Ep. 2078 - ELECTION DAY!! My Prediction And More
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Well, folks, we here at the Ben Shapiro Show, we're going to jump into all the news in just a moment. First, here is a message from all of us here at Daily Wire.

In 2016, Donald Trump won by just 77,000 votes across three states. In 2004, just one state, Ohio, decided the presidency by about 118,000 votes. In 2000, just 537 votes in Florida decided the presidency. In 1960, John F. Kennedy won by fewer than 120,000 votes. In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes won by just one electoral vote. You cast it? Shut up. You're very old.

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tonight. Well, folks, as I've said, you need to go out and vote today if you have not already. So I voted early because obviously I have to be in Nashville. That is not where I'm registered. But you need to vote if you have not today. This election is just too important. You need to vote because there are serious things at stake, as I discussed yesterday on the show. There is a broader question at stake today in this election, though, whether we're a nation that actually wants to be dynamic or whether we just want to continue our slide into senescence.

Are we a nation that actually wants an economy of innovation and entrepreneurship and building? Or do we want an economy that's about redistribution, stagnation, punishment of success? Are we a nation that wants a foreign policy of strength with powerful allies and our enemies in retreat? Or are we a nation that would like to abandon the world stage

handing power to our enemies as the light goes out. Are we a nation that wants to build on the roots of family and community, or are we a country that wants to trade the institutions that actually make life worth living, family, community, in favor of a top-town dictation from a self-appointed elite who believe that their untried values ought to supplant time-tested virtues? But most of all, you need to vote because you actually do owe it to both your ancestors and your progeny to do so. So here's the thing. Democracy, in the general sense, is totally and utterly unnatural.

The earliest beginnings of democracy were in ancient Athens, but of course the vote was heavily restricted. The same was true in ancient Rome. Modern democracy in the West has its roots in Magna Carta and the Estates General of France.

but actually didn't reach full fruition in the way we think of democracy until probably the glorious revolution of 1688 in Great Britain. See, here's the thing about democracy. It takes centuries to inculcate values of democracy, the rights of the people to be free of arbitrary government, which is the thing that lies at the heart of Western democracy. We are not subjects. We are citizens. We are citizens with rights and with duties, and we

And we build social fabric together in order to share those duties and to enable the functioning of those rights. And then governments are instituted by people in order to protect those rights and to enshrine those duties.

This idea lies at the heart of the American experiment. It's also why we have checks and balances, why we are small are Republicans and not just pure Democrats. The founders you see were pretty cautious about democracy. They knew its promises. They knew its perils. They knew the power of the mob. That's why the single most important paragraph ever written on the American system can be found in Federalist 51 by James Madison, the framer of the Constitution. He said this, quote,

What is government itself but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this. You must first enable the government to control the governed, and the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is no doubt the primary control on the government, but experience has taught mankind the necessity of authority.

of auxiliary precautions. So the founders instituted checks and balances because Madison was right. But Madison was also right that in the end, the primary control on the government is a dependence on the judgment of the people. And that's the thing we all have to agree on in order for our democracy, you know, things that all our politicians like to talk about. Democracy has to work. It can only work if we agree on that central principle. This kind of struck me last week. I was standing in line with my wife to vote in Florida. I

And it was a long line. People of every age and race were in the line. But everybody was there because they agreed to this really weird common principle that we would abide by the collective decision of all of us about who would represent us for things like the presidency, for Congress, for the Senate. That's weird. It's unnatural. It's amazing. We abided by the common notion that we actually share a nation together. And then if our side lost, we understand the next time we might still win because our neighbors are persuadable and we know them.

that we're willing to delegate some of the biggest stakes decisions in life to a system that actually values the opinions of our fellow citizens. This is the thing. Democracy, small d democracy, only works when both sides are invested in the bargain. If one side always believes they're going to lose, they're not going to buy in. They'd revolt. If you believe you're in a permanent minority and that your rights are constantly being trampled and there's no prospect of victory, that's when democracy breaks down. Jefferson says in the Declaration of Independence that government derives its just powers from the consent of the governed.

That consent really only continues if we all believe enough in one another and in our system. Now, we all know that system is fraying. For sure, that's true. For a thousand reasons, it's fraying. It's the media, because of our politicians, because of our institutions. There are a thousand reasons. But it's not breaking down today.

Everybody's going to the polls. You're going to the polls. I already went. Thanks to the checks and balances of the framers who understood both the value and the dangers of democracy, we can rest assured that if the other person wins, yes, things will get worse, but we will survive. Contrary to popular opinion, this will not be the last election. It truly will not be the last election. Now, with that said, this vote matters more than most.

Because while this will not be the last election in the United States of America, it is an inflection point. We can continue down a path of polarizing the country by race, sex and identity, or we can reverse that process and see each other as individuals. We can continue to tear apart the country by indicting each other as oppressors and pretending that we are the oppressed. Or we can together seize the future and recognize that if we make the right decisions, we'll succeed.

