cover of episode What Happens If Biden Resigns? | Facts Ep. 14

What Happens If Biden Resigns? | Facts Ep. 14

2024/7/19
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本·沙皮罗探讨了美国总统乔·拜登可能面临的三种情况:退出民主党提名、辞职或去世。这三种情况都将对美国政治产生重大影响,包括对民主党的冲击、第25修正案的作用以及社会和法律层面上的影响。 首先,如果拜登退出民主党提名但仍担任总统,这将对民主党造成政治上的严重打击。虽然没有机制强迫拜登退出,但如果他主动退出,承诺支持他的代表可以自由支持其他候选人。这将导致党内激烈竞争,并可能削弱选民对民主党的信心。 其次,如果拜登辞职,根据第25修正案,副总统哈里斯将立即接任总统。这一过程在历史上已有先例,例如尼克松辞职后福特接任。哈里斯将提名新的副总统,需要参众两院批准。虽然从宪法角度来看,权力过渡是直接的,但哈里斯的低支持率可能会导致公众反应不一。 最后,如果拜登去世,哈里斯也将立即接任总统。这将导致全国哀悼,并需要迅速稳定局势。哈里斯将面临巩固支持、向选民展现清晰愿景的挑战,这将对2024年大选产生重大影响。历史上的例子,如杜鲁门接替罗斯福,表明了在国家危机时期保持稳定和连续性的重要性。

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What happens if Joe Biden withdraws from the Democratic nomination? What happens if he steps down from office? What happens if Joe Biden dies in office? Dealing with everything we have to do with, uh, look. Each of these scenarios is quite possible, and each carries significant constitutional, legal, and social implications. So let's dissect these possibilities one by one.

Let's first consider the scenario where Joe Biden steps down from the Democratic nomination but remains president. This would be politically the worst case scenario for the Democrats. He would leave the next nominee carrying Joe Biden's baggage without ever assuming the power of the presidency. But how exactly would that happen?

Well, first, let's make one thing clear. There is no real mechanism for forcing Joe Biden off the ticket if he doesn't want to go. The so-called faithful delegate rule was put in place by the Democratic National Committee in 1980 to prevent delegates pledged to then-President Jimmy Carter from defecting to Senator Ted Kennedy. Current Democratic National Committee language says, quote,

of those who elected them. Now, theoretically, that could be interpreted to allow delegates to abandon Biden, but that is super unlikely. If, however, Joe Biden does withdraw his candidacy before the DNC, the delegates pledged him would be free to support another candidate.

Now, he could recommend his delegates follow another of the candidates like Kamala Harris, but they're not bound to his wishes. They don't have to do what he wants them to do. The DNC's rules allow for a conscience clause where delegates can vote their conscience if a nominee steps down. If the delegates are freed, intense lobbying and campaigning will follow. The Democratic National Committee has established rules for such scenarios. If Biden steps down as presumptive nominee after securing the nomination, but before the election, say, you know, like this week, the

the DNC would convene to select a new nominee. That process would involve consultation with Democratic governors, congressional leaders, party officials to ensure a smooth transition. This decision could lead to significant internal conflicts within the Democratic Party going all the way to the convention in Chicago, ironically. Debates would arise of whether Vice President Harris should be the nominee or if other candidates should be considered. The party would also need to manage the optics of Joe Biden stepping down as nominee, which would most likely lead to disarray and could weaken voter confidence in the Democrats generally.

Historic incidences, such as when Hubert Humphrey became the Democratic nominee in 1968 after Lyndon Baines Johnson decided not to run, show how critical the party's handling of such transitions can be.

The new nominee would face the challenge of quickly building a campaign, fundraising and establishing a platform which could put them at a disadvantage considering that there's not a lot of time left before the election. Kamala Harris does have an advantage here since she would presumably use the same campaign infrastructure as the Biden-Harris campaign, and legally she can do that. Ensuring a smooth and transparent transition would be

would be crucial to maintaining voter confidence for the Democrats as well. The political dynamics within the party would be really, really complex. This truncated campaign period between now and the convention would require rapid mobilization and strategic planning to unify the party and appeal to the broader electorate. The nominee's ability to quickly establish something that resembles, at least, a clear and compelling vision would be important. This would involve not only addressing current issues, but also articulating a forward-looking agenda that voters actually care about. Good luck with that, Democrats!

