The Drug Fueling War, Crime and All-Night Parties in the Middle East
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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump try to pull ahead in a neck-and-neck presidential race. It's pretty striking that only eight days left, like we haven't gotten any clearer view of which states are going to decide the election. And a U.S. missile shortage raises concerns about the country's military readiness.

Plus, why an amphetamine-like drug could threaten the stability of America's Mideast allies. It's Monday, October 28th. I'm Traci Hunt for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. With just over a week left, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains essentially tied. ♪

Harris today stumped in Michigan while Trump, fresh off his Madison Square Garden rally, headed to Georgia. Joining us now to give us the latest is Ben Pershing, politics editor for The Wall Street Journal. Ben, starting off, according to the University of Florida's election lab, so far more than 43 million Americans have already voted, including today President Biden. What do we know, if anything, about these early voters? Ben Pershing

It's a good question and something that both parties are watching closely. We know, obviously, these are the people who are most energized and interested in voting. They're people who have been courted by both sides and encouraged to vote early. We know that more women than men have voted early, but that's also been the case in past elections. So it doesn't necessarily signal anything. We also know that a lot more Republicans are voting early this cycle than they did last time.

which could be a real sign of Republican enthusiasm, but it also could just be a sign that these are people who would have voted on Election Day, and instead they're just deciding to vote early this time. As we mentioned earlier, Harris is in Michigan and Trump is in Georgia. What are we hearing from them?

So we've heard Harris making a broad argument about why she's the best candidate, and she's really going to try to put a bow on that on Tuesday. She's going to speak at the Ellipse here in Washington, D.C., near the National Mall. It's a symbolically important site near the White House. It also happens to be where Trump spoke on January 6th, 2021, before the riot at the Capitol. So it's pretty clear that Harris is sending a signal here about the idea that Trump is unsuited for office, partly because they think he's a threat to democracy.

She'll also talk about the economy and other issues. But we do expect her to spend some time on Tuesday really driving this democracy theme home. Trump has been focused, I think, on the idea that Harris is simply too liberal and that she has had three and a half years to fix what ails America, particularly to get the economy in the right shape, and that she does not have a prescription for change. She's more of the same.

The other thing that I just think is really interesting with a week left is that the map has gotten bigger for this election, not smaller. You know, a lot of times you would think at this point the two candidates would really be narrowing their targets down to a very small handful of states. But all seven of the swing states we started with are still completely in play. And it's going to mean that the race is going to be a lot more dramatic because we don't know where to look. Ben Pershing is the politics editor for The Wall Street Journal. Thank you so much, Ben. Thank you.

The U.S. is running low on some types of air defense missiles, raising questions about the Pentagon's readiness to respond to ongoing wars in the Middle East and Europe and a potential conflict in the Pacific. Interceptors are fast becoming the most sought-after ordnance during the widening crisis in the Middle East, as Israel and other U.S. allies face an increasing threat from missiles and drones fired by Iran and the militias it supports.

Journal national security reporter Nancy Youssef joins us now. Nancy, why is it so important to the U.S. that this missile stock has been decreasing so rapidly? Remember that the U.S. has said that it would come to Israel's defense if it came under attack. And so it has positioned its ships. It's also put a THAAD, which is a system on the ground that brings down missiles. And in some cases, the United States is launching multiple ones,

to make sure that they bring the missile down. And at the same time, you have a production rate, because they're so sophisticated, you can only make a few hundred a year. And there are 14 other allies that also buy them. So it's very hard to replenish your stocks when you're going through that many missiles in a quick period. Now, to be fair, the U.S. isn't bringing down all those missiles. Israel brings down the majority of them. But when you have a sudden surge of such an expensive kind of artillery,

It's hard to replenish quickly. So what is being done to replace them and can that happen in time? So the Secretary of the Navy went on Capitol Hill and said he's pushing industry to make them faster. There's also the U.S. effort to reach to smaller companies who do things sort of as an alternative to these kinds of missiles that are cheaper, potentially forms of artillery to bring down missiles.

There are contracts that are being adjusted. There are investments in future forms of this technology, which is cheaper. But then I think ultimately what we saw in terms of one way was this targets that were hit by Israel on Iran. They targeted ballistic missile factories that were the productions that is Israel went after their interceptors. So it kind of gives you a sense of how important this capability is in this current conflict.

That was Journal National Security Reporter Nancy Youssef. Coming up, the drug that helps fuel conflicts and parties in the Middle East. That's after the break. This message comes from Wall Street Journal sponsor C3AI.