We can continue to retreat from the world, or we can remember that America always was and still remains the last best hope of mankind. So today, you absolutely should vote. You should vote because you can, and because that is an immense privilege earned by the blood of others and still denied to most of humanity today as we sit here and talk. And you should vote because you should, because your vote in this election, a tight election like this one, is certainly going to matter. All right, so where do we stand on Election Day?

Well, there are a couple of theories as to how this race is going to go. One theory is how Trump can win, and one theory is how Kamala can win. I think it is fairly safe to say that Donald Trump has the advantage in the so-called Sunbelt states. North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada's probably dead even. The Sunbelt states are probably in Trump's corner at this point. Politico is even acknowledging as much today. They say that basically she is relegated to the Rust Belt.

They say that she is stronger than it appears, perhaps, in blue wall states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But she's fallen apart, basically, in some of the Sunbelt states because her coalition is different. According to Politico, Trump's gains with voters of color looks real. That has required Harris to dip into traditionally Republican voter pools like whites and older voters. Now, normally, this would be a good indicator for Trump, right? If you told me before this election cycle, Republicans are going to win an outside share of Hispanics and black voters, and that

Kamala is going to have to try to appeal to old white people to get out the vote for her. I would say advantage Trump. And I think it is still advantage Trump today. Politico says if months of handicapping are right, the election will come down once again to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That's Harris's most likely path to victory. Polling has shown Harris's strength with white voters, especially in northern states. That's why even his national polls show a tie on the eve of the election. Her path has remained clear if difficult.

Thanks to a slight improvement over 2020 among black voters, Trump will likely chip away a little in those states' big cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. Harris is hoping that isn't enough. They say the Sunbelt states look harder for her. That's Politico's take, not mine. Okay, so that's Politico that's pretty down on her prospects in this race. It is also worth noting that there are fundamentals to this race that pre-exist the actual election cycle. So James Freeman, writing for the Wall Street Journal today, he points out that Republicans have really ramped up voter registration in recent years.

In the New York Times, Nate Cohen summing up this trend, he said Republicans rapidly gaining ground across the country. You know, it's quote all of the battleground states with party registration, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina will probably have more registered Republicans than Democrats in November, even if Harris wins with support from growing ranks of the unaffiliated. In the longer sweep of the last 16 years, this is an enormous change. Emily Crane over at the New York Post quotes Democrats.

Republican pollster Alex Castellanos will explain on Fox News what I think they're missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. 31 states have voter registration by party. 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans. Now, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin do not register voters by party. However, if you look at Pennsylvania, the terrain there seems to be getting more friendly to him all the time, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Charles Thompson for the Harrisburg Patriot News says the Donald Trump era, for whatever else it has been, has proven to be a great party building period for the Republican Party. There are now more registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania than ever before. The party now numbers about three point seven million. Democrats are still the largest party in number in Pennsylvania. But the Democratic Party's two hundred eighty thousand vote lead in voter registration is down from one point two million at the height of the Barack Obama fever in 2008.

The margin for Democrats in voter registration heading into 2020 was almost 700,000. So Republicans have made some significant gains in a lot of these swing states in terms of voter registration. And we do have some early voting data. And again, with all the provisos, which we'll get into in a moment,

They're still interesting. We'll get to that momentarily. First, every year when Apple releases the new iPhone, the big carriers play those same old games. Sign your life away for the next two years. Get a free iPhone. You don't have to fall for this. With Pure Talk, you can get great savings on the new iPhone 16, and you can still get an affordable data plan that fits your needs on America's most dependable 5G network. How would I know? Well, because I actually have done this. I have the new iPhone 16.

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December 31st, 2024. See if your company qualifies for the special offer at oracle.com slash Shapiro. Again, that's oracle.com slash Shapiro for the special deal. Once more, oracle.com slash Shapiro. Okay, so taking a look at this early voting data, and again, got to take it with a grain of salt because the big question is how much of this is cannibalizing the high propensity voters, right? People like me who normally vote on election day, I voted early instead. I can't vote twice. So if I voted early, that's not like the Republicans won additional votes. But again,

Suffice it to say that if the flip were true, meaning if Republicans were really, really lagging badly in the early voting,

Democrats would already be calling the election. So there is an indicator here, and it is that Republicans are, in fact, doing better than expected. So Elon Musk, a little bit earlier today, tweeted out the R minus D early vote deltas in the swing states. So again, that would be like the change from 2020 to 2024 in the difference in early voting between Republicans and Democrats, because Democrats just destroyed Republicans in early voting in 2020, which is why you saw this giant blue shift

This sort of tidal wave that happened late at night on election night in 2020. Trump won the day of, which was expected. And then all the mail-ins came in and it turns out that every Democrat and their dead grandmother had voted. And so that wiped away whatever leads Trump had in many of those swing states like Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and all the rest. Okay, so here is the difference. Okay, so in terms of Republicans overperforming 2020, in Arizona, Republicans are overperforming 2020 by 200,000 votes.

