cover of episode How Trump’s Agenda Could Fare in Congress

How Trump’s Agenda Could Fare in Congress

2024/12/11
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Dylan Tokar
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Luke Vargas
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Siobhan Hughes
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卢克·瓦格斯:本期节目讨论了特朗普政府的计划,包括任命新的联邦贸易委员会主席、加快大型建设项目的审批以及其他政策。这些计划能否获得国会的支持,以及共和党内部在这些问题上的分歧,是本节讨论的重点。 杰森·米勒:特朗普政府将致力于大幅削减监管,以吸引国内外投资。这将有助于美国经济的增长,并创造更多的就业机会。 斯科特·帕特森:近年来,华盛顿对许可改革的支持逐渐获得两党共识。一些环保组织支持许可改革,因为他们认为过度的监管阻碍了清洁能源项目的建设。 Siobhan Hughes:共和党在众议院的多数席位非常微弱,这将使特朗普政府的议程面临挑战。共和党内部在对乌克兰战争、关税和税收改革等问题上存在分歧。边境安全将是共和党领导层最优先关注的问题,这可能会导致两党联盟的出现。 Dylan Tokar:服装公司正在使用同位素测试技术来追踪其产品的来源,以确保其供应链符合人权和环保标准。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did General Motors decide to scrap its Cruise Robotaxi program?

GM scrapped the program after nearly a decade and $10 billion in development, citing rising competition and the high costs and time needed to scale the business.

What is Donald Trump's plan for speeding up approvals for large construction projects?

Trump plans to expedite approvals and permits, including environmental approvals, for any person or company investing $1 billion or more in the U.S.

How does the Republican majority in the House and Senate affect Trump's agenda?

The Republican majority is very slim, with a 220 to 215 margin in the House, meaning they can lose no more than two votes to pass their agenda.

What are some potential bipartisan issues in Trump's agenda?

Permitting reform for large projects has garnered bipartisan support, and there could be alliances on issues like clean energy projects and certain tax reforms.

What is the main priority for Republican leaders in Congress?

Border security is the top priority, with a focus on mass deportation and installing walls, which differs from previous bipartisan approaches.

How does Trump's approach to border security differ from past bipartisan efforts?

Trump wants mass deportation and walls, which is more aggressive than the bipartisan deals that focused on immigration reform and border security measures.

What is the significance of isotopic testing in supply chains?

Isotopic testing helps companies like Shein and Patagonia identify the origin of materials, ensuring compliance with laws like the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which bans goods from Xinjiang due to forced labor concerns.

What is the current status of GM's ownership in Cruise?

GM owns about 90% of Cruise and plans to buy out the remaining investors, combining Cruise and GM's tech teams to focus on autonomous and assisted driving.

What challenges could Trump face in implementing his permitting reform plan?

Legal challenges, the need for congressional approval, and potential court battles could complicate Trump's efforts to bypass permitting and environmental rules.

What is the expected impact of the 2017 Trump tax cuts on the upcoming tax reform?

The 2017 tax cuts expire at the end of 2025, and while some elements may gain bipartisan support, cuts aimed at businesses or the wealthy could face opposition due to their cost and impact on the deficit.

Chapters
President-elect Trump's appointments of Andrew Ferguson as FTC chair and Mark Medder as a commissioner signal a potential shift in the agency's approach to mergers and tech companies. Ferguson's views on tech companies and antitrust are discussed, along with Medder's background and potential impact on the commission’s balance of power.
  • Andrew Ferguson appointed FTC chair, succeeding Lina Khan
  • Mark Medder nominated as FTC commissioner
  • Potential shift in FTC approach to mergers and tech companies

Shownotes Transcript

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How is AI pushing the boundaries of what's possible, not just in the way we live and work, but in addressing some of humanity's toughest challenges? Find out in the latest episode of AI That Means Business, a new podcast from Google and custom content from WSJ.

Trump's vision for the FTC begins to take shape. Plus, congressional reporter Siobhan Hughes on how much of the president-elect's agenda is likely to survive the GOP's narrow majorities in the House and Senate. If you thought Republican control in the House in the 118th Congress was slim, wait until you get to the next Congress. And the end of the road for GM's costly robo-taxi program. It's not just the

It's Wednesday, December 11th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world.

