cover of episode It’s Tariff Time, Again

It’s Tariff Time, Again

2024/12/2
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Ana Swanson
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Michael Barbaro
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Michael Barbaro探讨了特朗普政府和拜登政府在应对美国制造业工作岗位流失问题上的不同方法,并分析了关税政策在特朗普第一任期内的有效性。他指出,特朗普政府通过对钢铁和铝等商品征收关税来保护美国制造业,但此举也对其他行业造成了负面影响。相比之下,拜登政府则采取直接投资美国工业的方式,例如通过《芯片法案》向芯片制造商提供补贴,以促进国内芯片生产。 Ana Swanson详细分析了特朗普政府关税政策的实施情况和效果,指出关税虽然在短期内增加了美国钢铁行业的产量和利润,但也导致其他依赖钢铁和铝材的行业面临更高的成本和产量下降。她还比较了特朗普政府的关税政策与拜登政府的直接投资策略,指出两者都是保护主义的,但侧重点不同。她认为,拜登政府的直接投资策略虽然花费巨大,但可能在长期内更有效地创造就业岗位,而特朗普政府的关税政策则在政治上更受欢迎,但其经济效益有限。她还指出,这两种政策都将长期存在,并相互影响,自由贸易的时代已经结束。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Trump impose tariffs on steel and aluminum during his first term?

Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum to protect the U.S. steel industry from foreign competition, particularly from China, and to ensure national security by maintaining domestic production capabilities for military equipment.

What were the immediate consequences of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on U.S. allies?

U.S. allies like Canada and Mexico were angered by the tariffs and retaliated by imposing their own tariffs on American products, such as blue jeans, Harley Davidson motorcycles, and whiskey, hurting U.S. exporters.

Did Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum achieve their intended goal of boosting U.S. steel production?

Yes, U.S. steel production increased by $1.5 billion a year by 2021, but this came at the cost of higher prices for industries that use steel, leading to decreased production in those sectors.

How did Biden's approach to protecting American manufacturing jobs differ from Trump's?

Biden focused on direct investment in American industries through government subsidies, rather than using tariffs. He directed billions of dollars to sectors like computer chips, electric vehicles, and solar panels.

What was the primary issue with Intel, a major recipient of Biden's direct investment in the chip industry?

Intel had lost its technological edge and market dominance, missing opportunities in smartphone and AI chip markets, and had outsourced some manufacturing to Taiwan, raising questions about the effectiveness of government investment in reviving the company.

What is the current status of Biden's direct investment approach in the chip industry?

While factory construction is increasing and 115,000 jobs have been created, the full impact of these investments is yet to be seen as chip plants take years to construct and open.

How do Trump and Biden's trade policies compare in terms of job creation?

Biden's direct investment approach has created more jobs (115,000 in the chip industry) compared to Trump's tariffs, which economists say did not create many new jobs overall, but it has come at a significant cost to taxpayers.

Will Trump and Biden's trade policies coexist in the future?

Yes, many of Trump's tariffs have extended into the Biden administration, and Biden's investments will likely continue into the next Trump administration, indicating a prolonged era of protectionist trade policies.

Shownotes Transcript

Weeks before taking office, President-elect Donald J. Trump is doubling down on tariffs. Even if the threat to impose them proves to be just a negotiating tactic or bluster, it is also a gambit that has immediate consequences.

Ana Swanson, who covers trade for The Times, discusses whether tariffs worked in Mr. Trump’s first term and how they compare with the alternative approach used by President Biden.

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