In Georgia, they're overperforming their mail-in performance of 2020 by 451,000 votes. In Michigan, they're overperforming their 2020 performance by 136,000 votes. In Nevada, by 83,000 votes. In North Carolina, by 290,000 votes. In Pennsylvania, which is the biggie, because if Trump wins Pennsylvania, this election is effectively over. In Pennsylvania,

Republicans versus Democrats. Democrats had over a million more mail-in votes, early votes, than Republicans did in 2020. As of yesterday, as of last night, their advantage was just 423,000. Now, I had heard some rumors that Democrats really need a firewall of maybe 500,000 votes. Now, and that's speculative.

Bottom line is Democrats are underperforming. Republicans are overperforming in some of the early mail-in voting. That is a change of 600,000 votes. That's a big change in terms of Republicans actually taking advantage of the mail-in and early voting procedures in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Same story. There's been a delta of about 83,000 votes. Those are all very good numbers for the Republicans. So what does that mean? That means that if the vote goes like it did in Pennsylvania day of this time, Trump wins.

So that means get out and vote. Get out and vote. So you can see there's a democratic sort of plan right now that relies on some wish casting. That wish casting is that there is a shy Kamala vote. I think this is really, really unlikely. Truly unlikely.

I think that if you were going to make, if you're going to steal a man a case for Kamala Harris and make a strong case for why Kamala Harris is going to win, the strongest case for Kamala Harris goes something like this. Pollsters have it wrong. The reason that pollsters have it wrong is because they are jogging their voter screen. So when pollsters do their polls, there are two ways that you can do a poll. One is a registered voters poll. You just take a baseline of the registered voting public and then you plug it in the machine, you get a number.

That's actually how Ann Seltzer does her polls over in Iowa. Just registered voters. Then you have what are called likely voter screens. A likely voter screen, that is pollsters trying to read the tea leaves. That's trying to figure out whether this guy, like what percentage of black voters are actually going to show up on election day. Registered voters is...

We kind of know how many registered voters there are. We'll take a poll of all those registered voters and we'll throw it out. But a likely voter screen means that you can game the system. It means that you can say, okay, well, we think that only 55% of black voters are going to actually show up to the polls this time. Or maybe we think 80% of black voters are going to show up to the polls this time. And so you change how many likely voters you think are going to show up. So the case for Kamala is that the pollsters are so afraid of missing votes

in the direction they missed in 2016 and 2020. Namely, they underestimated Trump's support. They're so scared of underestimating Trump's support that they're actually overestimating Trump's support in order to overcompensate because the incentive structure is that if they once again underestimate Trump's support and then Trump wins, they're afraid that they are out of business, that everybody's gonna be super angry at them. Whereas if they underestimate Kamala's support and then she wins, the Democrats are gonna be so happy that they're not gonna care and the rest is history.

There's no question there's some poll grouping going on. So that theory is not totally wild. There's no, I mean, as Nate Silver points out, if you really thought this was a 48-48 election, the average would be 48-48, but not every poll would be 48-48. Think about that for a second. Normally the way that you do a poll average is you have some that say like 47-44 and some that say 47-44 the other way, and then you average them and it's a dead race. It's a dead even race. But this is a weird race that suggests, again, that the pollsters are screwing around with the numbers because, again,

The average and the actual polls are the same. Every poll is showing 47, 47, 48, 48. And that means somebody is gaming the system. We just don't know what direction. So if you're a Harris supporter, your hope is that they're actually overestimating Trump's support levels in these likely voter screens. The other thing that they are trying to promote is this idea that there's a shy Harris vote. I think this is crazy. I honestly think this is a crazy suggestion.

Kamala Harris's team, by the way, thinks this is true. This is why they've run out two separate ads, one to men and one to women, both saying the same thing. Remember, we played them on the show. There was the ad to women that says, you know, you don't have to tell your husband who you're voting for in that voting booth. You get in there, you wink at the other ladies, and then you vote feminist. And then there's the one to men where men look at each other and then they secretly vote for Kamala.

I don't even know what the logic here is. Honestly, do you know a single human being who is shy in supporting Kamala Harris? Who are these people? Seriously, who are these people? There was a shy Trump vote in 2016, 2020, because there was social ostracism attached to voting for Donald Trump. What is the negative incentive structure that would cause you to be a shy Kamala voter in, say, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin? That is such, it's such tripe. It's such a silly argument. Again, the Wall Street Journal is positing maybe that's the case.

When pollsters set out to explain how they missed Trump's electoral college victory in 2016, says the Wall Street Journal, and their underestimation of Trump's strength once again in 2020, one thought was that some of the candidates' supporters were wary of civic institutions and so were masking their true voting intentions. They were dubbed shy Trump voters. The opposite might now be the case, some campaign strategists think. Pressure in some communities to support Trump is so strong that voters who don't back him, particularly the women, might be the ones who this year are hesitant to reveal their true intentions.

