Swing State Polling, U.S. Letter To Israel, North Korea's Ties to Russia
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With less than three weeks to go in the election, the race is narrowing in the swing states, with former President Donald Trump polling slightly ahead. What to keep an eye on in the final weeks of the campaign. I'm A. Martinez, that's Leila Fadl, and this is Up First from NPR News. The U.S. sends a letter warning Israel to increase aid to Palestinians in northern Gaza or possibly risk access to weapons funding.

The letter was not meant as a threat. More on what the U.S. is calling for. And Ukraine says North Korea is sending military personnel to Russia on top of the munitions it already sends. But it's too early to say whether they will be deployed directly on the territory of Ukraine. What's involved in the increasing ties between the two countries? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

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There are now less than three weeks to go in this election, and the presidential race is as tight as ever. Yeah, it sure is. When Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race over the summer, it caused a seismic shift. And while it might appear not much has changed since, the race is shifting at the margins. For more on where the race stands, we're joined by NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Hi, Domenico.

Hey, good morning. Good morning. So you have a new analysis out this morning on NPR.org looking at the electoral college map and how Harris and former President Donald Trump are doing across the country. What did you find in this year's competitive swing states?

Well, it's pretty notable. I mean, when I ran the numbers looking to update where things stand, I found that as of yesterday, for the first time since Harris got into the race, former President Donald Trump is now leading in an average of the seven most closely watched states. That's, of course, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, those three blue wall states, and the Sunbelt states of North Carolina and Georgia, as well as Arizona and Nevada. It is very close, though, all well, well within the margin of error. OK, so when you say close, how close are we talking?

I mean, Trump is up in the seven state average by just get this 0.34 percentage points. It doesn't really get any closer than that. But the movement, given that just a couple of weeks ago, Harris had what appeared to be a small but consistent lead in these blue wall states, two to three points or so, you know, that really those three states would help her across the finish line to win the presidency. The fact that she slipped in those and she slipped in the Sunbelt, it has a lot of Democrats concerned.

So what are you hearing from Democrats and the Harris campaign? Well, officials with the Harris campaign have said that they have always expected a tight race, that their internal polling shows that it's a tight race, that it's always been that. So that's what they're saying. You know, that's why Harris has called herself the underdog, for example. You know, they're not taking anything for granted. They say, but Democratic pollsters don't like what they're seeing because polls in 2016 and 2020 overstated Democratic support.

So does that mean Trump's going to win? Maybe. But polls in 2022, remember, understated Democrat support. Right. Though Trump wasn't on the ballot then. Well, maybe the pollsters have just adjusted and this time it truly is a coin flip race and they have it exactly right. That's possible. We just don't know. So what should we be watching in these last weeks with this race so close?

Yeah, well, Harris, by all accounts, I'll say has run a pretty good race. I mean, she's tacked to the middle on the issues. She's had a good convention, very strong debate against Trump. But the Trump campaign has run a really intensely negative ad campaign looking to define Harris. And it looks like, you know, it's at least stopped her momentum because she's plateaued in the

polls. We've also been seeing some notable demographic shifts I think we should pay attention to underneath all of these very close top lines. You know, Trump appears to be cutting into margins with black and Latino men, adding to his strength with whites without college degrees, and he's blowing out the margins with men. I mean, we may see the widest gender gap in history in any presidential election in this election.

On the other hand, Harris is poised to potentially win seniors. She'd be the first Democrat to do that since 2000. She's also on track to win the largest share of women of any Democrat before her, and she could win record margins for a Democrat with whites who have college degrees.

So we'll have a lot to talk about after Election Day to see what happened. Right now, by all accounts, very close race. What's most important is that the campaigns are trying to mobilize their voters, especially as early voting is ramping up for millions of people across the country. NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thank you, Domenico. You're welcome.

United Nations aid agencies say over the last two weeks, Israel has blocked almost all food aid from getting into northern Gaza, leaving the some 400,000 Palestinians a choice, starve or flee. President Biden has in the past expressed frustration with Israel over the lack of humanitarian aid reaching Palestinian civilians.

Now, his administration has sent a detailed letter to Israel telling the government it has 30 days to increase the food and other assistance going into the territory. For more, we're joined by NPR's Greg Myrie. Hi, Greg. Hi, Leila. So what exactly is in this letter?

Well, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin both signed the letter. It includes more than a dozen bullet points with very specific demands on Israel. For example, it says Israel must allow a minimum of 350 aid trucks to enter Gaza daily and that Israel needs to approve 400 Palestinian drivers who can go back and forth to the border to prevent delays.

Now, several U.S. officials addressed this letter yesterday, including John Kirby of the National Security Council. The letter was not meant as a threat. The letter was simply meant to reiterate the sense of urgency we feel about the need for an increase, dramatic increase in humanitarian assistance.

Okay, before we get into the sort of stipulations around this deadline, you know, a lot of what's going on in Gaza has been overshadowed by the battles between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. So if you could just bring us up to speed on what's happening in Gaza and really the dire situation in the north.

Yeah, sure. Israel has carried out a large military operation against Hamas in northern Gaza, much of it focused on a longtime Hamas stronghold, the Jabalia refugee camp on the edge of Gaza City. Now, at the same time, aid groups say Israel has effectively cut off food assistance.

