than what we saw with Joe Biden back in 2020. She's up by just nine points. You may make the argument that was better than Biden was doing before he got out, but compared to that Democratic baseline, where Democrats have historically in presidential elections, at least this century,

been carrying that young vote by 20 or more percentage points. She is way down from that. Democrats say they're more motivated to turn out after Biden left the race. Well, we do see a significant portion of Democrats who say yes, 39%. The thing I was interested in was it disproportionately younger voters who said that they were more likely to turn out or more motivated to turn out

And what we see here is it's 42 percent, not a big difference between 42 and 39 percent. So this idea, again, that the vice president has unique potential to dig in and get young voters to turn out. John, it's just not there in the numbers, despite all the Internet memes that are going around. OK, can you speak to that, Spencer? Because it sounds like the Emerson poll does not jibe with that.

Yeah, I would contradict some of that analysis in that the younger voters, the minority voter, it's black and Hispanic votes that are traditionally Democrats. And they're the ones who are sitting on the sideline, not with Biden. They're more likely to come back in line with a Harris on the ticket. And that's what we see in our numbers. It's not necessarily the white vote that's coming back. It's those minority votes that she might wait younger people who are a minority. Is that what you're saying?

Yeah, because minorities are skewed towards the younger demographic. They're the newer voters. Hispanic population are disproportionately younger than the older Hispanics because younger ones are a larger population and they're more likely to be registered to vote. So that's a group. Same thing. The black population is a little bit more dispersed over the ages, but the minority groups generally are on the younger side.

and tend to vote Democrat. And what we've seen is they've essentially come back into the fold for Harris to us to some extent, not to that full extent what we saw with Biden in 2020, but certainly stronger than what we saw just a few weeks ago. Can you put a number on it? He was saying they voted younger people

21 percent for Joe Biden in 2020 and that right now they were leaning towards Harris by only nine percentage points, saying that nine percent was higher than Joe Biden was, you know, a couple of weeks ago versus 2020. But it wasn't gangbusters. It wasn't up to the 2030 that people like Obama could get in the Democrat Party. So can you put a number on what the surge is in these states or just overall based on your polling?

Well, I would agree somewhat to that analysis. It's definitely lower than the 30 or 20 percent, but it really depends on the state. So like the state of Georgia, about 20 percent of their voters are 18 to 29. But in Pennsylvania, it's only like 13 percent of those voters.

So to win in Georgia 60-40 amongst younger voters, that's important. If you're winning 55-45, that's a big 10-point difference amongst 20% of the electorate. So each state is unique. The Midwest is an older population where you're not going to see as many of those young votes. But that young vote is really important in Georgia.

maybe even in North Carolina in the next time we take a look, because that's where younger folks are moving and living. And we'll see if those numbers increase what we were able to see with essentially what Obama was able to do, let's say, in Virginia. We saw that youth vote drop

over the last couple of months. Obama had built that up 16, you know, 12, 16 years ago and pretty much handled it. I would also say that, yeah, we talk about the 18 to 29-year-olds, and that is the youth vote. But where I see the Democrats are really struggling is the 30 to 39-year-olds, the people that came in with Obama and then...

are leaving right now, the Democrats. They're not voting at the same propensity. And so that's where Harris is going to have to bring back more of the vote. Yeah, she's got to win that youth vote and she'll win it to some extent. But then the other vote as well, and I don't mean to jump around, is the new voters.

the new voters have come in and they're breaking for Trump. And we haven't seen that since '72 with Nixon. So if new voters start breaking and they're being registered and coming in for the Republicans, that would shake up obviously the 18 to 29-year-olds. But we do have to go state by state and look at, well, look at Michigan. Those younger voters in Michigan, they're not necessarily going to Trump, but they're going to third parties.