Mark Putnam, Democratic ad maker, says, quote, I don't have direct evidence of this, but in this highly contentious environment, it's not implausible for there to be significant percentages of women voters who are not just hiding their intended Harris vote from significant others, but also from pollsters. No, that's trash. I'm sorry. That is not happening. If that happens, I will eat my shoe, man. That is super duper unlikely.

More likely that pollsters are overestimating Trump's support because they don't want to get it wrong in the same direction they got it wrong in 2016, 2020. The idea that there are shy Harris. Have you met a Kamala Harris supporter? These are the least shy people about their votes on Earth. These are people like sit by their phones waiting for a pollster to call to tell you how much they love the brat and the joy of Kamala Harris. So I don't buy that at all.

Nonetheless, that is the line that so many in the Democratic Party are taking. It sounds like desperation. It kind of stinks of desperation. Monica Hess has a piece of the Washington Post positing the same thing. Quote, marriage and the shy Harris voter. Some anti-Trumpers have a theory about the wives of Trump loving men.

With American democracy facing a fourth down, I can't stop thinking about a new ad produced by the Lincoln Project. In it, two middle America couples arrive at their polling place. The grip and grin husbands affirm to each other they're going to vote for him. As for their wives, she doesn't like him, but she's voting for him. One man tells the other, same with mine. His buddy says approvingly, but silly husbands.

OK, first of all, the Lincoln Project knows as much about lady as they do about age barriers for sexual relationships, allegedly. So, you know, that's that is what it is. But again, this idea that women are quietly voting against the will of their overbearing patriarchal husband is so stupid. I just I don't see it at all. I don't. So, again, if you got to put money on it, every pollster has this thing that even Nate Silver's got a debt, even Harry Enten's got a debt, even real politics has that even.

I'm going to say slight advantage Trump. And if I had to put out my map right now, in fact, I'm just going to do that right now. Okay, so I'll put it out on the line. Yep, means nothing. I could be totally wrong. I think there is a solid chance that the polls are underestimating Trump support again. And the reason I say this is because if you are a Trump supporter and a pollster calls you, how often you hang up the phone? Probably depends on the pollster. But if it's New York, if the New York Times, Sienna calls me for a poll, I ain't staying on the phone.

I'm not. If you're a low propensity voter, you are certainly not staying on the phone. And Trump has a gift at getting out low propensity voters. So here is best case scenario for Donald Trump. And I think it actually is going to materialize tonight. OK, if you vote, if you get your ass out there and vote.

So here's best case scenario. Trump takes all the Sunbelt states. He takes North Carolina. He takes Georgia. I think both of those are very likely. Arizona is very likely. I think that he sneaks Nevada in there. The early voting in Nevada looks very, I understand John Ralston is suggesting that he can pinpoint the vote down to 30,000 votes in Nevada. I have serious questions about whether that is the case. But I think that Trump's durability in Nevada throughout this entire race, he's basically led in Nevada almost wire to wire.

I'd be a little surprised if he doesn't win Nevada. And then you get to the Rust Belt states. I think Trump, you ready for this? I think Trump's going to win all of them. I think Trump's going to win all of them. And the reason I say that I think that Trump is going to win all of them is because if you look at places like Ohio, they are trending redder. Those Rust Belt states are trending red. They're not trending blue. There's certain states that I didn't give to Trump in this map. I didn't give Trump Virginia. Virginia is trending blue. It is not trending red.

Virginia is going to look more like Colorado than it looks like Ohio. Ohio used to be a swing state. Florida used to be a swing state. They're no longer swing states. They're solidly red. Virginia looks more like Colorado used to be a swing state has now moved blue. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those states look more like Ohio than they do like Virginia, meaning I believe that they are trending red. Hey, there's some support for this. Real clear politics right now has Trump up point four in Pennsylvania.

They have Harris up 0.5 in Michigan. Do you think there's going to be heavy Harris turnout in Michigan? How's that Detroit vote looking? How about Dearborn? There can be big votes for Kamala Harris. What's the enthusiasm level for Kamala in Michigan day of? And as for Wisconsin, Wisconsin is a notoriously difficult state to poll. I think Eric Hovde may actually drag Trump up the ticket.

I think Eric Hovde, who's the senatorial candidate in Wisconsin, who is running extremely strong in Wisconsin right now, I think Hovde wins that race. By the way, I think that Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania wins that race based on the early voting numbers. Again, this is all reading tea leaves. It could all go the other way. But if there's as much of a polling error as I think there may be with regard to Trump levels of support, again, so much of this is anecdotal. You just walk around, you see many more people who are willing to say out loud the thing they were not willing to say out loud in 2016 and 2020.

