Can Betting Markets Predict the U.S. Presidential Election?
2024/11/1
WSJ What’s News
(
(主持人)
A
Alexander Osipovich
J
Jimmy Vielkind
J
Justin Lahart
Justin Lahart: 10月份美国新增就业岗位数量仅为12000个，远低于预期的100000个，这表明经济增长正在放缓。尽管如此，失业率仍保持在4.1%的低位。就业增长放缓的原因是多方面的，包括人口增长放缓、人口老龄化以及移民数量减少。就业增长过快可能导致工资增长加速，从而影响美联储降息的计划。飓风和波音罢工等因素也扭曲了10月份的就业数据，美联储对此有所预期，并认为未来几个月难以准确评估经济状况。
Deep Dive
Why did U.S. job growth slow in October?
Hurricanes and the Boeing strike reduced available workers.
How might the Fed's decision on interest rates be influenced by the recent job report?
The Fed may still cut rates by a quarter point despite the slowdown.
Why are betting markets considered more accurate than polls in predicting elections?
They often reflect collective wisdom and have fewer anomalies.
Why did a large trader's bets on Trump affect the betting market odds?
The $30 million in bets shifted the odds significantly.
Why is immigration a significant issue in Pennsylvania's election?
Demographics have shifted, and Republicans emphasize the topic.
What is Iran's response to Israel's recent attack?
Iran is signaling a possible retaliatory strike.
The episode discusses the accuracy of betting markets versus polls in predicting the U.S. presidential election, highlighting historical successes and failures.
- Betting markets often take cues from polls.
- A large trader influenced Trump's odds on PolyMarket.
- Critics question the demographic bias of betting market users.
Shownotes Transcript