The Voters Who Can Make or Break the Election
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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are making one last push before Election Day, and they're targeting a particular kind of undecided voter. They're not necessarily undecided on who they would vote for. They're undecided on whether they're going to vote. And why the Venezuelan community in the U.S. is not happy with the new immigrant arrivals from Venezuela. Plus, Western officials say they believe Russia plans an attack targeting U.S.-bound planes.

It's Monday, November 4th. I'm Tracy Hunt for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. ♪

The U.S. presidential election is almost here, and the candidates are spending their final hours on the campaign trail. Vice President Kamala Harris today is making several stops across Pennsylvania, which is seen as a must-win state for her. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump held a rally in North Carolina and is also headed to Pennsylvania and Michigan.

And while more than 78 million people have already voted, there's one group that's still not sure whether they want to vote at all.

Estimates vary, but strategists say these occasional voters, those who sometimes cast ballots and sometimes skip elections, account for more than 25 percent of the voter pool. By contrast, Wall Street Journal polling finds that only 3 percent of registered voters are truly undecided on a choice of candidate.

Joining us now to talk about the effort to nail down these elusive voters is Wall Street Journal reporter Aaron Zittner. So, Aaron, other than the fact that they don't always make it to the polls, what else do we know about occasional voters? Well, the thing to keep in mind is that about a third of the electorate is different each year. And that's because so many people vote.

don't vote in every election. Only about half of the electorate vote every time. And the campaigns don't have to talk to them. They're going to vote whether the campaigns send them an email or a piece of literature in the mail or not. It's the other half. And they fall into several groups.

So there are these different buckets of people who show different levels of consistency in their voting behavior, but they're a very big group. And here's the thing about them, Tracy. Almost all of them have a preference of one party or the other. They lean. They're not necessarily undecided on who they would vote for. They're undecided on whether they're going to vote. So if the campaigns can figure out which ones lean toward their candidate,

That's the group that they're going to try to get out in the last few days. How significant is their potential effect on this election? Oh, it's huge. In some ways, it's the whole ballgame. If the only people who vote are the habitual voters, they show up every time, then Kamala Harris is likely to win. Our polling consistently showed that the people who voted in all four of the last elections, the last two midterms, the last two presidentials, they leaned Democratic by four, five or even 10 points.

They're about half the electorate. And again, Kamala Harris is ahead in our most recent poll by four points.

That means that the other half of the electorate, the irregular occasional voters, that's where Donald Trump has to go fishing to make up that four-point deficit that he has from the regular voters. And some of those pools of occasional voters are very Trumpy, especially the people who have been old enough to vote in the last four elections, but maybe have only voted once or twice. If they can come out, they favor Trump by 10 or 12 points. And how often...

And how are the campaigns motivating these groups? Well, one thing that we see pretty clearly is that the more habitual voters get their news from the legacy media, broadcast TV, cable TV and newspapers and now podcasts. The more irregular you get, the less people have voting as a behavior, the more they tend to be online. And the young people, of course, are massively online.

So what the campaigns are doing, one, they're reaching these people not necessarily through cable and broadcast ads, but through digital. They're doing things like buying targeted ads to, let's say, irregular voting black men by buying NFL Sunday ticket as broadcast over YouTube in certain heavily black zip codes.

So it's a lot of streaming video as opposed to cable TV and a lot of digital outreach. Aaron Zittner is a reporter and editor for The Wall Street Journal. Thank you so much, Aaron. Good to be with you, Tracy.

In U.S. markets, stocks edge lower with elements of the so-called Trump trade appearing to falter ahead of tomorrow's election. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3 percent, while the Dow retreated 0.6 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite edged down 0.3 percent.

Treasury yields declined with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note falling to about 4.31%. Yields have climbed as investors bet on a growing federal budget deficit, with many predicting a particularly large gap if Republicans win the White House and Congress and cut taxes. The dollar, a perceived beneficiary of a Trump win, slipped today. The WSJ dollar index declined about 0.4%.

At the same time, shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Donald Trump's Truth Social Network, rallied. Some investors cautioned against reading too much into the day's moves. Coming up, we'll have more election news. And Russia is suspected of plotting to send fire-starting devices on planes bound for North America. ♪

I'm Jimmy Veilkind from the Wall Street Journal, and I'm hitting the road again for a new series on the election, looking at how big campaign arguments are playing out on the ground. Like, how's the economy shaping people's thoughts? My daughter went a lot further when Trump was in there. And how is Kamala Harris's sudden rise being received? She's already proven herself to be a formidable opponent for Trump. Join me for the ride.

