cover of episode If Abortion Access Wins on the Ballot, Will Democrats?

If Abortion Access Wins on the Ballot, Will Democrats?

2024/11/4
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WSJ What’s News

Key Insights

Why are abortion rights supporters likely to win in several states on the ballot?

Polling data and fundraising data indicate strong support for abortion rights measures, with supporters outraising opponents by significant margins in some states.

How has the issue of abortion influenced the presidential race?

Abortion has become a key issue, particularly for female voters, with Kamala Harris heavily emphasizing it and using female surrogates to appeal to this demographic.

What are the key states to watch for abortion-related ballot measures?

Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri, and South Dakota are critical states where the outcomes could significantly impact abortion access and political dynamics.

How do anti-abortion candidates and activists plan to counter the pro-abortion rights momentum?

They are attempting to frame the measures as extreme and unlawful, but face challenges in getting widespread support from Republican leaders.

What are the potential implications of a Trump presidency on abortion access?

Trump could potentially roll back access to mail-order abortion pills, which would significantly impact access across the country, even without a full ban.

What is the significance of Florida's abortion measure in the broader context?

Florida had one of the highest numbers of abortions before its six-week ban, and restoring access could shift the landscape significantly, especially in the South.

How has fundraising influenced the abortion rights ballot measures?

Pro-abortion rights groups have outraised their opponents by a significant margin, suggesting strong financial backing and momentum.

What is the potential long-term impact of these ballot measures on abortion access?

If successful, these measures could reshape abortion access in the U.S., particularly in conservative states, making it more difficult for strict abortion laws to be passed.

Chapters

The podcast discusses the potential impact of abortion rights measures on the ballot and whether they can translate to wins for Democrats in other races.
  • Ten states are set to vote on abortion rights measures.
  • Polling and fundraising data suggest abortion rights supporters are likely to win.
  • The issue of abortion is intertwined with the presidential race, but not necessarily in a straightforward manner.

Shownotes Transcript

Church's original recipe is back. You can never go wrong with original. Still tastes the same like back in the day. Right now, get two pieces of chicken starting at only $2.99 or 10 pieces starting at only $10.99. Church's. Offer valid at participating locations. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris pin their hopes on different groups as they make their final pitches in swing states.

Plus, why victories for abortion rights supporters tomorrow is no guarantee of a blue wave. This is going to be a referendum on that question, whether abortion can not just win ballot measure races, but whether it can deliver Democrats other races up and down the ballot. What we've discovered is there's a bit of an independent streak in the American electorate. And oil prices rise after Iran warns of a stronger response to Israel's latest attack.

It's Monday, November 4th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are making their final push for votes today ahead of Tuesday's election, with Harris concentrating her focus on Pennsylvania with three rallies across the state, while Trump visits Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan.

Journal reporter Michelle Hackman says that in a race defined by a stark gender gap, Trump is pinning his hopes on disaffected men, while Harris is doing the same with particularly moderate and independent female voters. Gender has become one of the most defining features of this election, to the point where your gender is probably more predictive than almost any other factor of whether you're going to vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

The campaigns know that. Obviously, for women, one of the big reasons is abortion and sort of the landscape after Roe v. overturned. And you see Kamala Harris talking constantly about abortion. You also see her bringing out all these female surrogates, people like Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, but also celebrities that appeal to women like Lady Gaga and Oprah.

Trump has cultivated his appeal among men throughout the campaign, attending a sneaker convention and an ultimate fighting championship event, and along with his running mate J.D. Vance, appearing on Joe Rogan's podcast. A final NBC News national poll shows Trump winning men by 18 percentage points and Harris winning women by 16. That leaves the contest tied overall. However, young men in particular vote at far lower rates than many other demographic groups.

Meanwhile, both campaigns are projecting confidence that they've successfully addressed voters' chief concerns about the candidates in an election that has seen both face historic headwinds.

Journal-White House reporter Ken Thomas says that for Harris, that's come via persistent negativity about the direction of the country, with roughly six in 10 voters saying the nation is on the wrong track. And then there's the economy. It's a strong economy overall, but it has been a liability for Harris as voters complain about inflation during Biden's term and higher costs.

