cover of episode What’s Next for TikTok After Court Upholds U.S. Ban

What’s Next for TikTok After Court Upholds U.S. Ban

2024/12/6
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Jacob Gershman
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James Mackintosh
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Justin Lahart
Topics
Justin Lahart认为,美国就业市场强劲反弹,这可能意味着美联储会再次降息。他分析了飓风和波音罢工对十月就业数据的影响,并指出除非下周通胀报告显示恶化,否则美联储很可能会降息。他还提到移民数量的减少可能会影响明年的就业增长,大幅减少的净移民数量将严重限制就业增长。 Jacob Gershman报道了美国联邦上诉法院的裁决,该裁决大大限制了TikTok的法律途径,使其面临被禁的风险。他指出,TikTok在美国继续运营的选项非常有限,可能需要出售TikTok或依靠特朗普政府的干预。 James Mackintosh分析了当前股市估值过高的问题,指出历史上估值与下一年的回报之间没有联系,股市泡沫难以预测。他认为,人工智能的热潮、特朗普政府的放松管制以及减税预期等因素可能会推高股价,但市场也面临各种风险,任何负面因素都可能导致市场波动。他强调判断股市是否被高估以及是否进入泡沫区域非常困难,如果未来的利润增长能够达到预期,那么目前的股价可能并非高估。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the U.S. federal appeals court uphold the ban on TikTok?

The court ruled that Congress can take action to protect U.S. interests, upholding a federal law requiring TikTok to shut down its operations due to its Chinese ownership.

What are the potential options for TikTok to continue operating in the U.S.?

TikTok can either sell off the app or rely on intervention by incoming President Donald Trump, though it's unclear what Trump could do to block the ban.

How did the U.S. labor market perform in November?

The U.S. added 227,000 jobs in November, a bounce back from the impacts of hurricanes and the Boeing strike in October.

What is the expected impact of the November jobs report on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision?

The Fed is likely to cut rates again, as the jobs report was fully expected and there were no significant distortionary effects from October.

What factors could influence the stock market's performance in 2025?

Factors include AI excitement, deregulation under a Trump administration, tax cuts, and the strong U.S. economy attracting international investors.

Are current stock valuations a concern for long-term market performance?

Historically, high valuations have not been linked to next year's returns, but they could indicate a bubble that may pop in the future.

What was the reaction of the U.S. markets to the November jobs report?

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to set new records, rising 0.25% and 0.8% respectively, while the Dow fell 0.25%.

Why did Romania cancel its presidential election?

The election was canceled due to allegations of Russian influence, with intelligence reports suggesting a pro-Russian candidate was helped by an internet scheme from Moscow.

Chapters
The U.S. added 227,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations. Economist Justin Lahart discusses the implications for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision, considering factors like the recovery from hurricanes and the Boeing strike. He also highlights the uncertainty surrounding the impact of immigration on future job growth.
  • 227,000 jobs added in November
  • Stronger than expected job growth
  • Fed likely to cut rates again
  • Uncertainty about immigration's impact on future job growth

Shownotes Transcript

P.M. Edition for Dec. 6. WSJ reporter Jacob Gershman) explains why TikTok has few options) after a U.S. federal appeals court paved the way for a ban. And the U.S. added more than 227,000 jobs) in November. Journal economics reporter Justin Lahart) explains what that could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate-cut decision. Plus, the three major indexes have been riding high) this year. Senior markets columnist James Mackintosh) tells us what markets might look like in 2025. Tracie Hunte hosts.

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