cover of episode The ‘Trump Trade’ Takes Hold on Wall Street

The ‘Trump Trade’ Takes Hold on Wall Street

2024/10/30
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约翰·保尔森:如果当选总统,将大幅削减联邦支出,并与马斯克合作,取消《通胀削减法案》中对可再生能源和碳捕获等项目的补贴。他公开表示有意担任财政部长,并预测参议院确认过程将顺利进行。 亚历克斯·弗朗戈斯:保尔森公开表达削减开支和撤销补贴的意愿,这不同寻常。他公开谈论自己成为财政部长的可能性,这在通常情况下是不常见的。 凯特琳·麦凯布:市场上出现了明显的“特朗普交易”,各种资产类别都显示出这一趋势。对共和党友好的股票(如私人监狱股票、加密相关公司股票和银行股票)本月表现强劲,而特朗普的Truth Social母公司股票(DJT)更是飙升。对冲基金经理和资产管理公司正在调整投资组合,以从特朗普的潜在政策中获益。他们正在押注美元走强、长期国债收益率上升以及通胀预期上升。此外,他们还在墨西哥比索市场上进行押注,看跌该货币,因为特朗普曾表示可能对来自墨西哥的汽车征收200%的关税。这些押注可能反映了对特朗普胜选的预测,也可能是出于害怕错失良机(FOMO)。许多对冲基金经理虽然押注特朗普胜选,但通常会进行对冲,以降低风险。 丹·加拉格尔:AMD虽然第三季度销售额大幅增长,但未能超出华尔街预期,投资者可能期望更多。AMD在AI处理器领域与Nvidia相比,仍处于劣势,能否超越Nvidia是一个担忧。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are some investors positioning themselves to profit from a Trump victory?

Investors are sensing a shift in election momentum and are backing trades that could pay off under a Trump administration.

What are some examples of stocks performing well due to a potential Trump victory?

Private prison stocks, crypto-related companies, bank stocks, and the parent company of Trump's Truth Social platform (DJT) have seen significant gains.

Who is leading the shift in market positioning for a Trump victory?

A mix of retail investors and sophisticated hedge fund managers are driving the shift.

What are some of the bond market strategies being used by investors anticipating a Trump win?

Investors are positioning for a stronger dollar, curve steepeners, and wider inflation break-evens.

Why are investors betting against the Mexican peso?

Trump's threat to impose 200% tariffs on vehicles from Mexico has led to significant hedge fund activity against the peso.

Are these market shifts a strong indicator of a Trump victory?

No, they reflect a mix of FOMO and hedging strategies rather than a strong predictive signal.

What did John Paulson promise in an exclusive interview if he becomes Treasury Secretary?

Paulson pledged to slash federal spending, particularly cutting subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and work with Elon Musk on trade and energy.

Why are AMD investors concerned despite the company meeting Wall Street's targets?

Investors are worried AMD is far from catching up to Nvidia in the AI chip market, despite strong initial sales.

Chapters
Billionaire investor John Paulson discusses potential massive spending cuts and policy changes if he were to become Treasury Secretary in a second Trump administration.
  • John Paulson pledges to slash federal spending and roll back subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • He expresses openness to working with Elon Musk on trade and energy policies.
  • Paulson's potential appointment highlights a shift in momentum on Wall Street towards a Trump victory.

Shownotes Transcript

A.M. Edition for Oct. 30. To pollsters, the race for the White House is a toss up. But WSJ reporter Caitlin McCabe) explains that a potential shift in momentum is visible in markets) as some large hedge funds and money managers get into position to profit from a Trump victory. Plus, billionaire investor and Trump ally John Paulson promises massive spending cuts) if he’s tapped as Treasury Secretary. And AMD investors worry the chipmaker is still a long way from catching up to Nvidia).

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