cover of episode Election Night Cheat Sheet (feat. Steve Kornacki)

Election Night Cheat Sheet (feat. Steve Kornacki)

2024/11/3
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C
Caroline Reston
D
Dan Pfeiffer
S
Steve Kornacki
Topics
Dan Pfeiffer：对选举结果预测时间的谨慎乐观，认为可能比2020年更快，主要原因是邮寄投票数量大幅减少以及各州改进的程序和经验；关注三个关键问题：特朗普是否获得了更多黑人选民（特别是黑人男性）的支持；特朗普是否获得了更多拉丁裔选民的支持；以及民调对这些趋势的预测是否准确；宾夕法尼亚州郊区选民的投票结果将是决定选举结果的关键因素之一；建议将精力集中在努力赢得选举上，而不是在特朗普获胜的情况下如何应对；民主党有三个理由保持乐观：民主党选民的热情高涨；经济问题上的差距正在缩小；以及人口结构的变化对民主党有利。 Steve Kornacki：对民调结果的谨慎态度，认为民调显示的任何大幅变动都不值得信任，不信任民调的确定性；对民调准确性的谨慎乐观，认为特朗普的民调支持率高于以往，且选情比16年和20年更胶着，这可能是因为过去被低估的特朗普选民现在被统计在内了；即使民调出现偏差，也可能在误差范围内，选情如此胶着，最终结果很可能在民调平均值的误差范围内；分析佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州、亚利桑那州、宾夕法尼亚州和密歇根州等摇摆州选举结果的关键指标，包括特定郡县的投票结果、不同族裔选民的投票情况以及郊区选民的投票情况；对内华达州民主党前景的担忧，认为2020年的投票模式可能发生变化，早期投票结果的可预测性较低；参议院控制权的结果可能在选举后的24小时内就能确定；众议院控制权的结果可能需要数周时间才能确定，因为需要等待加利福尼亚州的计票结果。 Caroline Reston：来自外州的电话和短信对选民的影响有限，但对鼓励投票（GOTV）的电话较为有效；没有证据表明民调无法捕捉选民固有的性别歧视和种族偏见，所谓的“布拉德利效应”可能只是民调错误；虽然性别歧视和种族主义是选举中的重要因素，但没有证据表明它们会影响民调结果；建议在选举日参与志愿者活动，例如打电话给尚未投票的选民、开车送选民去投票站等；建议选举之夜多喝水，保持水分；名人背书的影响力有限，但可以提高候选人的知名度并提醒人们去投票；民主党比共和党更有趣，应该利用这一点来争取选民。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Steve Kornacki cautiously optimistic about quicker election results this time?

The volume of mail-in voting is down dramatically compared to 2020, and some states have improved their procedures.

Why does Steve Kornacki not trust overly confident predictions about election outcomes?

He believes the last two elections showed significant polling misses, making him skeptical of confident assertions.

Why might the polls be more accurate this time according to Steve Kornacki?

Trump's higher polling numbers and the race being closer than in 2016 and 2020 suggest pollsters might be capturing more Trump voters.

What is Steve Kornacki looking for in Georgia to gauge election outcomes?

He's watching the Atlanta metro area (the 'blue blob'), Cherokee and Forsyth counties, and rural counties with significant Black populations.

Why is Steve Kornacki focusing on Osceola County in Florida for insights into Latino voter trends?

Osceola County has a high concentration of Puerto Rican voters and showed significant shifts towards Trump in 2020.

What is Steve Kornacki's concern about Pennsylvania's Latino vote?

He's looking to see if Trump is making gains in areas like the Route 222 corridor, known for its fast-growing Hispanic populations.

What is Steve Kornacki's key test for Pennsylvania's suburbs?

He wants to see if Kamala Harris is beating Biden's numbers in the suburbs, which could compensate for potential losses in other groups.

What is Steve Kornacki looking for in Michigan to understand the impact of the uncommitted movement?

He's focusing on Wayne County, particularly Dearborn and Detroit, to gauge the impact of the Arab American and Muslim American populations.

Why is Steve Kornacki interested in Ozaukee County in Wisconsin?

It has moved dramatically towards Democrats and has the second-highest concentration of white college-educated voters in Wisconsin.

What is Steve Kornacki's concern about Arizona's Hispanic vote?

He's looking to see if Trump is making significant gains with Hispanic voters, which could erase Biden's narrow margin from 2020.

Chapters
Steve Kornacki discusses his preparation for election night and the factors that could affect the speed and accuracy of results, including changes in vote-by-mail procedures and the volume of early voting.
  • Steve Kornacki's preparation for election night includes taking a walk to clear his head and relying on the excitement of the event to keep him going.
  • The volume of vote-by-mail has decreased significantly compared to 2020, which could lead to quicker results.
  • Some states have changed their procedures to handle vote-by-mail better, while others have more experience with it now.

Shownotes Transcript

With just two days to go, Dan sits down with Election Night guru and NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki for a pre-election deep dive. Steve breaks down the state of the race, shares insights on key battleground states, trends among key voter groups, and which counties he's watching to signal election night outcomes. Then, Steve and Dan dig into close Senate and House races, plus some quirks in ballot-counting that could affect how quickly we get results.

 

For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here). For a transcript of this episode, please email [email protected] and include the name of the podcast.

 

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