In our polling, you can see that, you know, kind of pretty easily between the head-to-head ballot test and then when we add those third parties. And to me, that would be a problem for Harris. She needs that youth vote out in Michigan to come out for her. And we'll see...

over and it's going to take some time. You know, this is a new candidacy, though she did run for a cup of coffee in 2020. Not many people remember any of that. And so she'll get out there. Voters will have to start hearing some messaging and then we'll see how it kind of shakes out after Labor Day. A couple of other pieces of data. The Economist slash YouGov poll registered voters came out yesterday that showed Trump with 44, Harris with

That poll was taken during the crossover, the 21st through the 23rd. And Biden, I guess it was Pelosi. I don't know. Is it, was it, what was, hold on, I gotta go back and look at my calendar now. So that 21st to the 23rd is this past Sunday through Tuesday. Yeah, so Trump up three. And their poll before that mid-July showed Trump up two over Biden. The other thing that's in here, of course, is Biden.

the assassination attempt, right? Like, I don't even know how you poll for that, but that's another massive event that's factored in, I guess, to some extent in these numbers. So what I'm gleaning right now is these numbers are all over the board. You know, one, one day we get a lesson that she's not exciting to younger voters. The next day we get a lesson that actually she is kind of exciting to some younger voters who are not into Joe Biden.

And the overall numbers seem to, I think in every poll I've seen, show Trump leading by a couple over Kamala, except for one, maybe two. I've only seen one that shows Kamala Harris over Trump. I don't like, what does it mean?

Well, those national numbers are very important, in my opinion, because the Democrats need to win the national vote. So seeing that Trump still has, as you mentioned, two to three point lead in those national numbers, we're also seeing it reflected in the states. Remember, Arizona is a state where Trump loses by a couple of votes and he's up by five points. Georgia, again, a state that he lost by a couple of votes, he's up by two. Pennsylvania, he loses by a point. Michigan, he loses by a couple of points. Now he's up. So

Nationally, he lost last time by four, four and a half. Now he's up two to three. And you see a little bit of that residual down here at the state levels. And as that national number changes over time, maybe, maybe not. It hasn't changed too much in about eight years.

We'll see if voters, you know, switch in and jump on. But I think the biggest takeaway is that Trump is still leading Harris at this time in the state level. And then obviously in these other polls at the national level. Spencer, when you were on last, you explained to us why we should care about that national number, why we shouldn't just be obsessed with the electoral college, the swing state votes. Can you explain that again for audience members who missed it?

Sure. That national number, in my opinion, is a barometer of what's going to happen at the state level. So if we look back in 2016, Clinton wins nationally by about two points. But at the state level, Trump is able to take it by 40,000, 50,000 votes. In 2020,

Biden gets that national number up to four and a half percent. And now he's able to take those state numbers by about 40, 45,000 votes. Now we're into 2024. This is the first time Trump has been up nationally in any of these polls. So it'll be interesting to see if the state numbers hold where maybe it's not a 10,000 vote difference. It might be a little bit higher in some of these states. Uh,

at this time. So that's why it's important to look at that national number. To me, the Democrats need to win the national number because of states like New York and California, which traditionally vote pretty heavy for the Democrats and give them a five to seven million vote advantage just in those two states. And then the Republicans have to carry it back. It's a little different this cycle with Florida being turning more red. But

It's still an important number for all of us to consider. And then I just say, because if you see low numbers in New York and California in terms of turnout for the Democrats, it suggests to you there's a lack of enthusiasm in the Democratic Party nationwide. Yeah, maybe a lower tide. And this is what we saw back in 2016 when the results were coming in. It

It was a little easier back in 2016, 2020. The results were a little tougher to follow. But in 16, you could see those early Kentucky, Indiana, those states were three, four points higher than the polls. And then it was a rising tide around the entire country. And so as we look at that national poll, if Harris is able to bring that back to even or take the lead,

then I think the Democrats have a chance. But if the Republicans are leading the national poll, it's hard to imagine how the Democrats will be able, if they're picking up states like California and New York still by 20 plus points, where their pathway is going to be

But with Harris on the ticket now, there is at least an angle. Because remember, the Democrats lost three electoral votes because of redistricting. So Biden's vote goes from 306 to 303 without even an election happening. And those three electoral votes are really big. That's like Delaware or Vermont's changing to Republican. That's a good point.