C3 Generative AI enables rapid access to secure, traceable, hallucination-free insights from enterprise systems, all while using any LLM, helping enterprises turn the invisible into the obvious. Learn more at c3.ai. This is Enterprise AI.

There's an illicit drug in the Middle East that experts say is fueling war, crime, and all-night parties. It's called Captagon, an amphetamine-like drug that's taken off across the region. Money from drug smugglers has lined the pockets of Hezbollah, which has spent vast amounts of its proceeds on weapons to fight Israel.

Officials and researchers say much of the production of Captagon happens in Syria. Syria has denied any involvement in the drug trade. And U.S. officials are increasingly worried that the Captagon trade is undermining decades of relative stability in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, crucial American allies. Joining us now is Wall Street Journal reporter Sunai Rasmussen. Sunai, first of all, what are the U.S.'s worries regarding Captagon?

So the U.S. has two main concerns here. One is that the profits from Capitagon helps keep the Assad regime in power. As you know, the Assad regime has maintained a stranglehold on Syria since the public uprising began in 2011 during the Arab Spring and during a civil war in that country.

And Assad is a key ally of Iran and Hezbollah and other anti-American forces in the region. But they're also concerned that the drug smuggling brings with it a whole host of other problems. In this case, both U.S. and regional officials are concerned that the networks that traffic Capitagon will also smuggle weapons, for example, through Jordan into the Palestinian West Bank. So it's kind of a multi-pronged threat to stability in the region.

And how does it play into the current war situation in the Middle East?

Well, Hezbollah, that is one of the warring parties here in Lebanon. The Lebanese militia is one of the groups that help both protect Captagon facilities in Syria, but also help traffic the drug out of the country. To the extent that Captagon is still being smuggled out through the Middle East during the current conflict, it helps fuel the war effort of Hezbollah. So in that sense, continued drug trafficking in the Middle East continues.

is also one of the factors that keeps fighting going in this region. What are the drug societal effects in Saudi Arabia and Jordan? So Captagon is being used across the Middle East. It's a little bit like speed. So it is ingested in pill form. It kind of cuts across both class and across borders. So it's being used by everyone from students in Saudi Arabia who are studying for exams to

Saudi royals, Gulf royals, truck drivers in Jordan, Uber drivers who want to stay up late to work shifts, militia fighters in Syria and Iraq who use the drug to induce courage on the battlefield, kind of similar to what soldiers did in Europe in the first and the second World War. I was just talking to Sona Rasmussen, a security correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. Thank you so much, Sona. Thanks for having me, Tracey.

In U.S. markets, this will be a jam-packed earnings week for big tech. Alphabet is scheduled to report tomorrow following the next day by Microsoft and Meta Platforms. Apple and Amazon are on tap Thursday. Today, all three main indexes advance. The Dow rose about 0.6% or 273 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both rose about 0.3%.

And finally, it's a big week for earnings reports. And if you could travel forward in time to see those earnings reports and then make investment decisions, you'd probably cash in, right?

Well, it might be trickier than you think. The money manager, Elm Wealth, recently created something called the Crystal Ball Trading Game. Players were given $1 million in play money and shown 15 front pages from past issues of none other than the Wall Street Journal. Then they made investments. More than 8,000 people played. After 15 rounds, their median ending wealth was down more than $300,000.

Spencer Jacob is global editor of the Heard on the Street column. He says the results of this experiment can teach us a thing or two about how markets and investors work. If you're an economist who regularly is pretty accurate, you can guarantee yourself a pretty cushy job on Wall Street. But here's the thing. You had all these people who were pretty smart making bets on it, and they lost money. What it tells you is that people, they're very emotional.

They move in crowds even during a given day. For example, you'll have a Federal Reserve press conference after interest rates are changed and markets may be way, way up on cut in rates. And then Jerome Powell will speak and then stocks will plunge during his speech, just hinging off of some word or some feeling they got from him. And then sometimes the markets will reverse again during the very same trading day. So it almost has an element of randomness to it.

So even though you know what seems like this critical piece of information, you have not been able to make money off it. And you can try your hand at the crystal ball trading game. There's a link to it in Spencer's article, which you can find in our show notes. And that's what's news for this Monday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bien-Aimé with supervising producer Michael Cosmitas. I'm Tracy Hunt for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

This message comes from Wall Street Journal sponsor C3.ai. C3 generative AI enables rapid access to secure, traceable, hallucination-free insights from enterprise systems, all while using any LLM, helping enterprises turn the invisible into the obvious. Learn more at C3.ai. This is Enterprise AI.