I think Trump has a shot at New Hampshire, right? New Hampshire right now in the real core politics polling average, New Hampshire, Harris is only leading there by three and a half points in New Hampshire. And the Rasmussen Reports poll from late October has dropped one.

So that is a small state. And if Dixville Notch, which is the little town that votes early every year, they vote at midnight on election day, and then they explain their vote. That town went in 2020, five, nothing, Biden, Trump. It's like six people. This year, it went three, three. If that's the case, outside shot at New Hampshire. And if that were the case, Donald Trump would walk away with the election. So that is the most optimistic case. Not going to say it's going to happen, but...

May as well put my prediction on the board. That is my prediction for tonight, because again, I think that there is maybe I'm too optimistic. I know. Unlike me, I'm like with every proviso, but only true if you get out and vote right now. In just a second, we'll get to the closing arguments of the candidates. First, you know what's fascinating about the left? They're always trying to erase traditional American culture. It's very weird. But guess what? Real American traditions like Western boots ain't going nowhere. And speaking of Western boots, let me tell you about to Kovacs.

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One more day left in one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime, and momentum is on our side. Momentum is on our side. Can you feel it? We have momentum, right?

Because our campaign has tapped into the ambitions and the aspirations and the dreams of the American people. We are optimistic and excited about what we will do together. And we here know it is time for a new generation of leadership in America. Well, I mean, it's always weird. Joyce has new generation of leadership in America, neglecting the fact that she's the current vice president of the United States.

Also, for all the brat and all the joy, she's just so awkward. She's just straight from Veep. Here she was last night at the same rally, failing to get a chant started. Man, that's not even how...

For a chant to work, it has to be rhythmic. That's not good. My favorite moment, I think, from the closing of her campaign is when she actually attempted to stage a door knocking. I thought this was quite amusing. So she was going door to door in Pennsylvania trying to show how she was putting in the boot leather. And it didn't go amazing. In fact, she shows up and on a hot mic, she is caught speaking to voters and asking them to go back inside their door so that she can be caught on tape door knocking them.

You want us to go back inside and pretend that we're just a stage doorknob? Well, when that didn't work, she just bust down the door and then killed their pet squirrel or something.

So that was exciting stuff. Meanwhile, President Trump, he was also claiming momentum as the evening closed last night. Here was President Trump last night. You know, we have a massive lead. I don't even like telling you that, to be honest with you. We have a massive lead. First time ever a Republican was leading by a lot in early. But it didn't happen. The Republicans would always be way behind. They believe in going on Election Day. So we're going to let you go on Election Day. Right. But they waited till the end always.

Democrats would always have hundreds of thousands of votes and then you either catch them or you don't. You never know what's going to happen. But Republicans have never been in the lead and not like this. It's a big number. So we have to just get out. You know, the ball is in our hand. We're at the two yard line, maybe the one yard line.

But it's in our hand and we put it over that. It'll be the biggest event maybe in the history of our country. All right. So let's talk about how the evening is actually going to go. First of all, you're going to spend it with us tonight over at Daily Web. And that's clear. You have to, right? I mean, it's going to be amazing. We'll spend the evening together. You will watch Michael Moles get absolutely drunk as a skunk, mostly on his own giddiness. But...

Let's talk about how this thing actually comes in. So first off, 7 p.m. Eastern, we start to get the early results as the polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. Now, the only two states in that list that actually kind of matter in terms of looking at how the election is going to come out are, of course, Georgia and Virginia. Virginia, you know, the day of voting, Republicans will start with a big lead and then Democratic votes are going to come in. It is a blue state. It is not really a purple state. Glenn Youngkin was able to sneak out a a

a solid gubernatorial victory there, but it is really not a purple state anymore, Virginia. With that said, there may be some early indicators of exactly how Republicans are going to perform if they're outperforming in a place like Virginia. Meanwhile, Georgia's votes are going to come in fairly slowly. Georgia, of course, a big swing state. I think that one is in Trump's camp. I think he's going to win that. Half an hour later, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia close.

Now, it'll be fascinating to see what happens in Ohio. If you see somebody like Bernie Moreno, who's running a very, very close race with Sherrod Brown right now, emerge with a big victory. If he starts to really clock up some numbers in Ohio, which, by the way, I kind of expect. I was out with Bernie in Ohio. He's a great candidate. The state is on fire for Trump. They're on fire for Moreno. I think Moreno takes that seat. I think Sherrod Brown goes home.

If he starts to rack up, say, not a one or two point victory, starts to rack up like a four or five, six point victory, that could be indicative of how things are going to go in some of the surrounding states, like, for example, Wisconsin and Michigan, which are, of course, in terms of proximity and constituency, relatively close.