President-elect Donald Trump says he'll elevate Republican lawyer Andrew Ferguson to lead the Federal Trade Commission. Ferguson, already an FTC commissioner, won't need Senate approval to assume the role, where he would succeed Lina Khan, who flexed the commission's enforcement muscle by challenging mergers and the business practices of dominant companies.

Ferguson is likely to abandon that approach to mergers, but shares Khan's skepticism of tech companies, posting on X yesterday that he would work to, quote, end big tech's vendetta against competition and free speech. Separately, Trump says he'll nominate antitrust lawyer Mark Medder to be an FTC commissioner, and if confirmed, he would give the GOP a majority on the commission.

Meador is a former aide to Utah Republican Senator Mike Lee, who led the introduction of legislation to break up Google. Meanwhile, Trump is promising to speed approval of large construction projects, signaling that he intends to push the limits of federal law to boost the economy.

Posting on Truth Social, Trump said that any person or company investing a billion dollars or more in the U.S., quote, will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including but in no way limited to all environmental approvals.

At the Journal's CEO Council Summit in Washington, Trump senior advisor Jason Miller described the president-elect as pursuing a golden age of regulation cutting. Whether it be domestic investors, whether it be foreign investors. And so what you're going to see is the president saying, coming up with creative ideas like this to say, if you want to, whether it's money here in the U.S., you want to bring in money, he's going to move heaven and earth to get that money in the door and get it invested in the United States.

It's not clear Trump will have legal authority to bypass permitting and environmental rules and state and local oversight, court battles, and a need for congressional approval could complicate the push.

But Journal reporter Scott Patterson says permitting changes have begun to garner bipartisan support in Washington in recent years. You had environmental groups who derided the statement as an indication that Trump was in the back pocket of the fossil fuel industry. On the other hand, there is a perspective among environmental groups or clean energy backers who are in favor of

permitting reform and some kinds of environmental reform because they see overbearing regulations as keeping essential clean energy projects from getting built in the United States. And you know this includes mines for critical minerals and battery minerals such as lithium as well as big transmission projects like power lines.

General Motors is scrapping its Cruise Robotaxi program after nearly a decade and $10 billion in development, citing rising competition and the time and costs needed to scale the business. GM said that it owns about 90% of Cruise and intends to buy out the remaining investors while combining Cruise and GM's tech teams into a single effort to advance autonomous and assisted driving. GM shares are up in off-hours trading.

A judge has rejected the auction sale of conspiracy platform InfoWars to satirical news outlet The Onion. InfoWars was put up for sale as part of a bankruptcy case stemming from the nearly $1.5 billion that courts have ordered founder Alex Jones to pay in damages to families of Sandy Hook victims after he falsely called the 2012 school shooting a hoax.

In a post on X, the Onion's CEO said the company was disappointed with the decision but would continue to pursue the purchase of InfoWars. It's said it plans to relaunch InfoWars as a satirical site. And in news likely to move markets today, investors are getting ready to scour November's U.S. inflation report, which is due at 8.30 a.m. Eastern. Economists polled by the journal expect to see a second consecutive month of modest price upticks.

And retailer Macy's is set to report earnings this morning, with results from software company Adobe due after the closing bell. Coming up, as Donald Trump's future agenda takes shape, how much of that can Congress deliver, especially given the GOP's razor-thin majority in the House? We've got that story and more after the break. This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort.

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Well, we heard earlier in the show about some of what the incoming Trump administration is hoping to achieve, a decent amount of which will require congressional backing. So how likely are they to get that support? Reporter Siobhan Hughes covers Congress out of our D.C. bureau.

Siobhan, first off, House results from California took a while to come in after Election Day, but we've now got a complete picture of the Republican majorities in both the House and the Senate, if I understand correctly. What kind of margins in both chambers can we expect the Trump White House to be able to count on here?

Well, if you thought Republican control in the House in the 118th Congress was slim, wait until you get to the next Congress. Right now, it's shaping up to be a 220 to 215 Republican majority. So that means House Republicans can lose no more than two votes and still pass their agenda, assuming everybody shows up and Democrats vote against the Republican line.