And so the map is more in favor of Trump. And that's why when we were talking last time and saying, hey, if Georgia and Arizona, why was it so important this time as opposed to because now you've lost those three electoral votes. So now any one of those blue states, you don't have to knock down two blue states. You only need to knock down one blue state because of the redistricting. And so that's another factor which is different this cycle for us to keep an eye on.

So we're still in late July. Kamala Harris still has the convention, which will continue the quote coronation of her. And she has the announcement of her running mate, which should provide a further boost to her numbers if she chooses somebody acceptable. And, you know, some of these maybe the Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, who people are looking at very closely, obviously swing state.

So in your experience, do conventions and the announcement of a running mate provide a decent boost to a candidate? And is it sustainable? Does it last? Well, just last week, obviously, Trump announced his running mate, but then you had Biden dropping out. And that took a little bit of that momentum away from what the Republicans were doing at their convention. So obviously, the Democrats have their plan. They're going to try to create momentum and

and move the needle in their direction. But the Republicans are gonna come out with some messaging as well and try to circumvent some of that. And that's gonna be interesting to watch over the next four or five weeks as they have to redefine the campaign between these new candidates, or at least between Harris and Trump.

And that's going to be a challenge. And we'll see what the messaging is over that time. And then from there, it'll kind of get into a groove, I presume, on what we're going to be talking about in the fall.

Is there any way of knowing through polls whether there's any backlash to the way this was done within the Democrat Party? You know, that it really was done just by the elites deciding it would be Kamala Harris. And even though the messaging from Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries continues to say, ground up, ground up, not top down, people know. So is that a factor or no? Is that just a media story?

We'll see. Again, these things take time for people to kind of, you know, what happens if it was one of their candidates that didn't get the nomination and maybe that candidate becomes the VP, in which case that will, you know, end some of those sour grapes. But at this point, it looks like the Democrats have kind of rallied around Harris. In our polling, about 80 percent of Democrats in each one of these states wanted Harris out.

10, 15% preferred somebody else. So there could be a little backlash on that within the party. But the idea there is to get them all unified against Trump.

The one issue here is that Trump's favorability is actually stronger than Harris's in a lot of these states. So it's going to be an interesting play. I don't know if that same playbook that the Democrats have used for the last couple of cycles against Trump works as well this cycle. But obviously, time will tell. I know it's strange to think about because what could they possibly say about Donald Trump that hasn't been said already? You know what? Where she's

Not exactly fresh meat. You know, she's been the vice president for four years, but she's a lot fresher. You know, her all of her policy statements and gaffes and so on will be coming back in a very forceful way. You can't really do that to Trump as much or at least it's not going to have the same effect because people lived it.

Yeah, I would agree with you on that. I mean, how much more on Donald Trump could be out there? Harris is now going to be attacked in ways that she hasn't been before. And now we'll see how she responds to some of her policies and some of those ideas that she has out there. And then obviously having to defend this administration's positions. Yeah.

on some of the issues of the day. So right now, it's a honeymoon period. Let me ask you something on that. So there's been a debate since he dropped and endorsed her on whether the Republicans' message has been, it's not the person, it's the policies. That's the problem. That's the reason you shouldn't vote Dem, because it's not the person, it's the policies. But what you seem to be saying is so far-

It actually was the person for at least, you know, some decent share of swing state voters. It was Joe Biden. Yeah, especially the younger vote, the female vote in the minority vote. Those were three major constituents that were leaving Biden and they weren't necessarily going to Trump. They were going to third parties are not going to vote at all. But we could see it. We could see the fallout in these numbers every week.

She's been able to bring that group back in. But remember, they're still trailing. So she'll need a bit of a game changer to continue to get this momentum and then get over Trump in Pennsylvania, Georgia.

