cover of episode U.S. Presidency, House and Senate Up for Grabs as a Divided Nation Votes

U.S. Presidency, House and Senate Up for Grabs as a Divided Nation Votes

2024/11/5
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(新闻报道)
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Dante Cheney
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Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
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Kamala Harris
第一位非裔女性和第一位亚裔美国人担任美国副总统,曾任加利福尼亚州检察总长和美国参议员。
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Katie Stetsch-Ferrick
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Sam Goldfarb
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Siobhan Hughes
Topics
Donald Trump: 特朗普在选举日当天对选举结果表示非常自信,并认为共和党选民的投票积极性很高。他认为共和党在本次选举中占据领先优势。 Kamala Harris: 哈里斯认为本次选举是美国未来发展方向的转折点,她所代表的愿景是专注于进步、创新,并投资于美国人民的梦想和抱负。她强调了与对手在国家未来发展方向上的不同立场。 Siobhan Hughes: 休斯分析了参议院选举的形势,认为共和党在选举地图上占据优势,拥有更多机会赢得席位。但她同时也指出,民主党仍然存在获胜的可能性,并且参议院选举结果与总统选举结果密切相关,尤其是在宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州、密歇根州和俄亥俄州等战场州。 Katie Stetsch-Ferrick: 施泰奇-费里克指出,众议院选举的关键州是纽约州和加利福尼亚州,其中一些共和党议员的席位面临挑战。她分析了这些州的选举形势,并特别提到了纽约州两年前选举结果的意外性以及加州选民对哈里斯的热情可能对共和党候选人造成的影响。 Sam Goldfarb: 戈德法布分析了市场对选举结果的反应,指出债券市场走势暗示特朗普可能获胜,因为投资者认为在他执政下联邦预算赤字可能会增加。他还分析了其他市场,例如比特币、美元和股票市场对选举结果的不同反应,以及不同行业受选举结果影响的差异。 Jack Gillum: 吉勒姆解释了美联社如何预测选举结果,强调了人工记录投票数据、与县级网站数据交叉验证以及使用分析模型等步骤,以确保结果的准确性。他指出,这是一个缓慢而谨慎的过程,旨在保证结果的可靠性。 Dante Cheney: 切尼解释了他选择关注七个具有代表性的县来分析选举结果的原因,这些县代表了不同的选民群体,例如老年人、富裕郊区居民、农村黑人选民、农村白人选民、蓝领郊区选民、大城市选民和大学生等。他认为,关注这些县的投票结果,比关注传统的摇摆州和县更能反映出选民的真实意图,因为选民正在发生从一个政党到另一个政党的转变。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is this presidential election considered one of the most surprising ever?

The election is marked by a realignment where voters are shifting from one party to another, making the composition of the electorate uncertain.

What are the key issues that dominated the presidential campaign?

Abortion, immigration, and inflation were the main talking points for both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

How did the candidates express their confidence on Election Day?

Trump felt very confident, citing a big lead, while Harris focused on progress and innovation in her vision for America.

What issues were reported at polling sites on Election Day?

Russia was accused of bomb threats, and there were long waits and scanner malfunctions in some locations.

What are the main Senate races to watch?

Republicans have more pickup opportunities, especially in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.

Which House races are considered crucial?

Races in New York and California are key, particularly for vulnerable Republicans and freshmen lawmakers.

How did the stock market react to the election?

Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin increased, and the dollar strengthened, partly due to expectations of a Trump win.

What are the potential impacts of different election outcomes on the market?

A Trump win could boost certain sectors like banks and crypto, while a Harris win might benefit clean energy stocks.

How does the Associated Press determine election results?

AP reporters manually record vote counts, compare them with county data, and use modeling to assess the likelihood of a candidate's victory.

Which counties are being closely watched for election clues?

Hernando, Cobb, Anson, Fayette, Macomb, Milwaukee, and Travis counties represent different slices of the electorate, offering insights into voter behavior.

Chapters
The 2024 presidential election is marked by key issues such as abortion, immigration, and inflation, with both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, casting their votes and preparing for election night.
  • Abortion, immigration, and inflation are major talking points.
  • Trump voted in Palm Beach, Florida, expressing confidence in his chances.
  • Harris voted by mail in California, emphasizing her vision for America's future.

Shownotes Transcript

P.M. Edition for Nov. 5. A closer look at what could be the most surprising presidential election ever. WSJ reporters Siobhan Hughes) and Katy Stech Ferek) tell us about the U.S. Senate) and House) races to watch. Dante Chinni) explains how votes in seven counties might offer some clues to the election result). Plus, markets reporter Sam Goldfarb) discusses how the markets moved as the ballots rolled in. Tracie Hunte hosts.

Here’s our hour-by-hour guide to Election Day).

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