Look for a Chasing the Vote in the Wall Street Journal's What's News feed. Immigration has been a top concern among voters this election. And in Miami, there's one group that's been particularly upset about new arrivals from Venezuela. Affluent, more established Venezuelans.

Border crossings into the U.S. by Venezuelan migrants have soared in recent years. Federal data shows about 50,000 apprehensions and other encounters involving Venezuelans in the 2021 fiscal year versus more than six times that in the fiscal year that ended this past September.

The Wall Street Journal's Miami-based reporter, Arian Campo Flores, wrote about the rift forming between Venezuelans who arrived in the U.S. long ago and newer, poorer migrants. And he joins me now.

Arian, what's behind this divide? The earlier wave of people who came to the U.S. tended to be highly educated professionals, business owners, the wealthy and the upper middle class who were fleeing what they considered was growing authoritarianism and economic problems in Venezuela.

As the economy has continued to worsen in Venezuela, the character of the migrants has changed and eventually came to encompass a lot of middle-class people and then eventually some of the poorest migrants.

So there's sort of a class divide in the community that has developed over time, and that has bred some of this mistrust and resentment between these two groups of migrants. So what are they saying? What I heard from some of those who had come in these earliest waves is that they're very proud of what they've been able to accomplish in the U.S., and they're very grateful to the opportunities they've gotten here. And their view, a lot of times, of those in the most recent wave is,

is sometimes one of sadness. They see just the level of desperation and the kind of extreme poverty that they're fleeing, but also a wariness of that group of the newcomers and that they come here expecting things to be handed to them.

And so that generates a real wariness and even opposition to the situation at the border. Ariane Campo-Flores is a reporter based in Miami. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. My pleasure.

Security experts say that although voting machines can't be hacked because they aren't connected to the Internet, cybercriminals see the U.S. presidential elections as a huge opportunity to gain infamy and profits by hacking networks, deploying ransomware, and taking down websites. WSJ reporter Belle Lin spoke to our Tech News Briefing podcast about the threats at hand.

Criminals are really financially motivated individuals. And so that means that they are looking to score a kind of jackpot. In this case, the election is a prime target for them because there is just as much sort of valuable data to be held up for ransom or sold for profit on the dark web. So when we talk about cyber criminals, we're usually referring to people with financial motivations, but sometimes also ideological. So

In the case of the presidential election, they could be individuals who are trying to further some social or political cause. I talked to a former defense intelligence analyst who dubbed the election a sort of Super Bowl for cyber criminals because it's an incredibly serious and high profile event, not just for our nation, but also for cyber attackers who see it as an opportunity to really make a name for themselves.

And you can hear more about those cyber threats and what's being done to counter them in tomorrow's Tech News Briefing podcast. Stepping away from election coverage, we have two exclusive reports for you. First, Western security officials say they believe two incendiary devices shipped via DHL were part of a covert Russian operation that aimed to start fires aboard cargo and passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs back in July, one in Germany, another in England. According to security officials and people familiar with the matter, investigators concluded the devices were part of a wider Russian plot because of how they were made. Security officials say the packages were a test run to see how such devices could be placed on North America-bound planes.

Russia has been suspected of an expanding sabotage campaign aimed at Washington and its allies. Polish authorities say they've arrested four people in connection with the fires and charged them with participating in sabotage or terrorist operations on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency. Poland is working with other countries to find at least two more suspects. The Kremlin spokesman said officials there haven't heard of any official accusations about Russia's involvement and

and called the accusations, quote, unsubstantiated insinuations from the media. And the U.S. semiconductor industry is moving to cut Chinese companies from supply chains. According to people familiar with the matter, chip toolmakers like Applied Materials and Lam Research are telling suppliers that they need to find alternatives to certain components obtained from China or risk losing their vendor status.

The two Silicon Valley companies make equipment used in the production of microprocessors and are among the world's biggest manufacturers of these tools. The move was spurred by directives from Washington seeking to suppress China's involvement in sensitive next-generation technology.

Lam Research said it obeys U.S. expert controls for companies in the chip manufacturing supply chain. Applied Materials said it identifies alternative sources for components to make sure they are available.

And that's what's news for this Monday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Anthony Bansi and Pierre Bien-Aimé with supervising producer Michael Cosmitas. I'm Tracy Hunt for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening. ♪