For Donald Trump, he still has high personal unfavorability ratings, and the public has a very firm opinion of him for good or bad. And he has made a number of off-script remarks in the final days, some incendiary that has complicated his closing message to voters. All of that makes it harder for him to find new voters and grow his coalition.

Harris's advisors feel the vice president has been able to close the gap with Trump on the economy, especially on making the case that she has a plan to deal with higher costs on housing and groceries and childcare. Trump's team, meanwhile, believes that job approval is the key metric here.

Trump's job performance in the White House is now viewed more favorably than it was at the end of his administration. And Harris's job performance is more in line with Biden's. And as law enforcement officials confront an array of election-related threats from foreign operatives to lone wolf attackers, we report that the far-right Proud Boys, key instigators of the January 6th Capitol riot, have regrouped after the imprisonment of many members and top leaders.

Ahead of Election Day, chapters have gathered across state lines, talked about watching polls, and signaled that they're ready for violence following a vote some predict will be rigged, amplifying election cheating claims made by Trump or his allies.

The FBI and Department of Homeland Security have warned state and local officials that solo extremists or small groups could mobilize for violence between Election Day and the inauguration. And the federal government is already planning dramatically increased security for this January 6th when Congress meets to certify election results. ♪

Turning to what's happening in markets now, Brent crude futures are up more than 2% this morning on the prospect of escalating tension in the Middle East. According to a journal exclusive published yesterday, Iran is signaling that its response to Israel's October 26th attack will be strong and complex, involving more powerful warheads and other weapons.

Western officials say they believe Iranian leaders are debating whether and how they should respond to Israel's airstrike last month, which damaged Tehran's strategic air defenses, leaving it badly exposed.

Looking ahead, tomorrow's presidential election is likely to be the week's biggest event for global markets, but there are a few other things on the calendar. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, with central bank decisions also due in the UK and Australia. And a week-long meeting of China's top legislative body kicks off today, with markets hoping for the announcement of a blockbuster fiscal package.

And in business news, TGI Fridays has filed for bankruptcy protection, citing a problematic capital structure and fallout from the pandemic that's seen its U.S. sales decline for years. According to a court filing, the restaurant chain has lined up a loan to provide funding as it pursues the filing. All of the chain's franchise operations stayed out of the bankruptcy.

And Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has slashed its Apple position once more. According to the conglomerate's third quarter report, it sold about 25 percent of the Apple shares it held at the start of the period, though it still holds almost $70 billion of the iPhone maker's stock. Apple has been a major bet for Berkshire, but over the past year, the company has been cutting its position, even as Buffett continues to praise the tech giant.

Coming up, the presidential race may be tied, but voters from Missouri to Montana are poised to hand abortion rights groups a major victory tomorrow. The journal's Laura Casisto breaks down how that could reshape abortion access in the U.S. after the break.

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With so much focus on the presidential race, it can be easy to forget there's a lot more on the ballot tomorrow in many states, especially on the issue of abortion. And if polling data holds true, the journal's Laura Casisto reports that abortion rights supporters could emerge as tomorrow's big winners. Laura, we've got, what, 10 state ballot measures relating to abortion coming up tomorrow. Whereabouts are those going to be and what are we expecting to see? So the

So these are spread across a variety of states, certainly some of them in liberal states, but some in some really critical conservative independent leaning states. So Florida is going to be a very big one for access. Arizona and Nevada, very important for the sort of political stakes in those places. And then also I would say Missouri and South Dakota have been on my list of ones to watch because those are just some very conservative states where it would be very notable if these were to pass.

Laura, polling data, it sounds like, indicates these measures are likely to be successful, perhaps right across the board. Is that right?

Yes. I mean, with the caveat that polling data in these quite local races, not the most accurate in the world. But another thing that we have that gives us some suggestion of where the winds may be headed is fundraising data. We're seeing the abortion rights side out fundraising their opponents by six to one in some places. In Florida, they've raised more than $100 million. And that suggests to us also that they've got momentum and certainly resources on their side.