The current Democratic possibilities have relatively low name recognition other than Kamala Harris. And, you know, people don't like Kamala Harris. In fact, Kamala Harris has bad poll numbers. That's one of the main reasons Democrats have been so hesitant to try to force Biden out. Next, we'll explore what happens if Joe Biden steps down, not only from the nomination, but also from the presidency. This is a less likely scenario because Biden seems unlikely to give up the power, but it should be discussed nonetheless.

especially because it's really difficult to make the case Biden isn't well enough to be the nominee, but he's still well enough to be the most powerful person on the planet. Dude's sundowning at like 4 p.m. According to the Presidential Succession Act in the 25th Amendment, if Biden resigns the office of the presidency, then Vice President Harris immediately assumes the presidency. The process is clear-cut. It has historical precedence. When Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 amidst Watergate, for example, Vice President Gerald Ford became president. Of the office on which I'm about to enter. So help me God. So help me God. Thank you.

Ford then nominated Nelson Rockefeller as his vice president, and Rockefeller was confirmed by Congress. The transition is straightforward from a constitutional perspective as well. The 25th Amendment ensures a smooth transfer of power, preventing any potential vacuum in leadership. Newly assumed President Harris would nominate a VP who would have to be confirmed by a majority vote in both the House and the Senate. That process is designed to ensure continuity and stability in the executive branch. Furthermore, the 25th Amendment provides a mechanism for dealing with presidential disabilities. If Biden were to step down due to health reasons, the

This amendment ensures Harris can assume the duties of the presidency seamlessly. This aspect of the amendment was added after the assassination of JFK to address potential gaps in leadership continuity. You might think you're getting everything your body needs from that green juice that you've been chugging down every morning. You, however, are likely not. Most people still fall short of the essential nutrients that their bodies need to function at their best. My good friend and colleague, Christine, who happens to be a triathlete, Chelsea's mom with a toddler, has been

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Now, politically, Harris transitioning to the presidency would shift the dynamics within the Democratic Party and the broader political landscape. Her policy priorities and leadership style do differ from Joe Biden's. It would more likely lead to changes in administrative focus. Public reaction would vary. A lot of people would, of course, celebrate the historic first female president. Others could react with skepticism based on the fact that, again, she has an incredibly low approval rating of 38%.

Historical context, like LBJ's assumption of the presidency after JFK's assassination in 1963, shows really mixed reactions to sudden changes in leadership. Johnson's leadership during a turbulent time does provide a blueprint for how Harris might navigate the initial phase of her presidency.

Harris would also face the challenge of building her credibility as the new president. Obviously, she has significant shortcomings. Her inability in the past to manage crises, implement policies, maintain bipartisan cooperation. She, again, has real problems as a politician. We are going to the border. We've been to the border. So this whole thing about the border, we've been to the border. We've been to the border. You haven't been to the border.

Harris would then, of course, become the presumptive Democratic nominee because it's one thing to toss away the VP. It's another thing to toss away the president. That would influence voter perception and party strategy. Historical precedents, such as when President Ford took over from Nixon and then later faced an election challenge from Jimmy Carter, show that new presidents can face immediate and significant electoral hurdles. Although that election ended up very, very close and Gerald Ford almost won.

Lastly, let's discuss the most somber scenario, the death of a sitting president. If Joe Biden were to pass away, God forbid, Vice President Kamala Harris would immediately assume the presidency as mandated by the 25th Amendment. Again, the Presidential Succession Act ensures no gap in leadership. This legal framework has been tested in historical contexts, such as when Vice President Harry Truman assumed the presidency in the 19th century.

after the death of FDR in 1945. Truman's swift transition helped maintain stability during a critical period of World War II, demonstrating the importance of these constitutional provisions. The death of a sitting president always leads to a period of national mourning and a focus on maintaining stability and continuity. Presumably, Kamala Harris would at least attempt to accomplish just that. The sudden change in leadership would, of course, totally upend the 2024 election, altering campaign strategies. The Democratic Party would undoubtedly then unify behind Harris in order to maintain electoral momentum.

There tends to be a rally around the new president's effect if a past president dies. The public tends to, again, have a lot of sympathy for the new president. While some, however, might rally around a new president, Kamala Harris, who lived in a very polarized time, others might question her legitimacy or her readiness. Harris's ability to effectively manage that period of transition, again, might be difficult for her. She would need to consolidate support quickly and present a compelling vision to the electorate. Again, there have been some bumpy transitions, Kennedy to LBJ. Now, LBJ was a really expert legislator.

He'd been master of the Senate, obviously, as Robert Caro suggested. Johnson's ability to leverage his political experience and navigate the complexities of the transition helped him secure a vast victory in the 1964 election. Well, as the days tick by, it becomes more and more possible, likely even, for one of these scenarios to happen. We'll have to hold on to the lap bar and see where this roller coaster takes us.

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