Well, super tight math there, Siobhan, and it will get even closer, right? 217 to 215 for a few months because of resignations. Well, that's a piece of it. Now, in fairness, the Republicans have been pretty careful to put forward only members who are from safe districts. So, for example, Mike Waltz, who's going to the Trump administration, could

comes from a place that will be a safe Republican place. But it also shows you why Trump probably can't pick folks from the House anymore. That is going to be a losing proposition for his party. OK, so Republicans overall vote majority pretty tight, and that's obviously an important factor. But so, too, are ideological divisions within the caucus. Are there some obvious issues heading into this administration on which we might see disagreements emerge?

among Republicans on Capitol Hill? Well, there are some unresolved tensions within the Republican Party. For example, the war in Ukraine. There is still a very pro-Ukraine contingent in the Republican Party. And the question is whether or not their influence is going to be entirely stamped out. And then on the issue of tariffs, there are still plenty of Republicans who are concerned about the damage to the economy, the inflationary impact from Trump's tariff plans. And

And so that has yet to be really worked through. Let's take some other issues that have dollars and cents attached to them. Tax reform, a big priority for Republicans going into the next Congress. What are we expecting to see there? And could that possibly be something that gets some bipartisan support?

Well, so tax reform is going to be complicated. The 2017 Trump tax cuts, as you know, expire at the end of 2025. But a portion of those tax cuts are things that Democrats are going to like, too. And so to some degree, Democrats might be willing to play ball.

The problem is going to be any tax cuts aimed at businesses or the wealthy, for example, that corporate tax cut, along with the fact that the tax cuts are expected to cost money, expected to add to the country's deficit. And since the government already spent $1.8 trillion more than it collected in fiscal 2024, that's going to be a problem. Beyond taxes, Siobhan, are there other issues where we might see problems?

possible bipartisan consensus. There can be some weird left-right alliances that crop up. So for example, somebody like a Bernie Sanders might not necessarily be so pro-armed forces and pro-wars, which really brings him into alliance with

the Trump wing of the party. There's also an interesting small debate I'm following on the issue of Ozembic. There are some Republicans who think the government should be investing money in Ozembic, arguing that the health benefits are so great it would actually end up saving the government money. But they align with Democrats on that, but not necessarily with their fellow Republicans. So they're going to be really, really interesting alliances like that.

And then what overall seems to be the top priority for Republican leaders in both chambers? Really, border security is going to be a focal point. And I cannot tell you what a big sea change this is from where the Republicans were in 2017 when they were gunning both to cut taxes and to eliminate the Affordable Care Act.

The fact that you have somebody like Lindsey Graham saying border security is going to come before extending the tax cuts tells you what a brand new world we are in, which, of course, carries risks, because if you spend all of your time on immigration, is there going to be enough time left to extend those tax cuts before they expire at the end of next year? And just when we're talking about immigration efforts in Congress, are we talking about the kind of things that were in that bipartisan deal that that just didn't

make it through Congress in the past year or something entirely different, maybe more of a Republican wish list as opposed to something with bipartisan support? Well, Trump has a very different idea regarding the border in that he wants mass deportation. He wants to expel immigrants and he wants to install walls. And that's

far different from the approach the Democrats have been interested in. And so that is part of the reason that Republicans are talking about moving their border agenda, not through the normal process that requires a supermajority in the Senate, but through this fast track, muscular approach that allows you to get around the need for a supermajority. Siobhan Hughes covers Congress out of The Wall Street Journal's Washington Bureau. Siobhan, thanks so much as always. Thank you. Thank you.

And finally, clothing companies long under pressure to cut out suppliers tied to human rights and environmental abuses are using an old technology to help them shore up supply chains.

Journal reporter Dylan Tokar says that Shein and Patagonia are among the brands turning to isotopic testing, a forensic method that allows them to peer into the atomic makeup of materials in their products and hopefully pinpoint their origin. Since 2021, we've had this law in the U.S. called the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which essentially bans goods from the Xinjiang region of China on the presumption that they were made using forced labor.

We've been told that Xi'an, which started doing this testing in 2022, initially found that 2% of the tests were positive for Xinjiang cotton. And that since taking action against some suppliers, they've had that number fall to 1.7%.

That's a fairly modest improvement, but it's not just companies doing this. U.S. customs officials have also started using isotopic testing. So there's the very real possibility that if companies aren't doing this themselves, someone else will. And that's it for What's News for Wednesday morning. Today's show was produced by Kate Boulivant and Daniel Bach with supervising producer Christina Rocca. And I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.

Thank you.