As far as West Virginia, that, of course, the Senate seat that is going to go to the Republicans, that would be Jim Justice, who's going to win that Senate seat pretty easily. And then you get to North Carolina. North Carolina, Democrats have been pushing really, really hard. If North Carolina flips blue, Trump has a real uphill battle in winning that election. So North Carolina is going to be a real bellwether. If that one starts to go heavy Democrat early on, if, for example, high black turnout,

in some of the big cities in North Carolina. That could be indicative of good numbers for Kamala Harris in places like Philadelphia, in Pennsylvania, obviously, or Detroit and Michigan, some of the big cities. 8 p.m., you get Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. Now again, none of those states

make a huge difference in this election. There's some big ballot initiatives in Florida that I voted against three and four. And if you're voting in Florida today, by the way, vote against amendments three and four. They're both trash. Pennsylvania is, of course, the big question of the night. So this is when the polls close. Really tight race between Bob Casey and Dave McCormick. I was in Pennsylvania with Dave just last week. McCormick's a great candidate. He's been doing all the boot leather, real door knocking on the ground.

Pennsylvania is the biggest state in the country right now. So that is all closed by 8 p.m. 9 p.m. is when you get Arizona, Colorado, some Midwestern states, Wyoming, Montana. Some of these other, Montana closes at 10 p.m. Eastern. So Arizona looks as though that is going to be a walk away for Trump. We'll see how Carrie Lake does in her race against Ruben Gallego over there. Michigan also closes at 9 p.m. Eastern. Now, again, because this is closing so late, the chances that we get any results from, say, Pennsylvania and Michigan close

until early morning, because that's when the mail-ins start to be counted. Very unlikely. I think that you're most likely to start seeing some real results out of those swing states early morning on Tuesday, on Wednesday at best.

But that gives you sort of an indicator of when these polls are going to close and when those results start to be tabulated again. It just demonstrates how stupid our system is that we're going to have to wait until Wednesday, Thursday to figure out exactly who's the president of the United States at a minimum. This thing could go all the way to Saturday, depending on how close the election is and how quickly those votes are tabulated. Now,

In the late breaking moments of the campaign, there were some endorsements on both sides. So yesterday, big story was that Joe Rogan openly endorsed President Trump. That was probably going to happen. I think everybody who's been watching Joe for a while knows that was going to happen. I'm friendly with Joe, obviously. He tweeted out the great and powerful Elon Musk. If it wasn't for him, we'd be bleeped. He makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you'll hear. And I agree with him every step of the way. For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump. Enjoy the podcast.

This, of course, made some people very, very angry, but not Joe Rogan supporters, considering that, again, when it comes to Joe, it has been the Democratic Party that's been on his ass since the 2020 pandemic when they attempted to basically strong arm Spotify into deplatforming him. This is not a giant shock. Here was Donald Trump last night at a rally announcing the Joe Rogan endorsement. Oh, wow. I have some more big news, Megan. I'm just getting this right now.

So somebody that's very, very respected asked me to do his show two weeks ago, and I said, why not? And to me, it's very big because he's the biggest there is, I guess, in that world by far. Somebody said the biggest beyond anybody in a long time. And his name is Joe Rogan, and he's never done this before. And it just came over the wires that Joe Rogan just endorsed me. Is that right? Thank you, Joe. Thank you.

That's so nice. And he doesn't do that. He doesn't do that.

So, you know, obviously Trump excited about that. Why? Well, because the gender gap in this election is extremely severe. Rogan gets out male voters. Male voters are low propensity voters. Female voters in the United States are very high propensity voters. Kamala is obviously counting on big female turnout. If Trump gets male turnout, heavy male turnout, that will not have been reflected by a lot of these likely voter screens. That means Trump is likely going to win if he gets men to show up to the polls. But speaking of women.

It's not just about Joe Rogan. There were two major female endorsers of President Trump yesterday. One was more predicted than the other.

Megan Kelly actually appeared at a rally with President Trump and I think made a very solid case to women as to why they ought to vote for President Trump, whatever their particular holdups about Trump personally. We'll get to that in just one moment. First, let me tell you about the holidays, the heart of family tradition. You know, those precious moments of being together, whether you're lighting the menorah, decorating the tree, or just sharing a meal, the traditions matter. Have you thought about what happens to your family's traditions?

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Here is a trailer. November 5th.

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All righty, so be there or be square because we're going to all watch this country go up in flames or be restored to its glory together. Just join us. Just do it. It'll be a lot of fun. Meanwhile, Megyn Kelly came out with her endorsement of President Trump. She went to his rally. Now, again, this is a pretty big switch for Megyn. I mean, obviously, she's been Trump supportive a lot of this election cycle.

She's sort of shifted from a more overtly reportorial stance back in 2016 to much more opinionated and openly opinionated in 2024. Listen, I love Megan. Megan's great. Here was Megan endorsing President Trump yesterday. I hope all of you do what I did last week. Vote Trump and get 10 friends to vote Trump too. Hey, there was another endorsement yesterday that actually does matter. Okay. And that was Nikki Haley. So a couple of days ago, actually.

