Deep Dive
Why did the Harris-Walz campaign consider the race to be a margin of error contest?
The campaign saw the race as a margin of error contest because they believed it was a very close race throughout, with both candidates polling within a narrow range. They expected strong turnout and anticipated that Florida would lean redder and Virginia less so compared to 2020.
What factors contributed to the Harris-Walz campaign's inability to close the gap in the election?
Several factors contributed to the campaign's inability to close the gap: high Trump turnout in early voting, expected turnout in rural areas, lighter turnout in some areas they hoped for, and a slight drop in support in a few areas. These factors, combined with a close race, made a significant difference in a tight contest.
How did the Harris-Walz campaign define Kamala Harris to the electorate in a short time frame?
The campaign defined Kamala Harris through a convention that flipped from being built around Joe Biden to highlighting Harris's background, experience, and vision. They focused on her generational difference, non-ideological approach, and her record as a prosecutor to counter negative media information and Trump's attacks.
Why did the Harris-Walz campaign prioritize raising the stakes of a Trump second term over solely lifting up Kamala Harris?
The campaign prioritized raising the stakes of a Trump second term because Trump's first term was judged favorably by enough people to give him the election. They needed to raise concerns about his second term to win over undecided voters and independents who were dissatisfied with the current direction of the country.
How did the Harris-Walz campaign try to distance Kamala Harris from President Biden while still being part of his administration?
The campaign emphasized Harris's generational difference, her career outside of Washington, and her focus on reaching across the aisle to find common-sense solutions. They highlighted her economic policies and personal stories that reflected the needs of the electorate, aiming to show her as a new generation of leadership within the Biden administration.
Why did the Harris-Walz campaign decide not to respond directly to the trans-related ads from the Trump campaign?
The campaign decided not to respond directly to the trans-related ads because their testing showed that direct responses did not perform as well as more positive ads focusing on Harris's economic policies and future-oriented vision. They believed that responding in kind would play into Trump's hands and not effectively move the needle in a close race.
What role did the trans-related ad play in the Harris-Walz campaign's strategy, particularly concerning black voters?
The trans-related ad was targeted in Philadelphia and Atlanta, areas with significant black voter populations, to make the campaign's job harder in consolidating black male voters. While the ad did not move vote share, it did create a narrative that made reaching and consolidating these voters more difficult for the campaign.
Why did the Harris-Walz campaign invest heavily in digital and field operations despite traditional media being less effective?
The campaign invested heavily in digital and field operations to reach young people, lower propensity voters, and those who were tuned out to politics. They needed to find alternative ways to engage with voters who were not responding to traditional media, using relational organizing and empowering volunteers to speak to people in their own lives.
- The campaign saw the race as a margin of error race.
- High Trump turnout in early vote was seen as mode shifting.
- Lighter turnout in hoped-for areas made a significant difference in a close race.
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