Michigan, those are states that the Democrats need to win in order to get to 270. So when we talk about that, because last time you were on, we talked about how it wasn't looking so great for the Democrats. This is with Biden in the Rust Belt and in those sort of blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

And now there's been buzz about how that may or may not be true for Harris. She's better than Biden in those states, probably. But she's going to do she needs to focus not on those states, but on the Sun Belt, which, as far as I understand, is Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. Is that like can you walk me through how this calculus goes and whether it's a good bet for them?

Yeah, it's interesting because it's going to depend on that VP pick. Does she go with Mark Kelly and try to bring Arizona back into the fold? Or does she end up going with maybe a Shapiro or Roy Cooper out of North Carolina, try to bring that back into the fold? But right now, it looks like Arizona is not...

all that competitive. It's leaning towards Trump. And so with that, Biden or the Democrats are at 292 in their electoral votes. Nevada has been a state, the silver state has been leaning towards the Republicans. And so that's something to also keep an eye on.

because there are six electoral votes. And while that doesn't necessarily end it for the Dems, it definitely puts a lot of pressure on them because now you have Pennsylvania. That becomes a battleground. If the Democrats lose Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, Trump wins. If before last week when we were talking, Georgia was more red. And if Georgia had turned red, now it's like,

any one of those states, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, any one of those states that turn would cost the Democrats and give Trump back the White House. And so keeping an eye on Georgia and seeing if Harris is able to kind of create more energy in Atlanta and that Stacey Abrams magic that she's almost had.

But that seems to have been lost down there. So we're going to see if it comes back. North Carolina is a state that they're talking about coming back into play. I thought North Carolina was the furthest away. It was about like seven points for Trump. So we're going to see if the governor, if they go with him out of North Carolina, Cooper, if that brings that that 16 electoral votes, that would change the map because right now it's leaning red. Yeah.

And so each one of these has the pluses and minuses, but what you're looking at is a field where the Democrats are on a little bit of defense, having to defend all of these states. And if Arizona goes and Georgia goes, then it's really a tough map. But if the Democrats with Harris are able to get Georgia back in blue, then there's still that pathway if they carry the Midwest.

But the balance is you're giving up the Midwest. So, right, exactly. Trump's fighting hard for those states. Now we've got three and a half months to go. I know I won't hold you to this because it's just a guess at this point. We don't know, but it's an informed guess. Who would you rather be, Trump or Harris? And how would you place the odds of Trump winning?

Oh, I think you'd rather it be Trump. Harris is coming off the bench right now, replacing the starter, right? You had Joe Biden. He was the president. And you're like, yeah, we're going to put the starter down here for the second half. We're going to bring in our bench player and we're going to have her take over. That's a risky move. I mean, she was brought on the ticket to balance the ticket. You know, there's a reason why these VPs are brought on generally. It's not to necessarily become the next president. So

So we'll see if she's up for that challenge of, you know, the presidential timber that she didn't really have to go through the vetting process of the nominating contest. And we'll see what happens now that we're in the major leagues. And then obviously her vice presidential candidate, how that might impact the race. But at this point, I think the Republicans, they're not as strong as they were a week and a half ago. But I still think that Trump's got an advantage at this time.

Is it was it like 60, 40, 52, 48? What would you where would you put it? We're social sciences. We'll go with 95 percent confidence because that's where the polls are. And then we'll see if it changes. Excellent. Spencer, thank you so much. Love talking to you, Megan. It's my pleasure. Thanks for having us. So interesting, right? The Republicans do not have this in the bag and the race has changed dramatically. They both are going to have to fight very hard and every vote is going to count. Oh,

I'll see you next time. Thanks for joining me. Do you ever think, how can I work this hard and still be in debt? The piles of overdue bills, the threatening phone calls, never having money to do anything. If you are trapped in debt, done with debt can be a way out. They have developed aggressive new strategies to end your debt permanently. Done with debt stands between you and the harassing, annoying bill collectors. Who wants to deal with them?

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