Sure, a piece in the Wall Street Journal endorsing Trump. Now, there are a lot of hesitant Trump voters who kind of like Nikki Haley.

They think that Nikki Haley is sort of more sober minded version of traditional Republicanism. Of course, she won a not insignificant share of the Republican primary vote when she ran against Trump in the primaries. And then she waited for a while to sort of endorse Trump. She has an entire piece in The Wall Street Journal that is titled Trump isn't perfect, but he's the better choice, which honestly, I think that's a good case for Trump. I do. I've always thought that the sort of overtly most pro Trump case does not make the appeal to swing voters.

the case that donald trump is the greatest the most loyal the best character like there are a lot of people in this country who look at donald trump but they have doubts about him that's fine that's understandable also you should vote for him and that's the case that nikki haley is making she says i don't agree with mr trump 100 of the time but i do agree with him most of the time and i disagree with miss harris nearly all the time that makes this an easy call that seems to me the best pitch for trump and that's always been the best case pitch for trump meanwhile

They're Kamala Harris's endorsers. So Kamala Harris's endorsers are just celebrities who went out there and sang their hearts out for Kamala. They're going to try and celebrity this thing all the way home. Now, again, if this is the kind of thing that gets people out to vote,

I've yet to see tremendous evidence that celebrity endorsements get people out to vote. Hillary Clinton tried the same trash by having a bunch of celebrities sing fight song for her in 2016. Didn't work out amazing for her. It feels old, honestly. It feels kind of worn. Here is a montage of various celebrities of various ilks singing for Kamala. That is a rather weathered looking Katy Perry, I believe.

That is Ricky Martin, who was last relevant in 2002. That is Xtina, Christina. If this were the year 2002, this would be a serious slate of endorsements right here. And then there's this guy. Who is this guy? Do I care? Oh, it's Bon Jovi. I should know Bon Jovi, come on. Bad one, Ben. Except I don't care about rock music, so... Bon Jovi.

Looking increasingly like Ruth Bader Ginsburg as he ages. Lady Gaga. Fresh from her giant failure in Joker 2. Oh, man. Man, she was better when she was in Asylum. Will.i.am? Wow, the Black Eyed Peas and Will.i.am? Again, lots of endorsers circa the Bush era. Feeling a little...

Are you feeling this, guys? Will.i.am. This is how fast time moves. Will.i.am is now 72 years old. So congratulations to Kamala on all those endorsements. You know, the New York Times has its final editorial. Okay, this is its editorial.

You already know Donald Trump. He is unfit to lead. Watch him. Listen to those who know him best. He tried to subvert an election and remains a threat to democracy. He helped overturn Roe with terrible consequences. Mr. Trump's corruption and lawlessness go beyond elections. It's his whole ethos. He lies without limit. If he's reelected, the GOP won't restrain him. Mr. Trump will use the government to go after opponents.

who will pursue a cruel policy of mass deportations, who will wreak havoc on the poor, the middle class, and employers. Another Trump term will damage the climate, shatter alliances, and strengthen autocrats. Americans should demand better. Vote.

OK, yeah, you know, take a chill pill, people. He was already president. That crap didn't happen. So, you know, there's that. Meanwhile, I do love the historic switch that has the Democrats loving Liz Cheney. I really am enjoying this. So Liz Cheney, it's not enough for her just to be anti-Trump. She then has to go all the way. This is the part that's astonishing to me. I understand all the arguments against Trump. I do. I get it. Also, that doesn't mean you should vote for Kamala Harris.

Kamala Harris is awful. She is a wildly progressive figure. Liz Cheney said in 2020 that Kamala Harris was a wildly left-wing figure. Now, Liz Cheney, because people have no capacity for cognitive dissonance. They

They cannot hold two thoughts at one time. Liz Cheney can't say, listen, I dislike Trump for all these reasons, but my agenda is much closer to his than it is to, instead, she has to be out there rah-rah-ing for Kamala Harris, who overtly hates everything about Liz Cheney other than her support. Here's Liz Cheney pretending that she is impressed by Kamala. Listen, if you're impressed by Kamala Harris, let me suggest that you are not particularly smart. She is not an impressive person. She's just not. I spend all day dealing with impressive people. Truly.

You should see my group chats. I deal with people who are worth billions of dollars. I deal with people who have 150 IQs. Kamala Harris does not even belong in the same conversation with those people. I deal with people who are like normal everyday people who are just virtuous family. Kamala Harris is none of these things. I don't understand. Here's Liz Cheney pretending that Kamala Harris is the repository of all goodness in the universe.

I think that for all of us, I know for me spending time with her, you know, it's been a real chance to say, wait a second, like we really need to take a step back and recognize that we share much more than divides us. And I just, you know, as I said, she is somebody when you look at her career, when you look at the extent to which she has been devoted her whole career to public service. And I am, I'm just, I'm very impressed with her.

