cover of episode Election Night Cheat Sheet (feat. Steve Kornacki)

Election Night Cheat Sheet (feat. Steve Kornacki)

2024/11/3
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Key Insights

Why is Steve Kornacki cautiously optimistic about quicker election results this time?

The volume of mail-in voting is down dramatically compared to 2020, and some states have improved their procedures.

Why does Steve Kornacki not trust overly confident predictions about election outcomes?

He believes the last two elections showed significant polling misses, making him skeptical of confident assertions.

Why might the polls be more accurate this time according to Steve Kornacki?

Trump's higher polling numbers and the race being closer than in 2016 and 2020 suggest pollsters might be capturing more Trump voters.

What is Steve Kornacki looking for in Georgia to gauge election outcomes?

He's watching the Atlanta metro area (the 'blue blob'), Cherokee and Forsyth counties, and rural counties with significant Black populations.

Why is Steve Kornacki focusing on Osceola County in Florida for insights into Latino voter trends?

Osceola County has a high concentration of Puerto Rican voters and showed significant shifts towards Trump in 2020.

What is Steve Kornacki's concern about Pennsylvania's Latino vote?

He's looking to see if Trump is making gains in areas like the Route 222 corridor, known for its fast-growing Hispanic populations.

What is Steve Kornacki's key test for Pennsylvania's suburbs?

He wants to see if Kamala Harris is beating Biden's numbers in the suburbs, which could compensate for potential losses in other groups.

What is Steve Kornacki looking for in Michigan to understand the impact of the uncommitted movement?

He's focusing on Wayne County, particularly Dearborn and Detroit, to gauge the impact of the Arab American and Muslim American populations.

Why is Steve Kornacki interested in Ozaukee County in Wisconsin?

It has moved dramatically towards Democrats and has the second-highest concentration of white college-educated voters in Wisconsin.

What is Steve Kornacki's concern about Arizona's Hispanic vote?

He's looking to see if Trump is making significant gains with Hispanic voters, which could erase Biden's narrow margin from 2020.

Chapters

Steve Kornacki discusses his preparation for election night and the factors that could affect the speed and accuracy of results, including changes in vote-by-mail procedures and the volume of early voting.
  • Steve Kornacki's preparation for election night includes taking a walk to clear his head and relying on the excitement of the event to keep him going.
  • The volume of vote-by-mail has decreased significantly compared to 2020, which could lead to quicker results.
  • Some states have changed their procedures to handle vote-by-mail better, while others have more experience with it now.

Shownotes Transcript

With just two days to go, Dan sits down with Election Night guru and NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki for a pre-election deep dive. Steve breaks down the state of the race, shares insights on key battleground states, trends among key voter groups, and which counties he's watching to signal election night outcomes. Then, Steve and Dan dig into close Senate and House races, plus some quirks in ballot-counting that could affect how quickly we get results.

 

For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here). For a transcript of this episode, please email [email protected] and include the name of the podcast.

 

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