The U.N. says no food deliveries have reached northern Gaza for the past 12 days and conditions are getting increasingly desperate for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians there. And the U.S. says that the amount of aid that went into Gaza last month was lower than in any other month since the war began a year ago.

So does this mean the U.S. will cut weapons shipments to Israel if there's not a dramatic increase in aid over the next month? Well, Leila, the letter does not say explicitly what would happen, though it does cite a law barring U.S. military aid to countries that block U.S. humanitarian aid. John Kirby says the intent is not to punish Israel. The goal is to see much more aid flowing into Gaza on a regular basis.

The U.S. says it sent a similar letter in April, and Israel responded by letting more aid into the territory. Now, U.S. officials say this letter was prompted by this drop in aid to Gaza, but we can't ignore the political calendar. The Biden administration has been reluctant to act against Israel in the run-up to the presidential election.

This letter gives Israel 30 days to act, and that would take us to mid-November after the election when President Biden may feel he has more room to act. Now, you have this sort of warning from the U.S. that might risk some military aid to Israel, but we should note the U.S. is also sending additional military support to Israel. What can you tell us about that?

Yeah, according to the Pentagon, the U.S. is setting up a very advanced air defense system known as THAAD. This would help Israel defend against any new ballistic missile strikes by Iran. We know it takes about 100 U.S. troops to operate one of these THAAD batteries.

Israel keeps saying it will respond to the Iranian missile attack from October 1st. However, it increasingly looks like this will be a limited response. We're hearing from officials that Israel may target military sites, but not oil or nuclear facilities. That's NPR's Greg Myrie. Thank you, Greg. Sure thing, Layla. Thank you.

Ukraine says its military intelligence has evidence that North Korea isn't just sending weapons to Russia to assist in the war on Ukraine. That's right. North Korea may also be sending soldiers. Now, the Kremlin is denying the claim, even as Russia received large shipments of ammunition from North Korea, some of which has been produced just this year. With me now is NPR's Joanna Kakisis in Kyiv. Thanks for being here.

Thanks for having me. So let's start with Ukraine's claim that North Korea is sending soldiers to Russia. How credible is this claim? Well,

Well, the Ukrainians say it's credible. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians all about it in a video address earlier this week. And we spoke to Andriy Kovalenko from Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. He was briefed about the developments by military intelligence. He told us Russia, whom he calls the enemy, is training North Korean military personnel on Russian territory, but are keeping them inside Russia for now.

As of now, the enemy's plans are to reinforce conscripts and border guards in the border regions of Russia. But it's too early to say whether they will be deployed directly on the territory of Ukraine. Now, the Kremlin denies this is all happening and calls it, quote, an information hoax.

Okay, so Russia is saying this isn't true, but Russia and North Korea do have a military alliance basically, right? So what does that involve? So, Laila, that means that the two countries can coordinate to, quote, eliminate an immediate threat of armed aggression. South Korea says North Korea has been sending thousands of shipments of munitions to Russia in violation of sanctions.

There's also evidence that North Korea is making missiles to order for Russia, and those missiles are being used to attack Ukraine. We spoke about this with Damien Spleters of Conflict Armament Research, which is a UK-based organization that tracks the supply of weapons and ammunition in armed conflicts.

And Sleater says his group discovered the remnants of four North Korean-manufactured ballistic missiles, known as the Hwasong-11, in Ukraine. First of all, he says this seems to confirm an ongoing weapons transfer. The second thing that this finding illustrates is that there's a very tight window between production, transfer and use. He says the missile component found was likely made around March of this year and that the Russians used the missile in August.

Okay, so what's the connection between these missiles and the North Korean military personnel that Ukraine says are in Russia?

So Kovalenko from Ukraine's National Defense and Security Council says North Korea is likely sending military engineers to monitor these missiles. There's evidence that some of these engineers may have been killed in a Ukrainian strike in occupied eastern Ukraine. Sleater says these engineers could be assessing how these missiles are launching. It would make sense for people involved in the production of those missiles to be close to where they are being used and assess how effective they are.

in order to make improvements to those missiles. Now, Ukrainian officials fear that troops could follow these military engineers who are likely officers. And if that happens, they say it could lead to a Russian breakthrough on the front line. So does this change anything for the West's calculation? Does it now force the West to get more involved in defending Ukraine?

Well, Zelensky sure hopes so, and so do many Ukrainians who question the West's commitment to Ukraine as Russia continues its war machine despite sanctions. President Zelensky keeps telling the West we will lose this war unless there's a change in strategy.

And he, as well as several military analysts, say Western partners give Ukraine just enough support to survive, but not to win. And because this is a war of attrition, Russia has the advantage. It has a bigger military arsenal and it has like four times the population of Ukraine. It also has North Korean weapons and maybe even North Korean soldiers at its disposal in the future. NPR's Joanna Kukicis. Thank you, Joanna. You're welcome.

And that's up first for Wednesday, October 16th. I'm Leila Faldin. And I'm A. Martinez. How about listening to Consider This from NPR? Legendary journalist Bob Woodward has been chronicling the behind-the-scenes happenings of presidential administrations for nearly five decades. His latest book details the work of the Biden administration's national security team as it navigates two wars in two different parts of the world. Listen to Consider This from NPR.

And today's episode of Up First was edited by Dana Farrington, Andrew Sussman, Rylan Barton, Lisa Thompson, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Paige Waterhouse, Nia Dumas, and Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott, and our technical director is Zach Coleman. Join us again tomorrow.

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