So impressive there. Or alternatively, is it that you have the strange new respect, Liz Cheney? Because I can guarantee you one thing that wasn't happening before Liz Cheney backed Kamala Harris was members of The View saying that Liz Cheney should run the CIA or FBI. This is just amusing to me. This is super amusing to me. So the daughter of Dick Cheney, who agrees with virtually all of Dick Cheney's foreign policy proposals.

That person is the people the Democrats are now saying should run the CIA or FBI. Slow clap for the Democrats and their consistency here, guys. You're not just a bunch of political. Wow. Solid stuff here. I just feel like I would feel a lot better with you leading the

The FBI, the CIA, the NBC. And a big cheer from the view audience. My God, these people are dumb. So I'm just saying, should it be floated? Please think about it. The stupid it burns, man. It burns. That is incredible. And Liz Cheney just lapping it all up. She can be ahead of the CIA or the FBI. Give me a break. Give me a break. Now, some of the very real consequences of this election are pretty dire, actually.

So Elon Musk, he did a sort of closing appearance on Joe Rogan. He was talking about the censorship regime under old Twitter. Let's be real about this. If Donald Trump does not win the election today, Elon Musk will be on the chopping block by the left. They've been going after him anyway. He's been too outspoken. He must atone. Here is Elon Musk talking about freeing X of the heavy hand of Jack Dorsey. Old Twitter was controlled by far-left activists. Yeah. So...

And they welcomed the government interference. They got paid by the government for it. That's crazy. They got paid for their time, correct? Yeah, they got paid millions of dollars for suppressing information. So it's like bill time. And a bunch of it was like flat out illegal. Like the FBI had this sort of magic portal into the Twitter system. But all of the communication in this portal was auto-deleted after two weeks, which breaks federal FOIA laws.

So we don't even know what was said because it was all deleted after two weeks. And so, again, that is how things were run when Democrats were running it and when they had silenced Elon Musk. You think they're going to leave Musk intact? They are not. They're going to go after Elon every way they can. They already are. They already are. In fact, here was Rachel Maddow literally last night asking the federal government to target Elon Musk because he's heterodox. Even if Trump doesn't win, the Defense Department and NASA are going to need a new arrangement for all their rockets.

And for all the multibillion dollar contracts Elon Musk's companies have with the U.S. government, the U.S. government is going to have to either, I mean, unwind from all of those contracts or Elon Musk's companies are going to have to unwind from him. This is an untenable reality in national security terms.

Now that we know what we know about Elon Musk. This is insane. This is what the world will be if Kamala Harris wins. They will go after people like Elon. By the way, Trump's going to prison if he loses. And we know this for a fact. This is a thing that will happen. So if you're on the fence and you don't want Donald Trump to go to prison, then voting might be a useful thing. According to Axios, former President Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on his 34 felony convictions three weeks after Election Day.

Winning the election is effectively Trump's get out of jail free card. His legal team largely succeeded in delaying his criminal trials until after the election. If he wins, those prosecutions will likely be over for good. If he loses, he could find himself back in court. I mean, that's what a crazy circumstance. What a crazy circumstance we find ourselves in where it's win or go to jail. Meanwhile, Democrats ramping up the rhetoric. Again, I've said earlier, I don't like the rhetoric from either side.

I love what Elon does. I think Elon's done an enormous amount of good for the country. When Elon says to Joe Rogan, this will be the last election if Trump loses, I don't think that's true. I also don't think it's true when Oprah says it. Now notice the media will completely ignore Oprah saying it. Here was Oprah last night. If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible.

that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot again. So, yeah, I don't think that's true at all. And this sort of alarmism is not useful at all. It is also the reason why America is boarding up already. So it is all in the big cities. In the big cities, they're boarding up the stores. They're not doing that in case Kamala wins. They're doing that in case Trump wins. Let's be real. When Republicans riot, it's typically because there has been a sort of a focus point

of their ire for a particular reason. It can be a bad reason, but that's typically how the riots work, right? You have to call a bunch of people to Washington, D.C., and those people have to think that if they go into the Senate, they are going to be able to stop the certification of an election. That's like how a Republican riot happens. How does a Democratic riot happen? It's a Tuesday, and people find a reason to steal a TV. And that's exactly what is going to happen if Donald Trump wins.

If Donald Trump wins, that's why they're boarding up in Washington, D.C. They're not boarding up near the White House because they're deeply afraid of all the MAGA-hatted, Jussie Smollett-assaulting Republicans in Washington, D.C. We know how this is going to go. That is why people are on edge in the big cities right now is in case Trump wins. That's the story. All right, coming up, I'm going to talk about this New York Times article.

strike. It's pretty impressive what they are striking for. These are the repositories of true journalistic virtue. If you're not a member, become a member, use code Shapiro. Check out for two months free on all annual plans. Click that link in the description and join us.