Israel Risks a Quagmire in Widening Lebanon War
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In a secret message meant to cool tensions, Tehran told Washington it wouldn't try to assassinate Donald Trump.

Plus, Israel pushes deeper into Lebanon in a risky gambit that could earn it diplomatic leverage. The Israelis are actually, they do want to get a ceasefire as soon as possible in Lebanon. And if they can frame that, by the way, as a gift to Trump, well, then they will. And opposition to Trump's controversial pick for attorney general, Matt Gaetz, mounts among Senate Republicans.

It's Friday, November 15th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. We begin in the Middle East as Israeli troops push further into southern Lebanon, widening the country's fight against Hezbollah.

Some former senior security officials worry the expansion of the campaign could spark a war of attrition. However, senior Israeli and American officials have separately expressed optimism over U.S. efforts to broker an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, saying that a deal could be within reach before Donald Trump takes office. And joining me now with an update on what's unfolding is journal correspondent Dov Lieber in Tel Aviv.

Dov, it's been more than a month since Israel began its ground operation in Lebanon. How is that campaign evolving? From the Israeli point of view, they're very happy with their progress there. They've managed to, in the last month and a half, really clear out a lot of what Hezbollah had built along its border, but also along the way has raised large swaths of villages along the Lebanese border.

border, Israel has said they've killed over 2,000 Hezbollah operatives just in the last month and a half in southern Lebanon. But the issue for the Israelis is that it doesn't solve their strategic problem, which is that there's no ceasefire.

And this is partly why they're expanding the campaign. They're hoping that the more they continue the military pressure as they negotiate for a ceasefire, the more likely they are to get the conditions that they want. Though, Dov, as you write, this tactic doesn't come without risks.

This is the issue because Israel's ultimate goal to make it safe for Israelis to go back to northern Israel, it's not that it's vague, but without a ceasefire, the way to get there is unclear. And if Hezbollah simply does not agree to a ceasefire, Israel continues this equation where it increases military pressure. Well, then that kind of scenario can happen.

see the Israelis pushing deeper and deeper into Lebanon and get sucked in. And suddenly they find themselves where they don't want to be, which is very deep in Lebanon, fighting a guerrilla campaign against Hezbollah. I mean, from your reporting, it sounds like you're getting mixed messages a bit from officials on whether this is an escalation that's going to spark a really protracted conflict or maybe just an attempt by Israel to quickly gain some leverage in near-term ceasefire talks. Am I getting that dichotomy correctly? Absolutely.

At this point in time, it's not even clear what Israel's goals are because we just heard from the new Israeli defense minister, Yisrael Katz.

He seemed to have added a brand new goal to the campaign in Lebanon, which is to completely disarm Hezbollah. And as he was saying, Israel would not relent. It would not agree to a ceasefire until it achieved all its goals. And he added to those goals, disarming Hezbollah. And the chief of staff sitting right next to him did a little double take, looked right at him. He looked incredibly confused because that's not supposed to be the goal, completely disarming Hezbollah. But that may become the goal.

And that is a very different one and one that would take a lot more time

So there's just a bit of confusion about what the Israelis are really trying to achieve in Lebanon right now. I mean, Dov, can I jump in? I mean, the timing you attribute partially to the shift in defense ministers, but I have to ask, is it possible the coming change in U.S. administrations could be guiding Israeli thinking at all here, emboldening them, whether it's in Lebanon or perhaps on other of their military campaigns and aspirations? Yes, the incoming Trump administration is certainly emboldening the Israelis.

But in terms of a ceasefire in Lebanon itself, both the Israeli government and the Israeli security establishment want a ceasefire as soon as possible. I hear it from all different parts of Israeli society, the government, the military, because the thing is, Hezbollah is probably in the weakest state it's ever been. Almost all of its leadership has been killed.

It's unable to really put up a serious fight against Israel. Now it's carrying out this guerrilla campaign. But the issue is over time, it will reconstitute. It will regain its strength and Israel will lose the window where it can gain the maximum leverage over Hezbollah in terms of ceasefire talks. The only issue that they aren't relenting on is who will enforce the ceasefire. So Israel is pushing for it to be able to enforce the ceasefire itself, meaning it will have the right to

to carry out attacks inside Lebanon, either on the ground or from the air, if it sees Hezbollah coming close to its border. So we're actually still at a deadlock because of this enforcement issue

But the Israelis are actually they do want to get a ceasefire as soon as possible in Lebanon. And if they can frame that, by the way, as a gift to Trump, well, then they will, because Trump is obviously angling to be the person who is stopping the wars and not starting new ones. I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal correspondent Dov Lieber in Tel Aviv. Dov, appreciate the updates as always. Thank you so much. Thank you for having me, Luke.