Laura, if polls are correct, would it be the case that pretty much everywhere abortion's been on the ballot since Roe, abortion rights supporters have emerged victorious? And what does that signify? Yeah, so absolutely. So far, they have won all seven races where abortion has been on the ballot since Roe was overturned. And what I would say is the broader takeaway from that is

Certainly that abortion opponents and Republicans just underestimated the popular opposition to abortion restrictions. And I think also underestimated that their opponents would use this as a tactic to override conservative legislatures. A good example was in Ohio last year.

Ohio, you had Republican majorities in both chambers of the legislature. You had a Republican governor. You had a conservative-leaning state. And voters there pretty overwhelmingly passed an abortion rights measure that has made it impossible for them to pass strict abortion measures in that state. Just taking this back to the presidential race for a second, Laura, how closely intertwined is this issue with who you end up voting for at the top of the ticket?

This is going to be really kind of a referendum on that question, whether abortion cannot just win ballot measure races, but whether it can deliver Democrats other races up and down the ballot, Congress, the White House. We have spoken with voters in places like Arizona who say, I'm going to vote for the ballot measure, but Trump has said this is a state's rights issue and I believe him. And so I'm going to vote for access in my state and I'm going to vote for Trump. So it's not going to be one to one. But the question is, how many of those voters can Democrats pull in?

I wanted to ask, Laura, how anti-abortion candidates are treating this issue, given the strong overlap between it and the political parties. Are we seeing, for instance, the Republican Party maybe trying to message on this issue in a way to stop getting maybe swept across the board here? Yeah, so I'll kind of divide it into two groups. Certainly, you have the anti-abortion activists who are doing their best to get out a message that these measures are extreme, unlawful.

that they would allow abortion in their view throughout pregnancy. A frustration that they have is that you don't have a large number of Republicans getting on board with that. You do have some. You see Ron DeSantis in Florida. He's called the measure there very extreme. You see it some places, whereas Democrats are trumpeting this issue around the country. Factually speaking, Laura, what would these measures do? Would they allow abortion throughout pregnancy, barring very specific cases?

So factually speaking, most of these measures would allow abortion broadly through viability, which is about halfway through a typical pregnancy. They do generally have exceptions for the life or health of a pregnant woman. And it really just depends on what your argument is about how broadly those exceptions would be interpreted. And as for the GOP's messaging, Trump has said, as you mentioned, this is broadly a state's issue and promised...

to veto a national abortion ban. But are we hearing from critics that there's a risk he would change his mind were he to get elected? Yeah, I mean, I think from both critics and honestly from anti-abortion supporters, there's a hope on their side and a fear on the other side that if he gets into the White House, he will do more than he has talked about on the campaign trail. A really good example would be a

relatively modest policy change would be to roll back access to mail order abortion pills, but that would have seismic effects on access throughout the country because being able to order a pill online without seeing a doctor has been a huge part of why access has been preserved. So there are things like that that you can imagine him doing that are maybe not as dramatic as a ban, but could have dramatic effects on access.

And finally, Laura, so a very busy day for abortion measures on the ballot tomorrow. Is this likely to be the last big tranche of states to weigh in on this issue on the ballot post-Roe? Yeah. So, I mean, I think the answer to that in part is just never say never. There are states I can think of where they narrowly miss getting a measure on the ballot now and they could try again. But I can't imagine a scenario where we have the stakes be as high as they are now, particularly with Florida.

Florida had, prior to its six-week ban, one of the highest numbers of abortion of any states in the country. The loss of significant access in Florida has really shifted the landscape to a place where there's very, very little access in the South. And so having Florida come back online, that would be a big shift in terms of what we're seeing.

I've been speaking to Wall Street Journal reporter Laura Casisto. Laura, thank you so much. Thanks very much. And that's it for What's News for Monday morning. Today's show was produced by Daniel Bach and Kate Bullivant with supervising producer Christina Rocca. And I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.