And speaking of U.S. foreign policy in the region, we are exclusively reporting that Iran and the U.S. exchanged secret messages last month in which Tehran sought to assure Washington it wouldn't seek to kill then Republican candidate Donald Trump.

That written assurance came after the Biden administration warned Iran in September against attempts at Trump's life, after federal prosecutors in August charged a Pakistani man with ties to Iran with plotting to kill him. Justice Department officials have described ongoing attempts by Tehran to target Trump. Iran has long vowed revenge against the now president-elect for his decision to order the 2020 killing of one of its key military leaders, Qasem Soleimani.

Iran has dismissed claims it was trying to assassinate Trump, with its foreign minister calling the allegations third-rate comedy. Coming up, Donald Trump's pick for attorney general could face stiff resistance. Plus, China's economy picks up, but still needs help. We've got those stories and more after the break.

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As we reported yesterday evening, Donald Trump is facing an increasingly uphill battle to get his controversial pick for Attorney General, Matt Gaetz, confirmed by Senate Republicans. According to people familiar with discussions within the caucus, more than three and potentially more than a dozen GOP senators oppose his nomination, and there is already talk of trying to convince Trump to pull Gaetz or get Gaetz to voluntarily withdraw his name.

Republicans will soon control the chamber 53 to 47 and can only afford three defections, assuming all Democrats would vote against Gates. Top senators from both parties said yesterday they want to see the results of a long-running House Ethics Committee investigation into whether Gates engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, and that his background will be closely scrutinized. Gates has denied all wrongdoing.

Senators also indicated that they won't cede any of their power over nominees, brushing back Trump on his demand that they allow recess appointments that would let him bypass the Senate to install Gaetz or other picks for up to two years.

Meanwhile, Trump yesterday named his criminal defense attorney Todd Blanch as his nominee for deputy attorney general, a role that's become increasingly high profile given Gates' lack of Justice Department experience and uncertain path to confirmation. And filling yet another cabinet position for his fast-building administration, Trump said he would nominate North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as interior secretary.

The wealthy red state governor competed for the GOP nomination, but dropped out and backed Trump before the first primary votes were cast. Fresh UK GDP figures show the British economy grew just 0.1% in the third quarter, a reading that Dow Jones Newswire's economics editor Paul Hannon told me lagged expectations. The slowdown in the UK economy was sharper than expected.

And the outlook is pretty uncertain. On the one hand, the incoming UK government announced a budget that has measures that most economists expect will accelerate growth next year. But then on the other hand, you have headwinds from what's happening on the trade front. And that's largely because nobody really knows how far Donald Trump will go with the tariffs that he has said he intends to impose next.

The UK is not a big manufacturing economy. It doesn't make a lot of things, which is where the tariffs would mostly fall. It exports a lot of services to the US. And so far, there's no talk of those sort of exports being hit. So tariffs would have an impact on the UK, but they would have less of an impact than on some of the bigger factory economies of Europe. And?

And I asked Paul about the economic projections that we just got from the EU about precisely that. So the European Commission this morning issued a new set of forecasts, the first since Trump was elected. And it's warning that a new wave of protectionism could have a significant impact on the European economy. But

It depends very much on what your speciality is. So Germany, with a lot of factories exporting cars to the US, would be hit harder than Spain, which is less of a kind of manufacturing-oriented economy and depends more on US tourists. And nobody is suggesting that anybody's going to stop Americans visiting Spain anytime soon.

Germany's central bank has warned that U.S. tariffs could cost the country some 1% of its GDP, though some economists suggest that a higher dollar could boost demand for European goods, outweighing the hit from higher duties. And in other news investors will have their eye on today, China's economy is showing signs of improvement following a raft of growth-friendly policies from Beijing.

New data today showed retail sales ticking higher in October and investment in buildings, equipment and other fixed assets remaining steady.

Industrial production slowed slightly in October, however, while the real estate sector remained in a deep slump. Mainland Chinese stocks slipped following the data releases. Though most economists think China is back on track to meet the government's goal of around 5% growth this year, they are warning that Beijing will need to do more to counter a possible trade war with the U.S. following Trump's re-election.

Japan's economic growth, meanwhile, slowed slightly in the third quarter, according to preliminary government data, even as consumption in the country continued to recover. Economists still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in the short term, following less cautious comments from the bank's governor last month and recent weakness in the yen, which raises import costs.

And U.S. retail sales and industrial production data for October are due out today, with both readings potentially affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. And that's it for What's News for Friday morning. Today's show was produced by Kate Boulivant and Daniel Bach, with supervising producer Christina Rocca, and I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Otherwise, have a great weekend, and thanks for listening. ♪

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